Quotes of the Day:
"Men being, as has been said, by nature, all free, equal, and independent, no one can be put out of this estate, and subjected to the political power of another, without his own consent. The only way whereby any one divests himself of his natural liberty, and puts on the bonds of civil society, is by agreeing with other men to join and unite into a community for their comfortable, safe, and peaceable living one amongst another, in a secure enjoyment of their properties, and a greater security against any, that are not of it. . . . This any number of men may do, because it injures not the freedom of the rest; they are left as they were in the liberty of the state of nature. When any number of men have so consented to make one community or government, they are thereby presently incorporated, and make one body politic, wherein the majority have a right to act and conclude the rest.
-John Locke, Second Treatise of Government
"The old terms must be invented with new meaning and given new explanations. Liberty, equality, and fraternity are no longer what they were in the days of the late-lamented guillotine. This is what the politicians will not understand; and that is why I hate them. They want only their own special revolutions- external revolutions, political revolutions, etc. But that is only dabbling. What is really needed is a revolution of the human spirit."
- Henrik Ibsen
"...the predominance of moral factors in all military decisions. On them constantly turns the issue of war and battle. In the history of war they form the more constant factors, changing only in degree, whereas the physical factors are different in almost every war and every military situation."
-Sir Basil H. Liddel-Hart (Strategy, 1954)
1. New Cruise Missile Gives North Korea Lethal Capability
2. North Korea gives train missile launch video a Hollywood touch with drone shots, multiple cameras
3. Initial Analysis of North Korea’s “New Type Long-Range Cruise Missile”
4. Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center’s UEP May Not Be Operating
5. Uranium enrichment in Yongbyon is growing: report
6. Week of Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests on Korean Peninsula
7. N. Korea says U.S. 'double standard' to blame for deadlock in talks
8. Moon says two Koreas' accession to U.N. 30 years ago was 1st step for cooperation, but still long way to go
9. N.K. paper urges farmers to brace for hailstone damage ahead of fall harvest
10. EXPLAINER: Kim's Launches Show Push to Boost Nuke Arsenal
11. N. Korea shows off nuclear power to reach all parts of S. Korea
12. North Korean weapons advance; negotiations stalled
13. Worries as N.Korea Launches Missiles 'from Train'
14. Unification minister promises support for humanitarian aid to North Korea despite missile launches
15. Koreans in their 20s and 40s show generational divide on key issues
16. Assault on Free Speech: YouTuber Choi Tae-woon Imprisoned for 2 Years for “Defamation”
17. Int'l Rights Watchdog Urges Moon to Scrap Press Gag Bill
18. Satellite images reveal North Korea expanding facility used to produce weapons-grade uranium
19. Violators of N. Korea's anti-reactionary thought law face punishment along with their families
20. Korea’s Risky Missile-Measuring Contest Shows Lack of Faith in the U.S.
21. Tensions rise on Korean Peninsula as both sides test missiles
1. New Cruise Missile Gives North Korea Lethal Capability
New Cruise Missile Gives North Korea Lethal Capability
Foreign Policy · by Behnam Ben Taleblu, Bradley Bowman, David Maxwell · September 17, 2021
An expert's point of view on a current event.
The long-range weapon could strike South Korea, Japan, and U.S. bases in the region.
People watch a South Korean television program showing a North Korean missile launch at the Seoul Railway Station on Sept. 15. Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
When North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on Wednesday, it wasn’t just a violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions. The launches also come on the heels of reports this past weekend that the Kim Jong Un regime conducted successful tests of a new long-range cruise missile. While North Korean ballistic missiles are nothing new, last weekend’s news appears to demonstrate that Pyongyang now possesses a cruise missile capability that it could use to conduct long-range and difficult-to-detect conventional or potentially nuclear strikes against South Korea, Japan, or U.S. military bases in the region.
The development of the cruise missile system by North Korea’s U.S.-sanctioned Academy of National Defense Science is just the latest concerning example of the proliferation of cruise missile capabilities around the world. This trend underscores the need to enforce and strengthen sanctions against North Korea and to accelerate delivery of improved cruise missile defenses to U.S. and allied forces.
North Korea’s new system appears to be a land-attack cruise missile, meaning it is intended to strike ground rather than maritime targets. Based on pictures from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea’s state media service, the cruise missile was launched from a mobile container and may have employed a solid-fuel booster, which is not uncommon. The projectile’s shape, with its rounded nosecone, swept wings, engine inlet, three tail fins, and narrowed aft section, bears a close resemblance to other countries’ land-attack cruise missiles. According to KCNA, the missile uses a “newly-developed turbofan engine,” which likely implies that it travels at subsonic speeds. While North Korean state media also touted the missile’s accuracy and guidance capabilities, it is still unknown what specific capabilities the missile might employ to reach its target, such as radar homing or electro-optical navigation.
When North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on Wednesday, it wasn’t just a violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions. The launches also come on the heels of reports this past weekend that the Kim Jong Un regime conducted successful tests of a new long-range cruise missile. While North Korean ballistic missiles are nothing new, last weekend’s news appears to demonstrate that Pyongyang now possesses a cruise missile capability that it could use to conduct long-range and difficult-to-detect conventional or potentially nuclear strikes against South Korea, Japan, or U.S. military bases in the region.
The development of the cruise missile system by North Korea’s U.S.-sanctioned Academy of National Defense Science is just the latest concerning example of the proliferation of cruise missile capabilities around the world. This trend underscores the need to enforce and strengthen sanctions against North Korea and to accelerate delivery of improved cruise missile defenses to U.S. and allied forces.
North Korea’s new system appears to be a land-attack cruise missile, meaning it is intended to strike ground rather than maritime targets. Based on pictures from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea’s state media service, the cruise missile was launched from a mobile container and may have employed a solid-fuel booster, which is not uncommon. The projectile’s shape, with its rounded nosecone, swept wings, engine inlet, three tail fins, and narrowed aft section, bears a close resemblance to other countries’ land-attack cruise missiles. According to KCNA, the missile uses a “newly-developed turbofan engine,” which likely implies that it travels at subsonic speeds. While North Korean state media also touted the missile’s accuracy and guidance capabilities, it is still unknown what specific capabilities the missile might employ to reach its target, such as radar homing or electro-optical navigation.
The new missile apparently flew a distance of 930 miles in 126 minutes. That range would enable Pyongyang to potentially target every U.S. base in South Korea and Japan. It would also mean the missile is the longest-range cruise missile in North Korea’s arsenal.
Kim is also employing an old script in periodically conducting provocative missile launches in an effort to grab international attention.
“This activity highlights [North Korea’s] continuing focus on developing its military program and the threats that poses to its neighbors and the international community,” U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said in a response to the cruise missile test. The U.S. commitment to defending South Korea and Japan, the statement said, “remains ironclad.”
Underscoring this threat to the United States and its allies, North Korean media called the cruise missile “a strategic weapon”—wording that implies it could be used to deliver a nuclear warhead. That is no idle claim given the fact that the U.S. intelligence community assesses that North Korea possesses dozens of nuclear warheads.
Unlike the ballistic missiles that were reportedly launched from a train on Wednesday, cruise missiles fly low and hug the terrain they traverse, making them more difficult than other missiles for radar to detect. While North Korea’s cruise missiles fly at slower speeds than ballistic missiles, land-attack cruise missiles can fly on an unpredictable flight path, exacerbating detection efforts. Indeed, the North Korean cruise missile reportedly flew in a figure-eight pattern.
Moreover, land-attack missiles need less ground support to launch and can hit their targets from any direction. That creates headaches for some existing missile defense radar systems that do not provide 360-degree radar coverage.
The new land-attack cruise missiles, therefore, provide Pyongyang with a valuable and lethal new capability, diversifying its arsenal of multiple short-range, medium-range, intermediate-range, and even intercontinental ballistic missiles. All these can be used by the Kim regime to threaten and coerce its adversaries.
Existing Security Council resolutions focus on ballistic missiles as the delivery vehicle for a North Korean nuclear weapon. As early as 2006, the Security Council decided that Pyongyang “shall suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile programme” and should “abandon all other existing weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programme in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner.” Not only has that not happened, but North Korea is also now exploiting the lack of an explicit reference to cruise missiles in these resolutions to increase its long-range strike capabilities.
Kim is also employing an old script in periodically conducting provocative missile launches in an effort to grab international attention, extort sanctions relief, and gain economic concessions in return for no genuine progress toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The United States, as well as its allies and partners, should not fall prey to Kim’s latest gambit.
Conjecture regarding Kim’s motives, however, should not obscure the fact this cruise missile capability significantly increases the threat to U.S. and allied interests in the region.
Accordingly, the Biden administration should adopt new sanctions focused on North Korea’s cruise missiles, while leading a multilateral effort for the Security Council to do the same. Although that step likely won’t deter Pyongyang’s continued development of cruise missiles, it will at least raise the costs for Kim.
More importantly, Pyongyang’s apparent progress in fielding a long-range nuclear-capable cruise missile should serve as another wake-up call for the U.S. Defense Department. Forward-positioned U.S. bases, including those in the Indo-Pacific and Middle East, remain unacceptably vulnerable to cruise missile threats.
A 2020 report by the U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center assessed that “[t]he cruise missile threat to US forces is increasing in terms of the number of countries possessing LACMs [land-attack cruise missiles], the total number of LACMs, and the number of LACMs possessing advanced capabilities.”
North Korea’s burgeoning interest in cruise missiles is consistent with efforts by its partner Iran to field increasingly capable cruise missiles. In fact, when Iran struck Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, it did so with land-attack cruise missiles and drones. A 2019 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report on Iran’s military capabilities noted that cruise missiles “present a unique threat profile” compared to ballistic missiles.
The Pentagon should not be surprised if great-power adversaries or rogue states employ cruise missiles against forward-deployed U.S. forces in the future. That’s why the Defense Department must expedite and prioritize efforts to field a next-generation indirect fires protection capability. The new air and missile defense system the U.S. Army is developing with industry will fill a dangerous gap in U.S. capabilities, focusing at least initially on countering unmanned aircraft and cruise missiles.
In the meantime, the U.S. Army can and should deploy, as soon as possible, both of the interim Iron Dome batteries it acquired from Israel to begin to better address cruise missile threats to U.S. forces.
These and other steps can help persuade North Korea and other adversaries that they cannot successfully accomplish their political objectives through military force against the Unites States and its allies.
Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Bradley Bowman is the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Twitter: @Brad_L_Bowman
David Maxwell is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
2. North Korea gives train missile launch video a Hollywood touch with drone shots, multiple cameras
I assume our ISR capabilities detected the launch but I wonder if the train launch is real or just propaganda. They are Hollywood like photos and video.
It is all about influence operations and leading with influence, for internal and external target audiences.
North Korea gives train missile launch video a Hollywood touch with drone shots, multiple cameras
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Published: 3:11pm, 17 Sep, 2021
1
A missile is launched from a train in North Korea on Wednesday. Photo: KCNA/Korea News Service via AP
North Korea released video of its new system to launch missiles from trains, offering a multitude of camera angles that show its capabilities, and underscoring Kim Jong-un’s push to increase the production value of state propaganda.
The video starts with a shot from a drone flying over train tracks that lead into a tunnel. From there, two reddish-bronze train carriages emerge pushed by a locomotive.
The airborne drone footage captures men in what appear to be matching beige jumpsuits leaving a carriage, while the roof from one carriage is retracted and a missile rises.
The video of the test on Wednesday of two short-range ballistic missiles then displays four different angles of one of the launches, including one from overhead, followed by shots of how the missile was set into position on the train.
It was North Korea’s first test of ballistic missiles since March, and followed what Pyongyang said was a test of new, long-range cruise missiles over the weekend.
