THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON
December 10, 2021
Welcome to the Georgia edition of This Week in Washington. Thank you for your interest in politics and policy from the Peach State to the Potomac.
 
We lost Bob Dole – a giant of a man who was one of the last of the Greatest Generation. His passing brought back memories for Steve Gordon and so many others of working with Leader Dole, and of a different time. Steve has included many of those memories in his tribute to Senator Dole.
 
Congressman Kevin Brady served as Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and played an oversized role in passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. He is currently the Ranking Member of Ways and Means and is a masterful legislator on the issues before this committee. Congressman Erik Paulsen spent some time with his friend and former colleague, and his interview with Congressman Brady is in today’s Total Spectrum Spotlight.
 
Everyone is counting down the days until Christmas, and one can start to see how this legislative year might conclude. Minority Leader McConnell and Majority Leader Schumer have worked out a way that Democrats can take the lead and pass a debt ceiling bill. There is every reason to believe that there will be a short-term continuing resolution to keep the government open. Ultimately the National Defense Authorization Act needs to pass, so it probably will, but the how is a little weaker than the why. Al Jackson elaborates on the defense authorization bill in his Defense Update. Ramona Lessen provides a report on a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on U.S.-Russia Policy. Jesse Weathington gives us the latest in Georgia with his Gold Dome Report. Be sure to check out the Infographs for an in-depth look at current hot topics.
 
Majority Leader Schumer wrote a letter to his Democratic colleagues on December 6th. He wanted a vote on the Senate floor on the President’s Build Back Better bill before Christmas, but there has not been a great deal of progress. The Senate Parliamentarian is currently reviewing the bill to determine which parts of it are appropriate for a budget reconciliation bill, and Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) will have time to review and mold the bill after the Parliamentarian has made their decisions. Smart money is predicting that the Build Back Better/Reconciliation bill will be kicked into next year.
 
The Senate and the House are scheduled to begin their Christmas recess on December 13th. Our bet is that Congress will complete all they can and leave the remainder until 2022.
 
We will be back next week for our year end wrap-up issue of This Week in Washington.
 
As always… stay safe, healthy, AND sane.

Todd Smith
Chairman, Georgia Group

Jesse Weathington
Director, Georgia Group
Remembering Senator Bob Dole
By Steve Gordon, Total Spectrum Managing Partner
 
Everyone who was in Washington, D.C. in the 1980s and 1990s has stories and recollections about Republican Leader Bob Dole, and I’m no exception. He was a man who was raised in the Depression and was maimed for life in World War II, but who used courage and determination to overcome his injuries and become a master of the U.S. Senate.
 
He died Sunday at age 98.
 
I first met Senator Bob Dole in the autumn of 1984, when he traveled to Minnesota to be the special guest at a fundraising event for my boss and mentor Senator Rudy Boschwitz. Senator Dole was at that time one of a gaggle of Senators who wanted to replace Howard Baker (R-TN) as the Senate Majority Leader.
 
Senator Dole was a familiar name to most of us in Minnesota. He had been Chairman of the National Republican Committee from 1971 to 1973, and in 1976 President Ford selected him to be his Vice-Presidential nominee. Senator Dole served on both the Senate Agriculture and Finance Committees, both of which are critically important to Minnesotans.
 
About 250 people came out on a bitter cold winter day in Minnesota to support Senator Boschwitz and to hear Senator Dole, and I don’t remember anyone leaving disappointed. Senator Dole had the audience in the palm of his hand from the minute he walked into the room. He was tall and well dressed, with the trademark pen in his damaged right hand. He spoke with a flat-Kansas accent and won over the crowd with his smile and razor-sharp wit.
 
Senator Boschwitz won his reelection campaign that November. Senator Dole defeated Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana and Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska to become the next Majority Leader.
 
I was honored to work closely with the Leader and his team for many years and served as an occasional consultant and a consistent advisor to his political operation.
 
