SHARE:  
Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see" 
- Henry David Thoreau

"I wish to preach, not the doctrine of ignoble ease, but the doctrine of the strenuous life, the life of toil and effort, of labor and strife; to preach that highest form of success which comes, not to the man who desires mere easy peace, but to the man who does not shrink from danger, from hardship, or from bitter toil, and who out of these wins the splendid ultimate triumph." 
- Theodore Roosevelt

"Without courage, you cannot practice any of the other virtues." 
- Maya Angelou

1. Koreas reopen severed cross-border hotlines
2.  N.K. leader makes no mention of nuclear deterrence at national conference of war veterans
3. U.S. welcomes reopening of inter-Korean communication lines as 'positive step'
4. U.S. approach toward N. Korea leaves doors open to dialogue: Austin
5. Taiwanese netizens thank Korea for using 'Taiwan,' not 'Chinese Taipei'
6. North Korean Soldiers Steal from Civilians to Celebrate End of Korean War
7. Hungry North Korean soldiers ‘terrorize civilians’
8. EXCLUSIVE North, South Korea in talks over summit, reopening liaison office
9. Two Koreas Agree to Rebuild Ties in Possible Opening for Biden
10. What we know about inter-Korean hotlines, unique symbol for testy ties
11. Even in absence, North Korea's presence felt at Tokyo Games
12.  Korea Sent More COVID Aid to China Than to Poor Countries
13. Seoul refocuses on roads, railway projects with Pyongyang
14. Still no signs that North Korea is distributing food to ordinary people
15. Restored hotlines may indicate North's willingness for dialogue with U.S.
16. Many North Korean farms still need to be properly weeded





1. Koreas reopen severed cross-border hotlines

Severed hotlines? I think the north has chosen not to simply answer the phone for the past 13 months or so. Here is my assessment: Bottom line is we need to prepare for (and inoculate the Korean and US populations against) a possible north Korea provocation next month.

Here are my consolidated comments that I made in various messages since his new "breakthrough." (The breakthrough being north Korea simply answered the phone!)

Here are my thoughts on the communication between north and South.
 
Potentially a very significant development. A possible positive step forward for north-South engagement. But it is still too soon to tell. This was only a phone call at Panmunjom from one side to another. We have conducted phone checks every day for years and we continued to do so for the last 13 months. It is just that the north Korean side did not answer and respond until today. I would be more interested in knowing what kind of letter exchange has allegedly been taking place between Moon and Kim.
 
O the other hand is the regime toying with the South?
 
I think there is a need for some patience. We must test KJU's intent. We must not overreact. overreact. And we must beware the regime's political warfare strategy.
 
We must continually ask and assess these two questions and keep the answers in mind as we execute our superior form of political warfare.
 
1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
 
2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
 
We need to be ready to move forward with talks if the north is willing to come to the table. But we also need to be ready for a north Korean provocation. This action may be to build up euphoria surrounding possible engagement and raise expectations in Seoul and DC. But if the exercises take place as scheduled, we could possibly see a provocation with the intention of blaming the US for conducting the combined ROK/US exercises. All those who advocated cancelling the exercise will argue that since we did not cancel them Kim conducted the provocation, and the exercises are responsible not only for the provocation but also for another possible halt in north-South engagement. A provocation will be designed to drive a wedge further into the ROK/US alliance.  The Korean people and the American people cannot be duped, and the political leaders of both countries need to prepare their people for north Kore's continued malign behavior,
 
And let's also think about this statement from KCNA: "The whole Korean nation."
 
From KCNA: "Now, the whole Korean nation desires to see the North-South relations recovered from setback and stagnation as early as possible," the official Korean Central News Agency said, confirming that all inter-Korean communication liaison lines were restored as of 10 a.m.
 
The north is obviously referring to a unified Korea. Remember that its Constitution says it must complete the revolution to unify the peninsula and drive out foreign forces. Its concept of unification is rule by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. We are seeing the Kim family regime execute its political warfare strategy here.
 
So while this could be a positive development and I hope it is, we need to be wary. The ROK and US are providing the opportunity for Kim Jong-un to act as a responsible member of the international community. If he conducts a provocation in the coming weeks and months he will be showing to the world he has no intention of acting in a responsible way.



(4th LD) Koreas reopen severed cross-border hotlines | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · July 27, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with more details and background; REPLACES photo)
SEOUL, July 27 (Yonhap) -- The two Koreas on Tuesday reopened direct cross-border communication lines that Pyongyang severed last year in protest of propaganda leaflets coming in from the South, the government said, a positive sign for an improvement in the inter-Korean relationship.
Park Soo-hyun, senior Cheong Wa Dae secretary for public communication, announced that the Koreas decided to restore their hotlines starting at 10 a.m. under a surprise agreement between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Moon and Kim have exchanged personal letters on multiple occasions since April for the resumption and shared views on issues of advancing inter-Korean reconciliation, Park said.
"The two leaders of the South and the North also shared an understanding to recover mutual trust and again push the countries' relationship forward," he added without disclosing details of the letters.
Later on Tuesday, the presidential office said the South's unification ministry and military made contact with their North Korean counterparts through the restored hotlines but one between the two leaders has yet to be reopened.

The move came 13 months after North Korea cut off all communication lines with South Korea in June of last year in protest over Seoul's supposed failure to stop activists from sending anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets into the communist nation. A few days later, Pyongyang blew up an inter-Korean liaison office in its border town of Kaesong in protest, elevating tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang to new heights in recent years.
The probable root cause of the recent fallout in relations between the two Koreas, however, is largely perceived as having begun in February 2019, when Kim's summit with former U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi ended without a deal. Seoul then worked hard to broker a peace agreement between Pyongyang and Washington but ultimately failed to do so.
The two Koreas expect the reopening of communications to potentially lead to a breakthrough in the current stalemate between them.
"We anticipate that the restoration of communications between the South and the North will positively affect the advancement and development of inter-Korean relations," Park said.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency confirmed the restoration, saying that the two sides agreed to reopen all direct communication lines at 10 a.m. as part of efforts to improve inter-Korean relations. The restoration "will have positive effects on the improvement and development" of relations, it said.

The surprise restoration of cross-border communications is also expected to provide an impetus to kick-start the Moon administration's currently stalled Korean peace process. Seoul has been engaging in active diplomacy aimed at reaching out to the North and arranging dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington, especially following the inauguration of the new U.S. administration under President Joe Biden.
In a bilateral summit in May in Washington, Moon and Biden agreed to uphold past agreements reached between the two Koreas and between the United States and the North in a sign of commitment to dialogue with Pyongyang.
A senior Cheong Wa Dae official later told reporters that the two Koreas did not discuss holding a summit either in-person or via video link.
The officials said Moon and Kim recognized in their exchanges the problems of the deterioration of inter-Korean ties and shared the need to rebuild the relationship and trust in order to move forward the Korean peace process.
The two leaders, according to the official, also shared words of encouragement and regards toward the people of both South and North Korea, wishing for a quick recovery from the pandemic.

(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · July 27, 2021


2. N.K. leader makes no mention of nuclear deterrence at national conference of war veterans

Again, we should not overreact or read too much into this. Just because the nuclear deterrent is not mentioned does not mean there is any reduction in its importance. And as part of the regime's political warfare strategy it may be intended to cause a positive reaction in the ROK and the US and create the fantasy perception that the regime is somehow now willing to negotiate denuclearization of the north. I sense a possible "Lucy and the football" situation. Our hopes and expectations will be raised and then dashed with the next provocation.

N.K. leader makes no mention of nuclear deterrence at national conference of war veterans | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 28, 2021
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, July 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the country's armed forces are fully ready to deal with any outside threats as he addressed a conference of war veterans but unlike last year, made no mention of "nuclear deterrence," according to state media Wednesday.
The annual conference, held Tuesday to mark the anniversary of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War, coincided with the surprise announcement that the North restored cross-border hotlines with South Korea that it had cut off more than a year ago.
During the address, Kim said the North is facing challenges from the prolonged coronavirus lockdown but did not talk about strengthening the country's nuclear arsenal or relations with South Korea and the United States.
In last year's speech, Kim said the country has "reliable and effective self-defence nuclear deterrence."
"We are faced with difficulties and hardship caused by the unprecedented global health crisis and prolonged lockdown no less challenging than how it was during the war," Kim said during this year's speech, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
Kim said it was the "honorable mission for descendants of the generation who won the victory in the war to further consolidate and bring to prosperity forever the country."
Top officials attending the conference included Choe Ryong-hae, president of the presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, and Jo Yong-won, secretary for Organizational Affairs of the party's Central Committee.
This marked the second time since 2015 that Kim delivered a speech at the conference of war veterans.
The North held the first conference of war veterans in 1993, when it marked the 40th anniversary of the end of the war. It also has taken place in 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018 and 2020 since leader Kim Jong-un took office in late 2011.
The Korean War ended in an armistice signed on July 27, 1953, which leaves South and North Korea technically in a state of war. The North called the war the Fatherland Liberation War and designated the armistice signing date as Victory Day.

