Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

(quick catch up after returning from overseas travel)

Quotes of the Day:

"To acquire knowledge, one must study; but to acquire wisdom, one must observe."

- Marilyn vos Savant

“One key difference between military violence and militant nonviolence is that the latter flummoxes the foe. Police and vigilante groups in the South were well versed in the use of force, but not in this new approach. Ultimately, this righteous insight would be key to the success of the Movement. It was a smart approach not just strategically but tactically. As Richard Gregg, an American disciple of Gandhi, wrote in the 1930s, “Your violent opponent wants you to fight in the way to which he is accustomed. If you utterly decline, and adopt a method wholly new to him, you have thus gained an immediate tactical advantage.” When the civil rights movement was able to keep a nonviolent stance, it generally prevailed.”

- Waging a Good War: A Military History of the Civil Rights Movement, 1954-1968 by Thomas E. Ricks

"Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms – to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances.

- Viktor Frankl

1. Up Front: The Role of Civil Society in North Korean Human Rights

2. US policy toward North Korea has not failed

3. N. Korea says it tested high-thrust solid-fuel engine to develop new strategic weapon

4. N. Korea seems to be prepping military parade in Pyongyang: Seoul official

5. N. Korea likely to focus on building 'three axes' of its weapons system next year: expert

6. N. Korea continues to develop military capabilities that pose threat to U.S. and allies: Kirby

7. Korea Expected to Beat Japan in Per-Capita GDP

8. North Koreans struggle to prepare for the frigid winter weather

9. US, Seoul aligned on need to change China's behavior: US official

10. UN General Assembly passes N. Korean human rights resolution for 18th consecutive year

11. Democracy in retreat and Korea's timely co-hosting of 2023 Democracy Summit

12. North Korea Tests New Rocket Engine to Enable Long-Range Missile Strikes

1. Up Front: The Role of Civil Society in North Korean Human Rights

I just spent the past couple of days in Korea at different events than my good friend Greg (mine were closed door and Greg was a featured public speaker).. The Koreans seem to be more committed to north Korean human rights than ever before. I met with the Ministry of Unifications Director of North Korean human rights and his staff and I found them to be very engaged and focused.

The bottomline is the ROK/US alliance must take a human rights upfront approach. Civil society can play an important role supporting north Korean human rights.

Up Front: The Role of Civil Society in North Korean Human Rights

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

By Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director

December 16, 2022

NOTE: This essay is adapted from remarks delivered by Greg Scarlatoiu, HRNK Executive Director, at an International Dialogue on North Korean Human Rights organized by the Republic of Korea’s Ministry of Unification on Wednesday, December 14, 2022 in Seoul. He spoke during Session 2, which addressed “Roles of Civil Society and International Cooperation.” The other panelists were Professor Eun-Mee Kim (President, Ewha Womans University), James Heenan (Representative, UN OHCHR Office in Seoul), Joanna Hosaniak (Deputy Director-General, Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights), and Bum-Soo Kim (Executive Director, Save NK). The recorded livestream of the event can be viewed at this link.

Ambassador Lee Shin-Wha, thank you very much for the kind words and for the invitation to join this august group. I also would like to thank the Ministry of Unification for organizing this conference.

Many words of wisdom have been uttered today. During the first session, Ambassador Lee Jung-Hoon and Professor Victor Cha mentioned a very important endeavor. How do we get Hollywood on board? How do we get celebrities on board?

Remember that not too long ago, before their temporary hiatus, BTS met with President Joe Biden at the White House. Was there one word uttered about North Korean human rights? None. BTS is not just a K-pop band. BTS is a global cultural phenomenon. What a great opportunity. Where are the K-pop artists?

Parasite was the first foreign movie to win the Oscars. They had the world's largest stage. Was there one word uttered about North Korean human rights, or the suffering people of North Korea? Not one. These are the type of challenges we are dealing with. This is where civil society must come in, and push as hard as we can.

Of course, we understand that there are other important issues—political, security, military issues. We understand that there is a certain bias within the national security and diplomatic environment against this issue of human rights, which is sometimes perceived as a nuisance. As Joanna [Hosaniak] was mentioning, we are on the fringes. North Korean human rights is a fringe issue, practically.

In order to understand North Korea, one has to look through the lens of a realist theory of international relations, if you will, even through the lens of offensive realism. From that viewpoint, I suffer from professional cognitive dissonance. I also spend my time as a Wilsonian liberal, trying to affect change through the improvement of the human rights situation in North Korea.

These are all difficult issues that we have to address. We have to compete against other very important human rights crises across the world. This is not to discount the importance of attending to the other human rights crises. The North Korean human rights crisis—in particular, the North Korean refugee crisis—is a slow-motion crisis. There is somehow the impression that this is not as serious as the other terrible things happening in the world. This is where the role of non-governmental organizations (NGO) and civil society organizations (CSO) is very important.

Yesterday, I was having a very interesting conversation with colleagues from the Ministry of Unification about the "three tribes." Ours is the human rights tribe. There is a humanitarian and engagement tribe. There is an unconditional peace tribe as well. Is it possible to bring the three together for the common cause of human rights, democracy, peace, prosperity, reconciliation, and eventual unification for Koreans?

