September 21, 2020

  • This is the third issue of the election diary.  I think I will try to send it out on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays until the election.
  • Several people have signed on in the last day or so.  If you want to check out the issues you missed, I'll have an index with links below.
  • Today I want to share some personal feelings and thoughts about Ruth Bader Ginsburg.  Tomorrow I'll share some good links about her and some political reflections about how her death may change the presidential election and the future direction of the Supreme Court.
--Mike
WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

Since I wrote my last diary entry, the big news is the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.  I wanted to use today's diary entry to share some thoughts about that:  both personally and politically.
 
But before jumping into that, I did a quick check of different news websites to see what stories are being headlined.  It shocked me.  In this very polarized country, where Americans are certainly not all singing the same hymn, it is probably because we aren't even using the same hymnal.  Depending on your main news source, here is what you are being told is real:
 
FOX
  • Trump Previews Debate with Biden:  "I've done more in 47 months than he's done in 47 years."
  • Pandemic Could Have Been Prevented if China and WHO Acted
  • DOJ Names Three Cities for Permitting Anarchy
 
NEW YORK TIMES
  • Trump Says He will Name His Supreme Court Pick By End of Week
  • Trump Baselessly Suggests Democrats Fabricated Ginsburg's Dying Wish
  • Mueller's Team Could Have Done More to Investigate Trump-Russia Links
 
WALL STREET JOURNAL
  • Supreme Court Vacancy Sets Off Debate
  • Conservative Barrett Is Again Seen as Top Hopeful for Seat
  • U.S. Bid to Block We Chat is Halted
  • Pandemic Upends Middle Class Family Finances
 
USA TODAY
 
  • Is 6 Feet Enough?  CDC Walks Back It's Walk-Back on Airborne Transmission of Covid-19
  • Florida Man Fights Off Attacking Alligator by Poking Its Eyes
 
Today's observation:  It's basically the same story over and over, with the protagonists and antagonists sometimes switching roles, with an occasional happy ending...unless you are the alligator.

PERSONAL FEELINGS ABOUT JUSTICE GINSBURG

I heard about her death on Friday night, just after I'd emailed my election diary to all of you.  And I felt an overwhelming sense of darkness and foreboding.  I'd already gotten a couple other pieces of bad news that day (including news from a dear friend that her cancer had returned.)  And I simply had to shut off all the news, as well as my social media, and let my mind live elsewhere for a few hours.  
 
There are people in the country, of course, who have considered RBG a force of evil: a nasty woman.  She has been an open champion for women's rights and a firm supporter of pro-choice when it comes to abortion.  On the singular issue of abortion, many people hated her.  And many people in the country are glad that Mr. Trump will now appoint an anti-abortion justice to take her place. 
 
I never mentioned abortion in 48 years plus of preaching.  For some people, abortion is simply a black and white issue of morality:  they consider it to be the murder of a human being.  Period.  Wrong, period. To be outlawed, period.  And they cannot fathom that a good or thinking person would think otherwise.  
 
But I'm a good person, and a devout Christian, and a strong disciple of what the Bible teaches.  And I happen to think abortion is not so black and white.  It raises a cacophony of conflicting ethical principles.  It is also a medical issue, and a mental health issue, and a gender issue, and a personal issue, and a family issue, and a messy justice issue. 
 
Certainly, abortion as a casual medical procedure, or abortion as a means of means of recreation strikes me as inhumane.  (Although, I've never known anyone whose abortion was either casual or recreational.)  And as a pastor and spiritual counselor, I've always had a spiritual bias toward life.  But the proliferation of emotion and hate and judgmentalism and sensationalism from advocates of either side has left me on the sidelines of the debate. I don't even know how to enter the conversation: probably because there is no conversation, only pain and projection and transference and righteous outrage.  It just doesn't seem so black and white to me.  And Justice Ginsburg's work to keep government out of the decision is something I respect and appreciate.  
 
I have also found assurance in Ruth Bader Ginsburg's laser focus on that clause from the 14thamendment:  No state...shall deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws."  As the Supreme Court debates and decides issues of morality, equality, voter rights, minority rights, LGBTQ+ rights, economic justice, checks and balances on the executive branch...I have always felt comforted that Justice Ginsburg was in the room.
 
Caricatures of her, both among her fans and her enemies, are misleading.  She was always a shy and retiring woman, a brilliant scholar, and a devoted daughter, wife, and mother.  When she got her law degree from Columbia University in the mid-fifties, not a single law firm in New York City would hire her, because she was a woman.  When she started teaching at Rutgers Law School, she was talked into teaching a course on "Women and the Law."  From that work, she began to realize how many laws discriminated against women in this country.  By the early 1960s, she was beginning to challenge many of those laws in the courts.  No lawyer in the history of the United States ever did more to legally dismantle discrimination against women.  Her strategy for taking down discriminatory laws was brilliant.  Her opponents never figured out her plan quick enough to stop her.  
 
