Quotes of the Day:
“It must be remembered that some groups will ignore any constitutional provision in their aim to establish themselves as new dictators. Therefore, a permanent role will exist for the population to apply political defiance and noncooperation against would-be dictators and to preserve democratic structures, rights, and procedures.”
- Gene Sharp, From Dictatorship to Democracy
“All succeeding political philosophy is a footnote and a commentary on Plato.”
- Michael Curtis, The Great Political Theories, Volume 1
“Given the tendency of nations, particularly great powers, to engage in war unjustifiably and to set in motion the apparatus of the state to suppress dissent, the respect accorded to pacifism serves the purpose of alerting citizens to the wrongs that governments are prone to commit in their name.”
- John Rawls, A Theory of Justice
1. N. Korea remains unresponsive to Seoul's hotline calls after Kim Yo-jong's statements
2. Cheong Wa Dae says inter-Korean communication lines should be back in operation first
3. N.Korea Only Wants Recognition as Nuclear Power
4. Korea to chair IAEA for first time
5. N.Korea Says Peace Talks Possible If It's Given 'Respect'
6. Where should Korea be headed?
7. Siding with China (South Korea)
8. North Korean media outlet denounces US as 'human rights abuser'
9. Living with a nuclear North Korea
10. Over a dozen military parade participants rushed to hospital after showing signs of COVID-19
11. New prison camp in N. Pyongan Province is a political prison camp
12. North Korea’s latest missile provocation isn't surprising at all – it was entirely predictable
13. North Korea says hope is alive for peace summit with South Korea
14. Key takeaways from S. Korea’s missile tests
15. North Korea’s overture on talks is a test: experts
1. N. Korea remains unresponsive to Seoul's hotline calls after Kim Yo-jong's statements
Kim Yo-jong continues to play hard to get. She has been quite the tease getting up the hopes of the Moon administration.
(LEAD) N. Korea remains unresponsive to Seoul's hotline calls after Kim Yo-jong's statements | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS ministry spokesperson's remarks in paras 5-6, photo)
SEOUL, Sept. 27 (Yonhap) -- North Korea remained unresponsive to South Korea's calls via liaison and military hotlines Monday despite cautious optimism created after the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the two Koreas could discuss improvements in long-strained relations.
"North Korea did not answer our opening call through the South-North joint liaison office at 9 a.m.," a unification ministry official said. A military official also said a call via the military hotline went unanswered.
Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of the North Korean leader, issued two statements last week in which she said the two Koreas could discuss improvement in inter-Korean relations, reestablishment of the Kaesong liaison office and even a summit on conditions that Seoul drops its double-standard and hostile attitudes against it.
The statements followed President Moon Jae-in's offer for a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War in his U.N. speech. The unification ministry saw Kim's statements as positive and expressed hope for the resumption of cross-border communication and dialogue.
"It is more important than anything else to have communication in a smooth and stable manner so as to realize denuclearization, the establishment of lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula, and the advancement of relations between the South and the North through dialogue and cooperation," Lee Jong-joo, the ministry's spokesperson, told a regular press briefing.
"The government expects a swift restoration of the liaison communication line and resumption of government-to-government dialogue, as well as discussions and the creation of solutions to a variety of pending issues facing the two Koreas," she added.
Inter-Korean relations have remained in a deadlock since the no-deal summit between the United States and North Korea in early 2019. The ties chilled further after North Korea blew up the Kaesong liaison office and cut off all cross-border communication lines in protest of anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent from the South.
The lines went briefly back online in late July, but the North has not answered Seoul's regular calls -- twice a day -- again as it bristled at joint military drills by South Korea and the U.S.
The two Koreas are still technically at war, as the Korean War ended in a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.
kokobj@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. Cheong Wa Dae says inter-Korean communication lines should be back in operation first
Kim jong-un please just answer the phone.
Cheong Wa Dae says inter-Korean communication lines should be back in operation first | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 27 (Yonhap) -- The office of President Moon Jae-in said Monday North Korea needs to put its hotlines with South Korea back in operation first for consultations on ways to improve bilateral ties, including the possibility of another summit between their leaders.
Park Soo-hyun, senior Cheong Wa Dae secretary for public communication, described it as a method to confirm Pyongyang's "will" to hold dialogue.
He was referring to a statement by Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korea leader Kim Jong-un, that her country would consider declaring a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, as proposed by Moon, and holding summit talks with the South, if Seoul restores mutual trust. She did not elaborate on the pre-conditions Pyongyang wants.
Park said the South Korean government is prudently analyzing Kim's statement, speaking at a local radio interview.
He pointed out Kim had used a "vague" expression in talking about mutual trust and respect.
He added the North is still avoiding daily routine contact through the inter-Korean communication lines, restored in July, in apparent protest against the South's annual joint defense drills with the United States.
The first step in the "best scenario," going forward, is for the North to "respond" to the communication channel calls.
It will pave the way for various levels of dialogue, consultations and accords, he added.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. N.Korea Only Wants Recognition as Nuclear Power
Yes. But not only, it is one of a number of vital interests, aims, conditions and desires.
Kim Family Regime Strategy
-
Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime
-
Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula
- Subversion, coercion, extortion, use of force
-
Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance
- US forces off the Peninsula
- “Divide and Conquer” – Divide the Alliance and conquer the ROK
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Desire: Recognition as nuclear power – negotiate SALT/START
- Nuclear weapons key to deterrence – Hwang Jong Yop
- nK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons
N.Korea Only Wants Recognition as Nuclear Power
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's younger sister Yo-jong has said peace talks with South Korea are possible if the North is shown "respect." "I think that only when impartiality and the attitude of respecting each other are maintained, can there be smooth understanding between the North and the South," she said last Saturday. A day earlier she dangled the prospect of accepting President Moon Jae-in's offer to declare a formal end to the Korean War before him if the South abandons its "hostile policy."
This is clearly an olive branch with strings attached, but what are the strings? Kim Yo-jong claimed that the North's test launches of cruise and ballistic missiles aimed at South Korea were acts of "self-defense" even though North Korea is racing ahead with its development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles at a pace that has alarmed the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.S. Senate. But the North is telling Moon to keep silent about that if he wants to another photo-op before his term ends. North Korea's Foreign Ministry cited the joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises and strengthened Seoul-Washington alliance as examples of "hostile"policies, and Kim Yo-jong alluded to the South's development of its own submarine-launched ballistic missiles, as if they were the equivalent of its nuclear arms program.