Our distinguished keynote speaker this morning, Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, has provided us with two answers to how these three groups can be brought together. One of them is what he said this morning. Peace without human rights is meaningless. We have seen attempts at a peace declaration and peace resolutions for the Korean Peninsula. Of course, we are all in favor of peace, and there can be no peace without human rights. That is why the role of civil society is very important. We must remind everyone that there is no such thing as peace devoid of human rights.

While he was Secretary-General, His Excellency Ban Ki-Moon on was very keen on the concept of "Human Rights up Front." As James [Heenan] knows very well, we have been using this term quite liberally in Washington, D.C. We have used this term to refer to an approach to national security and other issues that also factors in human rights and places it up front. In the case of the UN, of course, what it originally meant was that humanitarian interventions must be cognizant of the human rights situation.

I would argue that progress on North Korea is no longer possible without factoring in human rights. We have been using the same methods to address North Korea for more than 30 years now, whether that involves the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework, the Six-Party Talks, the "Leap Day" agreement, or the summit meetings of the past few years. In a different shape and form, the same errors were committed again and again. Human rights is sacrificed on the altar of security, military, and political issues, which are—of course—very important. Where did that get us?

I hear this all the time: "Oh, human rights in North Korea, that must be a short conversation." Well, I do not mean to take the problem lightly, but how about the nuclear weapons and missiles? How is that going? While not factoring in human rights, the North Koreans have reached the point where they have the capacity to launch 25 missiles during one single day. Perhaps it is time for a different approach that also factors in human rights.

There are responsible UN member states, including the United States and our great allies in the Republic of Korea, that have a keen interest in preserving and improving the international system as we know it. We have nothing better in place. On the other hand, there are also revisionist powers that try to challenge it.

U.S. NGOs and CSOs also feel the pressure. My organization was fortunate to acquire UN ECOSOC consultative status. My good friend Nam Ba-Da and our colleagues at PSCORE also have that consultative status and know how difficult it is to obtain it. Why do pro-democracy and pro-human rights organizations have such a hard time getting in? The answer is simple. Because revisionist powers, who are not exactly beacons of human rights or democracy, hold the key to access to the UN system through the NGO Committee. The only way to do it is to get rejected at the NGO Committee and then overturn it at ECOSOC. This takes support from many member states, including the United States, Canada, and the European Union. NGOs are also feeling this pressure, and North Korean human rights NGOs are also feeling this pressure.

Very important issues have been mentioned today. CSOs can play a very important role in the implementation of these issues at the United Nations. For a few years now, the North Korean human rights issue at the Security Council has been discussed as "AOB," any other business. As Joanna [Hosaniak] was saying, crimes against humanity do not qualify as "any other business." They are much graver than just that. Following the UN Commission of Inquiry report in 2014, the issue was placed on the agenda of the UN Security Council for several years. This is a procedural matter. It takes 9 out of 15 votes of permanent and non-permanent members to hold a discussion. I can assure you that my colleagues in the audience and on the podium know that CSOs play a very important role in liaising with UN member states and UN agencies. Documentation is very important, and also providing this type of information is extraordinarily important.

In the United States, we need a Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights to play the extraordinary role that Ambassador Robert King played until February 2017. He was more than just a Special Envoy. We in the NGO community know that he was our best friend and our cheerleader. It was very important to have that cheerleader in that position because of the difficulties we face.

Here in South Korea, there is the eternal drama of the North Korean Human Rights Foundation. This issue has been politicized for far too long. Our South Korean friends, allies, and partners need to move beyond this. It will be for the benefit of not only NGOs based here in South Korea that address North Korean human rights, but also to all NGOs that work on the issue.

Fundamentally, what we need is a paradigm shift, a paradigm shift that continues to address all of these important issues that threaten the lives of millions in Northeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and beyond. As we address these issues, it is also very important to include human rights in this new paradigm.

This, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, is our greatest challenge moving forward.

Thank you very much.

Categories: Human Rights, NGO, North Korea, South Korea, United Nations, United States

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

2. US policy toward North Korea has not failed

This should stir a lot of commentary. I think it provides a very useful perspective and I agree that in the long term protecting South Korea's democracy and economy are critical tasks.

To split the difference between those who will argue that the policy has failed and those who argue the policy is a success, I would say that the jury is still out. No one should expect Kim Jong Un to suddenly come to the negotiating table and negotiate denuclearization in good faith.

But to reinforce the conclusion of this piece, what is of paramount importance is that the ROK/US alliance operates from a common perspective regarding the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. And concession to the regime will cause Kim to assess his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy a success and he will likely double down.

Excerpts:

Ultimately advocates for engagement need to start formulating better premises. Declaring that a bad idea must be implemented because existing policy has failed is mere solutions fetishism rather than sound policy recommendation.

If one wants to argue that Washington’s tactics toward North Korea have not worked, that is an easier case to make. From President Clinton to the present day, U.S. presidents have treated North Korea like a problem they can bargain, threaten, bribe or charm away.

Even Donald Trump’s administration, which gave North Korea perhaps the most sustained attention in recent decades, evidently believed it could achieve denuclearization within a single term and did not consider that the regime had its own long-term goals that complete denuclearization did not serve.

