Quotes of the day:
"I do not like to state an opinion on a matter unless I know the precise facts."
- Albert Einstein
"Associate with men of good quality if you esteem your own reputation; for it is better to be alone than in bad company."
- George Washington
"A teacher who is attempting to teach, without inspiring the pupil with a desire to learn, is hammering on a cold iron."
- Horace Mann
1. North Korea Is Irrelevant Again
2. Vietnam monitoring bank accounts of N. Korean embassy employees: report
3. Moon says S. Korea will join sanctions against Russia
4. Another S. Korean wartime sexual slavery victim dies; survivors now at 12
5. Nine out of 10 foreign companies are undecided on investing in Korea
6. U.S. sends fighter jets to Japan in apparent warning to North, China
7. South Korea to pay compensation to spies during Korean War
8. Ukraine conflict, a cautionary tale for security-wary North Korea
9. Jim Rogers still bullish on united Korea
10. More and more students in Hyesan are abandoning their studies due to economic difficulties
11. Sunchon Thermal Power Plant worker vandalizes employee performance chart
1. North Korea Is Irrelevant Again
Excerpts:
Instead, Kim says he wants recognition of North Korea as a “responsible” nuclear weapons state. While Pyongyang’s aspiration to behave more internationally respectably is a positive development, this by itself is not enough to make Washington prioritize new negotiations.
What about the threat of additional nuclear tests? The first few explosions had low yields. There was a strong incentive to talk the North Koreans out of more tests before they learned how to make more destructive bombs. But North Korea’s sixth explosion in 2017 might have been a hydrogen bomb. If the North can already make hydrogen bombs, the marginal utility to Seoul and Washington of stopping future tests is greatly decreased, and the urgency of negotiations is accordingly diminished. Furthermore, the U.S. and South Korean governments know they can leave this problem to Beijing, which opposes further North Korean nuclear tests out of fear that radioactive contamination might spread to China.
Despite recently making itself a de facto nuclear weapons state that is openly improving its delivery systems and presumably enlarging its stockpile of bombs, North Korea is largely irrelevant again – small and economically weak, all but disconnected from the global economy, deterred, and showing no interest in offering what Washington wants, which is denuclearization.
North Korea Is Irrelevant Again
Continued missile testing by North Korea will not compel Seoul, Tokyo, or Washington to seek the negotiations Pyongyang could use to address its needs.
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North Korea test-fired seven missiles in January 2022, the most ever in a single month and more than its total number of missile tests for all of 2021. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attributed the spate of tests to Pyongyang “trying to get attention.” Blinken’s assessment is an over-simplification; the Kim regime tests for technical reasons as well as for political signaling.
Superficially, North Korea appears relevant again. In fact, however, it will be more difficult than in the past for Pyongyang to turn the renewed attention into leverage.
What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un most immediately wants from Washington are sanctions relief and recognition as a nuclear weapons state. North Korea also has a severe energy shortage, which threatens its economic development.
But continued missile testing by North Korea does not compel Seoul, Tokyo, or Washington to seek the negotiations Pyongyang could use to address its needs.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has already been inclined toward accommodating North Korea since the beginning of his term nearly five years ago. His basic stance is not affected by spikes in inter-Korean tensions or by missile tests in particular. Instead, Moon’s latitude is limited by support (or lack thereof) from the U.S. government.
For its part, Washington is content with a policy of neglecting North Korea. In March 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden shrugged off the first North Korean missile tests of his presidency as “business as usual.”
His administration condemned the January tests and the expected North Korean return to intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing, but restated its previous policy of thinly-disguised aloofness: being willing to talk whenever the North Koreans are willing to discuss denuclearization.
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With several very large domestic problems to tackle and other foreign policy issues such as Russia and China taking priority, Biden is understandably putting his effort toward areas other than trying to win a Nobel Prize for bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula. In a survey published by the Pew Research Center on February 16, a compilation of the top 18 public policy concerns of Americans barely touched on foreign affairs and did not mention North Korea. Moreover, Biden surely realizes a serious diplomatic overture to Pyongyang would open him to accusations of naiveté or appeasement from his political enemies.
