Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Irregular war was far more intellectual than a bayonet charge, far more exhausting than service in the comfortable imitative obedience of an ordered army.”
- T.E. Lawrence

"A lost battle is a battle one thinks one has lost."
- Jean-Paul Sartre

"The most effective indirect approach is one that lures or startles the opponent into a false move -- so that, as in ju-jitsu, his own effort is turned into the lever of his overthrow."
-Sir Basil H. Liddel-Hart (Strategy, 1954)




1. N. Korean missile or nuclear test very possible during Biden's Asia trip: Sullivan
2. N. Korea reports 1 additional death amid COVID-19 outbreak
3. Defense chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss N.K. nuke, missile threats in phone call
4. N. Korea yet to fully develop hypersonic missile, but its testing raises concerns: U.S. official
5. North Korea likely to launch ICBM within 48 to 96 hours: US official
6. When Yoon meets Biden
7. US’ leadership’s approval jumps to 59% in S. Korea
8. Rethinking Sanctions Against North Korea: Strategic Shifts and their Implications
9. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup
10. North Korea has a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons — and seems willing to use them
11. USFK chief stresses need for 'unfettered access' to THAAD unit in S. Korea
12. Tea and infomercials: N. Korea fights COVID with few tools
13. The potential instability of a COVID-19 ravaged North Korea
14. US/South Korea: Promote Rights in North Korea
15. As Biden sets sights on Asia, new South Korea leader awaits with open arms
16. Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan
17. Analysis: South Korea and Japan just don't get along. That's a problem for Biden
18.  N.K. gauges timing for nuclear test after completing preparations: spy agency
19. NK leader unlikely to have received COVID-19 vaccine: spy agency



1. N. Korean missile or nuclear test very possible during Biden's Asia trip: Sullivan
Pretty long list of agenda items described below.

No DMZ trip. He has been there before and it is simply a photo op. It is better they spend more time in substantive discussions and meetings.

(3rd LD) N. Korean missile or nuclear test very possible during Biden's Asia trip: Sullivan | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 19, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more remarks from Sullivan, minor edits in paras 17-23)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, May 18 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is widely expected to stage a long-range or nuclear test before or even during President Joe Biden's trip to South Korea and Japan, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Wednesday.
He said the U.S. is fully prepared to make any necessary adjustments to U.S. defense posture to ensure the security of the U.S. and U.S allies.
"With respect to the issue of North Korea, we have said from this podium, we said at the state department and we have indicated in quite clear terms that our intelligence does reflect the genuine possibility that there will be either a further missile test, including long range missile test, or a nuclear test or frankly both in the days leading into on or after the president's trip to the region," Sullivan said in a press briefing at the White House.
"We are preparing for all contingencies, including the possibility that such a provocation would occur while we are in Korea or in Japan," he added.

Biden is set to embark on a trip to South Korea and Japan this week, beginning with a three-day visit to Seoul from Friday (Seoul time), followed by a three-day visit to Tokyo.
North Korea staged 16 rounds of missile launches this year, and the state department has said the recalcitrant country may be preparing to conduct a nuclear test as early as this month.
Pyongyang recently began reporting COVID-19 cases for the first time since the pandemic began over two years ago, prompting many to believe that the country may refrain from staging additional provocations, including a nuclear test, to prevent the spread of COVID.
However, State Department Press Secretary Ned Price said there was no "expectation" of any delays when asked Tuesday.
Sullivan reiterated that the U.S. is prepared for all possibilities.
"We are prepared, obviously, to make both short and longer-term adjustments to our military posture as necessary to ensure that we are providing both defense and deterrence to our allies in the region, and then we're responding to any North Korean provocation," he said.
The top security advisor said Biden's trip will highlight his commitment to U.S. alliances with the two countries, as well as to the entire region.
"He also intends to seize this moment, this pivotal moment to assert bold and confident American leadership in another vital region of the world, the Indo-Pacific," Sullivan said of the trip, which will mark Biden's first Asia tour since taking office in January 2021.
"On this trip, he (Biden) will have the opportunity to reaffirm and reinforce two vital security alliances, to deepen two vibrant economic partnerships, to work with two fellow democracies to shape the rules of the road for the 21st century," he added.
Officials in Seoul earlier said Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will hold a summit on Saturday (Seoul time). Yoon took office on May 10.
Sullivan said the two leaders will "consult on the challenge posed by the DPRK's nuclear and missile programs," referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Biden will also meet with technology and manufacturing leaders in South Korea, who are "mobilizing billions of dollars in investment here in the United States to create thousands of good paying American jobs," said Sullivan.
Biden also plans to meet with U.S. and South Korean troops while visiting Seoul.
He, however, has no plan to visit the demilitarized zone (DMZ), White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, despite earlier reports in Seoul that the U.S. president was considering a visit to the 38th parallel.
The DMZ is a 4-kilometer wide buffer zone between North and South Korea. Biden visited the highly fortified area in 2001 and 2013 as then chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee and vice president, respectively.
The U.S. currently maintains some 28,500 troops in South Korea.
Biden and Yoon are also expected to discuss Seoul's participation in the new U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which Sullivan said will be launched during Biden's visit to Tokyo.
The IPEF, Sullivan said, "is a 21st century economic arrangement, a new model designed to tackle new economic challenges from setting the rules of the digital economy to ensuring secure and resilient supply chains to managing the energy transition to investing in clean, modern high-standards Infrastructure."
Seoul officials have said Yoon will "virtually" attend the launch of the IPEF.
"We think this trip is going to put on full display President Biden's Indo-Pacific strategy, and that it will show in living color that the United States can, at once, lead the free world in responding to Russia's war in Ukraine, and at the same time chart a course for effective principled American leadership," said Sullivan.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 19, 2022


2. N. Korea reports 1 additional death amid COVID-19 outbreak

Very strange reporting. High number of cases but also high number of recoveries and few deaths.

Excerpts:
According to the information of the state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters, more than 262,270 people showed symptoms of fever and one death was reported over a 24-hour period until 6 p.m. Wednesday, increasing the total number of fatalities to 63, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
The total number of fever cases since late April in the country, with a population of around 25 million, stood at over 1.97 million as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, of which more than 1.23 million have fully recovered and at least 740,160 are being treated, it added.

(LEAD) N. Korea reports 1 additional death amid COVID-19 outbreak | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · May 19, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; ADDS photo, byline)
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, May 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea reported one additional death and over 260,000 new suspected COVID-19 cases Thursday, raising its total number of fever cases to nearly 2 million amid its battle with the virus outbreak.
According to the information of the state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters, more than 262,270 people showed symptoms of fever and one death was reported over a 24-hour period until 6 p.m. Wednesday, increasing the total number of fatalities to 63, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
The total number of fever cases since late April in the country, with a population of around 25 million, stood at over 1.97 million as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, of which more than 1.23 million have fully recovered and at least 740,160 are being treated, it added.
Last Thursday, the North reported its first COVID-19 case after claiming to be coronavirus-free for over two years and declared the implementation of the "maximum emergency" virus control system.
The country has made all-out efforts to fight the virus, such as mobilizing its military to supply medicine to pharmacies in Pyongyang earlier this week.
During a high-profile Workers' Party meeting held Tuesday, the North's leader Kim Jong-un rebuked officials for failing to respond properly to the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stages, and called for "redoubled efforts" to stabilize people's lives.
South Korea has attempted to formally offer to hold dialogue with its impoverished neighbor, known for its dilapidated medical system, to provide assistance, but the North has not responded so far.



(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · May 19, 2022


3. Defense chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss N.K. nuke, missile threats in phone call

We will hear these words many times in the next few days:
Austin reaffirmed the U.S.' "ironclad" security commitment to the defense of South Korea, the ministry added.
The U.S. Department of Defense later said Austin also reaffirmed the U.S.' commitment to providing extended deterrence.

(LEAD) Defense chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss N.K. nuke, missile threats in phone call | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 19, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with reports of a press release from U.S. Department of Defense, minor edits in paras 7-10; CHANGES dateline)
By Kang Yoon-seung, Byun Duk-kun
SEOUL/WASHINGTON, May 18 (Yonhap) -- The defense chiefs of South Korea and the United States held phone talks Wednesday to discuss North Korea's recent missile launches and its preparations for a possible nuclear test, Seoul's defense ministry said.
The talks between Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, came amid concerns about the possibility of North Korean provocations, including another long-range missile test. It was their first phone call since Lee took office a week ago.
"The minister and the secretary shared the view that the situation in and out of the region, including the Korean Peninsula, is grave, and that close cooperation between the South and the U.S. is more important than at any other time," the ministry said in a press release.
"They pointed out the North's series of ballistic missile launches and recent preparations for a nuclear test are provocative acts that heighten tension on the peninsula and in Northeast Asia and significantly threaten international peace and security, and they strongly condemned them," it added.
Lee used the talks to stress the importance of the deployment of America's strategic assets to the peninsula, as the two sides discussed ways to keep a "robust" combined defense posture to counter the North's threats, according to the ministry.
Austin reaffirmed the U.S.' "ironclad" security commitment to the defense of South Korea, the ministry added.
The U.S. Department of Defense later said Austin also reaffirmed the U.S.' commitment to providing extended deterrence.
"During the call, Secretary Austin congratulated Minister Lee on his appointment and underscored the U.S. commitment to defend the ROK through both the U.S.-ROK combined defense posture and the U.S. extended deterrent," it said in a press release, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
"Secretary Austin and Minister Lee exchanged views on the security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region and affirmed the importance of maintaining the international rules-based order," it added.
Lee highlighted South Korea's policy priority of strengthening the bilateral alliance in order to increase Seoul's role as a "global pivotal state" on strategic issues, including the war in Ukraine, according the defense ministry.
The talks came as the allies are preparing for a summit between Presidents Yoon Suk-yeol and Joe Biden, set to take place in Seoul on Saturday. Biden is scheduled to arrive here on Friday for a three-day stay.

colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 19, 2022


4. N. Korea yet to fully develop hypersonic missile, but its testing raises concerns: U.S. official
I wonder if upon reading this Kim Jong-un will order a hypersonic test to try to show us we are wrong.