The State Department and National Security Council can address this by seeking greater representation among experts familiar with the regime’s internal logic. However, the resulting revisions to its approach should not put the higher priority of preserving South Korea at risk.

After all, if the South Korean economy and democracy and the enduring U.S.-ROK alliance are a failure, then who needs success?

US policy toward North Korea has not failed

Denuclearizing the DPRK is secondary to the greater goal of preserving South Korea’s democracy and economy

https://www.nknews.org/2022/12/us-policy-toward-north-korea-has-not-failed/?utm_source=pocket_reader

Rob York December 14, 2022

U.S. President Joe Biden in a meet and greet with members of the U.S. Air Force 51st Fighter Wing, U.S. Forces Korea and their families, May 22, 2022 | Image: The White House via Flickr

The following article is an opinion piece by Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Pacific Forum. Views expressed in opinion articles are exclusively the author’s own and do not represent those of NK News.

North Korea has launched more missiles than ever before this year. Denuclearization talks with the U.S. and South Korea remain frozen. And in the face of all this, it’s not uncommon to encounter assessments that Washington’s policy toward Pyongyang has failed.

Among those who say this, the reasons generally expressed include that the division of the peninsula persists, that North Korea’s nuclear program not only continues but is expanding and that cataclysmic war on the Korean Peninsula remains a possibility.

Five years after a U.S. administration pondered limited strikes on the peninsula against the advice of security experts, the many factors exacerbating such risks remain — from a lack of communication channels with Pyongyang and decades of pent-up mistrust and the potential for escalation in the event of a misunderstanding.

But it is a mistake to conclude that Washington’s North Korea policy is a failure. The DPRK is but one part of the overall U.S. policy toward the Koreas, a policy predicated not on taming the North but on sustaining the South.

And more often than not, those proclaiming most loudly that Washington’s strategy has failed do so to push engagement-focused solutions that would only aggravate the problems on the peninsula.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol visiting the 2nd Infantry Division/ROK-U.S. Combined Division at Camp Humphreys, April 7, 2022 | Image: United States Forces Korea

FLAWED ASSUMPTIONS

Those who say U.S. policy has failed usually recommend one of several alternative courses of action.

They advise signing a peace treaty with the North that either demands no significant changes in its behavior or assumes that a near-term lack of provocations will persist after it is signed. Or they suggest withdrawing forces from the Korean Peninsula. Or they argue that the U.S. should get out of the way of South Korean governments open to reconciliatory gestures.

More conservatively, some suggest striking a practical deal that allows the North to keep much of its nuclear and missile arsenal in exchange for a short-term agreement that would hopefully result in a broader, deeper and more sustainable one later.

Or as Jeffrey Lewis recently did, they suggest the U.S. recognize the North’s nuclear program as a fait accompli, a proposal I previously addressed.

The same basic argument can refute almost all of these points: The North doesn’t honor its commitments, frequently doesn’t bother to make them in the first place and doesn’t share its interlocutors’ goals of peaceful coexistence.

Those who argue for engaging Pyongyang premised on the failure of U.S. policy tend to believe that engagement can fundamentally change the dynamic on the peninsula.

By contrast, their opponents are not warmongers or regime changers but rather containers who explicitly reject dramatic change. Advocates for regime change are fringe and haven’t had significant influence since H. R. McMaster’s stint as Trump’s national security adviser (John Bolton was only briefly in the former president’s outer orbit).

The result is that the most strident criticism of U.S. policy on North Korea comes from those who feel Washington hasn’t done enough to lower tensions and reduce Pyongyang’s perceived need for nuclear arms. That their alternatives remain so unconvincing — if not outright apologetic for Pyongyang — stems from the flawed belief that U.S. policy has failed.

U.S. President Joe Biden greeting military personnel on the Combat Operations floor at Osan Air Base in Seoul, May 22, 2022 | Image: The White House via Flickr

FOCUS ON THE SOUTH

The success of Washington’s policy is apparent when one looks at South Korea.

As the longtime diplomat David Straub noted in 2016, the U.S. has made a tremendous investment in the ROK, and South Korea has repaid that effort by making itself one of the most successful development cases in the 20th century.

American officials often publicly cite South Korea as one of the greatest successes of American foreign and security policy. In dealing with North Korea, U.S. decision-makers know that, when it comes to a choice, their interests in the South are immeasurably greater than their interests in the North.

What’s more, the last thing that American policymakers want is another war on the Korean Peninsula.

Early on after the Korean War, U.S. policy was not predicated on overthrowing the North but on preventing the resumption of conflict, more because of South Korea’s leadership than the North’s.

As a result, Pyongyang has gotten away with numerous acts of war against the U.S. and South Korea and faced no military retaliation. This is why Washington has never attacked North Korea’s budding nuclear and missile programs.

Straub goes on to note that the U.S. has “a profound interest” in North Korean denuclearization, but this ultimately is of secondary importance to the preservation of South Korea as a liberal democracy and the prevention of conflict.

The reason Washington cannot accept North Korea as a nuclear state is the same reason why it cannot accept regime change as a solution or leave Seoul to its own devices: Such actions put its top two priorities at risk.

There’s little in publicly available records to suggest that U.S. policymakers ever considered Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program so troubling that they would be willing to sacrifice South Korea’s economic and democratic progress to risk a war.