The January missile tests are consistent with the Kim regime’s stated aspirations. Over a year ago, Kim vowed to “upgrade” his strategic arsenal and add “new nuclear capabilities.” He specifically mentioned submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, improved accuracy, shifting from liquid to solid fuel for missiles (which greatly shortens launch preparation time), tactical nuclear weapons, and building the world’s largest nuclear and conventional warheads for his missiles. The most recent tests included short and medium-range ballistic missiles, a cruise missile, and a maneuverable re-entry vehicle.
The dreaded return to North Korean long-range missile testing, in hiatus since 2017, is overdue. Kim announced in December 2019 that his self-imposed moratorium on long-range ballistic missile tests was over. Kim also committed in January 2021 to launching a “military reconnaissance satellite.” A space launch uses what is essentially an ICBM booster rocket.
The continued delay suggests that Kim may not be anxious to expend one of his last bits of leverage, hoping that the Americans will plead for negotiations in order to prevent another ICBM test. It is also possible North Korean technicians are not yet confident the test would be successful. A failed test would raise new doubts among foreigners about the viability of North Korean delivery systems, which are not yet fully proven.
To be sure, Pyongyang making progress in its missile programs is unwelcome from the standpoint of the United States, South Korea, and Japan. Nevertheless, these advances don’t demand a response from North Korea’s potential adversaries because there is minimal impact on the regional strategic balance.
An improved North Korean arsenal has a better chance of defeating enemy anti-missile defense systems and is more survivable against attempted pre-emptive strikes. This helps compensate for North Korea’s overall military weakness vis-à-vis South Korea and the United States, which Pyongyang fears might attempt to overthrow the regime and unify the Peninsula under Seoul’s rule. More capable missiles may therefore increase Kim’s sense of protection from an attempted South Korean-U.S. invasion.
This, however, is no loss of strategic maneuverability for Seoul and Washington, which have no desire to invade North Korea and would probably only do so to finish a war started by Pyongyang. Yet no amount of strengthening its arsenal, including the ability to evade missile defenses, would ever allow North Korea to negate the U.S. capability to massively retaliate. A single Ohio-class missile submarine, of which the US Navy has 14, can deliver enough nuclear warheads to destroy all of North Korea’s major cities.
Thus, even large numbers of the new missiles North Korea is testing would not allow Pyongyang to win a war against the United States or one of its allies covered by the nuclear umbrella.
Improved missiles reinforce North Korea’s deterrence against the U.S. or South Korea launching a discretionary war of regime change, but they do not give Pyongyang a first-strike capability. In short, the missile upgrades matter little, so they confer little leverage.
The North Korean government seems to have concluded that its accustomed policy of forcing its way into the conference room with Seoul and Washington has run its course. Premeditated lethal provocation incidents have nearly disappeared since 2010, the year Seoul warned that it would thereafter respond with military retaliation against any violent North Korean attacks. This quiescence has reduced the urgency of talking to Pyongyang.
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Instead, Kim says he wants recognition of North Korea as a “responsible” nuclear weapons state. While Pyongyang’s aspiration to behave more internationally respectably is a positive development, this by itself is not enough to make Washington prioritize new negotiations.
What about the threat of additional nuclear tests? The first few explosions had low yields. There was a strong incentive to talk the North Koreans out of more tests before they learned how to make more destructive bombs. But North Korea’s sixth explosion in 2017 might have been a hydrogen bomb. If the North can already make hydrogen bombs, the marginal utility to Seoul and Washington of stopping future tests is greatly decreased, and the urgency of negotiations is accordingly diminished. Furthermore, the U.S. and South Korean governments know they can leave this problem to Beijing, which opposes further North Korean nuclear tests out of fear that radioactive contamination might spread to China.
