I hope all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. This time of year combined with such a beautiful place to live is magical. Rhinebeck is getting all excited about the annual SinterKlass parade and events (starting Friday!) Love all the lights going up. I can't wait to see the ERDAJT Christmas light display in LaGrangeville. This year the count is up to 687,000 lights! Beautiful tree farms and jubilant staff awaiting with fresh cocoa and cider. Norman Rockwell in full glory. Hope you're enjoying the holiday season!

While Rhinebeck has realized noticeable press, at 4% over 2020 in increased listings sold, this charming town did not make this specific Top Ten list.

There are a healthy amount of closings still on tap for December throughout Dutchess County. The percentages below will most likely adjust to some level with year end numbers, but I'm not expecting rash change as the numbers pulled were YTD on November 30th.

Top Ten Movers for overall highest positive percentage change in sold listings

YTD 2021 vs 2020:

#1 Town of Washington by a 71% landslide

#2 Town of Poughkeepsie 35%

#3 City of Beacon 29%

#4 Town and Village of Fishkill 22%

#5 Town of Amenia 21%

#6 Town of Unionvale 18%

#7 Town and Village of Wappingers 11%

#8 Town of East Fishkill 15%

#9 Town of Hyde Park 15%

#10 Town Lagrange 10%

Towns with negative percentage change sold YTD 2021 v. 2020. Again, this is not due to lack of buyer interest, but rather historically low inventory levels:

#1 Town of Milan -39%

#2 Town of Pine Plains -36%

#3 Town of Northeast -34%

#4 Town of Stanford -17%

#5 Town of Pawling -17%

#6 Town of Dover -15%

#7 Town of Red Hook -11%

#8 Town of Clinton -7%

The county is nearly evenly split between positive and negative due primarily to inventory shortages that have continued to hold at historic lows since May.

The law of economics kicks in with lower price points most often experiencing highest transaction volume. Every town in Dutchess County with the exception of two (Amenia and Northeast) were down in closed sales in the $0-300,000 price range YTD versus 2020. With absorption rates (amount of time for a home to cycle through market introduction to sold) hovering at two months throughout Dutchess County in these and many other price points, this is about lack of inventory, which very much continues to be a local and national issue.

The market momentum reports I produce keep a pulse on the market for myself, clients and The Brick subscriber base. I have not seen reports produced or available for Dutchess County that slice data the way my reports do. If you're interested in seeing a sample report, click here for the Town of Washington from this last round as an example. I produce a report for every town in the county. If you are interested in seeing the report for your town, just reach out to me.

One piece of knowledge gleaned from these reports are pricing "sweet spots," which can vary considerably by town. The Town of Poughkeepsie has been a consistent performer throughout the pandemic. To provide a "sweet spot" visual, the below chart was pulled from its respective market momentum report.

When I saw healthy increases in homes sold between 2020 and 2021 in certain price points, I went back a year further to 2019, which trended as a "normal" market pre-Covid. Take a look at the heightened activity below in the $300,000-$550,000 price points. With inventory down a staggering 74% in the $0-300,000 range versus 2019, the $350,000-$550,000 can be deemed the current "sweet spot" in the Town of Poughkeepsie.

The Town of Beekman numbers brought me back to the subdivision I represented in Hopewell Junction before relocating to Dutchess County.

I named the subdivision Stonegate, branded it (including "The Jewel of Dutchess" tagline) and marketed it at first to builders and developers before going retail to buyers.

I also listed and/or sold the adjacent 69 and 79 acre parcels for different landowners. The land assemblage opportunity there excites me as I see that area as ripe for transformation. I have kept a firm pulse on the Town of Beekman for the past five years through this work. The "sweet spot" pre Covid in the Town of Beekman was up to $450,000, which made new construction starting in the $550,000 range through $850,000 challenging as I shared at the time with the landowners.

The latest Town of Beekman numbers are showing increases in solds between 20-200% in the $500,000 to $750,000 price point. Volume still drops noticeably at $600,000, but price points that were once weak in the Town of Beekman have clearly strengthened since Covid. The Stonegate subdivision is located a mere two miles from the Beekman Road exit off the Taconic State Parkway with opportunities still available. If you're interested in building a new home or for builders interested in building multiple homes, reach out to me.

