Are you thinking about buying next year?...
So is everyone else.
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I have some clients waiting for a crash, or prices to go down; this is a low probability, especially at the current pace of deal volume. Please wish me luck…and patience, as I will be showing these dear clients apartments for the next 5 years until they quit or realize they can’t afford it anymore. What always follows is a manifestation of I “could’ve, should’ve…ah, I didn’t”. This might sound like tough love, but it’s literally the reality that we, as brokers, see and talk about every day. For some buyers, this is an inside scoop of what your broker has really been trying to delicately explain to you for years now. One colleague of mine said, “look, if it was that great of a deal, it would never hit the market or leave this office, as one of us would seize that opportunity.”
Buying real estate is about 1) creating a home (and there is no value that can be put on that); 2) diversification and 3) creating wealth. The third part takes time; it should be viewed similarly to the concept of “dollar cost averaging.” The earlier you get in, the more TIME you have to build that wealth; you can begin to chip away at paying off that asset and building equity…and that equity, again…over time, appreciates. In the end, probability would indicate those who get in early will have made the better bet; it’s the age old concept of the early bird gets the worm.
So before many pack up for summer let’s see where we are. Oddly, some properties sell and some don’t, for no particular reason at times; consequently, there is a bit of randomness in the market and it has served up a bit of confusion. This is a marketplace we’ve not seen before. In 25 years I’ve seemingly not experienced so many confusing and critical economic and political forces influencing the purchasing process. The customary “rules of thumb” we’ve seen in prior markets aren’t necessarily holding true. The market is muddled.
Regardless, April’s lull made for a delayed seasonal surge in contracts in May. Like it or not, we are in a “new normal” of interest rates and pricing. Interest rates have doubled and prices have come down/moderated 5-10% depending upon which segment of the market you are in. Those who have accepted this new reality are succeeding in this marketplace and deals are happening…many deals. So we must identify the cycle we are in right now. I have found no better chart* to depict where we are at the moment than the one below by Marketproof and Noah & John from UrbanDigs.
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* I credit Jared Antin for bringing this one to my attention. |
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Remember that nearly 60% of our deals right now are all-cash purchases. Not only are these buyers not as affected by the higher interest rates, they are simultaneously taking advantage of the lower prices. They are the primary drivers of demand, meaning the market is not waiting for those who are sitting on the sidelines. Interestingly, the new buyers who have entered the marketplace have a psychological advantage to those who have been looking for more than a year; they are far less jaded. These new buyers never witnessed 3% interest rates; they don’t even understand what that means. The old buyers, however, look as if they have been through a battle; they are battered and depressed, as the doubling of interest rates has made homes, that were once a consideration, no longer affordable.
It's impossible to predict the future, but we are optimistic. Yes, rates are higher than they were, but fair. They will likely remain at their current level for some time, before falling in 2024, when everybody will be jumping in. Keep i mind that the greatest barrier into the Manhattan market is not the price; it's the competition. The fact is opportunity exists right now; you simply have to employ the right strategies for your own unique circumstances.
I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
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An Art Collector’s Manhattan Mansion
Sells for $41 Million
I am pleased to share my client's recent purchase of 12 East 82nd Street an extraordinary mansion, just half a block from the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
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...as featured in The Wall Street Journal's "Mansion Deals Alert" section:
A Manhattan townhouse tied to art collector David Mugrabi
has sold for $41 million, records show.
The most recent asking price was $45 million. The buyer was represented by Roberto Cabrera of Brown Harris Stevens, who declined to identify his client but said he is a European art collector. “He literally felt this house was a piece of art,” Mr. Cabrera said. Read more.
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The property is currently listed for rent for $95,000 per month.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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This is an amazing "must watch" discussion w/ Amir Korangy of The Real Deal & Jeff Blau of Related Companies.
Pay particular attention to:
30:00-32:00 - 421a & "Rent Control" &
34:10-37:14 - Everyone MUST VOTE.
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Welcome to CitySnap, Manhattan’s the most comprehensive search engine for residential real estate. Where the information is actually REAL and provided by the original sources. Join me!
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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The story remains the same out east with light deal volume, especially over the past holiday weekend. With so few properties to sell one might think of spiking prices, but prices seem fairly stable. So those looking to buy may have to rent for the time being, but there is choice in this sector right now. So get a place and get out there !!
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity for you and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area,
around the country and even globally.
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Thursday's from 3-4pm
See you then.
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* What representation looks like * |
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Click on each respective image to see video. |
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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"Purchasing Power"
What a difference a year makes.
Example below reflects the difference in purchasing power between:
3% vs. 6%
$1M borrowed at 3% = $4,216/month
$1M borrowed at 6% = $5,996/month
That is a difference of $1,780/month or $21,360/year
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 3%, $4,216/month will afford you a $1,000,000 mortgage.
At 6%, $4,216/month only affords you a $703,200 mortgage.
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Second-Half 2021 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here
Other Markets:
Hoboken/Jersey City 1rst Quarter (2023): click here
Miami's Luxury Condo Report 4th Quarter: click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Van Gogh's Cypresses
May 22nd - August 27th, 2023
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"Van Gogh’s Cypresses is the first exhibition to focus on the trees—among the most famous in the history of art—immortalized in signature images by Vincent van Gogh (1853–1890). Such iconic pictures as Wheat Field with Cypresses and The Starry Night take their place as the centerpiece in a presentation that affords an unprecedented perspective on a motif virtually synonymous with the Dutch artist’s fiercely original power of expression. Some 40 works illuminate the extent of his fascination with the region’s distinctive flamelike evergreens as they successively sparked, fueled, and stoked his imagination over the course of two years in the South of France: from his initial sightings of the “tall and dark” trees in Arles to realizing their full, evocative potential (“as I see them”) at the asylum in Saint-Rémy.
Juxtaposing landmark paintings with precious drawings and illustrated letters—many rarely, if ever, lent or exhibited together—this tightly conceived thematic exhibition offers an extraordinary opportunity to appreciate anew some of Van Gogh’s most celebrated works in a context that reveals the backstory of their invention for the first time."
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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The broiled scallop at Libertine. | Evan Sung/Libertine |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list: Libertine, the latest French restaurant to open, part of a new wave, and, Mabu Cafe, a Hong Kong-style cafe with lines that have followed.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Cook along with chef Rob Rosenthal as he shows you how to create delicious, wholesome, vegetable-forward dishes from Greece, Israel, Italy, and beyond.
Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Upcoming Courses include:
Note: These are live, virtual courses hosted by Roundtable, which include interactive opportunities and post-course recordings available for all course participants.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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Curate provides you with the ability to prepare your home for sale
with no up-front costs,100% payable at closing.
Services include Cleaning/Decluttering, Renovation, Staging & Design
and more. Contact me and/or click here to learn more.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
1926 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
(917) 701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals.
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