Despite recently making itself a de facto nuclear weapons state that is openly improving its delivery systems and presumably enlarging its stockpile of bombs, North Korea is largely irrelevant again – small and economically weak, all but disconnected from the global economy, deterred, and showing no interest in offering what Washington wants, which is denuclearization.
2. Vietnam monitoring bank accounts of N. Korean embassy employees: report
Monitoring is good but taking action is better.
Vietnam monitoring bank accounts of N. Korean embassy employees: report | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Feb. 24 (Yonhap) -- The Vietnamese government is closely monitoring bank accounts of North Koreans in the country as part of efforts to implement U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang, an international organization's report showed Thursday.
The Southeast Asian country has taken proactive measures against Pyongyang's activities prohibited under U.N. Security Council sanctions, according to an evaluation report on Vietnam's steps to combat money laundering released by the Financial Action Task Force. Based in Paris, the organization is tasked with combating money laundering and terrorism financing.
"Regarding potential sanctions evasion, Vietnam has identified 32 bank accounts held by DPRK citizens, primarily embassy employees, which are closely monitored," the report read, using the acronym of North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
It said the State Bank of Vietnam identified a transaction related to a North Korean embassy employee engaged in commercial activity in March 2017, leading to the closure of three-related accounts.
Vietnam has also closed some North Korean businesses, suspended most imports and exports from North Korea and confiscated over 2,000 tons of North Korean coal, it added.
"While there are still full diplomatic relations with the DPRK, Vietnam has committed to implementing U.N. Security Council trade and sectoral sanctions and is taking steps to reduce its exposure to trade with the DPRK," the report read.
(END)
3. Moon says S. Korea will join sanctions against Russia
(LEAD) Moon says S. Korea will join sanctions against Russia | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with remarks, details)
By Kim Deok-hyun
SEOUL, Feb. 24 (Yonhap) -- President Moon Jae-in said Thursday that South Korea will join international sanctions against Russia as he expressed regret over Russia's attack on Ukraine, saying any use of armed force causing human casualties cannot be justified.
Moon also instructed the government to do everything possible to ensure the safety of South Korean nationals in Ukraine after he was briefed on the crisis in the wake of Russia's attack, said Park Soo-hyun, senior presidential secretary for public communication.
"The use of armed forces causing human casualties cannot be justified under any circumstances. Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence must be guaranteed. Any dispute between countries should be resolved not through war but through dialogue and negotiation," Moon was quoted as saying.
"As a responsible member of the international community, the Republic of Korea expresses support for international efforts, including economic sanctions, aimed at curbing armed invasion and resolving the situation peacefully, and will take part in them," he said, referring to South Korea's official name.
Moon called for measures to ensure the safety of South Koreans in Ukraine and minimize economic impacts.
"The government's relevant ministries should be fully prepared and take necessary measures to ensure the safety of overseas Koreans and minimize the impact on the economy and businesses," he said.
Earlier in the day, Russian troops launched attacks on Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin authorized what he called a special military operation despite international calls for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
(END)
4. Another S. Korean wartime sexual slavery victim dies; survivors now at 12
The national psyche of Korea will never forget the horror these women experienced.
Another S. Korean wartime sexual slavery victim dies; survivors now at 12 | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Feb. 24 (Yonhap) -- Another South Korean woman who was forced into sexual slavery by Japan during World War II has died, the gender equality ministry said Thursday, reducing the total number of the country's registered surviving victims to 12.
The woman, whose name was withheld, died on Feb. 17, according to the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. Other information, including her age, was not available.
The bereaved family notified the government of her death after completing funeral services and has requested the victim's identity not be made public, the ministry said.
"It's heartbreaking to witness another victim of the Japanese military's sexual slavery pass away," Gender Equality Minister Chung Young-ai said. "I hope she rests in peace now."
The latest death has brought the number of the country's wartime sexual slavery victims registered with the government down to 12.
Historians estimate up to 200,000 women, mostly from Korea, were forced to work in front-line brothels for Japanese troops during the war.
(END)
5. Nine out of 10 foreign companies are undecided on investing in Korea
Obviously not a good sign.
