Quotes of the Day:
“When your time comes to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with death, so that when their time comes they weep and prayer a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way.Sing your death song, and die like the hero going home."
- Tecumseh, Shawnee Leader
“I was heaping scorn on an inexcusably silly idea - a practice I shall always follow. Anyone who clings to the historically untrue and thoroughly immoral doctrine that violence never settles anything I would advise to conjure up the ghosts of Napoleon Bonaparte and the Duke of Wellington and let them debate it. The ghost of Hitler could referee and the jury might well be the Dodo, the Great Auk and the passenger pigeon. Violence , naked force, has settled more issues in history than any other factor, and the contrary opinion is wishful thinking at its worst. Breeds that forget this basic truth have always paid for it with their lives and their freedoms."
- Robert A. Heinlein, Starship Troopers
“ Nothing is falser than people’s preconceptions and ready-made opinions; nothing is sillier than their sham morality.
- Petronius, Roman courtier
1. N. Korean cargo train arrives in Chinese city of Dandong: sources
2. Ruling party's presidential candidate eyes 'de facto' unification with N. Korea
3. North sends train to China after nearly two years of isolation
4. U.S. blasts North's railway-borne missile test
5. Don’t look up? (Oped on nK missile tests)
6. North Korea's missile launches aimed at diversifying arsenal: experts
7. Pyongyang missiles hint at long-term standoff with US
8. Ruling party's presidential candidate vows to resume tourism to Mount Kumgang
9. North Korea is testing hypersonic weapons. Should the West be worried?
10. DPRK warns against new sanctions
11. Reading Kim Jong Un the right way
12. ‘Second thoughts’: what makes North Korean defectors want to go back?
13. Americans are just learning what people in East Asia already know about masks.
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1. N. Korean cargo train arrives in Chinese city of Dandong: sources
Consistent with the party statements. Will this be the safety vae that can provide relief for the Korean people in the north? We will not know until we see how this affects the markets. Will the regime allow trade and market activity in a way that will help the people or will the regime try to centrally control the markets and exploit them only for the regime's benefit?
(2nd LD) N. Korean cargo train arrives in Chinese city of Dandong: sources | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with details in last 2 paras)
BEIJING/SHENYANG, Jan. 16 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean freight train crossed the Yalu River railroad bridge into China on Sunday, multiple sources said, raising the prospect of the two sides resuming land transactions in earnest following more than a year of suspension attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The train from Sinuiju arrived in the Chinese border city of Dandong at around 9:10 a.m., they said, while it was not immediately confirmed whether it carried cargo or was empty, they said.
It is likely to return to North Korea on Monday, with "emergency materials" loaded, according to a source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
It marks the first time that the secretive North has formally opened its land border with China in 1 1/2 years. It has closed borders, with all tour programs for foreigners and the operation of cross-border passenger trains halted, since the COVID-19 outbreak.
"It means that the exchange of materials (between North Korea and China) has formally got under way in effect," a government source said, adding that the shipments of medical supplies and daily necessities will likely be resumed.
The train service came ahead of such key events as the Lunar New Year, which falls on Feb. 1 this year, the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics on Feb. 4 and the Feb. 16 birthday of Kim Jong-il, the late father of the current leader Kim Jong-un.
Also drawing keen attention is whether the impoverished North will receive coronavirus vaccines to be provided by the United States and other countries.
(END)
2. Ruling party's presidential candidate eyes 'de facto' unification with N. Korea
I can't remember how many times I have been told that Koreans in the South know how to deal with Kim and the regime because they are all Korea. But this "unification plan" of candidate Lee's I think underscore a lick or at least a naive understanding of the nature, objectives,and strategy of the Kim family regime. I will not profess to know wht is in Kim Jong-un's mind but my assessment is the candidate's plan could be very dangerous for the ROK as it provides the perfect opportunity for the regime to further its subversion of the South.
People ask what is north Korean Strategy and how do we know?
- I think when we use “Kim knows” we lose the debate. People will say “Kim knows" he cannot win a war against the South. “Kim knows” he cannot absorb and rule South Korea. “Kim knows” China will not let him attack the South. “Kim knows” but we cannot know what he knows.
- We can only know what the Kim family regime has said and done over the past 70 years and that is what we must assess - not one of what we think "Kim knows."
- No one knows what Kim knows or believes. That said, we should start with Occam’s Razor. The simplest answer is the regime has been telling us & the Korean people it’s strategy for 7 decades. We spin that at our peril.
- Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the Kim regime?
- In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
- We should never forget that north Korea is a master of denial and deception in all that it does from military operations to strategy to diplomatic negotiations.
- nK engages in active subversion of the ROK as well as the ROK/US Alliance (See UFD and 225th Bureau mission statements).
- The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
- Those are my completely biased views of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
(2nd LD) Ruling party's presidential candidate eyes 'de facto' unification with N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with Lee's comments on unification in paras 1-7; CHANGES headline; ADDS photo)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Jan. 16 (Yonhap) -- Ruling party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said Sunday he would seek a "de facto state" of inter-Korean unification based on coexistence and mutual prosperity in a short-term and rather realistic goal if he gains power.
Lee of the liberal Democratic Party made the remark during a visit to the border county of Goseong, 466 kilometers northeast of Seoul, after a reporter pointed out he made no mention of unification in his campaign pledges for Gangwon Province, where Goseong is located.
"For lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, of course it is right to aim for unification as stipulated in the Constitution," he said at an observatory overlooking North Korea.
He added, however, "In the current state, the possibility of directly pursuing unification as a short-term task is realistically very weak."
Lee continued that the "correct" way to go about the issue is to set a short-term goal of reaching a "state that is practically no different from unification" by aiming for coexistence and mutual prosperity through increased inter-Korean communication and exchanges.
"Rather than setting unification as a direct short-term goal, getting to a realizable, de facto state of unification, a state that is the same as having achieved unification, is essentially the path to reaching the unification stipulated by the Constitution," he said.
Lee noted there are calls to rename the Ministry of Unification to the Inter-Korean Cooperation Ministry or the Peace Cooperation Ministry to reflect that short-term goal, and added he is looking into the proposal.
Earlier during the visit, Lee vowed to resume tourism to North Korea's Mount Kumgang as soon as possible if elected in March, referring to a program that was suspended in 2008 following the shooting death of a South Korean tourist there by a North Korean guard.
