October 12, 2020
Personal Note From Nate
I hope this note finds all of you, and your family, healthy and happy. Like many of you, these past few months have been quite an adjustment for my family. It started in March as kids went from the classroom to home instruction. It helps that my wife, Andrea, is a teacher so she was able to structure a learning environment for them at home and I assisted where I could.

The highlight of the summer was our family annual trip to northern Wisconsin in June. We were able to have a quiet week of fishing, swimming, and hiking while enjoying time with cousins and grandparents. Enjoying the great north is something we all look forward to every year.
With many sports and activities canceled we spent many weekends enjoying our state parks, walks around the neighborhood and firing up the grill.

The kids are growing fast. Grace (13) will be celebrating her birthday later this month and she enjoys reading a good book. Isaiah (12) is dedicated to school as he is working to get a scholarship but always has time for Mario. His goal is to move to Japan and work for Nintendo. Noah (9) is my sports fan; he loves anything sports and is always walking around with a ball, driving Andrea crazy as he tosses it in the house. My youngest Noel (6) is my peanut who will celebrate her birthday 2 days before her older sister. She is my pickiest eater and getting down vegetables is always a challenge. It’s amazing that when I started working with LifeStage Wealth Management in May of 2006 Grace was not yet born.
My wife and I just celebrated 18 years of marriage last week Monday. I’m blessed to have such a great spouse and family and look forward to the many adventures we will have in the future. I appreciate all of you and being with you on your journey and learning what truly matters to you.

What is something most people don’t know about you? Growing up I wanted to be a fighter pilot.

What is something most people don’t know about you?
Client Conference Call - Next Week
We will be hosting a client conference call on Wednesday, October 21st at 3:00 pm CST. We will review the the current state of the markets and discuss how COVID and the election could affect the markets as 2020 concludes and into 2021. Please dial (844)860-7947 a few minutes before 3:00 pm and provide the conference ID 2659586. The call will last about 20 minutes and you will have the opportunity to ask questions near the end of the call. If you are unable to listen to the call live, it will be recorded and available at www.lifestagewealth.com under Resources on Thursday afternoon, October 22nd.
The Markets
Yes. No. Maybe?

Markets were sharply focused on the status of stimulus last week. First, it was on. Then, it was off. Then, it might be on. Then, it was off again. There was a big bill. There was a smaller bill. There were stand-alone options.

‘Maybe’ was enough for investors
Major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher, per Barron’s, and global indices were bullish on Friday because of U.S. stimulus talks, reported Financial Times.

“Markets are dizzy from all the talk on both sides about what they want from a deal but believe that something will inevitably happen anyway…Markets are essentially drunk on massive government spending just as they are inebriated from all the Fed quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policy,” said an advisory group chief investment officer cited by Financial Times.

Earnings season is upon us
Another factor that influences investors is earnings season, which begins this week. During earnings season, companies communicate how profitable they were during the previous quarter.

Third-quarter earnings estimates for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index remain subdued. John Butters of FactSet reported, “For Q3 2020, the estimated earnings decline for the S& P 500 is -20.5 percent.”

While that is a significant decline, it is an improvement on -25.3 percent, which was the June 2020 estimate for third quarter earnings. It is also an improvement on second quarter’s -31.9 percent.

Some companies haven’t provided guidance
It’s notable one of four companies in the S&P 500 did not provide earnings per share (EPS) guidance for 2020 or 2021. (Guidance is a forward-looking statement that tells investors what the company expects will happen in the near future.) “Almost all of these companies cited the uncertainty of the future economic impacts of COVID-19 as the reason for not providing or withdrawing EPS guidance for the full year,” reported FactSet.

Certainty about earnings may improve when a treatment or vaccine for the virus becomes available. The Milken Institute reported there are 318 treatments for COVID-19 and 213 vaccines in the works. Thirty-five of the vaccines are in clinical trials.
Where Is Everyone Going?
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You may have read Americans are moving out of cities to escape the coronavirus or violent protests. During the past few months, pundits have said things like, “…the coronavirus pandemic has shifted attitudes about city living, altering the dynamics of the real estate market for years ahead.”

Marie Patino of Bloomberg CityLab decided to look at the data and see if it was true. She gathered information from moving companies, real estate aggregators, and real estate consultants.

As it turns out, people are leaving cities – two cities in particular.

Patino wrote, “According to [moving company] data, between May and August 2020, move requests out of New York City to any destination were up 45 percent, and in San Francisco, up 23 percent, compared to the same time last year.”

Where were people moving?

Some were moving to other cities, continuing trends that had been identified before the pandemic arrived. For instance, San Franciscans began to migrate to Seattle before 2020. Other top destinations for San Franciscans this year have included:

  • Austin, TX
  • Chicago, IL
  • New York, NY
  • Boston, MA

Likewise, New Yorkers had been moving to Los Angeles and the west coast prior to 2020. This year, they also have favored:

  • Atlanta, GA
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
  • West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL
  • Orlando, FL

One real estate aggregator’s 2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report found, “Both urban homes and suburban homes are selling more quickly now than they were in February, and the percent change in time on market has been nearly equal for both classifications. The share of homes selling above their list price in suburban areas vs. urban areas exhibit the same trend nationally.
Weekly Focus - Think About It
“Information is the oil of the 21st century, and analytics is the combustion engine.”
--Peter Sondergaard, Business executive
Nate Hahm | 763.542.8884 | nhahm@lifestagewealth.com