Quotes of the Day:

"Without freedom there can be no morality."

- Carl Jung

"If you feel pain, you're alive. If you feel other people's pain, you're a human being."

- Leo Tolstoy

“You can sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one man by logic.”

- Robert A. Heinlein, Revolt in 2100/Methuselah's Children

1. N. Korean leader visits barracks with his daughter to mark army founding anniv.

2. Yoon says previous administration relied on 'fake peace'

3. S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold vice ministerial meeting in Washington next week

4. Voice of America needs a reboot

5. N. Korean leader sends condolences to Syria over quake

6. S. Korean team arrives in quake-stricken Turkey to help search, rescue operations

7. North Korea gives clearest sign yet that tweenager is heir apparent

8. Invincible Korean People's Army

9. Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: Foreign Trade Narrative

10. The possibly dangerous direction of North Korean economic policy

11. N. Korea establishes ‘Missile General Bureau’

12. South Korea’s leader calls for unified national security by military, police, government

13. Do Ukraine, Taiwan and South Korea All Need Nuclear Weapons?

14. Kim Jong Un puts daughter front and center at lavish military banquet

15. North Korean leader Kim brings daughter to visit troops

1. N. Korean leader visits barracks with his daughter to mark army founding anniv.

​Photos at the link.  https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230208001651325?section=nk/nk

Kim is using his "respected daughter" as a prop and to distract us. Not only will Kim continue the Songbun or Military First Politics, he is adding "Daughter First Politics" as well.

​

(LEAD) N. Korean leader visits barracks with his daughter to mark army founding anniv. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 8, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with more details; CHANGES photos)

By Kim Soo-yeon

SEOUL, Feb. 8 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has visited the barracks of the country's general-grade officers together with his daughter to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the armed forces, according to state media Wednesday.

In a speech at a banquet Tuesday following his visit, Kim praised the Korean People's Army (KPA) as "the strongest troops in the world," according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

"For the everlasting peace, prosperity and development on this land, we've developed great and absolute power while enduring so many sufferings and pain," Kim said, apparently pointing to the North's nuclear force.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 8, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivering a speech at a banquet the previous day on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the founding of its army. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

He did not deliver any direct message on South Korea or the United States. The visit came amid the possibility that North Korea will stage a nighttime military parade Wednesday for the anniversary.

The North's military parade has been closely watched by outside experts seeking to get a glimpse of the North's latest missile programs and other new military equipment.

Photos released by the KCNA on Wednesday showed Kim Jong-un's apparent second child, Ju-ae, sitting between her father and her mother Ri Sol-ju at the banquet table, surrounded by ranking military officers for a photo shoot.

Kim revealed his daughter Ju-ae to the outside world in November 2022, as Pyongyang's state-controlled media released photos showing them attending the test-firing of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile.

The state media called Ju-ae the leader Kim's "respected" daughter, changing its previous manner of naming her as his "beloved" daughter.

Observers said Kim's public activity with his daughter appears to be aimed at sending a message that he will continue to pursue nuclear force to defend the security of the future generation.

#shorts

Youtube

https://youtu.be/O_amQbK1iM4

This image, captured from footage of North Korea's state-run Korean Central Television on Feb. 8, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (front-R) posing for a photo with his daughter, known as Ju-ae (C), and his wife Ri Sol-ju at a banquet the previous day to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the armed forces. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 8, 2023

2. Yoon says previous administration relied on 'fake peace'

Ouch. I used a "phony end of war declaration" at a meeting yesterday.

There is a lot to parse here beyond the rhetoric.

Excerpts:

"As a result, there was a weakening in combining all national defense powers into one and in the implementation of the nationwide all-out war for the defense of the nation," he said.

The meeting, designed to assess the country's overall defense posture, was attended by some 160 officials and experts from the central and local governments, the National Intelligence Service, the military, police, Coast Guard and national fire agency.

It was the first time in seven years the president presided over the meeting. Yoon said he would preside over the meeting every year from now on.

"The security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the surrounding regions is very grave," Yoon said, citing the possibility of North Korea's strategic provocations, such as a seventh nuclear test and an intercontinental ballistic missile launch.

Yoon says previous administration relied on 'fake peace' | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 8, 2023

By Lee Haye-ah

SEOUL, Feb. 8 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol accused the previous administration on Wednesday of weakening the country's defense posture by neglecting necessary drills and relying on a "fake peace."

Yoon made the remark while presiding over the annual central integrated defense council meeting in an apparent reference to former President Moon Jae-in's push for reconciliation with North Korea.

Critics have argued the Moon administration's peace drive bought North Korea time to advance its missile and nuclear weapons programs.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (C) speaks during a meeting on integrated defense at Cheong Wa Dae, the former presidential office, in Seoul on Feb. 8, 2023. The meeting is aimed at discussing ways to ensure unity of the administrative, military and police branches, as well as civilians, in the country's defense. (Yonhap)

"Under the previous government the meeting was downsized, and integrated drills between the civil sector, government, military and police were not properly implemented because of its reliance on fake peace," Yoon said during the meeting held at the former presidential compound of Cheong Wa Dae.

"As a result, there was a weakening in combining all national defense powers into one and in the implementation of the nationwide all-out war for the defense of the nation," he said.

The meeting, designed to assess the country's overall defense posture, was attended by some 160 officials and experts from the central and local governments, the National Intelligence Service, the military, police, Coast Guard and national fire agency.

It was the first time in seven years the president presided over the meeting. Yoon said he would preside over the meeting every year from now on.

"The security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the surrounding regions is very grave," Yoon said, citing the possibility of North Korea's strategic provocations, such as a seventh nuclear test and an intercontinental ballistic missile launch.

"North Korea's asymmetric provocations and cyber attacks, and various threats of terrorism, are growing and the international security situation is volatile due to the war in Ukraine," he said.

Yoon called for ensuring a watertight integrated defense posture commensurate to North Korea's various forms of provocations.

He also called for properly conducting integrated defense drills that ensure no gaps under the current "grave" conditions.

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 8, 2023

3. S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold vice ministerial meeting in Washington next week

Continued improvement of trilateral cooperation.

S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold vice ministerial meeting in Washington next week | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 8, 2023

SEOUL, Feb. 8 (Yonhap) -- South Korea, the United States and Japan will hold a vice ministerial meeting in Washington next week to discuss the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and ways to boost trilateral cooperation, Seoul's foreign ministry said Wednesday.

South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong will meet Wendy Sherman, deputy U.S. state secretary, and his Japanese counterpart, Takeo Mori, for a tripartite session on Feb. 13, according to the ministry.

The three sides are expected to hold "in-depth and extensive" discussions on expanding trilateral cooperation for stronger deterrence against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, and other regional and global issues.

It will be the third trilateral meeting at the vice-ministerial level to be held under the administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol, the last of which was held in Tokyo last October.

During his visit, Cho will also hold bilateral talks with Sherman and Mori separately, the ministry said, drawing attention to whether Seoul and Tokyo will manage to narrow their differences on the long-standing issue of compensating Korean victims of Japan's wartime forced labor.

The two countries have recently held several rounds of working-level consultations on ways to resolve the issue.