Nine out of 10 foreign companies are undecided on investing in Korea
Posted February. 24, 2022 07:48,
Updated February. 24, 2022 07:48
Nine out of 10 foreign companies are undecided on investing in Korea. February. 24, 2022 07:48. by Chang-deok Kim drake007@donga.com.
Nine out of 10 foreign companies in Korea have decided not to invest this year or have not made plans yet.
According to a survey by the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) on hiring and investment trends of foreign companies in Korea, 27(26.7%) out of 101 foreign companies said that they did not have any investment plans this year. Also 65 (64.4%) of the surveyed companies replied that they have not made plans yet. The survey was carried out based on foreign invested companies with more than 100 employees.
Seven (8.9%) out of nine companies that have determined investment plans will be maintaining levels similar to last year‘s. Only two companies will be increasing their investment.
The leading reason why companies were unable to increase investment was ‘ongoing COVID-19 situation impacting internal/external economic and industry situations,’ which accounted for 44.1%, followed by other reasons including ‘major investment projects already completed’ (26,5%), ‘excessive regulations undermining business environment’ (5.9%), ‘high corporate tax and lack of incentives make investment environment less attractive’ (2.9%).
Meanwhile, most of the foreign companies have not yet come up with hiring plans as well. According to the survey, 14.9% of the surveyed companies replied that they do not have hiring plans, and 46.5% have not established plans yet. Also, 51.3% of the companies that have hiring plans in place said that they are planning to maintain levels similar with last year, rather than increasing hiring (46.2%). A small number (2.5%) said they are planning to reduce hiring.
“The new government should put policy focus on creating favorable business conditions to expand hiring and investment at companies,” said Kim Bong-man, the head of the FKI’s International Division.
6. U.S. sends fighter jets to Japan in apparent warning to North, China
Thursday
February 24, 2022
U.S. sends fighter jets to Japan in apparent warning to North, China
Two F-35A stealth fighter jets fly over Alaska in this photo from April 21, 2020, provided the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. [U.S. INDO-PACIFIC COMMAND]
In an apparent warning to North Korea and China, the United States has deployed an unspecified number of F-35A stealth fighter jets to Okinawa, Japan, its military said Thursday.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the F-35A jets from the 354th Fighter Wing in Alaska had been moved to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, on Sunday to take part in “integrated air operations.”
Their arrival follows the the U.S. military’s deployment of four B-52 subsonic bomber jets to Guam earlier in the month to partake in training operations with allies and regional partners.
“Their arrival signals the continuing effort to refine the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's warfighting capability through agile combat employment, which supports the National Defense Strategy to develop a more lethal, agile and resilient force,” the Indo-Pacific command said of the F-35A jets.
The U.S. Air Force “uses a flexible theater posture” to “support our allies and partners in a free and open Indo-Pacific theater,” the command said.
Developed by Lockheed Martin in partnership with Northrup Grumman and BAE Systems, the F-35A is the conventional takeoff and landing version of the fifth-generation single-seat, single-engine, stealth combat aircraft.
In addition to conducting surprise air strikes with its ability to evade radar detection, the F-35A is can also carry out electronic warfare, surveillance and reconnaissance missions.
The jet has supersonic top speed of Mach 1.6, or 1,200 miles per hour, with a full weapons load.
The movement of U.S. strategic military assets such as F-35A stealth jets and B-52 bomber jets suggests the country is sending a signal to North Korea and China that it stands ready to deter any major acts of provocation.
Nuclear-armed North Korea has rapidly amped up missile testing since the New Year, conducting seven tests of ballistic and cruise missiles in January alone.
The last test on Jan. 30 was that of an intermediate-range ballistic missile, which experts believe could hit U.S. military assets in Guam, a distance of more than 3,400 kilometers (2,130 miles).
The North’s state media reported that the country’s ruling party Politburo was considering restarting “all previously-suspended activities,” in apparent reference to ending its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and longer range missile testing, which had been in place since late 2017.