Kim Yo-jong cannot help sneering. "Smiling a forced smile, reading the declaration of the termination of the war, and having photos taken could be essential for somebody," she said perceptively, referring to Moon. She knows perfectly well that Moon is desperate for a diplomatic coup to save his party at the next election. In July, North Korea reopened an inter-Korean hotline and demanded a halt to joint military exercises with the U.S., and the South duly slashed the number of participating troops to a twelfth the size of the drill held in 2017. North Korea still protested and stopped taking calls. Knowing Moon to be desperate, the North wants more, including an easing of sanctions. The Unification Ministry already pledged to provide W10 billion to civilian cross-border projects (US$1=W1,180).
But it is North Korea's nuclear weapons that have been the root cause of tensions on the Korean Peninsula over the last 30 years. The North tried to overpower the South with nuclear weapons ever since nation founder Kim Il-sung was in power, and now those efforts have reached fruition. All that is lacking is formal international recognition of the North as a nuclear power. Moon said, "When the parties involved in the Korean War stand together and proclaim an end to the war, I believe we can make irreversible progress in denuclearization and usher in an era of complete peace." But Kim Yo-jong made no mention of denuclearization and instead described the North's weapons of mass destruction as means of self-defense and demanded South Korea respect it. In other words, she wants North Korea to be recognized as a nuclear power. What does that have to do with peace?
4. Korea to chair IAEA for first time
This will be another target for north Korea's Propaganda and Agitation department. At some point they will denounce South Korean leadership.
But the buried lede is, according to the South Korea Foreign Ministry, Japan supported its assumptions of the chair.
The IAEA board nations are divided into eight regions, and a country per region takes turn to assume the chair position annually. Korea is part of the Far East nations, which also includes Japan.
For the last seven times that it became the turn of a Far East nation to assume the role, Japan did so six times, and Vietnam once.
Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it had the “full support” from Japan in winning the chair position this time.
“The cooperation between Japan and Korea at the IAEA is strong,” said the ministry official. “Japan agreed that Korea should take on the chair position and there was also a strong consensus within the Far East group that Korea should take on the role.”
According to the ministry, Korea is the 11th biggest donor among IAEA members in terms of its funding of the organization’s programs. In the past 20 years, Korea contributed over $10 million to its nuclear security and nonproliferation initiatives.
Monday
September 27, 2021
Korea to chair IAEA for first time
In this June 7 file photo, the flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) waves at the entrance of the Vienna International Center in Vienna. [AP/LISA LEUTNER/YONHAP]
Korea will chair the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors for the first time since it helped found the organization in 1957, the Foreign Ministry announced Monday.
“We consider it an international recognition of the contribution that Korea has made so far on preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and for the peaceful use of nuclear power,” a Foreign Ministry official told the press on Monday.
The board of governors consists of representatives from 35 nations including Australia, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United States, and is one of the two decision-making bodies of the IAEA.
The board meets five times a year to make recommendations on the IAEA’s programs and budget, reviews applications for membership and approves safeguard agreements, through which the IAEA verifies that a country is keeping its commitments on nuclear nonproliferation. Additionally, the board makes decisions on establishment of nuclear safety standards and promotes international cooperation on research and application of nuclear technology on agricultural production and industrial resource management.
While Korea has a number of its key security interests being dealt at the IAEA, including the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan and IAEA monitoring of North Korean nuclear weapons program, Korea’s assuming the chair will not necessarily mean the country will have more say in the IAEA’s decisions on those issues, the Foreign Ministry said.
“The chair of the board must maintain objectivity in dealing with these issues at the IAEA, and so when the board discusses Fukushima and other issues, the chair will maintain this objectivity,” said the ministry official.
“If there is any change at all that comes with Korea’s role as chair of the board, it will be that we will be able to understand what the IAEA board members have on their agenda in regards to the North’s nuclear weapons programs a little earlier than others, as they will report their findings to the chair,” said the official. “It will then be the job of the chair to ensure these agendas are communicated effectively amongst the members.”
North Korea was a member from 1974 to 1994. IAEA inspectors were forced to leave North Korea in 2009. The IAEA has since then been using public information and satellite images to monitor its nuclear weapons programs. Last month, the IAEA reported sightings of suspicious activities at North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex.
The IAEA board nations are divided into eight regions, and a country per region takes turn to assume the chair position annually. Korea is part of the Far East nations, which also includes Japan.
For the last seven times that it became the turn of a Far East nation to assume the role, Japan did so six times, and Vietnam once.
Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it had the “full support” from Japan in winning the chair position this time.
“The cooperation between Japan and Korea at the IAEA is strong,” said the ministry official. “Japan agreed that Korea should take on the chair position and there was also a strong consensus within the Far East group that Korea should take on the role.”
Shin Chae-Hyun, Korean ambassador to Austria and Korea’s permanent mission to the international organizations in Vienna, elected the chair of the IAEA board of governors on Monday. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]
According to the ministry, Korea is the 11th biggest donor among IAEA members in terms of its funding of the organization’s programs. In the past 20 years, Korea contributed over $10 million to its nuclear security and nonproliferation initiatives.
Shin Chae-Hyun, Korean ambassador to Austria and Korea’s permanent mission to the international organizations in Vienna, will assume the one-year role through September 2022. His predecessor was Ambassador Heidi Alberta Hulan, Canada’s permanent representative to the international organizations in Vienna and ambassador to Austria and Slovakia.
BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
5. N.Korea Says Peace Talks Possible If It's Given 'Respect'
Again, what about the regime showing respect for South Korea? -the 10th largest economy in the world, a purveyor of Korean culture around the world, with a military far more modern and capable than the north's and the only country in the world to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.
How about some respect for the South, Mr. Kim and Ms. Kim?
N.Korea Says Peace Talks Possible If It's Given 'Respect'
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister Yo-jong last Saturday said peace talks between the two Koreas are possible provided the North is treated with respect.
She was responding to President Moon Jae-in's proposal at the UN General Assembly earlier in the week to declare a formal end to the Korean War.
