Quotes of the Day:
"You will never win if you never begin."
- Helen Rowland
"Nothing of real importance changes: modern history is not modern."
- Colin Gray
"The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived, and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. Too often, we hold fast to the cliches of our forebears. We subject all facts to a prefabricated set of interpretations. We enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."
- John F. Kennedy
1. CIA ran previously undisclosed office in Seoul until last year: sources
2. No one except for Moon rushing for talks with North Korea
3. S. Korea, U.S. discussing Washington's nuke policy review on 'various occasions': Seoul official
4. N. Korea accuses S. Korean entertainment industry of helping Netflix
5. North Korea tells people to eat black swans amid crippling food crisis
6. Vatican working for papal visit to N. Korea: archbishop
7. Prepare for South Korea and US to expand military alliance, China warned
8. America Needs to Stop Demanding North Korea Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons
9. Pope Francis wants to visit North Korea to create ‘momentum for peace’
10. North Korea’s Missile Tests: Addressing Vs Normalizing – Analysis
11. South Korea to develop its own naval interception system as it grows advanced military capabilities
12. Kim Jong Un loses 20 kgs, not using body double, clarifies spy agency
13. Academics involved in North Korea studies are hacked
14. Unification minister meets with WFP chief, senior Vatican official in Rome
15. S. Korea to bid farewell to late former President Roh
16. North says no more sanctions in return for end-of-war talks
17. N. Korea accuses U.S. of acquiescing in nuclear proliferation with 'double standards'
18. U.S. to offer $12 mln in grants to prevent proliferation of N. Korean WMD
19. [Peace & Prosperity] N. Korea’s SLBM test amid discussion for the end-of-war declaration
1. CIA ran previously undisclosed office in Seoul until last year: sources
Nothing nefarious here. But it will bring out the critics and probably some conspiracy theorists. The office collected open source information and translated it for the intelligence community. The real question is whether our open sources collection is effective? Should we have in country offices or can we gather all open source information from the internet. I am sure the offices that were closed around the world were a legacy of the Foriegn Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) which many of us used to depend on for understanding local politics, culture, economics, etc). Later it was rebranded as the Open Source Center. But these local offices gathered local news, books, and infopen source publication information. Is that same information now available on the internet and can be gathered remotely? Do we have the best translators in the DC area or would we have access to better translation capabilities in the country? I am sure decisions are based on fiscal concerns and efficiency and not necessarily on effectiveness. Are we missing key information from local areas that is not on the internet? Ws closing these offices around the world the best decision for gathering information to support policy making? We should really reexamine our open source collection operations.
CIA ran previously undisclosed office in Seoul until last year: sources | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Oct. 31 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency ran a previously undisclosed office in Seoul until last year, legal sources said Sunday.
The existence of the office, which was used to collect open-source intelligence on South Korea as part of the CIA's Open Source Enterprise, became known after three former employees sued the U.S. government for firing them, according to the sources.
The plaintiffs, all South Koreans, were hired between 2005 and 2009 and laid off around February and March of last year.
They claimed in their lawsuit that their dismissal was unfair because there were no urgent business grounds for it.
The Seoul Central District Court dismissed the case, however, saying that the decision was a sovereign action by the United States and fell outside the jurisdiction of South Korea's courts, according to the sources.
The CIA reportedly closed all of its overseas open-source intelligence offices in June last year.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. No one except for Moon rushing for talks with North Korea
The priority for President Moon is ensuring his legacy as the peace president. Unfortunately his desperate focus on this is interpreted as a vulnerability and weakness that can be exploited by Kim Jong-un.
No one except for Moon rushing for talks with North Korea
President Moon Jae-in presents Pope Francis with a cross made out of barbwire from the Demilitarized Zone separating South and North Korea, during their meeting in Vatican City, Friday (local time). Courtesy of the Vatican
Washington, Pyongyang may wait to see next Seoul administration's move
By Nam Hyun-woo
President Moon Jae-in is making a pitch for his Korean Peninsula peace initiative during his meetings with the pope and global leaders, but he is facing a limit in drawing desirable responses, as those leaders and countries are not as urgent as Moon, whose presidency will end in May next year, in tackling North Korea issues.
Moon met Pope Francis on Friday and asked him to visit North Korea to facilitate a peace mood in inter-Korean relations. The pope showed a positive response to the offer, saying he is willing to go if he receives an invitation from the North.
"Moon told the pope that his visit to North Korea will become a momentum for peace on the Korean Peninsula and Koreans are pinning high hopes on that," presidential spokeswoman Park Kyung-mee said. "The pope responded that if he receives an invitation from the North, he will visit to help Koreans and for peace."
Despite the amicable rhetoric, Cheong Wa Dae did not elaborate whether Moon and the pope exchanged further details such as pre-communication between Seoul and Pyongyang on the potential papal visit or the North's intention to invite the worldwide leader of the Catholic Church.
Due to this, critics said last week's meeting had no tangible progress from September 2018, when Moon suggested the papal visit to the North and its leader Kim Jong-un showed a positive response. In the following month during his first meeting with the pope, Moon talked about the issue and the pope made the same response at the time ― he would go if Kim invites him. However, the North has yet to send any invitation to the Vatican.
The Vatican issued a press release on Moon's meeting with the pope mentioning the two shared hopes for peace on the Korean Peninsula, but it made no mention of the offer for the papal visit to Pyongyang, which was contradicting to Cheong Wa Dae's promotion on the pope's intention to visit the North. When asked about any tangible progress since 2018, a Cheong Wa Dae official said, "It was meaningful to reaffirm the pope's intention to visit North Korea."
Since the Vatican's diplomatic protocol requires a country's invitation for a papal trip, Pope Francis' visit to North Korea largely hinges on Kim's decision. However, the current inter-Korean relations are trapped in a stalemate, with the North firing new missiles despite Moon's proposal to officially end the Korean War.
Against this backdrop, time is running out for Moon. South Korea will enter election mode early next year and hold a presidential election in March, thus both the U.S. and North Korea are taking time to address Moon's proposal, apparently considering the possibility of South Korea's shift in North Korea policy with the changing of administrations.
President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with U.S. President Joe Biden during their encounter on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Rome, Saturday (local time). Yonhap
The situation was similar with Moon's brief meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday. On the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Rome, Moon explained his conversation with Pope Francis.
According to Park, Biden welcomed the exchange between Moon and the pope as good news and praised Moon for making progress in bringing peace on the Korean Peninsula.
While Park introduced the conversation to Korean news outlets, the U.S., however, did not release a press statement or other type of media notice.
This came amid reports that Seoul and Washington may have "different perspectives" on Moon's proposal for an end-of-war declaration. While South Korea's presidential office is striving to drum up Moon's proposal, opposition opinions are also growing in the U.S., citing the North's continued violation of U.N. resolutions with its missile program.
Last week, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that the allies "may have somewhat different perspectives on the precise sequence or timing or conditions for different steps" regarding the resumption of talks with Pyongyang.
