CNS News & Views: September 2021

Middlebury Institute of International Studies

September 2021

The Power of Open-Source Intelligence

A recent Economist cover story explored how open-source intelligence (OSINT) can challenge governments’ monopolies on information, featuring several CNS experts including Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

The article is behind a paywall, but you can watch the video interview between Andrew Cassel, Middlebury’s social media strategist, and Dr. Jeffrey Lewis to gain insights into the cutting-edge open-source intelligence tools and technologies CNS experts use to study nuclear, chemical, biological and missile threats, and what you can do to get involved.

Watch here

CNS Investigation Helps Uncover Tragic Military Error

On August 29, the U.S. military fired a Hellfire (acronym: Helicopter Launched, Fire and Forget Missile) Missile with an explosive charge at a white Corolla that it believed to be carrying explosives, resulting in the deaths of 10 civilians, 7 of whom were children. CNS Scientist-in-Residence Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress was contacted by the Washington Post’s visual forensics team to complete an independent assessment of the explosion. He found that it was unlikely that there were extra explosives in the car contradicting U.S. Central Command’s initial description of there being “significant secondary explosions”.

The results of several independent news investigations, including that of the Washington Post, pressured the U.S. government into re-examining evidence related to the strike. Ultimately, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed the military had made the horrifying mistake of striking an aid work transporting water: “We now know that there was no connection between Mr. Ahmadi and ISIS-Khorasan, that his activities on that day were completely harmless… Mr. Ahmadi was just as innocent a victim as were the others tragically killed.” In a recent episode of MIDDChat, Dalnoki-Veress and Andrew Cassel of Middlebury College discussed both the techniques used in this investigation and the horrifying human costs of such wartime errors.

Watch the interview

Join Our Team!

We are looking for an experienced PhD or MD for our Director CBWNP/Senior Scientist position and a Postdoctoral/Sabbatical Fellow at our office in Monterey, CA. In our Washington DC office, we are looking for a Research Associate and a Research Associate/Program Coordinator! Please share these announcements with your colleagues, friends, and networks.

These are all full-time staff positions. For more information, read the full job descriptions:

Director CBWNP/Senior Scientist

Postdoctoral/Sabbatical Fellow

Research Associate

Research Associate / Program Coordinator

Apply here

VCDNP Activities at the INMM/ESARDA Annual Meeting

VCDNP Executive Director Elena K. Sokova and Research Associates Artem Lazarev and Noah Mayhew participated in several panel discussions and presentations during the 2021 Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) and the European Safeguards Research and Development Association (ESARDA) Joint Annual Meeting.

Ms. Sokova organized and moderated a panel on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Mr. Lazarev discussed the removal of disused radioactive sources and material from the Republic of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria (based upon the results of a study co-authored with CNS’s Margarita Kalinina-Pohl, Miles Pomper, and George M. Moore). Mr. Mayhew gave presentations on the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, the role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in nuclear materials management, and on lessons learned from the US-Russia-IAEA Trilateral Initiative.

New Book: International Nuclear Export Controls and Non-Proliferation

Drawing on a rich body of original archival research and interviews, International Nuclear Export Controls and Non-Proliferation: The Collective Action Problem demonstrates that the collective action problem has restrained cooperation in preventing nuclear proliferation and that gaps persist in the international nuclear trade control regime. While efforts have been undertaken to address this collective action problem and strengthen controls over time, these measures have been inherently limited, due to the same structural factors and vested interests that led to the creation of the problem in the first place.

This study examines international controls from the beginning of the nuclear age and early efforts to control the atom, up to more recent times and the challenge posed by Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions. Written by CNS’s Dr. Ian Stewart, Executive Director of the Washington D.C. office, this book examines the evolution of international nuclear non-proliferation trade controls over time and will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation and arms control, security studies, and International Relations.