(From L to R) South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Takeo Mori and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman attend a joint press conference at the Iikura Guest House in Tokyo on Oct. 26, 2022, after holding a trilateral meeting on regional and global security issues amid concerns over the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test, in this file photo. (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 8, 2023

4. Voice of America needs a reboot

Yes there have been some bad decisions like in any bureaucracy. If the reports below are true, particularly the Ukraine example, then we must do better.

However, some of the examples are from 2004 and 2016. Have there been any improvements from those examples? If they still persist then that is a problem.  

I think the entire argument here is that a political appointee who is assessed by the author as not qualified has led to a bloated bureaucracy that is causing problems going back to 2004 and 2016. 

I also wonder if the author has ever read a target audience analysis. One size does not fit all.

I notice there is no criticism of the Korean Service of VOA and Radio Free Asia. The Korean Service is doing very good work and I hope it is not branded with the same criticism. I can attest to its great work and the professionalism of their journalists as I deal with many of them almost every day.

Voice of America needs a reboot

Washington Examiner · by Michael Rubin · February 6, 2023

The United States spends almost a quarter of a billion dollars annually on Voice of America (VOA). On paper, it looks like a good deal. It broadcasts in 48 languages around the globe. Resourcing does not matter, however, if leadership fails to deliver. The war in Ukraine shows how, in times of crisis, resourcing matters less than how management spends it.

Consider Ukraine: Perhaps at no time in VOA’s nearly 75-year history of Ukrainian broadcasts has its programming been so important. And, yet, VOA only broadcasts TV programs 5.4 hours per week. Much of this is wasted. While VOA provides a 30-minute TV news broadcast, much of this features international news or reports developments in the U.S. What Ukraine needs is real-time, credible news about the war, not documentaries.

The situation is even worse when it comes to Russian broadcasting . It is important to provide an alternative to the indoctrination inherent in Russia’s media bubble. Yet, VOA only provides 12.5 broadcast hours weekly. Within this, a weekly program dedicated to space and technology reflects misplaced priorities. So too is a weekly program to showcase New York City and "iconic New York spots." Now, more than ever, it is crucial to reach Russians, not simply entertain them.

The problem is reminiscent of the Radio Sawa debacle. The successor to VOA Arabic, Radio Sawa prioritized American and Arab pop music to build a youthful market share. On February 1, 2004, I was in Iraqi Kurdistan with a senior American official when we got word of a large bombing in Erbil. We tuned to Radio Sawa to get news, but got Britney Spears. Ultimately, we had no choice but to rely on Radio Damascus.

The problem is leadership. President Barack Obama appointed Amanda Bennett, a professional journalist, and wife of the Washington Post CEO, to head VOA in March 2016. After President Joe Biden nominated her, the Democrat-led Senate confirmed Bennett to head the U.S. Agency for Global Media in September 2022. There is nothing wrong with a political appointee at the helm, but competence matters. Bennett was an accomplished journalist and editor, but had considerably less management experience. She has fumbled her tenure in three ways.

First, she arbitrarily reduced the number of staffers who could attend editorial meetings. VOA’s choice of coverage should not be secret, however, nor should Bennett avoid debate. Especially, that is, as she is a non-expert presiding over area experts not only at VOA, but across America’s other government-sponsored broadcast platforms.

Second, she has also assembled a top-heavy team, appointing deputies and senior advisors where none existed before and draining resources away from programming. Lastly, she fails to understand the audience and mission. Documentaries may make sense for a traditional American for-profit network or streaming service, but they are a waste of money for VOA and its partners. Nor, should television necessarily be dominant.

When I arrived in Baghdad a few months after the war, Al-Hurra was in its infancy. It had slick production, but the bus drivers, tea house workers, and car mechanics did not have the satellite dishes to receive it. By default, they listened to Iran’s Al-Alam which broadcast terrestrially and on AM radio. Arguably, these Iraqis represented the masses that Washington needed to win over, but never tried. Ukrainian soldiers in the field or their Russian counterparts on the other side of the trenches will not watch documentaries or television; they seek to tune in via shortwave. Will Washington ignore them?

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM RESTORING AMERICA

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is doing a very good job reaching out to Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. To replicate their success, VOA and other outlets need to downsize bureaucracy and increase news programming. Save the entertainment and travelogues for a time when the liberal order is not on life support. Congress may want to investigate Bennett and VOA for protecting an employee who falsified her credentials but, frankly, this is the tip of the iceberg. It is time for a far broader examination of VOA and its governing body.

Michael Rubin ( @mrubin1971 ) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Washington Examiner · by Michael Rubin · February 6, 2023

5. N. Korean leader sends condolences to Syria over quake

The members of the authoritarian club and the community of democracies line up over the earthquake.

N. Korean leader sends condolences to Syria over quake | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 8, 2023

SEOUL, Feb. 8 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has sent a message of condolences to his Syrian counterpart over the latest earthquake that has claimed more than 7,800 lives in Turkey and Syria, according to state media Wednesday.

In the message sent to President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday, Kim voiced his condolences to victims of the powerful quake that struck the northern region of Syria, according to the state-run radio network Korean Central Broadcasting Station.

"I am sure that under your leadership, the Syrian government and the people will overcome damage from the quake as quickly as possible and the lives of affected people will be stabilized," the message read.

Syria is one of several nations with which the North has maintained friendly ties amid multiple U.N. sanctions over its nuclear and missile programs.

Meanwhile, there have been no reports from the North's state media over whether Kim has also sent a message of condolences to Turkey, which sustained heavier damage from the quake.

Youtube

https://youtu.be/cqUBJhB0Heo

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 7, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presiding over an enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 8, 2023

6. S. Korean team arrives in quake-stricken Turkey to help search, rescue operations

north Korea sends condolences to Syria and South Korea sends condolences to Turkey and takes action deploying resources and personnel.

In addition, South Korea continues to show thanks to countries that fought in the Korean War to defend the freedom of South Korea.

S. Korean team arrives in quake-stricken Turkey to help search, rescue operations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · February 8, 2023

SEOUL, Feb. 8 (Yonhap) -- A team of more than 110 South Korean workers arrived in Turkey on Wednesday to support the country's ongoing search and rescue operations following a devastating earthquake earlier this week, according to Seoul's foreign ministry.

A KC-330 military tanker transport aircraft carrying 118 people, including 50 military personnel and 60 firefighters, landed at Gaziantep Airport in Turkey's southeastern region earlier in the day, the ministry said.

The city of Gaziantep is located near the epicenter of the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck the country's southern region and Syria as well Monday, leaving thousands of people killed.

A KC-330 military tanker aircraft carrying 118 rescue workers and relief supplies takes off at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul, on the night of Feb. 7, 2023, to head for quake-devastated Turkey, in this photo provided by the Air Force. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The South Korean team will operate in various sites across the areas affected by the earthquake at the request of the local authorities.

Meanwhile, Lee Do-hoon, South Korea's second vice foreign minister visiting South Africa, has decided to cut his trip short and return to Seoul to coordinate cooperation with the Turkish government, his office said.

On Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered the government to quickly send rescue workers and medical supplies to the country. Foreign Minister Park Jin also spoke with Murat Tamer, the Turkish ambassador to South Korea, and pledged to provide active support to the quake-hit nation.

South Korea has issued a special travel advisory for six provinces in Turkey's southeastern region, including Kahramanmaras, Malatya and Adiyaman, following the earthquake.

