Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.”

- Thomas Paine

“The woman of the future, who is really being born today, will be a woman completely free of guilt for creating and for self- development. She will be a woman in harmony with her own strength, not necessarily called masculine or eccentric or something unnatural. I imagine she will be very tranquil about her strength and her serenity, a woman who will know how to talk to children and to the men who sometimes fear her… So that is my first image — she is not aggressive, she is serene, she is sure, she is confident, she is able to develop her skills, she is able to ask for space for herself.”

- Anais Nin

"I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am sorry for him and wish to lighten his load by all means possible ... except by getting off his back."

- Leo Tolstoy

1. DPRK Armed Forces Show No Mercy: KCNA Commentary

2. North Korean missile food fight

3. Don’t Judge a Book by Its Cover: North Korea’s HS-18 Is Not a Russian ICBM

4. North Korea warns of ‘thermo-nuclear war’ due to US-ROK drills, Camp David deals

5. S. Korea says Fukushima release plan has no scientific, technical problems

6. N. Korea intends to launch satellite between Aug. 24 and 31: Kyodo

7. S. Korea calls on N. Korea to abandon plan to launch satellite

8. N. Korea's Kim scolds premier for 'irresponsible' attitude over flood damage

9. N. Korean airliner arrives in Beijing in 1st post-COVID-19 commercial flight

10. Yoon: We will see more robust trilateral security cooperation system

11. Korea granted regular visits to IAEA office in Fukushima

12. Sustainability matters at Camp David

13. American Soldier Detained in North Korea Poses Unusually Challenging Test for U.S.

14. Yoon: Ulchi to Include 1st Training against N. Korea’s Nuclear Threats

15. [ANALYSIS] Timing of North Korea's satellite launch suggests growing impatience of its leader

1. DPRK Armed Forces Show No Mercy: KCNA Commentary

The Kim regime's response to the start of Ulchi Freedom Shield. Some of the finest over the top rhetoric only the Propaganda and Agitation Department can produce.

DPRK Armed Forces Show No Mercy: KCNA Commentary

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1692658175-728988879/dprk-armed-forces-show-no-mercy-kcna-commentary/

Date: 22/08/2023 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source

Pyongyang, August 22 (KCNA) -- An unprecedented large-scale thermonuclear war is approaching the Korean Peninsula every moment as reality.

On Aug. 21, the U.S. and the south Korean puppet group started the largest-ever joint military drill "Ulji Freedom Shield" despite our repeated warnings.

The nuclear war drill with huge aggression forces involved will last until Aug. 31. The U.S. mobilized in the drill not only war hardware and troops deployed in the operational area of the Korean Peninsula but also space forces in its mainland for the first time in history.

Such U.S. nuclear strategic assets are expected to be hurled into the drill as a nuclear carrier, a nuclear submarine, B-1B and B-52H.

The aggressive character of the drill is becoming ever more conspicuous as even the war criminal states such as Australia, Canada, France, Britain, Greece, Italy, New Zealand and the Philippines, which entered the last Korean War under the cloak of "UN forces", are participating in the drill.

In this period, the U.S. and other hostile forces are going to wage over 30 joint field maneuvers and other exercises for an actual war to invade the north in all the operation areas, including ground, sea, air and space.

The bosses of the U.S., Japan and the south Korean puppet group met at the Camp David Resort near Washington on Aug. 18 to detail, plan and formulate the nuclear war provocation on the Korean Peninsula. And the drill is being staged for carrying out the agreements even before the ink of agreed documents is dry so the gravity of the situation is further amplified.

If the agreements fabricated at the Camp David Resort are additionally put into practice in the war drill involving human and material resources of the U.S. and other hostile forces and even the vassal forces, the possibility of outbreak of a thermonuclear war on the Korean peninsula will become more realistic.

All the facts go to prove that the danger of the "Ulji Freedom Shield" joint military drill with all possible war resources involved can never be covered up with the words "annual" and "defensive".

It is as clear as noonday that the war rehearsal, daubed with such bellicose rhetoric as "occupation", "annihilation", "decapitation" and "scorched earth" and staged on the "largest scale and content in history", is targeting the DPRK.

The prevailing situation requires the Korean People's Army to take the initiative, offensive and overwhelming action for a war.

The will to punish the hostile forces threatening the sovereignty of our state and the right to existence of our people for decades is waiting for a moment of percussion.

The armed forces of the DPRK will wait for the time. -0-

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.8.22.)

2. North Korean missile food fight

A "cat fight " among Korea watchers?

North Korean missile food fight

By ALEXANDER WARD, MATT BERG and ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL 08/21/2023 04:00 PM EDT

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/21/north-korean-missile-food-fight-00112102

A February 2023 television broadcast with an image of a North Korean military parade held in Pyongyang to mark the 75th founding anniversary of its armed forces, is pictured at a railway station in Seoul, South Korea. | Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

With help from Daniel Lippman

Ever been caught between two people fighting? NatSec Daily knows the feeling.

Last week, MIT’s THEODORE POSTOL argued that North Korea’s Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile exists because Russia handed over technology from its own Topol designs to Pyongyang, which if true would reveal a stunning and unprecedented level of partnership. “This particular ICBM could not possibly have come into the hands of the North Koreans without the full support and cooperation of the Russian government,” he wrote for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The piece immediately drew criticism. The Middlebury Institute of International Studies’ JEFFREY LEWIS detailed to NatSec Daily what he said were the inaccuracies: “The missiles are similar in size but not the same. The Hwasong-18 first stage is longer and the third stage [section] is probably totally different. The guidance system is not Russian, it may be Chinese. Then what Postol calls a decoy canister is the second stage.”

NatSec Daily asked Postol to respond to Lewis’ criticisms, and he was none too pleased. He replied via email not only to Alex, but also to Lewis, CSIS Korea chair VICTOR CHA (who boosted Postol’s findings and an NBC report on it) and the New York Times’ DAVID SANGER. Postol asserted that Lewis “misrepresented himself to the press on numerous occasions as a technical expert on missiles” — though he’s been immensely helpful to us and others in the press on technical matters — and provided no evidence to counter the original piece.

(You can read the whole email for yourself as Lewis posted it on X.)

Then it got personal. “I am genuinely sorry for how embarrassing this will prove for you,” Lewis replied, leading Postol to shoot back: “you seem to have no technical details to support your claims.” Lewis then said that he and his colleagues were drafting such a rebuttal. “You can wait until then,” he wrote.

That analysis by Lewis and seven colleagues came out Sunday. It’s wonky — all of this is — but in summary the group concludes that, while there are some similarities, all the available evidence “exclude[s] the possibility that Russia transferred a complete ICBM system.”

We’re not missile experts here at NatSec Daily, so we’ll leave others to address the most technical details. So far, we’ve seen more in support of Lewis et al. than Postol.

“The HS-18 is not a Russian ICBM, nor is it ‘nearly identical’ to one. It also is highly unlikely that Russia deliberately provided substantial ICBM technology. Most probably, North Korea developed the HS-18 on its own,” VANN VAN DIEPEN, formerly a senior nonproliferation official at the State Department, wrote in 38 North on Monday. He adds that while Pyongyang’s weapon does look like Russian Topols, it “also resembles the U.S. Minuteman-III.”