“We have established a railway mobile missile regiment that enhances our ability for simultaneous and concentrated strike on our threats, and better respond to various threats,” a state TV announcer said over the video.
North Korea’s test launch of railway-borne missile sparks international alarm
Quick edits of videos shot from a variety of angles that include drones are a far cry from parades under former leader, Kim Jong-il. Back then, there was little variation in the shots and soldiers could be seen moving heavy movie cameras into position by hand, reinforcing the impression that North Korea wasn’t just isolated, but stuck in the past.
Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the leader, likely has had a role in this change from her position in the state’s propaganda department, which manages the messages that go out to the masses through official media. She offered a blistering rhetorical attack this week on South Korean President Moon Jae-in for making “thoughtless utterances” and spoiling the prospects for peace.
North Korea, which is barred by United Nations resolutions from ballistic missile testing, has been building up its capabilities to strike the US mainland with nuclear warheads and deliver tactical strikes against South Korea and Japan, which host tens of thousands of American troops.
North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo-jong. File photo: Kyodo News via AP
The footage of the missile launch follows a military parade broadcast last Friday that showcased the many advancements state TV has made under Kim. The event opened with military marching bands, fireworks, and sky divers soaring through the air with North Korean flags affixed to their ankles.
The new looks, have been rolled out steadily since early 2019, when North Korea began a transition to high-definition broadcasts. Computer graphics have been added into reports on economic production.
Sets took on a more modern look and younger reporters in the field and newsreaders in fashionable clothing made their way onto screens.
3. Initial Analysis of North Korea’s “New Type Long-Range Cruise Missile”
Excerpts:
The US, South Korea and Japan have thus far not directly confirmed the tests, missile type or reported performance. They are likely to have obtained much less information than in the case of a 1,500 km ballistic missile test, however, given the lower altitude and much less energetic propulsion of a cruise missile and the reported conduct of the test solely within North Korean territory.
...
The September 13 statement clearly shows the political purposes behind publicizing this missile system. As is often the case, Pyongyang apparently is trying to demonstrate the continued advancement of its missile (and, by extension, nuclear) capabilities in the face of international opposition, United Nations sanctions, economic hardship and COVID. In addition to bolstering deterrence of external threats, the regime is probably seeking to gain prestige with domestic and international audiences by showing the North’s technological prowess and showing the North Korean public that its policy direction is correct.
Initial Analysis of North Korea’s “New Type Long-Range Cruise Missile”
On September 13, North Korea released a statement reporting successful flight tests on September 11 and 12 of “new type long-range cruise missiles.”[1] It also released photographs depicting a cruise missile resembling the US Tomahawk and other foreign long-range cruise missiles, both in flight and being launched from one of five launch tubes/canisters mounted on a wheeled mobile launcher.
We have no corroborating information about this new missile. We also do not yet know if this missile will end up being deployed, in what numbers, on what platforms, or with what warhead type or accuracy. In any case, a North Korean land-attack cruise missile (LACM) will almost certainly augment rather than supplant Pyongyang’s ballistic missile force, which is already capable of accomplishing just about any mission a North Korean LACM can.
Nevertheless, a LACM force could augment the ballistic missile force in several useful ways, including by further complicating alliance air and missile defenses, permitting a substantial increase in overall ballistic-plus-cruise missile force size and further diversifying and increasing the flexibility of the missile force. The North also clearly had political purposes for publicizing the LACM, including demonstrating the continued advancement of its missile (and, by extension, nuclear) capabilities in the face of international opposition, bolstering deterrence of external threats and seeking to gain prestige with domestic and international audiences by pitching the North’s technological prowess.
Information to Date
The September 13 statement reported[2]:
- the missile is “a strategic weapon of great significance” and “another effective deterrence means”;
- it “traveled for 7[,]580 seconds [2.1 hours] along an oval and pattern-8 flight orbits in the air above the territorial land and waters of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] and hit targets 1[,]500 km away [an average speed of 712 kph/442 mph]”;
- that “the technical indices such as the thrust power of the newly developed turbofan (“turbine-blast”) engine, the missiles’ navigation control and the end guided hit accuracy by the combined guided mode (“last-stage guiding and hitting by combined guidance”) met the requirements of designs”;
- the missile “has been pushed forward according to the scientific and reliable weapon system development process for the past two years and, in this course, detailed tests of missile parts, scores of engine ground thrust tests, various flight tests, control and guidance tests, warhead power tests, etc. were conducted with success”; and that
- “The achievement is a bright fruition of our Party’s policy of prioritizing defence science and technology and a signal success made in the defence field,” and “another great manifestation of the tremendous capabilities of the defence science and technology and the munitions industry of our country.”
The US, South Korea and Japan have thus far not directly confirmed the tests, missile type or reported performance. They are likely to have obtained much less information than in the case of a 1,500 km ballistic missile test, however, given the lower altitude and much less energetic propulsion of a cruise missile and the reported conduct of the test solely within North Korean territory.
Analysis
Kim Jong Un’s report to the January 2021 Eighth Party Congress mentioned that the North had “proceeded to develop…intermediate-range cruise missiles.”[3] The missile unveiled on September 13 presumably is the missile Kim referred to, although a 1,500-km system technically is medium-range rather than intermediate-range (3,000-5,500 km). It could cover all of South Korea and Japan if launched from within North Korean territory, as well as from the adjacent sea areas.
If the North’s claims are accurate, this would be its longest-range cruise missile and, by implication, its first purpose-built land-attack cruise missile, although the September 13 statement does not directly claim a land-attack mission or test. The claimed range, speed and configuration of the missile are consistent with LACMs developed in the US (deployed 1983), Russia (1984), China (1996), Pakistan (2010), India (first tested 2013) and South Korea (deployed 2006).[4]
The statement did not specify the type of warhead the missile is intended to carry, but the references to “strategic” and “deterrence” suggest a nuclear one. It is unknown, however, whether North Korea has yet developed a nuclear warhead small enough in diameter to fit the apparent size class of this missile (perhaps 0.5-0.6 meters). Kim’s January 2021 report noted, “It is necessary to…make nuclear weapons smaller and lighter for more tactical uses.”[5]
Interestingly, that report also referred to “ultra-modern tactical nuclear weapons including new-type tactical rockets and intermediate-range cruise missiles whose conventional warheads are the most powerful in the world.” This suggests the missile is intended to carry a conventional payload—either exclusively or in addition to a nuclear one. The military utility of a conventional LACM would be highly dependent on its accuracy. The September 13 statement’s references to “combined guidance” and “end guided” or “last-stage” guidance imply use of inertial guidance and some sort of terminal update/seeker.[6] But the type of terminal guidance and its accuracy are unknown.
The statement’s claim that the missile uses a turbofan engine is consistent with the reported range, speed and size of the missile. North Korea probably gained access to turbofan technology by acquiring Russian Kh-35 anti-ship cruise missiles some years before the deployment in 2014 of its own apparent spin-off, the Kumsong-3 (KN-19) missile. The LACM’s “newly developed” engine presumably is based on the Kumsong-3’s.
The statement’s description of the missile’s development and test procedures (including ground tests of the engine, guidance system, and warhead, racetrack and figure-8 flight trajectories) appear sensible for this type of missile. This continues a trend of the North taking pains to try to substantiate that its missiles are reliable. The reference to conducting “various flight tests” suggests the September 11/12 tests were not the first.[7] The reference to development having been “pushed forward…for the past two years” could be read as bragging that the entire development process took that long. But that is highly unlikely; it is much more likely that the system has been in development for several years, and that development was accelerated two years ago.
The mobile launcher depicted in the photo appears to be the same vehicle used to carry the North’s new “oversized” multiple-launch rocket in previous military parades. Such a vehicle would provide for a highly survivable ground-launched missile system, akin to the North’s longstanding ballistic missile force. The missile also would be capable of launch from aircraft, submarine and surface ship platforms if the required development work is done.
Implications
It is important to recall that we do not yet know if this missile will end up being deployed, or in what numbers and on what platforms—much less its warhead type, accuracy or even range. In any case, a North Korean LACM will almost certainly augment rather than supplant the existing, longstanding and extensive ballistic missile force. The ballistic missile force is already capable of accomplishing just about any mission a North Korean LACM can.
Nevertheless, a force of 1,500 km range LACMs could augment the ballistic missile force in several useful ways:
- Instead of focusing mainly on the threat from ballistic missiles (which is challenging enough), the allies in Northeast Asia would also have to contend with a low-flying, maneuverable LACM threat that is difficult to defend against in its own right. And attacking with both ballistic missiles and LACMs offers synergies the North can use to better suppress allied air and missile defenses.
- LACMs can enter allied airspace from unexpected directions, using circuitous flight routes from land, or if launched from sea or air platforms.
- Assuming a North Korean LACM is small enough to be launched from a torpedo tube, LACMs could be carried on many more submarines than ballistic missiles, which require purpose-built or modified submarines. (Indeed, LACMs would be a much more sensible and cost-effective option for the sea-based leg of a North Korean “triad” than submarine-launched ballistic missiles.) Most surface ships also could be fitted to launch LACMs, which would be easier to conceal onboard than ballistic missiles.
- LACMs probably can be produced more easily than ballistic missiles, assuming North Korea has mastered aero-engine production. This would make it possible to substantially increase the overall size of the ballistic-plus-cruise missile force, which would be especially important for boosting conventional warfighting capabilities. (Nuclear force size probably would be limited by the size of the warhead stockpile.) A large LACM force, in conjunction with the existing large ballistic missile force, would also aid in saturating allied air and missile defenses.
- North Korea also has the option of developing an anti-ship version of the LACM, although it would have to overcome the challenges of obtaining sufficient long-range targeting data—especially during wartime.
- Overall, adding LACMs would further diversify and increase the flexibility of the North’s missile force.
There are also two potential implications of a LACM force that are open to more scrutiny:
-
First, the concern that dual-capable LACMs “are particularly destabilizing in the event of conflict as it can be unclear which kind of warhead they are carrying.” This implies that, during a crisis or a conventional conflict with North Korea, the US would be maintaining a hair-trigger nuclear posture and might mistakenly “go nuclear” if North Korea launched what were, in fact, conventional LACMs. As this author has contended previously, however, such a scenario “is much more reflective of the US and USSR during the Cold War than it is of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.” Both sides on the peninsula almost certainly expect a conflict to begin with the use of conventional weapons, and probably to continue conventionally for a substantial period. North Korea has long had the option to initiate a war (or escalate a conventional war) with nuclear-armed dual-capable ballistic missiles. But the allies appear to have relied on the threat of retaliation by America’s massive, survivable nuclear capabilities deployed offshore to deter such a move rather than to hold forces on a hair trigger to launch before the DPRK can (which still might not prevent a DPRK nuclear strike).
-
Second, the concern that the advent of the North Korean LACM marks “a new indication that an arms race between North and South Korea was heating up on the Korean Peninsula,” part of a “tit-for-tat weapons buildup.” We do not know the actual motivation behind the North’s unveiling of the LACM, or even if the system will end up being deployed. Any military motivations the North has in pursuing a LACM are more likely to take into account the overall capabilities (both conventional and nuclear) posed by the entire alliance than just a North/South missile-for-missile comparison.
The September 13 statement clearly shows the political purposes behind publicizing this missile system. As is often the case, Pyongyang apparently is trying to demonstrate the continued advancement of its missile (and, by extension, nuclear) capabilities in the face of international opposition, United Nations sanctions, economic hardship and COVID. In addition to bolstering deterrence of external threats, the regime is probably seeking to gain prestige with domestic and international audiences by showing the North’s technological prowess and showing the North Korean public that its policy direction is correct.