A South Korean rescue team departs Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul, for quake-devastated Turkey on the night of Feb. 7, 2023. The members are from the foreign and defense ministries, National Fire Service, Special Warfare Command and Korea International Cooperation Agency. (Yonhap)

odissy@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · February 8, 2023

7. North Korea gives clearest sign yet that tweenager is heir apparent

It seems to me to be a big leap from showing her off at a missile launch and then having dinner with some generals to name her as the heir apparent.

I think first she is being used as a prop. Note how she is distracting us. Kim is giving us something to focus on. Just remember that as you look at her and consider her life as royalty in the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime there are another 25 million people who are suffering and sacrificing for her charmed life. She may be just another tool in Kim's political warfare toolbox.

North Korea gives clearest sign yet that tweenager is heir apparent

The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · February 8, 2023

SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has given the clearest signal yet that he is positioning his middle-school-aged daughter as his successor, analysts say, after a raft of official photos showed the girl holding center stage in a banquet hall full of military top brass.

The photos, released by the state Korean Central News Agency on Wednesday, were said to be from a celebration in Pyongyang the night before, on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army.

The photos show Ju Ae, who is believed to be about 10 or 11 years old, in the middle of all the photos — a spot usually reserved for the leader himself. The girl’s hair is styled to look like the do worn by her stylish mother, first lady Ri Sol Ju, and she wears a no-nonsense black skirt suit and sensible shoes.

As they walk into the banquet hall, military leaders, their jackets bedecked with medals, stand to applaud. At the table, top generals stand behind the first family, beaming with wide smiles.

The banquet was held in the Yanggakdo Hotel, on an island in the river that runs through Pyongyang. This is the same hotel where American student Otto Warmbier was staying before an incident that led to him being detained and rendered brain dead.

The congratulatory scenes were laid out across the front page of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper on Wednesday morning, ahead of an expected military parade to mark the anniversary.

At the banquet, Kim Jong Un called for development of the country’s military. “Let us all redouble efforts and work harder to strengthen and develop our army and to achieve the prosperity and development of our socialist country,” he was quoted as saying.

The report didn’t provide the girl’s name or age, identifying her only as Kim’s “respected daughter” — the first time that adjective has been applied to her, an apparent upgrade from the previous “beloved.” But she is believed to be the girl called Ju Ae whom retired National Basketball Association star Dennis Rodman held as a baby during a visit to Pyongyang in 2013.

The media presentations of the daughter constitute an “active push” from Pyongyang to raise her profile, said Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea leadership expert at the Sejong Institute outside Seoul.

“Given these developments, there is no longer a question about whether Kim Ju Ae has been chosen as Kim Jong Un’s successor,” he said.

While North Koreans — who have been told from birth that the Kim family hails from a vaunted blood line and that it is only right that the family should rule — might accept a fourth-generation ruler, it remained to be seen whether the highly patriarchal system would accept a female ruler, Cheong said.

The photos underscore the importance of the military in maintaining the Kim family’s claim to legitimacy.

Kim Jong Un was announced to the military as his father’s successor when he was only 8 years old, according to his aunt.

At his eighth birthday party in Pyongyang, Kim was given a general’s uniform decorated with stars, and real generals with real stars bowed to him and paid their respects to him from that moment on, said Ko Yong Suk, who was at the party.

“It was impossible for him to grow up as a normal person when the people around him were treating him like that,” Ko said in an interview with The Washington Post in 2016.

Kim Jong Un’s daughter made her first public appearance in November, when she accompanied him to a missile launch site and inspected a missile with him while holding hands, according to a photo published by North Korean state media. Then she was called his “beloved” daughter.

Another photo showed the pair, together with Ri, at an observation platform during a missile launch. The photos were from intercontinental ballistic missile launch — the second launch of its kind that month — according to state media.

Kim was trying to both emphasize his family’s roots and use them to underscore the foundation of North Korea’s nuclear development, said Thae Yong-ho, a South Korean lawmaker who was a top North Korean diplomat before he defected in 2016.

This is a signal that the weapons program, the crux of the regime’s survival strategy, is here to stay, he said. “By showing his daughter next to the ICBM, [Kim] is announcing to the world and his people that [North Korea] will never give up its nuclear program and it will be carried on throughout his lineage,” Thae said.

Kim Jong Un is the third generation of his family to rule the totalitarian state since it was founded by his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, in 1948. After Kim Il Sung died in 1994, his son Kim Jong Il took over, ruling until the end of 2011, when he was succeeded by Kim Jong Un, who is now 39.

Kim Jong Un fueled widespread speculation about his succession planning after showing off his daughter for the first time at the end of last year. But the question of whether a woman could run North Korea is a complex one, female defectors and researchers say.

Although women hold some powerful positions in the regime — there’s Kim’s sister and top aide, Kim Yo Jong; Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui; and Hyon Song Wol, who directs security and logistics for the leader’s public events — North Korea remains a deeply male-dominated society.

Kim Jong Un’s motivation in releasing his daughter’s picture was not to depict her as a potential future leader but to portray himself as a fatherly figure for political purposes, Kim Seok-Hyang, a professor at Ewha Woman’s University, said after the first photos came out last year. Breaking the ultimate glass ceiling is not yet politically viable given the country’s male-dominated hierarchy, she added.

The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · February 8, 2023

8. Invincible Korean People's Army

Some revisionist history from the regime. I think we have a different interpretation of the Panmunjom Ax murder in 1976.

The acute military confrontations provoked by the enemy, including the Panmunjom incident in the 1970s and the incident of a downed U.S. army spy helicopter in the 1990s, all ended in the DPRK's victory.

Invincible Korean People's Army

Date: 08/02/2023 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1675848882-227442169/invincible-korean-peoples-army

Pyongyang, February 8 (KCNA) -- February 8, Juche 37 (1948) when President Kim Il Sung founded the Korean People's Army, the regular revolutionary armed forces, is a historic day of epochal significance in building the revolutionary armed forces and accomplishing the revolutionary cause of Juche.

The KPA has covered a proud path of victory and glory under the outstanding and tested guidance of President Kim Il Sung , Chairman Kim Jong Il and the respected Comrade Kim Jong Un ever since its founding.

The KPA, which carried forward the tradition of the anti-Japanese war, resolutely repulsed the invasion by the U.S. imperialists, who boasted of being the "strongest" in the world, in the 1950s and won a great victory in the three-year Fatherland Liberation War.

In the 1960s, the KPA mercilessly sank, captured and shot down the enemy's Escort Craft 56, the U.S. imperialists' armed spy ship Pueblo and the large-sized spy plane EC-121 which had intruded into the inviolable territorial waters and airspace of the DPRK, thus showing its might and spirit before the world.

The acute military confrontations provoked by the enemy, including the Panmunjom incident in the 1970s and the incident of a downed U.S. army spy helicopter in the 1990s, all ended in the DPRK's victory.

The KPA has grown as a powerful army capable of coping with any modern warfare, possessed of all-powerful Juche-based tactics and ever-victorious experience in the new century of Juche.

The actual war drills including the firing drills by the long-range artillery sub-units on the front and the flying corps of the air force and the military drills by the units for the operation of tactical nukes, the test-fire of a new-type submarine-launched ballistic missile, the test-fire of a ultra-fast hypersonic missile and the test-fire of a new-type ICBM Hwasongpho-17 struck terror into the hostile forces resorting to reckless moves to provoke a war of aggression.