(Some experts recalled that Postol coauthored a paper questioning Syria’s use of chemical weapons in the deadly 2017 attack on Khan Sheikhoun. He told us “I am absolutely sure that my analysis of that matter is correct,” and suggested after that Syrian rebels, not BASHAR AL-ASSAD’s government, were responsible for the 2013 chemical weapons attack on Ghouta. Today, on the 10-year anniversary of that strike, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said “the Assad regime launched rockets carrying the deadly nerve agent sarin into the Ghouta district of Damascus, killing more than 1,400 people.”)

The back and forth between Lewis and Postol — which includes more emails than the ones Lewis screenshotted on X — turned personal and rancorous. But there is some common ground between the two camps. Both sides agree that Russia (and China) has helped North Korea advance its nuclear program. KIM JONG UN in July showed off his missiles to Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU, an indicator of the countries’ relationship.

But the how matters a lot, and there’s a wide gap between “Moscow has been helpful” and “the Kremlin gave North Korea its blueprints.”

3. Don’t Judge a Book by Its Cover: North Korea’s HS-18 Is Not a Russian ICBM

Regarding those resource allocation decisions: we can be sure that Kim prioritizes and allocates resources resources to his nuclear and missile program rather than using them to take care of the Korean people in the north.

Conclusion:

Finally, based on its contentions that the HS-18 is a Yars ICBM with multiple warheads and highly capable penaids, the article contends that North Korea “now has the ability to deliver these thermonuclear bombs to the continental United States” (emphasis added), and that “The new North Korean ICBM capability significantly enhances the threat to the United States mainland with a nuclear attack if the United States were to intervene in a crisis.” In fact, however, the North Korean nuclear ICBM threat to the US is not new; as noted above, it probably has been in place since 2017. The HS-18 will add incrementally to the threat posed since then by North Korea’s HS-15 and -17 liquid-propellant ICBMs, deployments of which are still being augmented. It remains to be seen how many HS-18s will be deployed and at what pace, which will be driven by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and solid-propellant production capacities and resource allocation decisions.

Don’t Judge a Book by Its Cover: North Korea’s HS-18 Is Not a Russian ICBM

https://www.38north.org/2023/08/dont-judge-a-book-by-its-cover-north-koreas-hs-18-is-not-a-russian-icbm/

BY: VANN H. VAN DIEPEN
AUGUST 21, 2023MILITARY AFFAIRS

An August 17 article by a prominent academic technical expert claimed that North Korea’s new solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-18 (HS-18), actually is a Russian-supplied missile. The article also makes a series of claims about the capabilities and implications of the HS-18. Contrary to all of these assertions, however:

The HS-18 is neither a Russian ICBM nor is it “nearly identical” to one. It also is highly unlikely that Russia deliberately provided substantial ICBM technology. Most probably, North Korea developed the HS-18 on its own, benefitting from steady illicit acquisitions since the breakup of the USSR of significant ballistic missile technology directly from Russian companies and individuals, as well as dual-use items from entities in China and Russia.
There is no open-source evidence that the HS-18 carries, or has been flight tested with, ballistic missile penetration aids (penaids) to confuse missile defenses, despite the article’s claim that it “was designed from the beginning to be able to deploy large numbers of decoys.” It would, however, be logical for North Korea to develop and deploy penaids.
There is no evidence that any North Korean ICBM has carried or been flight tested with multiple warheads, despite the article’s contention that the HS-18 is “equipped to … deliver multiple thermonuclear weapons.” Pyongyang does, however, apparently intend to develop multiple-warhead ICBMs at some point.
North Korea has probably operationally deployed ICBMs since 2017 without having flight tested them on an operational trajectory, despite the article’s claim that “North Korea would have to flight-test any long-range ICBM to its full range.” The North probably deploys old-style reentry vehicles, like the US and USSR used in the 1950s and 1960s, that are large and robust enough to be highly likely to survive reentry without full-range flight testing.

Therefore, the North Korean nuclear ICBM threat to the US is not “new,” as the article maintains. The HS-18 will add incrementally to the threat posed since 2017 by ongoing deployments of liquid-propellant ICBMs, and it remains to be seen how many HS-18s will be deployed and at what pace. The article’s contention that the HS-18 “significantly enhances the threat to the United States mainland” is overstated.

Did Russia Provide North Korea With a Solid-propellant ICBM?

The HS-18 is not a Russian SS-27 Mod 1 (Topol-M) or Mod 2 (Yars) ICBM. (The article claims the HS-18 is an SS-27 Mod 2, which it mistakenly calls the Topol-M.) The HS-18’s general configuration—second and third stages sharing the same diameter, but smaller in diameter than the first stage—resembles these Russian missiles but also resembles the US Minuteman-III.

More important, contrary to the article’s contention that the HS-18’s physical dimensions are “nearly identical” to the SS-27 Mod 2/Yars, the North Korean ICBM is longer than all three of the above foreign ICBMs.

Based on measurements taken from the HS-18 launch canister previously paraded by North Korea and from photos of the first launch on April 13, 2023, the missile is some 25-26.95 meters long—significantly longer than the 22.5-meter Yars, the 21.9-meter Topol-M, and the 18.2-meter MM-III. (The article puts the HS-18 at “slightly longer than 22 m.”)

A new analysis by researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) provides several other technical explanations for why the HS-18 is not “nearly identical” to the Yars.

If It Did Not Provide Full-up ICBMs, Did Russia Provide North Korea With Substantial SS-27 Technology?

Although the possibility cannot be ruled out that the Russian Government deliberately provided North Korea with substantial technology and technical assistance in producing the HS-18, this is highly unlikely to be the case. Russia probably regards Yars technology as a “crown jewel” that it would be highly reticent to part with. It probably would be highly concerned that such technology in North Korean hands would be more vulnerable to acquisition by the US, which would facilitate the latter’s development of countermeasures. The USSR and now Russia have had a pretty solid 60-plus-year track record of not deliberately providing countries other than China with nuclear weapons or strategic missile technology.

Moreover, any such provision of technology needed to have occurred some 7-10 years ago to catalyze the development program that resulted in the appearance in 2023 of the HS-18. Although the advent of the Ukraine war arguably might provide Russia with an impetus to change its previous behavior and aid North Korean strategic programs (and the article points to the recent warming of bilateral relations as a sign of a recent ICBM transfer), such a shift would be too recent to explain the HS-18.

Did North Korea Obtain Russian Missile Technology on Its Own?

North Korea most likely developed the HS-18 on its own, but the missile’s development probably benefitted from steady illicit acquisitions since the breakup of the USSR of significant ballistic missile technology and know-how directly from Russian and other former-Soviet companies, institutes, and individuals. For example, in the early 1990s, North Korea almost certainly illicitly acquired design documents and hired scientists from the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau responsible for Soviet/Russian submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The HS-18 likewise almost certainly benefitted from steady North Korean acquisitions over the past 25-30 years of dual-use equipment, components and materials from companies and individuals in China (especially) and Russia—both directly and by entities in both countries as fronts to obtain items from third countries.

