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From the desk of Veryan Khan...
Welcome to 2023!
This first newsletter of 2023, TRAC examines some of the trends that emerged in 2022; which, in turn, become key indicators of what to watch for in 2023. As such, TRAC is offering four key indicators to watch for 2023, offered in no particular order of importance but each holding consequences for those engaging in these industries and locations.
Click the banner below to read our 2023 Critical Analyses.
I can confidently say that Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC) is the best archival digital intelligence company operating today. With over 13 years’ experience and clients ranging from government agencies to private industry, TRAC remains a consistent leader in high quality, human-curated intelligence. But, none of this would be possible without two things: our clients and our analysts.
Thank you to our clients who rely on TRAC as a trusted source to be "in the know" and who strive to protect their operational and human assets, no matter where they are. And thank you to our incredible research associates and analysts, located around the globe, who tirelessly work around the clock to make sure every client is equipped with the most up to date information, putting that intel in their hands before it hits the next news cycle.
Sincerely,
Veryan Khan, President
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TRAC Insight:
Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for December 2022 (Major Threat Areas: Iraq & Syria, Possible Death of ISEA Emir, Three IS Leaders in a Year)
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Image: Number of Attacks Claimed by Islamic State | |
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Unexpectedly, in the month of December, Islamic State (IS) operations around the world remained almost the same in terms of claimed attacks. In the months leading up to December, Islamic State witnessed a significant decline in its operations. If compared to December 2021, there is almost a 45% decrease in its global operations. Nevertheless, TRAC does not assert that this decline in claimed operations affects the group’s capability in any way.
On the contrary, TRAC contends that Islamic State is so widely spread. Indeed, even inside the traditional Caliphate, there are at least nine Islamic State attacks that remain unclaimed in Syria and Iraq during the month of December. This is another indication that IS Central Command doesn’t always get the news in order to claim an incident.
TRAC has speculated at least 9 Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISKP) attacks over the month of December 2022, only two of which have actually been claimed. This is an anomaly by anyone’s standards, especially given their rival jihadi group in Pakistan, the TTP, is claiming at an alarming rate and has even enveloped a new Baloch group under its ranks this month.
Nigeria witnessed another decline in attacks by Islamic State West Africa (ISWA); TRAC speculates ISWA is preparing for the upcoming presidential elections over wasting ammunition and bombs during Christmas which is their typical 'high season'. The Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) did not witness any increase in claimed attacks in the Sahel and is preparing for battles against its AQ-rival JNIM.
In an unusual move, Islamic State significantly increased its activities in Iraq and Syria specifically after the death of IS Caliph Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi. And as for Congo (DR) and Afghanistan/Pakistan, both Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA) and Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) have seen a decline in their activities in comparison to previous months.
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Big News in the Philippines
In December, there was no bigger news than that of the reported death of Abu Zakariya (Zacariah), Emir of Islamic State East Asia (ISEA). ISEA's unofficial media house East Asia Knight (EAK) released a shuhada (martyrs) video to announce the death of their leader. It was reported that Zakariya allegedly died on 06 February 2022 (5 Rajab 1443), which contradicts the Philippine Army announcement about the ISEA transfer of power in March 2022.
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Three IS Leaders in 2022
Looking at the history of the Islamic State, there have been 5 caliphs to date. Even though Abu Umar al-Baghdadi (2006-2010) was the first caliph of the Islamic State, it was Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (2010-2019), who not only established the "Islamic Caliphate" but took the group to greater heights.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was succeeded by Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, who stayed hidden for over two years. From hiding, he led the group’s remnants as they regrouped following the downfall of their caliphate and shifted underground to wage an insurgency in Iraq and Syria. He died in February 2022 in the Idlib province of Syria, only 15 km away from his predecessor. His death comes as IS militants, after years of low-level hit-and-run ambushes, had begun to carry out bolder, higher-profile attacks.
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Abu al-Hassan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi became the next Caliph and lead the group for only 9 months until his death in October 2022. Under his leadership, Islamic State shifted its major focus from Iraq and ash-Sham to the African continent. TRAC is certain that IS is already establishing its next caliphate in West Africa and has been continuously making gains to realize its objective. The territories now controlled by Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) and Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) will merge into one, paving the way for a caliphate that will dwarf the lands held in Iraq and Syria at its height.
The death of Caliph Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi brought a 66% increase in IS operations in Iraq & Syria from November. In December, we saw the Islamic State conducting operations in a number of provinces in Syria, however, the center of gravity is quite clearly ar-Raqqa and al-Khair. It is no surprise that IS insiders predicted a prison break in the city of Raqqa in October 2022 only to force the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fortify prisons in the city.
