Weekly Analyst Review

19 October 2022

Some time between 10 October 2022 and 15 October 2022, Chechen Telegram channels announced that Abdul Hakim Shishani and Rustam Azhiev (Ajiev), along with a group of his militants, left Idlib, Syria and arrived in Ukraine for hijrah.

Rumors about his joining the Ukrainian Forces appeared in the middle of the summer soon after Akhmed Zakaev, a leader of the Chechen resistance who has been abroad for years, issued a statement announcing the creation of the “Chechen House in Poland”, which would provide legal protection for Chechens from political prosecution of Kadyrov’s regime. Zakaev also stated that the Forum of Free People would be conducted there, which the main objective would be the liberation of Chechnya. According to him, the fight against “Russian occupants” should be started in Chechnya because the Chechen people had sought independence for a long time.

It should be noted that both AQC and IS Central have been very clear that the Ukraine-Russian War was not a just jihadist cause; and that hijrah (travel jihad) is strictly forbidden. The idea is that this is a war between white people and thus, "let the white people kill each other off before getting involved." As such, Abdul Hakim Shishani has faced harsh criticism from the overall general jihadist community and in response, the Ajnad al-Kavkaz leader released a video explaining the reasons behind his commitment to fight for Ukraine.

It remains unclear how HTS leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Joulani will react on the retreat of Abdul Hakim Shishani and his fighters from the Idlib’s military theater to the Ukraine’s.

On 15 October 2022, Ahmed Zakaev and other militant commanders from the Jihadist Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) sphere in Idlib, Syria met with Abdul Hakim Shishani in Ukraine. Ahmed Zakaev, who arrived in Ukraine early in 2022, promoted Abdul Hakim Shishani to the rank of Colonel according to TRAC sources. Abdul Hakim purportedly received this promotion for his hard work, commitment, and military performance. After establishing a committee of the oppressed people from the post-Soviet region U.S.S.R., Ahmed Zakaev was then appointed the deputy of commander-in-chief of Ichkeria to improve and coordinate the Jihadist Chechen Forces. At the end of this meeting, Zakaev stated that he was going to fight for independent Ichreria and global community and the global community expressed readiness to accept Chechen statehood.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Al-Qaeda Voice of Africa – Emphasis on the Danger of

Education, Media and Healthcare in Nigeria

Image: A portion of the cover of the publication.

Al-Qaeda released a new magazine, "Voice of Africa" and given the high quality of this magazine, this is a robust recruitment effort by the organization. Their goal is to recruit Muslims in Nigeria by convincing them that the Nigerian government is treating them badly, as a result of the Crusades and British Colonialism. The magazine further emphasizes that various people including Zionists and atheists are responsible for the corruption of Muslims in Nigeria and that in order for them to break free from these bonds, they need to follow a pure form of Islam as the one followed by al-Qaeda.

At this time, it is unclear the impact that this splashy magazine will make in Nigeria, given the influence the lucrative Bandit industry has had in Nigeria and the fact that Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) is thoroughly embedded in Nigeria. It is more likely that the pious would gravitate to Islamic State over al-Qaeda in the region.

What is interesting is that before this magazine’s release, al-Qaeda supporters were discussing expansion efforts into Sudan, a location where they actually can make an impact.

TRAC Incident Report:

Azawad Militia Attempting to Imitate / Disguise Themselves

as Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) By Using Red Head

Scarves in Kidal Area of Mali

Image: Azawad Militia Members wearing red head scarves

Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) uses red head scarves to identify friend or foe while in the heat of battle. A simple, yet effective, battle plan. The fact that the Azawad Militia are seen wearing the red head scarves is a tactic to confuse battle field operations. However, Islamic State insiders were the first to report the Azawad’s plan so the sub diffuse will likely not work.

TRAC has long monitored the situation between National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), and Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) and predicts a devastating clash between the groups in Menaka soon, perhaps Gao area as well.

TRAC Incident Report:

IEDs Detonated Near Thai–Myanmar Friendship Bridge in Mae Sot, Tak Province – Myawaddy, Kayin State, Myanmar -Thailand

Image: Photos of two of the burned out Baeza trucks

On 15 October 2022, two Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) exploded near the Thai–Myanmar Friendship Bridge in Mae Sot, Tak Province - Myawaddy, Kayin State.

The first explosion, according to the sources, took place at the Myawaddy-Mae Sot checkpoint at around 7:20 pm. The second IED later exploded in Bayinnaung Market, which was within a 1km radius of the Myawaddy-Mae Sot checkpoint.

Although massive infrastructural and material losses were sustained, no casualties were reported; and officials suspect separatists in Myanmar are behind these explosions.

This is the second time that an explosion has taken place near the Thai–Myanmar Friendship Bridge this year. The former explosion took place on 23 April 2022, which was a car bomb attack causing similar infrastructural losses.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Found Inside a Car Upon an Arrest, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Photo Report:

Al-Shabaab Media Outlet Published Propaganda Photo Set from 12 October 2022 Attack in Yasuman, Hiran, Somalia

TRAC Incident Report: Security Forces Rescue the Mayor and 8 Other Officials from a Group of Armed Kidnappers, Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico

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