- [1]
See: “Long-range Cruise Missiles Newly Developed by Academy of Defense Science Successfully Test-fired,” Korean Central News Agency, September 13, 2021; and “Newly-developed long-range cruise missiles test-fired,” Voice of Korea, September 13, 2021.
- [2]
Ibid.
- [3]
“On Report Made by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at 8th Party Congress of WPK,” Korean Central News Agency, January 9, 2021.
- [4]
- [5]
“On Report Made by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at 8th Party Congress of WPK,” Korean Central News Agency.
- [6]
“Long-range Cruise Missiles Newly Developed by Academy of Defense Science Successfully Test-fired,” Korean Central News Agency; and Newly-developed long-range cruise missiles test-fired,” Voice of Korea.
- [7]
“Long-range Cruise Missiles Newly Developed by Academy of Defense Science Successfully Test-fired.”
4. Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center’s UEP May Not Be Operating
The intention is still to enrich uranium.
If North Korea is indeed in the process of replacing the cooling units for a system better-suited for the plant’s operational functionality (assuming an alternative means of cooling is not already in place), it has likely paused uranium enrichment activities until that system upgrade is complete.
Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center’s UEP May Not Be Operating | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates the cooling units on the annex rooftop next to the cascade halls at the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP) were removed between August 25 and September 1. As proper air conditioning and system cooling is essential to the uranium enrichment process—including maintaining a consistent temperature inside the cascade halls—it is unlikely that the UEP is currently operating if no other means for cooling is in place. It remains to be seen if the cooling units will be replaced or relocated. Additionally, new construction has started in an area just north of Cascade Hall #2, where a wall was constructed between September 1 and September 9. Excavations then started between September 9 and September 14 at the eastern end of this area as reported by CNN, but the purpose of this activity is not yet evident.
Figure 1. Cooling units removed since August 25, 2021.
Figure 1A. Five cooling units visible, August 25, 2021. Image Pleiades © CNES 2021, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact [email protected]
Figure 1B. Cooling units removed and initial construction visible behind Cascade Hall 2, September 1, 2021. Image © 2021 Planet Labs, Inc. cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact [email protected]
Figure 1C. Cooling units removed and construction visible behind Cascade Hall 2, September 9, 2021. Image Pleiades © CNES 2021, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact [email protected]
Cooling Unit Activity at the UEP
The cooling capacity of the centrifuge hall at the UEP has been a focus of and an issue with North Korea’s enrichment program since 2014, when three cooling units were upgraded to support the functioning of Cascade Hall #2. In 2020, one cooling unit was permanently removed that was associated with the first cascade hall.
Imagery from August and September 2021 show that the five remaining cooling units were removed sometime between August 25 and September 1, reported in IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi’s remarks to the IAEA Board of Governors on September 13.
The purpose of the units’ removal is unclear. It may be part of efforts to make future improvements to the cooling system. The initial set of three cooling units for Cascade Hall #2 had originally been placed too close to the building and had to be replaced, as they caused condensation problems as reflected by frost and stains on the cascade hall roof. That original set was replaced in 2014, but only after another newer set had been installed and readied next to the set serving Cascade Hall #1. The installation was apparently done in such a way as to prevent any interruption to the then-ongoing centrifuge operations. Alternatively, that particular type of cooling system could have simply reached the end of its service life. The life expectancy of such cooling systems is typically 15 to 20 years, but irregular maintenance, extreme weather conditions and electricity inconsistencies can all reduce that life span.
If North Korea is indeed in the process of replacing the cooling units for a system better-suited for the plant’s operational functionality (assuming an alternative means of cooling is not already in place), it has likely paused uranium enrichment activities until that system upgrade is complete.
5. Uranium enrichment in Yongbyon is growing: report
We will do the right thing because it is the right thing to do. I cannot say the same for Kim Jong-un.
Excerpts:
Even after the North announced it tested long-range cruise missiles on Sept. 11 and 12, U.S. nuclear envoy Sung Kim re-iterated the American commitment to humanitarian support for North Korea.
“The U.S. government is sticking with its position on humanitarian support to the North, because it is not interested in getting more involved with the North at this moment, other than to maintain the status quo, because right now it has other issues to worry about like Afghanistan,” said Kim Hong-kyun, a former South Korean negotiator in the six-party talks for the North’s denuclearization. “The North may have a whole scenario of provocations planned and will likely continue rolling them out [to get U.S. attention].”
Friday
September 17, 2021
Uranium enrichment in Yongbyon is growing: report
Satellite images of the Yongbyon nuclear complex in North Korea shows that its uranium enrichment plant was expanded from early August to mid-September. The satellite images were provided from Maxar to the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. [MIDDLEBURY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES]
North Korea is expanding a uranium enrichment plant within the Yongbyon nuclear complex, reported the Middlebury Institute of International Studies on Thursday.
“Satellite images show that North Korea is expanding the size of its uranium enrichment plant at Yongbyon,” wrote Jeffrey Lewis, Joshua Pollack and David Schmerler in a report published earlier in the week.
The report shows satellite images taken by Maxar, a private satellite image provider, of the uranium enrichment plant at Yongbyon taken from early August to mid-September.
The images show that a forested area next to the uranium enrichment plant is cleared of the trees by Sept. 1, and has a wall enclosing the new space by Sept. 14. Panels between the enrichment facility and the new space were removed by Sept. 14, to allow direct access between the two.
“The new area is approximately 1,000 square meters, enough space to house 1,000 additional centrifuges,” reads the report. “The addition of 1,000 new centrifuges would increase the plant’s capacity to produce highly enriched uranium by 25 percent.”
The Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center is the North’s largest and best known nuclear facility, responsible for producing the fissile material used in the regime’s six nuclear tests.
For years, reactors at the complex have been largely inactive, but other parts of Yongbyon – particularly the uranium enrichment plant – have displayed signs of periodic activity.
In November 2020, 38 North, a U.S.-based North Korea monitoring group, said it observed smoke or vapor rising from a building at the plant used to recover and purify uranium from raw concentrates, though researchers noted it was unclear what was taking place.
In February, the group said it found indications of continual operation of the plant from January, based on satellite images.
The activities at the uranium enrichment plant likely reflect North Korean plans to increase its nuclear weapons production, said the Middlebury report, which is in line with what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in a speech earlier this year.
During a speech to the Workers’ Party of Korea in January, Kim emphasized production of “super-sized nuclear warheads” and the need to “make nuclear weapons smaller and lighter for more tactical uses,” according to a report by the North’s official Rodong Sinmun on Jan. 10.
“Achieving these goals will probably require North Korea to increase the amount of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium available for weapons production,” said the Middlebury report. “The production of thermonuclear weapons (“super-sized nuclear warheads”), in particular, requires substantial amounts of highly enriched uranium.”
In this Jan. 10 file photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claps his hands at the ruling party congress in Pyongyang, North Korea. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: ″KCNA″ which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. [KCNA/AP]
American officials told CNN Thursday that they are aware of the recent activity at the uranium enrichment plant, though no official statements were released from the U.S. government as of press time Friday.
The discovery of activities at the Yongbyon site follows missile tests and launches by the North in the past week. The North announced Monday it tested what it called new long-range cruise missiles on Sept. 11 and 12, and launched a ballistic missile from a train-borne launcher Wednesday.
All this may be part of Pyongyang’s attempt to pressure the United States for sanctions relief, said some experts in Korea.
“The North has additional key uranium enrichment facilities, other than the one at Yongbyon, that it has kept hidden as so-called ‘wild cards,’” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University. “It knows the United States has eyes on the Yongbyon facility. So by making a move at a very visible site, it may be trying to pressure the United States to lift the sanctions.”
The Joe Biden administration has maintained that it is open to dialogue with Pyongyang on denuclearization and humanitarian assistance, but kept the sanctions on the North, which the U.S. government has implemented annually since 2008.
U.S. nuclear envoy Sung Kim speaks with the press during his visit to Seoul on Aug. 23. [YONHAP]
Even after the North announced it tested long-range cruise missiles on Sept. 11 and 12, U.S. nuclear envoy Sung Kim re-iterated the American commitment to humanitarian support for North Korea.
“The U.S. government is sticking with its position on humanitarian support to the North, because it is not interested in getting more involved with the North at this moment, other than to maintain the status quo, because right now it has other issues to worry about like Afghanistan,” said Kim Hong-kyun, a former South Korean negotiator in the six-party talks for the North’s denuclearization. “The North may have a whole scenario of provocations planned and will likely continue rolling them out [to get U.S. attention].”
A ballistic missile is fired from a train-borne missile regiment in an undisclosed location in North Korea on Wednesday. [NEWS1]
6. Week of Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests on Korean Peninsula
Unlike North Korea, the ROK has been transparent with its defense plans in its defense white papers over the years and Defense Reform 2.0. I am pretty sure the ROK SLBM capability will be very useful in support its Kill Chain concept and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation System. The ROK developments are not a surprise.
Week of Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests on Korean Peninsula
North and South Korea both test new missiles, including a new South Korean submarine-launched missile.
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The Korean Peninsula has seen an incredible number of missile tests this week, including first looks of new advanced South Korean weapons.
South Korea is now only the eighth naval power with the capability of launching ballistic missiles from submarines, and the only one without nuclear weapons. Submarine-launched cruise missiles, with smaller warheads and generally shorter ranges, are a more common capability. The longer ranges and higher payload capacity of ballistic missiles make them better vehicles for nuclear weapons. South Korea says its new non-nuclear ballistic missiles are intended for use against heavily fortified targets deep in North Korean territory.
While most SLBMs have extended, even intercontinental ranges, the South Korean missile, called the Hyunmoo-4-4, likely has much shorter ranges, relevant only to the comparatively compact geography of the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea first tested its own sub-launched ballistic missile in 2016 and unveiled a new more advanced variant at a military parade in January.
South Korea’s missile was fired from its new Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarines, commissioned just last month, and observed by President Moon Jae-in, who said the new missiles would provide a “sure deterrence” against North Korean threats.
Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, a senior North Korean official in her own right, responded to South Korea’s tests and Moon’s remarks by warning that they risked the “complete destruction” of ties between the two countries. North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the East Sea (also called the Sea of Japan) hours before South Korea’s submarine missile test on Wednesday.
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Earlier in the week, North Korea tested a new type of cruise missile that reportedly traveled nearly 1,000 miles to its target and may be capable of carrying a small nuclear weapon. The missile’s range and appearance share at least superficial similarity with the United States’ 40-year-old Tomahawk cruise missiles.
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South Korea also tested an advanced new land-based ballistic missile – likely a variation of the submarine-launched Hyunmoo-4-4 – as well as a new air-launched missile, and revealed advances on a new supersonic anti-ship cruise missile.
South Korea’s defense ministry said the new ballistic missiles are “capable of striking concrete buildings and underground tunnels, and it can be neutralized by striking the main target accurately and strongly. High-powered ballistic missiles with improved performance will be used as a core force to improve our military’s peacetime deterrence capabilities and project overwhelming response capabilities in case of emergency.”
The defense ministry released videos of the various missile tests, as well as tests of an advanced new solid-propellant rocket motor.
South Korea’s tests follow the official lifting of four-decade old-restrictions on South Korea’s missile development at a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Moon at the White House in May. To prevent unwanted escalation on the Korean Peninsula and placate potential concerns of other Northeast Asian countries, the United States had imposed limits on the range and warhead-size of South Korea’s arsenal of ballistic missiles as a condition of the two countries’ alliance. As North Korea became a nuclear power and has improved its conventional arsenal of missiles as well, those limitations were repeatedly relaxed, and now South Korea faces no restrictions from the United States on its ballistic missile development.