Peace and security on the Korean peninsula are firmly defended by the heroic Korean People's Army demonstrating its invincible strength. -0-

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.2.8.)

9. Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: Foreign Trade Narrative

Unfortunately I think Kim's economic policy making consists simply of prioritizing nuclear weapons and missiles over the welfare of the Korean people in the north. 

Conclusion:

Our research on North Korea’s economic policymaking, as seen through its academic journals, has shown that Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu served as a platform for dueling narratives on sensitive or controversial topics, such as economic reform or defense spending, despite the conventional wisdom that there can be no dissent or inconsistencies in North Korean publications. Although the views supporting economic reform prevailed for a time, the North’s shift to conservatism across all realms in recent years has taken a toll on its trade policy as well. This has been most recently exemplified by Kim Jong Un’s report to a party plenary meeting in December 2022.

Previously, the North Korean cabinet in February 2022 pledged to “keep pushing forward the work to recover the unitary trade system of the state,” which is a far cry from the “newly granted rights” of enterprises the economic journals supported in the past. At the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021, Kim Jong Un said, “external economic activities are premised on being directed toward supplementing and reinforcing the foundation and potential of the self-supporting economy.”[12] Kim’s language mirrored the above-cited 2016 Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu article on subordinating foreign trade to the construction of a “self-supporting national economy” and indicated Pyongyang’s conservative shift on trade at the highest level.

Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: Foreign Trade Narrative

• BY: ROBERT CARLIN AND RACHEL MINYOUNG LEE
• FEBRUARY 6, 2023

https://www.38north.org/2023/02/understanding-kim-jong-uns-economic-policymaking-foreign-trade-narrative/?utm_source=pocket_saves

Attention on North Korean external trade tends to focus on the numbers, the import-export balance or earnings from specific export commodities, such as coal. The most recent spate of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions was designed to limit export of commodities on the grounds that earnings from these have been funding the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK or North Korea) weapons programs.

However, in this piece, we will examine trade from the perspective of underlying internal policy discussions, and to some extent, the differences in view about trade as both an economic and a political act. As we have done throughout this series of articles, we rely on Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu and the Journal of Kim Il Sung University, which is also known as Hakpo, as our primary resources.[1] These journals have been the North Korean regime’s premier economic journals in which new ideas have been introduced and discussed.

To some extent, trade has been the easiest of the various topics that we have tackled thus far. This is because the discussions in the journals are more straightforward and, with few exceptions, are less centered on ideological axles than others.

In this article, we review these journals’ invocation of the socialist enterprise responsibility management system (SERMS)—Kim Jong Un’s key reform initiative meant to give greater latitude to individual economic units across planning, production, and management of resources and profits—to justify new ideas on foreign trade. We then examine the journals’ handling of diversification, one of Kim’s key instructions related to foreign trade and the sensitivities involved in trading with capitalist countries. Although the views supporting economic reform prevailed for a time in the economic journals, the North’s shift to conservatism in recent years has taken a toll on its trade policy.

Decentralizing Trade

The arguments for and against new ideas about trade that are presented in these journals follow familiar lines. They usually start with providing some orthodox views before pushing against the boundaries of what has been considered acceptable thus far.

Notably, several articles are built on Kim Jong Un’s economic reform initiatives to justify new ideas on trade. For example, two articles in 2015—one published in the July edition of Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu and the other in Hakpo later that year—cited SERMS as supporting the decentralization of the external trade sector and giving greater trade autonomy to individual enterprises. As we noted in an earlier piece, SERMS was mentioned for the first time in a Hakpo article at the end of 2014, but it was not until the spring of 2018 that the two journals started discussing SERMS and its specific aspects in earnest. As such, these two aforementioned articles on foreign trade are among the earliest to use SERMS as a way to advocate for additional new policies.

After noting that “all independent-accounting enterprises” should “carry out business activities proactively and with initiative, in line with the requirements of SERMS,” the Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu article went on to argue:

Today’s actual condition where [we] have come to deal with only capitalist markets calls on all independent-accounting enterprises to carry out external economic activities proactively. Independent-accounting enterprises should actively realize the modernization of equipment and production and technical processes while resolving [the issue of] necessary raw and other materials and equipment on their own. They should do so by proactively carrying out external economic activities to the extent possible with the trade rights granted by the state. To that end, independent-accounting enterprises should fully guarantee the funds necessary for the production of trade goods.[2]

The Hakpo article went even further, detailing a wide range of “newly granted rights” that those enterprises had under SERMS:

Under the SERMS, trade, equity joint venture, and contractual joint venture rights include the rights of enterprises to independently enter into and fulfill trade contracts or equity joint venture and contractual joint venture contracts; establish and use export bases; independently conduct interviews overseas; engage in international communications with foreign counterparts; sell the enterprise’s products to foreign countries; make external payments through independent accounts with domestic and foreign banks; receive income distributed according to the investment ratio; and deal with contract violation incidents by means of arbitration and such.[3]

Diversifying Trade

In a recent article discussing Europe’s inflation and energy issues, the North Korean Foreign Ministry website admonished: “One of the ways out of the current economic crisis is to diversify external trade. This is common economic knowledge.”[4]

The diversification of trade is a principle that Pyongyang preaches, not just for other countries to follow. It is an oft-repeated policy the North itself has attempted to implement for years. Kim Jong Un, for example, called for “making foreign trade multilateral and diversifying it so as to smash the hostile forces’ sanctions and blockade maneuvers” at a party plenary meeting in March 2013.[5] At the Seventh Party Congress in 2016, he said, “one-sidedness should be removed in foreign trade,” and even noted: “[We] should… advance multifaceted exchange and cooperation with even capitalist countries.”[6]

In keeping with Kim’s instructions, the two journals have published multiple articles on the importance of diversifying trade.

One Hakpo article in 2016 emphasized that foreign trade was key to becoming an economic power, saying:

A self-supporting economic power is by no means a country with an ‘isolated economy’ or a “closed economy.” Rather, it is a country commanding a high level of external economic authority that, with strong external economic competitiveness, takes the lead in expanding and developing external economic relations with many countries around the world…A country’s external economic authority is enhanced by expanding and developing its external economic ties.[7]

The same article went on to explain the meaning of “removing one-sidedness” and “diversifying trade” as:

[We] should remove one-sidedness in foreign trade and diversify it. To remove one-sidedness in foreign trade and diversify it means to not limit trade partners to one specific country and to expand and develop it to various countries around the world…In order to remove one-sidedness in foreign trade and diversify it…[we] should develop trade even with capitalist countries that recognize our country’s sovereignty and treat us in a friendly manner.

One common theme of these passages is developing trade with multiple countries across the world rather than “one specific country,” possibly echoing the North Korean leadership’s concern—including Kim Jong Un’s, as he called for diversifying and removing one-sidedness in trade—about the country’s overdependence on China.