Observers of the recalcitrant regime believe that Pyongyang could carry out a major weapons test to coincide with the 110th birthday anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's late grandfather and national founder, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.
Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, where the F-35A jets have been deployed, is also the closest U.S. military base to Taiwan, another subject of escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Mainland China views the self-governing island as a renegade province and says it would not rule out the possibility of using force to bring it under its control should it formally declare independence.
In response to Russia’s armed attack on Ukraine on Thursday morning, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen called for the island to be vigilant, even as the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying claimed the two situations were not equivalent because "Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China."
7. South Korea to pay compensation to spies during Korean War
Better late than never. Many of these men conducted heroic actions. A school teacher just north of the Han RIver Estuary brought his entire high school class to the South after the north attacked.He joined the partisans, received parachute training from American advisors and conducted 61 parachute jumps into the north to collect intelligence and walked back across the front lines every time to bring back intelligence. Now most of these men are passing and we cannot listen to tell their stories anymore.
South Korea to pay compensation to spies during Korean War
This 1951 file photo shows members of the Korea Liaison Office. Korea Times fileSouth Korea will pay out its first batch of compensation to its nationals who participated in U.S. military intelligence operations in North Korea before and during the Korean War, and their bereaved families, the defense ministry said Thursday.
On Wednesday, the ministry convened an internal review panel to make the decision applicable to 160 individuals, including 143 who worked for the Korea Liaison Office (KLO) and other units from 1948 to 1953.
The panel approved 1.57 billion won (US$1.31 million) in financial compensation to the people in line with a recent special act to honor their security contributions.
At that time, the U.S. military recruited them to glean on-the-ground information in North Korean regions as high-tech equipment, such as spy satellites and high-altitude drones, were not available at that time.
In 2007, the National Human Rights Commission of Korea advised the National Assembly and the military to introduce rules to recognize KLO veterans in 2007.
The number of individuals eligible for state compensation stands at around 18,000, according to the ministry. While only 3,200 of them are alive, families of the deceased can also apply for it.
"Considering most of the recipients are in their late 80s, we plan to quickly process it so that we can restore the honor and boost the pride of the people who have made special sacrifices for the country," the ministry said.
South Korea will review more applications accepted through October 2023.
The two Koreas technically remain at war as the 1950-53 war ended with an armistice and a peace treaty has never been signed. (Yonhap)
8. Ukraine conflict, a cautionary tale for security-wary North Korea
But I do not think north Korea is at risk of Russia crossing the 19KM border with the north. (note sarcasm)
One unfortunate lesson for the north is that Ukraine trusted the Russian and US security guarantees when they gave up their Soviet nuclear weapons. The lesson is give up your nuclear weapons and you are vulnerable.
Ukraine conflict, a cautionary tale for security-wary North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, North Korea, Jan. 19, in this photo provided by the North Korean government. Russian President Vladimir Putin's order to send troops into eastern Ukraine could be a reminder of the grim reality for North Korea: A deal to bargain away its nuclear arms could prove to be a scrap of paper anytime in the world of power politics. AP-Yonhap
Russian President Vladimir Putin's order to send troops into eastern Ukraine could be a reminder of the grim reality for North Korea: A deal to bargain away its nuclear arms could prove to be a scrap of paper anytime in the world of power politics.
Defying international pleas, Putin ordered his "peacekeeping" troops into two breakaway regions in Ukraine, Monday, recognizing them as "independent" states ― a move that U.S. President Joe Biden has said amounted to the "beginning of a Russian invasion."
The strongman's military step is now rekindling a debate over the fate of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which the United States, Russia and Britain pledged to offer security assurances to Ukraine in return for its handover of all Soviet-era nuclear weapons.
For Pyongyang, the unfurling crisis in Ukraine might be a grim indication that any future denuclearization deal ― whether that be with Washington or Beijing ― could be as fragile as the Budapest Memorandum, observers said.
"The Ukraine crisis will be yet another historical lesson for North Korea: A weak country is likely to face such a scenario after all," Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said.