Lee also pledged to establish a special international tourism zone straddling the border and push for an ecotourism program inside the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.
"Starting with exchanges in nonpolitical areas, such as tourism and sports, I will pursue inter-Korean coexistence through practical North Korea policies that benefit both the South and the North," he said.
Lee presented a vision for turning Gangwon Province into a northern economic hub by reconnecting inter-Korean railroads and roads.
In a separate note posted on Facebook, he promised to take tough measures against Japan's planned release of radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Specifically, he said he will introduce a safety control system to completely block imports of fisheries contaminated by radioactive water and toughen inspections of local fisheries.
"Japan is forging ahead with its plan to release contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant despite widespread concern and opposition," Lee wrote.
He added, "Japan's plan, which omits the process of information disclosure and verification, will serve as a major obstacle to building future-oriented relations between South Korea and Japan, following historical and territorial issues."
(END)
3. North sends train to China after nearly two years of isolation
Will this be sufficient to help the north Korean economy to recover in any substantive manner?
Sunday
January 16, 2022
North sends train to China after nearly two years of isolation
The Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge, which spans the Yalu River between China and North Korea. [YONHAP]
A North Korean freight train crossed the Yalu River into China on Sunday, signaling a possible resumption of overland trade between the two countries after the North imposed a strict border lockdown almost two years ago.
The train, which originated in the North Korean border city of Sinuiju, crossed the river that marks the boundary between the two countries using the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge and arrived in the Chinese city Dandong at around 9 a.m., according to a local Chinese source who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo on the condition of anonymity.
The presence of Chinese public security officials was noticeably heightened in Dandong on Sunday, and public access to the bridge and the city’s railway station has been restricted, according to the source.
It was unclear if the freight train carried any cargo into China, but the source added that he heard unconfirmed rumors that the train is likely to return to North Korea on Monday with emergency materials.
The train’s crossing into China marks the first time in almost two years that the North has opened its borders to formal overland trade with China after it self-imposed a blockade of goods and people at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
While North Korea has not reported any Covid-19 cases, the border closures appear to have had a crippling effect on the North Korean economy.
The North is heavily reliant on Chinese raw materials, consumer goods, fuel, machine parts and foodstuffs to sustain domestic industries and the unofficial market.
South Korean government sources contacted by the JoongAng Ilbo said that they are waiting to see if the Sunday train crossing indicates a resumption of overland shipments from China to the North.
“Since early last year, North Korean authorities have constructed sanitization and anti-virus facilities on the runway of Uiju Airfield near Sinuiju to prepare for Sino-North Korean trade,” said one government source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
“Construction was completed in the latter half of last year, and we believe that the North intends to store inbound shipments at these facilities before allowing them to continue onward into the country.”
At a plenary meeting of the North’s ruling Korean Workers’ Party, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that the country needed to pursue projects that would enable “anti-virus policies for the people,” suggesting a change in the country’s draconian restrictions on trade.
Another government source said that the train’s border crossing suggested the North’s dire need to resume shipments of supplies and materials from China.
“In the past two years since North Korea self-imposed a border blockade, the regime has claimed that it would overcome [economic challenges] through self-reliance,” the source said.
“However, there are limits to self-reliance due to the North’s lack of domestic resources, and it appears the North Koreans are desperate for Chinese support and raw materials."
4. U.S. blasts North's railway-borne missile test
It would have been nice to "blast" the train. But I do not think the headline editor and I have the same view of the use of the word "blast."
Sunday
January 16, 2022
U.S. blasts North's railway-borne missile test
A photograph of Friday's tactical guided missile launch from a train in Uiju, North Pyongan Province, released by the North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency on Saturday. [KCNA]
The United States blasted North Korea over the weekend for its Friday tactical guided missile test, which the North's official state news agency revealed Saturday was conducted by its railway-based missile regiment.
In a Saturday phone conversation with South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the bilateral alliance “the linchpin of peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond,” according to a statement from the U.S. State Department.
The State Department added that Blinken “highlighted the importance of continued U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral cooperation and stressed that U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK remains ironclad,” referring to the acronym for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.
Blinken further condemned the Friday missile launches as violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which forbid the North from developing or testing ballistic missile technologies, according to the State Department.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Saturday that the North Korean military’s railway-based missile regiment conducted Friday’s drill from Uiju, North Pyongan Province, which borders China, to “check and judge the proficiency” of the unit’s capabilities.
According to the KCNA, the two tactical guided missiles hit their targets in the eastern waters off the Korean Peninsula. The targets are thought to have been set on Al Island, an uninhabited island off the North's east coast.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the missiles flew around 430 kilometers eastward at an altitude of 36 kilometers, with the first missile launch detected at 2:41 p.m. and the other at 2:52 p.m.
The missiles flew at a top speed of around Mach 6, or six times the speed of sound, according to the military.
A JCS official told reporters on the condition of anonymity that the South Korean military believes the North fired the missiles “to verify the missiles' accuracy,” and that the launches were “aimed at enhancing the accuracy of the existing short-range ballistic missiles.”
The test marks the North's second known missile test using a railway launch platform after one in September last year, and the country's third show of force this year.
Train-borne launchers enhance the North’s ability to fire missiles without prior detection by South Korean and U.S. intelligence as they can be concealed inside railway cars and do not require a long period of preparation in a stationary location.
Friday’s test was the third launch by the North this year, following two separate tests of what the North claims were hypersonic glide missiles on Jan. 5 and Tuesday, the latter of which North Korean state media later reported was directly supervised by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
The flurry of missile activity from the North, the pace of which has picked up since September last year, resulted in the U.S. Joe Biden administration imposing its first sanctions on Pyongyang and blacklisting seven individuals and one Russian entity thought to be involved in procuring goods for the North's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program from Russia and China.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States “will use every appropriate tool” to address the North's WMD and ballistic missile programs. However, he stressed that the Biden administration remains “committed to seeking dialogue and diplomacy” and called on Pyongyang to “engage in negotiations.”
The Biden administration has repeatedly called on North Korea to return to talks aimed at its denuclearization, saying it is ready to meet counterparts from Pyongyang “anywhere, anytime, without preconditions.”
