Mission Statement:
To financially empower our clients so that they can achieve their most
important goals and to confidently plan for the future that they envision
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No, I won't be making any changes due
to the election
Common question I get: Which Presidential candidate, Trump of Biden, will be better for the market?
My answer: Shrug
First, you have to predict who will win. Then you have to predict which party takes the Senate and the House. Then you have to predict how Federal Reserve Policy over the last 10 years will impact the economy over the next 10 years. Then you have to predict when and if we get a Covid vaccine.
Good luck with that.
I have no doubt people will say "I predicted that" about all of the above a few months after the election. They'll feel good about themselves while the rest of us roll our eyes. These are binary predictions; coin tosses. Coming up heads on each one of the above predictions is unlikely. If you care to write down your predictions and share them with the world right now, go for it. This way, if you are correct about all of the above, you could crow all about it. Otherwise, your predictions were really just a momentary feeling that will change based on the news cycle. OK, rant over.
My point is that Presidents have much less control over the external forces that affect the economy and financial markets than is believed by many. Economic and financial market cycles move on their own inertia and change direction after an incalculable amount of variations in their condition. War, trade, tax, deficits, currency fluctuation, global warming, and above all, human nature.
Every President who resided over a lousy economy was burdened by external forces that they had no control over, such as inflation or deflation. Same goes for every President who resided over a strong economy. Everyone of them had to deal with the consequences of monetary and fiscal policies of previous administrations, Congress's, and central bankers. Oil shocks, oil gluts. Strong dollar, weak dollar. Check out this chart:
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It's the best visualization I've seen on this subject. A Democratic President with a Republican Congress has historically been best for the stock market, since 1950, on average. It's a pretty small subset to go by, though. A Republican President with a Democratic controlled congress was the worst performance. But I don't think this tells me enough about how the stock market could perform from 2021 to 2025. Each one of these time periods had unique variables that just don't apply to every cycle. This was put out by AthenaInvest. Check out the full post; it's excellent: Click here to view full article
So, no, I am not making any changes to the way I manage client portfolios based on the upcoming election, in about 50 days. Answering the question about which Presidential candidate will be better for the stock market isn't doing you any favors.
But I will continue to preach sound personal finance habits and investing based on your unique risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals.
Now, let's get to Clips of the Week! I host a live stream every Monday through Thursday, at 4:30 PM ET. The name of the show is BE THE BOSS OF YOUR MONEY. It's a show about personal finance, investing tips, business, and perspectives about relevant content and culture.Below are a few clips that we took out of the live episodes that encapsulate the main topic or lesson.
I hope you enjoy them. If you do, please subscribe to my YouTube channel while your watching them. You could catch my show on LinkedIn, Facebook, and YouTube, links below. You could also watch the replays on my social media profiles too.
Here goes:
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Please subscribe to my YouTube channel:
Thanks!
Mitch
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Want to schedule a phone appointment with me to speak about your financial goals? click the "Let's talk" pic.
Or email me directly:
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I opened ClientFirst Strategy, Inc. because I believe that the only way to help my clients potentially achieve their goals is by offering unbiased advice & investment management expertise. To my clients, thank you for your continued vote of confidence. If you are not a client but would like to explore the possibility of becoming one, I invite you to call me directly, visit my website, join my email list, and/or connect with me on social media. |
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Mitchell O. Goldberg
AIF®, AAMS
President | Investment Professional
OSJ Manager
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ClientFirst Strategy, Inc.
290 Broadhollow Road, Suite 200 E, Melville, NY 11747
(D) 631-920-6622 (F) 631-920-6624 (C) 516-818-0338
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All the views expressed in this report/commentary accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views we have expressed in this report. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments, or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against your interests, and you may get back less than the amount you invested. The information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. You should consult with your tax adviser regarding your specific situation. Diversification is a method of managing risk and doesn't protect against loss in a down market. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are indexes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. *The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. **The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.
Securities and investment advisory services offered through NEXT Financial Group, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. ClientFirst Strategy, Inc. is not an affiliate of NEXT Financial Group, Inc.
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