As noted previously, both types of acquisitions are unlikely to have been directly conducted or authorized by the Russian or Chinese governments. Thus, the article’s contention that “this particular ICBM could not possibly have come into the hands of the North Koreans without the full support and cooperation of the Russian government” is probably incorrect. That said, both countries have under-prioritized export control enforcement for years, so it would not be unreasonable to be concerned about them turning a blind eye to illicit North Korean missile proliferation activity, particularly in the past few years of “great power competition” with the US. Moreover, North Korea’s cyber intelligence operations have been enormously successful over the past decade, which also could have provided the country with relevant technological insights from Russia, China and other countries, even the US. But again, because of the development cycle of ICBM technology, any information gathered would likely have to have been obtained by North Korea 7-10 years ago.

Does the HS-18 Carry Ballistic Missile Penetration Aids?

The article’s claim that the HS-18 “was designed from the beginning to be able to deploy large numbers of decoys” to confuse missile defenses (i.e., penetration aids or penaids) appears to be based on (1) the incorrect assumption that the missile is an SS-27, a system that is equipped with penaids, and (2) the contention that a “decoy canister” containing penaids was detached from the third stage during the HS-18’s July 12, 2023 second flight test.

Although it would be logical for North Korea to deploy penaids on its ICBMs given US homeland missile defenses, and it is almost certainly technically capable of doing so, there is no open-source evidence that penaids have been flight tested or deployed on Pyongyang’s ICBMs or its medium- or intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The “decoy canister” the article contends was seen in North Korean media coverage actually appears to have been the HS-18’s spent second stage, given its size, configuration, and color scheme—an assessment shared (and augmented with much technical detail) by the CNS researchers.[1]

The article’s claim that HS-18 penaids “will defeat any missile defenses currently being operated and modernized by the United States” depends heavily on the type, number, and quality of whatever penaids North Korea might ultimately deploy—all of which are unknown from open sources. Moreover, unless North Korea flight tests penaids while using its own sensors of types similar to US missile defense sensors, Pyongyang itself will have a difficult time being assured that its penaids “will defeat” US defenses. No such testing has been detected in open-source reporting, and it is unclear if the North has deployed sensors suitable for such testing. Indeed, the US is highly likely to be able to collect better information on the performance of any flight tested North Korean penaids than Pyongyang can, which would assist Washington in countering them. This, in turn, might be a reason why North Korea would deploy penaids without flight testing, relying instead on ground testing, simulation, and the element of wartime surprise.

Does the HS-18 Carry MIRVs?

The article’s contention that the HS-18 is “equipped to…deliver multiple thermonuclear weapons” also appears to be based on the incorrect assumption that the missile is an SS-27 Mod 2/Yars. (The Mod 1/Topol-M carries a single warhead.) It would be logical for North Korea to deploy multiple warheads on its ICBMs to increase target coverage and complicate US homeland missile defenses. Given sufficient flight testing, it is probably technically capable of doing so. However, there remains no open-source reporting of any North Korean flight testing of multiple warheads.

Kim Jong Un reported in January 2021 that the North was in the final stage of “conducting research into perfecting the guidance technology for multi-warhead rocket.” This is generally interpreted by outside analysts as Kim making the development of multiple-warhead strategic missiles an objective. But it remains unclear whether the “multiple warheads” Kim referred to are shotgun-style multiple reentry vehicles (MRVs) or the more sophisticated multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) that are maneuvered to be released at widely dispersed targets by a separating post-boost vehicle (PBV, or MIRV “bus”) carrying the warheads as part of the missile’s payload. Although the article included a graphic suggesting that the HS-18 carries a PBV, there is no open-source evidence that the HS-18 released a PBV or multiple warheads in its two flight tests to date.

Does North Korea Have to Flight Test the HS-18 to Full ICBM Range?

The article contends that “North Korea would have to flight-test any long-range ICBM to its full range,” that testing on an ICBM trajectory is “essential,” and that “a nation could not have confidence that their missile could be used reliably unless they tested it on such a full trajectory.” Although this case is often made by outside analysts, North Korea’s historic track record of missile testing and operation strongly indicates it believes otherwise.

North Korean ICBMs have probably been operationally deployed since 2017, despite the lack of any testing on a full-range ICBM trajectory. In order to have adequate confidence that its ICBM reentry vehicles would successfully reach their targets on an operational trajectory even without such flight testing, the North probably deploys old-style reentry vehicles like the US and USSR used in the 1950s and 1960s that are large and robust enough to be highly likely to survive reentry. It has accumulated enough expertise and experience over the 40+ years of its missile program to field such reentry vehicles and have substantial confidence in their performance without full-range flight testing.

The use of such blunt-shaped and heavy RVs may also make it more difficult to deploy multiple warheads on the HS-18, especially MIRVs also requiring the weight of a PBV, given the missile’s diameter and apparent payload capacity. The much-larger-diameter, higher-capacity HS-17 liquid-propellant ICBM would be much easier to deploy with multiple old-style reentry vehicles.

Does the HS-18 Pose a Significant Threat to the US Homeland?

Finally, based on its contentions that the HS-18 is a Yars ICBM with multiple warheads and highly capable penaids, the article contends that North Korea “now has the ability to deliver these thermonuclear bombs to the continental United States” (emphasis added), and that “The new North Korean ICBM capability significantly enhances the threat to the United States mainland with a nuclear attack if the United States were to intervene in a crisis.” In fact, however, the North Korean nuclear ICBM threat to the US is not new; as noted above, it probably has been in place since 2017. The HS-18 will add incrementally to the threat posed since then by North Korea’s HS-15 and -17 liquid-propellant ICBMs, deployments of which are still being augmented. It remains to be seen how many HS-18s will be deployed and at what pace, which will be driven by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and solid-propellant production capacities and resource allocation decisions.

[1]
See Josh Smith, Trevor Hunnicutt and David Brunnstrom, “Latest North Korean missile sparks debate over possible Russian links,” Reuters, August 18, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/latest-north-korean-missile-sparks-new-debate-over-possible-russian-role-2023-08-18; Decker Eveleth. Twitter Post, August 17, 2023, 5:00 p.m., https://twitter.com/dex_eve/status/1692280255871082598; and Daniel Allen, Madeline Berzak, Michael Duitsman, Decker Eveleth, John Ford, Sam Lair, Jeffrey Lewis, and Tricia White, Arms Control Wonk, “Errors In Analysis of the Hwasong-18,” August 20, 2023, https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1218663/errors-in-postols-analysis-of-the-hwasong-18/.

4. North Korea warns of ‘thermo-nuclear war’ due to US-ROK drills, Camp David deals

I think our policy is to never confirm or deny the location of nuclear weapons.

As LTG Chun says, tensions are high because of north Korea actions and the regime's refusal to negotiate.

Excerpts:

The U.S. and South Korea previously announced that they would conduct over 30 field training exercises during the UFS drills. But they have yet to confirm whether U.S. nuclear assets will visit the peninsula during the exercises that will run until the end of the month.

Retired ROK Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum pushed back against the DPRK’s claims, stating that tensions on the peninsula are increasing because “North Korean nuclear capabilities are improving and threatening the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

“All the accusations and concerns that North Korea expresses can be resolved if North Korea agrees to denuclearization and returns to negotiations,” he told NK News.