The North has shown little appetite to engage in talks with the United States since the 2019 Hanoi summit between Kim and then-U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed without a deal.
5. Don’t look up? (Oped on nK missile tests)
Except:
People compare the weird developments to Netflix film “Don’t Look Up.” In the movie, a president, his supporters and the media realize the danger of an approaching comet after it appears in the sky despite astronomers’ persistent warnings about the possibility of its collision with the planet. After North Korea’s missile launch Tuesday, President Moon expressed concern, but was wary of its impact on the March 9 presidential election.
Sunday
January 16, 2022
Don’t look up?
North Korea has fired ballistic missiles three times this year. Following its earlier launches on Jan. 5 and 11 of hypersonic missiles with the speed of Mach 5 and March 10, respectively, it went so far as to release the image of two KN-23 short-range missiles lifting off from a train. As those hypersonic missiles can neutralize our interception system, it poses a serious threat to security.
After the successive launches of hypersonic missiles, the international community showed an immediate reaction. Following a joint statement on Monday by six countries, including the U.S. and Britain, Washington imposed its unilateral sanctions on Pyongyang while demanding additional sanctions on the United Nations level.
Nevertheless, the Moon Jae-in administration simply brushes off the missile threat even though the missiles can destroy South Korea if they are tipped with nuclear warheads. The government held a National Security Council meeting, but did not even use the term “provocation.” The Blue House said it will “analyze the reasons for the launch without a pre-determined conclusion.” On Tuesday, a senior Blue House official even stressed the importance of making an end-of-war declaration under such circumstances.
On Saturday, the government issued a press release containing a phone conversation between Foreign Minister Chung Ui-yong and his U.S. counterpart Anthony Blinken. The press release from the State Department stipulated that the North’s launch of ballistic missiles constitutes a brazen violation of the UN Security Council resolutions. But our government’s press release did not include any mention of provocation, threats or denunciation. Instead, it underscored the need to reactivate President Moon’s Korean Peninsula Peace Process.
People compare the weird developments to Netflix film “Don’t Look Up.” In the movie, a president, his supporters and the media realize the danger of an approaching comet after it appears in the sky despite astronomers’ persistent warnings about the possibility of its collision with the planet. After North Korea’s missile launch Tuesday, President Moon expressed concern, but was wary of its impact on the March 9 presidential election.
North Korea has reportedly resumed freight transport across the border with China. The reopening of the border reflects the economic hardships North Korea faces. The United Nations reportedly has offered Pyongyang 60 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine. But North Korea’s missile launch is itself a serious threat. The recalcitrant state once again attempts to draw attention from the rest of the world by resorting to its signature brinkmanship. Such provocations will only help deepen the pain of the people. We urge North Korea to return to the negotiating table.
6. North Korea's missile launches aimed at diversifying arsenal: experts
Diversifying to create dilemmas for ROK and US combined defense forces in order to support nK warfighting.
North Korea's missile launches aimed at diversifying arsenal: experts
This photo, provided by the North Korean government, Saturday, shows a missile test from a railway in North Pyongan Province, North Korea, Friday. AP-Yonhap
US expected to remain committed to diplomacy with Pyongyang
By Kang Seung-woo
The recent series of North Korean missile tests ― three times in two weeks ― indicate that its leader is doubling down on his country's nuclear arms buildup, rather than seeking more concessions before re-engaging in nuclear negotiations, according to diplomatic observers.
Despite the increasing frequency of missile tests, the U.S. government, already preoccupied with a difficult domestic situation as well as other diplomatic issues, is expected to maintain its commitment to diplomacy with Pyongyang, they added.
The Kim Jong-un regime fired hypersonic missiles on Jan. 5 and 11, followed by two short-range ballistic missiles launched from a train, Friday ― something unusual for the country, which had not conducted missile tests in January for the last 13 years.
"In order to know if a missile performs as intended, you must test them. North Korea has actually done less testing of new missiles than the U.S., China or Russia did in the past. So the main reason he is testing is it is essential for obtaining the capabilities he seeks," said Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
"Kim appears to be trying to diversify his missile arsenal with 'tactical missiles,' as he has told us. … I'm not sure he's trying to get our attention to force concessions as the price of restarting diplomacy."
During last year's party congress, Kim unveiled a plan to expand the country's nuclear arsenal, with ultra-modern tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic gliding-flight warheads.
Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, echoed Manning's view.
"The first two launches this month were likely developmental testing of a new hypersonic missile with maneuverable warhead. The missiles had been displayed last year in an arms exhibition, but not tested before. The most recent launches appear to be either KN-23 or KN-24, which were tested extensively in 2019-20 and may not have yet been deployed," Klingner said.
"Because North Korea has repeatedly refused any form of dialogue with the United States, the missile launches were not intended to push Washington back to the negotiating table. The launches do indicate that North Korea will continue to defy U.N. resolutions that preclude it from any ballistic missile testing," Klingner continued.
Speculation is growing that the U.S. Biden administration, which has made unrequited offers to meet North Koreans "anywhere, anytime," may adopt a confrontational stance in response to North Korea's repeated military actions, but the experts rejected the conjecture.
"The Biden administration will continue to seek dialogue with Pyongyang to reach a diplomatic solution to the long-standing nuclear problem. Washington will also continue efforts to maintain sufficient allied deterrence and defense against the growing missile threat," Klingner said.
"Early in his term, Biden had vowed to enforce sanctions and, if necessary, increase pressure. The low number of entities sanctioned this month and last year were a proper start but, like previous administrations, the Biden administration continues to refrain from fully enforcing U.S. laws," he added.
Manning also said, "Biden is overwhelmed with domestic problems, the Ukraine and the Iran nuclear issue. While Biden remains open to unconditional talks with North Korea, there does not appear much interest at the moment for what is seen as high-risk, low-reward dealings with North Korea."
7. Pyongyang missiles hint at long-term standoff with US
Is time on KJU's side?
Pyongyang missiles hint at long-term standoff with US
N. Korea views negotiation as a sideshow, while US is unwilling to expend more political capital
Published : Jan 16, 2022 - 13:40 Updated : Jan 16, 2022 - 16:59
North Korea test-fires a pair of short-range ballistic missiles from a rail-mobile launcher during firing drills on Jan. 14. (KCNA-Yonhap)
Pyongyang’s recent missile launches serve a dual purpose, and may hint at its long-term strategy in dealing with the US, experts say.