In April 2019, another author in Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu expressed this concern more bluntly while expressing confidence in the North’s improved trade prospects on the grounds of its “external environment.” He wrote:

In the past, the foreign trade sector was unable to remove one-sidedness and develop foreign trade in a diversified manner. This has largely to do with the fact that it was unable to improve foreign trade negotiations in line with the realities of our country’s economic development and the continuously changing and evolving global trade development trends. The scope of our foreign trade negotiating partners was too concentrated in a certain country and region…

Such an objective reality shows that it is necessary for our country to expand as much as possible its foreign trade negotiating partners not only to Asian markets, including our neighboring regions, but also to Europe, the Americas, Oceania, and Africa; study the characteristics of markets at different levels of development, such as free trade areas, customs unions, common markets, and economic alliances created and operated among regional countries; and formulate and carry out negotiation strategies to broaden trade relations…[8]

This article appears to have been written in the lead-up to the second US-DPRK summit in Hanoi in February 2019. It is also possible that the article was published despite the summit’s failure because Pyongyang was still hopeful of there being some kind of breakthrough with Washington at some point that year.

Trading With Capitalist Countries

It must be noted that some journal articles, even while supporting the idea of trade itself or the diversification of trade, have voiced concerns about the potential fallout from trading with capitalist countries.

One Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu article in 2016 clarified that trade was only intended to supplement North Korea’s efforts to build a “self-supporting national economy”:

Developing foreign trade on the basis of building a self-supporting national economy is the material guarantee that enables us to advance foreign trade on the principle of complete independence and equality…

Without one’s own things, one cannot buy necessary products or goods from other countries. Moreover, today’s reality, where we must conduct trade relations with capitalist countries, shows that independent and equal trade relations can be expanded and developed only when trade relations are advanced on the basis of one’s own economic foundation…

If we rely on imports for things that we can easily take care of by our own efforts, it would not contribute to the construction of a self-supporting national economy but rather weaken the revolutionary spirit of self-reliance, promote dependence on other countries, and increase foreign currency expenditure.[9]

Another Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu article, published earlier in the same year, explicitly stated that “political interests” were key to selecting target markets and warned against forging economic ties with political strings attached:

The important thing when selecting a target market is to first weigh political interests well. Ensuring political interests is a fundamental requirement that must be met in selecting a target market. From this, in target market selection, we should not carry out economic transactions with countries that have hostile relations with our country or raise unfair political side conditions for economic exchange.

Right now, imperialist countries, including the United States, are forcing unreasonable political demands on developing countries and independent countries.

Therefore, we should firmly adhere to the principle of not allowing trade with countries that could generate political losses, though it may be economically advantageous.[10]

One Hakpo article, carried in late 2015, went a step further and called on developing countries to step up trade cooperation, defining current trade relations as “subordinate and predatory created by the imperialists.”[11]

Conclusion

Our research on North Korea’s economic policymaking, as seen through its academic journals, has shown that Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu served as a platform for dueling narratives on sensitive or controversial topics, such as economic reform or defense spending, despite the conventional wisdom that there can be no dissent or inconsistencies in North Korean publications. Although the views supporting economic reform prevailed for a time, the North’s shift to conservatism across all realms in recent years has taken a toll on its trade policy as well. This has been most recently exemplified by Kim Jong Un’s report to a party plenary meeting in December 2022.

Previously, the North Korean cabinet in February 2022 pledged to “keep pushing forward the work to recover the unitary trade system of the state,” which is a far cry from the “newly granted rights” of enterprises the economic journals supported in the past. At the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021, Kim Jong Un said, “external economic activities are premised on being directed toward supplementing and reinforcing the foundation and potential of the self-supporting economy.”[12] Kim’s language mirrored the above-cited 2016 Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu article on subordinating foreign trade to the construction of a “self-supporting national economy” and indicated Pyongyang’s conservative shift on trade at the highest level.

The next installment in this series will explore how North Korea actually used the Juche ideology to build the case for, rather than against, expanding foreign trade.

1. [1]
2. This paper is the third in the “Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking, Part 2” series, which focuses on the external elements of North Korea’s economic policy. The first installment of Part 2 was on Kim Jong Un’s tourism policy; the second installment dealt with his economic development zone policy. This series uses a modified version of the McCune-Reischauer romanization system for North Korean text. Diacritics are replaced with apostrophes. Some proper nouns follow internationally recognized spellings or North Korean transliterations instead.
3. [2]
4. Quote translated from 김명심, “현시기 독립채산제기업소들에서 무역상품생산에 필요한 자금보장에서 지켜야 할 기본요구,” Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu 3, (2015).
5. [3]
6. Quote translated from 김홍일, “대외경제관계를 다각적으로 발전시키는데서 나서는 중요문제,” Kim Il Sung Chonghaptaehakhakpo (Ch’o’rhak, Kyo’ngje) 4, (2015).
7. [4]
8. Son U Jin, “Europe’s Dependence on Others: What Does It Show?” North Korean Foreign Ministry website, January 18, 2023.
9. [5]
10. “경애하는 김정은동지께서 조선로동당 중앙위원회 2013년 3월전원회의에서 하신 보고,” Rodong Sinmun, April 2, 2013.
11. [6]
12. “조선로동당 제７차대회에서 한 당중앙위원회 사업총화보고 김정은,” Rodong Sinmun, May 8, 2016.
13. [7]
14. Quote translated from 장순남, “대외경제관계를 확대발전시키는것은 사회주의경제강국건설의 중요요구,” Kim Il Sung Chonghaptaehakhakpo (Ch’o’rhak, Kyo’ngje)4, (2016).
15. [8]
16. Quote translated from 김현철, “현시기 대외무역협상사업을 개선하는것은 대외무역발전의 필수적요구,” Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu 2, (2019).
17. [9]
18. Quote translated from 리순철, “자립적민족경제와 대외무역의 호상관계를 밝혀주신 위대한 령도자 김정일동지의 불멸의 사상리론적업적,” Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu 4, (2016).
19. [10]
20. Quote translated from 태영남, “무역의 다각화전략작성에서 나서는 몇가지 문제,” Kyo’ngje Yo’ngu 1, (2016).
21. [11]
22. Quote translated from 리경영, “발전도상나라들사이의 무역협조를 강화하는데서 나서는 중요문제,” Kim Il Sung Chonghaptaehakhakpo (Ch’o’rhak, Kyo’ngje) 4, (2015).
23. [12]
24. 본사정치보도반, “우리 식 사회주의건설을 새 승리에로 인도하는 위대한 투쟁강령 조선로동당 제８차대회에서 하신 경애하는 김정은동지의 보고에 대하여,” Rodong Sinmun, January 9, 2021.

10. The possibly dangerous direction of North Korean economic policy

North Korean Economy Watch

nkeconwatch.com

The possibly dangerous direction of North Korean economic policy

February 7th, 2023

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

The North Korean economy really do seem to be going from bad to worse. I was slightly optimistic at the beginning of the year that trade with China (and to an increasing extent Russia) would move back toward its pre-Covid-normal or even increase given international tensions.

But what if the state simply doesn’t want that to happen? We’ve seen a clear retrenchment in overall economic policy, and the state has centralized foreign trade. But what if it wants to lower foreign trade overall? Self-reliance, after all, remains the core ideology.

This recent report from Daily NK sources in Yanggang seems to suggest as much, where trade cadres have been told off by the Party for pushing for too much for trade to scale up. Sounds to me like they’re just doing their jobs.

This hasn’t been confirmed as a broader policy, and we need much, much more information to say anything concrete. But the report is an interesting data point and a worrying one. Even more retrenchment from global trade would be potentially disastrous for the population.