"The fundamental problem is that Moon's presidency will end soon. While the Moon government is in a rush to make tangible progress within Moon's presidency, other parties, including the U.S., are not," said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy. "As Korea and the U.S. are engaging the North Korea issue at different speeds, there are differences between the two countries. This is why Moon and Biden are not having a summit or official meeting."
3. S. Korea, U.S. discussing Washington's nuke policy review on 'various occasions': Seoul official
Excerpts:
The report came as conservatives here have called for strengthening the credibility of the U.S.' nuclear umbrella for South Korea at a time when North Korea has been doubling down on its nuclear and missile programs.
"We have been discussing it with the United States on various occasions," a foreign ministry official said on condition of anonymity. "The U.S. side has been sharing with us information related to its ongoing nuclear policy review."
S. Korea, U.S. discussing Washington's nuke policy review on 'various occasions': Seoul official | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Oct. 31 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States have been discussing the latter's nuclear policy review on "various occasions," a Seoul official said Sunday, amid reports that Washington is mulling a policy shift feared to weaken military deterrence.
The Financial Times reported Saturday that U.S. allies have been lobbying President Joe Biden not to alter America's policy on the use of nuclear weapons, amid speculation he is considering a "no-first-use" approach that critics say could embolden China and Russia.
The report came as conservatives here have called for strengthening the credibility of the U.S.' nuclear umbrella for South Korea at a time when North Korea has been doubling down on its nuclear and missile programs.
"We have been discussing it with the United States on various occasions," a foreign ministry official said on condition of anonymity. "The U.S. side has been sharing with us information related to its ongoing nuclear policy review."
The official added that the combined defense posture of South Korea and the U.S. and the U.S.' commitment to the provision of extended deterrence remain "solid."
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S.' stated commitment to defending South Korea by mobilizing a full range of its military capabilities, nuclear and conventional, against North Korea's aggression.
The credibility of such extended deterrence has been called into question amid concerns that the North's push to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles and other military capabilities could keep American forces at bay in a contingency on the Korean Peninsula.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. N. Korea accuses S. Korean entertainment industry of helping Netflix
You have to love north Korean propaganda and its ignorance of business, free market economies, streaming services, and capitalism in general.
N. Korea accuses S. Korean entertainment industry of helping Netflix | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Oct. 31 (Yonhap) -- North Korea accused the South Korean entertainment industry on Sunday of working in favor of U.S. companies, such as Netflix, through "unfair" deals.
The North's propaganda outlet, Meari, said South Korean entertainment firms have turned to Netflix to improve their margins amid a business slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
It did not mention the South Korean-made hit Netflix series "Squid Game," but the article follows recent controversy in South Korea over the way the U.S. streaming giant makes deals.
"Numerous South Korean works, including films and TV series, are being shown on Netflix and earning billions of dollars, but the South Korean film production companies only receive about 10 percent of their production cost," Meari said, describing the arrangement as an "unfair contract."
"They are only filling the stomachs of American companies," it said.
The outlet also claimed that a growing number of South Koreans are upset that their cultural works are being reduced to money-making machines for U.S. firms.
Critics say that Netflix deals are designed so that the company pays for a work's production, overseas marketing and dubbing, but offers no incentives to producers in the event that the work becomes a hit.
North Korean propaganda outlets have recently reported on "Squid Game" in a negative light, focusing on the violence and capitalist society depicted in the series.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. North Korea tells people to eat black swans amid crippling food crisis
So if you eat all the black swans will that prevent a future black swan event? (A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp). Or will eating them bring too much bad luck that will come in the form of a black swan event?
On a little more serious note, what is the caloric value of black swans? Does it take more energy to capture, prepare, and cook a black swan that it will provide to those who eat it?
North Korea tells people to eat black swans amid crippling food crisis
The country has been pushing ornamental birds as a protein-rich substitute while opening breeding plants, according to the report.
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“Black swan meat is delicious and has medicinal value,” said the Hermit Kingdom’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun, to push bird meat, which is rarely eaten across the world.
Research into breeding these ornamental birds began in early 2019. Researchers sponsored by the state went so far as to say that the meat had “anticancer” properties, Korean news outlet NK News said.
The news media also previously called black swan meat “an exceptional health food for the 21st century with a unique taste and extremely high nutritional value.”
A black swan swims in a lake inside the Retiro Park in Madrid, Spain, Augst 9, 2019. REUTERS/Sergio Perez
Seen as a bad omen in China, eating swans is frowned upon or considered taboo in many parts of the world, according to the New York Post.
The same month, he said the food situation was “getting tense.”
He has now ordered that every grain of rice be secured and that all farming efforts be ramped up, the New York Post reported, citing a South Korean spy agency.
Earlier this month, UN human rights expert Tomas Ojea Quintana published a report which stated that North Korea’s most vulnerable were “at risk of starvation” with the economy worsening due to a self-imposed COVID-19 shutdown and that sanctions imposed over the country’s nuclear programs should be eased to alleviate the crisis.
The impoverished nation has been behind a rigid blockade since early last year to protect itself from the pandemic, with the economy suffering and trade with key partner China dwindling to a trickle.
Ordinary North Koreans are “struggling on a daily basis... to live a life of dignity,” and the worsening humanitarian situation could “turn into a crisis,” Tomas Ojea Quintana, UN special rapporteur on human rights, said in his latest report published in mid-October.
“The most vulnerable children and elderly are at risk of starvation,” he added, according to AFP.
Read more:
6. Vatican working for papal visit to N. Korea: archbishop
But will Kim extend an invitation?
But more importantly if he does extend one, will it be because he believes he can exploit it? Or do we accept the assumption that such a visit will have a positive effect on Kim's decision making and that it will jump start engagement and negotiations? (I think that is an erroneous assumption).
I think this event will be a good one to track with the oddsmakers in Vegas. What are the odds it will happen?
Vatican working for papal visit to N. Korea: archbishop | Yonhap News Agency
By Kim Deok-hyun
ROME, Oct. 31 (Yonhap) -- The Vatican is working on a possible visit by Pope Francis to North Korea, an archbishop has said, after South Korean President Moon Jae-in asked the pope to visit the North to bring peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Moon, who held a meeting with Francis at the Vatican on Friday, asked the pope to pay a visit to Pyongyang. Francis said he would gladly visit the North for the sake of helping Koreans and the cause of peace if he received an invitation from Pyongyang.
"It is a fact that the Holy See is making efforts to build circumstances throughout various ways for the pontiff to go to North Korea," archbishop Lazzaro You Heung-sik told reporters accompanying Moon on his trip to Italy on Saturday.
Vatican officials have met North Korean officials at the North's embassy in Rome, said Yoo, who commenced his service as Prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy at the Vatican in August.
Regardless of a potential papal visit to North Korea, the Vatican is ready to provide humanitarian assistance to the North, Yoo said.
"Besides North Korea, the Holy See is making efforts to provide any support for vulnerable nations," Yoo said.