North Korea warns of ‘thermo-nuclear war’ due to US-ROK drills, Camp David deals

State media slams Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises and US-ROK-Japan trilateral summit, threatening ‘offensive’ response

https://www.nknews.org/2023/08/north-korea-warns-of-thermo-nuclear-war-due-to-us-rok-drills-camp-david-deals/

Arius Derr August 22, 2023

Kim Jong Un applauds during an inter-Korean summit in 2018 | Image: Joint Inter-Korean Summit Press Corps - NK News (Sept. 19, 2018)

Ongoing U.S.-ROK military drills and the trilateral summit at Camp David have made “thermo-nuclear war” on the Korean Peninsula “more than likely,” North Korea warned Tuesday, threatening to “punish the hostile forces.”

The commentary in DPRK state media came a day after Seoul and Washington kicked off large-scale summertime exercises called Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS), with South Korea publicizing that it carried out air force training on intercepting North Korean planes.

“A thermo-nulear war, the first ever in history, is more than likely on the Korean peninsula,” the Korean Central News Agency stated at the beginning of the unsigned commentary.

Referring to the joint exercises by the name of an older iteration, state media slammed “Ulji Freedom Guardian” as “unprecedented in scale” and derided the use of strategic assets across “land, sea, air and space” field training exercises.

KCNA specifically called out the “expected” deployment of “nuclear carrier, nuclear submarine and ‘B–1B’ and ‘B–52H’ strategic bombers” as evidence of the offensive nature of the UFS drills, as well as the participation of 10 U.N. Command countries and the U.S. Space Force.

“An aggressive nature of the current exercise is more revealed as Australia, Canada, France, Britain, Greece, Italy, New Zealand and the Philippines, the war criminal states which joined in the Korean War under the signboard of the ‘UN Forces,’ are involved in it,” the commentary stated.

The U.S. and South Korea previously announced that they would conduct over 30 field training exercises during the UFS drills. But they have yet to confirm whether U.S. nuclear assets will visit the peninsula during the exercises that will run until the end of the month.

Retired ROK Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum pushed back against the DPRK’s claims, stating that tensions on the peninsula are increasing because “North Korean nuclear capabilities are improving and threatening the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

“All the accusations and concerns that North Korea expresses can be resolved if North Korea agrees to denuclearization and returns to negotiations,” he told NK News.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s state media commentary also took aim at the meeting between the leaders of the U.S., ROK and Japan at Camp David last week, where they agreed to expand trilateral security cooperation to better detect and deter North Korean missile, cyber and other threats, including through regular military drills.

“If the agreements made at the Camp David are additionally implemented … the possibility of outbreak of thermo-nuclear war on the Korean peninsula might become a reality,” KCNA stated.

“The prevailing situation demands proactive, offensive and upperhanded war response of our army,” KCNA warned, concluding that “the armed forces of our Republic will wait for a chance.”

Jenny Town, director of 38 North and senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said she believed the combination of Camp David outcomes, large-scale U.S.-ROK exercises and recent U.N. discussions on DPRK human rights sends a “strong message” about deepening security cooperation between the U.S. and its allies.

“But are these moves — especially the way they are being messaged — actually improving the security situation on the Korean Peninsula?” she said. “Or are they hardening the formation of opposing security blocs in a way that breeds greater insecurity and unpredictability in the region?”

This isn’t just about North Korean perceptions (and backlash), after all, but how these actions are impacting broader regional security trends and geopolitical relations.”

North Korea has long criticized annual U.S.-ROK military drills as preparation for an invasion, and state media similarly criticized last year’s UFS exercises as a “nuclear wargame” and a “foolish act” that invites Seoul’s “self-destruction.”

Kim Jong Un also released a new nuclear doctrine after last year’s iteration of the exercises, lowering the bar for a preemptive nuclear strike against the U.S. and South Korea.

The North Korean leader apparently plans to protest this year’s UFS with a military satellite launch. The Japanese government said Tuesday that the launch will occur between Aug. 24 and 31 while the drills are ongoing.

The DPRK has also announced that it will hold a paramilitary parade on Sept. 9 to mark the anniversary of the country’s founding.

Chad O’Carroll contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Bryan Betts.

Updated at 04:26 p.m. KST on Aug. 22 with expert comment.

5. S. Korea says Fukushima release plan has no scientific, technical problems

Excerpts:

"Our government has judged that the Japanese side will discharge the contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant as originally planned and has determined that there are no scientific or technical problems with the planned discharge of the contaminated water," said Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, during a daily briefing on the Fukushima issue.

Park, however, clarified that the South Korean government neither approves nor opposes the plan.

(3rd LD) S. Korea says Fukushima release plan has no scientific, technical problems | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · August 22, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks)

By Kim Han-joo

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea sees no scientific or technical problems with Japan's plan to release radioactive water from its crippled Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean later this week, an official said Tuesday.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced earlier that the release of Fukushima water will begin Thursday. Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) gave final approval to the discharge plan, saying it meets international standards.

"Our government has judged that the Japanese side will discharge the contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant as originally planned and has determined that there are no scientific or technical problems with the planned discharge of the contaminated water," said Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, during a daily briefing on the Fukushima issue.

Park, however, clarified that the South Korean government neither approves nor opposes the plan.

Park Ku-yeon (2nd from R), the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, speaks during a daily briefing on the Fukushima issue in Seoul on Aug. 22, 2023. (Yonhap)

Seoul will also request that the discharge be stopped immediately if the concentration of radioactive material in the water exceeds standard levels and that Japan promptly inform South Korea, according to Park.

The two countries have held three rounds of talks to discuss follow-up measures after President Yoon Suk Yeol asked Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to include South Korean experts in monitoring the Fukushima water release.

During the talks, the two sides have also agreed on regular visits by South Korean experts to the IAEA on-site office located in Fukushima, according to Park.

"The IAEA has actively responded to our request, and prepared and suggested the best plan, taking into account the IAEA's overall operational system," Park said. He added that the regular visits are proportionate to the dispatch of South Korean experts.

It was also one of several requests Yoon had made to Kishida.

Also, the IAEA will share the latest information regarding the release plan with the Seoul government and will hold video conferences regularly.

Park said the conference can be held either daily or weekly during the early stage of the release.

The Japanese government will also upload data, such as the radiation level, the flow rate of contaminated water and the level of tritium, a hydrogen radioisotope known to still be detected after treatment through a custom purification system known as ALPS on the website on an hourly base.

The data will also be provided in Korean, according to Park.

The Fukushima plant has stored more than 1.3 million tons of water through ALPS since three reactors melted down after a powerful earthquake struck off the coast in 2011.

In the wake of the meltdown incident, South Korea has banned all seafood imports from eight Japanese prefectures near Fukushima since 2013 due to concerns over their radiation levels.

"Our government will focus on the health and safety of the people and respond transparently and promptly, while doing its best to minimize damage to fishermen and the fisheries industry," Park said.

Under the plan, the Seoul government will widen the scope of areas subject to regular radiation monitoring beyond its territorial waters, according to Park.