N. Korea yet to fully develop hypersonic missile, but its testing raises concerns: U.S. official | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 19, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, May 18 (Yonhap) -- North Korea does not appear to have developed a hypersonic missile, but its tests to develop such a system warrant U.S. concerns, the head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said Wednesday.
North Korea claims to have successfully test launched a new hypersonic missile on Jan. 5 and Jan. 11 (Seoul time).
"They claim to have developed hypersonics," Vice Adm. John Hill said when asked if the North is developing hypersonic missiles in a hearing before the Senate Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.
"But in terms of what we have seen, in terms of data, I'm not entirely confident that they have that capability today, but the fact that they are testing it ought to be of concern," he added.

North Korea has staged 16 rounds of missile launches so far this year, including seven rounds in January alone that marked the largest number of missile tests it has conducted in any given month.
Pyongyang also conducted three intercontinental ballistic missile tests over the February and March period, ending its self-imposed moratorium on long-range ballistic missile testing that had been in place since November 2017.
Assistant Secretary of Defense John Plumb said North Korean missile capability posed an "increasing" threat to the United States and its allies, also noting most North Korean missiles are believed to be capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
"North Korea continues to improve, expand and diversify its conventional and nuclear missile capabilities, posing an increasing risk to the U.S. homeland and U.S. forces, allies and partners in the region," he said in a written testimony submitted to the Senate subcommittee.
"Most of North Korea's ballistic missiles have an assessed capability to carry nuclear payloads," the released statement said.
Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of the U.S. Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command, however, said the U.S. currently remains capable of defending its homeland and territories against North Korean missile threats.
"I'm comfortable with my capability to defend Hawaii against ballistic missiles from a rogue actor, such as North Korea today," he told the hearing.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 19, 2022


5. North Korea likely to launch ICBM within 48 to 96 hours: US official

That is a fairly specific estimate. The clock is running.

North Korea likely to launch ICBM within 48 to 96 hours: US official
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · May 18, 2022
Published : May 18, 2022 - 15:28 Updated : May 18, 2022 - 15:28
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a politburo meeting of the Worker’s Party at the headquarters of the party’s Central Committee in Pyongyang on Tuesday in this photo from the state-run Korean Central Television. (Yonhap)

North Korea appears to be preparing for a possible intercontinental ballistic missile test within the next 48 to 96 hours in time for US President Joe Biden’s visit to Seoul and Tokyo this weekend, CNN reported Wednesday.

An official familiar with the matter told CNN that a government assessment shows that “things we have noticed in the past for a launch are the things we are noticing now.”

While the official did not provide specific details on the latest satellite imagery they observed, he said that the launch site is located near Pyongyang.

The US official also said the US believes the previous ICBM launches by North Korea had failed, exploding shortly after launch.

The two ballistic missile tests on Feb. 26 and March 4 were also observed to involve a new type of ICBM currently being developed by Pyongyang, the official said.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff refrained from commenting on the potential ICBM launch nor on the past launches, but said its intelligence authorities are closely watching the situation together with the United States.

Biden is scheduled to depart for South Korea on Thursday (US time) and hold a summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol here on Saturday. He will then take off to Tokyo for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a US-led regional security forum that includes Australia, India and Japan.

So far, the North has conducted 16 rounds of test-firing its missiles, ICBMs that are assumed to be capable of hitting the mainland United States.

The reclusive regime also appears to be preparing for a seventh underground nuclear test at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, according to assessments from Korean and US intelligence agencies. If carried out, the nuclear test would be the first in nearly five years since the last test in 2017.
The North is currently suffering from an explosive spread of COVID-19 which is testing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s leadership.

Observers here say that Kim may push to continue with the possible nuclear test and missile launches as a way to boost his standing.

By Jo He-rim (herim@heraldcorp.com)


6. When Yoon meets Biden

Some good advice.

Excerpts:

Therefore, it is only natural that South Korea joins the group of countries, with which it shares the same values and ideals. It would not be right if we were reluctant to do it, or keep silent for economic reasons to international disruptions caused by totalitarian countries. Under any circumstances, we cannot trade our integrity and value judgment with monetary values. In fact, it is a matter of principle: We cannot turn our head and pretend we do not see it when a big country invades a small country, especially in the 21st century. Besides, if we want to be a global leader, we have to assume the entailing responsibility.

When President Yoon meets President Biden, he should remind the US president of the importance and strategic values of South Korea as an ally. Then, he and Biden could conjure up something the two countries could do together in the future, something mutually beneficial and something that can promote world peace. Moreover, they can discuss backup plans, just in case South Korea encounters economic difficulties by joining the US and its allies. In addition, Yoon should strongly urge Biden to reinstate the expired currency swap between the two countries, which will greatly help the Korean economy recuperate in times of financial crisis.

We hope the bilateral meeting is fruitful and rewarding. We also hope that the summit meeting shows the world the “rock-solid” alliance between South Korea and the US.

[Kim Seong-kon] When Yoon meets Biden
koreaherald.com · by Kim Seong-kon · May 16, 2022
Published : May 18, 2022 - 05:30 Updated : May 18, 2022 - 05:30
Within a few days, US President Joseph Biden is coming to Seoul to have a bilateral meeting with South Korea’s new leader, President Yoon Suk-yeol. It will be a great opportunity for the two presidents to strengthen the ties between the two countries. Indeed, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki announced, “This trip will advance the Biden-Harris administration’s rock-solid commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific and to US treaty alliances with the Republic of Korea and Japan.”

As multiple media sources have pointed out, Biden’s four-day trip to East Asia comes at a critical moment in his presidency, as he wishes to foster unity between the US and its allies in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Biden also seeks cooperation from South Korea and Japan for peacekeeping purposes in the Indo-Pacific area. Since Biden has a keen diplomatic sense and sensibility, we believe he will handle these issues skillfully.

The US president’s visit to Korea comes at a critical juncture for South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol, too, who is also seeking a stronger alliance with the US and Japan. In his inaugural speech, Yoon declared that he would correct the course of South Korea’s voyage toward liberal democracy, freedom and human rights. Yoon also emphasized the importance of intellectualism, common sense and anti-totalitarianism, in addition to valuing the market economy and free trade. In that sense, Biden’s visit to Korea will be an excellent opportunity for him to show the world where he is leading the Republic of Korea.

We all know that Trump and Moon were the worst partners ever. The readers of Mark Esper’s recent memoirs are appalled at the unnerving episodes during the Trump era. In “A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense during Extraordinary Times,” Esper reveals behind-the-scenes stories about the deteriorating relationship between South Korea and the United States during the Trump era. According to Esper, Trump seriously considered the complete withdrawal of the US troops from South Korea and almost shut down the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense base, too.

Suppose Donald Trump had won the US election in 2020, the Korean people would have suffered a nightmare landscape. The abovementioned two things would have definitely happened, considering his “outlandish” and reckless foreign policy, as Esper puts it in his memoirs. The possibility unnerves us. Fortunately, the Trump era is over now, and the two scary things did not happen. Otherwise, South Korea would have lost its indispensable ally and fallen victim to foreign aggressions, just like today’s Ukraine.

Just before Biden’s visit to South Korea, North Korea launched three missiles again, presumably to hinder the summit meeting between the US and the South. When Yoon meets Biden, therefore, he should urge the US president to make the denuclearization of North Korea a top priority, even though Biden is currently preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, Yoon could consult with Biden about South Korea’s options to protect herself from the North’s nuclear threats, such as the nuclear armament of the South or protection by the US nuclear umbrella.

At the same time, Yoon could assure Biden that South Korea would actively participate in the organizations aiming at keeping peace in the Indo-Pacific or Ukraine. It is an ally’s duty to work together in times of crisis. It would be shameful if we turned our back when America needs help, and yet expect her to help us when we are in trouble. A relationship is reciprocal. Besides, as a “developed country,” we have the obligation to help the needy, defend the right cause and contribute to world peace.

Therefore, it is only natural that South Korea joins the group of countries, with which it shares the same values and ideals. It would not be right if we were reluctant to do it, or keep silent for economic reasons to international disruptions caused by totalitarian countries. Under any circumstances, we cannot trade our integrity and value judgment with monetary values. In fact, it is a matter of principle: We cannot turn our head and pretend we do not see it when a big country invades a small country, especially in the 21st century. Besides, if we want to be a global leader, we have to assume the entailing responsibility.

When President Yoon meets President Biden, he should remind the US president of the importance and strategic values of South Korea as an ally. Then, he and Biden could conjure up something the two countries could do together in the future, something mutually beneficial and something that can promote world peace. Moreover, they can discuss backup plans, just in case South Korea encounters economic difficulties by joining the US and its allies. In addition, Yoon should strongly urge Biden to reinstate the expired currency swap between the two countries, which will greatly help the Korean economy recuperate in times of financial crisis.

We hope the bilateral meeting is fruitful and rewarding. We also hope that the summit meeting shows the world the “rock-solid” alliance between South Korea and the US.


Kim Seong-kon
Kim Seong-kon is a professor emeritus of English at Seoul National University and a visiting scholar at Dartmouth College. The views expressed here are his own. -- Ed.


7. US’ leadership’s approval jumps to 59% in S. Korea

Higher approval rating than at home.


[Interactive] US’ leadership’s approval jumps to 59% in S. Korea
koreaherald.com · by Nam Kyung-don · May 12, 2022
Published : May 14, 2022 - 10:01 Updated : May 14, 2022 - 10:01

The United States’ approval rating in South Korea jumped at one of the steepest rates among Asian countries in 2021, a poll showed.

The approval rating of US leadership in South Korea climbed to 59 percent last year from 30 percent a year earlier, according to Gallup.

The increase marks the second highest among 33 Asian countries where the poll was conducted between April 2021 and January 2022.

The median approval of US leadership in Asia was 41 percent.