Bob Dole was a product of growing up poor in Kansas during the Depression, where he learned about hard work and determination. He was severely wounded in 1945 and came home mostly paralyzed in a body cast. He spent over three years recovering from his injuries, and always credited a Chicago surgeon for getting him back on his feet. But he would never have any use of his right arm, only modest feeling in his left hand, and he was in constant pain.
 
...continued after the Gold Dome Report
Partner and
Georgia Group Chairman

Partner and
Georgia Group Director


Partner

Partner
Total Spectrum Spotlight:
Congressman Kevin Brady
This week, Total Spectrum's Erik Paulsen interviews Texas Congressman Kevin Brady. With this being his last year in office, they reflect on his 24+ years in Congress, discuss current events, and pay tribute to Senator Bob Dole.
INFOGRAPHS
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Covid-19 tracker: Omicron variant reaches 50 countries, 19 U.S. states
Pfizer leads by Covid-19 vaccine type as Omicron spreads
What you need to know about
Raising the Debt Ceiling to Avoid Default
What you need to know about The Future Of Congestion Pricing
Labor force participation up even as more people quit their jobs
U.S. has donated less than a quarter of promised vaccine doses
Gold Dome Report
by Jesse Weathington, Partner and Georgia Group Director

“Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.” The King in Henry IV, Part 2 (3.1.31)

If the 2022 election cycle were a stage-play, this week the drama entered its second act. The players are set, the lines are drawn, and the race has begun in earnest. Stacey Abrams has at last declared her candidacy for a rematch against Governor Brian Kemp. The Democratic contest will be no contest at all, leaving Abrams and her allies free to prepare for the general election. While only one incumbent governor of Georgia has ever lost re-election, this cycle offers the unique twist of a Republican civil war. Why will Georgia once again be front and center in the nation’s political life for the foreseeable future? Because Kemp and Abrams are both much higher profile than in 2018, Joe Biden’s agenda hangs in the balance, and Donald Trump just can’t seem to keep Georgia off his mind.

In contrast to Abrams’ coronation, the Republican contest is shaping up to feature all the hallmarks of an internecine bloodbath. The entry of former U.S. Senator David Perdue into the GOP primary this week against the incumbent and at the behest of the former President was also long telegraphed. Vernon Jones has not proven to be a serious challenger for Mr. Kemp, and the MAGA wing of the GOP had not found a credible opponent until Mr. Perdue threw his hat into the ring. Republican primary voters will have a whole slate of Mar-a-Lago endorsed candidates running in contested primaries and will answer the question of how strong former President Donald Trump’s hold on the GOP remains. Challenging an incumbent governor, even for a former senator, is a tall order.

The coming elections are experiments designed to answer the twin questions of how to win in a post-Trump political era, and what lessons to take from the U.S. Senate run-offs won by Senators Warnock and Ossoff last January. The state GOP response to President Joe Biden’s narrow win in 2020 had a direct impact on the outcome of the run-offs in 2021. Did conspiratorial rhetoric turn off enough voters to make a difference in the run-off? How many voters split tickets? Donald Trump (for and against) was the main factor in voters’ minds in 2020; will he loom as large in 2022?

How to draw the correct conclusions to these questions and adapt moving forward are the keys to statewide electoral success in the 2020s, especially since redistricting is not likely to result in a significant partisan shift in the legislative balance of power.

The Kemp and Perdue camps offer competing answers, but it is too early to tell. One school of thought suggests that without the full-throated support of Trump, a Republican can’t win statewide. The other holds that statewide success lies in moving past Trump and Trumpism (tough in the primary). The question can be framed another way: does the base-turnout theory still hold sway or are there persuadable voters in the center that will decide the outcome? If negative partisanship remains the dominant factor in voter decisions, Trump’s ire towards Kemp may not prove fatal. If Trump’s die-hard supporters stay-home, Abrams and Warnock at the top of a ticket may be enough to re-create the coalition that brought Biden and the two Democratic Senators over the finish line. Additional food for thought: will the Libertarian candidate once again force a run-off in the event neither the GOP nominee nor Abrams secures a majority?