Since late July, the Seoul government has conducted regular monitoring checks at 200 sites within its waters.

"The government plans to proactively investigate the impact of contaminated water in the early stages of release by expanding the monitoring area beyond our waters," Park said.

The government will also move forward with joint research with countries in the Pacific region on radiation in the waters by 2025.

Despite the IAEA's approval, environmentalists and the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) have strongly denounced Tokyo's plan, saying it will destroy the environment.

The DP said it will declare a state of emergency, vowing to fight against the release of the contaminated water, including calling for international support, and make efforts in the parliament.

An environment group holds a press conference in front of the Japanese embassy in Seoul in central Seoul on Aug. 22, 2023, in protest against Japan's plan to release contaminated water from the crippled Fukushima plant. (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · August 22, 2023

6. N. Korea intends to launch satellite between Aug. 24 and 31: Kyodo

Excerpts:

The North launched its first military spy satellite, the Malligyong-1, mounted on a new type of rocket named the Chollima-1, on May 31. But the rocket crashed into the Yellow Sea after an "abnormal starting" of the second-stage engine, according to the North's state media.

North Korea has also given prior notice to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the U.N. maritime safety agency, over its satellite launch plan, according to an official at South Korea's unification ministry.

(2nd LD) N. Korea intends to launch satellite between Aug. 24 and 31: Kyodo | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 22, 2023

(ATTN: REWRITES lead; UPDATES with more details throughout)

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has notified Japan of its plan to launch a satellite between Thursday and Aug. 31, according to a Japanese news report, as the country seeks to put a spy satellite into orbit following its failure in May.

The North informed Japan's coast guard of its plan to designate three maritime danger zones -- two of which are west of the Korean Peninsula and the other is to the east of the Philippines' island of Luzon, Japan's Kyodo News reported Tuesday.

"The plan is believed to be a retry of a military reconnaissance satellite launch North Korea attempted in May, but that ended in failure," it added.

The North launched its first military spy satellite, the Malligyong-1, mounted on a new type of rocket named the Chollima-1, on May 31. But the rocket crashed into the Yellow Sea after an "abnormal starting" of the second-stage engine, according to the North's state media.

North Korea has also given prior notice to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the U.N. maritime safety agency, over its satellite launch plan, according to an official at South Korea's unification ministry.

This file photo provided by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on June 1, 2023, shows the launch of the North's new Chollima-1 rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, the Malligyong-1, from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers last week that Pyongyang could launch a reconnaissance satellite in late August or early September, ahead of the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding on Sept. 9.

The launch window overlaps the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise between South Korea and the United States that began its 11-day run on Monday. The North has long denounced Seoul-Washington joint military drills as a rehearsal for an invasion.

"With a satellite launch, the North appears to want to celebrate its founding anniversary internally," said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

North Korea also seems to want to make the latest trilateral summit agreement among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo futile and flex its military muscle against the UFS exercise, he added.

The leaders of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan held a trilateral summit at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland on Friday and agreed to cooperate closely for stronger missile defense against North Korea.

Seoul's unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs voiced "strong" regret over the North's satellite launch plan and called on Pyongyang to immediately revoke it.

"A satellite launch by the North is a blatant illegal act that flatly violates U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban any launches using ballistic missile technology. Pyongyang cannot justify it with any excuse," the ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

He said the government will sternly deal with the North's illegal provocative acts, based on close three-way coordination among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

A military spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons that the North has vowed to develop, along with solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and a nuclear-powered submarine.

The South Korean military said in July that the North's spy satellite has "no military utility" after retrieving its wreckage from the Yellow Sea.

Experts said a spy satellite will help the North stage a precision strike against targets in war situations, as it will enhance the country's surveillance capability, but many still have doubts about the North's satellite capabilities.

This file photo, captured from footage of the state-run Korean Central Television on June 19, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presiding over an enlarged plenary meeting of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 22, 2023

7. S. Korea calls on N. Korea to abandon plan to launch satellite

Excerpts:

South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers last week that Pyongyang could launch a reconnaissance satellite in late August or early September, ahead of the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding on Sept. 9.

The launch window overlaps the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise between South Korea and the United States that began its 11-day run Monday. The North has long denounced Seoul-Washington joint military drills as a rehearsal for an invasion.

"With a satellite launch, the North appears to want to celebrate its founding anniversary internally," said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

North Korea also seems to want to make the latest trilateral summit agreement among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo futile and flex its military muscle against the UFS exercise, he added.

(3rd LD) S. Korea calls on N. Korea to abandon plan to launch satellite | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · August 22, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with South Korean foreign ministry's response; CHANGES headline)

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's foreign ministry on Tuesday called on North Korea to abandon its plan to launch a satellite, as the North reportedly notified Japan of its plan to put a satellite into orbit in the coming days.

According to Japan's Kyodo News, the North has informed Japan's coast guard of its plan to launch a satellite and designate three maritime danger zones -- two of which are west of the Korean Peninsula and the other to the east of the Philippines' island of Luzon -- between Thursday and Aug. 31.

Pyongyang launched its first military spy satellite, the Malligyong-1, mounted on a new type of rocket named the Chollima-1, on May 31. But the rocket crashed into the Yellow Sea after an "abnormal starting" of the second-stage engine, according to the North's state media.

"We deeply regret that despite repeated warnings from the international community, North Korea has once again announced its intention to conduct the launch. We urge them to immediately withdraw the plan," Lim Soo-suk, spokesperson of Seoul's foreign ministry, told a regular briefing.

Lim also stressed that the North's satellite launch "constitutes a clear violation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions that prohibit any launches utilizing ballistic missile technology."

Seoul's unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs also voiced "strong" regret over the North's plan.

"A satellite launch by the North is a blatant illegal act that flatly violates U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban any launches using ballistic missile technology. Pyongyang cannot justify it with any excuse," a ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

He said the government will sternly deal with the North's illegal provocative acts, based on close three-way coordination among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

According to the ministry, North Korea has also given prior notice to the International Maritime Organization, the U.N. maritime safety agency, over its satellite launch plan.

The launch window overlaps the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise between South Korea and the United States that began its 11-day run Monday. The North has long denounced Seoul-Washington joint military drills as a rehearsal for an invasion.

"With a satellite launch, the North appears to want to celebrate its founding anniversary internally," said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

North Korea also seems to want to make the latest trilateral summit agreement among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo futile and flex its military muscle against the UFS exercise, he added.

A military spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons that the North has vowed to develop, along with solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and a nuclear-powered submarine.

The South Korean military said in July that the North's spy satellite has "no military utility" after retrieving its wreckage from the Yellow Sea.

Experts said a spy satellite will help the North stage a precision strike against targets in war situations, as it will improve the country's surveillance, but many still have doubts about the North's satellite capabilities.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · August 22, 2023

8. N. Korea's Kim scolds premier for 'irresponsible' attitude over flood damage

Blame. Someone must be blamed (anyone other than Kim Jong Un). Someone must be held accountable (and attacked and punished).

Excerpts:

Kim said the premier's "feeble work attitude" and "wrong viewpoint" are to blame for the irresponsibility of officials at a time when authorities emphasized thorough measures to prevent crop damage from the typhoon.