The approval rate for US leadership in Laos increased from 4 percent in 2020 to 34 percent last year. The highest approval rating for US leadership was in the Philippines at 71 percent, said Gallup. (Yonhap)


By Nam Kyung-don (don@heraldcorp.com)


8. Rethinking Sanctions Against North Korea: Strategic Shifts and their Implications

Excerpts:

This article will focus on five theses:
  1. The United Nations (UN) Security Council will be less relevant; new sanctions will be mostly bilateral.
  2. Russia could use North Korea as a political tool against the US and its regional allies.
  3. China’s position will become even more decisive for the success or failure of sanctions.
  4. North Korea’s regional geopolitical power will increase.
  5. Sanctions evasion will become easier for North Korea.
...
In any case, it is very likely that the consequences of the Ukraine crisis will politically strengthen the current regime in Pyongyang and reduce current internal and external pressure on them to introduce economic reforms.
Rethinking Sanctions Against North Korea: Strategic Shifts and their Implications


Throughout the past two decades, many discussions and publications on current affairs in North Korea have had the theme of “sanctions” at their core. Regardless of whether the topic was denuclearization, regime stability, humanitarian assistance or economic reform, they inevitably arrived at a point when either lifting or tightening sanctions was suggested as a solution, or when sanctions were identified as being a major restraining factor for trade, investment or even humanitarian assistance. Apart from future-oriented debates, much of what has been observable in North Korea’s economic development and foreign policy has been interpreted through the lens of sanctions, with conclusions differing on whether things happened because of or despite them.
The seismic shift in international relations since Russia’s attack on Ukraine still needs to be understood in all its complexity. But already at this early point, it is very likely to require a substantial redesign of many North Korea-related debates—those related to sanctions in particular.
This article will focus on five theses:
  1. The United Nations (UN) Security Council will be less relevant; new sanctions will be mostly bilateral.
  2. Russia could use North Korea as a political tool against the US and its regional allies.
  3. China’s position will become even more decisive for the success or failure of sanctions.
  4. North Korea’s regional geopolitical power will increase.
  5. Sanctions evasion will become easier for North Korea.
The implications of these events are far-reaching if they were to become reality. Some will be discussed at the end of this article.
The UN Security Council Will be Less Relevant; New Sanctions Will be Mostly Bilateral
The term “sanctions” usually refers to what Baldwin defined as “negative sanctions,” and as “actual or threatened punishments.” In international relations, such punishments can be issued by either single or groups of states. The former is relatively easy and only requires one national authority—a leader or a collective, such as a parliament—to act. Getting groups of states to agree on sanctions is more complicated, and becomes harder the larger and more diverse the group is. It is a matter of definition as to whether sanctions issued by a handful of allies are seen as truly multilateral, or only as a sum of similar bilateral sanctions. However, multilateral sanctions, in a broader sense, are typically issued in the name of the international community and require authorization by a formal institution or an international organization.
In the case of North Korea, this role has been played by the UN Security Council (UNSC), which, despite urgent demands for reform, has been described as: “the international community’s principal organ for peacekeeping and conflict management.” As of May 2022, the UNSC has unanimously passed a total of nine major sanctions resolutions against North Korea since 2006, the year of the country’s first nuclear test.
This unanimity has been remarkable. In the past two decades, neither Russia nor China, both permanent members of the UNSC, have exercised their right to veto sanctions resolutions against North Korea. However, this exceptional situation might come to a sooner-than-expected end.
At least one of the so-called “P5” is likely to exercise its right to veto more actively going forward. As a result of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has become the subject of diplomatic isolation and massive economic sanctions, while the US is openly providing military support to Kyiv. The US and Russia are now foes again. As such, it is highly unlikely that Moscow will continue to provide a multilateral blessing to what has essentially been a bilateral US policy. In case Pyongyang decides to conduct a nuclear test or any other action that Washington regards as a provocation, it is quite probable that Russia will not just abstain, but go a step further and actively veto any new UNSC sanctions resolution against North Korea.
Russia Could Use North Korea as a Political Tool Against the US and its Regional Allies
In addition to vetoing UNSC sanctions resolutions, it is possible that Russia will try to use North Korea more actively to challenge the US in East Asia. American troops, missile defense systems and intelligence installations in South Korea and Japan are close to strategic Russian assets in the country’s Far East region. North Korean demands for troop withdrawal from South Korea or for the cancellation of US-ROK joint military exercises will receive more backing from Moscow than has previously been the case.
Moreover, Russia could try to use open support of the regime in Pyongyang as a way to offer itself as an alternative ally to other countries that feel challenged by the United States, thus essentially returning to a policy of camp creation that occurred during the Cold War. Even the return and expansion of joint military maneuvers between Russian and North Korean militaries are not .
Informal discussions that the author had with Russian experts in April 2022 implied that Moscow is still opposed to a nuclear North Korea. This could potentially destabilize the region and could theoretically pose a military threat to Russia. It could also trigger a nuclear arms race that in the end would equip Russia’s rivals, such as Japan, with nuclear weapons. Furthermore, from a global perspective, a nuclear North Korea could challenge Russia’s privileged position as one of the very few members of the nuclear club. However, considering the many unexpected decisions made by Moscow recently, and assuming that the North Korean nuclear program is not at the top of President Putin’s current list of priorities, it cannot be assumed that Russia will oppose Pyongyang’s ambitions too energetically.
China’s Position Will Become Even More Decisive for the Success or Failure of Sanctions
Probably the most significant among the currently unknown consequences of the Ukraine invasion is the position that China will take towards North Korea sanctions. In the past years, the seriousness of China’s commitment to implementing sanctions against North Korea has been frequently discussed. However, Beijing has, like Moscow, so far refrained from disregarding and violating UNSC sanctions openly and officially.
It is well possible that this restraint will be maintained for the time being, as China will see no need to unnecessarily expose itself to international criticism now that international and US attention is conveniently focused on Russia. However, there is little reason to expect that what Deng Xiaoping called “hide your strength and bide your time” will continue forever. Especially since the emergence of Xi Jinping as China’s leader, predictions about an end to that policy have become frequent. Hence, it is not unthinkable that strategists in Beijing will decide that with international attention focused elsewhere, now might be a good time to take the next step. If this is the case, Beijing will openly support Russia in its confrontation with the US, criticize Washington for its imperial ambitions and efforts at destabilizing East Asia, and relinquish its tacit support for North Korean sanctions.
Such a decision would have a huge effect even if Russia had already decided not to abide by UNSC sanctions resolutions against North Korea. Russia shares less than 20 kilometers of a direct land border with North Korea. It only has one modernized railway line leading into the North Korean city and Special Economic Zone of Rasŏn, and a ship from Vladivostok must travel approximately 200 kilometers to reach the port there. Under these conditions, Russia could indeed easily become an important supplier of resources as well as military technology and hardware, and it could significantly reduce the current economic pressure on the regime in Pyongyang, but it would not be able to give North Korea all it needs.
China’s potential, however, is much larger. China shares more than 1,200 km of land border with North Korea, with many bridges and roads having been modernized in the past years, including those between Dandong and Sinŭiju, Tumen and Namyang, and Hunchun and Rasŏn. It has a railway line connecting Beijing and Pyongyang, and the northern part of the Yellow Sea is an inland sea for both countries. China could absorb almost any quantity of North Korean exports and excess labor, and cover all needs for finance, high-tech inputs, producer goods, consumer goods, and technology.
Therefore, while Russia’s potential as an economic partner is limited, North Korea having China openly on its side would mean no more worries about by third countries.
North Korea’s Regional Geopolitical Power Will Increase
North Korea’s strong economic dependency on China is not a new phenomenon. In fact, China’s share in North Korea’s foreign trade had surpassed 80 percent already in 2010 .[1] This reality obviously contradicts the autarky goals of Pyongyang’s leadership. It could be argued that the new situation described above would even increase this dependency and thereby further limit the scope of North Korea’s actions.
However, past experience suggests that this will not necessarily be the case. North Korea could, on the contrary, emerge as a very decisive player with significant leeway for action, reminding of what Oscar Wilde, albeit in a different context, famously called “tyranny of the weak over the strong.” The Sino-Soviet rivalry of the late 1950s is only one such example. Until the age of perestroika and glasnost began in the 1980s, Pyongyang had been able to keep the influence of its socialist partners at bay, and avoided joining both the military alliance of the Warsaw Pact and the Comecon economic alliance while it managed to benefit especially from the latter . What is more, Kim Il Sung made his allies support policies that they actually disagreed with.[2]
As a de facto nuclear power, North Korea will find it even easier this time to maximize the benefits that come from being part of an alliance with China and Russia. And once again, it will keep its own contributions and commitment to a minimum.
Moreover, North Korea’s power in bilateral relations with its major opponents, such as South Korea, Japan and the United States, will increase significantly if it has to be treated as a member of a camp. In this context, the practical meaning—whether a military conflict with North Korea will trigger a war with China and Russia—of the two friendship agreements that concluded in 1961 will have to be re-evaluated even further than was done after the renewal of North Korea’s friendship treaty with China in 2021.
As a result, it will become harder for the West to coerce Pyongyang. In addition to this, a more proactive policy by North Korea that includes military and diplomatic initiatives can be expected.
Sanctions Evasion Will Become Easier for North Korea
In light of what has been mentioned above, the evasion of sanctions will not be much of a concern for North Korea anymore. With Russia and China on its side, it will not need imports from countries that might still be willing to abide by UNSC resolutions, and it will not need these countries as markets for its exports. However, even if such a need arose, re-routing trade through any of the two allies would pose much less of a challenge than arranging direct illegal transfers. The same applies to access to financial resources for investments or payments, which had once hit a nerve in Pyongyang, as demonstrated by the 2005 Banco Delta Asia (BDA) case.
Open Questions and Implications
We are far away from fully understanding the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially since that process is still ongoing, and a new equilibrium has not been reached yet. A final evaluation of the impact of the new realities is therefore not possible yet.
It is also far from certain that Russia will retain its current status as a pariah state forever. Once the conflict in Ukraine has been settled one way or the other, Moscow will try to restore its damaged relationship with the West. If that happens, North Korea might become a bargaining chip, and Russia could offer to join the international sanctions regime again. The North Koreans haven’t forgotten what they regard as Moscow’s betrayal in the early 1990s, when Russia, just like China, established diplomatic relations with South Korea and stopped delivering key goods, including oil, at the previous favorable conditions. Especially Soviet oil had for decades been a key input for North Korea’s agriculture and its sudden unavailability was a major contributor to the famine of the mid-1990s.[3]
For that reason, it is likely that analysts in Pyongyang will, despite many new opportunities, suggest a cautious approach to their leadership. Past experience suggests that North Korea will try to reap as many short-term benefits as possible, and try to avoid making long-term commitments.
If the five points as discussed above indeed become reality, North Korea’s opponents including South Korea, Japan and the United States would need to acknowledge that multilateral sanctions have de facto become obsolete. This will not be an easy step, but it will be necessary to enable them to develop alternative policies to realize their goals.
The field of North Korean studies must be ready to react to this demand, and should better sooner rather than later focus on designing and discussing alternative policies in the absence of multilateral sanctions. New ways for achieving a set of objectives that remain largely unchanged have to be found. Depending on the respective players and their preferences, this includes improving the humanitarian and human rights situation in North Korea, regional stability, peace and security, and, eventually, a reunified Korea.
North Korean strategists, too, will be busy evaluating the new situation and its consequences, and will be developing ideas for how their leadership could best react. This process will not be open to the public, but its outcomes will be. Thus, it is worth watching for related announcements by the leader at major events, and to interpret North Korean actions in the military, diplomatic and economic fields as indicators of possible new strategic decisions.
In any case, it is very likely that the consequences of the Ukraine crisis will politically strengthen the current regime in Pyongyang and reduce current internal and external pressure on them to introduce economic reforms.
  1. [1]
Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency,“2010 북한의 대외무역동향“, KOTRA, 2011.
  1. [2]
A case in point is the Juche (Chuch’e) ideology. Its openly nationalist spirit was not compatible with orthodox Marxist-Leninist class-based ideas of world revolution. Nevertheless, critical research, including that by a leading North Korea analyst at East Berlin’s Humboldt-University, were kept confidential (based on conversations of the author with Professor Helga Picht). Succession of Kim Il Sung by his son Kim Jong Il, announced in 1980, had also been seen very skeptically by key socialist partners, but led to no consequences.
  1. [3]
Hazel Smith, “Hungry for Peace: International Security, Humanitarian Assistance, and Social Change in North Korea. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2005.
9. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup

"Ironclad"
"Fight tonight"

Excerpt:

Both sides agreed to enhance trilateral cooperation with Japan and broader cooperation in the region between the U.S. and ROK governments. Secretary Austin also thanked Minister Lee for continued ROK support to Ukraine.

Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup
Immediate Release
May 18, 2022

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Republic of Korea (ROK) Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup today. Secretary Austin reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK. The two leaders committed to maintaining “fight tonight” readiness and close cooperation in the face of continued provocative actions by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
During the call, Secretary Austin congratulated Minister Lee on his appointment and underscored the U.S. commitment to defend the ROK through both the U.S.-ROK combined defense posture and the U.S. extended deterrent.
Secretary Austin and Minister Lee exchanged views on the security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region and affirmed the importance of maintaining the international rules-based order.
Both sides agreed to enhance trilateral cooperation with Japan and broader cooperation in the region between the U.S. and ROK governments. Secretary Austin also thanked Minister Lee for continued ROK support to Ukraine.

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10. North Korea has a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons — and seems willing to use them

I am heartened to read more reports of people discussing KimJong-un's intent and objectives. You would not be reading these kinds of statements a month ago in Korea.

Excerpts:
JEON KYONG-JOO: (Through interpreter) The credibility of the threat due to their capabilities has increased in tandem with the credibility of their intentions.
KUHN: Jeon believes the likelihood of Kim actually using his nukes is very low unless he thinks he faces a conflict with U.S. and South Korean forces, which have an advantage in conventional arms. She says Pyongyang's ultimate goal remains to unify the peninsula under its own rule.
JEON: (Through interpreter) It remains a very important goal and one that must be achieved over the very long term. But they must think that recognition as a nuclear state is a necessary first step towards that goal.
North Korea has a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons — and seems willing to use them
NPR · by Anthony Kuhn · May 18, 2022
President Biden heads to South Korea this week after a spate of North Korean missile tests. Seoul and Washington are alarmed by Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal and their apparent willingness to use it.
MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
As President Biden heads to South Korea and Japan this week, officials in Seoul say a long-range missile test by North Korea could come soon. Pyongyang has already conducted 16 tests so far this year. But as NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports from Seoul, it is not just North Korea's growing arsenal of nuclear weapons that is giving foreign governments pause. It's the North's apparent willingness to use them.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: North Korea's latest missiles mounted on trucks rolled through Pyongyang's Kim Il sung Square last month in a military parade. Leader Kim Jong un, wearing a white uniform, addressed the event.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN: (Speaking Korean).
KUHN: The basic mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war, he said. But our nuclear weapons can never be limited to the sole mission of deterring war. If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, he added, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish their unexpected second mission. Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Ewha Women's University in Seoul, says that based on North Korea's previous statements, those interests could include all sorts of things.
PARK WON-GON: The vital national interest for North Korea includes raising the question about these North Korea's human rights violations and even the sanction on North Korea.
KUHN: Kim Jong un's remarks suggest a shift away from his previous pledges not to use his nukes first. The U.S. does not rule out first use, either. North Korea is building both short-range nuclear weapons to target U.S. and South Korean forces in Asia and long-range ones to threaten the U.S. mainland. Kim's sister, Kim Yo jong, who is also a powerful official, added last month that Pyongyang could use these nukes not as a last resort but at the beginning of a conflict to demoralize the enemy or simply to conserve the North's military strength. Jeon Kyong-joo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, a government think tank in Seoul, says Kim Yo jong's words shed new light on Pyongyang's strategy.
JEON KYONG-JOO: (Through interpreter) The credibility of the threat due to their capabilities has increased in tandem with the credibility of their intentions.
KUHN: Jeon believes the likelihood of Kim actually using his nukes is very low unless he thinks he faces a conflict with U.S. and South Korean forces, which have an advantage in conventional arms. She says Pyongyang's ultimate goal remains to unify the peninsula under its own rule.
JEON: (Through interpreter) It remains a very important goal and one that must be achieved over the very long term. But they must think that recognition as a nuclear state is a necessary first step towards that goal.
KUHN: While South Korea does not have nuclear weapons, it has plenty of missiles, some of which may be aimed right at Kim Jong un.
JEFFREY LEWIS: South Korea has been very clear that the intention of this force is to decapitate the North Korean leadership in a crisis, which is incredibly escalatory.
KUHN: Jeffrey Lewis is an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif.
LEWIS: So you have a situation where the parties to the conflict, South Korea and North Korea, both think that they are going to go first, and one of them is wrong about that. That's very destabilizing.
KUHN: North Korea's missile and nuclear tests will be high on the agenda of President Biden's summit meeting with President Yoon Suk-yeol. Seoul says it even has a contingency plan ready in case the North conducts any tests during the summit. Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Seoul.
(SOUNDBITE OF BLOCKHEAD'S "FAREWELL SPACEMAN")
NPR · by Anthony Kuhn · May 18, 2022

11.  USFK chief stresses need for 'unfettered access' to THAAD unit in S. Korea
This needs to be fixed. The last administration said they would. Hopefully the Yoon administration will take this issue seriously. 

USFK chief stresses need for 'unfettered access' to THAAD unit in S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 18, 2022
SEOUL, May 18 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Gen. Paul LaCamera has called for "unfettered" access to its THAAD missile defense unit here, stressing its absence would undermine the alliance's ability to defend South Korea.
In a written statement to the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense this week, LaCamera made the call, as access to the unit in the southern county of Seongju remains impeded by a set of obstacles, including protesters against the installation of the battery.
Since the unit was placed in Seongju in 2017, it has had the status of a "temporary installation" pending South Korea's environmental impact assessment -- another hindrance to its full-capacity operation.
"Despite significant progress in increasing access to the site over the last year, unfettered access is required to fully ensure logistical support at the site and improve the quality of life for service members stationed there," LaCamera said.
"Limited access also slows the pace of construction projects on-site, which is critical for maintaining the system's capabilities, crew training and upgrades. All of this hinders the alliance's ability to operate this defensive system and defend the ROK people," he added. ROK stands for the South's official name, Republic of Korea.
The commander also pointed out the North's continued push to enhance missile capabilities to put the South, the United States and Japan "at risk."
"The DPRK continues to pursue capabilities to hold our Korean and Japanese allies at risk with short- and medium-range missiles, hold U.S. strategic bases within the region at risk with intermediate range missiles and hold at risk the U.S. with its intercontinental ballistic missile program," he said.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Touching on the North's launch of an "unprecedented amount of missiles" since January, LaCamera stressed, "We must assume that some of these systems are likely intended to be nuclear capable."

sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 18, 2022


12. Tea and infomercials: N. Korea fights COVID with few tools

It could be a very dire situation in the north.

Excerpts:

“If you are sick in North Korea, we often say you will die,” Choi said.

Despite the outbreak, North Korea hasn’t publicly responded to South Korean and U.S. offers of medical aid. World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that the world body “is deeply concerned at the risk of further spread” in North Korea and the lack of information about the outbreak.

Choi Jung Hun, a former North Korean doctor who resettled in South Korea, suspects North Korea is using its pandemic response as a tool to promote Kim’s image as a leader who cares about the public and to solidify internal unity. He says the country’s understated fatalities could also be exploited as a propaganda tool.

“One day, they’ll say they’ve contained COVID-19. By comparing its death toll with that of the U.S. and South Korea, they’ll say they’ve done a really good job and their anti-epidemic system is the world’s best,” said Choi, now a researcher at a Korea University-affiliated institute in South Korea.

