07/30/2021 The Wheat Quality Tour three-day yield fell to a record (1993) low 29.1 bushels per acre, down from the five-year average of 43.6. They passed many fields already hayed that will not be harvested. We won’t know the scope of abandoned acres until USDA’s Small Grains Summary report September 30, to be included in the October WASDE report. That abandonment could be quite high. Below are interesting histograms that show how quickly marketing opportunities come and go. Thursday’s cash price on Spring Wheat at the close was $8.48 (2% of days in the past ten years) and new crop corn closed at $5.36 (also less than 2% of days in the past ten years).

Thunderstorms that are moving east across South Dakota are rapidly losing their strength as they move toward Iowa and southern Minnesota. Forecast models expect them to rebuild this afternoon, but the recent trend has been for storms to under verify. These storms are expected to track southeast across the southwestern half of Iowa, northern Missouri, into southern Illinois over the next 24 hours. That's currently the Midwest's best opportunity for rain over the next 10 days. However, that doesn't matter to the market unless it results in lower crop ratings from USDA on Monday afternoons, and in lower private production estimates in August from the various crop tours and surveys. The trade needs to see data to justify a move outside this summer's trading range. The flow of data should increase in August, making it an interesting month for the markets.

China’s zero-tolerance policy toward Covid is falling. Covid-19 numbers aren’t as high as in the United States or in other parts of the world, but China’s ability to keep it contained is failing, with its numbers rising across much of the country. Those numbers are still low, but policymakers are struggling to contain the Delta variant that has fewer symptoms in many cases. That allows it to spread before it can be detected. The question then is, how will China respond. Will it shut down more of the country, or will it evolve into a new policy that adjusts to Covid as part of life in today’s world? Although China has a lot on the books for next year, they have been absent from the market since their last purchases in May.

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