Interested in projections for Spring Market 2022? Check out the October, 2021 issue of The Brick. I stand by all projections noted and in fact Fortune Magazine released an article a month after the newsletter that aligned with my commentary. You can see the October issue by clicking here

In the moment, the Town of Washington and the Town of Rhinebeck are tied for top sale YTD in Dutchess County with selling prices of $7,000,000 each. Third runner up is in Amenia with a sale price of $6,800,000. Take a peek in these homes by clicking here. I don't believe the 2021 luxury story is over with those three listings, though. There are two listings currently in contract with higher price tags, one since October and one since late November. Both could close before year end as the chances they are being purchased with cash are high. If these two outstanding homes close at or near their asking prices, then the Town of Washington would take the top spot for luxury sale in 2021 with the Town of Milan behind it. Take a peek at the homes slated to take the top two positions for highest sales $1,000,000+ in 2021.

There have been 43 sales $1,000,000+ since January 1, 2021 in Rhinebeck. For perspective, Rhinebeck had 24 sales in 2020 at the $1,000,000+ price point and only 7 in 2019, which was considered a trending "normal" year. The Town of Rhinebeck is up 79% in $1,000,000+ sales YTD 2021 versus 2020 and 514% YTD versus 2019.

Towns with the highest luxury active listings:

1) Town of Washington (16 active listings $1,000,000+)

2) Town of Rhinebeck (10 active listings $1,000,000+)

3) Town of Clinton (5 active listings $1,000,000+)\

4) East Fishkill (4 active listings $1,000,000+)

5) Town of Milan (4 active listings $1,000,000+)

Interested in top sales by town? Here's a link to the full listing for the highest priced sale in each town in Dutchess County YTD.

There has been much chatter about the $45,000,000 estate recently listed in Hyde Park. I have included that full listing along with the two next closest in price active listings. The two other listings have been on the market at their current price since July 2020. I have seen enough in this market to not be surprised. It could very well sell for $45M or it could sit. Either way, there is no comparative to justify or refute the asking price. The house is beautiful. It is true it could not be rebuilt due to changes in zoning since it was first constructed, but there is reason zoning has made more restrictive changes since then. Take a look at these listings here. Would you pay $45M?

The market is still a strong sellers market. I stand by my projections in the October, 2021 issue. Current median pricing remained consistent at $415,000 in August and September, 2021. The median price did slip a bit in October to $401,000, per Mid Hudson multiple listing service. There is some upward movement, albeit contained, in mortgage interest rates. Inventory (homes available for sale) continues to stay at historic lows first hit in May, 2021. I do believe we are setting up for an adjustment, but unless an unexpected trigger enters the picture that catapults us out of this sellers market, we will will likely at least initially, find the adjustment to be discreet for the most part.

Whether or not moving, declutter and organize can be a game changer. I interviewed professional organizer, Ellen Kutner, a few months back. This is an informative step by step video. Ellen has helped me with my personal residences. Start your organized journey by clicking here.

At a recent listing appointment, the owners had completely renovated the kitchen and one of the bathrooms. They were beautiful, but then I went into the basement and saw nearly two inches of standing water throughout. The owners shared it was an ongoing problem. Every home is different. Having a set of professional eyes candidly looking through a home could ultimately bring more value with clear input on how to best prepare your home for sale. If you're interested in selling your home, reach out to me. I'll come out and take a look and share candid feedback on what you should consider to best prepare your home for sale. Now is the time to start preparing for Spring market.

We are going to keep it our little secret that I represented both the buyer and seller in this $1,800,000 sale in Rhinebeck or my children will have a wishlist going through the roof to meet Santa. If you would like to tour this beautiful home, click here or to see the full listing, click here.

After holding my license in Westchester for over two decades, I forgot what it was like starting out. Relocating to Dutchess and focusing my business here meant re-establishing myself. I had been a top producer enjoying the lions share of business from client referrals. No matter. I found myself starting a client base once again from scratch.

I hold deep gratitude for the client base I have developed and my clients trust in my word and ability to accomplish, if not surpass, their goals.

To a great 2022 all!