7. N. Korea says U.S. 'double standard' to blame for deadlock in talks
When I read about this type of north Korean propaganda, the voice of the SNL church lady (Dana Carvey) character is in my ear: "Well , isn't that special." I wonder how she would do sitting down with Kim Jong-un. Afterall he and Satan seem to have a lot in common. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuJpalsj9sQ. Maybe she should lead negotiations since she has experience with the devil.
But I guess it is accurate to say we are the roadblock to talks since Kim will not talk until we lift sanctions (which is the first step in ending our "hostile policy" - the next steps are ending the alliance, removing US troops and ending extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan) . Should we lift sanctions in response to blackmail diplomacy? Do we really want Kim to double down on what he will assess is a successful strategy?
N. Korea says U.S. 'double standard' to blame for deadlock in talks | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 17 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. "double standard" toward North Korea is to blame for the prolonged deadlock in talks between the two countries, a North Korean international affairs commentator claimed Friday.
The commentator, Kim Yong-chol, made the case in an article carried by the official Korean Central News Agency, saying the U.S. denounced the North's missile test this week as a provocation while remaining silent about a similar missile test by South Korea.
"The reason for the continuing deadlock in dialogue between the DPRK and the U.S. lies with the U.S. double standard," Kim said, using the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Kim said the North is aware of the "signals the U.S. is sending to induce us to dialogue" while misleading public opinion as if Pyongyang is responsible for the deadlock.
"We have never opposed dialogue itself," Kim said. "However, in a situation where the U.S. is holding on to double standard, it is obvious that dialogue in which fairness, equality and respect for the counterpart are guaranteed, cannot happen."
Kim also said "dialogue and pressure" cannot coexist.
"The U.S. cannot speak of denuclearization unless its withdrawal of hostile policy is guaranteed," he said.
(END)
8. Moon says two Koreas' accession to U.N. 30 years ago was 1st step for cooperation, but still long way to go
Moon says two Koreas' accession to U.N. 30 years ago was 1st step for cooperation, but still long way to go | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 17 (Yonhap) -- President Moon Jae-in issued a message Friday on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of South and North Korea becoming members of the United Nations together.
"Thirty years ago, the two Koreas were admitted as members of the United Nations," he wrote on his social media accounts.
On the "International Day of Peace" the same year, 1991, representatives of the Koreas resolved to join the collective endeavors of the mankind for peace and prosperity at the U.N. General Assembly, expressing to the world their commitment to bringing peace and prosperity on peninsula, he noted.
The two sides' simultaneous accession to the U.N. represented "their first step towards international dialogue and cooperation." Moon wrote.
Nevertheless, he added, "There remains much to be done to realize complete denuclearization and permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula."
He expressed hope for support from the U.N. in efforts for regional peace and prosperity.
(END)
9. N.K. paper urges farmers to brace for hailstone damage ahead of fall harvest
I guess Kim is borrowing a tactic seen elsewhere - make the excuses before the harvest failure - lay the ground for blaming someone and something else before you fail. Or maybe Kim has perfected that technique; it is one of the things he has "proliferated" around the world (afterall it can be a technique of subversion if used within political systems).
N.K. paper urges farmers to brace for hailstone damage ahead of fall harvest | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's official newspaper on Friday urged farmers to stay on high alert against possible damage from hailstones, saying just a moment of carelessness could cause "irrevocable" consequences.
"In recent years, our country has been affected by disastrous climate conditions, including hailstones in some regions in the autumn," the Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the North's ruling party, said.
"The reality urgently requires all workers in the farming sector see the fall of hailstones as a foregone conclusion and make thorough preparations," the paper added. "A moment of carelessness could lead to irrevocable consequences."
The paper also urged farmers to hasten harvests of crops in hailstone-prone regions, while at the same time make efforts to recover as much as possible from any possible damage caused by such natural disasters.
North Korea has recently ramped up calls for effective land and water management to prevent the repeat of the damage caused by last year's summer typhoons and resultant flooding that devastated many farmlands and hurt harvests.
Recently, state media reported about 1,170 homes were destroyed or flooded, and some 5,000 residents were evacuated due to heavy rainfall in the country's eastern province of Hamgyong.
In June, leader Kim Jong-un said that his country's "food situation is now getting tense as the agricultural sector failed to fulfill its grain production plan" due to damage from typhoons last year.
kokobj@yna.co.kr
(END)
10. EXPLAINER: Kim's Launches Show Push to Boost Nuke Arsenal
Miniaturization is key. From this April 2021 CRS report:
According to the U.S. IC, North Korea aims to develop a nuclear warhead that is “miniaturized,” or sufficiently lightweight and small enough to mount on a long-range ballistic missile. As of July 2017, a DIA assessment and some outside observers believed North Korea had achieved the level of miniaturization required to fit a nuclear device on weapons ranging across the spectrum of its missiles, from short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10472/20
EXPLAINER: Kim's Launches Show Push to Boost Nuke Arsenal
By U.S. News & World Report4 min
FILE - In this Sept. 9, 2021, file photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un waves from a balcony toward the assembled troops and spectators during a celebration of the nation's 73rd anniversary at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea. North Korea's recent sword-rattling after months of relative quiet makes clear that leader Kim Jong Un is working on expanding his weapons arsenal. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File) The Associated Press
By HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG, Associated Press
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea's recent sword-rattling after months of relative quiet makes clear that leader Kim Jong Un is working on expanding his weapons arsenal.
Nuclear-capable missiles hidden in trains that can be launched anywhere along a railway. A new cruise missile resembling the U.S. Tomahawk that can be potentially topped with atomic warheads. The apparent resumption of making fuel for potential nuclear bombs.
Likely they are an attempt to wrest concessions from Washington if, and when, long-stalled diplomatic talks on Kim's nuclear program resume. Part of the message is aimed domestically, however, to reinforce internal unity as North Koreans cope with deeper hardship in a never-healthy economy that's been battered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Here, then, is a look at Kim’s recent weapons tests, the first of their kind in six months, and what they may mean for efforts to confront the North's nuclear ambitions.
___
THE NEW WEAPONS
North Korea called its first train-launched ballistic missile tests successful, saying the two weapons launched Wednesday struck a target in the sea 800 kilometers (500 miles) away.
That puts all of South Korea and the U.S. military bases it hosts in range. Experts say the missiles are nuclear-capable.
Firing from trains also adds another platform for missile launches — in addition to mobile trucks, ground pads and a submarine method still being tested. A train-based platform utilizes North Korea's national rail network and allows for secret movement and launch, although experts note rail networks are vulnerable targets in a crisis.
For South Korea, “which has to defend itself from North Korean missiles, it's yet another headache,” said Lee Choon Geun, a missile expert at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute.
Last weekend, North Korea also tested what it called a new cruise missile, which flew about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles), making it the North’s longest-range cruise missile, capable of reaching all of Japan, which is also home to 50,000 U.S. troops.
It's being developed as nuclear capable and flies at a low altitude, making it harder to detect. Its development demonstrates North Korea's push to break enemy defense lines and diversify a weapons inventory that's heavy on ballistic missiles.
Satellite photos also show signs North Korea has restarted operations at its main factory for producing weapons-grade plutonium, a key ingredient used to make nuclear weapons.
___
WHAT KIM WANTS
Kim's resumed testing activities are largely meant "for developing military capabilities, but can also be attempts at shoring up domestic unity,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “Pyongyang could launch a provocation even when in desperate economic need because it wants to hide its weaknesses and extract external concessions.”
Kim may also be going back to a tried-and-true technique of pressuring the world with missile launches and outrageous threats before offering negotiations at the last minute meant to extract aid.
“It bears further watching on how things go, but it’s possible that we are near another phase in (North Korean) brinkmanship,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University.
North Korea’s recent tests could be low-key reactions to the continuation of joint U.S.-South Korean military drills and to South Korean efforts to build up its arms programs.
Kim's ultimate goal is likely winning relief from crippling international economic sanctions even as he gains U.S. recognition as a nuclear state, allowing him to hold onto nuclear weapons that he may see as his only guarantee for survival.
___
WHAT’S NEXT?
North Korea may keep ramping up its pressure campaign, at least until China starts pushing for calm ahead of the Beijing Olympics early next year. But it still could hold back on tests of more provocative weapons as it looks for less coercive diplomacy.
The North will have until around November to advance its weapons development with testing, Park, the analyst, said. After that, it risks hurting relations with China.
North Korea may also conduct another weapons test around a major state anniversary, like the ruling Workers’ Party foundation day on Oct. 10.
“For upgrading weapons capabilities, next in the testing queue may not be a nuclear device or ICBM but a submarine-based system,” Easley said.
Despite its recent weapons tests, North Korea has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests for more than three years. That suggests that it still wants to keep chances for future diplomacy with Washington alive.
It's possible that Pyongyang is carefully measuring its actions while looking for a window back into diplomacy.
“It wouldn’t be surprising if the North makes some effort soon to reach out to Washington or to Seoul, if just only to measure their intent,” said Hong Min, an analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification.
Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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11. N. Korea shows off nuclear power to reach all parts of S. Korea
Maybe. But we have to take this seriously and we can never assume the enemy will not attack or use his capabilities (either kinetically or politically).
N. Korea shows off nuclear power to reach all parts of S. Korea
Posted September. 17, 2021 07:44,
Updated September. 17, 2021 07:44
N. Korea shows off nuclear power to reach all parts of S. Korea. September. 17, 2021 07:44. by Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com.
North Korea announced on Thursday that the ballistic missiles launched on Wednesday were part of training conducted by the railway mobile missile regiment, which was newly established early this year. The country also released pictures of launching ballistic missiles from a train for the first time. Most ballistic missiles so far had been launched from transporter erector launchers. The Wednesday training seems to be part of the efforts to strengthen North Korea’s nuclear power to target South Korea by unexpectedly firing multiple strategic nuclear missiles to the South, which was ordered by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January this year.
Experts say that the South Korean military needs to urgently come up with more advanced detection and interception systems as the North is now equipped with a railway-borne missile system targeting the South, following submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
“The railway mobile missile regiment participated in training with a mission to move to the central mountainous area in the early morning of Wednesday and fire missiles to hit the target 800 kilometers away,” the Korean Central News Agency reported on Thursday. “The regiment quickly completed the maneuver according to the operation guidelines of railway-borne missile system and the sequence of actions and accurately hit the target 800 kilometers away in the East Sea.
Pak Jong Chon, a member of the Presidium of the Politburo of the Workers' Party of Korea, led the training attended by the military government leadership and the department of munitions industry of the Central Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea and senior officials of the General Staff Department of the Korean People's Army and the national defense science and research sector without Kim Jong Un, according to the Korean Central News Agency. The pictures published by the news agency feature a missile similar to KN-23 rising from the open roof of a train with smoke and flame surrounding the train.
“We do condemn the [North Korean] missile launches,” said Edward Price, a spokesman for the U.S. Department of State. “The missile launches violate multiple resolutions of the U.N. Security Council and pose a threat to neighbors and other members of the international community.” However, Price mentioned that the U.S. is still seeking a diplomatic solution through conversation by adding that the country is seeking to reduce North Korea’s threat through diplomacy.”
“A basic level of respect and manners should be kept, at minimum, under any circumstances, the Ministry of Unification said regarding Deputy Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea Kim Yo Jong’s criticism of South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
“Kim shared her opinions on multiple occasions but this was the first time she mentioned the president by his name,” said an official of the Unification Ministry. “North Korea’s mentioning and direct criticism of the South Korean president does not help peace on the Korean Peninsula nor the development of inter-Korean relationships.” Regarding the intention of Kim’s statement, the ministry said it won’t make a hasty judgment at the moment but will be prepared for any possibility.
