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Quotes of the Day:
“Psychological operations, which may precede, accompany, replace, or follow applications of force, constitute the planned use of propaganda and physical actions such as terror to influence the behavior of friendly, enemy, or neutral audiences in support of political military aims. PSYOP is neither well used nor widely understood in the West, partly because it seldom is possible to prove what worked. Skills required are super specialized and rare. Technology is less useful than intellect.
Propagandists wield words as nonviolent offensive and defensive weapon systems that publicize, conceal, or misrepresent the real source to set stages properly, exploit successes, minimize failures, and make the most of mixed results. Cohesive programs, which put collective good (variously defined) above self-interest, solicit compliance and collaboration, whether the objective is stability or subversion. Divisive programs, conversely, seek to separate individuals from groups and groups from each other or society at large. Apathy, panic, disobedience, desertion, and surrender are typical objectives.”
- John M. Collins, 1987
“Listen carefully to first criticisms made of your work. Note just what it is about your work that critics don’t like - then cultivate it. THat’s the only part of your work that’s individual and worth keeping.”
- Jean Cocteau
"The struggle which we are witnessing goes by the name of political warfare, psychological warfare, or propaganda warfare... It is time we learned something of political warfare, for we have paid heavily for our ignorance."
- Wallace Carroll, 1948
1. Long Overdue Paradigm Shift: A Human Rights up Front Approach toward North Korea
2. With Freedom, the People of North Korea Can Make the Miracle on the Taedong River
3. #NorthKorea: Missile provocations and arms for Russia: David Maxwell, FDD. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill
4. North Korea fires 3 more missiles a day after launching barrage of 23
5. N. Korea fires suspected ICBM toward East Sea: S. Korean military
6. Blinken reaffirms U.S. commitment to defense of S. Korea in talk with S. Korean counterpart
7. North Korea ICBM may have failed in flight, officials say; allies extend major drills
8. N. Korea's Hwasong-17 ICBM launch seems to have ended in failure: source
9. North Korea covertly supplying Russia with artillery, U.S. says
10. Analysis | What Nukes Does North Korea Have and Could They Hit the US?
11. S. Korea considering additional unilateral N.K. sanctions over ICBM launch: ministry
12. U.S. condemns N. Korea's ICBM launch, urges int'l community to fully implement U.N. sanctions
13. Is North Korea aligning itself with Putin against Ukraine?
14. North Korea, Russia End 2-Year Hiatus in Railway Trade
15. North Korea acted ‘provocatively’ to try and ‘disrupt’ South Korea-US military exercises
16. North Korea’s ballistic missile barrage signals a potentially dangerous escalation
1. Long Overdue Paradigm Shift: A Human Rights up Front Approach toward North Korea
Now is the time.
Conclusion:
Now is the time for a long overdue paradigm shift in addressing North Korea, an approach that places the human rights and human security of the North Korean people front and center. A "Human Rights up Front" approach toward North Korea would require: international access to North Korean political prison camps and other detention facilities; transparency and the ability to conduct unimpeded in-country fact-finding human rights and humanitarian missions; and providing humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable groups, in particular children, women, the elderly, and people in detention.
Long Overdue Paradigm Shift: A Human Rights up Front Approach toward North Korea
hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
By Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director
November 2, 2022
View of the Yeonggeumjeong Pavilion in Sokcho, on South Korea's east coast
Today, November 2, North Korea launched 25 missiles. A ballistic missile landed just 40 miles (60 km) east of South Korea’s port town of Sokcho. North Korea perpetrated this massive provocation barely four days after the Itaewon tragedy that took the lives of 156 young people from South Korea, the United States, Australia, Austria, China, France, Iran, Japan, Kazakhstan, Norway, Russia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Instead of condolences and messages of solidarity, North Korea chose to threaten South Korea’s peace and security with its largest missile salvo ever.
To procure the hard currency needed to develop its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, North Korea oppresses and exploits its own people at home and abroad. According to the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), North Korea has spent up to $1.6 billion developing nuclear weapons, including six nuclear tests, since the 1970s. Those funds would have sufficed to buy up to 2.05 million tons of rice or 4.1 million tons of corn, the equivalent of four years’ worth of food for the entire North Korean population. According to KIDA, North Korea has spent 3 to 5 million dollars on short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), 10 to 15 million dollars on medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), and 20 to 30 million dollars on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). North Korea spends about 2 percent of its $33.5 billion GDP on its missile launches.
For thirty years, negotiations with North Korea and North Korea policy have sacrificed human rights for the sake of addressing nuclear weapons, missiles, and other military and security issues. Both the North Korean nuclear and missile programs have thrived. Sidelining human rights to appease the North Korean regime is not the answer, but a fundamental flaw in North Korea policy.