(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 28, 2021


3. U.S. welcomes reopening of inter-Korean communication lines as 'positive step'

As we should. I would add though that every time the regime does something that is perceived positively we should add we welcome KIm Jong-un's decision to become a responsible member of the international community. Of course we would like him to do that but by emphasizing this, when he does conduct a provocation and continues his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy we will be able to remind our publics, the press, the pundits, and our political leaders that Kim is not a responsible member of the international community and we should never allow ourselves to be duped by his long con.


(LEAD) U.S. welcomes reopening of inter-Korean communication lines as 'positive step' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 28, 2021
(ATTN: RECASTS headline; UPDATES with remarks from State Department deputy spokesperson Porter, additional information from 4th para; ADDS photo)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, July 27 (Yonhap) -- The United States welcomes the reopening of direct communication lines between the two Koreas, a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday, calling it a "positive step."
The remarks come after North Korea reopened its communication channels, including a military hotline, with South Korea on Tuesday (Seoul time).
"The United States supports inter-Korean dialogue and engagement and welcomes today's announcement on the restoration of inter-Korean communications lines," the department spokesperson said in an email to Yonhap News Agency, asking not to be identified. "This is a positive step."

Jalina Porter, principal deputy spokesperson for the State Department, later echoed the sentiment, also highlighting the importance of dialogue in dealing with the reclusive North.
"I will also say that diplomacy and dialogue are essential to achieving complete denuclearization and establishing permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula," she said in a telephonic press briefing.
North Korea had unilaterally severed all its cross-border communication channels with the South in June 2020 to protest anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets sent by activist groups in South Korea.
Seoul has since revised its law on inter-Korean relations to prohibit sending of propaganda leaflets into the North, citing dangers posed to those who live close to the inter-Korean border due to often hostile reactions from the North.
The restoration of the communication channels came after South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchanged "several personal letters," agreeing to improve their countries' ties, according to Seoul officials.
North Korea has ignored U.S. overtures for engagement despite the new Joe Biden administration repeatedly reaching out since coming into office in January.
Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman renewed the U.S. outreach last week, saying her country is looking forward to a "reliable, predictable, constructive way forward" with the North.
"We have offered to sit in dialogue with the North Koreans, and we are waiting to hear from them," she said on Friday after meeting with her South Korean counterpart, Choi Jong-kun, in Seoul.
Pyongyang has stayed away from denuclearization talks with Washington since early 2019.
The department spokesperson, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not offer an answer when asked if the reopening of the communication channels between the two Koreas may indicate the North's possible return to the dialogue table with the U.S.
North Korea also frequently denounces joint military exercises of South Korea and the United States as a "hurdle" to dialogue.
A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Defense refused to comment on future exercise plans, citing a policy of the U.S.-South Korea Combined Forces Command (CFC), but insisted the allied forces continue to maintain a "robust combined defense posture to protect the Republic of Korea against any threat or adversary."
Still, the spokesman noted future joint military exercises may be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Protection of the force is CFC's No. 1 priority, and all ROK-U.S. training will respect ROK government and Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency COVID-19 guidelines," he told Yonhap News Agency in an email.
ROK stands for the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 28, 2021


4. U.S. approach toward N. Korea leaves doors open to dialogue: Austin
Good to see the SECDEF re-emphasize this. It is a key part of the Biden policy but we are not consistently stressing it in our narratives. We must enforce the full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions and north Korea must live up to them and comply.

"And we're taking a calibrated, practical approach that leaves the door open to diplomacy with North Korea ... even while we maintain our readiness to deter aggression and to uphold our treaty commitments and the will of the Security Council," Austin said at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Fullerton Lecture in Singapore, according to a transcript of his speech released by the Pentagon.
...
"We're also taking a leading role again at the U.N. Security Council. That includes enforcing its critical resolutions about nuclear dangers on the Korean Peninsula," he said.

U.S. approach toward N. Korea leaves doors open to dialogue: Austin | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 28, 2021
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, July 27 (Yonhap) -- The United States continues to take a practical approach toward North Korea that leaves open the door for dialogue, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday.
The U.S. defense chief made the remark as North Korea reopened its direct communication lines with South Korea in an apparent move to improve its relations with Seoul that many believe may also lead to a resumption of dialogue with the United States.
"And we're taking a calibrated, practical approach that leaves the door open to diplomacy with North Korea ... even while we maintain our readiness to deter aggression and to uphold our treaty commitments and the will of the Security Council," Austin said at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Fullerton Lecture in Singapore, according to a transcript of his speech released by the Pentagon.

The defense secretary is on a three-nation Asia trip that will later take him to Vietnam and the Philippines.
North Korea reactivated its communication lines with South Korea on Tuesday (Seoul time), including a military hotline, which it unilaterally severed in June 2020 to protest anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets from South Korea.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the reopening of the communication lines will have "positive effects" on the improvement of inter-Korean relations, also noting the leaders of the divided Koreas have exchanged several personal letters in recent days.
Austin underscored the need to maintain pressure on North Korea.
"We're also taking a leading role again at the U.N. Security Council. That includes enforcing its critical resolutions about nuclear dangers on the Korean Peninsula," he said.
North Korea has stayed away from denuclearization talks with the United States since early 2019. It has also remained unresponsive to U.S. outreaches made since President Joe Biden took office in January.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 28, 2021


5. Taiwanese netizens thank Korea for using 'Taiwan,' not 'Chinese Taipei'

After all the mistakes of the opening day made by MBC and the derogatory descriptions of some countries, this "mistake" is. apoistive (except for the possible blowback from the PRC).

Excerpts:
After Korea beat Taiwan 6-0, Monday, Korean netizens congratulated the self-governing island for winning the silver medal. Korea's broadcasters also introduced the opposing team as being from "Taiwan" instead of "Chinese Taipei."
The term, "Taiwanese players," trended on Twitter, with many people raising questions about why Taiwan's official flag was not displayed, nor its anthem played during the medal ceremony.

One individual tweeted, "It's really sad that Taiwanese athletes cannot use their national flag during the Olympics," while another commented, "They remind me of Sohn Kee-chung, Korea's gold medalist in the marathon during the 1936 Berlin Olympics."



Taiwanese netizens thank Korea for using 'Taiwan,' not 'Chinese Taipei'
The Korea Times · by 2021-07-27 14:21 | Tokyo Olympics · July 27, 2021
The flag of 'Chinese Taipei' (Taiwan), left, is seen during the medal ceremony for the men's archery event at the Yumenoshima Park Archery Field in Tokyo, Monday. The flag features a small white sun superimposed on a blue circle ― a symbol pulled from Taiwan's national flag ― and the five Olympic rings, encircled by a blue Asian plum blossom, on a white background. Yonhap

By Kwak Yeon-soo

Taiwan's official name at the Olympics has sparked heated discussions online after Koreans referred to the self-ruled island as "Taiwan," not "Chinese Taipei," when talking about the final of the men's archery event.

After Korea beat Taiwan 6-0, Monday, Korean netizens congratulated the self-governing island for winning the silver medal. Korea's broadcasters also introduced the opposing team as being from "Taiwan" instead of "Chinese Taipei."
The term, "Taiwanese players," trended on Twitter, with many people raising questions about why Taiwan's official flag was not displayed, nor its anthem played during the medal ceremony.

One individual tweeted, "It's really sad that Taiwanese athletes cannot use their national flag during the Olympics," while another commented, "They remind me of Sohn Kee-chung, Korea's gold medalist in the marathon during the 1936 Berlin Olympics."