To bring us to present day, in a highly unusual move, IS Central Command announced the new Caliph before any news of the death of the previous caliph had reached the media. Abu al-Hussian al-Hussaini al-Qurashi was appointed as the new leader and IS affiliates around the world have been pledging oaths of allegiance to him. TRAC contends that the new Caliph will follow the path of his predecessor and will attempt to materialize the dream of making Africa the land of hijrah and jihad.
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TRAC Insight:
Anarchists Motivations, Targets, and Tactics; A 2022 Round Up
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The topic of anarchism, anarchists, and generally any extreme left-wing motivated tactics and targets is an exceptionally under-reported area in Europe, North America and South America. At TRAC, anarchist related attacks are covered on a daily basis, be it on private industry, governmental, and in-person targets.
The tactics employed by anarchists are vast and varied. TRAC has observed that targets and tactics originate in one European country and then quickly spread to the rest of Europe and North America. One successful attack in Germany might promptly be repeated in the United States, then back to another EU nation such as France. Indeed, France has had the largest number of anarchist claims over 2022, followed by Greece and a close third being Germany.
TRAC has documented 305 anarchist-related attacks in 2022. This does not include the instructional manuals or propaganda posters shared among the extreme left-wing community, intended to inspire further attacks. Anarchist have increasingly shifted their go-to attack strategies to target key infrastructure and network sites, especially across France and Germany. Greek anarchists are known to be among the most violent anarchist groups in Europe. Germany, France and Greece all frequently set the standards for other anarchist to copy. Greek anarchists, in particular, have inspired international copy attacks using sledgehammers, incendiary devices, as well we IEDs.
Favored targets are numerous and dispersed and in the past few months alone, they have included police officers, diplomats, ATM machines, luxury car dealerships, high-end retail stores, telecommunication towers, big box stores, supermarkets, courier services, construction firms, and car rental agencies. All businesses operating in related industries, including SPIE, HERTZ, Deutsche Bahn, SFR Bouygues, and Orange, must demonstrate a high level of understanding.
Particularly noteworthy is how anarchists around the world are shown a readiness to strike individuals directly. This is an acceleration trend monitored by TRAC since the start of 2022. A new trend is surveillance of private individuals in both private vehicles and civilians before assaulting either.
Bomb construction is another growing area among the anarchist community. Fire bombing, particularly by making use of incendiary devices and small improvised explosive devices, is the mainstay for anarchist attacks. Manuals on the construction on physical explosives are being shared among anarchists at an alarming rate, as are manuals regarding other forms of attacks, such as the successful de-railing of trains.
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Cross Pollination
Cross pollination between anarchists and climate change activists is at an all time high, with many groups such as the Atlanta Forest Defenders being one and the same, and groups such as Last Generation who are inspired by long-standing anarchist tactics.
Another area of cross pollination is between the extreme far-left and the extreme far-right, which is being closely monitored by TRAC. Although anarchists are ideologically opposed to the extreme far-right, there are many tactical areas that TRAC has monitored in both extreme right-wing supporters, particularly the eco-fascists within the Terrogram Collective, and extreme left-wing players – particularly anarchists.
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Image: Cover of Instruction Manual,
"‘Peer-to-Peer, Encryption, and TOR’, for Safe Communication"
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The most advocated attack of both is that of arson attacks. Channels linked to both sides have argued that arson attacks are a viable tactic insofar as they are cheap, easy to do, and 80% of arson attack cases go unsolved. Furthermore, they have encouraged arson attacks on a variety of targets – most notably, vaccine clinics, synagogues, electrical grids, 5G towers, and gasoline storage plants.
As described above, although ideologically opposed, the topical convergence between the extreme far-left and the extreme far-right represents the ‘horseshoe effect’ and is escalating as TRAC monitors multiple online platforms for both groups. Thus far, convergence has largely been in terms of their desired goals and perceived enemies. Indeed, both milieus identify a common thread: Jewish people are the hidden-hand behind society’s inequalities and any Federal Government’s policies are "draconian."
Both groups highlight environmental degradation, anti-capitalism/ anti-wealth, and rent strikes as issues that 'plague' society. While their motivations differ insofar as extreme right-wing groups seek to incite a race war to establish a white ethno-state and extreme left-wing groups seek the reorganization of wealth and removal of capitalism, both have come to espouse the accelerationist opinion that “there is no political solution.” TRAC contends that these ideological differences are insurmountable to indicate any possible cooperation in the future.
