Is this actually the year you Buy? Sell? Upgrade? If so, let’s catch you up on what has happened and where we are.
The broad stroke is that Manhattan has roared back faster and more substantially than we thought possible back in May and June of last year. There is a natural tendency to compare this time to the financial crisis; however, the underlying fundamentals were quite different then. Prices have not dipped as severely as we saw back then (see chart courtesy UrbanDigs). Likewise, interest rates after the financial crisis were hovering around 5%; whereas now they are in the mid to high 2’s. Liquidity was scarce and financing was extremely difficult to obtain. Today, helped by a surging stock market*, there are trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines awaiting that perfect moment to engage in other assets like real estate. *Some consider the stock market artificially over-heated and unsubstantiated, which could be the signal of an impending sell-off to reap profits, creating even more liquidity to inject into property.
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With the vaccine, comes confidence in our ability as a society to return to a more normal way of life, not to mention a more gentile political environment. That positive sentiment is already in the ether of Manhattan’s marketplace, as growing numbers of buyers have recognized the value and unique opportunity…one in which Manhattan is considered affordable…a good deal. Ask yourself, when in your lifetime have you heard that? It is a rare time which should demand that we all analyze how we can reposition ourselves for success in the coming 5-10 year cycle. I too often hear the “could’ve, should’ve would’ve” stories when clients did not act after the financial crisis. Similarly this is a moment of dislocation, but with far better fundamentals from which to capitalize.
Timing is everything. The market is on the cusp of robust activity. Thus far, the strong demand we have seen has been primarily fueled by those moving within Manhattan. However, many who fled the city will begin to return, not all…but many. They see ample choices and negotiability here, which are non-existent in the suburbs right now. Consider that many who left signed one-year leases and will be looking to come back; that activity will begin soon. Others, who now see Manhattan as potentially affordable, will come to the city for the first time, further filling in the gaps. Then there are the foreigner buyers who will methodically begin to filter in, seeing the weakening dollar as an opportunity. Also, with the ink still wet on Brexit, some will also consider Manhattan a safer bet than London.
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A few other factors to consider: As a result of the shutdown, the bulk of the year’s deal volume came in the 4th quarter. December contracts were up an unexpected 30% from the prior December. Interestingly, busy Decembers have often translated into a busy coming year. Inventory, which drastically contracted at the year-end, is expected to sky-rocket in the first several months of the year. Although discounts vary in degree depending on which market sector you are in, they are currently averaging 10% off the original ask, some more…some less. Some economist feel inflation could be a growing concern in the coming years. Real estate has always been considered a great hedge to fend that off. Assuming this comes about, real estate will become an extremely valued asset to have in one’s portfolio. Seizing a good value today could multiply that benefit.
So the timing for most, even sellers, is beginning to look up; an increase in market activity will reflect a healthy market to trade on both sides.
“It’s all in the negotiation. It’s all in the representation today...everything
is very emotional and sensitive with buyers. Anything can kill a deal in a
second. Use a smart broker who knows how to negotiate for you.”
- Shlomi Reuveni, President & CEO of Reuveni Real Estate
Assemble a good team, which includes an attorney and a mortgage professional. And know that I am here to help you craft that team and plan for success.
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Click the button above to see the latest edition of our post-lockdown deals report, as of 1/5/21. The purpose of the report is to give you verified pricing data on deals negotiated after the NYS lockdown began on March 22nd. This is not meant to be a count of deals signed since the lockdown, as many of those haven’t closed yet.
To be included, a sale must meet all the following criteria:
1) Listed through the RLS, by all firms.
2) Have a contract signed after March 22, 2020
3) Closed and recorded on ACRIS
The spreadsheet, accessible through the above link, is a running total we add to each week. Keep in mind some sales may drop off if we find out the contract signed date was incorrect. Be sure to click on the respective tabs for each borough at the bottom of the document.
Below is a comparison of the data in this report to the same period last year:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Connecticut you Ask?
Let's Ask John Engel and his Team
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Rates are at near historic lows |
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Example of Purchasing Power
Interest Rates:
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 3.000% vs. rates of 4.625%, just couple years ago.
$1M borrowed at 2.750% = $4,082/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $1,059/month or $12,708/year.
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 2.750%, $4,082/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,216/month only afforded you a $794,000 mortgage.
That is 20% more purchasing power than 2 years ago, just because of interest rates.
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Hamptons' & North Fork 3rd Quarter (2020): click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
Other Markets:
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Degree Zero:
Drawing at Midcentury
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“Zero means ‘nothing,’” wrote the Japanese artist Saburo Murakami in 1953, “start with nothing, completely original, no artificial meaning.” Bringing together approximately 80 works on paper from MoMA’s collection, Degree Zero: Drawing at Midcentury illuminates how artists used drawing to forge a new visual language in the aftermath of World War II. Modest, immediate, and direct, drawing was the ideal medium for this period of renewal. Mimicking the look of language, it appeared as graffiti-like scribbling, or borrowed from traditional calligraphies. Its geometric forms sought to communicate universal ideals, and its accumulations of marks reflected society’s new urge to amass.
Spanning five continents, the exhibition looks across movements, geographies, and generations to highlight connections between artists who shared common materials and ideas between 1948 and 1961. Featuring works by Louise Bourgeois, Yayoi Kusama, Henri Matisse, Jackson Pollock, Alfredo Volpi, and many others, as well as recent acquisitions by artists such as Uche Okeke, the exhibition shows how drawing allowed artists at this postwar moment to start again from scratch.
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A Running List of New Restaurants That Opened During the Pandemic
A source for Thai drinking snacks in Bushwick, an outdoor beer garden
in Williamsburg, and more openings across New York City
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By Eater Staff - Photo of Biriyani Kitchen
For many others, though, the novel coronavirus pandemic has meant having to figure out plans for opening, without the “re.” In the months since the state’s restaurants closed for indoor dine-in service, dozens of restaurants have moved forward with plans to open their doors, sometimes because they had prepared a robust delivery program ahead of time, but more often because their owners saw no other choice. The newcomers include sourdough pizza joints, vegan Ethiopian restaurants, modest dumpling spots, and all-day cafes.
Here’s a round-up of NYC restaurants that opened during — and in the face of — the novel coronavirus pandemic. This list will be updated weekly.
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Episode #100, Rob interviews his idol, The Galloping Gourmet |
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All You Can Eat Podcast
In Episode #100, Rob interviews his idol, The Galloping Gourmet.
Graham Kerr, known as The Galloping Gourmet, was an onscreen persona conceived from a book he co-authored with notable wine critic Len Evans, titled The Galloping Gourmets. The book chronicled their 35 day journey dining at some of the finest restaurants around the globe. Seems that it might’ve even inspired Anthony Bourdain’s Parts Unknown.
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The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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* G R A F F I T I - Cooking @ Home * |
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami |
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
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Brown Harris Stevens
130 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor,
New York, NY 10011
(917) 701 3907
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