South Korea’s development has only made the goal of preventing war more essential, not only for what it would represent for the U.S. to abandon such a successful partner, but for very practical economic reasons that affect all of us.

U.S. President Joe Biden disembarking Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, May 24, 2022 | Image: The White House via Flickr

SOLUTIONS FETISHISM

Ultimately advocates for engagement need to start formulating better premises. Declaring that a bad idea must be implemented because existing policy has failed is mere solutions fetishism rather than sound policy recommendation.

If one wants to argue that Washington’s tactics toward North Korea have not worked, that is an easier case to make. From President Clinton to the present day, U.S. presidents have treated North Korea like a problem they can bargain, threaten, bribe or charm away.

Even Donald Trump’s administration, which gave North Korea perhaps the most sustained attention in recent decades, evidently believed it could achieve denuclearization within a single term and did not consider that the regime had its own long-term goals that complete denuclearization did not serve.

The State Department and National Security Council can address this by seeking greater representation among experts familiar with the regime’s internal logic. However, the resulting revisions to its approach should not put the higher priority of preserving South Korea at risk.

After all, if the South Korean economy and democracy and the enduring U.S.-ROK alliance are a failure, then who needs success?

3. N. Korea says it tested high-thrust solid-fuel engine to develop new strategic weapon

All warfare is based on deception. Is the regime simply telling us this for some kind of effect or has it really done this?

(2nd LD) N. Korea says it tested high-thrust solid-fuel engine to develop new strategic weapon | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 16, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with more info)

By Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Dec. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has successfully conducted a test to verify the "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" features in developing another "new-type strategic weapon system," according to its state media Friday.

The North's Academy of Defence Science succeeded in the "static firing test of high-thrust solid-fuel motor" with a thrust of 140 ton-force at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Thursday morning, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language report.

The KCNA said the "important test," the first of its kind in the country, has provided a "sure sci-tech guarantee" for the development of another new strategic weapons system.

Observers said the North could have tested the high-thrust engine to advance technologies for developing a new solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Solid-fueled ICBMs are known to be simpler and faster to launch than the liquid-based ones that the North has tested previously, making the U.S. and South Korean militaries harder to detect them. Pyongyang has been seeking to develop solid-propellant engines to gain greater mobility for its missiles.

The engine, if as powerful as the North claims, appears to have a larger thrust than the U.S.-based Minuteman-III ICBM, known to produce around 80 ton-force in the first of the three-stage motor.

It is also comparable to the North's Hwasong-17 ICBM that uses two twin-chamber liquid rocket engines clustered in the first stage, creating a thrust of around 160 ton-force.

During the "field guidance," Kim also highly praised officials at the Academy of Defence Science for having "successfully solved another important problem" in achieving the top priority tasks under a five-year plan set forth at the Workers' Party congress in January last year.

At the party congress, the North laid out plans to advance its weapons, including developing tactical nuclear weapons, hypersonic gliding flight warheads, nuclear-powered submarines and reconnaissance satellites, among others.

Pyongyang has conducted an unprecedented number of ballistic missile launches this year, including last month's test-firing of the Hwasong-17 ICBM, amid growing concerns it may carry out a nuclear test in the coming weeks or months.

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 16, 2022

4. N. Korea seems to be prepping military parade in Pyongyang: Seoul official

Everyone loves a parade. (except the Korean people in the north who have to practice in the cold to look perfect for Kim Jong Un, if he attends).

N. Korea seems to be prepping military parade in Pyongyang: Seoul official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 16, 2022

SEOUL, Dec. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has shown signs of preparing for another military parade in Pyongyang apparently in connection with a major political schedule next year, a South Korean military official said Friday.

NK News, a media outlet on the reclusive state, earlier reported, citing Planet Labs satellite imagery, that thousands of troops have started large-scale training for a parade at the Mirim training grounds in southeast Pyongyang.

It said such a parade could take place on Jan. 8, the birthday of leader Kim Jong-un, or Feb. 8, when the North is to mark the 75th founding anniversary of its Korean People's Army.

"It is difficult to pinpoint the timing (of the parade), but we have been paying keen attention to the signs that (the North) is preparing for a military parade in connection with a political schedule next year," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 16, 2022

5. N. Korea likely to focus on building 'three axes' of its weapons system next year: expert

Excerpt:

"For the goal of the North Korean version of possessing 'two bombs and one satellite,' the North is likely to develop the three axes (of its weapons system) -- intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and reconnaissance satellites," Hong Min, a researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said.

N. Korea likely to focus on building 'three axes' of its weapons system next year: expert | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · December 16, 2022

SEOUL, Dec. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is likely to push forward with the development of its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons as well as reconnaissance satellites next year as Pyongyang seeks to strengthen its nuclear and missile capabilities, according to an expert Friday.

"For the goal of the North Korean version of possessing 'two bombs and one satellite,' the North is likely to develop the three axes (of its weapons system) -- intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and reconnaissance satellites," Hong Min, a researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said.

Hong said the North's possible weapons tests for next year include the firing of solid-fueled ICBMs and the launch of multiple satellites at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground.

The forecast came hours after North Korea announced its successful test of a "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" in developing another "new-type strategic weapon system."