"In fact, the North's position has long been that security assurances from major powers are futile, and that is a reason why it has sought to bolster self-reliant capabilities and build its own nuclear force," he added.
The escalating standoff over Ukraine came as nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have remained stalled since the summit between the two countries in Hanoi in 2019 ended without a deal.
People wearing face masks walk on the street near the Pyongyang Railway Station, North Korea, Jan. 27. AP-Yonhap
The North's nuclear quandary has long eluded U.S. administrations partly because the recalcitrant regime has remained doubtful whether any American promises of security assurances can be credible and will remain unaffected by a change of government inherent in a democracy.
The North's such doubts were reinforced when in2018 former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the landmark 2015 Iranian nuclear deal signed under his predecessor, Barack Obama.
Putin's troop dispatch order this week harks back to Russia's 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, which was then cited as an ominous sign that the Budapest arrangement was hanging by a thread.
The 2014 redrawing of the European map and the current Ukrainian crisis have unnerved the U.S. and other allies as they see the two cases as a body blow to the long-held principle: National borders should not be altered by military force.
Amid growing signs of the principle's erosion, the North has gone overboard to sharpen its military edge through a series of advanced missile tests last month, including those of hypersonic and intermediate-range ones.
Pyongyang has also appeared keen on reinforcing its nuclear weapons capabilities, casting them as the "treasured sword." It has expressed a desire to develop tactical nuclear arms while doubling down on diversifying delivery vehicles.
"As North Korea watches the encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the annexation of the Crimea and the ongoing crisis, the regime would find it difficult to abandon its nuclear program, which is like an insurance policy for the North," Kim Tae-hyung, a professor of international politics at Soongsil University, said.
A TV screen at Seoul Station shows a media report on the Ukrainian crisis, Feb. 22. Yonhap
For South Korea, what's happening there may not be something it can write off as a faraway crisis. Beyond its potential economic fallout, the security crisis poses a major geopolitical question of whether to allow what could be a breach of a key international rule: noninterference.
The Seoul government has so far appeared cautious about the issue of joining the U.S.-led campaign to sanction Russia for its latest military operation, while signaling its desire to offer humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
The U.S. and its allies imposed coordinated retaliatory sanctions targeting Russian officials and two key banks while warning of tougher measures to be rolled out in the case of escalation.
A senior official at Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday that Seoul was not considering military support or deployment in connection to the Ukrainian crisis while leaving ambiguity on the sanctions issue.
"Major Western nations have expressed a willingness to join in sanctions. We are also looking at this while leaving various possibilities open," the official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.
As the Biden administration has been striving to rally its regional allies and partners against an assertive China and a nuclear-ambitious North Korea, Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang have appeared to be closing ranks with one another.
For Beijing and Pyongyang, however, the unfolding situations in Ukraine could be a worrisome development given that both have ardently championed the principle of noninterference ― a term they often use to criticize America.
"From the North's perspective, the Russian order to send troops into Ukraine might be an act against its anti-imperialist credo," Park of Ewha Womans University said. "For China that has balked at any acts to meddle in internal affairs, it could be an embarrassing one too." (Yonhap)
9. Jim Rogers still bullish on united Korea
A United Republic of Korea (UROK) (acronym pronounced U-rock)
A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
Jim Rogers still bullish on united Korea
Financial guru warns the next recession is ‘worst in my lifetime’
Published : Feb 24, 2022 - 16:06 Updated : Feb 24, 2022 - 17:38
American investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests, speaks during a key note address at the PyeongChang Peace Forum on Tuesday in Pyeongchang, Gangwon Province. (Penta Press)
PYEONGCHANG, Gangwon Province -- The renowned American investor Jim Rogers still bets on the Korean Peninsula as the most exciting place for investment in the next 20 years once the heavily fortified border opens up, despite no signs of Pyongyang abandoning nuclear weapons and returning to diplomacy with the outside world.