12. North Korean weapons advance; negotiations stalled
Stalled? Don't they have to start before they can stall? Of course I am looking at it from the perspective that there have been no negotiations since the Biden Administration took office. From Kim's perspective negotiations have been ongoing for decades and are just currently stalled.
But we have to be careful in assessing the north Korean "wish list." The authors list this out this "wish list." The regime does not want a peace treaty to bring peace and stability to the peninsula. A peace treaty is the stepping stone to removal of US troops, ending the alliance, and ending extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan. And I think it actually wants, and thinks it can get, sanctions relief up front with simply a promise to talk.
Beyond the complexity of the nuclear situation in the region and on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea has other issues. It wants a peace treaty with the United States, the removal of US troops from South Korea, diplomatic recognition and, most immediately, the end of economic sanctions.
The Biden administration has not indicated its position on North Korea’s wish list, nor has it suggested a roadmap. In fact, the administration is known to be hunting for North Korean interlocutors, but so far has come up empty.
The bottom line is that North Korea is waiting and watching. While it would not necessarily turn down a good deal, it would take a comprehensive US proposal even to begin the dialogue. Worse still, the rush of geopolitical events worldwide, and in North and East Asia in particular, would worry any of the potential participants including North Korea, South Korea and Japan.
North Korean weapons advance; negotiations stalled
The Biden administration wants 'discussions' on Pyongyang's nuclear program, but the regional situation is extremely complex
asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen and Junjiro Isomura · September 15, 2021
Negotiating with North Korea is more complicated than meets the eye, even though US President Joe Biden’s administration is anxious to start. It is true that North Korea is not in any hurry to resume discussions with the United States despite the White House pushing for “discussions.” But the truth of the matter is that you don’t undertake “discussions” or “negotiations” without an agenda, which must include a roadmap.
There are many issues that separate North Korea from the US and from others, particularly South Korea. It should always be kept in mind that there is only an armistice agreement between North Korea and China and the United States, in place since 1953.
Nuclear arsenal and delivery systems
For the US the main issue is denuclearization, that is, the elimination of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and the means of making nuclear weapons.
This is quite a complicated matter, since North Korea is already far advanced in building a nuclear weapons arsenal. Moreover, North Korea has the possibility of different weapons’ delivery systems, including advanced ballistic missiles, both land-based and submarine-launched. North Korea also has cruise missiles in its arsenal and has been improving them for accuracy and payload size.
It is not quite clear what types of nuclear weapons are in North Korea’s arsenal. The most basic kinds are fission weapons, which typically have a yield in kilotons. Upscale from fission weapons are boosted fission weapons, designed to increase the size of an atomic blast. And beyond fission and boosted are fusion or hydrogen nuclear weapons, which can deliver megatons in explosive power.
Photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting nuclear warheads show what looks like copies of American fusion weapons, but these may be solely for propaganda purposes. Previous tests of nuclear weapons and blast size suggest North Korea has boosted weapons, although a case can be made for fusion weapons.
The most recent test reportedly had a yield of 140 kilotons, about 10 times that of the Hiroshima uranium fission bomb, but still short of megatonnage range.
North Korea may have as many as 60 nuclear weapons.
At the present time North Korea can legitimately threaten South Korea (where US troops are stationed), Japan (where US Air Force and Navy bases are located), and even the continental US thanks to a number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) entering its arsenal.
Currently neither Japan nor South Korea has nuclear weapons, although it isn’t clear for how much longer that will be the case.
Japan has a mature commercial space-launch program and thus the ability potentially to turn its rockets into armed ballistic missiles. The US Federation of American Scientists compared Japanese commercial space vehicles with US strategic nuclear forces:
As the comparison shows, outside of the larger payload of the MX Peacekeeper, Japanese commercial and US strategic missiles are equivalent.
Japan has nearly unlimited stockpiles of plutonium, so fabricating a nuclear weapon would not take Japanese industry much time. Depending on the course of events in the region, Japan may feel that it cannot longer rely on the United States. Should that happen, Japan could quickly go nuclear, although politics inside Japan could preclude that.
Seoul, however, has safeguarded nuclear reactors and a limited missile capability because the US has opposed long-range weapons in the South Korean arsenal. But the September 7 South Korean submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test has raised significant questions in Pyongyang, could see the start of a nuclear arms race between the two Koreas.
Until now, the nations that have SLBM capability – the US, the UK, France, Russia, China, India (in development), North Korea (in development), possibly Israel – can use them to deliver nuclear weapons. South Korea is building a new class of home-built 3,000-ton submarines such as the Dosan Ahn Chang-ho that can launch either ballistic missiles or cruise missiles.
These advanced diesel-electric submarines are equipped with fuel cells and lithium battery power packs and can stay submerged for 50 days or more. They are exceedingly hard to detect. The South Korean SLBM is reportedly a variant of the Hyun Moo 2B ballistic missile with an extended range.
The accuracy of these missiles (around 30 meters circular error of probability) is not good enough for conventional weapons against high-value targets. However, with a nuclear warhead it is an entirely different story.
Certainly, one of the reasons North Korea quickly launched a “new long-range” cruise missile “over the weekend” of September 11-12 was to answer South Korea’s SLBM launch.
The North Korean action was rushed because, had a choice been available, it would have demonstrated an SLBM, which is currently under development. But not being prepared to do that, the choice went to the “new” long-range cruise missile with a range of 1,500 kilometers.
The test was said to be successful and represented a “strategic weapon of great significance” according to the North Korean government. Unlike previous staged missile launch demonstrations, Kim Jong Un did not attend the launch.
On Wednesday, North Korea launched two missiles of unknown type in the direction of Japan. It isn’t clear what purpose, beyond testing, this latest launch meant.
It is an open question whether, in the future, South Korea will decide to build nuclear weapons. A lot depends on the influence of the United States and whether the pro-unification government remains in power. But from the standpoint of North Korea, its planners must be thinking of the possibility, especially as American influence wanes in the region.
The recent debacle in Afghanistan and China’s growing and aggressive military suggest to South Korea and North Korea, as it suggests to Japan, that Pax America is disappearing into the sunset.
More complications
Beyond the complexity of the nuclear situation in the region and on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea has other issues. It wants a peace treaty with the United States, the removal of US troops from South Korea, diplomatic recognition and, most immediately, the end of economic sanctions.
The Biden administration has not indicated its position on North Korea’s wish list, nor has it suggested a roadmap. In fact, the administration is known to be hunting for North Korean interlocutors, but so far has come up empty.
The bottom line is that North Korea is waiting and watching. While it would not necessarily turn down a good deal, it would take a comprehensive US proposal even to begin the dialogue. Worse still, the rush of geopolitical events worldwide, and in North and East Asia in particular, would worry any of the potential participants including North Korea, South Korea and Japan.
Stephen Bryen has 40 years of leadership in government and industry. He has served as a senior staff director of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as the deputy under secretary of defense for trade security policy, as the founder and first director of the Defense Technology Security Administration, as the president of Delta Tech Inc, as the president of Finmeccanica North America, and as a commissioner of the US China Security Review Commission.
Junjiro Isomura is a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute and a longtime adviser to Japanese leaders.
13. Worries as N.Korea Launches Missiles 'from Train'
Maybe Kim Jong-un really wants to make Hollywood like propaganda films. Maybe he wants to contract out his propaganda and agitation department to support making action films in Hollywood.
But this is a problem. We could make the rail system as poor if not worse than the poor road system. I hope our targeteers are working on the preparations to take down the north's rail network once the north initiates the attack on the South.
North Korea already uses mobile wheeled or tracked launchers, which could be hampered by the poor condition of the North's roads. But the story changes if the North uses its railway network because trains can be hidden inside tunnels and mobilized quickly to fire their deadly payloads.
Camouflaging a missile-laden train to look like a passenger locomotive could make it extremely difficult for U.S. and South Korea to detect it. Experts said the allies may have to overhaul their detection and intercept systems.
Worries as N.Korea Launches Missiles 'from Train'
September 17, 2021 11:19
North Korea ostensibly fired two ballistic missiles from a train into the East Sea on Wednesday.
North Korea has created a railway missile unit that could take advantage of weaknesses in South Korean and U.S. missile detection and intercept systems by moving rapidly around and in and out of tunnels.
A missile is being fired from a train in an undisclosed location in North Korea on Wednesday, in this photo released by the official [North] Korean Central News Agency the following day.
"The railway-borne missile regiment took part in the drill with a mission to strike the target area 800 kilometers away from its location after moving to the central mountainous area at dawn" on Sept. 15, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said Thursday.
The drill aimed to "increase the capability of dealing an intensive multi-concurrent blow at the forces posing threats to us at a time of conducting necessary military operations," it added.
The regiment was only set up this year, and this is the first time the reclusive state officially revealed its existence. It also published a picture of a North Korean version of Russia's Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missile being fired from or from behind a train at the mouth of a tunnel, creating a huge ball of flames.
North Korea already uses mobile wheeled or tracked launchers, which could be hampered by the poor condition of the North's roads. But the story changes if the North uses its railway network because trains can be hidden inside tunnels and mobilized quickly to fire their deadly payloads.
Camouflaging a missile-laden train to look like a passenger locomotive could make it extremely difficult for U.S. and South Korea to detect it. Experts said the allies may have to overhaul their detection and intercept systems.
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
14. Unification minister promises support for humanitarian aid to North Korea despite missile launches
Yes of course. But Kim has so far been unwilling to allow it.
Unification minister promises support for humanitarian aid to North Korea despite missile launches
Unification Minister Lee In-young / YonhapUnification Minister Lee In-young said Friday his office will continue to cooperate with the United States to provide humanitarian aid to North Korea despite tensions over Pyongyang's recent missile launch.
Lee made the remark at an event to mark the 2018 Pyongyang Declaration on Sept. 19, in which President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shared the view that the peninsula must be turned into a region free from nuclear weapons.
"Although many have once again raised concerns over North Korea's recent missiles launch, I believe our determination towards bringing peace has become stronger amid a robust readiness posture," he said.
Lee said his ministry will continue to seek ways to cooperate with the United States to provide humanitarian aid to the North, stressing that such assistance must be "carried out regardless of the political, military and security situation."
"We hope that the two Koreas and the United States will restart dialogue and cooperation based on mutual respect at an early date and to resume practical discussion on denuclearization and establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula," he added.
On Wednesday, Pyongyang held a firing drill of two short-range ballistic missiles in the East Sea apparently from a train just hours before Seoul conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test amid concerns the latest launch could ratchet up tensions on the peninsula. (Yonhap)
15. Koreans in their 20s and 40s show generational divide on key issues
Some interesting an important data. Will the opinions of those in the 20's shift to be like those currently in their 40s when they reach that age?
Wednesday
September 15, 2021
Koreans in their 20s and 40s show generational divide on key issues
Young adults in South Korea were less likely to wish for unification with North Korea, less happy to share vaccines with the North or accept refugees, and less inclined for closer diplomatic relations with China compared to the older generation, according to a recent survey conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo with Embrain Public, a local poll research institute.
A total of 1,011 people in their 20s and 1,007 in their 40s were asked their opinions last month on several issues related to North Korea, refugees, recent labor policies and Korea’s relations with the United States and China.
In all topics related to North Korea — the two Koreas’ unification, vaccine support to the North and the possibility of a tax hike to pitch in to so-called unification funds, or funds to prepare for unification in the future — the people in their 20s responded more negatively than the people in their 40s.
A total of 47.1 percent of those in their 20s replied unification is not necessary for the two Koreas, whereas only 23.8 percent of those in their 40s said so. A total of 73.9 percent of those in their 40s said they think inter-Korean unification is necessary.
As for supplying vaccines to the North, often mentioned by the Moon Jae-in government, those in their 20s also responded more negatively: 58.9 percent of those in their 20s said they are largely unsupportive of the policy, while 31.3 percent of those in their 40s said so.