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TRAC Insight:
National Power Grids Under Attack:
Vulnerabilities, Who Is Behind It, Solutions, United States
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Image: Electrical substation | |
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United States power grids have been under attack over the last quarter of 2022. Acts of sabotage on power facilities are not new, however, domestic terrorism targeting the electrical infrastructure has been on the rise. Between September and December 2022 several attacks were carried out across the United States, including in Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington, leaving thousands of utility customers without power for hours or even days.
Though one small white nationalist cell was apprehended before any attack occurred in late February 2022, only one other cell has been apprehended out of the four incidents. The fact that arrests for a single incident have been made will likely inspire more to attempt to target electrical facilities; it is easier to dare to risk attacking infrastructure when the prospect of capture appears to be low.
Although the United States power grid is decentralized, preventing incidents from causing power outages across the whole country, most substations are unguarded, open-air electrical facilities, only protected by fences, hence, making them easily accessible.
What should be noted are the similarities between the September-December attacks. Though some of the methods used are obvious, such as cutting through chain link fencing to obtain access inside the electrical facility, others, are not as readily obvious, suggesting that either the same manual was used or there is some loosely coordinated cell structure between each attack.
To date, it is only the Moore County, North Carolina incident that has been the most celebrated attack by the extreme far-right, a clear indication that it is a flashpoint incident. In fact, Moore County was the only attack within this timeframe that did not fit the pattern of the other attacks, in that a firearm was used to shoot at the electrical facility from a safe distance.
Convergence Between the Right and Left
The extreme far-right in the United States, whether eco-fascists or white nationalists, consistently advocate for attacks on infrastructure to include electrical substations and pylons throughout Europe, United States and Australia. However, to date, not a single attack on infrastructure has been claimed by the extreme far-right, but rather, the extreme far-left. Anonymous anarchists have claimed many infrastructure attacks, mostly on telecommunications and electrical boxes throughout Europe.
Motivation of the Far-Right
TRAC contends that it is not a coincidence that the 03 December attack on the two power substations in Moore County, North Carolina, occurred during a local drag queen event which had been severely contested by extreme far-right groups. A local conservative activist, Emily Grace Rainey published a cryptic message on Facebook stating that "the power is out in Moore County and I know why."
Two short weeks after that attack, on 18 December 2022, a Nazi banner drop from National Socialist Resistance Front (NSRF) was discovered on an overpass across US Highway 1, near the town of Vass in Moore County, North Carolina. The banner praised the 03 December attack on the local power grid by stating "Bring It All Down." NSRF hinted that their supporters were behind the Moore County black out, but fell short of actually claiming credit.
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Image: National Socialist Resistance Front (NSRF) Banner on US Highway 1, Vass, Moore County, North Carolina | |
It is important to note that electrical attacks are repeatedly encouraged by the eco-fascist ideology. Since 2019, TRAC has documented at least 27 instructional guides/manuals on how to effectively target electrical facilities without being caught. One of the biggest issues with protecting the US power-grid system is the vast array of small substations, towers and pylons scattered in remote areas, which are too difficult to monitor 24 hours a day. Even with CCTV cameras running constantly, a person has to monitor the cameras in order to stop an attack before it occurs; the best CCTV cameras can do are to attempt to apprehend the assailants after an attack has occurred. But as seen in the distributed instructional guides, many tips are given on how to hide from the cameras.
Investigators contend that someone with inside knowledge of the electrical equipment is likely involved in the incidents. TRAC does not rule out that electricity companies’ employees, likely motivated by extremist far-right ideologies, are among the authors of the recent attacks on the power substations, in an effort to influence the policy of the government by intimidation or coercion, and even to force the declaration of the state of emergency, as happened in Moore county on 03 December, with the ultimate goal to topple the government.
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TRAC Incident Report: Gunmen Kill Director of the Anti-Terrorism Department and an Intelligence Officer in Khanewal District, Punjab Province, Pakistan | |
TRAC Incident Report: Armed Members of 'Los Mexicles' Drug Gang Attacked a Prison with the Aim of Freeing Their Leader Ernesto Alfredo Pinon de la Cruz, Alias 'El Neto', Killing 14 and Injuring 13, Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico | |
Instructional Advice: Islamic State Insiders How To Evade Intelligence Surveillance and Scraping Tools on Social Media By Using Alternate Spellings and Characters | | | | |