“Once we open the 38th parallel, this is going to be the most exciting country in the world,” Rogers said during an interview with The Korea Herald on the sidelines of the PyeongChang Peace Forum on Tuesday, referring to the heavily fortified border between the two Koreas. “I would like to invest in North Korea, but I am not allowed to now, because I am an American and it’s illegal.”
The 79-year-old investor, however, noted that lifting the demarcation line won’t happen immediately, but could take more than 20 to 25 years.
“You will be a country of 80 million people on the Chinese border, which is a huge market,” said Rogers. “The transportation and railroads of the East Coast and the West Coast would open again. You could tie into the Trans-Siberian Railroad, you could try into the One Belt One Road.”
The Trans-Siberian Railway is a network of railways connecting Moscow with the Russian Far East, while the One Belt One Road, now known as the Belt and Road Initiative, is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature infrastructure development program and foreign policy stretching all continents.
When combining the North’s ample amount of natural resources and disciplined, educated labor force, with the South’s manufacturing capability and money, the peninsula has “enormous opportunities,” he said.
Rogers, however, clarified that he is not necessarily suggesting a political unification, but more of an opened society and market on the peninsula.
Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests and co-founder of the Quantum Fund, has been bullish about opportunities concerning North Korea since 2018 when a series of inter-Korean summits and a historic US-North Korea summit renewed hopes that the reclusive regime is ready to open and engage with the world.
But since the collapse of the Hanoi summit in 2019, nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang has stalled, and meanwhile, the North has recently ramped up tensions with a barrage of missile launches to start this year.
The investor, however, appeared unfazed by Pyongyang’s reluctance for diplomacy and latest hostile acts, noting that the country’s leader Kim Jong-un, who grew up in Switzerland, still wants to open his country.
“(Kim) doesn’t want to live in North Korea, but he has to. He cannot leave, so he is trying to change North Korea,” he said. “My reading is that he would like to make North Korea better and the way to do that is to open the 38th parallel and let all of you get rich together.”
During the interview, Rogers also shared his outlook of the global economy this year, warning that the next looming recession will be the “worst in my lifetime,” due to overleveraging and inflation.
“Inflation is rising, which means interest rates are going to rise again,” he said. “So I would suspect by the end of this year or next, this will come to an end on the economic boom that we’ve had, then we will have a recession ... and the next one will be very bad because there’s so much debt.”
In 2008, the world had an economic problem because of too much debt. Since then, the debts have grown everywhere, including South Korea and China, he said.
“So the next recession has to be the worst in my lifetime because the debt is the worst of my lifetime.”
When asked for advice on investment opportunities, the veteran investor said to invest in what one understands and knows.
“My best hot tip to you is, do not listen to hot tips. Hot tips will ruin you,” he said. “My advice to you is stay with what you know.”
But Rogers also suggested putting money in agriculture, noting countries with strong agricultural development, like Australia, Argentina, Brazil and Canada, are going to get better in the next few years.
“I am buying agriculture to this date. Agriculture is depressed and there are great opportunities.”
He also warned that once the central banks around the world end their money-printing spree, the housing bubble will burst, including in South Korea.
“Once the money printing stops, property in Korea is going to go down a lot because interest rates are going to go higher,” said Rogers. “So all the countries that have real estate bubbles, (including) New Zealand, (South) Korea and Mumbai, they’re going to suffer a lot but agriculture is going to boom.”
10. More and more students in Hyesan are abandoning their studies due to economic difficulties
More indications of the internal problems of north Korea.
More and more students in Hyesan are abandoning their studies due to economic difficulties
Most students who have given up on college are either those from rural areas living in school dormitories or discharged soldiers
The number of college dropouts in Hyesan, Yanggang Province, has been increasing since last year due to economic difficulties caused by the closure of North Korea’s border, Daily NK has learned.
“The number of dropouts from universities in Hyesan has been increasing this year,” a source in Yanggang Province told Daily NK on Monday. “Many students gave up on college because they could not overcome their own economic difficulties and the lack of food resulting from the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic.”