After years as a litigator for women's rights, Jimmy Carter made her a federal judge in 1980.  And Bill Clinton used his first Supreme Court appointment to make her an Associate Justice.  Few Supreme Court justices (except Thurgood Marshall) had ever done more prior to going on the court to make a different in American society.
 
When she died, the first clear thought I had was of my daughters and granddaughters.  My granddaughters, of course, are too young to know anything about her yet.  But my daughters were heartbroken.  RBG was a champion to them, an inspiration, a beacon of hope, the one clear matriarch of the women's movement.  RBG made their lives so much better than any generation of women gone before.
 
She will be the first woman EVER, in the history of the United States, to lie in state in the U.S. capitol.  No other woman in the history of our country has ever drawn grieving crowds into the streets and plazas upon her death.  Her death is personal to my daughters...and to so many women who are my friends.  It is personal for them in a way that leaves me on the sidelines, respecting and honoring a grief that I (an old white man) cannot fully know.  
 
And so, from the sidelines, I watch a national sisterhood grieve.  

The fight over her replacement on the Supreme Court is  already ugly. (Politicians have rushed in where only fools dare to tread.)

But as I watch, I hope to honor RBG in my own way.  She faced overwhelming odds and opposition in the justices she sought.  And through it all, she stayed true to her inner quietness, strength, and intelligence.  She never lost heart.  And for good people everywhere, that is our legacy.


The daughters of my friend and colleague, Jess Baldyga.  Jess posted this on the night RBG died.

PREVIOUS ISSUES OF THE ELECTION DIARY


THE STATE OF THE HORSERACE:  SEPTEMBER 21, 2020

As of this morning, the statisticians and their computers at Five-Thirty-Eight give Biden a 77% chance of winning the election, Trump 22%
 
Keep in mind that polls taken right before the election get it wrong approximately 20% of the time.  Polls taken weeks ahead of the election have even more limited "predictive" value. 
 
Usually, 10% of the voters will sway back and forth between one candidate or another, depending on current events and blunders made by one side or the other.  But this year's contest seems to have far fewer voters who are up in the air.  It may be closer to 3-4%.  In other words, no matter what happens in the news, and no matter what Mr. Trump says or does (or what Mr. Biden says or does) it seems as though nearly everyone has already made up their minds.  Numerous articles and media personalities have been discussing whether the death and aftermath of Justice Ginsburg's death will "move the needle" in this election.  I suspect it's going to make the contest nastier, from both sides (and from men as well as women, Mr. President) but I doubt it will tip the end result one way or the other.
 
Remember, it takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.  
 
According to polls and conventional wisdom, as of today, September 21, 2020, President Trump is likely to win the following states, worth 169 electoral votes:  Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).   
 
Likewise, as of today, according to polls and conventional wisdom, Vice President Biden is likely to win the following states, worth 278 votes:  California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10,) Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12), and Wisconsin (10).  
 
Keep in mind that Hillary Clinton was also thought to be ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania at this time four years ago, but ended up losing all those electoral votes to Mr. Trump.  
 
States currently considered totally unpredictable toss-ups, comprising 91 electoral votes:  Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), and Ohio (18).
 
Finally, in a very close race, we need to keep an eye on Nebraska (5) and Maine (4).  These two states have a peculiar way to distribute their electoral votes.  
 
Nebraska sends three congressional representatives to the House of Representatives in Washington D.C., each representing a different region of the state.  (Maine, likewise, sends two representatives, as its population is a bit smaller than Nebraska's.)  
 
For both Nebraska and Maine, the presidential candidate who gets the most votes (statewide) gets two electoral votes.  The remaining electoral votes in those two states are distributed by regional winners, the regions being defined by the boundaries of the various congressional representatives. 
 
In the 2016 election, Ms. Clinton won 3 electoral votes from Maine (two of them because she won the total statewide vote, and one because she won the most votes in Maine's 1st congressional district.  Mr. Trump won the most votes inside Maine's 2nd  congressional district, therefore winning one electoral vote from Maine.
 
In the 2008 election, Mr. McCain won 4 electoral votes from Nebraska (he won the overall total of statewide votes, giving him two electoral votes) and he won the majority of votes in the Nebraska 1st and 3rd congressional districts.  Mr. Obama won the most votes that year in the Nebraska 2nd congressional district, giving him one electoral vote from Nebraska.
 
Here's why this minor peculiarity might be important:  In 2016, if Ms. Clinton had won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan as expected, she still would have only had 268 of the needed 270 electoral votes required to be elected.  She would also have needed to win either an additional state from Mr. Trump, or both the Maine 2nd and the Nebraska 2nd.  The Maine 2nd is a very rural district and often swings Republican.  The Nebraska 2nd district includes Omaha, and it occasionally swings to the Democrats.  In an extremely close election, these two districts could make a huge difference. 
 
Quick Links
Click Here for my website