Tea and infomercials: N. Korea fights COVID with few tools
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · May 19, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — On a recent nighttime visit to a drugstore, a double-masked Kim Jong Un lamented the slow delivery of medicine. Separately, the North Korean leader’s lieutenants have quarantined hundreds of thousands of suspected COVID-19 patients and urged people with mild symptoms to take willow leaf or honeysuckle tea.
Despite what the North’s propaganda is describing as an all-out effort, the fear is palpable among citizens, according to defectors in South Korea with contacts in the North, and some outside observers worry the outbreak may get much worse, with much of an impoverished, unvaccinated population left without enough hospital care and struggling to afford even simple medicine.
“North Koreans know so many people around the world have died because of COVID-19, so they have fear that some of them could die, too,” said Kang Mi-jin, a North Korean defector, citing her phone calls with contacts in the northern North Korean city of Hyesan. She said people who can afford it are buying traditional medicine to deal with their anxieties.
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Since admitting what it called its first domestic COVID-19 outbreak one week ago, North Korea has been fighting to handle a soaring health crisis that has intensified public anxiety over a virus it previously claimed to have kept at bay.
The country’s pandemic response appears largely focused on isolating suspected patients. That may be all it can really do, as it lacks vaccines, antiviral pills, intensive care units and other medical assets that ensured millions of sick people in other countries survived.
North Korean health authorities said Thursday that a fast-spreading fever has killed 63 people and sickened about 2 million others since late April, while about 740,000 remain quarantined. Earlier this week, North Korea said its total COVID-19 caseload stood at 168 despite rising fever cases. Many foreign experts doubt the figures and believe the scale of the outbreak is being underreported to prevent public unrest that could hurt Kim’s leadership.
State media said a million public workers were mobilized to identify suspected patients. Kim Jong Un also ordered army medics deployed to support the delivery of medicines to pharmacies, just before he visited drugstores in Pyongyang at dawn Sunday.
North Korea also uses state media outlets — newspapers, state TV and radio — to offer tips on how to deal with the virus to citizens, most of whom have no access to the internet and foreign news.
“It is crucial that we find every person with fever symptoms so that they can be isolated and treated, to fundamentally block the spaces where the infectious disease could spread,” Ryu Yong Chol, an official at Pyongyang’s anti-virus headquarters, said on state TV Wednesday.
State TV aired infomercials showing animated characters advising people to see doctors if they have breathing problems, spit up blood or faint. They also explain what medicines patients can take, including home remedies such as honey tea. The country’s main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, advised people with mild symptoms to brew 4 to 5 grams of willow or honeysuckle leaves in hot water and drink that three times a day.
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“Their guidelines don’t make a sense at all. It’s like the government is asking people to contact doctors only if they have breathing difficulties, which means just before they die,” said former North Korean agriculture official Cho Chung Hui, who fled to South Korea in 2011. “My heart aches when I think about my brother and sister in North Korea and their suffering.”
Kang, who runs a company analyzing the North Korean economy, said her contacts in Hyesan told her that North Korean residents are being asked to thoroughly read Rodong Sinmun’s reports on how the country is working to stem the outbreak.
Since May 12, North Korea has banned travel between regions, but it hasn’t attempted to impose more severe lockdowns in imitation of China. North Korea’s economy is fragile due to pandemic border closures and decades of mismanagement, so the country has encouraged farming, construction and other industrial activities be accelerated. Kang said people in Hyesan still go to work.
The office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed worry this week about the consequences of North Korea’s quarantine measures, saying isolation and traveling restrictions will have dire consequences for people already struggling to meet their basic needs, including getting enough food to eat.
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“Children, lactating mothers, older people, the homeless and those living in more isolated rural and border areas are especially vulnerable,” the office said in a statement.
Defectors in South Korea say they worry about their loved ones in North Korea. They also suspect COVID-19 had already spread to North Korea even before its formal admission of the outbreak.
“My father and sibling are still in North Korea and I’m worrying about them a lot because they weren’t inoculated and there aren’t many medicines there,” said Kang Na-ra, who fled to South Korea in late 2014. She said a sibling told her during recent phone calls that their grandmother died of pneumonia, which she believes was caused by COVID-19, last September.
Defector Choi Song-juk said that when her farmer sister in North Korea last called her in February, she said that her daughter and many neighbors had been sick with coronavirus-like symptoms such as a high fever, coughing and sore throat. Choi said her sister pays brokers to arrange phone calls, but she hasn’t called recently, even though it’s around the time of year when she runs short of food and needs money transfers via a network of brokers. Choi said the disconnection is likely related to anti-virus restrictions on movements.
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“I feel so sad. I must connect with her again because she must be without food and picking wild greens,” said Choi, who left North Korea in 2015.
In recent years, Kim Jong Un has built some modern hospitals and improved medical systems, but critics say it’s mostly for the country’s ruling elite and that the free socialist medical service is in shambles. Recent defectors say there are lots of domestically produced drugs at markets now but they have quality issues so people prefer South Korean, Chinese and Russian medicines. But foreign medications are typically expensive, so poor people, who are a majority of the North’s population, cannot afford them.
“If you are sick in North Korea, we often say you will die,” Choi said.
Despite the outbreak, North Korea hasn’t publicly responded to South Korean and U.S. offers of medical aid. World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that the world body “is deeply concerned at the risk of further spread” in North Korea and the lack of information about the outbreak.
Choi Jung Hun, a former North Korean doctor who resettled in South Korea, suspects North Korea is using its pandemic response as a tool to promote Kim’s image as a leader who cares about the public and to solidify internal unity. He says the country’s understated fatalities could also be exploited as a propaganda tool.
“One day, they’ll say they’ve contained COVID-19. By comparing its death toll with that of the U.S. and South Korea, they’ll say they’ve done a really good job and their anti-epidemic system is the world’s best,” said Choi, now a researcher at a Korea University-affiliated institute in South Korea.
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · May 19, 2022


13. The potential instability of a COVID-19 ravaged North Korea

Comparisons to the Arduous March of 1994-1996 are apt. BUt the conditions today are much worse both due to COVID and and Kim's policy decisions to implement draconian population resources and control measures in the name of COVID but actually to further oppress the Korean people in the north to stem any possibility of resistance. And there will not be the safety valve of the Sunshine Policy and the relief mechanisms of the markets are affected by the COVID mitigation measures.

We need to observe for the indications and warnings of instability.
The potential instability of a COVID-19 ravaged North Korea
washingtontimes.com · by The Washington Times https://www.washingtontimes.com

OPINION:
From 1994 to 1998, between 1 and 3 million North Koreans reportedly died due to starvation, during a period known as the “arduous march.” Floods and droughts contributed to widespread starvation in a country of 22 million people. Government mismanagement of its public distribution system and systemic problems in the agricultural sector also contributed to this tragic loss of life.
In 1994 North Korea had just signed an agreement with the United States — the Agreed Framework — that halted the production of plutonium for nuclear weapons at its Yongbyon nuclear facility, in return for the construction of two Light Water Reactors — for civilian nuclear energy — in Kumho, North Korea. The Agreed Framework was successful in halting North Korea’s nascent nuclear weapons program until October 2002, when North Korea admitted to a visiting U.S. delegation that they had a covert program to enrich uranium.
In 2022, North Korea is a de facto nuclear weapons state, reportedly with 40 to 60 nuclear weapons that can be mated to ballistic missiles that can reach South Korea, Japan and the United States.
When the COVID-19 pandemic got the attention of the international community in January 2020, North Korea immediately closed its 880-mile border with China and isolated the country from the outside world. All trade, economic and diplomatic contacts were halted, with North Korea claiming that there were no cases of COVID-19 in the country. North Korea rejected the United Nations offer to provide 3 million doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine and the Astra Zeneca vaccine, with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, reportedly saying vaccines weren’t necessary because the North had no cases of the virus.
On May 12, 2022, North Korea’s state media announced that 350,000 people were affected by an “obscure febrile disease,” with follow-on media pronouncements that 1.2 million people were affected and 560,000 were in quarantine with 50 deaths, stating clearly that this was a major national emergency. North Korean media reporting cited Mr. Kim’s emergency Politburo meeting on May 15 and the criticism of his cabinet and public health officials for “their irresponsible work attitude and organizing and executing ability.”

The situation in North Korea must be dire, given these recent public statements from Mr. Kim and state media. The outside world had a glimpse of these developments, however, when the Korean media in April 2021 reported that Mr. Kim, at a Korean Workers’ Party event, spoke about the need for North Korea to prepare to “wage another arduous march,” as the country encounters future difficulties.
Given this concern one year ago, it’s possible the April 25, 2022, military parade, on the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean people’s Revolutionary Army, that proudly displayed the North’s Hwasong-17 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile and other military hardware Mr. Kim wanted to display to his own people and the international community, contributed to spreading the coronavirus.
The U.N. recently reported that 42% of the Korean people are undernourished due to food insecurity. That’s a concerning statistic, especially in a country with a weak health care system that’s currently experiencing food shortages due mainly to drought and biting sanctions. The challenge for Mr. Kim will be his ability to address the spread of the virus and reports of pockets of starvation while, also, continuing to enhance his nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
South Korea’s recently elected President Yoon Suk-yeol announced on May 16, in a speech at the National Assembly, that his government is prepared to provide North Korea with COVID-19 vaccines, medical equipment and health personnel, to help the North in its battle with the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Mr. Yoon said this and other related issues will be discussed with President Biden when he visits Seoul on May 21.
Given their close allied relationship, it’s logical to assume that Mr. Kim has reached out to China for medical assistance to address the spread of the coronavirus in North Korea. Indeed, the North is in dire need of COVID-19 vaccines and medical supplies, in addition to food aid — rice, wheat, potatoes and soybeans. This comes at a difficult time for China where COVID-19 has reemerged and resulted in the lockdown in Shanghai and other cities, adversely affecting the economy in a profound way.
Providing North Korea with the humanitarian assistance that reaches the people in need, in a country with a population of 25 million, is a moral imperative.
Hopefully, Mr. Kim will refrain from additional missile launches and an expected seventh nuclear test as the leaders in China, South Korea and the United States, bilaterally and at the United Nations Security Council discuss issues dealing with North Korea and the spread of COVID-19 in a country with significant food shortages and a weak health care system.
The potential for instability in a nuclear North Korea must be of concern to all nations, but especially neighboring countries. For that and other obvious reasons, China should use its close allied relationship with North Korea to get Mr. Kim to understand that halting further nuclear proliferation and returning to negotiations will benefit North Korea, now and in the future.
• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea and the former director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views are the author’s and not any government agency or department.
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washingtontimes.com · by The Washington Times https://www.washingtontimes.com


14. US/South Korea: Promote Rights in North Korea

Yes,the alliance should take a human rights upfront approach.