Pyongyang test-fired four ballistic missiles in three discrete launches, which were conducted over 10 days in short intervals.
Experts affiliated with US think tanks view the missile tests show Pyongyang’s long-term strategy to bolster military power to negotiate from a position of strength and gain the upper hand on the US.
For the Kim Jong-un regime, nuclear negotiation is currently a mere sideshow.
Friday’s test launch, which came after the Biden administration’s announcement on North Korea-specific sanctions, provides a clearer picture of Pyongyang’s long-term approach to Washington. Notably, the rail-mobile missile forces in charge of Friday’s test-firing play a counterstrike or retaliatory role.
The external message is clear: Additional sanctions and the international community’s opprobrium will not stop advanced weapons development.
Washington, meanwhile, does not see any advantages of devoting more political capital to North Korea-related issues and deviating from its current dual track approach of “diplomacy and stern deterrence.”
Friday’s launch fills dual purposes
Experts point out that the purpose of the missile tests is predominantly of a domestic nature at a critical juncture for the Kim Jong-un regime. The regime has pushed forward its five-year plan to develop defense capability and advance and variegate conventional and nonconventional weapons.
But Friday’s launch appears to simultaneously deliver a message to the North Korean people and the US in light of its timing and North Korean state media reports.
“I’m usually hesitant to ascribe much external motive for missile launches, which I believe generally take place primarily for internal reasons,” Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Korea Herald.
“But there may have been an aspect of convenience here: test readiness, but also demonstrate that US sanctions won’t deter missile tests.”
Pyongyang test-fired a pair of short-range ballistic missiles from a rail-mobile launcher one day after the Biden administration imposed its first North Korea-specific sanctions on individuals and an entity responsible for procuring missile materials from China and Russia.
The latest test launch Friday afternoon came hours after North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs swiftly repudiated Washington’s sanctions designations and warned that the country would be “compelled to take a stronger and clear reaction if the US adopts such a confrontational stance at all costs” in a press statement.
Panda also pointed to the implications of the flight distance and the specific role of the rail-mobile units.
The 430 kilometers flight distance of two KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles launched Friday is approximately equidistant from the launch site in Uiju County, North Pyongan Province, to the United States Forces Korea headquarters in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province.
“There’s a fairly clear message, I think, that this capability could be used in wartime to retaliate against USFK headquarters,” Panda said, adding that North Korea’s top military official Pak Jong-chon in September elucidated that the rail-mobile units were designed to play a retaliatory or counterstrike role.
N. Korea in for long-term confrontation
Rachel Minyoung Lee, a nonresident fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center, pointed out Friday’s missile test “appears to have been primarily driven by domestic factors.”
Lee said a series of missile tests this year should be viewed “within the context of its five-year defense development plan and Kim’s position that North Korea is in for a long-term confrontation with the US.”
After his misfiring in Hanoi, the North Korean leader in December 2019 proposed a “frontal breakthrough” campaign as a recalibrated approach.
The campaign is a grand strategy to simultaneously build a self-reliant economy to emasculate sanctions and develop national defense capabilities, accepting the long-term confrontation with the US as a fait accompli.
“The message to the internal audience is that the defense development plan is being implemented as planned. To external audiences, including the US, North Korea is saying it is moving according to its own timetable, regardless of the international community’s condemnation of missile tests or even moves to impose more sanctions,” Lee said.
Nuclear negotiation sideshow
Some experts say that North Korea is falling back on its old playbook to ramp up pressure and obtain more concessions from the US.
But fundamentally and more importantly, Friday’s missile launch offered a clear cut picture of North Korea’s long-term strategy for nuclear negotiations with the US.
Joshua Pollack, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, pointed out Kim Jong-un seems determined to push forward his five-year plan for the development of national defense rather than seeking dialogue.
“Maybe once it’s complete, and perhaps when there’s a new US administration, Kim will look for opportunities to negotiate again,” Pollack told The Korea Herald. “It’s pretty clear that Kim doesn’t see Biden as a promising negotiating partner.”
For now, nuclear negotiation is a mere sideshow. North Korea’s weapons tests should be understood in light of the country’s long-term strategy to negotiate from a position of strength and gain the upper hand on the US.
“I imagine that Kim’s hope and expectation are that the demonstration of a high enough level of sophistication will convince Washington, DC to treat him with more respect and to deal with him on terms more to his liking,” Pollack said.
US unwilling to expend more political capital
A spate of ballistic missile tests reflects Pyongyang’s calculus that the test launches would not lead to new UNSC resolutions and adverse economic consequences. Considering international dynamics, it is highly improbable that China and Russia will lend support for the US-led initiative to ratchet up pressure on North Korea.
The Kim regime also has learned the lesson of taking advantage of US apathy toward North Korea during the Obama administration.
“Kim probably sensed that there was enough wriggle room to test the limits of Washington’s patience,” Soo Kim, a policy analyst at Rand Corp., said. “In short, he probably knew that the consequences would be trivial, and the benefits of these missile-firing episodes far outweighed the costs.”
But there appears to be a vicious, neverending circle going on here. North Korea’s continued weapons test and rebuff to the US’ overture for unconditional dialogue has made the Biden administration relegate the North Korean nuclear issues to a lower priority.
Washington also wrestles with a number of more pressing foreign policy challenges, including a revival of the Iran nuclear deal and the Russian troop buildup near Ukraine’s borders.
“The White House seems to see little advantage in dealing with the North Koreans, or at least not enough to make any gestures to them. Attempts to communicate with them so far seem more like efforts to win more cooperation from China,” Pollack said. “I don’t think the (Biden) administration would ignore an invitation. But they aren’t going to expend any political capital to try to get one.”
Also, most experts view that the midterm elections -- which are generally overshadowed by pressing domestic challenges -- would not have an impact on the Biden administration’s North Korea policy.
“If the mid-terms do matter, they’ll probably matter in the sense of convincing the administration that this is not the time to make any major changes,” Panda said. “American voters are unlikely to punish the president’s party for North Korean missile launches. Other foreign policy issues may matter more.”
Biden poised for hard line
Washington’s shift in strategic focus on countering Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region also would make it more onerous to take a conciliatory and softened approach to Pyongyang.