Act Two typically involves the gradual heightening of the drama until the conflict reaches a climax. There is still a legislative session to come, but the key players are now on the stage. The primary will be brutal, and the winner of the GOP contest will have to stagger into Act Three for the final denouement; the question remains whether this play winds up a farce or a tragedy.
Remembering Senator Bob Dole, cont'd.

Washington is full of show horses. Senator Dole was proud to be a work horse. He knew the Senate rules and procedures and cast over 12,000 votes. His conservative philosophy didn’t always fit into the supply-side economics of the 1980s, and he didn’t always agree with Speaker Newt Gingrich. But Senator Dole was a skilled legislator who didn’t think that compromise was always a bad thing, and he often joked that a 60% victory was still a victory.
 
He was a consistent conservative who felt there were some things that government just had to do. He worked with a bipartisan group in 1983 to stabilize the Social Security Trust Fund. He opposed cuts in the food stamp program, and he championed the Americans with Disabilities Act in 1990.
 
Senator Dole did have a sharp tongue, but he also had a great wit. The Senate Agriculture Committee was working on a Farm Bill, and he brought up an amendment to get rid of locusts that were attacking Kansas. After it passed, he told a friend with a twinkle in his eye that “…we took the hopper out of those little hoppers.”
 
I have three mental pictures of Senator Dole burned into my memory. The first was his farewell speech when he resigned from the Senate in 1996 to campaign full time for the Presidency. The second was about 10 years later when we were together at a funeral for a mutual friend. It was the first time I witnessed him needing two staffers to help him stand. The third picture is of a wheelchair-bound Bob Dole paying his last respects to President George H. W. Bush – being held up by aides as he saluted the coffin with his left hand.
 
Senator Dole took a lead in creating the World War II Memorial on the National Mall, and then he led the push to complete the Eisenhower Memorial.
 
Bob Dole was indeed part of the Greatest Generation. But his commitment to country, strength of character, integrity, and uncommon common sense will remain North Stars for many future generations.
 
He will lie in state at the Capitol on Thursday, and a funeral service will be held at the Washington Cathedral on Friday. Additional services are being planned in his native Kansas.
 
Rest in peace Leader Dole, and thank you for your service.
Defense Update
By Al Jackson, Total Spectrum Strategic Consultant
 
The House just passed a compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)and sent it to the Senate for consideration. Leadership in both chambers hope this version of the NDAA bill will not be amended, as only days remaining in the legislative year with the House planning to adjourn this Friday. 
 
The legislation endorses a $25 billion increase over the defense budget request for Fiscal Year 2022, bringing the top line number to $768 billion for national defense, of which $28 billion funds Energy Department nuclear weapons programs. The House voted 363-70 to approve the NDAA, which was finalized earlier in the day by negotiators with the House and Senate Armed Services committees. Nineteen Republicans and 51 Democrats voted no. 
 
The bill includes an additional 12 F/A-18 Super Hornets for the Navy; five more Boeing F-15EX jets than the request for 17 total; and 13 ships total, which includes two attack submarines and two destroyers, totaling five more than the request. The bill also includes an authorization of funding for 48 new F-35s. The bill has now been passed for 60 years in a row, and defense lawmakers warned that failing to pass the bill this year would negatively impact the Pentagon’s modernization efforts to counter the growth of Chinese military aggression.
 
Now the bill heads to the Senate, where there’s some bipartisan resistance to the “weakened” military justice reform provisions. The two most prominent changes in the compromise legislation relate to military justice reforms and the issue of women being required to register with the Selective Service System. In the compromise plan, the Defense Department would create an independent prosecutorial office within each service to handle some serious crimes, including rape, sexual assault, murder, manslaughter, and kidnapping. The intent of the legislation is to ensure those crimes are handled by specially trained officials, rather than military commanders unfamiliar with the legal specifics.
 