Because Korea was under the colonial rule of the Japanese Empire, Sohn had participated as a member of the Japanese team under the Japanese name, Kitei Son.
A Taiwanese netizen's tweet that reads, "Everyone calls us Taiwan. When can we call ourselves Taiwan?" Screenshot from TwitterTaiwanese netizens thanked Korea for being a "good neighbor," underlining the warm ties between the two.

"Everyone calls us Taiwan. When can we call ourselves Taiwan?" a Taiwanese netizen tweeted. At the time of this writing, that post had been shared around 7,400 times and garnered more than 6,900 likes. Another person tweeted, "South Korea is really enthusiastic, and we are so touched. Go Taiwan!"

China doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country. Following a long political battle between the two counterparts over naming conventions, the self-governed island reluctantly agreed to participate in international events under the official name of "Chinese Taipei."

Since 1981, Taiwan has been representing itself as "Chinese Taipei" at international events and organizations, using a new emblem and flag in accordance with the Nagoya Resolution.

In 2018, Taiwan voted on a referendum to compete under "Taiwan" instead of "Chinese Taipei" in the Tokyo Olympics, but failed to meet the conditions for winning approval from more than 25 percent of all voters. Those who objected to the initiative, including the head of Taiwan's Olympic Committee, feared that changing the name officially to "Taiwan" could jeopardize its chances of competing in the games.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) also warned that Taiwan could be expelled from the IOC and banned from the games if it continues to push for changing its official name to "Taiwan."


The Korea Times · by 2021-07-27 14:21 | Tokyo Olympics · July 27, 2021

6. North Korean Soldiers Steal from Civilians to Celebrate End of Korean War
I recall one young woman who was an escapee who feared running into a US soldier in South Korea because she had been taught that US soldiers will assault women as they please. I suppose the north Korean People's Army is no longer the "people's army."
Over the past few years, incidents of the military “commandeering” supplies from civilians or forcing them to “donate” them have been common. But as economic conditions worsen under international nuclear sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, soldiers are now increasingly shaking down people who dare to walk the streets alone.
The terrified citizens are now referring to the roving bands of soldiers looking to take their belongings as “bandits.”
“Robbery and assault ahead of the 7.27 Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War by soldiers here in Pyongsan county just crosses the line,” a resident of North Hwanghae province, south of the capital Pyongyang, told RFA’s Korean Service July 21.
“When residents see soldiers even from a distance on the street, they feel afraid and go out of their way to avoid them,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.


North Korean Soldiers Steal from Civilians to Celebrate End of Korean War
Citizens go out of their way to avoid military ‘bandits.’
Members of North Korea’s military are robbing citizens on the streets to secure materials needed to celebrate the signing of the July 27, 1953 armistice agreement that ended Korean War hostilities, sources in the country told RFA.
North Korea has designated the anniversary of the agreement as a national holiday called the “Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War,” even though the war ended in what is widely considered to be a stalemate.
The country’s cash-strapped government has in recent years struggled to adequately supply the military with even food and basic necessities, often leaving individual units to fend for themselves.
Over the past few years, incidents of the military “commandeering” supplies from civilians or forcing them to “donate” them have been common. But as economic conditions worsen under international nuclear sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, soldiers are now increasingly shaking down people who dare to walk the streets alone.
The terrified citizens are now referring to the roving bands of soldiers looking to take their belongings as “bandits.”
“Robbery and assault ahead of the 7.27 Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War by soldiers here in Pyongsan county just crosses the line,” a resident of North Hwanghae province, south of the capital Pyongyang, told RFA’s Korean Service July 21.
“When residents see soldiers even from a distance on the street, they feel afraid and go out of their way to avoid them,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
Items frequently stolen from citizens include cigarettes, cash, food, and other things that the government would normally supply them, according to the source.
“Last week a resident of Pyongsan county was walking down a quiet road when three soldiers popped up and threatened him, demanding all his belongings,” the source said.
“One of the soldiers said, ‘The Day of Victory in the war is coming soon, so shouldn’t we have something for the holiday?’ and the other two soldiers forcibly took the resident’s backpack and ran away,” said the source.
“It’s not like this never happened before, but these days it occurs all too often… Residents criticize the government authorities, saying ‘If the state provided enough food for soldiers, they wouldn’t do this, but the state doesn’t support the military,’” the source said.
A military source in the northeastern city of Chongjin in North Hamgyong province confirmed to RFA the same day that soldiers there were also mugging citizens.
“There have been five robbery incidents this month alone by soldiers of a military unit in Panjuk-dong, so public opinion toward the soldiers has greatly worsened,” said the second source, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
“The soldiers go out in groups to residential areas to steal food and money for the upcoming 7.27 Victory Day,” said the second source.
The military source said the higher ranked corporals and sergeants sent privates to residential areas to loot in order to prepare for the holiday by procuring food, alcohol, cigarettes, and daily supplies by “any means possible.”
“The people are resentful over the muggings, saying, ‘Stealing from powerless citizens is absolutely not acceptable, no matter how hard it is for the soldiers to endure the supply shortage,’” the second source said.
“They are also resentful that the military has been reduced to bandits that rob the people instead of protecting the homeland and its citizens, all because the state gave up support for the military,” said the second source.
According to the second source, the military conducts education sessions for soldiers to prevent crimes from happening, but taking things from the people technically does not violate any rules.
“As long as it is not murder, it’s common for stealing from the residents to go on without investigation or punishment within the military justice system.”
Thefts by members of the military often occur whenever their units fail to meet their basic needs.
RFA reported in May that military personnel working on a large national construction project in the capital Pyongyang were so poorly fed that many of them had resorted to mugging people who live near the construction site in order to buy food.
In another RFA report published in 2019, soldiers in rural mountainous Kangwon province in the country’s east, bordering South Korea, were so undersupplied during winter training at the beginning of that year that they resorted to breaking into residents’ homes to loot the food and valuables within.
Reported by Jeong Yon Park for RFA’s Korean Service. Translated by Jinha Shin. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
7. Hungry North Korean soldiers ‘terrorize civilians’
Are nKPA units being de-prioritized in terms of logistical support? Which ones? This is one of the contributors to instability we postulated long ago. When the regime has to de-prioritize entire military units we could very well see a competition for resources with other units that are still being supported. Such "competition" could result in conflict. And once that begins it could be a very swift path to instability, and then...

I hope we are reviewing contingency plans.

Bradley Martin provides a roll-up of recent reporting from RFA, Daily NK, and AsiaPress/Rimjingang which I have previously forwarded separately.

Hungry North Korean soldiers ‘terrorize civilians’
asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · July 28, 2021
Kim Jong Un’s deemphasis of the military at a time of widespread food shortages has left many serving and recently discharged soldiers hungry enough to turn angry and violent, judging from recent reporting by news organizations that have sources inside North Korea.
Members of North Korea’s military have been “robbing citizens on the streets to secure materials needed to celebrate the signing of the July 27, 1953, armistice agreement that ended Korean War hostilities,” Radio Free Asia quotes its sources in the country as saying.
North Korea designates the anniversary of the agreement as a national holiday called the “Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War,” the US government-funded news agency notes – “even though the war ended in what is widely considered to be a stalemate.”
A group of North Korean soldiers on a freight train. Photo: AFP / Jian Luo / Hans Lucas
Its article continues:
The country’s cash-strapped government has in recent years struggled to adequately supply the military with even food and basic necessities, often leaving individual units to fend for themselves.

Over the past few years, incidents of the military “commandeering” supplies from civilians or forcing them to “donate” them have been common. But as economic conditions worsen under international nuclear sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, soldiers are now increasingly shaking down people who dare to walk the streets alone.
The terrified citizens are now referring to the roving bands of soldiers looking to take their belongings as “bandits.”
“Robbery and assault ahead of the 7.27 Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War by soldiers here in Pyongsan county just crosses the line,” a resident of North Hwanghae province, south of the capital Pyongyang, told RFA’s Korean Service July 21.
“When residents see soldiers even from a distance on the street, they feel afraid and go out of their way to avoid them,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
Items frequently stolen from citizens include cigarettes, cash, food, and other things that the government would normally supply them, according to the source.