The Biden administration is assessed as subordinating its North Korea policy to its Indo-Pacific strategy framework. Analysts say Washington has used its North Korea policy as a means to manage alliance relations with the goal of rallying allies to strengthen extended deterrence against China.
“I would think that a policy shift in the direction of concessions would, over time, complicate our ability to deal with North Korea and potentially create additional policy challenges vis-a-vis the region writ large -- think China, Taiwan, and broader alliance challenges,” said Soo Kim.
Against that backdrop, North Korea’s weapons tests could make the Biden administration put more weight on “stern deterrence” rather than diplomacy, which Biden pointed to as in line with his North Korea policy.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday also said the US was “very focused” on ensuring that Pyongyang faces “repercussions and consequences” for missile tests in coordination with allies and partners.
“(The) Biden administration seems poised to take a harder line stance if North Korea continues to conduct missile test-launches,” 38 North’s Lee said. “Its latest imposition of sanctions on North Korean personnel is a testament to that.”
8. Ruling party's presidential candidate vows to resume tourism to Mount Kumgang
The ruling party really wants to put Korean tourists back to the location where a woman from South Korea was shot in the back by north Korean soldiers.
(LEAD) Ruling party's presidential candidate vows to resume tourism to Mount Kumgang | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with candidate's pledge against Fukushima water release in last 4 paras)
SEOUL, Jan. 16 (Yonhap) -- Ruling party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said Sunday he will resume tourism to North Korea's Mount Kumgang as soon as possible if elected in March.
Lee announced the pledge during a visit to the border county of Goseong, 466 kilometers northeast of Seoul, referring to a program that was suspended in 2008 following the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at the mountain by a North Korean guard.
"I will reopen the doors of tourism to Mount Kumgang as soon as possible," Lee of the liberal Democratic Party said at an observatory overlooking the mountain range.
Lee also pledged to establish a special international tourism zone straddling the border and push for an ecotourism program inside the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.
"Starting with exchanges in nonpolitical areas, such as tourism and sports, I will pursue inter-Korean coexistence through practical North Korea policies that benefit both the South and the North," he said.
He presented a vision for turning Gangwon Province, where Goseong is located, into a northern economic hub by reconnecting inter-Korean railroads and roads.
In a separate note posted on Facebook, Lee promised to take tough measures against Japan's planned release of radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant.
He said he will introduce a safety control system to completely block imports of fisheries contaminated by radioactive water and toughen inspections of local fisheries.
"Japan is forging ahead with its plan to release contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant despite widespread concern and opposition," Lee wrote.
He added, "Japan's plan, which omits the process of information disclosure and verification, will serve as a major obstacle to building future-oriented relations between South Korea and Japan, following historical and territorial issues."
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
9. North Korea is testing hypersonic weapons. Should the West be worried?
I am not worried about a specific weapon system. However, I am worried about the regime's intent to develop multiple weapons systems to create dilemmas for the ROK/US alliance to serve two purposes: (1) to support warfighting and; (2) to support its political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies.
North Korea is testing hypersonic weapons. Should the West be worried?
NPR · by Scott Neuman · January 15, 2022
This photo provided by the North Korean government shows what it says a test launch of a hypersonic missile on Jan. 11. Korean Central News Agency/AP
The U.S., Russia and China all have them. And now, North Korea claims to as well: hypersonic weapons.
These aerial vehicles go a step further than the kind of ballistic missiles that Pyongyang has periodically tested over the years. They can fly fast and maneuver in ways that make them extremely difficult to detect and destroy.
It's a developmental leap that North Korea appears to have quickly bridged. If fully realized, the new capability could present a significant challenge to U.S.- and South Korean-based missile defense systems.
This week Pyongyang conducted several ballistic missile tests, including more of a hypersonic missile, thought to be either a further development of the Hwasong-8 it first launched in September, or possibly an entirely new weapon.
The Biden administration responded on Wednesday with its first sanctions on the Northeast Asian nation — against several North Korean nationals, a Russian and a Russian firm that Washington says helped Pyongyang "illegally procure goods for weapons." Four of the sanctioned North Koreans are living in China.
What are hypersonic weapons and who has them?
There are basically three types of hypersonic weapons — guided ballistic missiles, with warheads that can be steered to a target; hypersonic glide vehicles, launched by a rocket before gliding to a target; and hypersonic cruise missiles, that are powered by high-speed, air-breathing engines.
These weapons can have a variety of ranges and can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads, depending on their design.
Despite the name, it is the ability of hypersonic weapons to make quick course changes on their "terminal phase" near a target that is more important in evading countermeasures than is speed. By definition, hypersonic weapons fly at five times or more the speed of sound, or Mach 5. But an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists notes that the V-2, the first modern ballistic missile developed by Nazi Germany during World War II, was capable of a speed just under Mach 5. "More modern intermediate and long-range ballistic missiles travel much faster—Mach 15 and higher," according to the Bulletin.
North Korea's first test in September is believed to have been of a guided ballistic missile. Also known as a maneuverable reentry vehicle, it is the least sophisticated of the three types and they've been found in the arsenals of the major military powers for decades. However, the latest North Korean test is thought to have been of a more advanced boost-glide vehicle.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, acknowledges that if the map of the flight path put out by North Korea is accurate, this week's test represents "a somewhat more sophisticated capability than I was expecting North Korea to have tested."
Acton tells NPR that he doesn't think Pyongyang's capabilities match those of the U.S., Russia or China, but "if their propaganda reflects what actually happened in the test ... there is a notable degree of capability."
An Avangard ballistic missile lifts off from a truck-mounted launcher somewhere in Russia, in an undated photo from footage distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service. Russian Defense Ministry Press Service/AP
Russia has already fielded the Avangard, a hypersonic glide vehicle. The Kremlin claims it can fly at Mach 27, or 27 times the speed of sound and it is thought to be capable of turning sharply in flight to evade interception. Last month, Russia says it carried out multiple successful tests from surface ships and submarines of an even more sophisticated hypersonic cruise missile, known as Zircon.
Meanwhile, in China, the DF-17, a ballistic missile designed to boost a hypersonic glide vehicle, was shown off at a military parade in 2019. And last summer, Beijing tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle that flew into low-Earth orbit, according to U.S. intelligence sources cited by The Arms Control Association.