The pope has called for peace on the peninsula and previously expressed a willingness to visit North Korea.
During a meeting with the pope in 2018, Moon delivered a verbal invitation from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the pope said at the time he was willing to visit the North if Pyongyang sends him an official invitation.
No further progress, however, has been made amid a deadlock in talks between the North and the United States.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
7. Prepare for South Korea and US to expand military alliance, China warned
A lot to parse here.
I wonder how China would react if there were combined exercises between the ROK and the ROC?
But I have to challenge the dangerous propaganda in this as it feeds South Korean paranoia and the affront to sovereignty.
Excerpts:
One of the worst case scenarios for China would see South Korea – which now hosts more than 26,000 US troops, one of America’s biggest overseas deployments – teaming up with the US in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.
The US would have wartime operational command over the South Korean military, according to the terms of their defensive alliance, but the two sides are in talks to transfer authority to Seoul next year.
“Although it would be difficult to pick sides between China and the US, South Korea would have to if there is a war and under the alliance, its military has to submit to the authority of the US,” Song said.
There is nothing in the strategic documents regarding ROK forces fighting under the control of the US outside the Korean theater of operations. The only reference to off peninsula operations can be an interpretation from the Mutual Defense Treaty. But there is nothing about command and control of forces and the important point is both countries will act in accordance with their constitutional processes.
ARTICLE II
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of either of them, the political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack. Separately and jointly, by self help and mutual aid, the Parties will maintain and develop appropriate means to deter armed attack and will take suitable measures in consultation and agreement to implement this Treaty and to further its purposes.
ARTICLE III
Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties in territories now under their respective administrative control, or hereafter recognized by one of the Parties as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the other, would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.
But it is this kind of propaganda in the South China Morning Post that supports both the PRC and north Korea and can influence the Koreans in the South against the alliance by perpetuating myths many already believe. This is why the alliance needs a strong and powerful information campaign to inform and educate the people in both Korea and the US, particularly in conjunction with the OPCON transition process. This process provides the perfect opportunity to try to bust some of the myths, conspiracy theories, and uniformed views of the alliance.
Prepare for South Korea and US to expand military alliance, China warned
The US has been trying to use its allies to help contain China and a recent foreign policy paper says these efforts may include Seoul
Beijing’s worst-case scenario would see the South joining Japan and the US in opposing an attack on Taiwan, but it is not clear if it is willing to do so
By Laura Zhou South China Morning Post4 min
Under the current terms of their alliance, South Korean troops are under US command in the event of conflict. Photo: Bloomberg
Beijing should be prepared in case South Korea and the United States seek to develop their military alliance further, a recent Chinese foreign policy analysis has warned.
The assessment, made by two scholars with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), one of the country’s largest and most influential foreign policy research institutes, came as Washington is renewing its focus on its alliances as part of its efforts to contain China.
Since US President Joe Biden took office in January, the White House has pushed for broader cooperation with South Korea on multiple fronts, including manufacturing, 5G, semiconductors and supply chains, Sun Ru, the deputy director of the CICIR Institute of World Political Studies and Wang Fudong, an associate fellow, wrote in the report published last week.
One of the worst case scenarios for China would see South Korea – which now hosts more than 26,000 US troops, one of America’s biggest overseas deployments – teaming up with the US in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.
The US would have wartime operational command over the South Korean military, according to the terms of their defensive alliance, but the two sides are in talks to transfer authority to Seoul next year.
However, as its rivalry with China continues to deepen, the US has also raised the issue of expanding their military alliance.
In 2019, following reports that the US wanted to expand their joint crisis management manual to cover US requests for military support in places like the Middle East, South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, Yonhap News Agency reported that one source said South Korea opposed the move, but “all options and scenarios could be on the table” over time.
At his Senate confirmation hearing in May, General Paul LaCamera, the commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), expressed support for the force being included in contingency plans for the Indo-Pacific, saying: “USFK forces are uniquely positioned to provide the US Indo-Pacific Command commander a range of capabilities that create options for supporting out-of-area contingencies and responses to regional threats.”
02:20
South Korea’s first homegrown spacecraft Nuri blasts off
In May, the US and South Korea agreed to lift decades-old restrictions on the range of the missiles Seoul possesses, allowing it to hit targets far beyond the Korean peninsula. Four months later, South Korea confirmed that it had launched a ballistic missile from a submarine, making it the first non-nuclear power with such capabilities.
“By lifting restrictions on missile development … [and] allowing South Korea to develop medium- and long-range missiles, the Biden administration has both brought South Korea into the fold and used the alliance to contain China,” the report warned.
South Korea said at that time that its missile capabilities were a clear deterrent to the North, but Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor and military affairs commentator, said it could pose a threat to China as well.
“Although it would be difficult to pick sides between China and the US, South Korea would have to if there is a war and under the alliance, its military has to submit to the authority of the US,” Song said.
“Even though South Korea may not want to interfere in China’s internal affairs, it may be pressured to do so by the US.”
The CICIR report warned that South Korea might follow the example of Japan which, according to the Financial Times, has been making contingency plans for a conflict over Taiwan since 2019.
“As the situation in the Taiwan Strait continues to be tense, the US is speculating about the reunification of mainland China by force and in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it will be difficult for South Korea to reject the US by mobilising its troops,” it said.
In May, after Biden and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in met in Washington, Moon denied that he had come under pressure to take a tougher stance on Taiwan and said the“two sides agreed how important that region is, especially considering the special characteristics between China and Taiwan”.
“China should send a clear signal to the US and South Korea in a timely manner and take the necessary measures to fight and raise the cost of their China-related cooperation,” the report said.
Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor with Renmin University in Beijing, said South Korea, under Moon’s policy of strategic neutrality, was unlikely to swing to the US and upset China, its major trading partner and a key player on the Korean peninsula.
But Moon will step down next May at the end of his term and his successor may shift the country’s strategic direction.
“The US has pinned its hopes on the next government but even if the [pro-US] conservative party wins, South Korea may not stand with the US in confronting China because of its strong economic ties with China,” Cheng said.
Laura Zhou joined the Post's Beijing bureau in 2010. She covers China's diplomatic relations and has reported on topics such as Sino-US relations, China-India disputes, and reactions to the North Korea nuclear crisis, as well as other general news.
8. America Needs to Stop Demanding North Korea Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons
Yes, let's just appease north Korea and give it everything it wants.
However, despite my snarky criticism I strongly agree with the author's first sentence in this conclusion. I think we just disagree on how to achieve the objective.
America’s overriding primary objective on the Korean peninsula is to avoid unnecessary war and preserve economic opportunity for our country. A maximalist policy that demands Pyongyang denuclearize before the U.S. offers anything in return offers little maneuvering room for meaningful diplomacy. The U.S. already has the military power to deter Pyongyang indefinitely. The Administration should therefore do whatever it takes, in a diplomatic step-by-step process, to lower the tensions and increase the chances for peace.