“Last week a resident of Pyongsan county was walking down a quiet road when three soldiers popped up and threatened him, demanding all his belongings,” the source said.
“One of the soldiers said, ‘The Day of Victory in the war is coming soon, so shouldn’t we have something for the holiday?’ and the other two soldiers forcibly took the resident’s backpack and ran away,” said the source.
“It’s not like this never happened before, but these days it occurs all too often.… Residents criticize the government authorities, saying ‘If the state provided enough food for soldiers, they wouldn’t do this, but the state doesn’t support the military,’” the source said.
A military source in the northeastern city of Chongjin in North Hamgyong province confirmed to RFA the same day that soldiers there were also mugging citizens.
“There have been five robbery incidents this month alone by soldiers of a military unit in Panjuk-dong, so public opinion toward the soldiers has greatly worsened,” said the second source, who requested anonymity to speak freely….

According to the second source, the military conducts education sessions for soldiers to prevent crimes from happening, but taking things from the people technically does not violate any rules. “As long as it is not murder, it’s common for stealing from the residents to go on without investigation or punishment within the military justice system.”
Two North Korean soldiers wait to cross a junction. Photo: AFP / Jian Luo / Hans Lucas
Sometimes it is murder, as another news outlet, DailyNK, has reported:
Two soldiers with a military engineering unit in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province, have fled after murdering two locals last month, Daily NK has learned. Their unit has been tasked with constructing concrete walls and high voltage wires along the North Korea-China border.
A source in the province told Daily NK on Friday that North Korean authorities have put out wanted notices for the soldiers, who allegedly killed the two people when they were caught stealing food in a residential area.
According to the source, soldiers with the military engineering construction unit in Hoeryong are suffering from extreme hunger and frequently leave construction sites to steal food from residential areas.

In mid-June, the two soldiers in question raided a kindergarten in a residential area under the cover of darkness. While trying to steal food from its storage room and cafeteria, they were discovered by a kindergarten teacher standing guard and her mother. The mother was there to help her daughter, who had been tasked with guarding the facility alone. The soldiers proceeded to “mercilessly” stab the pair to death.
“After the two soldiers committed the murders, they cleaned out all the food and disappeared, and they haven’t been caught yet,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
North Korean propaganda poster depicting a miner, Pyongan Province, North Korea. Photo: AFP / Eric Lafforgue / Hans Lucas
Even more hopeless than the average serving soldier may be the legions of soldiers who have been mustered out recently and dispatched to take on for the rest of their working lives civilian jobs that are categorized among the most undesirable in the country: farmer, construction worker and miner. As a third news organization, AsiaPress/Rimjingang, reports:
This spring, soldiers who were discharged from the People’s Army and subsequently deployed to rural areas have been causing problems across the country. Discharged soldiers have been behind violence, theft, and other acts that have broken local order. Indeed, these incidents have become so frequent that the police cannot respond in any meaningful way. In mid-July, Mr Kim (pseudonym), a reporting partner living in North Hamkyung Province, investigated a cooperative farm to learn more.
When Mr Kim visited Cooperative Farm “A,” an old acquaintance of his told him the following: The main problem is the issue of women. Those who have been discharged from the military are in their mid-to-late twenties and have just finished eight years of military service. Therefore, they follow women around without coming to work, trying to find a marriage partner, and have constant disputes with the women’s families. The report continued:
“When they fight, they beat others until they bleed. Also, they swear at the women on the farm. At the beginning of July, one of them drank alcohol and beat up the group leader, and was questioned by the police. However, even the police were having trouble controlling them. A farmer lamented that it was as if a group of bandits had arrived.” …
After the Workers’ Party Congress held in January, the Kim Jong-un regime took the decision to drastically reduce the number of military personnel. The period of military service was shortened from 13 years to 8 years for men and from 8 years to 5 years for women, and soldiers who had reached maturity were to be discharged as of 2020.
The main purpose of this was to redirect the workforce to key industries that were severely understaffed. Discharged military personnel were mainly deployed in rural areas, mines, coal mines, and construction sites for national projects….
“There were complaints from those who were to be discharged from the military, saying, ‘You mean I have to spend the rest of my life with a stag beetle, a pickaxe, and a shovel?’” said another reporting partner.
In North Korean society, farmers are positioned at the lowest level. In addition to being poor, they have almost no chance of being allowed to move to cities or change jobs, even if they want to. Their children and grandchildren will have to work as farm laborers. It is the worst possible placement for a young person.
In North Korea, it has been said that. “If you join the military, your head will turn to stone in three years,” meaning that even if you are discharged and return to society, you will be useless. Nevertheless, most discharged soldiers live diligently for a year as candidate party members in order to be given preferential treatment upon joining the … party. However, at the Workers’ Party Congress held in January 2021, the rules were changed and the procedure for joining the party became stricter.
The AsiaPress article offers much detail. Read it in full here.
Bradley K. Martin is the author of Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty.
asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · July 28, 2021





8. EXCLUSIVE North, South Korea in talks over summit, reopening liaison office

I see on Twitter the Blue House is pushing back on reports of planning a summit between Moon and Kim.

And the buried lede: 10 letters between the NIS and Kim Yo-jong:
Moon had called for a revival of the hotlines and offered a video summit with Kim, but Pyongyang had previously responded publicly with scathing criticism, saying it had no intention of talking to Seoul.
The first source said Moon and Kim have exchanged "candid" letters on more than 10 occasions, which led to an opening of a communication channel between Seoul's intelligence authorities and Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong.

EXCLUSIVE North, South Korea in talks over summit, reopening liaison office
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin
SEOUL, July 28 (Reuters) - North and South Korea are in talks to reopen a joint liaison office that Pyongyang demolished last year and hold a summit as part of efforts to restore relations, three South Korean government sources with knowledge of the matter said.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have been exploring ways to improve strained ties by exchanging multiple letters since April, the sources said on condition of anonymity due to diplomatic sensitivity.
The discussions signal an improvement in ties that have deteriorated in the past year after three leaders' summits in 2018 promised peace and reconciliation.
Inter-Korean talks could also help restart stalled negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington aimed at dismantling the North's nuclear and missile programmes in return for sanctions relief.
The issue is key for Moon, who is facing declining support in his final year in office. Moon staked his legacy on improving relations with North Korea and helped set up historic meetings between Kim and then U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019.
The two Koreas, still technically at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a ceasefire, on Tuesday reconnected hotlines the North severed in June last year.
Both sides are discussing rebuilding their joint liaison office at the truce village of Panmunjom on the border, two sources said. Pyongyang spectacularly destroyed the previous office in its border town of Kaesong in 2020.
They are also seeking a summit between Moon and Kim, but no time frame or other details have been raised due to the coronavirus pandemic, the sources said.
North Korea has not confirmed any COVID-19 cases, but it shut borders and imposed strict prevention measures, seeing the pandemic as a matter of national survival.
"The talks are still ongoing, and COVID-19 should be the biggest factor," one source said. "A face-to-face meeting is the best, but hopefully the situation will get better."
Moon's office referred to a briefing on Tuesday by his press secretary, Park Soo-hyun, who said the issue of restoring the liaison office was to be discussed, and that the leaders have not floated plans for any summit so far.
A second source said a virtual summit could be an option depending on whether North Korea balks at a meeting in person because of COVID-19.
"If we can do that and the North has that capability, it would make a big difference, and open so many windows of opportunity, something to restart talks with the United States."
1/2
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shake hands at the truce village of Panmunjom inside the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, South Korea, April 27, 2018. Korea Summit Press Pool/Pool via Reuters
North Korea, which has not held any meetings with foreign nationals since the pandemic began, restricts outside media access, and its mission to the United Nations was not available for comment.
'CANDID' LETTERS
Moon had called for a revival of the hotlines and offered a video summit with Kim, but Pyongyang had previously responded publicly with scathing criticism, saying it had no intention of talking to Seoul.
The first source said Moon and Kim have exchanged "candid" letters on more than 10 occasions, which led to an opening of a communication channel between Seoul's intelligence authorities and Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong.
Despite "ups and downs" in the consultations, the two sides agreed over the weekend to reactivate hotlines as a first step.
Kim's move reflected a willingness to respond to U.S. overtures for talks, as the administration of President Joe Biden vowed a practical approach including not naming an envoy for North Korean human rights issues, the source said.
"There were some visible elements, including pursuing a phased, action-for-action approach, instead of a grand bargain, and appointing a nuclear negotiator, instead of a human rights envoy," the source said. "After all, Washington has unveiled its policy and the North can't just sit idle, so inter-Korean ties came up as a starting point."
The U.S. Embassy in Seoul declined comment, referring queries to the State Department, which did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in June the Biden administration was determined to appoint a North Korea human rights envoy but did not offer a timeline.
Washington supports inter-Korean engagement, and diplomacy is essential to achieving complete denuclearisation and lasting peace on the Korean peninsula, a spokesperson said on Tuesday in welcoming the opening of the hotlines.
A third source said the two Koreas only announced the hotline reopenings because little progress was made over other issues, including how the North would apologise for blowing up the liaison office.
Hit by the pandemic and last year's typhoons, North Korea faces the worst economic crisis since a famine in the 1990s that killed as many as 3 million.
However, few deaths have been reported from hunger, the first source said, helped by Chinese aid and the release of military and emergency reserves.
North Korea is expected to resume trade with China as early as August, involving cargo train services, after scrapping plans to do so in April due chiefly to concerns over more contagious COVID-19 variants, the source said.
Beijing's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and calls to the Chinese Embassy in Seoul were unanswered.
Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington and Tony Munroe in Beijing; Editing by Jack Kim and Lincoln Feast
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin

9. Two Koreas Agree to Rebuild Ties in Possible Opening for Biden

Again, let's not over react. Will this lead to denuclearization negotiations? I hope so but I am also not holding my breath. We must be cautious when it comes to Kim and his long con.