As for their willingness to pitch into the government’s unification-preparatory funds, 62.1 percent of the people in their 20s said they’re unwilling, while 41.9 percent of those in their 40s responded the same.
Though the survey did not ask for individual respondents' reasons for their opinions, recent postings on a social media platform in response to the Unification Ministry’s announcement last week on building a virtual reality facility for youth to experience tourist sites in North Korea may serve as some examples.
“Why do they assume that the young people of South Korea want to see anything of North Korea through VR programs?” wrote one user in an online community of young students in Korea.
“I wish the government would stop badgering us about unification,” wrote another user.
There was also a strong public backlash among young adults in South Korea during the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics, when the government announced they would merge the North Korean and South Korean women's ice hockey teams, which meant that some South Korean athletes would not be able to play at the Olympics despite having trained for the Games for years.
Such reactions among Korea’s younger adults are not surprising, according to some experts.
“The nationalistic 'one people with North Korea’ view no longer works for the MZ generation [millennials and Generation Z],” said Kang Won-taek, professor of political science at Seoul National University. “Discourse on unification can feel like a luxury for those in their 20s who are being pushed to the brink in their livelihoods, from issues such as high rates of unemployment and skyrocketing real estate prices. On the contrary, those in their 40s witnessed the first inter-Korean summit of 2000, and many of them may agree on the need for the two Koreas to unite.”
People in their 20s and 40s also showed some gaps in their responses to issues on diplomacy and alliances.
When asked about how the Korean government should respond to the deepening U.S.-China rivalry in the region, 90.5 percent of respondents in their 20s said Korea should place a higher importance on working with the United States, while only 4.5 percent of those in their 20s said Korea should place a higher importance on working with China. Among those in their 40s, 74.1 percent chose the United States, and 11.5 percent China.
On the refugee issue, 64.4 percent of the 20s surveyed said they’re largely unwilling to receive refugees into the country, while 37.8 percent of those in their 40s were largely unwilling.
When around 550 Yemenis flew into Jeju Island to seek asylum in Korea in 2018, and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees ambassador and actor Jung Woo-sung called for support for the asylum seekers, there was some backlash from a few young Korean communities.
“For some of these people in their 20s, who are just trying to find a job and a paycheck to sustain their lifestyles, they may feel that they don’t have the luxury to think about accepting a group of refugees into society,” said Lee Byung-hoon, a professor of sociology at Chung-Ang University.
The two generations also showed a divide on labor policies, particularly on the Moon government’s policy to turn all contract workers in the public sector into full-time employees.
A total of 59.2 percent of those in their 20s said the policy was “unfair,” compared to 42.7 percent of those in their 40s.
“The MZ generation, who values skills, judges that the conversion of contracted workers to full-time workers was about allowing a vertical movement in society without any assessment of the person’s professional skills and aptitude," said Lee. “On the other hand, those in their 40s tend to emphasize collectivism and communitarianism and recognize that the decision was justified in order to protect the weaker groups in society.”
BY SOHN GUK-HEE, SUNG JI-WON, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
16. Assault on Free Speech: YouTuber Choi Tae-woon Imprisoned for 2 Years for “Defamation”
Excerpt:
Although the above provides background on the topic, on which the defamation lawsuit is based, the key issue here is freedom of speech. A citizen receiving two years of jail for “defamation” is not only excessive, but it is suppression of freedom of speech and a violation of human rights. This is not the first imprisonment case under the Moon administration. More and more YouTubers on the opposite side of the current administration are being jailed for defamation. This lawfare and suppression of free speech must stop, and Choi should be released from prison immediately.
Assault on Free Speech: YouTuber Choi Tae-woon Imprisoned for 2 Years for “Defamation”
2021-9-16, Tara O
Choi Tae-woon. At bottom, it states “Choi Tae-woon will continue to fight for freedom.”
On August 13, 2021, Choi Tae-woon (최태운) (in his 30s), who ran a YouTube channel Saeng-gak Modeum Jjigae (생각모듬찌개, assorted thoughts stew), was sentenced to 2 years in prison for “defamation and insult” by Chief Judge Jung Seong-gyun (정성균), Uijeongbu District Court Criminal Law Division 13. Choi was immediately taken to prison. The lawsuit was brought on by a couple Park Cho-hee (박초희) and Kim Tae-yang (김태양), who have strong support from the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (Deobureo Minjoo Party).
Judge Jung Seong-gyun
Judge Jung stated that it is a grave crime to use the real names and photos of the couple, Park Cho-hee and Kim Tae-yang. He also stated that Choi Tae-woon saying he will say what is right no matter who feels insulted during the trial is a “further crime” and that he was “not repentant for his crimes.” The judge also pointed out that Choi stated that responsibility goes along with freedom on his video, and stated Choi “may be free to say what he says, but there is an urgent need to make him realize, through incarceration, that there are severe legal consequences.” Choi was imprisoned right away after the sentencing. The maximum sentence for defamation, if it is based on truth, is 2 years; if the defamation is deemed to be based on false information, then the maximum jail sentence is 5 years. Choi filed for an appeal on August 17, 2021.
The judge also made an issue of another topic of Choi’s video, which was about the Sewol Ferry threesome sex scandal, a taboo topic that also brought a defamation law suit to former lawmaker Cha Myong-jin (차명진). See here for the threesome story and here for the Sewol Ferry group’s lawsuit against Cha for mentioning the sex scandal.
Choi also had called the hotline for reporting spies to report President Moon Jae-in as a spy. See here for a transcript of the awkward phone conversation as he got passed around like a hot potato from agency to agency. The Assorted Thoughts Stew channel was deleted in March 2021.
The video in question was the one on May 11, 2020, in which Choi discussed the “Min-sik Law” and its harmful effects. For that, Park Cho-hee and Kim Tae-yang, Kim Min-sik’s parents, sued Choi for defamation. In September 2019, Kim Min-sik died in a car accident in a school zone in front of a middle school in Asan, South Chungcheong Province. The driver was going below the speed limit of 30 km/hour (18 miles/hour), but could not stop or swerve in time, when Min-sik appeared in front of the moving car.
From left, Park Cho-hee and Kim Tae-yang
Shortly after the accident, the public opinion was quickly formed by entertainment documentary, government-supported TV, the National Assembly, and other forums, where Park Cho-hee and Kim Tae-yang appeared to tell their stories about their son. Without proper policy discussions of pros and cons, the ruling Deobureo Minjoo Party (Democratic Party of Korea) rapidly introduced the “Min-sik Law.” It is actually two laws titled “Amendments to the Road Traffic Act” and “Amendments to the Aggravated Punishment Act for Certain Crimes” (도로교통법 개정안과 특정범죄 가중처벌법 개정안), which passed the legislature in December 2019, and went into effect on March 25, 2020.
This law was quickly introduced around the time when the ruling party wanted to push through the Gongsoocheo Act (which creates an investigative body targeting high-ranking officials) and the Amendments to the Election Act dealing with the Interlocked Proportional Representatives System, which the ruling party rammed through without the main opposition United Future Party (UFP), because the opposition party opposed the latter two Acts. See here and here for details on the Gongsoocheo Act and the Election Act. The ruling party accused the opposition party of holding the “Min-sik Law” hostage, when UFP did not vote to pass the Gongsoocheo Act and the Election Act amendments.
Before the revision, if there’s a death in a car accident in a school zone, the punishment was up to 5 years imprisonment or a fine of not more than ₩50,000,000 ($42,750). After the revision, the punishment is a life sentence with a minimum of 3 years if there is death of a child (13 years or younger), and if the child is injured, then 1.5 years to 15 years of imprisonment or a fine between ₩5,000,000 ($4,275) to ₩30,000,000 ($25,650). Such severe punishment led to voices of concern and opposition.
Petitions expressing concerns and opposition to the draconian Min-sik Law
After the passage of the law, people began petitions to change or eliminate the “Min-sik Law.” One public petition stated that the driver drives carefully in school zones, because it is difficult to tell when a child may suddenly come out between the parked cars onto the road. While the driver of course is careful and mindful, the driver is too scared to drive in the school zone with such a draconian law.
Another asks for retracting the Amendments to the Road Traffic Act and Punishment Act, questioning whether the laws really are for the citizens. The petitioner expresses condolences for Kim Min-sik’s death, but noted the emphasis of the laws are on punishment, rather than prevention.
Yet another concern is for emergency vehicles—fire trucks, police cars, and ambulances. If they go faster than 30 km/hour (18 miles/hour) and get into an accident in a school zone while responding to an emergency call, such as a fire at the school, the drivers of these vehicles are punishable as well.
Choi discussed these issues on his video. He also played a recording of his conversation with the driver’s wife. The wife said the driver apologized, but Park and Kim refused to accept it, and that was in the police report. Choi pointed out that Park and Kim went on TV to say that the driver did not apologize, so they contacted the driver first. Choi asked if what Park and Kim said was not true. The woman said the fact of the driver apologizing is in the police report and the prosecutor’s report. She also said Park and Kim went to the police chief’s office and caused a ruckus for not jailing the driver, and said they do that because they know they have the support of the Democratic Party’s lawmakers. Further, the wife said Samsung Insurance offered Park and Kim ₩400,000,000 (~$342,000), but they demanded ₩700,000,000 (~$600,000), which was confirmed to be true. Choi also asked if the 2-years jail sentence that her husband received is finalized. The woman said yes, it is finalized, but Kim went to the police station to demand more years of imprisonment, saying 2 years is not enough.
- Min-sik’s parents appeared on TV and claimed that the accident was due to speeding, but this was found to be a lie. They knew it, yet they used that (the lie) to create a petition to gather public signatures. Can they be punished for that?
- I have a legal question. Can the driver sue Park and Kim for defamation using false information? While Min-sik passed away from a car accident, it was not because he followed the rules in proper street crossing and not because the driver sped, but Min-sik’s parents lied to the public about these things and greatly defamed the driver.
- Ordinary people with common sense will support Assorted Thoughts Stew YouTuber.
- Wow, they sued him for that? Min-sik’s parents’ level
- The driver is also a victim. What is he supposed to do when someone just pops out onto the street?
Although the above provides background on the topic, on which the defamation lawsuit is based, the key issue here is freedom of speech. A citizen receiving two years of jail for “defamation” is not only excessive, but it is suppression of freedom of speech and a violation of human rights. This is not the first imprisonment case under the Moon administration. More and more YouTubers on the opposite side of the current administration are being jailed for defamation. This lawfare and suppression of free speech must stop, and Choi should be released from prison immediately.
17. Int'l Rights Watchdog Urges Moon to Scrap Press Gag Bill
The ROK is coming under increasing criticism.
Int'l Rights Watchdog Urges Moon to Scrap Press Gag Bill
The leading international human rights watchdog has urged President Moon Jae-in and the National Assembly to scrap a planned media reform bill that critics say is a gag on media freedom.
Human Rights Watch said in a letter Thursday that the bill could seriously undermine the freedom of expression and suppress critical reporting.
The ruling Minjoo Party had intended to railroad the bill through last month but put it on hold amid mounting international criticism.
The letter points out that the bill leaves room for abuse as it defines "false or manipulated news" in broad and vague terms that are "incompatible with international standards for restrictions on freedom of expression."
The essential flow of information could be restricted if media organizations censor themselves to avoid writing reports that could result in a spate of lawsuits under the bill, it added.
"Disproportionate sanctions such as heavy fines can have a significant chilling effect on freedom of expression. Punitive damages are only appropriate to compensate for harm to reputation in certain exceptional circumstances," the letter warned. But "the broad language of the amendment does not implicate any concerns that would merit such exceptional treatment."