To understand China's orbital weapon, "imagine the space shuttle, put a nuclear weapon in the cargo bay and then don't bother with the landing gear," Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told NPR in October.
While Russia has generally boasted about the new capabilities, China has mostly stuck to denials.
Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles roll during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019. Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Commenting last month on a report about China's test in July, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters that such tests "will only increase tensions in the region."
"China is a challenge, and we're going to remain focused on that," Austin said.
Why are hypersonic weapons so dangerous?
From a technical standpoint, the speed, but mostly the maneuverability, of such weapons gives them the potential to evade defensive systems. Not only are they difficult to detect, but their ability to make radical course changes as they get close to a target is meant to evade interception.
"If you can't deter it and you can't defend against it, then the only other option is preemption," says Victor Cha, a senior vice president and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
It's notable that after the recent tests, South Korean presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol this week suggested just such an option. "Missiles that travel at speeds over Mach 5, if they are loaded with nuclear warheads, will reach the Seoul metropolitan area in less than a minute. Interception is practically impossible," Yoon said.
"In that case, the only method to prevent them is conducting a preemptive strike when we detect signs [of a launch]," he said, although he also emphasized the need "to keep pressuring North Korea through diplomacy."
Cha, who served on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, says U.S. missile defense systems, are "good," but they are mostly "geared towards stopping a handful of fairly primitive missiles from North Korea."
"[T]hey would need to be improved to be able to handle more sophisticated sorts of missiles," he tells NPR.
Inevitably, Pyongyang's development of hypersonic weapons "will raise discussions about whether ... the South Koreans or the U.S. and South Korea should have more offensive strike capabilities," Cha says.
How significant is the short-term threat?
Despite the apparent alarm at North Korean advances, there are experts who say that the threat may be overwrought.
Acton says that he's not convinced that hypersonic weapons are substantially harder to intercept than conventional ballistic missiles.
"Intercepting ballistic missiles is by no means straightforward," he acknowledges. With some modifications, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, a U.S. missile defense system that's been deployed to South Korea, might be able to work against hypersonics, too, he says.
"[I]t's not clear to me that is going to be that much less effective against maneuvering hypersonic systems than against ballistic missiles," he says.
Others have noted that technologies such as the orbital weapon China tested last year are not new at all. Russia tested one six decades ago, during the Cold War.
Adam Mount, director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists, suggests that hypersonic weapons would be something akin to just another quiver in North Korea's arsenal, albeit potentially a pretty effective one.
"North Korea has a range of options for defeating U.S. missile defenses," he tells NPR. "They could saturate those missile defenses with large salvos of weapons, and they have other options for trying to evade missile defenses." Hypersonic weapons, he Mount says, have "the ability to do this with smaller salvos of weapons, and so they don't have to fire as many missiles to have a high confidence in being able to hit protected targets."
John Tierney, a former Massachusetts representative who now serves as the executive director for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, calls hypersonics "shrug worthy," adopting a term coined by writer Fred Kaplan in a column in Slate last year following up Gen. Milley's "Sputnik moment" remark.
"It's shrug worthy by objective standards," Tierney tells NPR. "But of course, it's very useful to people in the defense industry and the military to hype it up, because that's how you get more money in the budget."
Tierney cautions that Pyongyang's claims may be exaggerated and suspects that the real value for North Korea to hype hypersonic weapons is propaganda, not military efficacy.
However, others are more circumspect. Cha points out that North Korea's capabilities have been repeatedly underestimated in the past — much to the West's chagrin. First cold water was poured on Pyongyang's nuclear program. Then ballistic missiles. And even cyber warfare.
"They will test something. It won't work and the experts will say, 'Oh, you know, they're trying to achieve some capability, but they're still a long way off,'" he says. "Then they do it."
"North Korea is very clear about its intentions," he cautions. "It wants to develop hypersonic capabilities and it will develop hypersonic capabilities."
NPR · by Scott Neuman · January 15, 2022
10. DPRK warns against new sanctions
Chinese propaganda support to the Kim family regime.
DPRK warns against new sanctions
The DPRK's top leader Kim Jong-un (right) speaks with military officials during an observation of a hypersonic missile test-fire on Tuesday. KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY
SEOUL－The Democratic People's Republic of Korea on Friday berated the United States for imposing fresh sanctions against it over its latest missile tests and warned of stronger and more explicit action if Washington maintains its "confrontational stance".
Later on Friday, the Republic of Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the DPRK fired two short-range projectiles eastward.
Japan's Prime Minister's Office and the Defense Ministry also said they detected the launches and said it was possibly ballistic missiles.
This marked the DPRK's third projectile launch this year.
The DPRK said earlier this week that it successfully conducted a "hypersonic gliding warhead" test on Tuesday under the supervision of top leader Kim Jong-un.
In a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency, an unidentified Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Pyongyang's recent launches of hypersonic missiles were righteous exercises of self-defense.
The spokesperson said the new sanctions underscore hostile US intent aimed at "isolating and stifling" Pyongyang despite Washington's repeated calls for Pyongyang to resume diplomacy that has stalled over disagreements about sanctions relief and nuclear disarmament steps.
The administration of US President Joe Biden on Wednesday imposed sanctions on five DPRK officials over their roles in obtaining equipment and technology for the country's missile programs.
The announcement by the US Treasury Department came just hours after Pyongyang said Kim oversaw the successful test of a hypersonic missile on Tuesday.
The DPRK spokesperson also accused the US of maintaining a "gangster-like" stance, saying that Pyongyang's development of the new missile is part of its efforts to modernize its military and does not target any specific country or threaten the security of its neighbors.
'Strong reaction'
"Nevertheless, the US is intentionally escalating the situation even with the activation of independent sanctions, not content with referring the DPRK's just activity to the United Nations Security Council," the spokesperson said.
"This shows that though the present US administration is trumpeting about diplomacy and dialogue, it is still engrossed in its policy for isolating and stifling the DPRK. ... If the US adopts such a confrontational stance, the DPRK will be forced to take stronger and certain reaction to it," the spokesperson said.
Hypersonic weapons, which fly at speeds in excess of Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, could pose a crucial challenge to missile defense systems because of their speed and maneuverability, The Associated Press said.