Two Koreas Agree to Rebuild Ties in Possible Opening for Biden - Caixin Global
Jul 28, 2021 07:59 AM


A man wearing a T-shirt with the words "Korea Army" looks across to the North Korean side of the border at the Imjingak pavilion near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Paju
(Bloomberg) — North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in agreed in letters to restore relations, improving the prospects for a breakthrough in an extended stalemate in nuclear talks.
The two countries released what appeared to be coordinated statements Tuesday calling for reconciliation on the peninsula, with North Korean state media in Pyongyang saying they agreed “to make a big stride in recovering the mutual trust.” Both sides reopened hotlines that had been silent since a flare-up a year ago when Kim’s regime symbolically blew up a liaison office funded by Moon’s government.
The effort to thaw relations came on the 68th anniversary of the armistice that halted fighting in the 1950–53 Korean War, a conflict that never formally ended. Last week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman reaffirmed President Joe Biden’s openness to talks during a visit to Seoul in which she met with South Korean officials including Moon.
“The fact that North Korea also officially acknowledged the restoration of the communications lines is positive, as is the language in the North Korean readout,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a nonresident fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center. “It appears that Pyongyang may be gearing up to resume some level of diplomacy with South Korea, but it’s premature to draw any conclusions about whether the restoration of the communications lines will lead to any tangible results.”
South Korea’s presidential office later said there was no discussion of a possible summit between Moon and Kim.
The White House and U.S. State Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment sent after normal business hours. Japan’s top government spokesman, Katsunobu Kato, told reporters Tokyo is watching the situation. China welcomed the news and said it supports dialogue between the two Koreas to improve relations, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a regular briefing in Beijing.
So-called peace stocks listed in Seoul that are expected to benefit from improved relations skyrocketed in Tuesday trading. Hyundai Elevator Co., the largest shareholder in Hyundai Asan, the company that operated jointly run and now mothballed projects in North Korea, jumped as much as 9% — the most in a year.
Moon, a long-time proponent of reconciliation, who helped broker Kim’s unprecedented summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump in June 2018. He has exchanged letters with Kim since April, his office said.
While Kim’s summits with Moon and Trump set milestones for a North Korean leader, they led to no tangible steps to wind down his nuclear arsenal. As the disarmament talks stalled, Kim added to his stockpile of fissile material and missiles that can deliver nuclear warheads to the U.S., increasing his leverage if negotiations resume.
While Kim has shown little interest in talks since his last meeting in June 2019 with Moon and Trump in the demilitarized zone dividing the peninsula, his diplomatic window may be closing. Moon leaves office in May, and opinion polls suggest voters are open to replacing him with a conservative leader who might take a more hawkish tone.
“Pyongyang definitely prefers someone who would prioritize the North Korea issue over others,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor in International Relations at King’s College London.
South Korea’s military also said it planned to restore regular communications with northern forces. They’ll exchange information twice a day, at 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., including details about illegal fishing in the Yellow Sea, the South Korean military said in a statement.
The hotlines that resumed operation Tuesday were established in 2018 after Kim and Moon held a series of summits. But North Korea last year accused South Korea of violating the agreement by allowing the launch of balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang messages as a justification for cutting off communication.
North Korea’s strict border closures amid the pandemic undermined an economy already battered by U.S.-led sanctions. North Korea’s economy will barely grow in 2021 after its worst contraction in decades as the country continues to struggle with the pandemic, international sanctions to punish it for its nuclear and missile testing, and a lack of trade with China, Fitch Solutions said in April.
At a ruling party meeting in June, Kim made a rare admission that the food situation was “growing tense” after typhoons wiped out crops last year. The comments underscored farm-sector shortfalls that have left 40% of the population undernourished, according to World Food Program estimates, and were made worse by his decision to close borders.
Any move toward reconciliation could face an immediate test next month, when U.S. and South Korean forces are slated to begin annual military exercises that Kim’s regime has denounced as preparations for war.
“Whether North Korea reports on this development domestically will give us a clearer idea of how committed the Pyongyang regime is to improving inter-Korean relations,” said Lee of the Stimson Center.
Contact editor Bob Simison (bobsimison@caixin.com)
Download our app to receive breaking news alerts and read the news on the go.
Follow the Chinese markets in real time with Caixin Global’s new stock database.

10. What we know about inter-Korean hotlines, unique symbol for testy ties


These phones communicate within the Joint Security Area between the duty officers on each side. This is not a hotline between Seoul and Pyongyang and certainly not one between Moon and Kim. And when the north does not answer the phone the duty officer on the South side communicates (one way) via bull horn.

Communications have been restarted when the duty officer on the north side received authorization from Pyongyang to simply answer the phone. We should not read too much into this "hotline" communication.

Of course if Moon and Kim had agreed and desired to really have an open line of communications they could have exchanged cell phone numbers and email addresses.
What we know about inter-Korean hotlines, unique symbol for testy ties
Author of the article:
Reuters
Hyonhee Shin
Publishing date:
Jul 27, 2021  •  1 day ago  •  2 minute read  •   Join the conversation
Article content
SEOUL — South and North Korea reopened their hotlines on Tuesday after a yearlong communications vacuum that had flared tensions and soured relations.
At least 49 hotlines have been set up between the two Koreas since the 1970s, and Seoul sees them as a crucial tool to prevent misunderstandings from unexpected military developments, especially along their shared heavily fortified demilitarized zone (DMZ).
The lines were also meant to arrange diplomatic meetings, coordinate air and sea traffic, facilitate humanitarian discussions, minimize impacts from natural disasters and cooperate on economic issues.
But the isolated North has often cut the channels in times of strained ties, especially when negotiations aimed at dismantling its nuclear and missile programs collapsed.
North Korea severed the hotlines on June 9, 2020, in the wake of a failed February 2019 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and former U.S. President Donald Trump, which South Korean President Moon Jae-in had offered to mediate.
South Korea had nonetheless kept trying to call every day at the same times, 9 a.m. and 4 p.m.
North Korea lashed out at Seoul, and days later, it blew up a joint liaison office launched in its border town of Kaesong in 2018.
That dealt a further blow to efforts to persuade Kim to abandon nuclear weapons, and Moon’s hopes of building peace with the erratic neighbor.
Before then, the hotlines were last cut in 2016 amid North Korean ballistic missile and nuclear tests. During that period, South Korean officials sometimes used a bullhorn to shout messages across the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom, the only spot along the DMZ where troops from both sides stand face to face.
When the lines were restored in 2018, liaison officials spoke mostly using desktop telephone consoles dating to the 1970s, each the size of a small refrigerator. They would usually exchange brief greetings or notices, and fax machines were used to send detailed messages and documents, Seoul officials said.
The system features a computer screen, disk drives and USB ports, as well as two color-coded telephone handsets – a red phone to receive incoming calls from the North and a green one for outgoing calls. No other numbers can be called, as the phones only connect to each other’s counterpart.
All of the systems involve similar equipment, though newer systems were installed in 2009, according to the South’s Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs and operates most of the hotlines.
The South Korean military has also released photos of its own small, olive-drab desktop phones labeled “two-sided inter-Korean hotline.”
Little is known about the North’s equipment.
Moon and Kim had agreed to open a direct line between their offices, but Seoul officials said in 2019 that it had never been used. (Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Gerry Doyle)
11. Even in absence, North Korea's presence felt at Tokyo Games
Heed the assessment of Professor Lee.