But we should never forget the bottom line: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
 

US/South Korea: Promote Rights in North Korea
hrw.org · May 19, 2022
US President Joe Biden, left, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, right. © 2021 AP Photo/Alex Brandon, and 2022 Jeon Heon-Kyun/Pool Photo via AP
(Seoul) – US President Joseph Biden and newly elected South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol should pledge to include human rights benchmarks in future negotiations with North Korea, Human Rights Watch said today. Biden is visiting South Korea on May 20-21, 2022, and will meet with Yoon to discuss economic and security issues, including North Korea’s growing nuclear weapon capacities.
“The United States and South Korea have for too long viewed the situation in North Korea primarily through the lens of North Korea’s nuclear weapons development,” said Lina Yoon, senior Koreas researcher at Human Rights Watch. “It’s crucial for negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to address the country’s human rights and humanitarian crisis.”
Weapons proliferation issues cannot be separated from human rights concerns, Human Rights Watch said. The North Korean military depends on widespread forced labor and a massive diversion of government resources from basic human needs for arms development. US law makes broad sanctions relief for North Korea contingent on human rights improvements, and counter-proliferation experts have acknowledged that successful monitoring of weapons agreements requires more general reforms by the North Korean government.
The US and South Korea should also increase efforts at the United Nations Security Council to hold new debates on the human rights situation in North Korea.
Biden and Yoon should also discuss humanitarian outreach to the North Korean government and how to provide assistance to address the country’s deteriorating economic and humanitarian situation and recently reported Covid-19 outbreak, Human Rights Watch said.
Since early 2020, North Korea has been imposing unnecessary and extreme restrictions that tighten government control over its northern border with China and Russia, the domestic movement of people and products, and information.
“The North Korean government has used Covid-19 restrictions to further oppress its people and restrict commercial activity and freedom of movement, creating a crisis over access to food, medicine, and other essential goods,” Lina Yoon said. “The UN and governments around the world should encourage North Korea to accept offers of monitored deliveries of food, medicine, vaccines, and the infrastructure to preserve and distribute vaccines.”
In August 2020, North Korea’s leadership responded to the pandemic by creating “buffer zones” on the border with China and Russia, and ordered soldiers to “unconditionally shoot” on sight anybody entering without permission. The government banned nearly all international travel.
It also blocked almost all official and unofficial trade, and limited domestic travel to the movement of essential personnel and goods, imposing almost de facto provincial lockdowns. As a result, food and other essential goods were kept from entering the country, and the capacity to move products internally decreased, causing shortages of basic necessities.
As up to 80 to 90 percent of products sold in North Korean markets are from China, many people lost the ability to make money. Many products, like medicines, cooking oil, or spices, are either not available, or in some cases, prices have gone up 10, 20, or 30 times, several people with contacts in North Korea told Human Rights Watch.
Pyongyang, to prevent dissent and to stop communication with the outside world, adopted a new law in December 2020 that bans distribution of media originating from South Korea, the United States, or Japan, punishable by long prison terms and possibly the death penalty.
North Koreans have had almost no access to the Covid-19 vaccine, as the North Korean government rejected several offers of vaccines. Many North Koreans are also chronically malnourished, leaving them with compromised immune systems. Medicines of any kind are scarce in the country, and the healthcare infrastructure is extremely fragile, lacking medical supplies, such as oxygen and other Covid-19 therapeutics.
North Korea’s meager economy has significantly contracted in recent years due to lockdowns, border closures, and intensifying UN Security Council sanctions. The current nationwide lockdown can be expected to hinder the agricultural harvest, already impacted by drought, which is crucial for the country’s economy. The extent of North Korea’s humanitarian crisis is unknown, as virtually all international aid providers pulled out of the country during earlier lockdowns.
In 2021, the Food and Agricultural Organization estimated that North Korea would face a gap between available and needed food in 2022 of over one million tons. UNICEF, the UN children’s fund, previously estimated that only one in three North Korean children receive a minimally adequate diet, and one in five are stunted due to malnutrition. estimated that more than 15 million North Koreans, almost 60 percent of the population, were food insecure meaning that more than half of the population was expected not to have enough food to eat, or would suffer from uncertain access to food. Those figures were calculated before the border closures and lockdowns.
“The US and South Korea should urgently try to persuade North Korea to allow outside humanitarian assistance and accept offers of aid,” Lina Yoon said. “North Koreans are facing a uniquely acute catastrophe, and the world should make every effort to address it.”


15. As Biden sets sights on Asia, new South Korea leader awaits with open arms

The bottom line:

"Biden's trip to Asia will be an important opportunity to reemphasize the strength of both alliances, and the U.S. defense commitment to the region in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Roehrig said.

As Biden sets sights on Asia, new South Korea leader awaits with open arms
Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · May 18, 2022
President Joe Biden is set to leave Thursday on his first trip to Asia since taking office more than a year ago. His first stop is South Korea, a U.S. ally on the front lines of tensions between the United States and some of its top rivals, including China, Russia and North Korea.
While the geopolitical climate remains fraught, Biden is expected to find a friendly face in Seoul, where newly sworn-in South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shares his U.S. counterpart's desire to revamp their alliance in the face of threats both emerging and longstanding.
At the center of this common pursuit is bringing South Korea firmly back into the U.S. orbit, while tempering a push by his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, to secure closer relations with China, and attempting to mend frayed ties with fellow U.S. ally Japan, with whom South Korea has a difficult history that still influences their dynamic.
"President Yoon, of course, is focused on domestic priorities, such as continuing to deal with COVID and to grow the economy," Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center's Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, told Newsweek. "But when it comes to foreign policy, he has advocated for drawing closer to the U.S. and being more skeptical of China, while working to repair relations with Japan."
"Those priorities are very much in line with Biden's own," she added, "and should make U.S.-South Korea relations even more harmonious than usual."
Adding to the significance of Biden's trip is the backdrop of Russia's war in Ukraine. The so-called "special military operation" launched nearly three months ago has received widespread condemnation from the U.S. and its allies, including South Korea, where the conflict has raised concerns of U.S. security assurances and underlined the necessity for robust national defense capabilities.
Terry, who previously served in various U.S. government capacities including at the CIA and the National Security Council, said that for South Korea, "the invasion highlights the importance of having a substantial conventional and nuclear force to deter aggression, and could herald a new era of international lawlessness."
Yoon's campaign successfully seized upon a recent spike in support for South Korea to shore up its own conventional and nuclear posture, and the role the U.S. could best play to support that platform is likely to be a topic of discussion when he sits down with Biden.
"Although the U.S. has responded strongly to the invasion, it is not willing to get involved in direct combat against a nuclear armed state," Terry said. "That underscores the importance to South Korea of developing its own military capabilities, and will probably renew debate on whether South Korea should develop its own nuclear arsenal."
"At the very least," Terry said, "it will probably lead the South Korean government to consider asking the U.S. to once again station U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea."

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (L) proposes a toast to the foreign guests during an inaugural dinner at a hotel, after his inauguration ceremony at the new presidential office on May 10, in Seoul, South Korea. Joe Biden (R) departs the White House as they head for Buffalo, New York, on May 17, 2022 in Washington, DC. The president will meet with community leaders, first responders and family members of the victims of Saturday's mass shooting at the Tops supermarket that left 10 Black people dead. JEON HEON-KYUN / Chip Somodevilla / Getty
But Yoon is a newcomer to the international stage, and he was relatively unknown to many outside of South Korea prior to the presidential race.
South Korea's newest leader does not share the political experience of his predecessors, and he took advantage of his outsider status to portray himself as crusader for reforms. A staunch conservative, Yoon's background is in law, and he most recently served as Moon's prosecutor general before a falling out over an attempt by the Blue House to curtail the office's investigative powers led to his resignation about a year before the election.
And while Yoon, who railed against feminism and gender equality throughout his campaign, may not share the full extent of Biden's liberal agenda, the firebrand lawyer-turned-leader has sought to portray himself as a more accessible president showcasing his affinity for animals, a love of cooking and informal meetings with citizens. He's even planned to open the Blue House to the public, and instead work several miles away in a 10-story building he's tentatively referred to as "the People's House."
Even more important to his upcoming meeting with Biden, however, is Yoon's stated commitment to aligning South Korea with the U.S. leader's plans to emphasize Washington's leadership in the Asia-Pacific as it simultaneously invests in European security and extends open-ended assistance to Ukraine.
Whereas Moon sought to hedge South Korea's position while seeking warmer ties with China, Yoon is expected to emphasize an even closer relationship with the U.S.
"President Yoon had made it clear that he intends to put to rest any 'strategic ambiguity' involving Korea's stance as it relates to its security (vis-à-vis China and North Korea) and pursue a policy of 'strategic clarity,'" Jeong-Ho Roh, director of Columbia University's Center for Korean Studies, told Newsweek. "Central to the clarity he seeks is Korea's relationship and alliance with the United States."
The meeting also represents an important step in Biden's campaign to rebuild U.S. partnerships with allies across the globe, following a tumultuous period under his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, whose displeasure over U.S. costs of the alliances created stumbling blocks to diplomacy, and brought talks with South Korea to a halt.
Could The World's Next Nuclear Power Be U.S. Ally South Korea?
Read more
"Biden's visit to Korea and Japan is meant to showcase and confirm that post-Ukraine Korea intends to stand firmly with the United States on matters of security," Roh said.
And he too felt this initiative would manifest itself in the form of a quest for strengthening military power, saying that, "based on this clear strategic choice, Korea, I believe, may seek from the United States support for building independent military capabilities (perhaps including introduction of extended deterrence on the Korean Peninsula)."
But Roh noted that Yoon's path is not without pitfalls, especially on the tasks of resetting relations with Japan and attempting to distance itself from China.
He pointed out the outstanding differences over Japan's interpretation of a 1965 agreement that Tokyo has argued resolved all of Seoul's compensation claims, and another deal made 50 years later over South Korean women forced into sex work, known as "comfort women," during the World War II years of Japanese occupation of the Korean Peninsula. These issues, he argued, "will undoubtedly be a source of continuing tension between Korea and Japan."
China also stands as a formidable challenge. Beijing remains Seoul's top trading partner, and Roh said "Korea will again have to walk a fine tightrope in balancing security and economic interests."
"But suffice to say," he added, "Yoon must surely understand that Korea's relations with the U.S. and China is not a zero-sum game."
And a common dilemma in the interests of South Korea, the U.S., Japan and China is North Korea, which has set its country firmly back on the path of advancing its nuclear capabilities after the breakdown of a peace process that was initiated in 2018 by Moon, Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.
"Unlike strategic ambiguity, which defines the U.S. relations with Taiwan (in the event of hostilities from China), both Korea and Japan need to clarify and confirm without ambiguity the treaty obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaties in the event of military hostilities and threats of nuclear escalation by North Korea and/or China," Roh said.
"I ask rhetorically," he added, "do the treaty obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaties with Korea rise to the level of Article V of NATO?'"