It is of course possible that the report only represents a specific instance and has more to do with internal political or financial feuds than with anti-trade sentiments. All this is more speculative than predictive.

But, I do think we need a broader, and perhaps more speculative debate, on worst-case-scenarios inside North Korea. I don’t think we’re near 1990s-levels yet, but the economy is incredibly fragile to begin with and policies right now seem both messy and dangerous.

11. N. Korea establishes ‘Missile General Bureau’

Military First Politics continues. But what have we seen in the parade? We should be seeing reports soon

N. Korea establishes ‘Missile General Bureau’

donga.com

Posted February. 08, 2023 07:53,

Updated February. 08, 2023 07:53

N. Korea establishes ‘Missile General Bureau’. February. 08, 2023 07:53. by Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com.

North Korea is reportedly to have launched a “Missile General Bureau” overseeing missile development. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un presided over an enlarged meeting of the party’s Central Military Commission on Monday, bolstering war readiness posture. This has marked Kim’s first public appearance in 36 days since Jan. 1, when he showed up to pay respects at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun.

“The leaders had an in-depth discussion on major military and political agendas for 2023 and the future direction of military buildup (at the enlarged meeting),” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Tuesday.

The full title “DPRK Missile General Bureau” and the symbol of the bureau were printed upon a flag behind Kim Jong Un sitting at the meeting seen in a picture disclosed by the North Korean news agency. The symbol shows a flying missile, which is estimated to be the North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-17.

Pundits suggest the North will disclose super-sized rocket launchers capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons at its military parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the foundation of the North Korean armed forces. “The North Korean regime may present new cruise missiles and 600mm multiple rocket launchers that can carry a nuclear warhead at this year’s military parade,” former USFK Commander Robert Abrams said, according to Radio Free Asia (RFA).

The Voice of America (VOA) said on Sunday that satellite photographs acquired by Planet Labs on Saturday showed several green and red dots, respectively, in the shape of “75” and “2·8” in the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang.

한국어

donga.com

12. South Korea’s leader calls for unified national security by military, police, government

South Korea’s leader calls for unified national security by military, police, government

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · February 8, 2023

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol leads a meeting with senior officials during the annual Central Integrated Defense Council forum in Seoul, Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2023. (South Korea’s Presidential Office)

CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — South Korea’s president described the security climate on the Korean Peninsula as “very fraught” on Wednesday and called on law enforcement agencies and the military to establish “an all-out national security posture.”

Citing threats from North Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol, called for a more unified approach to national security during a high-level defense meeting.

“Security in the past was a concept of ‘the military fights, private citizens support,’ but currently we’re unable to separate the frontline and the rear,” Yoon said, according to a summary of the meeting provided by his office. “Eventually, all that matters is an all-out national security.”

Dozens of senior officials from South Korean ministries, law enforcement, intelligence agencies, the military and local government gathered in Seoul for a Central Integrated Defense Council meeting led by the president for the first time since 2016, according to the summary.

The annual meeting evaluates and plans South Korea’s security and this year included Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and National Police Agency Commissioner General Yoon Hee Keun.

South Korea should be prepared for a wide range of North Korean threats, including nuclear weapons, missiles and cyberattacks, Yoon said, according to his office. He said he would continue to preside over the meeting for the remainder of his five-year term.

The meeting was held on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean army. The communist regime routinely holds grand military parades to commemorate anniversaries and recent satellite images from 38 North, a North Korea-monitoring organization, indicated preparations were underway for a parade.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday in a news release it was closely monitoring North Korea for a potential parade.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at an anniversary banquet said he led the “strongest army in the world,” according to a Korean Central News Agency report Wednesday. On Tuesday, the state-run outlet said the ruling party called for increasing the number of “combat drills” this year in preparation for a war.

North Korea launched roughly 75 missiles on 36 separate days of testing last year, including one that landed near Japanese territory in November. Pyongyang last fired a short-range ballistic missile on Jan. 1.

David Choi

David Choi

David Choi is based in South Korea and reports on the U.S. military and foreign policy. He served in the U.S. Army and California Army National Guard. He graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · February 8, 2023

13. Do Ukraine, Taiwan and South Korea All Need Nuclear Weapons?

This is where I fundamentally disagree with my friend Doug Bandow. I think America's security comes first when we deter war in Korea (and Taiwan and Japan). Ukraine is now a different story with Putin's War.

Excerpts:

U.S. security should come first. Risking the American homeland on behalf of anything short of an existential threat—an attack on the U.S. itself—is not just foolish, but also a betrayal of Washington’s responsibility to its own people. Moreover, the promise to risk destruction on behalf of other nations is becoming less believable.

Noted Foreign Policy’s Stephen Walt: “convincing people you might use nuclear weapons to defend an ally isn’t easy.” With the potential of American involvement in hot conflicts involving Russia, China, and North Korea, possibly simultaneously, the U.S. should rethink its commitments, especially to fight nuclear wars for other nations.

There are obvious downsides to proliferation, but only the second-best security solutions are available today. Instead of arbitrarily ruling out what might be the most realistic option, the relative costs and benefits of friendly proliferation and extended deterrence should be compared and debated. And the interests of the American people should be emphasized. For they are who Washington’s foreign policy elites are supposed to serve.

Do Ukraine, Taiwan and South Korea All Need Nuclear Weapons?

19fortyfive.com · by Doug Bandow · February 8, 2023

Nuclear weapons nonproliferation is one of the most sacred totems in U.S. foreign policy. America’s commitment to preventing even its closest democratic allies from acquiring nuclear weapons has left Washington with a gaggle of dangerous nuclear commitments around the world. In principle, if, say, Montenegro is threatened militarily, the U.S. is committed to using nuclear weapons for the country’s defense, even if the result would be America’s destruction.

This policy is reckless and foolish.

Indeed, Washington finds itself in an increasingly hot proxy war with nuclear-armed Russia, with U.S. officials attempting to discern Moscow’s potential red lines. At what point might ill-disguised American involvement in the conflict, combined with Russian conventional weakness, push the Putin government to use tactical nuclear weapons to retrieve its battlefield position? Could Washington be pulled into a cycle of mutual escalation?

In Ukraine’s Defense: Time for Nuclear Weapons?

The Ukraine conflict might have been entirely avoided had the U.S. not pressured Kyiv to yield the nuclear weapons left in its possession when the Soviet Union collapsed. When 1992 dawned, Ukraine was theoretically the world’s third-largest nuclear power with some 1,900 strategic and 3,000 tactical nuclear warheads, as well as 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles and 44 strategic bombers. However, in December 1994 Kyiv agreed to yield its nuclear weapons in a pact known as the Budapest Memorandum. Alas, the agreement offered Ukraine no security guarantees—adherents to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum merely promised to take any attack on Ukraine to the United Nations Security Council, on which the most likely aggressor, Russia, possessed a veto.

Nevertheless, at the time abandoning its nukes seemed like the right decision for Kyiv. Ukraine was unstable politically and bereft economically. It depended on the largesse of the West and the goodwill of Moscow, both of which would have been at risk had Kyiv not agreed to go nuclear-free. Aggression by Russia seemed unlikely. Moreover, Ukraine lacked the weapons’ operational codes, though the nuclear material could have been reused. Reconstituting and maintaining a nuclear force would have been a major burden.