If past behavior is an indication, weapons tests might take place in the months before those Games. While the North will likely avoid anything considered a provocation during the Tokyo Games, such tests could come when U.S. and South Korean soldiers conduct their annual military drills next month.
“Confrontation followed by dialogue always works best” for North Korea, said Lee, the Tufts professor. “I expect the regime to increase its ‘net value’ — as top athletes do in international sport competition — with a superb performance, of the martial kind, before the Beijing Winter Games.”

Even in absence, North Korea's presence felt at Tokyo Games
AP · by FOSTER KLUG · July 28, 2021
TOKYO (AP) — North Korea isn’t at the Tokyo Olympics this summer. And therein lies a tale — one of sports and viruses, but most of all a tale of complex politics.
While it’s not making headlines here, the North’s absence is noteworthy, especially among those who watch the intersection of sports and diplomacy — and the way North Korea’s propaganda machine uses international attention to advance its needs.
The no-show is especially striking when contrasted with the last Games. Perhaps the hottest story of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, was the North Korean delegation, which included 22 athletes, hundreds of cheerleaders and leader Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister.
The coronavirus is the biggest reason for North Korea’s decision not to come to Tokyo. Always highly sensitive to communicable disease outbreaks, the nation has shut its borders even more tightly than normal, worried that its fragile health care system and rickety economy could not withstand a major outbreak. That, in turn, could imperil the ruling Kim family’s grip on power.
ADVERTISEMENT
But there are other things at work, too, according to analysts.
North Korean sports, like much about the country, are intertwined with calculations about its pursuit of a nuclear-armed long-range missile program to target the U.S. mainland. After a brief period of engagement, Kim Jong Un now fears the introduction of another virus — the cultural one from the wealthy South — and may be biding his time until next year’s Winter Games. Those take place in China, its longtime ally with which it shares a land border.
Kim may have also decided there’s nothing to be gained by nuclear diplomacy at the Tokyo games, as Washington shows no intention of accepting Pyongyang’s demand to end sanctions.
Neither do sports exist in a void inside the North, where domestic audiences consume messages controlled by the government every step of the way. Everything there is potential fodder for the propaganda mavens who try to maintain domestic unity and regime loyalty.
Kim Jong Un may use the North’s absence from the Tokyo Games as a way to signal to his people that he values protecting them from the coronavirus — in rival Japan, no less — more than the possible glory his athletes could have enjoyed.
“North Korea excels in propaganda at international sport events,” said Sung-Yoon Lee, a Korean studies professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University in Massachusetts.
So it was likely a tough decision for North Korea not to attend the Tokyo Games, “which it could have dominated in the propaganda field by sending a few athletes, cheerleaders, and First Sister Kim Yo Jong,” Lee said, referring to the leader’s sister, Kim Yo Jong.
ADVERTISEMENT
Missing a chance to score propaganda points “reflects some serious COVID paranoia,” Joshua Pollack, a North Korea expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said of the North’s decision not to attend. The country clearly isn’t ready for the delta variant, he says, “and the Olympic village seems like a great way to bring it home.”
September brought a vivid example of North Korea’s virus fears. Seoul accused the North of fatally shooting a South Korean fishery official found in the North’s waters and then burning his body — moves apparently in line with an anti-virus policy that involves shooting anyone crossing the border illegally.
“They don’t have medicines to cure COVID-19, their medical infrastructure isn’t in good shape and they’re not receiving vaccines,” said Kim Yeol Soo, an analyst with South Korea’s Korea Institute for Military Affairs. “So they might not think that going to the Olympics and winning a couple of gold medals means that much.”
Geopolitical considerations might also be at play. Unlike the 2018 Pyeongchang Games, where North Korea was deeply interested in reaching hearts and minds in the South, there is no such desire to make nice with Japan, which was the violent colonial overlord of the Korean Peninsula before and during World War II.
At Pyeongchang, North Korea had no real medal contenders, but it was among the most watched nations at the Games, with a huge delegation highlighted by a 229-member all-female cheering squad.
After months of U.S.-North Korean tensions ahead of those Games, athletes from both Koreas marched together into the Olympic Stadium below a “unification’” flag. They fielded a joint women’s ice hockey team. And Kim Yo Jong made the first-ever visit to the South by a member of the Kim dynasty since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Diplomacy blossomed after these Games, too, highlighted by several summits between then-U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, and also by Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
Not much came of it, however, and North Korea still faces the hardline sanctions that are crippling its economy. So it has since engaged little with its rivals, though this week the Koreas restored suspended communication channels and agreed to improve ties.
When North Korea does show up at the Olympics, sports often take a back seat to politics. The nation goes to great lengths to control its athletes and its message, but there are still surprising, unscripted moments of contact with other athletes. At Pyeongchang, for instance, a selfie taken by smiling North and South Korean skaters went viral online.
And what about sports themselves? North Korea could have seen success at Tokyo in weightlifting, boxing, women’s wrestling and women’s marathon. Fears, however, seem to have outweighed the perceived benefits.
Those include worries about outside influences, especially South Korean culture, infiltrating the country. “The contrast between the prosperous South and the struggling North is that much less palatable these days,” Pollack said.
Some expect North Korea to emerge again from its self-imposed lockdown next year when China, a key political and aid lifeline, hosts the Winter Games.
If past behavior is an indication, weapons tests might take place in the months before those Games. While the North will likely avoid anything considered a provocation during the Tokyo Games, such tests could come when U.S. and South Korean soldiers conduct their annual military drills next month.
“Confrontation followed by dialogue always works best” for North Korea, said Lee, the Tufts professor. “I expect the regime to increase its ‘net value’ — as top athletes do in international sport competition — with a superb performance, of the martial kind, before the Beijing Winter Games.”
___
AP writer Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul contributed to this story. Foster Klug, news director for Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific at The Associated Press, has been covering Asia since 2005 and is based in Tokyo. More AP Olympics: https://apnews.com/hub/2020-tokyo-olympics and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports
AP · by FOSTER KLUG · July 28, 2021



12. Korea Sent More COVID Aid to China Than to Poor Countries

Wow. Not a good look.

Excerpts:
Last year, the ministry set up the program to share Korea's resources in fighting the coronavirus pandemic with countries in need. A total of $51.61 million was spent on it, but by far the biggest beneficiary was China with $4 million.
Next came Iran ($2.69 million), Myanmar ($1.29 million), Ecuador ($1.27 million), and Pakistan ($1.22 million). Supplies sent to China included face masks, face shields, latex gloves, and sanitizer equipment.

Korea Sent More COVID Aid to China Than to Poor Countries
Korea sent more humanitarian aid to China under a program to help developing nations fight coronavirus last year than to poorer countries in need, opposition lawmakers revealed Tuesday.
Shipments of face masks and protective gear for medical professionals to China were worth US$4 million, much more than the $2.69 million it sent to Iran, the second largest beneficiary.
Opposition lawmakers accused the Foreign Ministry of spending taxpayers' money to curry favor with China so President Xi Jinping will visit Seoul before President Moon Jae-ins term ends.
"Was it necessary to give the most amount of aid to China even when there are many countries that really need outside help?," one asked.
Last year, the ministry set up the program to share Korea's resources in fighting the coronavirus pandemic with countries in need. A total of $51.61 million was spent on it, but by far the biggest beneficiary was China with $4 million.
Next came Iran ($2.69 million), Myanmar ($1.29 million), Ecuador ($1.27 million), and Pakistan ($1.22 million). Supplies sent to China included face masks, face shields, latex gloves, and sanitizer equipment.
By region, however, Africa topped the list with $19.75 million, followed by Asia-Pacific ($13.93 million), the Americas ($13.79 million), and Europe ($4.15 million). Twelve countries received more than $1 million worth of supplies.
The figures were called in from the ministry by People Power Party lawmaker Thae Yong-ho.

13. Seoul refocuses on roads, railway projects with Pyongyang

My snarky comment: invasion routes? which direction?