America Needs to Stop Demanding North Korea Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons
Amid calls for increasing dialogue with Pyongyang from both Washington and Seoul, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues ratcheting up the pressure with missile tests. Diplomatic opportunities to deescalate the situation on the peninsula should be pursued. Yet regardless of whether talks produce a breakthrough or not, the situation relative to U.S. national security will remain the same: America is safe and North Korea is deterred.
On Sunday, U.S. envoy to North Korea, Sung Kim, called on Pyongyang to stop “provocations and other destabilizing activities,” and “engage in dialogue.” On Monday, South Korean President Moon Jae In said he would redouble his efforts to establish a “new order for peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula…through dialogue and diplomacy.” Up to this point, the North Korean leadership has been cool to the overtures. It’s not hard to figure out why.
While U.S. envoy Kim called for dialogue on Sunday, he also reiterated one of Washington’s long-standing objectives that has obstructed any movement towards a diplomatic breakthrough. “Our goal,” the U.S. envoy declared, “remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” What remains to be explained, however, is how the Biden Administration interprets that statement.
The Obama Administration and eventually the Trump Administration defined the “full and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” as meaning North Korea had to first give up its nuclear weapons and program before the U.S. would grant any sanctions relief – a complete non-starter for Pyongyang.
The North Koreans are assessed to have at least 60 deliverable nuclear warheads. Kim Jong Un regards his nuclear arsenal as being the best guarantee against a U.S. military attack against his country and regime. It would be irrational, therefore, to expect the North Korean leader to willingly hand over his only strategic deterrent in exchange for mere promises from Washington. It’s not going to happen.
The good news is U.S. national security is assured regardless of what does or doesn’t happen diplomatically on the peninsula. The nuclear genie, so to speak, is out of the bottle, and we can never put it back: Kim has a credible nuclear option that effectively deters the U.S. from launching any wars of choice or so-called “preemptive” wars.
In an even stronger way, however, the United States – with its 4,571 to 60 advantage in nuclear weapons – can deter Kim Jong Un indefinitely from ever using his nuclear arsenal in a war of choice against us. Yet there are plenty of actions Washington can take to reduce even the chances for accidents or miscalculations that could inadvertently lead to military clashes between the U.S. and North Korea.
On Monday, South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy Noh Kyu-duk tried to breathe new life into the idea of declaring a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War. Such an action – which is distinct from a peace treaty – could have the effect of serving “as a gateway for talks on achieving complete denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula,” Noh explained, “and the establishment of a permanent peace.”
If the Biden Administration follows the failed playbook of virtually every other Administration since the early 1990s and holds out for a complete denuclearization by North Korea as a prerequisite for progress, Biden will come up short as all those before him did.
But if he instead places denuclearization as an eventual aspiration – as, pointedly, both Moon and Kim Jong Un have done – featuring instead a step-by-step approach in which we make a number of progressively small steps matched by Pyongyang making steps of their own, the chances of even accidental war will continue to diminish and the prospects for peace rise.
For example, the United States can offer limited (and reversible) sanctions-relief for major steps by North Korea, such as nuclear freezes, the dismantling of major nuclear production facilities, and other meaningful concessions. But it is important to acknowledge that in order to get a major concession from North Korea, we have to be mentally prepared to give them something of value as well; no party will ever negotiate away something important for nothing in return.
Image: KCNA/DPRK State Media.
America’s overriding primary objective on the Korean peninsula is to avoid unnecessary war and preserve economic opportunity for our country. A maximalist policy that demands Pyongyang denuclearize before the U.S. offers anything in return offers little maneuvering room for meaningful diplomacy. The U.S. already has the military power to deter Pyongyang indefinitely. The Administration should therefore do whatever it takes, in a diplomatic step-by-step process, to lower the tensions and increase the chances for peace.
Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1
9. Pope Francis wants to visit North Korea to create ‘momentum for peace’
Is this what the Pope really thinks or is this an interpretation of what people think he thinks? I think the headline does not match the substance of the article. I do wonder if the nearly 90 minute POTUS-Pope visit if they discussed north Korea.
Excerpts:
The Vatican, which didn’t allow independent media in the audience, said the talks touched on the role of the Catholic Church in promoting dialogue and said “hopes were shared that joint effort and good will may favor peace and development in the Korean Peninsula, supported by solidarity and by fraternity.”
South Korean President Moon Jae-in told Pope Francis Friday that a papal visit to North Korea would help create “momentum for peace” on the peninsula, officials said.
Pope Francis wants to visit North Korea to create ‘momentum for peace’
VATICAN CITY (AP) — South Korean President Moon Jae-in gave Pope Francis a statue of a cross made with barbed wire from the demilitarized zone separating the Koreas and told him Friday that a papal visit to the North would help create “momentum for peace” on the peninsula, officials said.
Moon, a Catholic, called on Francis before the start of the Group of 20 summit in Rome.
The Vatican, which didn’t allow independent media in the audience, said the talks touched on the role of the Catholic Church in promoting dialogue and said “hopes were shared that joint effort and good will may favor peace and development in the Korean Peninsula, supported by solidarity and by fraternity.”
South Korean President Moon Jae-in told Pope Francis Friday that a papal visit to North Korea would help create “momentum for peace” on the peninsula, officials said.
Ahead of the visit, South Korean presidential officials said they expected Moon and Francis would discuss a possible papal visit to the officially atheist North, since Francis had previously expressed a desire to visit if it becomes possible. The Vatican made no mention of a possible trip in its statement Friday and none is currently believed to be under consideration.
Moon first floated the idea of a papal visit to the North in 2018 when he revealed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had said during a summit between the Korean leaders that the pope would be “enthusiastically” welcomed.
Kim then was actively engaging in diplomacy with Seoul and the Trump administration in an effort to leverage his nuclear programs for an easing of U.S.-led economic sanctions. But the diplomacy derailed and the North also cut off cooperation with South Korea while expressing frustration over the Moon government’s inability to wrest concessions on its behalf from Washington.
Park said Francis told Moon that he would “gladly visit” the North if he receives an official invitation, so that he could help the Korean people and contribute to peace.
Moon told the pope on Friday that if he does get an opportunity to visit North Korea, it would “create a momentum for peace in the Korean Peninsula” and that “South Koreans have huge expectations (for a papal visit to the North),” said Moon spokesman Park Kyung-mee.
Park said Francis told Moon that he would “gladly visit” the North if he receives an official invitation, so that he could help the Korean people and contribute to peace. He described the people of the two Koreas as “brothers who share the same language.”
During the exchange of gifts, Francis gave Moon a medallion replicating Bernini’s original plan for St. Peter’s Square. The design envisages the two main colonnades of the Vatican piazza embracing humanity in the church. He also gave him copies of some of his main texts, including one outlining his vision for greater human fraternity.
Moon’s statue of a cross was made with barbed wire from the DMZ. An accompanying note, written in Spanish, said his hope was that the spikes and iron used to make the barbed wire could be used instead as a symbol of peace.
“I pray devotedly that this cross sprouts deep roots and that peace may flourish,” the note said.