Meanwhile, Hong said he does not expect the North to conduct a nuclear test in the foreseeable future as the move could hamper its ties with China and Russia.

"In consideration that North Korea's trade with China has gradually been improving and Pyongyang has been stepping up its strategic solidarity with China and Russia, a potential nuclear test will likely have a huge repercussion," Hong said.

In terms of technology aspects, the Kim Jong-un regime may also not feel the pressing need to detonate a nuclear device as the country has made public the possession and operation of tactical nuclear weapons, he noted.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · December 16, 2022

6. N. Korea continues to develop military capabilities that pose threat to U.S. and allies: Kirby

Political warfare, bakclamil diplomacy and the development of advanced military capabilities to dominate the peninsula are three lines of effort that are mutually supporting and reinforcing.

(LEAD) N. Korea continues to develop military capabilities that pose threat to U.S. and allies: Kirby | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · December 17, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from a state department spokesman in last 4 paras; ADDS photos)

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea continues to develop military capabilities that pose serious threats to the peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in the Northeast Asian region, a White House official said Friday.

John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, made the remark after North Korea said its leader Kim Jong-un inspected the successful static firing test of a "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" for missiles.

"Again, Mr. Kim continues to pursue military capabilities that pose a threat to the region, to the peninsula, to our allies and partners, to our national security interests," Kirby said when asked about the North's weapons development efforts.

"And that's why we are going to continue to work with Japan and South Korea. (That) is why we are continuing our force presence and our exercises and training on the peninsula and in the region. And it's why we have worked to improve our own intelligence collection capabilities in and around the Korean Peninsula," he added, speaking in a virtual press briefing.

The North Korean report of its latest weapons development test comes after Pyongyang fired 63 ballistic missiles this year, setting a new record that far exceeds its previous annual record of 25.

Kirby reiterated U.S. commitment to engaging with North Korea.

"We again restate our offer to sit down, without preconditions, with Mr. Kim," he said, referring to the North Korean leader.

"We urge him to accept that offer, again without preconditions, so that we can try to find a diplomatic path forward to the denuclearization of the peninsula," he added.

The state department declined to comment directly on the North's latest weapons test, but highlighted the need to hold North Korea accountable for its unprecedented number of missile tests this year.

"We have been very clear over the course of this administration that have condemned numerous provocations by the DPRK, including various ballistic missile launches, including ICBM missile tests," Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson for the state department, said in a daily press briefing.

"And we continue to call on the international community to aid in holding the DPRK accountable," he added.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · December 17, 2022

7. Korea Expected to Beat Japan in Per-Capita GDP

Korea Expected to Beat Japan in Per-Capita GDP

english.chosun.com

December 16, 2022 12:37

Korea is expected to beat Japan in terms of per-capita GDP next year, according to the Japan Center for Economic Research on Thursday. Japan's per-capita GDP is expected at US$33,334 compared to Korea's $34,505.

The center expects Korea to surpass Taiwan in terms of per-capita GDP in 2024 to reach $40,000 in 2025, $50,000 in 2029 and $60,000 in 2035.

At that point, Korea will rank among the top in Asia, while Japan, which used to be the wealthiest Asian country just two decades ago, is expected to be beaten by the four Asian dragons: Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Singapore already beat Japan in 2007 and Hong Kong in 2014.

Last year, JCER forecast Korea would only beat Japan in 2027 and Taiwan in 2028. But the sharp fall of the Japanese yen this year fast-forwarded that date by about four years.

Atsushi Tomiyama at JCER told the Chosun Ilbo, "Continued investments in R&D, intellectual property rights and facilities made by Korean businesses like Samsung Electronics over the last 20 years resulted in higher per-capita GDP."

In other words, the turnaround is not a temporary phenomenon triggered by exchange rate fluctuations. A key index of this trend is capital intensity, or the ratio of capital and labor that goes into production.

If the figure is set at 100 in 2000, Korea's capital intensity surged to 176.3 in 2021, while Japan's stagnated at 106.6.

/Yonhap

When it comes to investment in intellectual property, Korea's level stood at 316.3 in 2021 compared to Japan's 118.1. Thanks to such investments, Korea's labor productivity rate rose 5.9 percent on average each year from 2000 to 2021 but Japan's edged up only 0.6 percent.

Korean businesses invested boldly in next-generation industries such as semiconductors, batteries, electric cars and media content and boosted labor productivity and the economy.

"Japan's negligence compared to Korea and Taiwan in making necessary investments became apparent in the difference in labor productivity," JCER said.

But just like Japan, Korea is weighed down by a declining population and aging society. Japan is home to the fastest-aging society in the world, where 28 percent of the population are over 65, which is the main reason that per-capita GDP has stagnated.

Based solely on the working age population aged 15 to 64, Japan's per-capita GDP of $57,500 is still much higher than Korea's $46,000 and Taiwan's $51,000. Korea is expected to become a super-aged society in 2025 with more than 20 percent of the population aged over 65.

Korea's birthrate, meanwhile, stands at just 0.8, which is even lower than Japan's 1.3, meaning it can easily fall into the same trap as Japan in the next decade.