"I think that only when impartiality and the attitude of respecting each other are maintained, can there be smooth understanding between the North and the South," said Kim Yo-jong, who often acts as her brother's attack dog.
Talks could help solve issues like "the re-establishment of the North-South joint liaison office and the North-South summit, to say nothing of the timely declaration of the significant termination of the war," she added according to the official [North] Korean Central News Agency.
But she also demanded that South Korea abandon its "double standard" in condemning North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles while developing its own submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Seoul welcomes the remarks, saying the inter-Korean hotline must be urgently restored to get talks underway. "For these discussions, the inter-Korean communication line must first be restored swiftly, as smooth and stable communication is important," the Unification Ministry said in a statement.
The clock is ticking for Moon, whose term ends next May and who has staked his entire legacy on a diplomatic coup.
But Moon's proposal fell on deaf ears in the international community, which is focused on the U.S.' new anti-China alliances. The members of the anti-China Quadrilateral Security Dialogue -- Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. -- in a joint statement last Friday urged North Korea to completely and irreversibly scrap its nuclear weapons before sanctions can be lifted.
6. Where should Korea be headed?
A very important strategic question for South Korea.
Excerpt:
Meanwhile, there are voices calling to build nuclear submarines in Korea. With world-class nuclear reactor and shipbuilding technologies, it is not impossible. But a greater issue would come after the nuclear submarine is built. How would Korea convince China, whose stance would be narrowed by the launch of the Aukus? An arms race in Northeast Asia is inevitable. As the security axis in the Pacific is rapidly changing, where should Korea be headed?
Monday
September 27, 2021
Where should Korea be headed?
The nuclear-powered USS Oklahoma City at Naval Base Guam. [SCMP]
KANG KI-HEON
The author is an industry 1 team reporter of the JoongAng Ilbo.
“3…2…1. Mark! Sunday, 3 August 1958; 2315 Eastern Daylight Saving Time. For the U.S. and the U.S. Navy: the North Pole.”
Nuclear-powered submarine USS Nautilus was the first submarine to pass through the North Pole. Commander William Anderson wrote about the moment of reaching the North Pole. USS Nautilus reached the North Pole after three attempts.
Commissioned in 1954, it was named after the submarine in Jules Verne’s novel Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea. It used steam turbines propelled by nuclear fuel. As nuclear-powered submarines have an unlimited range, the amount of food loaded for the crew determines the radius of operation.
Nuclear submarines are the most threatening weapon. Nuclear bombs have not been used in real battles for more than half a century since the last one dropped on Nagasaki, Japan in 1945. The role of nuclear bombs is to check and show off. Meanwhile, nuclear submarines are operating somewhere in the sea even at this moment. Unlike diesel-powered submarines, they don’t’ have internal combustion engines and are very hard to detect.
The latest hot topic in international politics is nuclear submarines. The U.S. launched the security group Aukus and decided to transfer nuclear submarine technologies to Australia. Australia broke off a 77 trillion-won ($65.4 billion) submarine deal with France. French President Emmanuel Macron is protesting.
The U.S. and Australia reportedly discussed a transfer of nuclear submarine technology at the G7 summit in Cornwall, UK in June. They had a secret conversation without France, just like a stealth submarine. The nuclear submarine security alliance connecting the U.S., Australia and the UK is likely to greatly distort the invisible security axis across the Pacific Ocean.
Meanwhile, there are voices calling to build nuclear submarines in Korea. With world-class nuclear reactor and shipbuilding technologies, it is not impossible. But a greater issue would come after the nuclear submarine is built. How would Korea convince China, whose stance would be narrowed by the launch of the Aukus? An arms race in Northeast Asia is inevitable. As the security axis in the Pacific is rapidly changing, where should Korea be headed?
7. Siding with China (South Korea)
More criticism of the Foreign Minister's remarks in New York this week.
Again, the writer leaves out some key context and a phrase. note also the statement and fact sheet from the Quad meeting last week did not mention China a single time.
Excerpt from the CFR transcript.
ZAKARIA: Is Asia turning into a region where there are developing two blocs, a Chinese bloc and a—I don’t want to say anti-Chinese bloc, but let’s say a non-Chinese bloc—Korea, Australia, Japan, the United States? It does seem like that.
CHUNG: Well, Fareed, that’s the mentality of Cold War, like Chinese say. Well, I don’t think so, no. Well, we hope to see more stable relations between China and the United States because, from our perspective, both countries are very important.
As you know, the U.S. is the only ally we have. The alliance is the—is the main pillar of our foreign and security policy, and the alliance is essential for peace and stability not only on the Korean Peninsula but in the—in the region.
On the other hand, China is also a very important partner for us. China is the largest trading partner for us. The trade volume with China is larger than the sum of the trade volumes we have with Japan and the United States.
https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-foreign-minister-chung-eui-yong-republic-korea
Monday
September 27, 2021
Siding with China
Kim Jung-ha
The author is political news editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.
“It’s not China twenty years ago, so they want to project what they have into its foreign policy, which is only natural. But I don’t know whether we should call it assertive or not, you know. They want to have their voices heard by other members of the international community, and we should — we should try to listen to what they have to say to us.”
The above quote sounds like comments from a diplomat from Pakistan, a key friend of China. But amazingly, the comments were made by the foreign minister of Korea. And they were made in the United States amid the heightened tension between Beijing and Washington.
In a conversation in New York hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong responded to the moderator’s comment that China has become more assertive in the past few years. Chung said, “Well, I think it is natural because China is becoming stronger, economically more powerful.”
When the moderator, journalist Fareed Zakaria, categorized Korea, Australia, Japan and the United States as a “non-Chinese bloc” in Asia, Chung negated the idea. “Well, Fareed, that’s the mentality of Cold War, like Chinese say,” he said. Chung also said later that choosing between the United States and China is not a choice Korea will be forced to make.
The foreign minister was refuting the U.S. foreign policy to pressure China by promoting the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) among the U.S., Japan, India and China and the Aukus, a trilateral security pact among Australia, the UK and the U.S.
After he faced criticism for acting like a spokesperson of China, Chung said it is undesirable that a bloc of countries targets a specific country. “Just because I was in the United States, should I have not said that?” he said. “Many countries showed concern that China is coercive, but I don’t think China is coercive to us.”