And yet, imagine if Kyiv had possessed even a small nuclear deterrent on February 24, 2022. It is unlikely that Russia would have attacked. The risk of retaliatory destruction would have been too great. A similar fear, instilled by America’s nuclear arsenal, helped ensure that the Red Army never tested Western Europe’s ability to withstand an attempted Soviet Blitzkrieg.

Now the issue recurs. The Zelensky government wants security guarantees, preferably NATO membership, as part of any agreement to end the conflict. That won’t come easy. Although in 2008 at Washington’s insistence the allies committed to incorporating Ukraine (and Georgia), they spent the following 14 years running from their promise since no one wanted to risk war with Russia. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin continued to offer what amounted to polite falsehoods when visiting Kyiv just a couple of months before Russia’s invasion. And even with Ukraine under attack, the allies refused to enter the war directly.

So how will Ukraine be defended, assuming the war ends without a Russian collapse, which doesn’t look likely?

Taiwan Poses a Parallel Conundrum

A similar issue is bedeviling U.S. policy toward Taiwan. The main island is barely 100 miles off China’s coast and thus vulnerable to attack. Although the Carter Administration abrogated America’s mutual defense treaty with the longstanding Republic of China when recognizing the People’s Republic of China, Washington continued to maintain an ambiguous defense commitment to Taipei. Doing so seemed easy during the early years since the PRC lacked the military means to threaten Taiwan seriously.

Even when China brandished missiles in advance of the reelection of ROC President Lee Teng-hui during the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis, the threat was modest. The Clinton administration responded by sending two aircraft carriers and accompanying ships to the region as a show of force, against which Beijing had no recourse. The result was humiliating impotence for Beijing, creating a powerful incentive for the PRC’s ensuing military buildup.

Today the Chinese military is much more capable. The consensus in Washington is that the U.S. should still defend Taiwan, but how remains unclear, given the latter’s distance and lack of certain allied support. Some policymakers imagine verbal threats deterring PRC intervention, which vastly underestimates the intensity of China’s commitment to reunification. The main debate in Washington appears to be over whether the U.S. should move from “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity,” making America’s commitment explicit.

Yet the U.S. could lose such a conflict. Its forces would lack air superiority over the island, be dependent on access to allied bases, and face enormous losses if operating near the coast of China. In wargames, China has most often triumphed. The less frequent U.S. victories have been dearly bought. The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently completed a series of tests, reporting success in saving Taiwan but warning that “this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service members. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years.”

Particularly fearsome is the prospect of escalation. Taiwan is an existential issue for Beijing, which the former cannot afford to lose. The PRC would rely on mainland bases, ensuring American attacks on such facilities, which in turn would trigger retaliation against U.S. territory. If neither Beijing nor Washington was prepared to yield, escalation would be difficult to halt, short of the use of nuclear weapons. The prospect of moving down this path would force any president to hesitate, and perhaps pull back and decide not to get involved, despite Washington’s long, ambiguous commitment to do so.

So how should Taiwan be defended, whether or not the U.S. is prepared to act?

Korea Has its Adversary

That’s not all. The Republic of Korea is another long-time security dependent, despite possessing some 50 times the economic strength and twice the population of the North. Once reliant on American defense welfare, always reliant on American defense welfare, it seems. At least, similar to the case of Taiwan, American “extended deterrence” was relatively costless when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea only had conventional arms, meaning a capable army. Any U.S. casualties would be limited to the Korean peninsula and Washington could use its entire arsenal in response to a North Korean attack. This situation is no longer the case, however.

The DPRK has been rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal and missile inventory, with Kim calling for an “exponential” increase in nuclear weapons. The Rand Corporation and Asan Institute warned: “by 2027, North Korea could have 200 nuclear weapons and several dozen intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hundreds of theater missiles for delivering the nuclear weapons. The ROK and the United States are not prepared, and do not plan to be prepared, to deal with the coercive and warfighting leverage that these weapons would give North Korea.”

Facing such a force, which could target American cities, would an American president be willing to defend South Korea? By all evidence, Pyongyang is a rational actor and wouldn’t launch a suicidal first strike on America. However, even what begins as a conventional conflict could go nuclear, since the North might respond to the possibility of regime change by the U.S. with a threat to attack America’s homeland. Imagine an allied defeat of North Korean conventional forces and an allied plan to march north, ala late 1950, followed by a demand from the DPRK that American and South Korean forces desist or face nuclear annihilation. Imagine such an ultimatum backed by a demonstration nuclear explosion on the outskirts of Seoul.

Nuclear Weapons and Keeping the Peace

In all these cases possession of nuclear weapons would benefit America’s clients, giving them control over their own security. Only then would they enjoy some certainty. For instance, Ukraine might have to wait a long time, and perhaps forever, for either the U.S. or Europe to offer to fight on Kyiv’s behalf. An ambiguous American commitment to defend Taiwan might be better than nothing for Taipei. Still, there is no certainty that a future U.S. president would risk America’s survival on Taiwan’s behalf.

In contrast, South Korea enjoys a treaty commitment. However, paper guarantees look increasingly fraught as the DPRK continues to expand the size and accuracy of its nuclear and missile arsenals. Moreover, though war over Taiwan would not directly threaten the survival of the Chinese regime; a conflict on the Korean peninsula would put Pyongyang’s existence in doubt. Would future U.S. administrations forever risk everything for the ROK?

Ukraine has no easy path back to nuclear status, but Taiwan once had a nuclear program and could resume its effort, as some analysts suggest. Even more so in Seoul, as ROK actively sought nuclear weapons a half-century or so ago. And there is substantial public support for the acquisition of nuclear weapons today, with President Yoon Suk-yeol recently mooting the possibility.

The consequences of even friendly proliferation would be serious, of course, but U.S. security should come first. Risking the American homeland on behalf of anything short of an existential threat—an attack on the U.S. itself—is not just foolish, but also a betrayal of Washington’s responsibility to its own people. Moreover, the promise to risk destruction on behalf of other nations is becoming less believable.

Noted Foreign Policy’s Stephen Walt: “convincing people you might use nuclear weapons to defend an ally isn’t easy.” With the potential of American involvement in hot conflicts involving Russia, China, and North Korea, possibly simultaneously, the U.S. should rethink its commitments, especially to fight nuclear wars for other nations.

There are obvious downsides to proliferation, but only the second-best security solutions are available today. Instead of arbitrarily ruling out what might be the most realistic option, the relative costs and benefits of friendly proliferation and extended deterrence should be compared and debated. And the interests of the American people should be emphasized. For they are who Washington’s foreign policy elites are supposed to serve.

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire.

19fortyfive.com · by Doug Bandow · February 8, 2023

14. Kim Jong Un puts daughter front and center at lavish military banquet

​How long will reporting on the daughter continue?

Kim Jong Un puts daughter front and center at lavish military banquet | CNN

CNN · by Yoonjung Seo,Brad Lendon · February 8, 2023

Seoul, South Korea CNN —

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un brought a child believed to be his daughter to a lavish banquet at a military barracks on Tuesday, the latest sign the girl is possibly being groomed as his eventual successor in an authoritarian family regime dating back decades.

The girl – believed to be Kim’s second child, Ju Ae, who is around 9 years old – and her father were joined by his wife, Ri Sol Ju, in the visit to the barracks and subsequent banquet to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army (KPA), state media reported Wednesday.

