On November 17, 2021, the LSU Center for Energy Studies released the 2022 edition of the Gulf Coast Energy Outlook (GCEO) via webinar. As in previous years, this fifth edition of the GCEO provides a comprehensive overview of the Gulf Coast region’s energy industry outlook for the upcoming year. David E. Dismukes, executive director and professor, and Greg Upton, associate professor, LSU Center for Energy Studies, authored the report.

Last year’s GCEO addressed COVID-19-related uncertainties and how short-term recovery might evolve. The 2022 GCEO addresses several medium- to longer-term recovery issues, including whether temporary operational adjustments implemented by businesses will persist in a post-pandemic world. The report also considers the impacts of the 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons.

The Center launched the Gulf Coast Energy Outlook 2022 with a Zoom webinar, presented by authors David E. Dismukes and Greg Upton. The YouTube video includes the presentation, as well as the Q&A session at the end.

The Gulf Coast Energy Outlook 2022 was made possible by our sponsors.

White Papers & Reports

In the Louisiana 2021 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, LSU Center for Energy Studies (CES) Executive Director and Professor David E. Dismukes provides quantitative estimates of the state’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by economic sector. The report, an update of the state GHG inventory conducted by CES in 1997 and 2010, was requested by the Louisiana Governor’s Office of Coastal Activities and will serve as a key data tool for the governor’s Climate Initiatives Task Force (CTF) as it considers the implications that climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have for the Louisiana economy and environment.

For the report, Dismukes uses methodologies and modeling established by the Environmental Protection Agency and follows guidelines set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “cross-sectional” analysis, or snapshot, in time identifies where each major Louisiana economic sector stands in terms of its GHG emissions. Dismukes describes the inventory estimation process as a “top-down” analysis, as it estimates emissions across broad economic sectors and activities.

Throughout the investigative process, Dismukes worked with the Office of the Governor, various stakeholders, and the CTF Scientific Advisory Group to identify and estimate carbon emission sources and sinks in Louisiana. The report provides estimates of GHG emissions by activity type, economic sector, and GHG pollutant type, and estimates all three across a broad time period, 2000-2018.

The global COVID-19 pandemic has shifted, and continues to shift, human behavior in ways that would have been difficult to imagine in 2019. In a new white paper, Center for Energy Studies Assistant Professor Cody Nehiba examines the transportation sector to provide valuable insights into the economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic, how we have adjusted the way we live and work, and what changes may become permanent. He offers an overview of the dramatic effects of the pandemic on the movement of people and goods, with a focus on Louisiana.

Nehiba finds that as of August 2021, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which fell almost 40% in April 2020 relative to April 2019, has largely recovered. Mileage remains lower than pre-pandemic levels and, though still increasing, may not reach those levels in the near future. While mileage is down from long-run trends, the relatively high level of VMT over the summer of 2021 compared to previous months increased fuel demand and prices. Interestingly, Nehiba reports, the pandemic may have had a long-run effect on fuel consumption, as Americans have begun shifting automobile purchases from light trucks to more fuel efficient automobiles.

Data show that, like vehicle travel, air transportation and tourism numbers have been increasing, but remain persistently lower than prior to the pandemic. The rapid increase in air passengers over the summer of 2021 posed challenges for the industry, as flight delays and cancellations propagated throughout the system due in part to employee shortages and work hour restrictions. And finally, freight services appear to have weathered the pandemic with relatively minor disruption relative to other areas of the transportation sector.

Faculty Engagement

This year, the Center’s faculty have presented research in person and remotely on topics ranging from the Gulf Coast Energy Outlook (for both 2021 and 2022), Louisiana’s greenhouse gas emissions and trends, how drivers respond to fuel costs across the hours of the day, electricity market restructuring and retail rates, health physics careers, and more. Several presentations are available upon request.

In September, Associate Professor Greg Upton presented at the 5th Annual Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Workshop for Commodities and Macroeconomics, hosted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Participants included an international group of central bankers and academics who are researchers in the economics of commodities.

Upton discussed his paper, coauthored with LSU Professor of Economics Bulent Unel, “Oil & Gas Induced Economic Fluctuations and Self-Employment.” In the paper, Unel and Upton find that self-employment is procyclical, i.e. self-employment increases during a business cycle expansion and is reduced during a contraction. The effect comes entirely from unincorporated self-employed workers and explains an economically meaningful share of the employment adjustment: Approximately 8 to 9 percent of the employment adjustment comes from unincorporated self-employed individuals, a group that makes up about 6 percent of total employment.

In the News

CES faculty have been interviewed by and/or quoted in media outlets more than 100 times thus far this year. Interview topics have included last year’s and this year’s Gulf Coast Energy Outlook, Louisiana’s greenhouse gas emissions, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, the closing of the Belle Chasse oil refinery, recent clean energy project announcements, industrial decarbonization plans, Hurricane Ida impacts, and more....

Members of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics (USAEE) have elected CES Associate Professor Gregory B. Upton, Jr., to its 2022 Executive Council. The council, which meets quarterly, guides the strategy and leadership decision making for the organization. USAEE Past President Amy Jaffe nominated Upton for position of council member at large.

The USAEE, the largest affiliate of the International Association for Energy Economics, provides a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience, and issues among professionals interested in energy economics. Neither a lobbying organization nor an advocacy group, the policy-neutral USAEE focuses on advancing the understanding and application of economics across all facets of energy development and use.

Upton’s term begins January 1, 2022.