Wednesday
July 28, 2021
Seoul refocuses on roads, railway projects with Pyongyang

South and North Korean officials connect the rails between the two Koreas at Panmun Station in Kaesong at a symbolic groundbreaking ceremony on Dec. 26, 2018 to begin a project to reconnect their roads and railways. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
 
After the two Koreas restored key communication lines Tuesday, Seoul signaled its willingness to resume stalled joint projects such as connecting roads and railways. 
 
Park Soo-hyun, senior Blue House secretary for public communication, told MBC radio Tuesday, “The direction of U.S. policy toward North Korea has been based on the [2018] Singapore summit. Similarly, wouldn’t we also want to start from the foundation of the existing agreement between the two Koreas?”
 
Park was asked about the resumption of joint projects based on the inter-Korean agreement of Sept. 19, 2018, including the excavation of the remains of soldiers killed in the 1950-53 Korean War. 
 
“I think that various proposals should hopefully be discussed in the future,” he added.
 
The Singapore agreement was signed between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump in their first summit on June 12, 2018. President Moon Jae-in and Kim in the Panmunjom Declaration of April 2018 and Pyongyang Declaration of September 2018 agreed to move along reconnecting roads and railways among other inter-Korean cooperative projects.
 
Park also expressed hope for another summit between Moon and Kim before the end of Moon’s five-year term next May. 
 
“Restoring the inter-Korean communication lines is the first step, and we are now standing at the starting line,” said Park. “An inter-Korean summit is another stepping stone, and the ultimate goal is to reach a peace process on the Korean Peninsula,” which he said would bring about denuclearization. 
 
The Blue House announced Tuesday that the two Koreas restored four communication lines: the Panmunjom channel at the inter-Korean border village, the inter-Korean liaison office line and two military hotlines. 
 
Pyongyang in June 2020 unilaterally cut off all inter-Korean communication lines in protest of what it claimed were Seoul’s failure to prevent activists from sending propaganda leaflets across the border.
 
The two countries’ leaders had been exchanging letters since April and agreed on the need to restore such severed communication, said the Blue House, which prompted speculation of another inter-Korean summit and the possibility of resuming joint projects.  
 
“I expect that the restoration of the communication lines yesterday will have a positive effect on advancing and developing inter-Korean relations,” said Park in the radio interview. “Of course, this also encompasses the wish for this to be an opportunity to enable a virtuous cycle that moves along relations between the United States and North Korea.” 
 
Kim Jong-un reportedly showed interest in modernizing his country’s railways and made detailed inquiries about the South’s KTX high-speed rail system after North Korean officials visited South Korea for the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in February 2018. 
 
The two Koreas held a symbolic groundbreaking ceremony to modernize and reconnect roads and railways across borders in December 2018 as agreed in the leaders' summit. Moon and Kim agreed to hold a groundbreaking ceremony before the year's end in their Pyongyang summit. However, that project has been in limbo as North-U.S. negotiations came to a standstill in 2019. 
 
Seoul officials have indicated that the joint roads and railways project could be a starting point for economic cooperation for the two Koreas, and the Moon administration has been searching for ways to resume it.
 
Lee Soo-hyuck, South Korea’s ambassador to the United States, in a press conference in Washington in January 2020 called the inter-Korean railway project “the one we need to push for most urgently,” given the fact that it is the most feasible and will take the longest time, out of all such joint projects proposed by the Moon government. 
 
However, economic cooperation projects need to find a way around tricky UN and U.S. sanctions, and the South has to request exemptions from United Nations Security Council sanctions to bring in equipment and supplies to the North. 
 
The U.S. State Department welcomed the restoration of the inter-Korean communication lines Tuesday, calling it “a positive step.”
 
Jalina Porter, principal deputy spokesperson for the State Department, told reporters, "I’ll say that the U.S. supports inter-Korean dialogue and engagement, and of course welcomes today’s announcement of restoration of inter-Korean communication lines, and we certainly believe that this is a positive step.”
 
When asked if this would help pave the way for dialogue between North Korea and the United States, she said, “Diplomacy and dialogue are essential to achieving complete denuclearization and establishing permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.”
 
Likewise, Kurt Campbell, the White House National Security Council's policy coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, told reporters at an event hosted by the Korea-U.S. Alliance Foundation, "We are supportive of the dialogue and communication with North Korea.” 
 
This is in line with the Joe Biden administration’s "calibrated" approach of being open to engagement with Pyongyang without any preconditions.
 

Kurt Campbell, the While House policy coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, speaks at a breakfast event hosted by the Korea-U.S. Alliance Foundation Tuesday at a hotel in Washington after the two Koreas restored their communications lines earlier that day. [YONHAP]
However, Seoul and Washington have not always seen eye-to-eye on the pacing of inter-Korean cooperation and denuclearization talks. 
 
Seoul and Washington in June agreed to end a controversial working group meant to coordinate their approaches on the North's denuclearization, sanctions enforcement and inter-Korean cooperation. This was considered a conciliatory gesture toward Pyongyang, which has accused the working group as being a hindrance to inter-Korean ties, though it has also been a platform for the South to secure sanctions exemptions from the United States. Seoul and Washington agreed to continue discussions through other platforms. 
 
Another variable in inter-Korean cooperation are joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington, which Pyongyang has vehemently protested, with annual summer drills expected to be held next month. 
 
News of the exchanges of letters between the Korean leaders has prompted speculation of another summit being in the works, though the Blue House Wednesday denied such media reports. 
 
Moon and Kim are in talks to hold a summit as part of efforts to restore relations, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing South Korean government sources, adding such inter-Korean talks could also help restart negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington.
 
Park Kyung-mee, a Blue House spokesperson, called the report “not true” and said that “there have been no discussions” on the matter. 
 
Reuters also reported that the two sides were discussing rebuilding their joint liaison office in the truce village of Panmunjom. Pyongyang blew up the joint liaison office in Kaesong in June 2020.
 
In a move away from bellicose rhetoric, North Korean leader Kim attended an annual conference Tuesday to mark the anniversary of the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War and made no mention of strengthening his country's nuclear arsenal, according to state media Wednesday, unlike last year’s speech. He also made no mention of relations with Seoul or Washington. 
 
Kim in his 2020 speech flaunted the North’s "reliable and effective self-defense nuclear deterrence.”
 
The South’s Defense Ministry and Unification Ministry confirmed Wednesday that regular daily phone calls took place with their North Korean counterparts through the hotlines as agreed upon the previous day. 
 
 

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]

14.  Still no signs that North Korea is distributing food to ordinary people


This is one of the north Korean paradoxes. The people need the markets to survive because the party/regime/state is unable to make the public distribution system work. Yet the regime is working harder to shut down the markets than it is to ensure the welfare of the Korean people.
Relatedly, North Korean authorities have recently begun exerting tight control on markets through the “June 17 Task Force,” which is tasked with cracking down on food hoarding and price gouging among food sellers.
Grain sellers are responding to the crackdowns by hiding their food stores, the source claimed. He predicted food prices will continue to climb for the time being, further straining the food situation.
“More and more locals are suffering malnutrition, and some people are even starving in certain areas,” said the source. “If the closure of the border and market controls continue under the guise of coronavirus quarantine efforts, even people with excellent survival skills will have a tough time getting through this.”

Still no signs that North Korea is distributing food to ordinary people - Daily NK
North Korean authorities had held lectures claiming the state would provide people with three months of rice from military stores at lower-than-market prices
By Lee Chae Un - 2021.07.28 2:53pm
dailynk.com · July 28, 2021
North Korean authorities provided people throughout the country with food at lower-than-market prices in early July, but no food distributions have been detected since.
A source in Yanggang Province told Daily NK on Tuesday that there has been no talk of food provisions since North Korean authorities sold locals five days’ worth of food at bargain prices earlier this month. “There’s been no relevant orders from the leadership, either,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Previously, North Korean authorities had held lectures claiming the state would provide people with three months of rice from military stores at lower-than-market prices.
The lectures came after the authorities unveiled a “special order” from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during the Third Enlarged Meeting of the Eighth Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea in mid-June.
Until early July, however, nothing had been done to implement this pledge. Then, on July 6, the authorities began distributing food, starting in Pyongyang. Generally speaking, families received five days’ worth of food at the time.
Based on the source’s account, North Korean authorities will not keep their initial promise to distribute three months of food. He also claimed that state-run food shops are providing spotty sales of food.
In this undated photograph, North Koreans are seen peddling goods at a street market in Hyesan, Yanggang Province / Image: Daily NK
North Koreans are reportedly wondering whether the authorities will actually provide them with more food, whispering to each other: “The state apparently has no grain, either.”
With the state’s distribution of food on hold, market grain prices appear to be rising once again. A kilogram of rice had been selling for KPW 5,500 at Hyesan Market through July 18, but the price has recently climbed to KPW 6,000. Moreover, the price of corn has climbed slightly, from KPW 3,300 to 3,500.
Food prices are rising because business people are refusing to sell off their stocks, according to the source.
Relatedly, North Korean authorities have recently begun exerting tight control on markets through the “June 17 Task Force,” which is tasked with cracking down on food hoarding and price gouging among food sellers.
Grain sellers are responding to the crackdowns by hiding their food stores, the source claimed. He predicted food prices will continue to climb for the time being, further straining the food situation.
“More and more locals are suffering malnutrition, and some people are even starving in certain areas,” said the source. “If the closure of the border and market controls continue under the guise of coronavirus quarantine efforts, even people with excellent survival skills will have a tough time getting through this.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · July 28, 2021