Tong-Hyung Kim reported from Seoul, South Korea.
10. North Korea’s Missile Tests: Addressing Vs Normalizing – Analysis
Missile and rocket tests have been "normalized" since June of 2018. Trump and Moon set a red line of nuclear and ICBM testing. Anything below that is part of the very large gray zone that provides Kim Jong-un a lot of flexibility to use increased tension, threats, and provocations for blackmail diplomacy.to gain economic and political concessions. More than 30 test launches have been conducted since the field Hanoi summit.
I will reprise my 6 recommendations on how to respond:
We should keep in mind that the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy relies heavily on its blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tension, threats and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. Part of our information and influence strategy should be to counter the criticism that a north Korean provocation is a US and South Korean policy failure. We should make sure the press, pundits, and public understand that this is a fundamental part of north Korean strategy and it conducts provocations for specific objectives. It does not represent a policy failure on our part. I would offer the following framework for consideration:
First, do not overreact. But do not succumb to the criticism of those who recommend ending exercises. And always call out Kim Jong-un's strategy - “ …what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; … next best is to disrupt his alliances.”
Sun Tzu (Sun Tzu, Samuel B; Griffith, Trans. (London: Oxford University Press, 1963), p. 77-78.)
Second, never ever back down in the face of north Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.
Third, coordinate an alliance response. There may be times when a good cop-bad cop approach is appropriate. Try to mitigate the internal domestic political criticisms that will inevitably occur in Seoul and DC. Do not let those criticisms negatively influence policy and actions.
Fourth, exploit weakness in north Korea - cause internal pressure on Kim and the regime from his elite and military. Always work to drive a wedge among the party, elite, and military (which is a challenge since they are all intertwined and inextricably linked).
Fifth, demonstrate strength and resolve. Do not be afraid to show military strength. Never misunderstand the north's propaganda - do not give into demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on north Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat, they want to weaken the alliance and force the US troops off of the peninsula which will be the result if they are unable to effectively train.
Sixth, depending on the nature of the provocation, be prepared to initiate a decisive response using the most appropriate tools, e.g., diplomatic, military, economic, information and influence activities, cyber, etc. or a combination.
North Korea’s Missile Tests: Addressing Vs Normalizing – Analysis
By Dr Sandip Kumar Mishra*
On 19 October 2021, North Korea tested another ballistic missile. It was reportedly a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Sinpo is a port city in North Korea’s South Hamgyong Province, on the coast of the East Sea. The city is known to be a hub for naval facilities in North Korea. The missile was launched towards waters off the coast of Japan in the East Sea and reportedly travelled around 450 km and at a maximum height of 60 km. This was the seventh North Korean missile test since March 2021. Pyongyang has tested missiles every year since 2003, with the exceptions of 2010, 2011, and 2018. No testing took place between March 2020 to March 2021, but this had less to do with strategic calculations, and more to do with the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2018, North Korea did not undertake missile tests due to overtures for engagement from South Korea and the US. However, the process of testing resumed upon Pyongyang realising that the US was not ready to forgo economic sanctions in the near future. Thus, in 2019, North Korea conducted 18 ballistic missile tests and one submarine-launched ballistic missile test. In 2020, it conducted 6 ballistic missile tests and 2 cruise missile tests.
Pyongyang’s missile tests are becoming increasingly more sophisticated in terms of diversification, range, payload, launching diversity, and maneuverability. North Korea claims that the SLBM tested on 19 October 2021 was “the world’s most powerful weapon.” In October 2019, Pyongyang launched an SLBM, Pukguksong-3, from an underwater platform, firing at a high angle in order to avoid the reconnaissance radars of enemy countries. The missile reached a high point of 910 km, while travelling around 450 km. If it had been launched at a standard trajectory (just around 500 km in height) it would have travelled a distance of around 1,900 km. Apart from the angle, launching it underwater or via a submarine also rendered it unique in terms of stealth, meaning the missile could easily reach closer to its targets. The recently tested SLBM also has similar advantages.
Past short-range missile tests have been explained as North Korean pushing to bring the US and South Korea to the negotiating table. However, Pyongyang’s long-range missile tests are seen as a demonstration of its interest in advancing technological development. This implies that North Korea is not keen to give them up. There has also been debate about which of the recent missile tests have violated UN resolutions. While understanding the range of motivations driving its behaviour is not easy, North Korea is certainly determined to maintain, and to improve, its nuclear and missile capabilities. From the North Korean perspective, the best possible scenario would involve negotiating sanctions relief with the US and the international community while also retaining its technological capabilities. In return, Pyongyang would promise its best and most responsible behaviour. In the second best scenario, North Korea may agree to partially roll back its nuclear and missile programmes in return for sanctions relief.
North Korean intent was made quite obvious by the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, as recently as last week. He asserted that the country would continue developing weapons for self-defence against enemies. In January 2021, at the 8th Party Congress of the Workers’ Party, Kim said that North Korea would develop more weapons and increase military capacity to counter threats from the US and South Korea.
North Korea’s interest in the possibility of talks with the US and South Korea, which it would like as soon as possible, is notable. This has motivated it to not conduct nuclear or inter-continental ballistic missile tests since late 2017. Through its other missile tests though, Pyongyang is signalling that further delays in negotiations might mean more advanced North Korean capabilities for the world to deal with.
North Korea’s continuous stream of missile tests have become so normalised that now, news of more tests seems almost mundane. The US, Japan, and South Korea issue routine statements, but there has been no follow-up action. Much attention is devoted to the technical details of these missile tests. We also need an articulation of more long-term analyses of North Korean intent as well as possible responses from the international community so these can be addressed urgently and proactively.
*Dr Sandip Kumar Mishra is Associate Professor, Centre for East Asian Studies, SIS, JNU, & Distinguished Fellow, IPCS.
11. South Korea to develop its own naval interception system as it grows advanced military capabilities
Independent warfighting capabilities.
South Korea to develop its own naval interception system as it grows advanced military capabilities
Seoul is planning a ship-based system to detect and destroy short-range aircraft and missiles amid the continuing security threat from the North
Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has lost 20kg and isn’t using a body double, said the South’s spy agency
By Park Chan-Kyong South China Morning Post3 min
South Korean navy destroyer, the Munmu The Great, prepares to dock. The country’s new naval interception system will protect warships from hostile aircraft and missiles. Photo: AP
South Korea will soon start developing a home-grown naval interception system designed to protect warships from hostile aircraft and missiles, the state arms procurement agency said on Friday.
The country’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said it would launch a project next month to create a ship-based gun system for detecting and destroying short-range incoming enemy aircraft and missiles, in the final stage of the Navy’s multilayered interception programme. It aims to have the project complete by 2027.
This comes as the country boosts its defence spending to grow its advanced military capabilities, with an eye on the continued security threat from North Korea. Meanwhile, Asian countries are also acquiring new defence systems in response to China’s growing military might.
South Korea also has ambitions to be a military powerhouse by developing its own defence equipment and arms.