Japan's Per-Capita GDP Could Fall Behind Korea's

Yen Drops to 20-Year Low Against Dollar

Japanese Economy Officially in Recession

Korea to Outpace Japan in Purchasing Power in 2023

english.chosun.com

8. North Koreans struggle to prepare for the frigid winter weather

I fear the coming months (and years) could be worse for the Korean people in the north than the arduous march of the famine of 1994-1996. We must be observant for indicators of internal instability.

North Koreans struggle to prepare for the frigid winter weather

In North Korea's rural counties and villages, people wear winter clothes that are four or five years old, a source told Daily NK

By Mun Dong Hui - 2022.12.16 6:28pm

dailynk.com

FILE PHOTO: Lines of coal briquettes in North Korea. (Daily NK)

North Korea is in the grips of a cold snap, but people in the country are struggling to prepare for the winter, Daily NK has learned.

A source told Daily NK that many North Koreans face threats to their survival as they are unable to buy warm clothing or heating supplies due to economic difficulties.

The source, who is based in Yanggang Province, said Wednesday that while the weather in the two Hwanghae provinces and other inner regions has remained relatively mild, in northern mountain regions like Yanggang Province and North Hamgyong Province, much snow has fallen and the weather has turned frightfully cold.

“You have to bundle up, but many people feel they can’t buy [new] warm clothing,” he said.

The source said one can find many people in urban areas wearing thick, expensive winter clothing, but in more rural counties and villages, more people wear winter clothes that are four or five years old.

“You can see students at rural schools going to class in ragged, torn winter clothing, and most of them are laborers’ or farmers’ children from struggling households,” he said.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration’s Open MET Data Portal, temperatures in Hyesan, Yanggang Province, dropped as low as -25.8 degrees between Dec. 5 and 12, while the average temperature was -13 degrees.

That means despite the terrible cold weather, many North Koreans are unable to buy proper winter clothing, with poorer provincial residents facing an especially tough time.

LACK OF COAL SPELLS TROUBLE FOR MANY

Moreover, North Koreans are experiencing difficulty obtaining supplies of fuel for heating.

“Well-off families bought two or three tons of coal between September and November to complete their winter preparations, but families that are struggling are making due with barely 100 to 200 kilograms of coal,” he said.

North Koreans usually buy coal to fashion into perforated briquettes to use as heating fuel. Perforated briquettes are the most common fuel for winter heating in the country.

According to the source, relatively comfortable families have secured enough coal, but low-income families are unable to secure a tenth of what they need.

The source said the price of coal has fallen with most coal mines redirecting the coal they have been unable to export during the COVID-19 pandemic to the domestic market, but people in seriously dire economic straits cannot purchase it even if they want to.

“Because of this, in rural districts of South Pyongan Province and North Hwanghae Province, coal just sits there, piling up unsold for several months,” he said. “That’s how little money people have.”

Relatedly, according to Daily NK’s survey data on the price of coal in North Korea from 2020, domestic coal prices are generally falling.

The price of a briquette according to a survey last December was KPW 750 in Pyongyang and KPW 600 in Sinuiju, but this year, the price was KPW 600 in Pyongyang and KPW 500 in Sinuiju, about 20% cheaper.

FOREST PROTECTION EFFORTS MAKE KINDLING LESS AVAILABLE

The source said that many households have had trouble obtaining sufficient kindling as well.

People unable to purchase heating fuel such as coal head to the mountains to collect firewood, but the source said amendments made last year to North Korea’s forestry law have make even this option difficult.

With North Korean leader Kim Jong Un demonstrating great enthusiasm for forestation, crackdowns on and punishments of unauthorized logging are reportedly severe.

The source said that because of this, people can no longer cut down wood from the mountains for kindling like they did in the past.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

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9. US, Seoul aligned on need to change China's behavior: US official

US, Seoul aligned on need to change China's behavior: US official

The Korea Times · December 17, 2022

Mark Lambert, deputy assistant secretary of state for Japan and Korea, is seen speaking in a webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, on Dec. 16, in this captured image. Yonhap

The United States and South Korea are nearly aligned when it comes to the need to shape China's behavior although the countries may use different tactics to do so, a senior U.S. diplomat said Friday.

Mark Lambert, deputy assistant secretary of state for Japan and Korea, also noted the countries are not trying to stop China from playing its rightful role in the international community.

"I think we are generally in alignment," Lambert said when asked if the U.S. viewed its China policy as aligned with that of South Korea in a webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington.

"But of course, every country is going to have its own priorities," he added. "The goal is to try to shape behavior. It is not trying to stop China from having a robust role in the world. It's the globe's second largest economy."

Lambert insisted the way South Korea deals with China cannot but be different from the way the U.S. or any other countries do.

"The Koreans have witnessed how China is willing to use economic coercion to try to push or punish other countries for doing things that China disagrees with," the U.S. diplomat said, citing Beijing's economic retaliation against Seoul following the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile defense system in South Korea.

"Because Korea is so close to the PRC, it is probably not going to be as vocal on everything that it disagrees with about the PRC," added Lambert, referring to China by its official name, the People's Republic of China.

Seoul, however, has recently spoken out rather loudly when it came to maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. official insisted.

"Korea also recognizes and has said so publicly the importance of peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. That body of water is so important to the free flow of commerce for all of us, including a country like the Republic of Korea, but it's so important on the free flow of shipping to and from the Korean Peninsula," said Lambert.