Is he saying China is not coercive to Korea? That is nonsense. Chung tried hard to forget what China had done to South Korea after it decided to allow the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) missile defense system in 2016. At the time, China issued a strict ban on importing Korean cultural products such as K-pop, TV dramas and shows. Beijing imposed a massive boycott against Korean companies in China. Lotte Group, which offered the Thaad base site in Seongju, North Gyeongsang, underwent a massive tax investigation in China.
Furthermore, it is extremely serious that Chung is treating China and the United States equally. America is a democracy where individual people’s rights and freedom are guaranteed, while China is a one-party dictatorship and a totalitarian state. As we have seen in China’s oppression of Hong Kong’s efforts for democratization, Korea’s values can hardly reconcile with the ideology of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Furthermore, China is promoting an expansionary policy to include its neighbors and the rest of the world into a new Sinocentric order. Countries threatened by this move have asked the U.S. for help, which led to the creation of the QUAD and the Aukus.
Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, left, is interviewed by Fareed Zakaria, a CNN host and political commentator, about the Moon Jae-in administration’s diplomacy at the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States, Sept. 22. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]
Chung seems to believe that Korea will be safe from the new Sinocentric order — in contrast with India, Japan and Australia. But that’s sheer nonsense. The Moon Jae-in administration is treating the South China Sea dispute as if it were someone else’s business. But if China controls the waters, it will end up controlling Korea’s crude oil transportation route.
In his 2018 book, “Silent Invasion,” Clive Hamilton stirred an international controversy by exposing China’s secret attempts to bribe and coax Australian leaders into supporting China on global issues.
He said that strong interest groups are already working in the Korean business community to satisfy Beijing, which has secured friends and supporters among the communities of scholars, politicians and media leaders. His comparison of the reactions by Canberra and Seoul is shocking: while the Australian government tried to fight Beijing’s harassment, Korea’s political leaders are so freighted that they rush to maintain a weak attitude of ‘strategic ambiguity’ between China and the U.S. He also warned that if the Korean government naively believes it can protect the country’s sovereignty by keeping a close relationship with China, it is taking a risky gamble.
8. North Korean media outlet denounces US as 'human rights abuser'
Sigh...telling us about its true self? Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations.
North Korean media outlet denounces US as 'human rights abuser'
gettyimagesbank
A North Korean state media outlet on Monday denounced the United States as the "most heinous human rights abuser" for using human rights as a means to pressure other countries and realize its global dominance.
The Korean Central News Agency made the claim in an article written by a researcher on international affairs, adding that such U.S.' "hypocritical moves under the cloak of human rights" should be destroyed in order to build a free and prosperous new world.
"'Human rights' touted by the U.S. are nothing but a trick to easily realize its wild ambition for dominating the world," the KCNA said. "The U.S. is the most heinous human rights abuser in the world that severely disturbs the normal and peaceful development of sovereign states under the pretext of 'human rights.'"
"Unless the U.S. hypocritical moves under the cloak of human rights protection are smashed, it is impossible for each country to achieve its independent development and to build a free, prosperous and new world," it added.
The KCNA cited as examples for the U.S.' violations of human rights its decadeslong "blockade" on Cuba that has caused "trillion dollars of damage" to its people and attempt to hurt "China's political stability" by taking issue with Xinjiang and Hong Kong matters.
"No wonder, the U.S. abuses the 'human rights issues' for putting political pressure on the anti-imperialist independent countries," it said. "Now many countries resolutely stand against the U.S. human rights farce for curbing their development."
North Korea itself has been labeled one of the world's worst human rights violators, but Pyongyang has refuted the outside criticism, calling it a U.S.-led attempt to overthrow the regime. (Yonhap)
9. Living with a nuclear North Korea
I think resuming talks and negotiations with north Korea is a priority objective for the US. But I also think that providing concessions in the form of sanctions relief will only encourage tKim to double down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy because he will deem them successful when he extorts sanctions relief.
Not getting North Korea back to negotiations and accepting the status quo, while thinking sanctions and additional pressure will convince Kim to return to negotiations is wishful thinking. Sanctions and additional pressure will only encourage Kim to build more nuclear weapons and missiles. It will also encourage Kim to work more closely with China and Russia, who may be willing to defy United Nations (U.N.) sanctions and provide the North with the aid and trade needed for its survival.
It’s likely that without the resumption of negotiations, North Korea eventually will launch additional ballistic missiles, possibly to include an ICBM, with a likely seventh nuclear test. But even if North Korea refrains from such provocative acts, they will continue to build more Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium-based nuclear weapons, while continuing to test cruise missiles and other nuclear and missile enhancements, not prohibited by U.N. resolutions. And as North Korea continues down this escalatory path, inter-Korean relations will further deteriorate, with eventual reunification even more problematic.
Resuming bilateral or multilateral denuclearization talks with North Korea should be a priority objective for the U.S. and its allies.
Living with a nuclear North Korea
The U.S. needs to resume bilateral or multilateral denuclearization talks
ANALYSIS/OPINION:
If North Korea doesn’t return to negotiations, it’s fair to assume that the North will lock in its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile arsenals, making denuclearization unachievable and eventual reunification of the Korean Peninsula even more problematic.
Since the failed February 2019 Hanoi Summit of former President Donald Trump and North Korea Chairman Kim Jong-un, negotiations with North Korea have summarily ceased. During this 30-month period, North Korea reportedly has continued to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons, while enhancing its missile capabilities. The recent launches of two cruise missiles, capable – according to the North —of delivering a nuclear warhead, that successfully hit targets 1500 kilometers away, while flying for over two hours, was impressive. It represented an existential nuclear threat to the whole of Japan, and South Korea, and a challenge for existing missile defense systems. And the September 15 successful launches of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), from rail car launchers, was noteworthy. This, in addition to its road-mobile launches, will provide the North with an additional option to make detection of an imminent missile launch that much more challenging for any adversary.
Moreover, the North demonstrated movement toward a capability to eventually also launch Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), like the gigantic Hwasong 15 capable of targeting the whole of the U.S., from rail car launches, in addition to its more vulnerable fixed launch pads. And the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) recent discovery that the Yongbyon Plutonium nuclear reactor was reactivated is further proof that North Korea is producing more fissile material for nuclear weapons.