15. Restored hotlines may indicate North's willingness for dialogue with U.S.
This is wishful thinking. Again I hope it is true but I am very skeptical. I think the regime may be setting the conditions for future blackmail diplomacy. I remain concerned that it is setting up for a possible provocation around the August exercise in order to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.

Wednesday
July 28, 2021
Restored hotlines may indicate North's willingness for dialogue with U.S.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un lays a flower during a ceremony to commemorate the anniversary of the Korean War armistice in Pyongyang on Tuesday. The photo is a screen capture of North Korean state media KCTV. [YONHAP]
 
By restoring the direct hotline between the two Koreas, Pyongyang may be considering re-engaging with the United States in dialogue, some Korean experts noted.
 
“The North knows that the Biden administration, unlike the Trump administration, places a strong emphasis on the U.S.-South Korea alliance,” said Kim Jin-a, a senior researcher on North Korea at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis in Seoul. “North Korea knows that it will not be able to engage the United States in dialogue without South Korea.”
 
The two Koreas on Tuesday restored their shared hotline, bringing back the direct communication channel that had been defunct for 413 days, after the North pulled the plug in protest of what it claimed were the South’s failures to prevent activists from sending propaganda leaflets across the border in June 2020.
 
The restoration of the hotline on Tuesday coincided with the 68th anniversary of the armistice agreement that ended the three years of fighting in the Korean War on July 27, 1953.
 
It was not the first time that the North severed the channel of communication with the South in times of deteriorated relations. The direct line at Panmunjom dates back to 1971.
 
According to multiple sources in the Korean government, the inter-Korean consultations to restore the hotline were held very recently, with nothing definitive set on the ground even during the visit of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman to Korea from July 21 to 23.
 
During her trip to Asia, Sherman repeatedly called on North Korea to respond to the U.S. call for dialogue; once, following her meetings with her Japanese and Korean counterparts in Tokyo, and then reiterating the call during her visit in Seoul.
 
Pyongyang, which usually issues a critical message aimed at the United States during a visit by an American official to Korea, such as during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Korea in March and U.S. nuclear envoy Sung Kim’s visit last month, was silent during Sherman’s recent visit to Seoul.
 
Some experts pointed out the prolonged famine in North Korea as another reason for its recent actions. North Korea has been reported to be facing one of its worst famines, which, coupled with the lockdown due to Covid-19 concerns and the ongoing UN sanctions over its nuclear weapons development, have been reported to be a mounting challenge for the regime.
 
“It seems that North Korea has had a moment of reckoning, as its deadlock situation has been ongoing, and it has had no outlets to improve its economy,” said Kim Jung, professor on North Korea studies at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “Pyongyang may be thinking that it will need the help of Seoul if it wants to request [the United States and the international community] a lifting of the sanctions.”
 
The U.S. government has responded positively to the restoration of the inter-Korean hotline.
 
“The U.S. supports inter-Korean dialogue and engagement, and of course welcomes today’s announcement of restoration of inter-Korean communication lines, and we certainly believe that this is a positive step,” said U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jalina Porter on Tuesday. “Diplomacy and dialogue are essential to achieving complete denuclearization and establishing permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.” 
 
If it is Pyongyang’s intention to improve the inter-Korean ties for a dialogue with the United States, the U.S.-Korea joint military exercises scheduled to take place next month may be a test to its resolve.
 
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the Eighth Workers’ Party Congress in January openly criticized the joint military drills, stating that Seoul has repeatedly ignored its warnings to stop the drills, which Pyongyang sees as a violation of inter-Korean agreements.
 
In commemoration of the National Korean War Veterans Armistice Day on Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden emphasized the U.S.-Korea military partnership.
 
“Training side-by-side with the Korean military, our Armed Forces abroad help keep the watch while proudly upholding the legacy of those serving before them,” he said. “Our partnership remains crucial to maintaining peace and stability today, and to expanding economic growth in a critical region of the world.”

BY YOO JEE-HYE, PARK HYUN-JU AND ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]


16.  Many North Korean farms still need to be properly weeded

The north Korean narrative rests on propaganda. (no surprise of course)

Excerpts:
By contrast, North Korean media has stated that the country’s “agricultural processes” are running smoothly, while emphasizing the importance of “increasing grain production.” The Rodong Sinmun, for example, claimed recently that “agricultural processes, including the weeding of paddy fields, are proceeding as planned nationwide.”
However, weeding has progressed as scheduled only in roadside fields that the authorities can scan as they drive by.
A lack of pesticides and workers is reportedly to blame for the sluggish progress.
North Korea has recognized its chronic shortage of pesticides and fertilizer, but this year’s conditions are exceptionally poor: agricultural supplies – which include pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers – have fallen to 80% of what was available last year.
Many North Korean farms still need to be properly weeded - Daily NK
Agricultural supplies - which include pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers - have fallen to 80% of that of the previous year
By Seulkee Jang - 2021.07.28 11:53am
dailynk.com · July 28, 2021
Following North Korea’s acknowledgement to the United Nations that it is suffering food shortages, Daily NK has learned that insufficient agricultural supplies, such as pesticides and fertilizers, have hindered the weeding of rice fields this year.
“The second round of weeding should have finished by this time of year, but many fields have yet to start their first round,” a source from North Pyongan Province told Daily NK on July 21. “Weeding has been completed only in easily noticed areas of the fields. Other parts of the fields are so overrun by weeds that rice cultivation will likely be negatively impacted.”
By contrast, North Korean media has stated that the country’s “agricultural processes” are running smoothly, while emphasizing the importance of “increasing grain production.” The Rodong Sinmun, for example, claimed recently that “agricultural processes, including the weeding of paddy fields, are proceeding as planned nationwide.”
However, weeding has progressed as scheduled only in roadside fields that the authorities can scan as they drive by.
A lack of pesticides and workers is reportedly to blame for the sluggish progress.
North Korea has recognized its chronic shortage of pesticides and fertilizer, but this year’s conditions are exceptionally poor: agricultural supplies – which include pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers – have fallen to 80% of what was available last year.
Moreover, pulling the weeds by hand is not a solution because many people are reluctant to be mobilized for agricultural work in rural areas.
Images from a collective farm in Chongsan-ri. / Image: Daily NK
“[The authorities] have recently given instructions to provide the fields protection against heat waves and typhoons, but nobody is coming to work, which means nothing is happening,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Bracing for the poor harvest, the subject of “preparing food substitutes” was brought up during cadre training sessions and lectures for ordinary people.
During these meetings, there has been mention of “rice roots,” eaten by North Koreans to stave off starvation during the Arduous March, and even “peat bread,” which is made by mixing unburned coal powder with a little flour.
The source claims the discussion of food substitutes by government officials suggests this year’s grain production will fall short of projections. “Farmers expect the situation to be worse than the previous year,” he added.
North Korean authorities released a report to the Voluntary National Review (VNR) at the UN High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) on July 13 , stating, “[We are] struggling to meet the target of producing seven million tons of grain. In 2018, 4.95 million tons were produced, the lowest in ten years.”
This is the first time North Korea has publicly disclosed its food shortage through a VNR report.
The submission of the report may be an indirect request by the North Korean authorities for food aid from the international community given signs the country faces a poor harvest this year.
*Translated by Kyungmin Kim
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · July 28, 2021







V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Company Name | Website
basicImage