Kim also stressed the incident is not a natural disaster but a "human disaster by irresponsibility," expressing regret over his thought and conduct "not befitting a premier leading the economic headquarters of the country and responsible for the people's livelihood," the KCNA said.

Hinting at a possible replacement of the premier, Kim said the ruling Workers' Party of Korea needs to "plainly examine the irresponsible work attitude and ideological viewpoint of the premier."

He also ordered officials to "ferret out" responsible organs and people and "strictly censure and sternly punish them."

(LEAD) N. Korea's Kim scolds premier for 'irresponsible' attitude over flood damage | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 22, 2023

(ATTN: REWRITES headline, lead; UPDATES with more details throughout)

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un berated the country's premier over his "irresponsible" attitude in not preventing damage to farmland from the recent typhoon, as Kim inspected a flooded area, the North's state media reported Tuesday.

Kim also criticized the cabinet of Premier Kim Tok-hun for "spoiling" economic plans, saying that administrative and economic rules have "got out of order more seriously," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Kim made the remarks during an on-site inspection of a reclaimed area in South Pyongan Province the previous day, where restoration efforts are under way after tideland was flooded as seawater burst an embankment with a poor drainage system, the KCNA reported.

Kim's sharp-worded comments fueled speculation that he may replace the premier, who was appointed to the post in 2020.

He was not among the officials who accompanied Kim on the latest on-site inspection, according to the KCNA.

This photo, carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 22, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from R) inspecting a flooded area in South Pyongan Province the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Farmlands in some regions of the North were flooded due to heavy rains brought by Typhoon Khanun that recently swept through the Korean Peninsula.

Kim said the premier's "feeble work attitude" and "wrong viewpoint" are to blame for the irresponsibility of officials at a time when authorities emphasized thorough measures to prevent crop damage from the typhoon.

Kim also stressed the incident is not a natural disaster but a "human disaster by irresponsibility," expressing regret over his thought and conduct "not befitting a premier leading the economic headquarters of the country and responsible for the people's livelihood," the KCNA said.

Hinting at a possible replacement of the premier, Kim said the ruling Workers' Party of Korea needs to "plainly examine the irresponsible work attitude and ideological viewpoint of the premier."

He also ordered officials to "ferret out" responsible organs and people and "strictly censure and sternly punish them."

The acerbic remarks by the North's leader come as the country is grappling with economic difficulties and a chronic food shortage, worsened under prolonged global sanctions and a rigid border lockdown that was aimed at fending off COVID-19.

This photo, carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 22, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (3rd from R) inspecting a flooded area in South Pyongan Province the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

An official at South Korea's unification ministry said Kim appeared to be putting the blame for the North's faltering economy on its Cabinet.

"There is an aspect that (Kim) appeared to shift the responsibility to the Cabinet over the tough economic situation that was caused by wrong policy decision-making, such as sanctions on its nuclear development and border closure," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

Calling Kim's latest remarks one of "very strong" criticism, the official said North Korea is likely to carry out punitive measures in any form against the premier, as well as institutions that were held accountable for the flood damage.

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 22, 2023

9. N. Korean airliner arrives in Beijing in 1st post-COVID-19 commercial flight

Air Koryo is just keeping us guessing as to its flight schedule.

(LEAD) N. Korean airliner arrives in Beijing in 1st post-COVID-19 commercial flight | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 22, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with details throughout)

BEIJING, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- A flight operated by Air Koryo, North Korea's national carrier, arrived in Beijing on Tuesday, marking the resumption of commercial flights connecting the two countries after a hiatus of more than 3 1/2 years caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The JS151 flight, which departed from Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang, arrived at Beijing Capital International Airport at 9:17 a.m., earlier than its estimated time of arrival of 9:50 a.m.

An arrival and departure board at the airport showed that the flight had arrived in Beijing and that a JS152 flight was scheduled to depart for Pyongyang at 1:05 p.m.

The flight had departed from Pyongyang at 8:30 a.m., according to real-time flight tracking service Flightradar24.

The arrival came a day after two Air Koryo flights that were scheduled to arrive in Beijing at 9:30 a.m. and depart at 1:05 p.m. were abruptly canceled.

North Koreans line up at a check-in counter for Air Koryo, North Korea's national carrier, at Beijing Capital International Airport on Aug. 22, 2023. (Yonhap)

Meanwhile, the check-in counter of Air Koryo at the Beijing airport was bustling with North Korean passengers ahead of the afternoon flight heading to Pyongyang.

Many of the passengers, who were wearing North Korean flag pins on their chests, had trolleys full of baggage in a sign of the long hiatus that had suspended international flights from and to the North since January 2020.

It wasn't immediately clear how many passengers boarded the Tu-204 aircraft scheduled to head to Pyongyang. The plane, made by the Russian aerospace company Tupolev, has a seating capacity of 160-190 depending on the variant.

The Tu-204, the latest among the fleet owned by Air Koryo, had served routes connecting North Korea and China ahead of the pandemic.

The two flights came days after a team of North Korean athletes made a rare trip across the border on a bus traveling from the North Korean border city of Sinuiju into China to attend a taekwondo event in Kazakhstan.

The rare border crossing was seen as a sign of Pyongyang's border reopening after the secretive regime closed its border with China due to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.

An arrival and departure board at Beijing Capital International Airport shows that a JS151 flight from Pyongyang has arrived on Aug. 22, 2023. (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 22, 2023

10. Yoon: We will see more robust trilateral security cooperation system

Yoon: We will see more robust trilateral security cooperation system

donga.com

Posted August. 22, 2023 08:44,

Updated August. 22, 2023 08:44

Yoon: We will see more robust trilateral security cooperation system. August. 22, 2023 08:44. by Joo-Young Jeon aimhigh@donga.com.

President Yoon Suk Yeol said at the Eulji State Council meeting on Monday, “North Korea will use all available means to achieve the purpose of its war, and will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to that end. The ever-growing threat of provocation by North Korea will create a more solid structure for trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan.” Such remarks strongly indicate President Yoon's strong determination to deter nuclear weapons, which had led to the launch of the ROK-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) following the Washington Declaration and the stipulation of a trilateral joint response to threats in line with the Camp David Joint Statement.

At the Eulji State Council meeting presided over by President Yoon at the Yongsan Presidential Office that day, “North Korea will try to paralyze the national infrastructure by attacking important national facilities (from the beginning of the war). Therefore, it is necessary to drastically improve the protection measures for important national structures.” He said, “From this year’s military exercises, we will conduct government-led North Korean nuclear response drills for the first time. Please conduct military training exhaustively, focusing on three situations (in preparation for an attack by North Korea).” He also emphasized, “Educate the nuclear warning dissemination system and national action tips, and check the national response capabilities for national relief and aid measures without mistake.”

He also emphasized achievements related to North Korea at the South Korea-US-Japan summit held at Camp David on Friday. President Yoon said, “The three countries will establish an early warning system for North Korean missile information and conduct military defense drills between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan on a regular basis according to systematic plans. South Korea, the U.S., and Japan will focus their capabilities on monitoring and blocking illegal cyber activities that finance the North Korean regime’s nuclear and missile development.”