In an interview with MSNBC, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the DPRK's latest tests "profoundly destabilizing" and said the US was deeply engaged with the UN and key partners, including allies the ROK and Japan, on a response.
Pyongyang has so far rejected the idea of so-called open-ended talks, saying the US must first withdraw its "hostile policy", a term Pyongyang mainly uses to describe the sanctions and joint US-ROK military drills.
Agencies - Xinhua
11. Reading Kim Jong Un the right way
I do not know what Mr. DePetris has been reading but I think most of us understand the "third option" he describes. Kimi doing what he said he would do. The problem is that Mr. DePetris' analysis does not go far enough to describe the intent for developing these diverse weapons capabilities (e.g., warfighting, political warfare and blackmail diplomacy to achieve regime objectives to dominate the peninsula). Instead he appears to describe this as nothing unusual and that we should not be worried about it. He does not offer any substantive recommendation but he seems to imply that because the north's actions are simply the bureaucracy implementing the leader's guidance that we should negotiate not denuclearization but something less. And I surmise he is in support of giving the regime concessions for negotiation because ultimately he blames the US for the problems on the Korean peninsula and not Kim Jong-un and the existence of the Kim family regime.
Excerpts:
Yet there’s another option that isn’t being considered, namely that Kim Jong Un is doing precisely what he promised to do a year earlier when he laid out a proclamation to his military officers, scientists, and weapons engineers. To simplify it: Diversify the North’s weapons systems and build more of them. Kim even outlined the systems his engineers should prioritize, including multiple-warhead missiles, new models of ballistic missiles, " hypersonic gliding flight warheads ," cyber weapons, and drones. Despite a coronavirus pandemic that entailed a shutdown of its border with China, the Kim dynasty still used the preceding year to implement Kim’s order, testing short-range ballistic missiles in March, a long-range cruise missile in September, and a submarine-launched ballistic missile in October.
Viewed through this prism, the launches look like a relatively ordinary occurrence, that of a bureaucracy implementing explicit policy guidance given from the top. It’s less about desperately pleading for Washington’s attention and more about carrying out what the leader expects.
Why does any of this matter?
The U.S. can’t craft a North Korea policy that works, a policy that relies more on deterrence and pragmatic communication instead of some denuclearization fantasy, if it can’t even read North Korea properly.
Reading Kim Jong Un the right way
The world’s eyes remain fixed on the Russia-Ukraine border, where approximately 100,000 Russian forces remain stationed amid escalating threats by Russian officials.
More than 4,200 miles to the east, however, there’s another international story that refuses to go away: North Korea's missile program.
Pyongyang has been busy refining and testing its growing array of ballistic, cruise, and possibly hypersonic missiles. Whereas North Korea held fire for about six months in 2021, it has launched three missile tests in the first two weeks of 2022. The latest occurred Jan. 14, involving two short-range ballistic missiles.
The United States has responded to all of this activity with the usual outrage. Indeed, the troubles with North Korea resemble one long bad movie on repeat, where the plot is entirely predictable and the characters are the same. The trend goes something like this: North Korea tests a missile of a certain type, prompting an immediate verbal reaction from South Korea and Japan. Seoul schedules an emergency meeting to discuss the launch and releases a statement expressing its "strong regret" at the North’s actions. U.S. weapons analysts get to work assessing the exact capacity and capability of the missile that was just fired. The U.S. State Department issues a condemnation, reminding everybody about how the launch was a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. The U.S. Secretary of State gets on the phone with his South Korean and Japanese colleagues, reassuring them (for the umpteenth time) that their country’s alliances with the U.S. are ironclad.
A few days, weeks, or months later, the entire cycle starts up again.
The general assessments of each launch are typically preprogrammed as well. The main conclusions tend to follow two paths: 1. Kim Jong Un is a child who wants attention from the world’s superpower, or 2. Kim Jong Un is trying to accumulate more leverage in the event that negotiations with the U.S. recommence.
The first suggestion is a narcissistic interpretation of global affairs in which the U.S. is at the center of the universe. The second only makes sense if North Korea is interested in beginning negotiations. Judging by Kim’s recent comments, the North Korean leader is far more interested in bolstering food production than diving back into talks with Washington. Secretary of State Antony Blinken appears to subscribe to the first explanation. "I think some of this is ... North Korea trying to get attention," he told MSNBC on Thursday.
Yet there’s another option that isn’t being considered, namely that Kim Jong Un is doing precisely what he promised to do a year earlier when he laid out a proclamation to his military officers, scientists, and weapons engineers. To simplify it: Diversify the North’s weapons systems and build more of them. Kim even outlined the systems his engineers should prioritize, including multiple-warhead missiles, new models of ballistic missiles, " hypersonic gliding flight warheads ," cyber weapons, and drones. Despite a coronavirus pandemic that entailed a shutdown of its border with China, the Kim dynasty still used the preceding year to implement Kim’s order, testing short-range ballistic missiles in March, a long-range cruise missile in September, and a submarine-launched ballistic missile in October.
Viewed through this prism, the launches look like a relatively ordinary occurrence, that of a bureaucracy implementing explicit policy guidance given from the top. It’s less about desperately pleading for Washington’s attention and more about carrying out what the leader expects.
Why does any of this matter?
The U.S. can’t craft a North Korea policy that works, a policy that relies more on deterrence and pragmatic communication instead of some denuclearization fantasy, if it can’t even read North Korea properly.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
12. ‘Second thoughts’: what makes North Korean defectors want to go back?
It is complicated.
Escapees need to be properly cared for and considered as a national resource to ultimately support the unification process.
‘Second thoughts’: what makes North Korean defectors want to go back?
South Korea is no promised land for escapees from a brutal regime – loneliness and poverty are common fates
No one knows what awaited Kim Woo-joo when he arrived back in North Korea, just over a year after he had fled the world’s most oppressive regime for a life of freedom in the South.
Earlier this month, the 29-year-old former gymnast approached the border separating the two Koreas, scaled a tall barbed-wire fence and walked the 2.5 miles across the heavily armed demilitarised zone (DMZ), dodging landmines but not security cameras, which captured his escape no fewer than five times.
