With Russia-Ukraine tensions now resulting in escalating violence, Olexiy Haran warns against underestimating Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he says is “testing the West” but might yet respond to strong economic carrots and sticks. For Sam Greene, domestic considerations are driving Putin, meaning tensions are here to stay. Irina Busygina argues Putin is driven not by domestic politics but intent to dominate post-Soviet neighbors. Peter Rutland thinks the 2019 U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty may be playing a role. By flashing nuclear weaponry, Russia is trying to “abundantly disincentivize” NATO from even considering a military intervention, comments Samuel Charap. Longtime presidential aide Dmitry Kozak may be a key influence on Putin, says Brian Taylor.

What will be the fallout in Russia and Ukraine? Ironically, Putin’s belligerence has already pushed the Ukrainian people farther away from Russia, argue Rutland, Maria Popova, and Oxana Shevel. Volodymyr Ishchenko thinks even a successful occupation of Ukrainian territory could destabilize Russia’s own political order. Scott Radnitz finds better technology and increased skepticism make it harder for Russia to succeed with a false flag operation. If Ukraine is forced to hasten the implementation of the Minsk accords, its sovereignty and democracy would be at risk, Popova and Shevel contend.

If the West imposes large-scale sanctions on Russia, economic ramifications will extend well beyond Russia and Ukraine. Americans will see higher wheat and gas prices, Ted Gerber predicts, and Yoshiko Herrera adds that higher energy costs will impact economic growth and covid recovery efforts. Remittances sent home to Central Asian countries from migrant workers in Russia will also likely shrink, Caress Schenk points out.

Tensions remain high to the south of Russia as well. In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Jason Strakes argues Armenia’s acquisition of the Swathi Radar system from India signals possible mutual counterbalancing against an emerging Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan axis and movement away from dependency on Russia. Georgi Derluguian argues Armenia needs to strengthen ties with its diaspora. Sebastian Peyrouse believes a new president in Turkmenistan could mean new opportunities for U.S. companies. Reflecting on the last four decades, Mikhail Troitskiy finds narratives have historically played important roles in US-Russia arms control.
  
Event
 
Friday, February 25, 11:00 am-12:00 pm (EST), Energy as Russia’s Tool: The Role of Nord Stream 2 in Rising Tensions in Eastern Europe, with Martin Jirušek and Robert Orttung.