The National Retail Federation (NRF) is out with its holiday 2021 forecast and it’s a doozy. November and December retail sales are predicted to grow between 8.5% to 10.5% over 2020, excluding automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

This comes on the heels of last year’s spectacular increase of 8.2% after consumers threw off the restraints of the pandemic shutdown and tried to return to some semblance of holiday normalcy.

“There is considerable momentum heading into the holiday shopping season,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said.

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “The outlook for the holiday season looks very bright. The unusual and beneficial position we find ourselves in is that households have increased spending vigorously throughout most of 2021 and remain with plenty of holiday purchasing power.”

However, in parsing the NRF statement, they gave themselves some wiggle room in the 2021 prediction. It said holiday spending had the “potential” to break previous records.

And in response to the much-publicized supply-chain issues that are making product shortages a certainty, Kleinhenz qualified his predictions by stating, “If retailers can keep merchandise on the shelves and merchandise arrives before Christmas.”

Overall, there is widespread consensus among other retail forecasters, like Deloitte, Mastercard, NPD, and AlixPartner, that the tailwinds of strong consumer demand will push retail to unprecedented heights this year.

While none discount the economic headwinds pushing back – supply shortages, low unemployment and inflation – forecasters remain optimistic that the high levels of demand will overcome them, at least for now.

“I expect to see a strong holiday season,” says Aleksandar Tomic, Ph.D., associate dean for strategy, innovation and technology and program director for master of science in applied economics at Boston College.

“But these ultra short-term forecasts are not that big of a deal. Longer-term forecasts get more interesting because, at some point, it’s not about the numbers. It’s what’s happening outside of the numbers that matters,” he adds.

Things get murky when looking beyond the next two months. The demand tailwinds propelling this holiday’s growth may well push retail to new heights, but the headwinds are growing stronger and stronger by the day and will only get worse. Retailers had better make the most of this year because the bill will come due next year and beyond.

The global luxury market has been through a whirlwind of change since the COVID pandemic hit. This has created a pressing need for luxury industry executives to have the most up-to-date and accurate information to make business decisions. Providing that information has been the goal of our State of Luxury survey of luxury industry insiders, a study now in its sixth year.

Last year’s State of Luxury 2021 survey was spot on in predicting the impact of the Covid pandemic on the luxury market.

Our 2021 survey found the vast majority of luxury insiders surveyed said the pandemic caused a major downturn in the luxury market. But over one-fourth (28 percent) saw a silver lining in the disruption. They believed the pandemic would bring needed change to the luxury industry.

You said:

As in previous years, we are asking a cross-section of companies that compete in the luxury market, partner with luxury companies, or individuals who study the luxury market to share their opinions and experiences. The survey will take between 10-to-15 minutes to complete and all respondents remain anonymous. The survey is a collaborative project of Luxury Daily, Unity Marketing, and the Home Trust International.

Every respondent will receive an executive summary of the survey results and attendance in an exclusive respondents-only webinar where Pam Danziger (Unity Marketing), Mickey Alam Kahn (Luxury Daily) and Chris Ramey (The Home Trust) discuss the implications of the survey findings and key trends in the luxury market.

Plus your company will be entered into a drawing to win a customized digital advertising campaign targeting 100,000 High-Net-Worth individuals (HNW) -- a $1,000 value -- provided by Precise Luxury Marketing.

“In the beginning…” people lived in harmony with nature. Nature formed us and gave us all that we as human beings needed to live and prosper. Gradually we learned how to gain power over nature and with that knowledge, cultures advanced and mankind prospered.

But as culture became more technology advanced, we took nature for granted. We abused it and polluted it, taking too much out and not giving enough back. We’ve gotten further and further from our roots and the life-sustaining power nature provides.

The 60s anthem “Woodstock” describes it as “being caught in the devil’s bargain,” and proposes the way out: “We’ve got to get ourselves back to the garden.”

For the last 50 years, people across the globe have awakened to the Faustian bargain we’ve struck living in discord rather than harmony with nature.

In response, people are changing their lifestyles and behavior to get more time in nature as an antidote to people’s stress-filled lives.

The Global Wellness Summit describes us as suffering from a Nature Deficit Disorder. “This 24/7, digitally-dominated, Instagram-able world is depriving humankind of some very basic, very important nourishment that comes from being outdoors.”

Designers have an excellent opportunity, even a responsibility, to help their clients’ mental and health by creating an outdoor oasis for them to refresh and renew their spirit.

Consumers know they need it. In a recent Wakefield survey conducted among 1,300 homeowners on the home improvement projects they plan to undertake in the coming year, outdoor improvements take first place.

For designers, there is no question: design is moving outdoors.

Everyone has heard the adage, “The bigger the challenges, the greater the opportunity,” but often the reverse is true too: The bigger the opportunity, the greater the challenges. Both apply for home brands that aim to grow in the U.S. consumer market.“

Here are the five biggest challenges that every home furnishings brand faces entering or expanding in the U.S. market, whether selling through brick-and-mortar retail, B2C e-commerce or through the design trade.

While most businesses are entranced by the growth opportunities in China – 1.4 billion people with GDP growth averaging ~9% per year since 1980 – the U.S. market is far larger in market size yet with only one-fourth the total number of consumers – 328 million people living in 138 million U.S. households. The U.S. economy leads the world, $21.4 trillion as compared with $14.3 trillion in China, according to The World Bank.

In reality, China may be the world’s biggest producer, but the U.S. is the biggest consumer market.

Further, the U.S. is where more of the world’s wealth resides. There are 20.6 million U.S. millionaires, more than the five next largest countries combined, including China’s 2.3 million millionaires.

As for the home furnishings market, Americans spent $380.7 billion in 2020 on goods for their home, including $238.8 billion on furniture and furnishings alone. Add to that the $90.4 billion spent on home services, and the total market opportunity in the U.S. is rapidly approaching a half-trillion dollars.