Specifically, the number of students who have withdrawn from the Yangang University of Technology has been continuously increasing since last year, he added.
While there were five to seven dropouts per class in 2021, there have been more than ten students per class who have not returned from the winter break or have officially declared withdrawal this year so far. The source added that the situation at the nearby Hyesan University of Mining is similar.
Most students who have given up on college are either those from rural areas living in school dormitories or discharged soldiers. Many are voluntarily choosing withdrawal from school on account of their poor financial situations.
A view of Hyesan, in North Korea’s Yanggang Province. (Daily NK)
Many university students in Hyesan have long covered their college fees by carrying luggage in train stations or working as couriers for smugglers. The source said that restrictions on inter-regional movement, combined with a decrease in smuggling between North Korea and China, have made it difficult for students to earn money.
One third-year student at the Yanggang University of Technology, surnamed Chae, had received financial help from his parents during the first year of the pandemic. This year, however, he decided to give up on college after seeing that his entire family was struggling to support him, the source said.
“University students are burdened every day with various economic tasks, such as supporting the construction of houses in Pyongyang, the construction work in Samjiyon, and even the Korean People’s Army,” the source said, adding, “It is difficult for anyone to afford college if they have to pay RMB 30 to 50 [USD 4.75 – 7.92] almost everyday.”
According to the source, many students have tried to “self-sufficiently” raise money for college over the past two years, but have ultimately been forced to abandon their studies.
“Given these circumstances, young people are imploring that the border blockade be lifted,” he added.
Translated by Youngheon Kim
11. Sunchon Thermal Power Plant worker vandalizes employee performance chart
Control of the people and preventing resistance and collective action is of paramount concern for the regime.
Excerpts:
However, concerns are being raised by local residents who believe that such an insignificant incident may be used to set an example for others to better adhere to the party’s rules and to be more “disciplined.”
“The decision to go with a legal punishment for simply damaging a bulletin board makes no sense,” said the source. “People are uneasy because they feel that they might be punished for making a small mistake.”
Sunchon Thermal Power Plant worker vandalizes employee performance chart
Some workers at the plant appear to have been under immense pressure due to the government’s excessive push for competition between employees
2022.02.24 3:43pm
North Korean state media published this photo of workers at the Sunchon Thermal Power Plant on Jan. 4. (Rodong Sinmun-News1)
A performance evaluation chart at the Sunchon Thermal Power Plant was recently damaged by a worker at the facility, Daily NK has learned.
“Recently, a worker at the plant vandalized a performance chart on a bulletin board that is on the front gate of the power station,” a source in South Pyongan Province told Daily NK yesterday. “The worker confessed that he committed the act because he was angry about being ranked low on the chart.”
Through continuous progress updates on the country’s five-year economic plan and promotion of the party’s major policies through various media outlets, North Korea has been pushing for more competitiveness between workers and among businesses.
During review periods, performance charts are hung up as a way to show who is doing well and who is not. In addition, party organizations use work performance as a measure of party loyalty in “party life evaluation reports.” Those responsible for poor performance are subject to administrative and even legal punishments.
Some workers at the Sunchon Thermal Power Plant appear to have been under immense pressure due to the government’s excessive push for competition, ultimately pushing one individual to commit an act of vandalism.
“Due to the incident, the power station party committee’s propaganda and agitation department and security department held a general meeting of employees,” the source said. “At this meeting, it was decided to ‘legally punish’ the worker who damaged the bulletin board.”
North Korean authorities perceived the damage to the performance chart as a sign of dissatisfaction with the party’s policies, rather than an individual act of deviant behavior. That explains why the authorities intend to punish the perpetrator strongly – to set an example to others.
However, concerns are being raised by local residents who believe that such an insignificant incident may be used to set an example for others to better adhere to the party’s rules and to be more “disciplined.”
“The decision to go with a legal punishment for simply damaging a bulletin board makes no sense,” said the source. “People are uneasy because they feel that they might be punished for making a small mistake.”
Translated by Gabriela Bernal
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David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
