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PDF | Research | Week of July 3, 2023

Quote of the Week

“This shift in macro and market conditions will mark the first sector-wide test of

non-bank private credit lenders’ ability to manage through recession and

an increase in borrower defaults.”

– Christina Padgett, head of leveraged finance research and analytics, Moody’s.

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A Loan for All Seasons (Last of a Series)

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Both veterans and newcomers to the asset class are familiar with the basics of private debt benefits. Thanks to its premium yield over liquid credit and consistent returns across economic, rate, and market cycles, investors have moved briskly into non-traded credit since the GFC.


Still, as we’ve seen and heard on several continents and at many gatherings and conferences this year, there remain unanswered questions. In the past two weeks we’ve addressed timing and defaults. This week we wrap up with what seems to be the overriding issue – liquidity.


In a way, this concern is the most surprising. After all, isn’t it fundamental to the asset class? If you truly understand what makes private debt tick, then you know it’s not like liquid credit. There’s no ready secondary market because issue size is smaller, issues are private and not rated, and top arrangers are buy-and-hold managers...

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2023 Market Sizing & Impact Study

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Learn why secured finance is the Industry you should be following. (View report summary)

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Chart of the Week

60/40 Hindsight

Investors go beyond traditional equities/fixed income models to include alternatives.

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Source: Nuveen (illustrates a hypothetical portfolio allocation across a broad selection of asset classes not reflecting any specific portfolio or financial market benchmark.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / S&P Global Market Intelligence

PDI Picks

Filling the void in venture lending

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Lending to growth and venture-backed firms has been challenging in early 2023, but there are signs of change...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

1H23 U.S. loan volume down 18% y-o-y;

2Q23 totals down 32% y-o-y

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Bruising market volatility marked by higher interest rates, increased regulatory scrutiny of large corporate M&A deals and lender expectations of greater regulatory oversight among reigonal banks contributed to a significant slow...

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Contact: Maria Dikeos / Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

PE’s impending maturity wall

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Private equity’s stunted exit market is now several quarters old, and it comes on the heels of a historic run of deal activity. A new PitchBook analyst note looks ahead to an “impending maturity wall” and the ripple effects...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Kelly Thompson / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Latest Performance Trends for U.S. MM CLOs

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Defaulted and deferring exposure across MM CLOs remained low at 0.7% in 1Q23, while deferrables stood at 6.4%. Exposure to assets rated ‘CCC+’ or below by Fitch Issuer Default Rate Equivalency Rating...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Share of New-Issue Institutional Loans

with a Pick-Your-Poison Provision by Quarter,

PE-Backed vs. All

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper
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Private Debt Intelligence

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Artificial Intelligence in private debt

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Although there is a tendency to tag anything as ‘AI’ when possible, it can’t be denied that the technology is making waves. Globally this year, over a third of aggregate deal value raised in private debt went to deals with...

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Contact: Laura Messchendorp / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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Source: VanEck BDC Income ETF, BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Effective Yield and US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

Select Deals in the Market

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.