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March 17, 2023

Red maple buds show signs of seasonal change in these photos taken about a week apart in April 2017. Credit: UMaine Signs of the Seasons via Facebook

Seek signs of the shifting seasons in your backyard (or wherever you are) to help climate scientists

By Annie Ropeik

From my apartment in Portland's West End, I can see seagulls and squirrels, magnolia and maple trees, the occasional turtle dove that alights on the porch railing and enthralls the cats. The flower bulbs in my neighbor's yard will begin to poke through the soil in the next several weeks, the buds will start appearing on the trees. Spring isn't quite here yet, but it's coming soon, inexorable.

This is phenology -- the timing of seasonal change, and the ways it manifests in the behavior and cyclical transformation of plants, animals and ecosystems. This seasonal timing is changing, slowly but surely, as the climate warms -- fall starting later, spring starting earlier. As we recently reported in this newsletter, winters in the Northeast have shrunk by three weeks in the past century.

Climate researchers need help from people on the ground to record real-time observations of this seasonal change, collecting enough of them with enough repetition to draw reasonable conclusions. Across the country and in Maine, more than 5,000 volunteers do this as part of the National Phenology Network, which is overseen by the University of Arizona with help from a number of federal science agencies.

When I was first learning to be a climate reporter, I would often ask people in my audience what they wanted to know about the crisis. The most common answer by far was, "what can I do that will matter the most?" There are lots of complicated ways to answer that question -- but today I have a simple one: You can help scientists observe and track the effects of climate change, providing data that shows this change is here and happening, informs better predictions, and helps us to adapt our food system, infrastructure and more.

"[Researchers] could just never approach anything close to the volume that you can get if people from communities all over the state are out there in their backyards and in public parks and other places observing these changes," said Beth Bisson, who helps lead Maine Sea Grant and the University of Maine's phenology program, Signs of the Seasons.

The program has a suite of "indicator species" with standardized protocols for volunteers to follow in making their observations, using worksheets and apps to count leaves, track dates and spot species. Maine's program also has a protocol for observing rockweed on the coast. Participants are encouraged to go out once every week or two to observe specific seasonal changes happening around them.

Credit: Signs of the Seasons

"We have volunteers who do everything from selecting a single dandelion plant in their yard," Bisson said, "to observing, you know, more than a dozen species on several different sites."

Scientists can take a set of hundreds of volunteer observations of, say, the buds beginning to break on a red maple tree (pictured at the top) in a certain climatic zone or at a certain elevation. They can average these observations, and compare those averages from place to place and year to year, to gauge movement in the timing of a red maple's seasonal transformation.

Paired with the factors like temperature and snow cover, this data can help turn hypotheses about climate change into empirically supported conclusions.

"We're really trying to get at the complexity of that signal, and how plants are changing across the landscape," Bisson said. "For example, if you've looked at a mountain in the spring, you can see that the leaf-out occurs at the lower elevations earlier than the upper elevations. And so if we can get a large number of volunteers, hundreds of individuals making observations all across the state, we have a much better understanding of how the changes are occurring, and how those changes may affect things like our sugar maple industry."

The data can show "mismatches" emerging between interdependent plants and animals as these seasons move around. To this end, Bisson said, one focus of the Maine phenology program is on lowbush blueberries and their pollinators. 

To explore the resulting data across the country, try this map tracking the early arrival of spring across the U.S. this year relative to the 1991-2020 average. It's based on volunteer observations of lilacs and honeysuckle, now considered an official climate indicator in the federal government's periodic National Climate Assessment. Or see how many different kinds of observations the network has generated over the years.

The program has informed more than 200 peer-reviewed papers over the years. There's a study on the changing migrations of the beautiful black-and-white warbler, which breeds in part in the boreal forests of Northern Maine and Canada. Another study compared climate observations along trails in Acadia National Park against other parts of New England.

One recent study shows how the volunteer data can be used to model airborne pollen. This could mean better predictions for allergy season and how it's changing in a warming climate. This was dismayingly summed up in a recent report by the nonprofit Climate Central as "earlier, longer and worse."

It can be overwhelming to face the reality of these changes, knowing how they will worsen especially if greenhouse emissions don't decline and to some extent even if they do. But Bisson said her work still feels mostly hopeful and positive.

In surveys, she said the majority of Maine's phenology volunteers report that participating makes them more aware of climate impacts and "more likely to engage with stewardship actions related to climate change."

"You're generating useful data, but you're also generating more of a connection yourself to the changes in the environment around you," she said. "I find that I pay closer attention -- it's nice to slow down."

Sign up for Signs of the Seasons trainings to become an observer -- they're currently scheduled in the next few weeks in Wells, Falmouth, Camden and Boothbay, with more pending. And let us know what you see out there.

Credit: Poets.org via Twitter

Help The Monitor and ProPublica report on Maine nursing homes: If you have firsthand experience living, working or caring for someone in a large "Level 4" assisted living facility, click here to get in touch privately.

In other Maine news:

PFAS:

The Environmental Protection Agency proposed its first-ever drinking water standards for PFAS chemicals. The limits are stricter than Maine's.

Lithium mine:

The couple hoping to mine a huge lithium deposit on their land in Newry is urging state lawmakers to “clarify” Maine's strict mining laws.

Tribal sovereignty:

Maine's indigenous leaders gave a historic address to the legislature, not attended by Gov. Janet Mills due to what her office called a scheduling conflict, as lawmakers seek to craft a new bipartisan version of a plan to restore self-governance rights to the tribes that would circumvent a gubernatorial veto.

Willow project:

The Biden administration's approval of an oil drilling lease for ConocoPhillips in Alaska, decried by some as a betrayal of the president's climate promises, is drawing support from Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Power plant emissions:

A new federal rule for smokestacks at power plants seeks to protect downwind populations, like those in New England affected by air pollution from the Midwest.

Lobster:

Maine groups are suing the Monterey Bay Aquarium for defamation over the "red-listing" of lobster by the aquarium's sustainable seafood consumer advisory program.

Fish farm:

Kingfish Maine has won approval to build a yellowtail farm in Jonesport.

Electric vehicles:

Maine and its drivers face hurdles on the road to clean transportation.

I-95:

A state regulator cast doubt on a plan to expand the highway from Houlton to Fort Kent.

Gas-powered lawn equipment:

South Portland is divided over a proposed ban that would require a move to electric mowers and leaf-blowers.

Trash:

A group of towns wants the state to back a $20 million loan to reopen a shuttered solid waste and recycling plant in Hampden.

Seals:

Yes. YES. The Cape Elizabeth seals are out. (After this poem.)

Thanks for reading. See you next week.

Kate Cough covers energy and the environment for The Maine Monitor. She's a graduate of Columbia University and an 8th generation Mainer born in Portland who's now decamped Downeast. You can reach her at kate@themainemonitor.org or @kaitlincough.

Annie Ropeik is a freelance environmental reporter based in Portland and a board member with the Society of Environmental Journalists. You can reach her at aropeik@gmail.com or @aropeik, or at her website.

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