Last month, South Korea successfully test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile for the first time. After further testing, it will be mass-produced for deployment, local media reported.
South Korea’s defence exports in 2020 are estimated to have reached 1. 7 trillion won (US$1. 43 billion), about the same as the previous year.
In a request submitted to parliament last month, DAPA sought nearly 1.5 trillion won (US$1.3 billion) for defence technology research and development, a 76 per cent jump from this year’s budget.
The new naval interception system, named the Close In Weapon System-II (CIWS-II), will eventually replace US and Dutch weaponry on which South Korea’s navy currently relies on for its final-stage interceptions.
“This project will provide us with chances to secure home-grown technology for final-stage interceptions, help boost the navy’s combat capabilities, bring about chances for exports and enhance competitive edges of the defence industry,” said Bang Geuk-cheol, a senior DAPA official.
Close-in weapons systems refer to final-stage navy weapons used to counter anti-ship missiles and enemy aircraft when interceptor missiles known as rolling airframe missiles (RAMs) fail to destroy them.
Under the new project, the navy plans to apply local technology for active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and computer-controlled highly sophisticated radars, and develop technologies to counter various types of threats, such as those from hostile sea-skimming missiles and infiltrating high-speed boats, DAPA said.
The CIWS-II will be mounted on major naval ships, including destroyers currently in development under the Korean Destroyer Next Generation project.
Lee Il-woo, a defence analyst at the Korea Defence Network, said Seoul had decided to wean itself from Dutch and US providers for close-in navy weapons as maintenance services for the Dutch systems took too long and the US systems were too costly.
“The new system is necessary to counter threats from not only North Korea but any other potential enemies including China and Japan,” Lee said.
North Korea has continued with its missile development programme and has not responded to sanctions or efforts by the US, China or South Korea to end its nuclear programme, saying it needs it for self-defence.
On Thursday, Seoul’s spy agency said North Korea may have reprocessed spent fuel rods at its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear facility from February to July. This assessment was in line with analysis from the UN’s atomic watchdog released in late August.
The spy agency’s comments were communicated to the media by lawmakers who attended a briefing. The agency also told the briefing that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had lost about 20kg and appeared to be in good health, dismissing rumours that he was using a body double.
The 37-year-old leader – overweight and a smoker – has been the subject of health speculation for years and his public appearances are closely tracked for insights about the autocratic and secretive regime in Pyongyang, especially since his family has a history of heart disease.
Additional reporting by Bloomberg
Park Chan-kyong is a South Korean journalist who has worked for the Agence France-Presse Seoul bureau for 35 years. He is now working for the South China Morning Post. He studied political science at Korea University and economics at the Yonsei University Graduate School.
12. Kim Jong Un loses 20 kgs, not using body double, clarifies spy agency
A Kim Jong-un body double no longer has the appeal it once did if Kim Jong-un has gone on a strict diet regime!
Excerpts:
But unconfirmed rumors about him have continued to appear, with one tabloid claiming that recent public appearances used an impostor. The NIS dismissed that report as groundless, lawmaker Kim Byung-kee said.
He said the NIS told the parliamentary session that Kim’s weight has fallen from about 140 kilograms (308 pounds) to 120 kilograms (264 pounds). The NIS has previously said Kim is about 170 centimeters (5 feet, 8 inches) tall.
It said Kim has been engaged in public activities for 70 days so far this year, a 45% increase from the same period last year.
The lawmaker said the NIS found that Kim had photos of his late father and grandfather — who ruled North Korea before him — removed from a Workers’ Party conference room.
Another lawmaker, Ha Tae-keung, quoted the NIS as saying North Korea has begun using the term “Kimjongunism," a political ideology named after Kim Jong Un that is independent of existing ideologies named after his father and grandfather, “Kimjongilism" and “Kimilsungism."
After about 10 years in office, Kim is struggling to overcome what appears to be the toughest period of his rule due to economic hardships worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.
Kim Jong Un loses 20 kgs, not using body double, clarifies spy agency
The National Intelligence Service gave the assessment during a closed-door parliamentary briefing, saying it used artificial intelligence techniques, an analysis of super-resolution video of Kim and other methods to investigate Kim’s condition, said two lawmakers who attended the session.
Kim’s health has been a focus of keen outside attention in recent months because he has appeared noticeably thinner in state media photos and videos. Kim, 37, hasn’t publicly anointed a successor and some experts say an abrupt incapacitation could trigger chaos in the impoverished nuclear-armed country.
Despite Kim's thinner appearance, longtime North Korea observers have said Kim has no apparent health problems and his weight loss is likely the result of his efforts to improve his physique. They noted that he has continued his regular public activities and no unusual developments have been seen in North Korean videos.
But unconfirmed rumors about him have continued to appear, with one tabloid claiming that recent public appearances used an impostor. The NIS dismissed that report as groundless, lawmaker Kim Byung-kee said.
He said the NIS told the parliamentary session that Kim’s weight has fallen from about 140 kilograms (308 pounds) to 120 kilograms (264 pounds). The NIS has previously said Kim is about 170 centimeters (5 feet, 8 inches) tall.
It said Kim has been engaged in public activities for 70 days so far this year, a 45% increase from the same period last year.
The lawmaker said the NIS found that Kim had photos of his late father and grandfather — who ruled North Korea before him — removed from a Workers’ Party conference room.
Another lawmaker, Ha Tae-keung, quoted the NIS as saying North Korea has begun using the term “Kimjongunism," a political ideology named after Kim Jong Un that is independent of existing ideologies named after his father and grandfather, “Kimjongilism" and “Kimilsungism."
After about 10 years in office, Kim is struggling to overcome what appears to be the toughest period of his rule due to economic hardships worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.
According to the NIS, North Korea’s annual trade with China, its main ally and economic lifeline, declined by two-thirds to $185 million through September this year compared to the previous year, Ha said.
North Korean officials are struggling to deal with soaring prices of goods and shortages of medicine and other essential supplies that have accelerated the spread of water-borne diseases such as typhoid fever. The country has also been unable to import the paper and ink it uses to print banknotes, forcing North Korean officials to issue temporary currency, according to Ha’s account of the NIS briefing.
While reduced trade has limited the supply of materials needed for industrial activity, North Korean officials are pushing workers hard to increase production. Excessive factory operations caused an explosion at a major fertilizer plant in August, Ha quoted the NIS as saying.
The NIS corroborated recent reports by the World Health Organization that North Korea is beginning to ease its tough COVID-19 border restrictions to receive outside help.
The western North Korean seaport of Nampo is now “saturated" with supplies from the outside world after authorities recently began allowing increased maritime transport and the entrance of medical supplies, according to the NIS. North Korea is preparing to open another seaport in the northwest, Yongchon, to handle the increased supplies and is also considering restarting rail transport with China and Russia, it said.
North Korea has yet to report any cases of the coronavirus. While experts have questioned its claim of a perfect record, Ha said the NIS has yet to see any signs of a major COVID-19 outbreak.