At the Eulji National Security Council (NSC) presided over by President Yoon at the Yongsan Presidential Office Crisis Management Center on that day, he emphasized, “True peace is safeguarded without fail only by overwhelming force, not by begging or benevolence from one side. Although North Korea talks about preemptive nuclear strikes and offensive war preparations, we will immediately and overwhelmingly punish any North Korean provocation.”

한국어

donga.com

11. Korea granted regular visits to IAEA office in Fukushima

A result of improved bilateral relations?

Tuesday

August 22, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Published: 22 Aug. 2023, 18:16

Updated: 22 Aug. 2023, 18:25

Korea granted regular visits to IAEA office in Fukushima

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-08-22/national/diplomacy/Korea-granted-regular-visits-to-IAEA-office-in-Fukushima/1852463

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida answers questions from journalists upon his arrival at the prime minister's office on Tuesday in Tokyo. [AP/YONHAP]

Korea will be allowed regular visits to the office of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Fukushima to receive the latest updates on Japan’s discharge of its treated radioactive water into the sea scheduled to start this Thursday.

Speaking to reporters in Seoul on Tuesday shortly after Japan’s announcement of its water discharge this week, Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, said the latest arrangement between the IAEA and Seoul does not mean that Korea fully supports the Japanese plan to discharge its treated water from Fukushima.

“If by any chance Japan veers from its original discharge plan, the Korean government will deem this action harmful to the safety and health of the Korean people and request Japan to cease all operations immediately," he said.

Tokyo announced on Tuesday its decision to release the treated radioactive water from the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant starting Thursday.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant sits in coastal towns of both Okuma and Futaba, as seen from the Ukedo fishing port in Namie town, northeastern Japan, on March 2, 2022. [AP/YONHAP]

The plant was struck by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011. The electricity that was supposed to pump coolant to the reactors was shut down, leading to a partial meltdown at the plant, which today stores some 1.25 million tons of contaminated water.

The latest announcement from Japan drew strong opposition from Korea's Democratic Party (DP), who called the Japanese decision “a crisis.”

“Japan has ultimately declared the worst possible environmental destruction,” said Lee Jae-myung, DP leader, during a rally the liberal party hosted at the National Assembly in Seoul on Tuesday. “It has decided to commit the evil of dumping contaminated water into the sea without proper scientific verification, understanding from neighboring countries or consent from Japanese citizens.”

Lee called the situation a national crisis and vowed the DP would do all it can to stop Japan from following through with its plan.

He was joined by dozens of DP members who held picket signs in the parliament decrying the latest Japanese decision. Some also criticized the current Yoon Suk Yeol government for “sitting on their hands.”

Members of the liberal Democratic Party host a rally at the National Assembly in Seoul on Tuesday to protest the Japanese decision to start releasing the treated radioactive water from Fukushima into the sea starting this Thursday. [KIM HYUN-DONG]

The Yoon government on Tuesday reiterated its position that it found no issues with Japan’s plan in terms of its science and technicalities.

“The Korean government was informed earlier by Japan of its decision, and we stand by our original assessment — that there is no scientific or technical problem with Japan’s plan,” Park said.

Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, right, speaks with the press in Seoul on Tuesday. [YONHAP]

The IAEA released a statement Monday reaffirming its commitment to monitoring the safety of the nuclear power plant's treated water discharge. The agency evaluated the Japanese plan to treat and release the radioactive water over the past two years.

“The report concluded that the approach and activities for this discharge are consistent with relevant international safety standards and would have a negligible radiological impact on people and the environment,” said the agency in its statement.

It added that Rafael Grossi, the director general of the IAEA, has committed to continue the organization's impartial, independent, and objective safety review of the discharge process.

BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]

12. Sustainability matters at Camp David

This is the major concern of the national security professionals in all three countries. But the diplomats and action officers have really incorporated actions and processes into the agreements that do so much to institutionalize the agreements so they can be sustained despite the political winds.

Monday

August 21, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Published: 21 Aug. 2023, 20:15

Sustainability matters at Camp David

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-08-21/opinion/editorials/Sustainability-matters-at-Camp-David/1851607

In a Cabinet meeting Monday, President Yoon Suk Yeol defined the tripartite cooperation system established at Camp David as “a chance to transform complicated global challenges into opportunities through the demonstration of a joint leadership and responsibility.” The president stressed that the cooperation system will certainly reduce dangers for the Korean people and increase opportunities.

That represents the president’s own evaluation of the Camp David spirit and principles the three leaders agreed to at their first exclusive summit.

The three-way summit was held amid many pending issues between Korea and Japan over history, Tokyo’s persistent territorial claims on Dokdo islets, and its planned discharge of the wastewater from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plants. Nevertheless, the three heads of state agreed to the trilateral cooperation to jointly deal with the security crisis in the Korean Peninsula and global economic challenges. Their consensus on military and economic cooperation can serve as a reassurance on our security.

Smoothly managing the cooperation system carries great significance from now. As in the case of general agreements between countries, the spirit and principles of Camp David are susceptible to internal and external changes. For instance, the results of the U.S. presidential election next year or the results of next year’s parliamentary elections in Korea or political changes in Japan can determine the future of the historic agreement.

Given their common denominator of free democracy, the three countries must prepare for possible leadership change. The agreement on the sex slave issue the Park Geun-hye administration struck with Tokyo was broken by the following Moon Jae-in administration. As a result, Korea and Japan underwent a conflict over Tokyo’s export ban on materials needed to produce semiconductors in Korea.

If an international agreement benefits Korea, our governments, conservative or liberal, must uphold — and systematize — what was agreed to by the past administration. The rumored establishment of a new ambassadorial post dedicated to the Indo-Pacific theater in the Yoon administration could be part of the effort.

However, without public support, international agreements can hardly be put into action. The government and the governing People Power Party must persuade opposition parties and the general public to support his crusade. To prove the efficacy of the spirit of Camp David and sustain it, the government must come up with convincing follow-up measures.

13. American Soldier Detained in North Korea Poses Unusually Challenging Test for U.S.

Excerpts:

Since then, King has likely faced harsh treatment by North Korean interrogators, who would first want to determine whether he was a U.S. spy, then proceed to intelligence-gathering inquiries about America’s military posture, said Greg Scarlatoiu, the executive director of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, based in Washington, D.C.

That fact-finding process could take weeks, months, possibly years, and would typically deploy psychological pressure, physical torture and sleep deprivation, said Scarlatoiu, who has researched North Korean interrogation tactics. “We’re not dealing with humanitarians here,” he said.

Keeping King for a lengthy stay outside of prison, as how North Korea did with other U.S. soldiers who willfully entered the country, would require considerable resources, said Tae Yong Ho, a former senior North Korean diplomat who defected and is now a lawmaker in South Korea. That would likely include a security-and-surveillance detail, an interpreter and specialized instruction to indoctrinate the U.S. soldier, Tae said in a Facebook post.

American Soldier Detained in North Korea Poses Unusually Challenging Test for U.S.

