In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Eli Kaul finds diminishing returns on Russian intelligence operations as Ukraine has strengthened its counterintelligence capabilities. Analyzing Putin’s recent Federal Assembly address, Pavel Baev notes he said nothing about successfully ending the war, instead calling for more sacrifices, and Nikolay Petrov finds signs Russia’s future “looks like a frozen present.”

A second new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, by Cole Harvey, presents worldwide historical evidence that election manipulation does not regularly provoke protests. Putin’s own risk of losing office is higher now than ever, though, says Timothy Frye. For Ekaterina Schulmann, “unfree societies are generally silent,” and Russians are not being turned into a unified, bloodthirsty group of fascist people. As Hilary Appel notes, the Kremlin has justified its invasion only with abstract ideas, not concrete reasons for how the war serves the interests of ordinary Russians.

With Georgia appearing to follow Russia in debating a “foreign agents” bill that would limit civil society activity, Bidzina Lebanidze notes the Georgian government has been very critical of NGOs and the mass media in recent years. For Mikhail Troitskiy, this is a sign of regime vulnerability and will fail to dehumanize their intended targets. Further east, Elizabeth Wishnick finds signs Beijing’s neutral stance may be under strain, with President Xi considering a visit to Moscow and Chinese media heavily parroting Russian propaganda.

Events

New Voices on Eurasia with Sasha de Vogel (Harvard University) on the “The Evolving Concerns of Russians after the Invasion of Ukraine,” Thursday, March 9, 2023, 3-4 PM EST

See the video recordings of Ukrainathon II, a 24-hour marathon event spotlighting Ukrainian resilience and supporting the Kyiv School of Economics.