Getting North Korea back to the negotiation table should be a prime objective for the U.S and its allies and partners. A nuclear North Korea will encourage other countries in the region, like South Korea and Japan, to pursue its own nuclear weapons programs, despite extended nuclear deterrence commitments from the U.S. A nuclear North Korea also creates significant nuclear proliferation concerns, with the possibility that a nuclear weapon or fissile material for a dirty bomb will be sold or acquired by a rogue state or terrorist organization. We should never forget that North Korea sold nuclear technology and expertise to Syria, with Israel bombing the nuclear facility at Al Kibar in September 2007, just before it went operational.
It will take more than a stated willingness to meet with North Korea any time and any place to discuss denuclearization to get North Korea back to the negotiation table. A message to Kim Jong-un, delivered through the New York channel, or South Korea or China stating clearly, and with specifics, that the U.S. is prepared to discuss all issues with the North when they return to negotiations. The North knows we want to talk about complete and verifiable denuclearization, but they will need to hear that we’re prepared to discuss a road map that, in an action-for-action process, would include, as the North dismantles all nuclear weapons and facilities, the lifting of sanctions, a declaration to end the Korean War, a path to normal relations with the initial establishment of liaison offices in our respective capitals, the acknowledgment of their right to have nuclear technology for civilian energy purposes, when North Korea returns to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapons state; and a recognition of North Korea’s sovereign right to put a satellite in orbit.
To expect North Korea to walk away from its nuclear and missile arsenals and programs, which they view as a deterrent to ensure the survival of the Kim regime after the time and resources spent to establish these programs, will require a bold package of deliverables to convince Kim Jong-un that denuclearization will make North Korea more secure, and as a member of the international community, they will have access to international financial institutions for economic development purposes.
Not getting North Korea back to negotiations and accepting the status quo, while thinking sanctions and additional pressure will convince Kim to return to negotiations is wishful thinking. Sanctions and additional pressure will only encourage Kim to build more nuclear weapons and missiles. It will also encourage Kim to work more closely with China and Russia, who may be willing to defy United Nations (U.N.) sanctions and provide the North with the aid and trade needed for its survival.
It’s likely that without the resumption of negotiations, North Korea eventually will launch additional ballistic missiles, possibly to include an ICBM, with a likely seventh nuclear test. But even if North Korea refrains from such provocative acts, they will continue to build more Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium-based nuclear weapons, while continuing to test cruise missiles and other nuclear and missile enhancements, not prohibited by U.N. resolutions. And as North Korea continues down this escalatory path, inter-Korean relations will further deteriorate, with eventual reunification even more problematic.
Resuming bilateral or multilateral denuclearization talks with North Korea should be a priority objective for the U.S. and its allies.
• Joseph R. DeTrani was the former Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea (2003-2006) and the former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed in this publication are the author’s and do not imply endorsement of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence or any other U.S. government agency.
10. Over a dozen military parade participants rushed to hospital after showing signs of COVID-19
But the regime still reports no COVID cases.
Excerpts:
The Organization and Guidance Department reportedly took those involved to the proverbial woodshed. If somebody had collapsed due to fever during a military parade attended by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un himself, they said, it would have left “a great stain on history.”
They pressed, “It’s lucky that the parade was recorded. What would you have done if there’d been an incident during a live performance?”
Ultimately, five quarantine advisers with the Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Committee sent to the parade headquarters as a quarantine team were dismissed for alleged irresponsibility and ordered to perform unpaid labor as punishment.
Meanwhile, despite the enormity of suspected cases of COVID-19 emerging among the parade participants, the Central Committee has suspiciously kept rather silent about the “personal safety” of North Korea’s paramount leader.
“Usually, when something like this happens, they say an incident has taken place that could have brought serious harm to the personal safety or health of the Supreme Leader [Kim], but in this case, nothing of the sort has been said,” said the source. “So Pyongyang residents are saying this could be because the Supreme Leader and his cadres are all vaccinated.”
Over a dozen military parade participants rushed to hospital after showing signs of COVID-19 - Daily NK
Nonetheless, the Central Committee has suspiciously kept rather silent about the “personal safety” of North Korea’s paramount leader
Over a dozen university students who took part in the military parade to mark the 73rd anniversary of the founding of North Korea on Sept. 9 were recently rushed into ambulances after coming down with symptoms of COVID-19.
According to a Daily NK source in Pyongyang on Sept. 17, 16 students from Pyongyang’s Civil Defense University were taken to the hospital on Sept. 12 after showing signs of COVID-19 such as high fever, nausea and respiratory difficulties.
The students were in their 30s and 40s, and included both men and women.
Located in Pyongyang’s Ryongsong District, Civil Defense University trains commanders for North Korea’s paramilitary student reserve and civil defense force. Unlike most universities, its students are largely in their 30s or older with families of their own. Graduates are usually deployed as commanders to the student reserve or as guidance officers to the party’s civil defense force.
The students who displayed symptoms reportedly showed slight fevers from early September, prior to taking part in the parade.
The university was apparently aware of this even as they were rehearsing for the parade, but decided against reporting it to the parade’s commanders, concluding that the students were suffering mere colds brought on by forced practices in the rain.
The source said the university provided the students with cold medicine and made them take part in the parade. When the students came down with high fevers, nausea and breathing difficulties after the parade, however, the school reported the matter to the Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Committee on Sept. 12.
Soldiers at an event in Pyongyang for Party Foundation Day in 2016. / Image: Daily NK
“The Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Headquarters immediately mobilized ambulances from Hospital No. 1 and No. 2,” he said. “They put the students suspected of having COVID in the ambulances after dressing them in anti-contamination suits and anti-contamination masks, and took them outside of Pyongyang.”
He added, “We don’t know exactly where they took them, but it seems they were taken to the quarantine facility in Anju, South Pyongan Province.”
Afterwards, the Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Committee put the entire Civil Defense University under lockdown. All students, including those who took no part in the military parade, were banned from leaving their dormitories for 15 days.
Through its subordinate local committee in Ryongsong District, the Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Committee also immediately sent quarantine officials to the university to carry out large-scale disinfections of the school’s facilities.
The source further said the Central Committee upbraided the military parade’s commanders over the incident. In fact, the Central Committee’s Organization and Guidance Department apparently called in the parade’s commanders for a special internal review.