Despite its severe virus-related border controls, North Korea hasn’t shown the same kind of urgency for vaccines, as mass immunizations continue to be delayed amid global shortages.
Ha said North Korea has rejected outside offers of Russian and Chinese vaccines. Kim, the lawmaker, said the NIS has determined North Korea also hasn't shown interest in obtaining Pfizer vaccines, which would require negotiations with the drugmaker and the U.S.
Analysts say North Korea could be uneasy about international monitoring requirements that would be attached to vaccines it receives from the outside world. There are also views that Kim Jong Un has domestic political motivations to tighten the country’s self-imposed lockdown as he calls for unity and tries to solidify his grip on power.
This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text.
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13. Academics involved in North Korea studies are hacked
It is more than academics. All Korea watchers in Korea and the US and around the world are targets.
Sunday
October 31, 2021
Academics involved in North Korea studies are hacked
A cyber security company warned on Thursday that hackers connected to North Korea were attempting to break into South Korean computers using an e-mail message disguised as a news update regarding President Roh Tae-woo's death.
The company, called East Security, explained that hackers sent e-mails bearing the sender ID “Naver News” to academics and experts working in North Korea-related fields.
The actual origin of the e-mails was found to be the Bulgarian e-mail service “mail.bg”. The service has been used several times by cyber-criminal organizations linked to North Korea.
East Security said the attacks seemed to be from a hacking group called “Thallium,” which is linked to the North’s Reconnaissance General Bureau, the state intelligence agency that manages clandestine operations against the South.
In the last two decades, Pyongyang has shifted from using ground operatives to state-sponsored and employed hackers to conduct intelligence operations targeting Seoul.
The e-mail purported to be a news article saying that SK Chairman Choi Tae-won, the late former president’s son-in-law, would visit Roh’s funerary altar at Seoul National University Hospital to pay his respects and afterward go on a business trip to the United States.
By masquerading as a bona fide news update, the message lowered the chances that the recipients might catch on to the fact it was a hacking attempt.
Clicking a button redirected the user to a fake news website of ‘nnews.naver-con.cloudns[.]cl’ that shows a fake front page.
Phrases and graphic logos employed in the ruse article were lifted without authorization from actual news articles posted on the Korean portal site Naver.
However, if a recipient of the message pressed the “News Shortcut” button included in the text, it surreptitiously connects the user to an overseas server called livelogin365.in[.]net.
Once connected to that overseas server, there was a high risk that some private data, such as the user’s IP address and web browser, may be exposed.
There was an additional possibility that malicious files could be installed on the user’s computer, although it was not immediately clear if this actually occurred.
Thallium has been known to insert malicious macro codes into Word, Excel or PDF files sent to target computers. Once downloaded, such files exposed those computers to hacking attacks.
It was not clear if hackers used the fake news article to actually hack their targets, or merely check if the e-mail recipients had clicked the button inside the e-mail, or were on guard against hacking attempts.
Moon Jong-hyeon, chief of East Security, warned that analysts and academics working in North Korea-related fields of research should “always be wary of messages sent by people with whom they have had no previous contact.”
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
14. Unification minister meets with WFP chief, senior Vatican official in Rome
I hope he asked how the WFP will support South Korea when there are contingencies in north Korea? How will the WFP support humanitarian assistance when the regime collapses and during the unification process following either collapse or war? This is the kind of planning the unification ministry should be doing - planning for eventual unification.
Unification minister meets with WFP chief, senior Vatican official in Rome | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Oct. 31 (Yonhap) -- Unification Minister Lee In-young held meetings with the chief of the World Food Program (WFP) and a senior Vatican official during a trip to Rome and discussed issues related to North Korea, the ministry said Sunday.
The meetings with David Beasley, executive director of the U.N. food agency, and Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, the first Prefect of the Dicastery for the Promotion of Integral Human Development, took place Saturday as Lee was in Rome to accompany President Moon Jae-in.
During the meeting with Beasley, the two sides exchanged assessments of the North's recent food situation and discussed ways of cooperation to address humanitarian issues in the North, according to the ministry.
The meeting with Turkson included discussions on roles the Vatican can play to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula, such as humanitarian cooperation and efforts to declare a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, the ministry said.
(END)
15. S. Korea to bid farewell to late former President Roh
A complicated figure during a complicated history causing complications for the current administration.
S. Korea to bid farewell to late former President Roh | Yonhap News Agency
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Oct. 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea was set to bid farewell to late former President Roh Tae-woo on Saturday, marking the end of a five-day state funeral for a leader who drew both criticism and praise for his role in staging a coup and then embracing democracy.
Roh, who died Tuesday at age 88, will be given a funeral ceremony at the Peace Plaza at Olympic Park in eastern Seoul at 11 a.m.
His body will be brought from Seoul National University Hospital, where he died of chronic ailments after a bout with prostate cancer, cerebellar atrophy and asthma, and cremated following the ceremony to be laid to rest.
The government has yet to announce where Roh will be buried, although his family has reportedly been looking at a site on Unification Hill in the border town of Paju, 30 kilometers north of Seoul. The tourist and natural attraction was conceived under Roh as part of his administration's efforts to promote peace with North Korea.
Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, the head of the state funeral committee, is scheduled to deliver a eulogy at the ceremony.
The choice of Olympic Park as the venue has symbolic meaning because it was there that the 1988 Summer Olympics were held successfully during Roh's term.
President Moon Jae-in will be absent from the proceedings as he is currently on a visit to Europe.
His spokesperson earlier said he prayed for the deceased and delivered words of condolences to the bereaved family while noting that Roh had "not a few historical faults" but also achievements.
Roh, who served as South Korea's last general-turned-president from 1988-93, leaves behind a mixed legacy.
He has been heavily criticized for helping his predecessor Chun Doo-hwan seize power through a 1979 military coup and ruthlessly crack down on a pro-democracy uprising in the southwestern city of Gwangju the following year.
He has also been praised for restoring the direct presidential vote, through which he was elected, and establishing ties with socialist states in the post-Cold War period, including the Soviet Union and China.
In his will, Roh asked for forgiveness from victims of the crackdown in Gwangju, which, according to conservative official data, left more than 200 dead and 1,800 others wounded.
The government's decision to hold a state funeral was met with protest from critics who claimed the deceased did not deserve the honor. State funerals are paid for by the government.
By law, Roh is not eligible for burial at a national cemetery because he was convicted of crimes, including corruption and mutiny, and served time in prison before being pardoned in 1997.
The deceased is survived by his wife, former first lady Kim Ok-suk, and a daughter and son.
(END)
16. North says no more sanctions in return for end-of-war talks
This is it. The regime could not be any more clear.
But this is also political warfare. The regime is creating the conditions for the ROK to pressure the US for sanctions relief and when the US refuses the regime will be able to paint the US as the roadblock to peace which will cause further friction in the alliance. This will set up future propaganda messages for a long time to come.
