Welcome to the Georgia edition of This Week in Washington. Thank you for your interest in politics and policy from the Peach State to the Potomac.

Heard on the Hill covers last week’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey – the outcome of each election, and the impact that their surprise outcomes are already having on legislative activity and the plans for next November’s off-year elections. It also reviews the suspense in the House of Representatives before the bipartisan infrastructure bill finally passed and highlights two very recent economic reports – one that is encouraging and one that is concerning.

Kia Motors has a strong presence in the United States with investment and jobs at its manufacturing plant in West Point, Georgia. In this week’s Total Spectrum Spotlight, our colleague and friend Congressman Erik Paulsen interviews Christopher Wenk, Vice President of Government Affairs at Kia, discussing how policies in Washington impact the industry and what we can expect to see in electric and autonomous vehicle innovation.

Jesse Weathington gives us the latest in Georgia with his Gold Dome Report. Be sure to check out the Infographs for an in-depth look at current hot topics.

Jesse Weathington

By Steve Gordon, Total Spectrum Managing Director

The Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia is a four-year position with the possibility of a second term, but the two terms can’t be successive. Republicans controlled the Governor’s mansion during the 1970’s, most of the 1990’s, and from 2010 through 2013. Democrats held the position in the 1980’s, the first two years of the 1990’s, most of the 2000’s, and since 2014. Virginia was reliably Republican in presidential elections through most of the last half of the 20^th century and through the 2004 election. But Virginia has voted Democrat in each presidential election since 2008. President Biden carried Virginia in 2020 by 451,000 votes (54% to 44%), and he never once set foot in the state.

Kia Motors Vice President of Government Affairs Christopher Wenk discusses U.S. auto manufacturing and the future of electric and autonomous vehicles with Congressman Erik Paulsen.

What you need to know about Obamacare Enrollment

by Jesse Weathington, Partner and Georgia Group Director

This week under the Gold Dome Georgia’s House and Senate largely completed work on the district maps that will determine the lay of the land for the next decade. As always, some eggs were broken to make the omelet, but both proposals reflect the growing demographic clout of metropolitan Atlanta, with multiple rural districts currently held by incumbents being dissolved and recreated around the urban core. Notably, several incumbents have been paired in potential head-to-head matchups, while others have had reliable partisan majorities eroded. Retirements or runs for higher office have made the redistricting work easier, and it is likely that several more incumbents may elect not run for re-election between now and qualifying rather than face a tough primary or general election on new territory.

 

The focus will now shift to the congressional maps where Republicans will hope to pick up a seat during the midterms by making marginal districts more competitive, likely the 6^th or 7^th, as we have previously noted in this space. The recent local elections hold some lessons for the midterms, and much has been made about Virginia’s gubernatorial election, but neither are true previews of the contest to come. Most notably, and to the surprise of this observer, the Atlanta Mayor’s race has gone to a run-off, but without former Mayor Kasim Reed. Instead, Council President Felicia Moore exceeded expectations and Councilman Andre Dickens narrowly edged out Reed. The winner will need to immediately move to snuff out the Buxit movement under the Gold Dome, where the Buckhead City folks have built up support for advancing the referendum through general rather than local legislation, which would circumvent the area’s delegation, which does not support the move.

Heard on the Hill, cont'd.

The externals were all on Youngkin’s side. It’s typical for the party out of power in Washington to get a bounce in the off-year elections following a Presidential election, and this year is no different. President Biden’s favorability polls are in the low 40%’s. Democrats control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and both their actions and inactions created the perfect storm. Many suburban independents who voted against President Trump in 2020 didn’t like the progressive politics coming out of Congress. Virginia Democrats – especially liberals and progressives – were looking for tangible legislative progress from President Biden and a Democratic Congress and were disappointed. Republicans were enthused about the possibility of retaking the Governor’s office.

Education is a major issue. Concerns about public school education were emphasized when kids and parents were home together during the pandemic.

The 2020 election was a referendum on President Trump; this election was a referendum on President Biden and the Democratic Congress. Elections are always about the future.

Get out the Vote Programs don’t cost – they pay. McAuliffe still carried the blue northern Virginia suburbs, but by a smaller margin. Conversely, the red rural counties got redder. President Biden lost the rural counties of Virginia by six points in 2020, but McAuliffe lost the rural counties by 27 points in 2021.