The Organization and Guidance Department reportedly took those involved to the proverbial woodshed. If somebody had collapsed due to fever during a military parade attended by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un himself, they said, it would have left “a great stain on history.”
They pressed, “It’s lucky that the parade was recorded. What would you have done if there’d been an incident during a live performance?”
Ultimately, five quarantine advisers with the Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Committee sent to the parade headquarters as a quarantine team were dismissed for alleged irresponsibility and ordered to perform unpaid labor as punishment.
Meanwhile, despite the enormity of suspected cases of COVID-19 emerging among the parade participants, the Central Committee has suspiciously kept rather silent about the “personal safety” of North Korea’s paramount leader.
“Usually, when something like this happens, they say an incident has taken place that could have brought serious harm to the personal safety or health of the Supreme Leader [Kim], but in this case, nothing of the sort has been said,” said the source. “So Pyongyang residents are saying this could be because the Supreme Leader and his cadres are all vaccinated.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
11. New prison camp in N. Pyongan Province is a political prison camp
Excerpts:
It is the third new political prison camp constructed in recent months. North Korea is apparently continuing to build new facilities as existing facilities fill up amid intensified efforts to crackdown on rule breakers.
...
The Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security operate separate systems of political prison camps.
If you are sent to a camp run by the Ministry of State Security, you are likely never getting out. At camps run by the Ministry of Social Security, however, model prisoners at least have the possibility of being released.
...
North Korea organized the “unified command on non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior” when it enacted the law to eradicate “reactionary” thought and culture. Most of the people caught by this organization have apparently been imprisoned.
New prison camp in N. Pyongan Province is a political prison camp - Daily NK
"Camp 27" holds fewer prisoners compared to camps in other regions
North Korea has reportedly built a new political prison camp in North Pyongan Province’s Pihyon County.
It is the third new political prison camp constructed in recent months. North Korea is apparently continuing to build new facilities as existing facilities fill up amid intensified efforts to crackdown on rule breakers.
US-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) had previously announced the existence of a facility presumed to be a labor camp in Pihyon County.
However, Daily NK has confirmed that the facility in question is not a labor camp, but a political prison camp. Given that the facility appears to have been there for several years, it appears North Korean authorities have recently changed how it is being used and the organization that manages it.
In a telephone conversation with Daily NK on Monday, a source in North Korea said the facility in Pihyon County is a political prison camp operated by the Ministry of Social Security, not a labor camp. He said that in North Korea the camp is called “Pihyon Political Prison Camp” or “Camp 27.”
The source said he understands that inmates of Camp 27 will likely suffer labor exploitation at the nearby Pihyon Brick Factory. The source further stated that the factory was originally run by a correctional labor brigade, but that management was transferred from the bureau of corrections to the bureau running the Ministry of Social Security’s political prison camps.
The Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security operate separate systems of political prison camps.
If you are sent to a camp run by the Ministry of State Security, you are likely never getting out. At camps run by the Ministry of Social Security, however, model prisoners at least have the possibility of being released.
HRNK discovered what it believes is a newly-established prison camp. / Image: Pulled from the report entitled: “North Korea’s Potential Long-Term Prison-Labor Facility at Sŏnhwa-dong”
Given the increasing number of camps run by the Ministry of Social Security, it appears a vastly growing number of people are being arrested for failing to abide by the North Korean government’s rules.
It is also worth noting that the new facility is in North Pyongan Province, where no political prison camp existed before. This is considered extraordinary as it runs counter to the “dying instructions” of late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung, who ordered that no political prison camps be built in the industrial regions of North Pyongan Province and Chagang Province.
However, Kim Jong Un’s government has reportedly decided that placing the growing number of political prisoners in existing facilities located in other provinces is causing many problems.
The source explained that the Ministry of State Security has “unavoidably” begun establishing political prison camps in North Pyongan Province to avoid putting an excessive concentration of prisoners in a handful of specific places.
North Korea built new political prison camps run by the Ministry of Social Security in Sungho-ri and Pyongsan County, North Hwanghae Province, last year and early this year.
The facilities can accommodate more than 20,000 inmates. However, it appears the country’s holding capacity is failing to keep up with the skyrocketing number of prisoners. Many of the prisoners at the Sungho-ri and Pyongsan County camps are there for infractions of COVID-19 quarantine protocols and violations of North Korea’s law against “reactionary” thought and culture. Likewise, the Pihyon County camp largely holds people picked up for “non-socialist” activities.
“Just because the camp is in North Pyongan Province doesn’t mean the prisoners are all from there,” said the source. “They were handed over after the completion of Ministry of State Security investigations and preliminary examinations by the unified command on non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior.”
North Korea organized the “unified command on non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior” when it enacted the law to eradicate “reactionary” thought and culture. Most of the people caught by this organization have apparently been imprisoned.
Moreover, Camp 27 reportedly holds fewer prisoners compared to camps in other regions. Satellite photos revealed by HRNK also indicate the camp is relatively small.
“The prison began with 520 male and female prisoners,” said the source. “Individual men and women, children, and entire families have been imprisoned there after being caught nationwide.”
North Korean political prison camps can hold anywhere from 19,000 to 56,000 prisoners. Camp 27, however, is considerably smaller in comparison and it appears unlikely that the facility can handle additional prisoners due to its small size.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
12. North Korea’s latest missile provocation isn't surprising at all – it was entirely predictable
We fail to pay attention to Professor Lee at our peril.
North Korea’s latest missile provocation isn't surprising at all – it was entirely predictable
Big Think · by Sung-Yoon Lee, Professor in Korean Studies, Tufts University
The firing off of two long-range missiles by North Korea shows that rather than being unpredictable, the isolationist state is quite the opposite.
Announced on Sept. 13, 2021, the testing of the cruise missiles – which reportedly can hit targets roughly 930 miles away (1,500 kilometers) – follows a well-worn playbook for North Korea: act belligerently, fire off missiles and then pivot to post-provocation peace mode and watch the concessions flow in. It was followed up by tit-for-tat missile testing on Sept. 15 by North and South Korea, further escalating tensions on the peninsula.