Then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and his granddaughter Finnegan Biden visit observation post Ouellette at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on December 7, 2013 in Panmunjom, South Korea. Biden is expected to again visit the tense border between North and South Korea nearly three years after his predecessor became the first U.S. president to cross into North Korea. Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
The question is vivid in the minds of many South Koreans watching as North Korea tests new nuclear-capable missiles while Pyongyang cheers on Moscow's attack on Ukraine.
"For South Korea, Ukraine adds another example to North Korea's list of why it will never give up its nuclear weapons, and why there is little reason to trust any security guarantee that might be offered in return for denuclearization," U.S. Naval War College professor Terrence Roehrig told Newsweek. "The likelihood of North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons was already near zero, and the events in Ukraine have helped cement that outcome."
Roehrig, who also holds the title of research fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School in the International Security Program and the Project on Managing the Atom, as well as serving as a non-resident expert at Columbia University's Center for Korean Legal Studies, said the seemingly distant conflict in Europe hits home for many in South Korea.
"Many wonder if Pyongyang views Russia's invasion as a blueprint for using military force to alter the status quo while issuing nuclear threats that make the United States hesitate to come to South Korea's defense," he said. "Would North Korea be emboldened at some point to replicate this strategy on the Korean Peninsula?"
Though Roehrig also offers an alternative scenario in which Russian setbacks in Ukraine "may engender caution for North Korea to undertake such a dangerous action" against South Korea, he saw this question of security as central to Yoon's agenda going into his meeting with Biden.
Potentially key to assuaging these fears in Yoon's mind is an increasingly apparent effort to strengthen not only the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but also South Korea's engagement with the broader Quadrilateral Security Dialogue comprising the U.S., Australia, India and Japan. The group, which operates under the banner of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," is widely viewed as a direct counter to Chinese ambitions in the region.
Roehrig said that Moon had kept his country's engagement with the U.S.-led quasi-coalition "at arm's length, for fear of an adverse reaction from Beijing," but now "Yoon has indicated a greater willingness to work with Quad initiatives, though less interested in joining the organization."
And while Roehrig too pointed out the difficult tasks Yoon faced in growing closer to Japan and further from China, a goal "easier to say than achieve," he felt that both the U.S. and South Korea would emerge from Saturday's summit more closely aligned, and that the same could be expected of Biden's subsequent trip to Japan for a Quad conference the following day.
"Biden's trip to Asia will be an important opportunity to reemphasize the strength of both alliances, and the U.S. defense commitment to the region in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Roehrig said.
Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · May 18, 2022


16. Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan



Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan
AP · by AAMER MADHANI and JOSH BOAK · May 19, 2022
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden departs on a six-day trip to South Korea and Japan aiming to build rapport with the two nations’ leaders while also sending an unmistakable message to China: Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine should give Beijing pause about its own saber-rattling in the Pacific.
Biden departs Thursday and is set to meet newly elected South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Their talks will touch on trade, increasing resilience in the global supply chain, growing concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program and the explosive spread of COVID-19 in that country.
While in Japan, Biden will also meet with fellow leaders of the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance known as the Quad, a group that includes Australia, India and Japan.
The U.S. under Biden has forged a united front with democratic allies that has combined their economic heft to make Russia pay a price for its invasion of Ukraine. That alliance includes South Korea and Japan. But even as Biden is to be feted by Yoon at a state dinner and hold intimate conversations with Kishida, the U.S. president knows those relationships need to be deepened if they’re to serve as a counterweight to China’s ambitions.
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“We think this trip is going to put on full display President Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy and then it will show in living color, the United States can at once lead the free world in responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and that at the same time chart a course for effective, principled American leadership and engagement in a region that will define much of the future of the 21st century,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.
The war in eastern Europe has created a sense of urgency about China among major U.S. allies in the Pacific. Many have come to see the moment as their own existential crisis — one in which it’s critical to show China it should not try to seize contested territory through military action.
Biden’s overseas travel comes as he faces strong domestic headwinds: an infant formula shortage, budget-busting inflation, a rising number of COVID-19 infections, and increasing impatience among a Democratic base bracing for a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that is likely to result in a roll back of abortion rights.
The conundrums Biden faces in Asia are no less daunting.
China’s military assertiveness has grown over the course of Biden’s presidency, with its provocative actions frequently putting the region on edge.
Last month, China held military drills around Taiwan after a group of U.S. lawmakers arrived for talks on the self-governed island. Late last year China stepped up sorties into Taiwan’s air space. Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, but Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve unification.
Japan has reported frequent intrusions by China’s military vessels into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The uninhabited islets are controlled by Japan but claimed by China, which calls them Diaoyu.
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday criticized what he called negative moves by Washington and Tokyo against Beijing during a video call with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi.
“What arouses attention and vigilance is the fact that, even before the American leader has set out for the meeting, the so-called joint Japan-U.S. anti-China rhetoric is already kicking up dust,” Wang said, according to China’s Foreign Ministry.
Meanwhile, South Korea could tilt closer to the U.S. under Yoon, who took office last week. The new South Korean president has criticized his predecessor as “subservient” to China by seeking to balance the relationships with Washington and Beijing. To neutralize North Korea’s nuclear threats, Yoon has pledged to seek a stronger U.S. security commitment.
The Biden administration has warned China against assisting Russia in its war with Ukraine. In March, the U.S. informed Asian and European allies that American intelligence determined that China had signaled to Russia a willingness to provide military support and financial backing to reduce the blow of severe sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies.
Biden administration officials say that the Russian invasion has been a clarifying moment for some of the bigger powers in Asia as financial sanctions and export bans have been put in place to check Russia.
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U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, Biden’s top envoy to Japan, said the Japanese have stood out by rallying eight of 10 members of Association of Southeast Nations to back a U.N. vote against the Russian invasion.
“Japan has been a pacesetter that has picked up and set the pace for South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and others here in the Indo Pacific area,” Emanuel said of Tokyo’s support of Ukraine following the Russian invasion.
Biden, who is making his first presidential trip to Asia, met Kishida briefly on the sidelines of a U.N. climate conference last year shortly after the Japanese prime minister took office. He has yet to meet with Yoon face-to-face. The South Korean leader, a former prosecutor who came to office without political or foreign policy experience, was elected in a closely fought election.
Biden arrives in the midst of an unfolding crisis in North Korea, where a mass COVID-19 outbreak is spreading through its unvaccinated population. North Korea acknowledged domestic COVID-19 infections for the first time last week, ending a widely doubted claim it had been virus-free.
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In recent months, North Korea has test-launched a spate of missiles in what experts see as an attempt to modernize its weapons and pressure its rivals to accept the country as a nuclear state and relax their sanctions.
Sullivan said U.S. intelligence officials have determined there’s a “genuine possibility” that North Korea will conduct another ballistic missile test or nuclear test around the time of Biden’s visit to Asia.
To be certain, China will also be carefully watching for “cracks in the relationship” during Biden’s trip, said Scott Kennedy, a China economic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Sullivan confirmed that Biden will use the trip to launch the long-anticipated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a proposed pact to set rules for trade and digital standards, ensuring reliable supply chains, worker protections, decarbonization and tax and anticorruption issues. Known as IPEF, it’s a planned substitute for the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President Donald Trump left in 2017 and that the Biden administration has not rejoined.
In terms of economic power, the U.S. slightly lags China in the Pacific, according to the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. But the institute’s analysis shows the possibility that a trade pact could magnify the combined power of the U.S. and its allies relative to China. Biden’s challenge is that IPEF would not necessarily cut tariff rates or give allied signatories greater access to U.S. markets, something Asian countries seek.
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Biden and his fellow leaders also have their own national interests and differences over what it means to strengthen supply chains that have been rattled by the coronavirus pandemic.
The Democratic president says the U.S. must increase computer chip production on American soil. The shortage has fueled inflation by delaying production of autos, life-saving medical devices, smartphones, video game consoles, laptops and other modern conveniences. Yet allies in Asia are talking about the need to expand their capacity for making semiconductors — a valuable export — in their own countries.
AP · by AAMER MADHANI and JOSH BOAK · May 19, 2022


17. Analysis: South Korea and Japan just don't get along. That's a problem for Biden

Improving relations and trilateral cooperation is number 7 on the 10 point action plan for the US INDOPACIFIC Strategy.