It’s unclear whether the Senate, like the House, will approve the bill without considering more amendments. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is leading a small bipartisan group that is unhappy with compromise military justice provisions after pushing for stronger reforms to combat sexual assault in the ranks. They’re calling for their reform bill, which previously garnered strong support in both chambers, to get a new vote in the Senate. That legislation created broader reforms that would involve all serious crimes being taken away from the traditional military chain of command.  Senator Gillibrand stated that the compromise language is “a major setback on behalf of service members, women and survivors in particular,” because it did not go far enough to take authority for the prosecution of serious crimes away from military commanders. However, Senator Gillibrand did not say if she would work to block passage of the NDAA. House and Senate lawmakers have also backed plans to add women to potential future military drafts, saying that the current male-only system is antiquated given that women now can serve in all military jobs.
 
In another victory for Georgia, Congress once again denied the U.S. Air Force’s request to retire the A-10 Warthog in the NDAA. There are presently 281 A-10 aircraft in service. However, the Air Force will be allowed to retire more than 160 legacy aircraft of other types, helping to free up funding for new technologies. The list of aircraft includes certain C-130s, KC-10s and KC-135s. 
 
While the NDAA legislation sets policy and authorizes funds, it does not appropriate the money the Pentagon spends. Congress recently averted a government shutdown by passing another continuing resolution (CR), funding the government until February 18, 2022. Some Congressional leaders have suggested a full yearlong CR, which prompted Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to issue a statement on December 6 indicating a yearlong CR would cause “enormous, if not irreparable, damage” to national defense priorities. 
 
As it relates to the Fiscal Year 2022 budget, the Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC), contrary to the administration’s proposed budget, increased funding for the Pentagon by $24 billion with a focus on countering China, improving facilities and infrastructure across the services, and advancing technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning. The bill’s largest adds include an additional $2.5 billion to counter the China buildup; specifically, it includes funding for the Marine Corps Force Design 2030 efforts, accelerating INDO-PACOM missile tracking capabilities, funding for the Homeland Defense Radar-Hawaii and Guam Defense System, and $100 million to establish the Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve to “accelerate real-world demonstrations of innovative technologies.” The Marine Corps Force Design 2030 initiative is designed to make that fighting force more expeditionary to meet the increasing threats in the Indo-Pacific region. 
 
Senate appropriators also provided various increases for artificial intelligence (AI), cyber and microelectronics capabilities which includes a $500 million program to increase adoption of AI at combatant commands.  It would provide the ever-evolving Space Force with $17.9 billion for military personnel, operations, and acquisition accounts, which is a 16% increase over last year’s enacted budget. The fourth big focus area in the SAC’s bill is $1.6 billion of additional funding for infrastructure and facilities sustainment across the services. The Navy’s shipyard revitalization program, for example, would see its $280 million request increased by $480 million total, split as $180 million for facility renovations and $300 million for additional equipment.
 
The majority of the Pentagon’s topline is included in the Senate’s new bill, which provides the military with $725 billion. However, Senate appropriators funded military construction and Veterans’ Affairs in a separate bill that includes roughly $10 billion. That brings the Senate’s total Pentagon topline to around $735 billion, including $24 billion in additional funding. The three other congressional committees overseeing the Pentagon’s budgets have made similar proposals coming in around a $740 billion topline. Some of the major cuts include eliminating $3.3 billion that would have gone to the Afghan Security Forces Fund, an obvious result of the U.S. withdrawal from the country and subsequent collapse of the Afghan government’s army.
Hearing Report
By Ramona Lessen, Executive Director, Total Spectrum
 
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing Update on U.S.-Russia Policy
Tuesday, December 7, 2021; 2:30 p.m.
 
To view a live stream of the hearing please click here.
 
Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Chairman
 
Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), Ranking Member
 
Witness:
The Honorable Victoria Nuland
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
U.S. Department of State
Washington, D.C.
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