The concern for the international community now is that with some key North Korean anniversaries coming up – including Party Foundation Day on Oct. 10 – leader Kim Jong Un could mark the occasion by ratcheting up tensions further.
So why fire off the cruise missiles now? The short answer is, it was time. The last missile tests were on March 25, 2021. And North Korea, like all other states armed with missiles, periodically needs to test and upgrade its arsenal.
But again, such an apparent overture fits into a cycle. I noted in a tweet on Sept. 9 that the low-key parade might be a deliberate move, to be followed by a provocative act:
N Korea again chose nocturnal military hardware sales pitch. Guess it's cooler at night than during the day & the light shows are cool the #KimSibs must think. 5 years ago, #DPRK celebrated its B-Day w a nuke test. A nighttime parade followed by a provocation would befuddle many. pic.twitter.com/gT8ZIIm8gA
— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) September 8, 2021
And indeed the very next day, missile tests resumed.
The response by Washington has been muted. Meeting on Sept. 14, senior diplomats from Japan, the United States and South Korea called on North Korea to return to the negotiation table over its nuclear and missile program. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Sung Kim asked North Korea to “respond positively to our multiple offers to meet without preconditions.”
North Korea replied by firing two short-range ballistic missiles on Sept. 15, marking the 71st anniversary of the Inchon Landing, a pivotal event in the Korean War that changed the tide for both Koreas. The South replied by conducting an underwater missile launch.
For North Korea, the timing is ripe for a gradual escalation. The Biden administration is still reeling from the Afghanistan withdrawal, and history has shown that Pyongyang tends to raise tensions when it perceives military weakness.
And Pyongyang has been steadily putting pressure on the Biden administration to see how far it can push things. The International Atomic Energy Agency noted in August 2021 that North Korea had restarted the Yongbyon plutonium reactor, one North Korea agreed to shut down in 1994, 2008 and 2018.
As such, a major weapons test this fall should not be unexpected. It would fall into the pattern of alternatively playing nice, then acting belligerently, that has marked North Korea’s diplomatic routine for decades. And it is entirely predictable.
Big Think · by Sung-Yoon Lee, Professor in Korean Studies, Tufts University
13. North Korea says hope is alive for peace summit with South Korea
I think we need to give Kim Yo-jong the code name "Lucy with a football." We are setting ourselves up to get fooled again.
North Korea says hope is alive for peace summit with South Korea
CNN · by Story by Reuters
North Korea is willing to consider another summit with South Korea if mutual respect between the neighbors can be assured, state news agency KCNA said on Saturday, citing Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the North's leader Kim Jong Un.
South Korea welcomed the prospect on Sunday, with the Unification Ministry saying it expected to swiftly engage in talks with Pyongyang, while urging the need to restore a hotline link between the two.
Kim's comment came after the North urged the United States and South Korea last week to abandon what it called their hostile policy and double standards towards it, if formal talks are to be held on ending the 1950-53 Korean War.
North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons has complicated the question of a formal end to the war, which halted with an armistice, rather than a peace treaty, leaving US-led UN forces technically still at war with the North.
"I think that only when impartiality and the attitude of respecting each other are maintained, can there be smooth understanding between the north and the south," said Kim Yo Jong, who is a powerful confidante of her brother.
Read More
Images show North Korea expanding facility used to make weapons-grade uranium 02:24
Constructive discussions offer a chance for solutions on issues such as "the re-establishment of the north-south joint liaison office and the north-south summit, to say nothing of the timely declaration of the significant termination of the war", Kim said.
Speaking on Tuesday to the UN General Assembly, South Korean President Moon Jae-in had repeated a call for a formal end to the war, but later said time was running out for such progress before his term ends in May.
North Korea has sought an end to the war for decades, but the United States has been reluctant to agree, unless it gives up nuclear weapons.
In Saturday's remarks, Kim said she noted with interest the intense discussion in the South over the renewed prospect of a formal declaration.
"I felt that the atmosphere of the South Korean public desiring to recover the inter-Korean relations from a deadlock and achieve peaceful stability as soon as possible is irresistibly strong," she said. "We, too, have the same desire."
On Sunday, responding to the remarks, Seoul's unification ministry said in a statement, "For these discussions, the inter-Korean communication line must first be restored swiftly, as smooth and stable communication is important."
The hotline, maintained by South Korea's military to handle relations with Pyongyang, has not operated since August, as North Korea stopped answering calls.
Talks with the United States have been stalled since 2019, when expectations had grown for a declaration on ending the war, even if not an actual treaty, ahead of a historic summit of former US President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in Singapore.
But that possibility, and the momentum the leaders generated over three meetings, came to nothing.
In his own UN speech, US President Joe Biden said he wanted "sustained diplomacy" to resolve the crisis over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
North Korea has rejected US overtures on dialogue and the head of the UN atomic watchdog said this week its nuclear program was going "full steam ahead".
CNN · by Story by Reuters
14. Key takeaways from S. Korea’s missile tests
Excerpt:
According to Global Firepower’s index of most powerful armed forces this year, Seoul has a better conventional force than Pyongyang. The index puts South Korea at 6 and North Korea at 28 out of 140 countries. But the index did not factor into the North’s nuclear advantage.
Key takeaways from S. Korea’s missile tests
Key takeaways from S. Korea’s missile tests
Published : Sep 26, 2021 - 16:10
Updated : Sep 26, 2021 - 21:06
South Korea’s SLBM test. (Yonhap)
The recent missile tests President Moon Jae-in oversaw and praised marked a milestone that experts say shows a rapidly growing South Korean missile capability. Here are key takeaways on what it means for North Korea and foreign powers.
Fending off North Korea
South Korea is the first non-nuclear state to have tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile. SLBMs -- which have also been developed by China, France, India, Russia, the UK and the US -- are designed to deliver a fatal second strike from an undisclosed location in deep seas.
North Korea, which revealed the latest Pukguksong-5 series in January this year, has never publicly test-fired an SLBM from a submarine, though it tested the Pukguksong-3 in October 2019 from a submerged barge -- a test many see as a job half done.
Pyongyang is believed to be working on building a 4,000-ton submarine that could carry as many as six SLBMs, twice the number its Romeo class carries. But even the 3,000-ton Romeo has yet to be made public. It is unclear whether North Korean submarines could make a successful SLBM strike.