"So there is a recognition in that alignment of views of the critical importance of that part of the world, and that we all should work together to avoid the economic and geopolitical crisis that a conflict across the Taiwan Strait would pose," he added. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · December 17, 2022

10. UN General Assembly passes N. Korean human rights resolution for 18th consecutive year

Some good news.

UN General Assembly passes N. Korean human rights resolution for 18th consecutive year

The Korea Times · December 16, 2022

A North Korean envoy to the United Nations speaks during a U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, shortly before the General Assembly passed a resolution condemning human rights violations in North Korea for the 18th consecutive year in this image captured from the website of the U.N., Dec. 15.

Yonhap

The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday passed a resolution calling for international efforts to improve human rights conditions in the reclusive state.

It marks the 18th consecutive year the world body adopted a resolution on North Korean human rights.

The resolution, sponsored by the European Union, expresses concerns over dire human rights conditions in the impoverished North, while also expressing concerns over what it calls illegal detention, torture and execution of foreign nationals in the country.

The resolution, co-sponsored by South Korea for the first time in four years, calls on Pyongyang to immediately release all related information to the families and countries of foreign nationals detained in the North.

The resolution was unanimously adopted by the Third Committee of the U.N. General Assembly on Nov. 16.

A North Korean envoy to the United Nations said the country rejects and condemns the U.N. resolution, calling it a "great politically-motivated provocation" aimed at undermining the country's socialist system.

"The draft resolution, which is a product of a hostile policy of the United States and its followers against the DPRK, has nothing to do with the promotion and protection of human rights," the North Korean diplomat told the General Assembly meeting shortly before it adopted the resolution without a vote.

"The so-called human rights violation mentioned in the draft resolution cannot exist in our country, where a people-first principle is fully embodied in all spheres of social life," the North Korean envoy added.

The U.N. resolution condemns North Korea for its continued missile tests, saying the country converts its resources from its people for use in its illicit weapons programs.

The latest U.N. resolution on North Korean human rights also came as Pyongyang said it successfully staged a static firing test of high-thrust solid-fuel motor at its Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Thursday (local time).

Pyongyang has conducted 63 ballistic missile tests, including eight intercontinental ballistic missile tests, so far this year, setting a new record that far exceeds its previous annual record of 25. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · December 16, 2022

11. Democracy in retreat and Korea's timely co-hosting of 2023 Democracy Summit

Democracy in retreat and Korea's timely co-hosting of 2023 Democracy Summit

The Korea Times · December 15, 2022

By Yun Byung-se

Quo vadis, democracy? In August, then U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (HCHR) Michelle Bachelet revealed a grim picture of the current state of democracy in her speech titled, "Crisis and fragility of democracy in the world."

She reported that in 2021, the level of democracy enjoyed globally by the average person was down to 1989 levels, backsliding 30 years. Last year, almost one-third of the global population lived under authoritarian rule and the number of countries leaning toward authoritarianism was three times that of those leaning toward democracy. The decline is assessed to be particularly prominent in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, the Asia Pacific, as well as in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.

Freedom House also reported in its "Freedom in the World 2022" report that the present threat to democracy is the product of 16 consecutive years of declining global freedom. Bachelet dubbed it "ailing democracy." Others call it "democratic recession," "democratic decay," or "democracy at default." The unpleasant truth is that the consensus on democratic norms has shown signs of fraying in recent years, with increased polarization, disillusionment and authoritarian patterns of governance, including in some established democracies. Even the 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy stated that "we have not always lived up to our ideals and in recent years, our democracy has been challenged from within."

It is against this backdrop that the U.S., South Korea and three other countries jointly announced, on Nov. 30, the convening of the second virtual Summit for Democracy next March. This event will be a follow-up to the first summit hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden this time last year "to set forth an affirmative agenda for democratic renewal and to tackle the greatest threats faced by democracies today through collective action." Among others, the fact that four countries ―representing Asia (South Korea), Europe (the Netherlands), Latin America (Costa Rica) and Africa (Zambia) ― are co-hosting the summit with the U.S. this time makes a distinction between the two summits.

For the Yoon Suk-yeol government, this co-hosting is a natural corollary of its policy and philosophy, which puts freedom, human rights and democracy on top. It is well reflected in its "global pivotal state" initiative and new Indo-Pacific strategy, and it is also a continuum and expansion of South Korea's growing role in promoting democracy at home and abroad in recent decades.

To illustrate, South Korea served as a member of the 17-country Convening Group for the Community of Democracies (CoD), initiated by the Bill Clinton administration, and hosted the second ministerial meeting of the CoD in Seoul in 2002. It is now a member of both CoD Governing Council and Executive Committee.

It has been a leading member of the Bali Democracy Forum for the Asia-Pacific, inaugurated by Indonesia in 2008. Korea served as an active member of U.N. Human Rights Council five consecutive times, in addition to holding the chairmanship of the council in 2016. The U.N. Human Rights Office in Seoul opened in 2015 as a follow-up to the report of the Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea. South Korea actively supported the "Human Rights Up Front" initiative by then U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

The joint statement on the second Summit for Democracy shared the sense of crisis mentioned above in that democracy and human rights are under threat around the world and democracies are confronting serious challenges from within and outside of their borders.