Analysis: South Korea and Japan just don't get along. That's a problem for Biden
CNN · by Analysis by Paula Hancocks, CNN
Seoul, South Korea (CNN)In uniting Western democracies against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, United States President Joe Biden managed something his critics thought was impossible.
Before Moscow's unprovoked war, European nations were split over issues ranging from Russian energy pipelines to Brexit and -- with lingering resentments dating back to Trump-era trade disputes and the Iraq war -- some even appeared to be rethinking their relationship with Washington.
Yet just three months on and -- as shown by Finland and Sweden's eagerness to join NATO -- Biden can say with some justification that the West is "stronger and more united than it's ever been."
Now, as he flies into Asia for his first trip as President, Biden faces a similarly daunting task in uniting two Asian democracies: South Korea and Japan.
The two countries are Biden's strongest allies in the region -- together they are home to more than 80,000 American troops -- and the US sees both as vital to building a coalition of like-minded countries to combat two threats potentially even more threatening to world peace than Russia's invasion: the rise of China and North Korea's nuclear program.
The stakes could hardly be any higher. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently referred to China's rise as "the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" -- and that was after the Russian invasion.
Meanwhile, North Korea has carried out fifteen missile launches so far this year and despite Pyongyang declaring a "severe national emergency" last week due to a Covid-19 outbreak, Washington believes its seventh nuclear test and further intercontinental ballistic missile tests may be imminent -- and possibly timed to coincide with Biden's trip.

Hence Washington's desire to see Japan and South Korea unite.
The problem for Biden? While both appear keen to get closer to Washington, when it comes to each other the two countries just do not get along. They have a historically bitter and fractious relationship that is rooted in Japan's colonization of South Korea from 1910 to 1945, and that was inflamed by Japan's use of sex slaves in wartime brothels -- victims now referred to euphemistically as "comfort women." What's more, they remain locked in a 70-year dispute over the sovereignty of a group of islets in the Sea of Japan, which Korea calls the East Sea.
These differences are no historical curiosities, but live disputes. At one of the most recent attempts at trilateral talks, in November 2021, a joint press conference was derailed when the Japanese vice foreign minister objected to a South Korean police chief's visit to the islets -- known as Dokdo by South Korea but Takeshima by Japan. Lawsuits brought against Japanese companies over their use of forced wartime labor remain unresolved. Recent years have seen increasing differences on security and economic issues.
Evans Revere, a former US diplomat who has been in and out of government over the past 50 years, with stints on both the Korea and Japan desks, has watched the sourness of the relationship undermine alliances over a period of decades.
"If Tokyo and Seoul are not talking with each other actively, if they're not cooperating with each other, it's very difficult for the US to carry out not only its obligations to them but its strategy of dealing with China, dealing with North Korea," he said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a speech in Gwangju on May 18, 2022, at a ceremony marking the 42nd anniversary of a 1980 pro-democracy uprising in the southwestern city.
Signs of a thaw
Thankfully for Biden, Revere says he is feeling more hopeful now than he has for a very long time.
Both South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are newly installed leaders and both have shown signs of hawkish stances on North Korea and China, as well as an eagerness for stronger military ties with the US.
Japan's still influential former leader Shinzo Abe has called on Tokyo to consider hosting US nuclear weapons, while South Korea's Yoon has suggested he would consider joining the Quad -- the US-led loose security grouping that includes Japan, India and Australia and will hold a summit meeting that Biden will attend towards the end of his trip.
Crucially, the two new leaders have also shown signs of putting the past behind them. Yoon offered an olive branch to Japan last month by sending a delegation to Tokyo ahead of his inauguration as part of his plan -- outlined in a campaign speech -- for South Korea to make a "fresh start" as a "global pivotal state."
His team hand delivered a letter from Yoon to Kishida and the move was reciprocated this month when Japan sent Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to Yoon's inauguration with a letter in reply.

After receiving the letter, Kishida said strategic cooperation between Japan, the US and South Korea was needed "more than ever, given that the rules-based international order is under threat."
But even if the countries' leaders see the benefit in putting the past behind them, they will be keen to avoid alienating voters who may not be as forgiving.
Professor Kohtaro Ito, a senior research fellow at The Canon Institute for Global studies, said that while Yoon had shown signs of a changing approach -- choosing a foreign minister in Park Jin who could speak both English and Japanese and is popular in the Japanese parliament -- any breakthrough during Biden's trip is unlikely.
That's because both must still navigate looming local elections -- South Korea has local polls in June and Japan has upper house elections in July -- and neither leader will want to alienate nationalist voters less disposed to letting bygones be bygones.
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a press conference in Tokyo on April 26.
The nationalism barrier
This is hardly the first time the two countries have tried to overcome their differences. In 1965 they signed a treaty that normalized relations and was supposed to settle some of the most controversial issues -- including that of the "comfort women."
But South Korea was a military dictatorship at the time and many Koreans have never accepted the treaty. For some, subsequent apologies and deals from Japanese prime ministers have still fallen short of what they deem sufficient reparations.
Choi Eunmi, a research fellow in Japanese Studies at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said that a Japan-South Korea alliance would be vital for Biden's hopes to build a coalition, but felt his visit would do little to settle these problems.
"It is too sensitive and too controversial and there is no room for America to resolve the issues," she said.
There are the voters to think of.
Revere highlights "the nationalism that often drives the perceptions of this relationship and historical issues in both capitals" as a spoiling factor and the role of the South Korean courts that -- through their rulings on wartime disputes -- "could bring any effort at reconciliation crashing down."
For decades, families of Korean forced labor victims have been fighting for compensation through the courts, targeting the Japanese companies directly.
It's an issue that has infuriated Tokyo, which believes things were resolved with the 1965 treaty, and an issue Yoon can hardly address without being accused of interfering in the independence of the judiciary.
Yoon also starts his single five-year term with the lowest approval ratings of any incoming President and has to work with an opposition-dominated parliament.
In Japan, the older and generally more conservative generation largely supports a tougher approach to South Korea and Kishida will be well aware of that, said Ito, who added that the older generation voted in far greater numbers than the younger one.
Biden, though, is likely to have one clear message that could cut through any lingering political doubts harbored by Kishida or Yoon: the importance of alliances and cooperation, as demonstrated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"The President of the US has been absolutely instrumental in mobilizing the international community, mobilizing NATO allies and others to support Ukraine in its moment of need," Revere said.
"What better statement about the importance and value of the utility of alliances than what is happening right now."
CNN · by Analysis by Paula Hancocks, CNN

18.  N.K. gauges timing for nuclear test after completing preparations: spy agency

What kind of effects does Kim think he will achieve with a nuclear test now or in the near future?

(LEAD) N.K. gauges timing for nuclear test after completing preparations: spy agency | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · May 19, 2022
(ATTN: ADDS more info from 4th para, photos)
SEOUL, May 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is gauging the timing of a nuclear test after completing all preparations while at the same time showing signs of preparing for a missile launch, South Korea's spy agency was quoted as saying Thursday.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) gave the assessment during a closed-door briefing to lawmakers amid concerns the North could carry out a major provocation during U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Seoul this week, according to briefed lawmakers.
"We were told that there are signs of a missile launch even though the country is in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, and with regard to a nuclear test, all preparations have been completed and they're gauging the timing," Rep. Ha Tae-keung of the ruling People Power Party told reporters.
Rep. Kim Byung-kee of the main opposition Democratic Party said it "would not be strange at all" even if North Korea fires a missile or conducts a nuclear test at any point.
A day earlier, Kim Tae-hyo, the first deputy chief of South Korea's presidential National Security Office, said the North's preparations for an intercontinental ballistic missile launch appear to be "imminent."

In response to the North's possible provocations, both South Korea and U.S. military authorities are keeping a readiness posture and are reportedly discussing plans of deploying U.S. strategic assets, according to the NIS.
The NIS estimated the North's COVID-19 virus wave to peak between late May and early June.
The North reported its first COVID-19 case last week after claiming to be coronavirus-free for over two years and declared the implementation of a "maximum emergency" virus control system.
The NIS added that it appears the North has virtually rejected South Korea's offer to provide COVID-19 medical assistance, though Pyongyang has yet to give its answer.
The U.S. has also recently offered to send COVID-19 aid to North Korea but received no response.
"China is No. 1 on North Korea's list for accepting foreign support, followed by international organizations, while the U.S. and South Korea would probably be the last ones on the list," the NIS was quoted as saying. "It appears that the North thinks the situation can be controlled if it gets support from China and others."
The North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) earlier reported that since late April, the total number of fever cases in the country had stood at over 1.97 million as of 6 p.m. Wednesday.
The NIS said it believes not all of the fever cases are COVID-19 cases.

"The coronavirus started to spread big from late April in North Korea, but before that, waterborne diseases, like measles and typhoid, had already spread widely," the agency said. "We see that the number of fever cases announced by North Korea includes the cases of waterborne diseases."
The NIS added the virus appears to have come from trains connecting North Korea and China.
Asked about the North's control of the people with fever symptoms, the NIS said not all fever patients seem to go through isolation but that most of them are quarantined at schools or designated facilities and are released after their body temperature falls.
"North Korea absolutely lacks testing equipment for the virus, but it appears to have enough thermometers to check body temperature."
The NIS said the North's daily announcement on fever cases is aimed at controlling public sentiment.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · May 19, 2022


19. NK leader unlikely to have received COVID-19 vaccine: spy agency

Hmmm...... I would have assumed otherwise and that the regime would have smuggled in vaccines for at least the core elite.

NK leader unlikely to have received COVID-19 vaccine: spy agency | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · May 19, 2022
SEOUL, May 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is unlikely to have been vaccinated against COVID-19, South Korea's spy agency was quoted as saying Thursday.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a closed-door briefing to lawmakers it assumes Kim has not received COVID-19 vaccine inoculation, citing unspecified "various circumstances," multiple participants in the briefing told Yonhap News Agency.
Pyongyang has not brought any vaccine products into the country, but is starting to sense the need for vaccination, the NIS said, citing North Korean state media Rodong Sinmun's recent report that vaccination is effective in preventing the spread of the virus, according to the officials.


nyway@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · May 19, 2022








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V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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