KIm Jong Un is pictured with a girl believed his daughter at a military banquet on Tuesday.

Rodong Sinmun

A Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) report described seeing Kim and “his respected” daughter as a dream come true for the military officials at the banquet.

Pictures published by the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper showed the girl walking next to Kim and her mother as they entered the venue for the banquet while military officers applauded.

At the banquet, the girl was seated in the center of the lead table between Kim and her mother.

In a country where the Kim family and the military are all powerful, the presence of the girl at such an important event sends clear signals, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

“By ostentatiously including his wife and daughter, Kim wants observers at home and abroad to see his family dynasty and the North Korean military as irrevocably linked,” he said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited military barracks with his daughter and wife to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army (KPA), state media reported.

Rodong Sinmun

Other observers said it’s clear Kim has made a choice of his successor, confirming speculation that began with the girl’s appearance at the November test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with her father.

South Korean lawmaker and secretary of the National Intelligence Service Yoo Sang-bum said after that launch that the girl was thought to be Ju Ae.

Images showed the two walking hand in hand while inspecting the massive missile, while state media called her Kim’s “beloved” daughter.

North Korean state media published a story later that month with pictures of Kim and his daughter, describing her as his “most beloved” child, said Cheong Seong-chang,​ a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea.

Military officers applaud North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his wife and daughter during their visit to a military barracks on Tuesday in a photo released by state-run media.

Rodong Sinmun

“Considering these, there is no longer any doubt that Kim Ju Ae has been appointed as the successor to Kim Jong Un, and it is necessary to pay attention to how this will affect North Korea’s domestic and foreign policies in the mid- to long-term, and how North Koreans will accept the succession of the fourth generation,” Cheong said.

The Kim family’s rule in North Korea stretches back to 1948, when Kim Il Sung came to power in the aftermath of World War II.

When he died in 1994, his son Kim Jong Il took control of the country. Kim Jong Un came to power in December 2011 after the death of Kim Jong Il, his father.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, along with his daughter, inspects an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in this undated photo released on November 19, 2022 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. SOUTH KOREA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SOUTH KOREA. REUTERS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THIS IMAGE.

KCNA/Reuters

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Kim Jong Un's daughter seen in first public appearance

There’s no indication Kim Jong Un would pass on the leadership anytime soon.

While the Kim regime has held previous such banquets for the military, pictures from Tuesday’s event depicted a more splashy setting than has been seen before.

“Kim’s lavish banquet commemorating the armed forces is meant to show that officers are highly respected in society and soldiers are well supported by the state,” Easley said.

KCNA reported that Kim Jong Un had made a speech at the banquet in which the North Korean leader praised and encouraged the military without making remarks about the United States or South Korea.

Tuesday’s banquet came a day before what many experts expect to be North Korea’s biggest military parade ever.

Pyongyang is coming off a record year of missile testing, and analysts are expecting to see examples of those missiles and more during an event expected to begin late Wednesday night.

CNN · by Yoonjung Seo,Brad Lendon · February 8, 2023

​15. North Korean leader Kim brings daughter to visit troops

North Korean leader Kim brings daughter to visit troops

AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · February 8, 2023

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un brought his daughter to visit troops to mark the 75th founding anniversary of the country’s army as he lauded the “irresistible might” of his nuclear-armed military, state media said Wednesday.

The visit came amid indications North Korea is preparing to stage a massive military parade in the capital, Pyongyang, where it could showcase the latest hardware of a growing nuclear weapons program that stokes the concern of its neighbors and the United States.

In her fourth known public appearance, Kim’s daughter Kim Ju Ae, believed to be 9 or 10 years old, stood closely with her father as he shook the hands of senior officials and sat next to him at a table. Analysts say Kim’s decision to bring his daughter to public events tied to his military is to remind the world he has no intentions to voluntarily surrender his nuclear weapons, which he apparently sees as the strongest guarantee of his survival and the extension of his family’s dynastic rule.

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State media’s lofty description of Kim Ju Ae, who has been called “respected” and “beloved,” has also inspired debate on whether she’s being primed as her father’s successor. She attended a flight test of an intercontinental ballistic missile in November and has accompanied her father to a meeting with military scientists and an inspection of ballistic missiles.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said Wednesday that Kim visited the lodging quarters of the Korean People’s Army’s general officers with his daughter. He later gave an encouraging speech to troops at a banquet, praising them for maintaining the “strongest army in the world” despite external difficulties.

The visit came a day after Kim presided over a meeting with his top military brass and called for an expansion of combat exercises aimed at sharpening war readiness, as he looks to escalate an already provocative run in weapons demonstrations in the face of deepening tensions with his neighbors and Washington.

State media photos showed military officials applauding at the banquet, which appeared to be held at Pyongyang’s Yanggakdo Hotel. Kim and his daughter dressed alike in black suits and white dress shirts and held hands as they walked down a red carpet alongside Kim’s wife, Ri Sol Ju.

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Kim during his speech said it was his “greatest honor” and delight to be the supreme commander of an army that is “fulfilling (the) call of the times and history as the strongest army in the world.”

State media reports on Kim’s visit to troops didn’t mention any comments made toward Washington or Seoul. But Pyongyang’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in an editorial Wednesday that the North’s military is prepared to unleash a “super strong strike of unimaginable might to wipe out the origins of provocations without a trace” when facing enemy threats.

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The newspaper said North Korea’s ramped up weapons tests and combat exercises last year were successful demonstrations of “overwhelming military might” that supports the government’s escalatory nuclear doctrine and its principle of “power-to-power, all-out confrontation” against enemies.

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North Korea hasn’t confirmed plans for a military parade, which could possibly take place later Wednesday. Residents in Pyongyang marked the anniversary by visiting the city’s Mansu Hill to lay flowers and pay respect to the statues of their late leaders, Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, respectively the grandfather and father of their ruler, as soldiers lined up to salute.

Commercial satellite images have shown weeks of apparent preparations involving huge numbers of troops and civilians for an event typically intended to glorify Kim Jong Un’s rule and his relentless push to cement the North’s status as a nuclear power.

North Korea is also facing deepening economic isolation and food shortages, showing the costs of Kim’s nuclear ambitions are piling up.

North Korea is coming off a record-breaking year in weapons testing, and the dozens of missiles it fired in 2022 included potentially nuclear-capable systems designed to strike targets in South Korea and the U.S. mainland.

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The intensified testing activity was punctuated by fiery statements threatening preemptive nuclear attacks against its neighbors and the United States in a broad range of scenarios where it may perceive its leadership as under threat.

Animosity could rise in coming months with Kim doubling down on his nuclear push entering 2023.

During a major political conference in December, Kim called for an “exponential increase” of the country’s nuclear warheads, mass production of battlefield tactical nukes targeting “enemy” South Korea and the development of more powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the continental United States.

Aside of developmental tests, North Korea could also dial up its military demonstrations in response the United States’ expanding combined militarily exercises with South Korea, which the allies say are aimed at countering the North’s evolving threat.

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North Korea’s Foreign Ministry last week warned that the country is prepared to counter U.S. military moves with the “most overwhelming nuclear force” as it condemned U.S. plans to expand its joint exercise with South Korea and deploy more advanced military assets like bombers and aircraft carriers to the region.

AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · February 8, 2023

​

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com