His decision to cross the DMZ back to the North from the South was the latest chapter in an extraordinary series of journeys. In November 2020, Kim had made the same journey in the opposite direction, fleeing his homeland but shunning the route preferred by almost all defectors across the North’s border with China.
Having denied that he was a spy, embarrassed officials in Seoul were forced to acknowledge that Kim had grown so disillusioned with life in South Korea that he was willing to face harassment and possible incarceration in the North by returning there.
His daring flight prompted uncomfortable questions about the treatment of political and economic refugees from the North, for whom life in the democratic, capitalist South sometimes falls far short of expectations.
At about 20%, the unemployment rate among defectors is six times higher than the average for South Koreans, according to the Database Centre for North Korean Human Rights. Although their average monthly income reached a record high in 2019, it still lags far behind that of South Koreans, the unification ministry said.
Last year, 1,582 defectors received financial help in addition to a welfare package they receive when they resettle in the South, while 47% said they were experiencing mental anguish, the ministry said.
They may well have included Kim, a night-time office cleaner who did not appear to have any friends and never spoke to his neighbours, one of whom told reporters that he had dutifully left a mattress and other possessions out for collection before he fled.
“If you worked in industry or for the government in North Korea, you can’t come to South Korea and expect to do an equivalent job,” says Sokeel Park, South Korea country director of Liberty in North Korea, which helps defectors. “You have to take a hit to your relative status, and that can have an effect on mental health, particularly for North Korean men.”
New arrivals spend three months being debriefed to ensure they are not spies, followed by a similar period at Hanawon (house of unity), a settlement support centre where they are given counselling and coached in the practicalities of South Korean life.
They are eligible for government subsidies of 20m won (£12,260) to find a home or a place at university, followed by monthly payments of 320,000 won for five years.
What is lacking, says Park, is the sense of community that the North – for all its disadvantages – had given them, particularly among people from rural areas who struggle to cope with the anonymity of life in a megalopolis like Seoul.
While defectors struggle financially and experience discrimination in education, housing and employment, it doesn’t necessarily follow that their thoughts will turn to redefection, says Park. “It is always a shock when a defector goes back to North Korea, even to other defectors,” he says.
Double defections inevitably attract headlines, but they are relatively rare. Of the 33,800 North Koreans who have defected to the South, just 30 have returned to the North.
“When you think of how many people are involved, human nature means it is inevitable that some people will have second thoughts,” Park says. “It would be very strange if none of those 30,000 defectors had gone back.”
Joo Il-yong was 13 when he left North Korea with his mother and sister, less than a year after his father had arrived in Seoul, where he saved money to enable the rest of his family to escape.
Joo, who graduated from Korea University in Seoul and will begin graduate studies there this spring, is a defector success story, but says he understands why a small number of other North Koreans end up back in the country they were once so desperate to leave.
“One of the biggest obstacles is the systemic difference between the two countries,” says Joo, who arrived in the South in 2009 after his father decided he wanted his children to live in a country where they would have “opportunities and a future”.
The perceived benefits of life in a rich, free society can quickly become a burden, Joo adds. “In North Korea we didn’t have to plan our lives – the state did that for us. But in the South, we have to take responsibility for our own lives. I know from my own experience that resettling in South Korea is a challenge, but it is nowhere near as difficult as living in North Korea.”
Some North Koreans return after sustained emotional blackmail from left-behind relatives, under pressure from North Korea’s secret police. “In some cases, it is simply because they miss their families back in North Korea so much,” Joo says.
“But I don’t see the challenges of life here as harsh or unfair. In fact, they have made me happier, because they motivate me to work and study even harder.”
13. Americans are just learning what people in East Asia already know about masks.
Yep. My wife (Korean-American) made me wear a mask while traveling in Feb 2020 just before COVID really spun us up and I was the only one in the plane wearing one (We may not have a consitutional national mandate but my wife's mandate is a higher level of authority!) . On my return flight through San Francisco it was only me and people arriving from East Asai who were wearing masks. It was second nature to see people in Asia wearing masks decades before COVID.
Americans are just learning what people in East Asia already know about masks.
Commuters wearing face masks as protection against the spread of Covid-19 during morning rush hour in Beijing.Credit...Andy Wong/Associated Press
By
- Jan. 15, 2022Updated 12:32 p.m. ET
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conceded in an announcement on Friday that cloth masks do not protect against the coronavirus as effectively as surgical masks or respirators.
In East Asia, a pronouncement like that would not be necessary because it is already common knowledge.
The region’s mask-wearing customs vary because each country has responded over the years to different sets of epidemiological and environmental threats. But this much is clear: Surgical masks have generally been the public face covering of choice for protection against all manner of epidemics, allergies and pollution.
They have also been the go-to mask for those who cover their faces in public, as a courtesy, to prevent others from catching their sniffles.
In Hong Kong, surgical masks were common during SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 and have been worn widely in public throughout the current pandemic. Official government guidance in the Chinese territory recommends surgical masks and does not even mention cloth ones.
In mainland China, a Spring 2020 survey of mask wearers who were not health care workers found that nearly 94 percent of them wore the disposable variety. Only 8.5 percent of them reported wearing cloth masks, according to the study, which was conducted by researchers at universities in China and the United States.
In South Korea, the mask of choice is an KF-94, the local equivalent of the N95 respirator.
In early 2020, the government encouraged citizens to wear cloth masks instead amid a respirator shortage, said Jaehwan Hyun, a history professor at Pusan National University in South Korea who has studied the history of masking in the country. But after a public outcry, the Korean Medical Association said that only respirators were effective.
“It is impossible to see cloth-mask-wearing people here,” Professor Hyun said. The rare exception, he added, would be people demonstrating their opposition to disposable masks on environmental grounds.
In Japan, there is no official requirement for people to wear surgical masks, said Tomohisa Sumida, a visiting research fellow at Keio University.
“Still, most people learn that surgical masks are better, and keep wearing masks even outdoors,” he said, adding that the government recommends “nonwoven” masks.
In the spring of 2020, former President Shinzo Abe’s administration distributed washable cloth face coverings, known a “Abenomasks,” to millions of residents. But the masks were deeply unpopular, in part because people preferred surgical ones.
As of late October, more than 81 million of the masks were still in storage. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in December that he had instructed officials to attempt to distribute them to people in need — and, if not, to dispose of them by March.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