This time last year, The Economist magazine predicted that the year 2022 would see the rivalry between democracy and autocracy. This situation became a reality. As we are witnessing, the war in Ukraine has shaken the very tenets of the U.N. Charter and the international order. We confirmed that aggressive authoritarianism has posed a big challenge to international peace and stability, undermining the democratic political processes of other countries.

To our relief, many countries including non-democracies also joined the world's democracies in rejecting these behaviors at the U.N. and in many other fora. It reminded us of the longstanding proposition for democratic peace and the need for democratic collaboration, despite some weaknesses of democracies.

The 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy report has made this point clearly. It stated that the range of nations that support the vision of a free, open, prosperous and secure world is broad and powerful. This range includes U.S. allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific as well as key partners around the world that share much of the vision for regional and international order, as well as countries that do not embrace democratic institutions but nevertheless depend upon and support a rules-based international system.

This situation seems to be a major reason why President Biden stressed the need for global democratic renewal and tries to rally the free world under the flag of democracy. Certainly, South Korea is now well positioned to stand together to safeguard peace, human rights, the rule of law and democracy. In the May summit, President Biden and President Yoon reaffirmed their commitments to a global comprehensive strategic alliance "firmly rooted in the shared values of promoting democracy and advancing human rights." Biden especially appreciated Yoon's initiative to embrace greater regional and global responsibilities, and enthusiastically welcomed South Korea for taking a leadership role in the Summit for Democracy process.

But the road to the 2023 summit or to a democratic alliance ultimately will be rough and bumpy. There are challenges galore. Among other things, autocracies as well as non-democracies are also strengthening their collaboration across the world and will continue to do so. Many of them are either Korea's neighbors or close partners in a bilateral context. Sometimes, national interests may conflict with the commitment to democratic principles and universal values, as we have witnessed in several foreign cases this year.

Setting criteria of democracy for invitation purposes is always a tough job and sometimes controversial and sensitive. Not being invited does not necessarily mean that a country is autocratic, as being invited does not indicate a clean bill of health ipso facto. In particular, co-hosting could involve the risk of retaliation: political, diplomatic or economic.

For all that, the Yoon government's decision to co-host the event will be the right move in the right direction at the right time for implementing its global pivotal state initiative. It also reflects the enhanced stature of Korea in the global endeavor to renew and promote democracy and human rights. Last, but not least, It will send an unequivocal message to North Korea, which ranks last in the 2022 Freedom House global index. As Bachelet emphasized, precisely in this moment of uncertainty and unpredictability, we must remain steadfast in our commitment to democracy and human rights. Democracy is resilient.

Yun Byung-se, a former foreign minister of South Korea (2013-2017), is now a board member of the Korea Peace Foundation and a member of several ex-global leaders' forums and task forces, including the Astana Forum and its Consultative Council as well as the Task Force on U.S. Allies and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation sponsored by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The Korea Times · December 15, 2022

12. North Korea Tests New Rocket Engine to Enable Long-Range Missile Strikes

North Korea Tests New Rocket Engine to Enable Long-Range Missile Strikes

Kim Jong Un oversees test of an engine using solid fuel, which can allow missiles to be deployed more quickly and covertly

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-tests-new-rocket-engine-to-enable-long-range-missile-strikes-11671179407?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1

By Dasl YoonFollow

Dec. 16, 2022 3:30 am ET

SEOUL—North Korea tested a solid-fuel rocket engine that is central to quicker deployment of its long-range missiles, delivering on a key weapons goal for leader Kim Jong Un.

Missiles typically use either liquid or solid fuels. With liquid fuels, the process to launch a long-range missile can take hours, making any potential strike more easily detectable. But with solid fuel, the propellants can be stored inside a missile, allowing the weapon to be stashed in a more covert place and launched with more surprise.

On Thursday, Mr. Kim oversaw the test of a “high-thrust solid-propellant motor” that state media championed as part of a new strategic-weapons system. State-media photos published Friday showed Mr. Kim holding a cigarette and smiling in front of a cloud of smoke at the Sohae rocket-launch site. Other images showed flames shooting out from a large, black engine placed on a horizontal test stand.

North Korea has launched dozens of solid-fueled, short-range ballistic missiles this year, designed to evade and penetrate U.S. and allied missile defenses. But the Kim regime’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, which have shown the ability to reach the U.S. mainland, are liquid-fueled.

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Developing a solid-fuel ICBM that can be launched from both land and sea is one of Mr. Kim’s prominent goals for a five-year weapons strategy that he announced in January 2021.

The threat of the Kim regime’s nuclear program is becoming more real as the solid-fuel rocket engine is aimed at advancing its missiles to possess speed and covertness to evade Washington’s missile defenses, said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

“Further engine tests will lead to testing solid-fuel ICBMs, which puts even more pressure on the U.S. and South Korea in countering North Korea’s threat,” Mr. Yang said.

North Korea’s engine test came as International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi visited South Korea this week, vowing an all-out effort to halt North Korea’s nuclear program. On Thursday, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol met with Mr. Grossi, expressing concern over Pyongyang’s race to advance its nuclear and missile program and calling on the agency to help deter North Korea from provocations.

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