Meanwhile Seoul has just shown it can fire as many as six SLBMs from its homegrown submarine, the Dosan class. The 3,000-ton vessel is one of the nine submarines South Korea plans on building by the early 2030s, when Seoul expects to see bigger submarines carrying as many as 10 SLBMs.
Last week, the North openly discredited the South’s SLBM test, calling it primitive and not a threat, but Pyongyang is seen as anxious about Seoul getting ahead in the arms race. The South’s missiles cannot carry nuclear warheads but can reach anywhere in the North, including its underground missile bases.
Containing outside aggression
The supersonic cruise missiles South Korea tested alongside the SLBMs reinforce the message that it is ready to deal with the imminent threat from North Korea and other outside aggression.
The anti-ship missile could travel up to Mach 3, three times the speed of sound, and fly up to 500 kilometers, covering the entire Korean Peninsula and the seas surrounding it. North Korea is not believed to have the technology to counter supersonic missiles.
“The weapon is the most up to date cruise missile we have. This will be our core asset to contain outside aggression at our seas,” the Ministry of National Defense said.
“Some missiles are being made combat ready as we speak,” a military official said, without elaborating on details because of the sensitivity of the matter.
The military is planning to mount the missile on its homegrown fighter jet, known as the KF-21 Boramae, by the late 2020s. The jet’s prototype was unveiled in April and mass production will start as early as 2026.
Expanding missile program
South Korea, which until May was banned from building missiles with range greater than 800 kilometers because of a Korea-US missile pact, has more accurate short-range ballistic missiles than North Korea. Pyongyang’s forte lies in its medium and long-range missiles, which have a flight range of at least 800 kilometers.
Seoul could counter Pyongyang with its short-range missiles, which could reach any part of North Korea. But South Korea still needs more powerful short-range missiles to counter North Korea’s nuclear warheads, and longer-range missiles to deter farther foreign aggression.
The military has said it will make that happen in the next five years as part of its 315 trillion-won ($271 billion) plan to bolster defense readiness.
“We will see more lethal missiles -- including surface-to-surface and surface-to-air -- becoming operational. More accurate, long-range missiles capable of striking targets just right will be our new deterrence,” the Defense Ministry said.
According to Global Firepower’s index of most powerful armed forces this year, Seoul has a better conventional force than Pyongyang. The index puts South Korea at 6 and North Korea at 28 out of 140 countries. But the index did not factor into the North’s nuclear advantage.
15. North Korea’s overture on talks is a test: experts
Everything with north Korea is a test!
Excerpts:
On Saturday, Kim Yo-jong, who handles propaganda affairs as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, said the regime would be open to talks on conditions, in response to President Moon Jae-in’s call at the UN last week that the two Koreas, alongside the US and China, sign a declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War.
Ending the war has been the cornerstone of Moon’s peace initiative, though neither North Korea nor the US has been as receptive. Pyongyang and Washington have been preoccupied with setting terms to ease the North’s sanctions, which have crippled its economy.
“North Koreans say they are ready for talks if we drop the ‘double standards.’ They mean sanctions, like the ban on missile tests,” said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
North Korea’s overture on talks is a test: experts
North Korea’s overture on talks is a test: experts
Published : Sep 26, 2021 - 16:13
Updated : Sep 27, 2021 - 20:41
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (KCNA-Yonhap)
North Korea’s offer to reopen inter-Korean dialogue could be a test to see South Korea’s response and make it accountable for whatever actions Seoul takes in its dealings with Pyongyang later, experts said Sunday amid growing speculation for a thaw in ties.
On Saturday, Kim Yo-jong, who handles propaganda affairs as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, said the regime would be open to talks on conditions, in response to President Moon Jae-in’s call at the UN last week that the two Koreas, alongside the US and China, sign a declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War.
Ending the war has been the cornerstone of Moon’s peace initiative, though neither North Korea nor the US has been as receptive. Pyongyang and Washington have been preoccupied with setting terms to ease the North’s sanctions, which have crippled its economy.
“North Koreans say they are ready for talks if we drop the ‘double standards.’ They mean sanctions, like the ban on missile tests,” said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
North Korea, which under the UN Security Council resolutions is banned from developing or testing ballistic missiles, has slammed South Korea for its own missile tests that took place two weeks ago, when the two neighbors performed their tests hours apart.
Seoul, like Pyongyang, describes its missile tests as aimed at bolstering self-defense
Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, said Kim has a point in calling out South Korea on the missile double standards, noting the latest statement has more to do with testing the Moon administration, when President Moon has less than a year to leave office.
“The founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party is two weeks out. That means North Koreans could test missiles again and they want to, in a way, have South Korea boxed in its response,” Cheong said.
Pyongyang could blame Seoul for not honoring its promise to drop double standards if it denounces the missile test. And the North knows well the South cannot suddenly condone the UN-banned test, so either way Pyongyang has an upper hand, according to Cheong.
Cheong noted inter-Korean talks to either sign the end-of-war declaration or arrange a summit would not begin right away, even if Seoul were to drop the “double standards,” because Pyongyang said it would consider reopening them if conditions were met, but stopped short of promising to do so.
And one of the other conditions would also be hard to fulfill, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. He referred to “hostile policy,” which Pyongyang has demanded to be scrapped for a fresh start in frayed inter-Korean relations.
“‘Hostile policy’ is a term North Koreans use to variously refer to international sanctions,” Easley said, noting the US will not agree to sanctions relief unless North Korea shows progress first on its denuclearization
The US State Department said it supports diplomacy with North Korea, but reiterated the goal is complete denuclearization. Without a shift in Washington’s priority, Seoul will find it difficult to conclude the end-of-war declaration, Easley added.
Cheong said the two Koreas, the US and China need to work out their differences over inking the declaration, adding that the process will be exhausting if it is not productive.
Choi Kang, acting president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said even if the two Koreas were to jump at another Moon-Kim summit without signing a declaration, the meeting would be far short on details, as has been the case since 2018, when Moon and Kim met together for the first time.
“We’re at the eleventh hour of the Moon administration. We’ve seen little progress on denuclearization. There’s little evidence this time will be any different,” Choi said. A senior Cheong Wa Dae official said the government is looking closely at North Korea’s proposal and will carry on working for a thaw in tensions.