Sunday
October 31, 2021
North says no more sanctions in return for end-of-war talks
North Korea demanded that sanctions be lifted as a condition for negotiations to discuss a formal declaration to end the Korean War, a parliamentary audit found on Thursday.
The North’s stipulation for beginning talks to formally end the war was confirmed during an audit of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) conducted by the National Assembly’s intelligence committee.
According to intelligence committee members Kim Byung-kee of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and Ha Tae-keung of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), the NIS reported that the North’s demands for discussing a formal end to the 1950-1953 Korean War, which ended with only an armistice and not a peace treaty, included the lifting of sanctions on mineral exports and imports of refined oil along with the suspension of joint training exercises between South Korea and the United States.
North Korea’s conditions for talks on formally concluding the war — which carry no guarantee of a peace treaty or any concessions from the North to give up its nuclear or missile weapons programs — has emerged as a sticking point of difference between Seoul and Washington.
Even as the United States' Joe Biden administration says that it is willing to meet the North “anywhere, anytime” and without pre-conditions, Washington is clear that sanctions will not be lifted without meaningful change from Pyongyang, while the North insists that sanctions must be scrapped before it will come to any negotiating table.
The North is further demanding that once end-of-war talks are underway, the United States must drop its “hostile policy” and “double standards” towards the reclusive regime, as the country’s state media often refers to Washington’s approach to Pyongyang.
It is further unclear to what extent current U.S. policy regarding the Korean Peninsula, including the stationing of U.S. troops in the South — a long point of objection by the North, but also viewed as a security guarantee and sign of U.S. military commitment to the South — must change for the North to be satisfied to proceed to formally ending the war.
While the Moon administration is pursuing a formal end-of-war declaration as necessary to resume denuclearization talks with North Korea, denuclearization has not been mentioned by the North as the next stage after the Korean War is officially ended.
Given these conditions set by the North, it is unlikely that Washington would accept sanctions relief as a price for restarting talks with Pyongyang, according to analysts.
However, there remains a possibility that Pyongyang seeks to apply pressure on Seoul to convince Washington to scrap sanctions by setting strong conditions for end-of-war talks.
The North could also stand to benefit strategically from even a pause in joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which maintain the allies’ readiness in the event of war.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
17. N. Korea accuses U.S. of acquiescing in nuclear proliferation with 'double standards'
Yes you really have to admire the north Korean Propaganda and Agitation Department. It sets the example for "whataboutism."
N. Korea accuses U.S. of acquiescing in nuclear proliferation with 'double standards' | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Oct. 31 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's foreign ministry on Sunday accused the United States of "acquiescing" in nuclear proliferation around the world based on "double standards," taking issue with the U.S.' recent submarine deal with Australia and other policy moves.
The ministry made the accusations in an article, entitled "Is the U.S. really a guardian of the nuclear non-proliferation regime?," claiming that the international community is paying attention to the U.S.' "systematic" violation of the regime.
"The U.S. itself has ignored the principle of nuclear non-proliferation and allowed for double standards in line with their strategy for the domination of the world," the ministry said in the writing.
The ministry stressed that the U.S. built and used nuclear arms for the first time in the world and took the first proliferation step by transferring technology for nuclear-powered submarines to Britain on the pretext of responding to threats from the then Soviet Union in the past.
The ministry also took note of the recent trilateral agreement among the U.S., Britain and Australia to equip Australia with "conventionally-armed" but nuclear-powered submarines.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
18. U.S. to offer $12 mln in grants to prevent proliferation of N. Korean WMD
This does indicate that we are concerned with north Korean proliferation. But this is just one part of what has to be a larger counter-proliferation strategy. Perhaps this is a good effort to crowd source policy, strategy, and elements of a campaign plan.
One research question I would ask for the academics and think tanks to research is how to reinvigorate and revitalize the proliferation security initiative (PSI)? Some 107 countries endorsed the statement of prinicplesonto this Bush 43 initiative nearly 20 years ago. How effective has it been and how could we better operationalize it to choke off north Korean proliferation of WMD, conventional weapons, and training to conflict zones.
References:
Proliferation Security Initiative: Statement of Interdiction Principles
Proliferation Security Initiatve
As of 2019, 107 states have endorsed the Statement of Principles.
U.S. to offer $12 mln in grants to prevent proliferation of N. Korean WMD | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. State Department seeks to provide up to US$12 million in grants to entities working to implement U.N. sanctions on North Korea and prevent weapons proliferation by the reclusive state, a public post showed Friday.
"While the United States continues to seek negotiations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to reach the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it maintains the policy that international pressure and sanctions must remain in force until the DPRK fully denuclearizes," said the notice posted by the department's Bureau of International Security-Nonproliferation at a website for U.S. government grants.
DPRK is short for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
It added the department "supports the pressure campaign against the DPRK by training partners to implement United Nations Security Council Resolutions constraining the DPRK's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation, to detect and halt DPRK-linked sanctions evasion activities, and to impede the DPRK's material and financial activities that fund the development of WMD and related delivery systems."
The announcement, posted Thursday, says grants will be available to both domestic and international organizations, and that eligible applicants include both non-for-profit and for-profit organizations, as well as public and private educational institutions.
The department said it expected about 30 organizations to be awarded grants under its International Security-Nonproliferation program, with each winner given a minimum of $50,000 and maximum of $250,000.
All applications for grants must be submitted by the end of January.
North Korea has stayed away from denuclearization negotiations since 2019, and is ignoring overtures for dialogue from the Joe Biden administration that came into office in January.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
19. [Peace & Prosperity] N. Korea’s SLBM test amid discussion for the end-of-war declaration
I was a guest on Arirang TV's weekly show, Peace and Prosperity, to discuss north Korea's SLBM test and the end of war declaration.
[Peace & Prosperity] N. Korea’s SLBM test amid discussion for the end-of-war declaration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzY1z0bxQbI&list=FL3fu5rXx0ma6f9Ze3C1i-MA&index=2
North Korea launched an SLBM in the early morning on October 19th. The attention is gathered on Pyeongyang’s motivation as its test came in the midst of S. Korea’s effort to push for an active discussion on declaring an end of the Korean War. The S. Korean government aims to improve inter-Korean relations and achieve denuclearization by using the end-of-war declaration as a stepping stone. What is N. Korea’s SLBM test’s significance and its impact on the peninsula moving forward?
종전 선언 논의 중 북 SLBM 발사, 의미는?
북한이 지난 19일 오전 SLBM을 발사했다. 정부가 종전선언 관련 논의를 활발히 이어가고 있던 와중에 일어난 일이라 그 배경에 관심이 모아지고 있다. 종전선언을 대북 비핵화 협상과 남북관계 개선의 마중물로 삼으려는 한국 정부. 북한의 SLBM 발사의 의미와 앞으로의 영향은 무엇일까?
진행자
- 봉영식 / 연세대 통일연구원 전문연구원
게스트
- Kim Jaechun / Professor at Sogang Graduate School of International Studies
화상연결
- David Maxwell / Senior Fellow Foundation for Defense of Democracies
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