The letter was sent jointly with Article 19, the Korean Progressive Network Jinbonet, and the Open Net.
18. Satellite images reveal North Korea expanding facility used to produce weapons-grade uranium
The buried lede. We are not going to negotiate with ourselves (so said one of our Korean experts!). The lack of "a detailed agenda" is code for there is no offer to lift sanctions in return for a promise to negotiate which is what Kim is really demanding.
President Biden's administration has made several attempts to reach out to North Korea by email to start discussions with Washington, a senior South Korean official with direct knowledge of the situation told CNN.
North Korea has acknowledged receipt of the emails, the official said, but did not feel compelled to respond due to what is seen as a lack of a detailed agenda or any serious indication the US is willing to move the conversation forward from what was agreed upon at Mr Trump and Mr Kim's first summit Singapore in June 2018.
Satellite images reveal North Korea expanding facility used to produce weapons-grade uranium
8:12am Sep 17, 2021
New satellite images obtained by CNN reveal North Korea is expanding a key facility capable of enriching uranium for nuclear weapons, renovations that likely indicate the country plans to significantly ramp-up production at this once-dormant site in the near future, according to experts who analysed the photos.
Images captured by commercial imaging company Maxar earlier this week show construction is underway at a uranium enrichment plant located within the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility complex -- changes that could allow North Korea to increase production of weapons-grade nuclear material by as much as 25 per cent, Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told CNN.
"The most recent expansion at Yongbyon probably reflects plans to increase production of nuclear materials for weapons production," he added, noting the ongoing construction is consistent with previous efforts to add floorspace at the facility, allowing it to house more centrifuges and thus, enrich more uranium on a yearly basis.
A satellite image taken on September 14, shows construction underway at a North Korean uranium enrichment plant. (Maxar/Middlebury Institute of Int. Studies)
"The new area is approximately 1,000 square metres, enough space to house 1,000 additional centrifuges. The addition of 1,000 new centrifuges would increase the plant's capacity to produce highly enriched uranium by 25 percent," Mr Lewis said.
If North Korea were to upgrade the type of centrifuges currently in use at this plant, it "could increase the capacity of the plant substantially," he told CNN.
US officials are aware of the recent activity at Yongbyon's uranium enrichment plant and acknowledge those developments could signal plans to increase production of weapons-grade uranium, according to two sources familiar with the situation.
The National Security Council, Department of Defence, Office of the Director of National Intelligence and CIA all declined to comment.
In this photo provided by the North Korean government, leader Kim Jong Un walks with children during a celebration of the nation's 73rd anniversary at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on Sept. 9, 2021. (AP)
Signs that North Korea is moving to ramp-up production of this nuclear material are also in line with US intelligence assessments about the country's commitment to its weapons program, the sources said.
Initial analysis also suggests North Korea conducted a missile launch over the weekend, a three US officials told CNN, one day after it claimed to have test fired a long-range cruise missile with range capable of hitting Japan.
Together, the activity has resulted in an exponential increase of tensions in what was already one of the most volatile regions on the planet.
State Department spokesperson Ned Price condemned North Korea's missile launches Wednesday and again called for a diplomatic approach to the issue.
In this framegrab taken from video provided by South Korea Defense Ministry, South Koreas first underwater-launched ballistic missile is test-fired from a 3,000-ton-class submarine at an undisclosed location in South Korea, Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2021. The rival Koreas test-launched ballistic missiles hours apart from each other on Wednesday in a display of military assets that came amid a faltering diplomatic push to strip North Korea of its nuclear program. South Koreas presidential office said (AP)
"We have been very clear about what we want to see happen. We are committed to the principle that dialogue will allow us to pursue our ultimate objective and that's quite simply the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," Mr Price said.
More concerns about activity at once-dormant facility
Evidence that North Korea is expanding the size of its uranium enrichment plant at Yongbyon will also likely exacerbate concerns stemming from a recent International Atomic Energy Agency report, which said that the country appears to have restarted a nuclear reactor in the same complex.
The report said these were the first indications of activity at the reactor since December 2018, calling North Korea's nuclear activities "a cause for serious concern" and the new developments "deeply troubling."
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un purportedly offered to dismantle the Yongbyon complex in exchange for sanctions relief during negotiations with former US President Donald Trump in Hanoi in 2019.
However, those talks collapsed in part because neither side was willing to budge.
Mr Trump's team wanted either ballistic missile or other nuclear sites included in the deal, and Kim refused to accept a trade of Yongbyon for less sanctions relief, Mr Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton, wrote in his memoir.
While the site appeared to remain dormant until recently, US officials have broadly anticipated activity could resume.
Long-range cruise missiles reportedly tested at an undisclosed location in North Korea. (AP)
US intelligence officials have said publicly they expect North Korea will remain a "Weapons of Mass Destruction threat" for the foreseeable future as Kim remains "strongly committed" to the country's nuclear weapons.
Mr Kim, himself, made clear in January that developing lighter, smaller nuclear weapons for tactical uses and pushing forward with production of "super-sized nuclear warheads" are two of North Korea's top priorities.
"Achieving these goals will probably require North Korea to increase the amount of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium available for weapons production," Mr Lewis said.
Intelligence agencies have also assessed that Mr Kim "may take a number of aggressive and potentially destabilising actions to reshape the regional security environment and drive wedges between the United States and its allies—up to and including the resumption of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing," according to the intelligence community's annual threat assessment released earlier this year.
Recent activity at Yongbyon and a spate of missile tests by North Korea appear to validate both predictions -- reviving concerns about the state of the country's nuclear weapons program.
A satellite image taken in March 2021 and provided by Maxar Technologies shows a steam plant, left, and North Korea's main atomic complex, right, in Yongbyon, North Korea. Smoke was observed emanating from the plant's smokestack. (AP)
"The continuation of the DPRK's nuclear program is a clear violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions and is deeply regrettable," the IAEA report said, referring to North Korea by its official acronym, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
A senior administration official told CNN late last month that the US is aware of the new report and "closely coordinating with our allies and partners on developments regarding the DPRK."
The senior official added, "This report underscores the urgent need for dialogue and diplomacy so we can achieve the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. We continue to seek dialogue with the DPRK so we can address this reported activity and the full range of issues related to denuclearization."
Renewed criticism of Biden's North Korea approach
Recent actions by North Korea are also prompting fresh criticism of the Biden administration's policy towards Pyongyang from Republicans in Congress.
"Given the Biden-Harris administration's pitiful track record -- it's no surprise that Kim Jong Un now wants his pay-day from President Biden. That's why he feels emboldened to resume testing missiles and restarted the Yongbyon nuclear reactor," Rep. Mike Rogers, top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement this week.
US President Joe Biden in Washington this week. (9News)
"We need to respond by strengthening alliances in the region, enforcing the sanctions regime, and increasing our investment in missile defence," he added.
Relations between the two long-time adversaries have been frosty since, and both Washington and Pyongyang have been focused on containing the threat of COVID-19 since the pandemic swept the globe in early 2020.
North Korea's borders have been sealed to keep the virus at bay, despite the knock-on effects on trade with China, an economic lifeline for the impoverished country. Kim's regime is now reportedly dealing with a food crisis.
President Biden's administration has made several attempts to reach out to North Korea by email to start discussions with Washington, a senior South Korean official with direct knowledge of the situation told CNN.
Kim Jong-un's dramatic weight loss sparks theories
North Korea has acknowledged receipt of the emails, the official said, but did not feel compelled to respond due to what is seen as a lack of a detailed agenda or any serious indication the US is willing to move the conversation forward from what was agreed upon at Mr Trump and Mr Kim's first summit Singapore in June 2018.
CONTACT US
19. Violators of N. Korea's anti-reactionary thought law face punishment along with their families
Again, Kim is more afraid of the Korean people living in the north than he is of the United States. We ended up understanding that and exploit it.
Violators of N. Korea's anti-reactionary thought law face punishment along with their families - Daily NK
The anti-reactionary thought law's explanatory material makes no mention of exiling the families of the criminals
North Koreans caught importing or distributing foreign media content inside their country face being executed or sent to political prison camps with their families, Daily NK has learned. The country’s authorities are generating an atmosphere of fear by sticking to an outmoded system of “guilt by association.”
In a telephone conversation with Daily NK on Thursday, a source in North Korea said people who have imported recordings, videos, propaganda, printed materials, radios or books from South Korea “that could become illegal means of reactionary agitation” face execution. “Or, they get dragged off with three generations of their family to a political prison camp run by the Ministry of State Security,” he said.
An image showing a portion of the explanatory material for the anti-reactionary thought law. / Image: Daily NK
Materials providing a summary of the anti-reactionary thought law, which were obtained by Daily NK earlier this year, say that bringing in or distributing movies, recordings, videos or books from South Korea is punishable by up to life in a forced labor camp or death, depending on the severity of the crime.
Though the law specifies life in a forced labor camp, violators are apparently being sent to political prison camps.
The law’s explanatory material makes no mention of sending violators to camps with their families.
“People who distribute imported South Korean media content to other people also face execution,” said the source. “Or, they face imprisonment with their families at a political prison camp run by the Ministry of Social Security.”
The Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security operate separate systems of political prison camps. If you are sent to a camp run by the Ministry of State Security, you are likely never getting out. At camps run by the Ministry of Social Security, however, model prisoners at least have the possibility of being released.
North Korean authorities appear to be taking the importation of foreign media more seriously than its distribution inside the country. However, they clearly intend to eliminate people who conduct import and distribution activities as part of broader efforts to stem the spread of information from the outside world.
Moreover, North Korea is severely punishing people who possess or watch material related to South Korea.
View a larger .pdf file of this table here.
“Not all violators of the anti-reactionary thought law are sent to political prison camps,” said the source. “Depending on the severity of their crime, they can receive other punishments.
“People who possess media content from South Korea are regarded as having watched them, regardless of how many days they had them in their possession,” he continued. “The violator himself is sent to life in a labor camp while his family is exiled to a hard-to-live place.”
If someone is caught watching South Korean videos, their punishment depends on the number of videos in their possession and the types of videos, the source further explained, adding: “The violator can get a maximum of life in a labor camp, while family members living with him [or her] get exiled.”
The law’s explanatory material states that people who watch, listen or possess South Korean movies, recordings, videos, books, music, drawings or photos face five to 15 years in a labor camp. Meanwhile, those who watch or encourage others to watch media from “enemy countries” like the United States or Japan can face life in a labor camp or death, depending on the severity of the crime.
However, the law’s explanatory material makes no mention of exiling the families of the criminals. North Korea’s criminal code does not mention the exiling of families, either.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the leadership podium during the Party Foundation Day military parade in Pyongyang on Oct. 10, 2020. / Image: KCNA
According to the source, people with past infractions related to the possession or distribution of foreign media content – and who are caught possessing or watching South Korean videos following the implementation of the law last year – are “unconditionally” sent to political prison camps. This, the source claimed, reflects the North Korean leadership’s efforts to “mercilessly” punish reoffenders.
“Those who aid [in the importation, distribution, or possession of foreign media content] face seven to 10 years of forced labor,” said the source. “People with three past offenses are sent to political prison camps.
“Likewise, watching or distributing videos from enemy countries like the United States or Japan can get you life in a labor camp or 10 years of forced labor,” he continued, adding, “However, reoffenders are just sent to political prison camps.”
The law’s explanatory material calls the United States and Japan “enemy countries” and stipulates a minimum of 10 years of forced labor and a maximum of death for importing or distributing media from those nations.