Travis King dashed across the border during a stalemate in nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang

By Timothy W. Martin

and Dasl Yoon

Updated Aug. 22, 2023 12:00 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/american-soldier-detained-in-north-korea-poses-unusually-challenging-test-for-u-s-54d9e76f?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1

Pyongyang said its investigation into Travis King, the U.S. soldier who entered North Korea voluntarily last month, is continuing. PHOTO: AHN YOUNG-JOON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

SEOUL—The U.S. has successfully negotiated the release of Americans from North Korea in the past, but the circumstances surrounding the detention of a U.S. soldier who dashed across the border last month are different in ways that will likely make the task more challenging this time around.

Pvt. Second Class Travis King entered North Korea voluntarily on July 18, according to U.S. officials, leaving the Biden administration with limited leverage should the American serviceman actually want to live under the Kim Jong Un regime. He has also been detained during a stalemate in nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang. That reduces the likelihood that North Korea will use King’s release as a goodwill gesture to bolster its side in disarmament negotiations.

Pyongyang issued its first public comments about King last week, claiming the American sought refuge in North Korea or a third country due to racism and disillusionment over inequities in U.S. society. North Korea said its investigation into King is continuing.

The Pentagon said it couldn’t verify King’s alleged comments, while U.S. officials have said the goal remains to bring King back home. If released, the 23-year-old would be the second American serviceman to leave North Korea alive after willingly going to the secretive nation.

Successful efforts in the past to get Americans released often relied on dispatching prominent current or former U.S. officials—visits that North Korea seized for propaganda victories or opportunities to express interest in a return to peace talks. But the Kim regime has rebuffed diplomatic outreach in recent years and has expressed increasing hostility toward the U.S. in recent weeks.

Robert King, a former U.S. envoy for North Korean human rights, helped win the release of several Americans in the past. Those include the release of Eddie Jun in 2011, after the envoy had traveled to North Korea to explore a potential resumption of American food aid. But generally, Washington faces challenges negotiating with such an opaque and unresponsive regime.

“They will only talk when they want to,” Robert King said of the North Koreans. “They won’t respond just because we’re asking serious questions because they’re running their show and won’t bow to anybody.”

U.S. Citizen Detained in North Korea Identified as Active Service Member

Yoon: Ulchi to Include 1st Training against N. Korea’s Nuclear Threats

world.kbs.co.kr

Politics

Written: 2023-08-21 11:02:32 / Updated: 2023-08-21 13:59:03

Photo : YONHAP News

President Yoon Suk Yeol announced that training on responses to North Korea's nuclear threats will be included in the annual Ulchi exercise for the first time this year as he called for thorough participation by civilians, the government and the military.

Presiding over a Cabinet meeting as the Ulchi exercise kicked off on Monday, Yoon said the drills, set for a four-day nationwide run, are training for an all-out war, such as the maintenance of state functions, support for military operations and the stability of civilian livelihoods.

He called for efforts to enhance the nation's capacity with the advent of fake news for opinion-rigging, unconventional warfare accompanied by psychological warfare and terrorism, cyber warfare and regular warfare involving nuclear threats.

Announcing that training on responses to the North's nuclear threats will be held for the first time this year, Yoon urged officials to promote the public nuclear warning system and action plan and to check up on the state's ability to manage public relief and treatment.

The president called for improvements to protection against attacks by North Korea on major state facilities, including nuclear power plants and communication networks.

Presiding over a session of the National Security Council, Yoon stressed that peace is maintained not through unilateral begging or good will but overwhelming power.

With a combined Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise with the U.S. also under way, Yoon pledged to decisively retaliate against any type of provocation by the North.

Editor's Pick

world.kbs.co.kr

15. [ANALYSIS] Timing of North Korea's satellite launch suggests growing impatience of its leader

Because Kim Jong Un's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies are failing. Last Friday's Camp David summit was an indication of Kim's failure to split US alliances. They are only getting stronger in the face of north Korean threats. But Kim does not have anything left in his seven decades old playbook except purges and provocations.

[ANALYSIS] Timing of North Korea's satellite launch suggests growing impatience of its leader

The Korea Times · August 22, 2023

This May 31 file photo shows the launch of North Korea's Chollima-1 rocket carrying a spy satellite from Tongchang-ri on the country's west coast. North Korea told Japan, Tuesday, that it will launch a satellite between Aug. 24 and 31 after the first botched attempt. Yonhap

Failure could lead to mass purges, nuclear weapons test: experts

By Jung Min-ho

North Korea informed Japan, Tuesday, that it plans to launch a satellite in two weeks, less than three months after a failed attempt to send its first reconnaissance satellite into space.

According to Japanese media reports, Pyongyang is set to proceed with the plan between Aug. 24 and 31, prompting officials in both South Korea and Japan to issue warnings to ships passing through three potentially risky areas ― Korea's West Sea, the East China Sea and waters east of the Philippines (Luzon Island).

Speaking to The Korea Times, experts said the North appears to have determined the timing of the next launch based on political needs, particularly ahead of the Day of the Foundation of the Republic, on Sept. 9, rather than the scientific readiness level. They believe a failure this time could result in mass purges or even a nuclear weapons test as Kim Jong-un might consider the failure as politically damaging.

"When I heard that North Korea's satellite launch rocket failed three months ago because of instability in the engine and fuel system, I thought it would take much more time for another attempt," Chang Young-keun, a rocket scientist at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said.

"If similar errors occurred in a developed nation, scientists would examine and rectify not only fundamental risk factors, but also all other potential, indirect issues. From a scientific perspective, there has not been enough time for preparations."

But that does not mean that North Korea will fail again, he noted.

"If North Korea correctly identified and tackled the problem that caused the failure in the rocket engine's ignition, it might be able to put the satellite into orbit," he said.

After its rocket ― carrying a spy satellite ― plunged into the sea on May 31, the North said it held a meeting where officials in charge of the project were "bitterly criticized."

This undated photo released on Monday by North Korean state media shows Kim Jong-un inspecting a flotilla in North Korea. Yonhap

The report was surprising, given that, compared to his predecessors, the young North Korean leader has been quite lenient with scientific endeavors and errors, said Go Myong-hyun, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank.

"There must be internal issues that have pushed him to hasten the process. For some reason, he seems to be on edge," Go said. "Despite scientific risks, North Korea has been expediting (the launch) possibly to achieve political objectives … All these signs suggest that another failure could lead to mass purges."

Citing reports from intelligence officials last week, Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the conservative ruling People Power Party said that North Korea was stepping up efforts to improve the reliability of its rocket, while making technical adjustments after Kim told his officials to prioritize the project for this year.

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank, warned that Kim could push for a nuclear weapons test if another failure embarrasses him.

"If it succeeds, North Korea will celebrate the founding anniversary in a festive mood," he said.

"If it fails, however, Kim may end up pushing for a nuclear test to save face. I think this is an alternative plan on his mind. Given the weather forecast, I believe the launch date would likely be either Aug. 25 or 26."

An official at the Ministry of Unification told reporters that the planned launch would be a clear violation of the U.N. Security Council's resolutions, calling on Pyongyang to cancel it.

"No matter what excuses North Korea may have, it cannot justify this illegal act," the official said.

The Korea Times · August 22, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

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