Meanwhile, North Korea is operating a “unified command on non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior” to crack down on violations of the anti-reactionary thought law. Daily NK understands that the unified command is in the midst of arresting many people.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
20. Korea’s Risky Missile-Measuring Contest Shows Lack of Faith in the U.S.
I cannot accept this line of analysis. We have been pushing the ROK to develop advanced independent warfighting capabilities for decades now, ever since the OPCON transition process began 9and even before).. They did not test the SLBM out of dissatisfaction with the US or as part of a "measuring" contest with the north (though it is useful to demonstrate South Korea's superior military technology and capabilities) . They are developing their program (among many advanced programs) and testing is required to advance it.
Korea’s Risky Missile-Measuring Contest Shows Lack of Faith in the U.S.
Even South Korea’s pro-peace president has lost patience with U.S.-backed talks and started firing missiles.
Updated Sep. 15, 2021 6:09PM ET / Published Sep. 15, 2021 1:16PM ET
AFP Contributor
The perpetual stand-off between North and South Korea reached crisis level Wednesday with South Korea’s liberal President Moon Jae-in calling the South’s brand-new ballistic missile a “deterrent” against the North and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s kid sister jumping in with a strongly worded warning.
The exchange came as both North and South Korea fired off missiles in an escalation of tensions after the U.S. envoy on North Korea met with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts to talk about fresh attempts at often futile dealings with the North.
Indeed, the competing tests showed the failure of a series of U.S. presidents to come to viable terms with North Korea. If nothing else, President Biden appears no more capable than Donald Trump, in three meetings with Kim Jong Un, to get the North to back down on his nukes and missiles. Nor would Biden, going back to his days as vice president under President Obama, be able to report any progress since Obama indulged in “strategic patience” with Kim Jong Il, from whom Kim Jong Un inherited power in 2011.
“North Korea uses U.S.-South Korean military exercises and Seoul’s augmentation of its military forces as justification for its repeated violations of UN resolutions,” said Bruce Klingner, Korean expert at the Heritage Foundation, “but Pyongyang continued augmenting its missile and nuclear forces despite Washington and Seoul canceling and reducing numerous military exercises during the past three years.”
True, “North Korea has so far refrained from the large-scale provocations it historically did in the first year of a new U.S. or South Korean administration,” said Klingner, formerly a CIA analyst, “but it appears only a matter of time before Pyongyang conducts another ICBM launch or nuclear test. Either would severely test U.S. leadership in the region.”
Moon, who has been staking his prestige on achieving harmony with North Korea, departed from his quest for reconciliation long enough to witness a test of the South’s newly developed submarine-launched ballistic missile.
Just as North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has often ordered and witnessed missile tests, so Moon was on hand with his defense minister, Suh Wook, to observe the SLBM being fired from a submarine. In a comment that seemed surprisingly similar to Kim Jong Un praising his own team for their successes, Moon lavished praise on those responsible for “securing defense capabilities.”
Moon pointedly did not say exactly whom the missile would be defending against, but Kim Jong Un’s little sister, Kim Yo Jong, still found his remarks to constitute “slander” against the North in a “foolish” gesture capable of disrupting North-South relations.
By putting up his sister to make critical comments, Kim Jong Un managed—as he has in recent years—to distance himself somewhat from acrimonious debate with Moon. There was no doubt, however, that his sister’s comments were another attempt at drawing Moon away from close defense ties with the U.S.
Yo Jong seemed more concerned about Moon’s comments than she did about the missile test, staged several hours after the North tested a couple of short-range missiles. The North’s latest missile tests, revealed by South Korea’s defense command, came three days after the North tested a new model of a cruise missile.
One analyst saw the North’s test as having multiple aims.
“One purpose is to respond to Seoul’s recent SLBM testing and demonstrate that North Korea does not intend to stand still as the ROK develops this new capability,” Evans Revere, a former senior U.S. diplomat in Seoul. “Another is to show that the DPRK is doing exactly what Kim Jong Un said it would do earlier this year, i.e, further develop its missile and nuclear weapons capabilities.”
Then, said Revere, “a third goal is to increase the sense of threat and urgency felt by the United States, South Korea, and Japan as the three partners consult on how to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. By ramping up the threat, Pyongyang seeks to compel the three to increase the concessions they might be prepared to pay North Korea.”
Finally, he said, “Pyongyang is also laying down a marker with Seoul to get the South to press the United States even harder to ease sanctions and offer rewards and concessions to North Korea. North Korea has learned that there is almost no limit to the insults and threats that South Korea is prepared to tolerate and still be willing to plead with the United States to ease pressure on Pyongyang.”
Moon, having repeatedly during his presidency sought reconciliation by severely limiting joint exercises with U.S. forces, said the test of the new SLBM would “make the people feel more relieved and proud,” according to the South’s defense ministry.
“The recent missile tests by both North and South Korea reflect not only the military competition between the two regimes but also their efforts to increase the deterrence of threats they perceive as coming from Japan and China,” said David Straub, also a former senior U.S. diplomat in Seoul. “In the case of South Korea, the tests are also a response to a loss of confidence in the United States as an ally after two decades of catastrophic American failures militarily (Afghanistan and Iraq), financially (the Great Recession), politically (the election of Trump as president), and socially (the inability of Americans to respond sensibly and effectively to a pandemic).”
Moon’s office put out a statement claiming the SLBM had “a significant meaning for defense capabilities responding to omnidirectional threats”—a turn of phrase intended to show that the missile was not for use solely against North Korea. In fact, said the statement, as reported by South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, the missile “will play a big role in establishing nati0nal self-defense and peace on the Korean peninsula”–again a phrase that could be interpreted to mean the missile could conceivably come in handy in defending both Koreas—and a united Korea.
The attempt at proving that Moon still hoped to restore dialogue with the North was not convincing, however, considering that the North had just fired off short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast. They have a range of about 500 miles, but Japanese defense officials said the missiles, unlike previous North Korean test shots, had not landed in Japan’s “exclusive economic zone.”
Still, the test drew a sharp denunciation from Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as well as from both U.S. and South Korean officials. Coming right after talks among U.S., Japanese, and South Korean envoys, they appeared to be North Korea’s way of warning against trilateral cooperation.
U.S. envoy Sung Kim was clearly just as interested in getting South Korea to coordinate with Japan against the North as he was in encouraging a resumption of dialogue, which abruptly ended after the abortive summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in Hanoi in February 2019.
In the face of often strained relations with Japan, South Korea’s foreign ministry said they could see eye to eye on at least one thing: “the need for management of a stable situation.” NK News in Seoul quoted the ministry as saying they talked about “in-depth cooperation measures to restart the peace process on the Korean peninsula and agreed that dialog and diplomacy are urgent to achieve complete denuclearization.”
The careful South Korean response on talks with Japan and the U.S. showed Seoul’s desire somehow to avoid controversy in the face of comments such as those from Kim Yo Jong. “Kim has restarted his blackmails,” said a former South Korean intelligence official. With only eight months to go in Moon’s presidency, he said, “nothing he does may change.”
21. Tensions rise on Korean Peninsula as both sides test missiles
That is what the north does - raise tensions, make threats, and contact provocation to gain political and economic concessions.
Tensions rise on Korean Peninsula as both sides test missiles
Analysts say Kim Jong Un wants to strengthen leverage over U.S.
North Korea fires a ballistic missile from a train in a central part of the country on Wednesday. © KCNA/Kyodo
GABRIELA BERNAL, Contributing writerSeptember 16, 2021 15:30 JST | North Korea
SEOUL -- Missile tests this week by both North and South Korea have raised tensions on the peninsula, as Pyongyang looks to strengthen its leverage over Washington, and Seoul continues to bolster its defensive prowess.
North Korea's claim it fired a long-range cruise missile at the weekend was followed on Wednesday with the launch of two ballistic missiles that Japan said landed in its exclusive economic zone. Also Wednesday, South Korea conducted its first-ever official test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
North Korea's Rodong Sinmun newspaper said the cruise missile was a "strategic weapon of great significance," implying it could carry a nuclear warhead. The official Korean Central News Agency on Thursday said the previous day's ballistic missiles were launched from a "railway-borne missile system" -- a new firing method.
Earlier on Wednesday, KCNA criticized Japan's newly unveiled 2022 defense budget, calling the country a "war criminal state" with intentions to pursue a "dangerous arms buildup to realize the wild ambition for reinvasion by turning the [Self-Defense Forces] into an offensive force that has discarded the cloak of 'exclusive defense'."
Yoichiro Sato, a professor at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University in Japan, said Pyongyang is trying to show off its increased capacity to break through Japan's missile defense system.
"The recent two tests appear to aim at demonstrating improved North Korean ability to attack targets in Japan," he said. "The U.S. and Japan need to stick together to improve missile defense and not give in to North Korean attention-seeking."
The tests also came amid several high-level diplomatic meetings this week. Senior diplomats from South Korea, Japan and the U.S. met in Tokyo on Tuesday to discuss North Korea, while China's foreign minister held talks with his South Korean counterpart in Seoul on Wednesday.
Jung Kim, assistant professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the timing of the tests was no coincidence. "Pyongyang works hard to grab the attention of those countries without crossing the line," he said.
Similarly, Soo Kim, a policy analyst at RAND Corporation, said Pyongyang's recent missile tests are "probably intended to underscore the relevance of the North Korean threat and to press the urgency button."
"Whether Kim Jong Un is aiming for nuclear negotiations now or later, these tests will help him secure and strengthen his leverage over the U.S. and South Korea," she said.
With months of no progress on the Korea issue, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden to ignore Pyongyang, and Kim Jong Un has been underscoring that through these recent provocations.
Jeffrey Robertson, an associate professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, said North Korea is putting pressure on the U.S. to take action. "Regardless of how Biden deals with North Korea, neglect was never going to be an ideal long-term policy approach," he said. "Neglecting North Korea is like turning your back on the ocean."
But Jung Kim said any major policy shift by the Biden administration in the near future is unlikely as Washington is focused on Afghanistan, the COVID-19 pandemic and other domestic issues.
"President Biden is simply too busy to consider the ballistic missile tests seriously right now," he said. "It is unlikely for Washington to alter its North Korea policy by offering more concessions in order to bring Kim Jong Un back to the negotiation table."
South Korea's first underwater-launched ballistic missile is test-fired from a 3,000-ton-class submarine at an undisclosed location in the waters off South Korea on Wednesday. © South Korea Defense Ministry/AP
South Korea's confirmation of its own missile launch just hours after North Korea's test also further complicates diplomatic efforts on the peninsula. Some experts fear the SLBM test may accelerate the regional arms race.
South Korea has grown its military industry quickly in recent years, rising from the 31st-ranked arms exporting country in 2000 to sixth in 2020, according to the SIPRI arms transfer database.
Although Seoul is hailing the successful launch as a great accomplishment, its consequences for inter-Korean rapprochement will likely be much less positive. The North was quick to respond to the test. Kim Yo Jong, sister of Kim Jong Un, criticized Seoul for having an "illogical, antiquated and foolish attitude" and warned of the "complete destruction" of inter-Korean relations.
But Seoul disagrees. "The possession of an SLBM has a significant meaning for the purpose of securing deterrence capabilities responding to omnidirectional threats and will play a big role in the establishment of national self-defense and peace on the Korean Peninsula in the future," South Korea's presidential office said in a statement.
Although the events that unfolded on Wednesday are unlikely to help inter-Korean relations, Pyongyang's main goal remains the restart of productive engagement with Washington.
Sato said that "desperation due to the COVID-19 pandemic" is one of the key reasons Pyongyang has resumed rapid missile testing.
The economic woes caused by the government's pandemic-prevention policies also provide the U.S. with a unique opportunity to engage North Korea.
"We are prepared to work cooperatively with the DPRK to address areas of humanitarian concerns regardless of progress on denuclearization," Sung Kim, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, told reporters on Tuesday.
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David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