Now is the time for a long overdue paradigm shift in addressing North Korea, an approach that places the human rights and human security of the North Korean people front and center. A "Human Rights up Front" approach toward North Korea would require: international access to North Korean political prison camps and other detention facilities; transparency and the ability to conduct unimpeded in-country fact-finding human rights and humanitarian missions; and providing humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable groups, in particular children, women, the elderly, and people in detention.
Categories: Human Rights, human security, North Korea, South Korea
hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
2. With Freedom, the People of North Korea Can Make the Miracle on the Taedong River
I
am a great supporter of a future "Miracle on the Taedong." The time is coming. Now is the time.
CHOSUN ILBO NOVEMBER 2, 2022
With Freedom, the People of North Korea Can Make the Miracle on the Taedong River
https://www.chosun.com/opinion/contribution/2022/11/02/EJXFZBO7HZB6ZPUQEPULJIQ65U/
By Suzanne Scholte, Seoul Peace Prize Laureate
The latest provocations by the Kim Jong Un regime are a stark reminder that a new approach is needed in dealing with this hostile, tyrannical regime. The answer can be found in the presentations held during the 19th annual North Korea Freedom Week, which wrapped up earlier this month.
Human rights organizations from South Korea, the U.S., and Japan participated in the NKFW, which took place between September 25th and October 1st. These defector leaders, who organized this year’s North Korea Freedom Week, risked their lives to escape the North. Namely, they had to choose between life and death, and they chose liberation from KJU, so they can achieve their freedom and human rights. How did these people flee North Korea.
We now see that all the measures that Moon took from tearing down the loudspeakers at the DMZ to banning the creative methods perfected to reach North Koreans by land, by sea and by air, were a complete failure. Moon’s appeasement of the Kim dictatorship has only led to more suffering and death for North Koreans and continued threats to South Korea and Japan. Kim’s ongoing missile launches and constant bragging about further nuclear weapons tests are proof of this failure. Moon breathed new life into the Kim dictatorship.
The anti-leafletting law that he pushed through the Assembly is unconstitutional and a violation of the Republic of Korea’s international treaty obligations. South Korea is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.” (ICCPR). Article 19 of the Covenant states: ‘Everyone shall have the right to freedom of expression; this right shall include freedom to seek, receive and impart information and ideas of all kinds, regardless of frontiers, either orally, in writing or in print, in the form of art, or through any other media of his choice.’
South Koreans need to remember that Kim Jong Un has never changed his ultimate objective: the subjugation of the South Korean people under the Kim dictatorship, the Mount Baekdu line. Do not be deceived that Kim will ever give up his nuclear weapons.
President Yoon Suk Yeol must place the human rights of the Korean people first in his heart and in his policies. The President of Korea must uphold the rights of every Korean wherever they are -- whether they are in a gulag in North Korea, a detention center in China, a refugee camp in Thailand, a Starbucks in Seoul, a church in Busan or on the KTX to Gwangju.
All of us must raise our voices even louder today for the human rights of the people of North Korea. We should be doing everything in our power to get information into North Korea by LAND, by AIR, and by SEA by utilizing the perfectly successful routes founded by North Korea defectors.
We must communicate to the people in power in Pyongyang that all that is desired for them is: to share with them the benefits of a free people, to give them a life of hope instead of despair.
The people in the DPRK wake up in the morning with only two choices in their lives: being slaves devoted to Kim Jong Un or death and their families’ deaths. We must communicate to the people of North Korea the truth: that the miracle on the Han that is in South Korea can be the miracle of the Taedong if North Koreans are simply given that chance and freed of the brutal slavery of Kim Jong Un.
North Koreans were starting to learn these truths because so much information was getting into North Korea! That is why so many began escaping – not just for food, but for freedom, for a better life, to follow their dreams.
Today, we are living in a time where the warring is intensifying between good and evil, between freedom and slavery, between liberal democracy and communism, between truth and lies, and it is reaching a tipping point. We must all choose: which side are we on?
------------
3. #NorthKorea: Missile provocations and arms for Russia: David Maxwell, FDD. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill
My latest interview on the John Batchelor Show along with Gordon Chang. https://audioboom.com/posts/8187728-northkorea-missile-provocations-and-arms-for-russia-david-maxwell-fdd-gordongchang-gatest
4. North Korea fires 3 more missiles a day after launching barrage of 23
My comments, among others, below.
North Korea fires 3 more missiles a day after launching barrage of 23
The moves are meant to warn Seoul and Washington and raise tensions, experts say.
By Eugene Whong for RFA
2022.11.02
rfa.org
UPDATED at 8:40 p.m. EDT on 11-02-2022
North Korea fired three more missiles on Thursday, a day after launching a barrage of 23, including one that crossed a disputed maritime border and landed near South Korean territory in moves that experts said were meant to ratchet up tensions on the peninsula.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday that North Korea had launched three missiles toward waters to the east of the Korean Peninsula -- one long-range missile followed by two apparent short-range missiles an hour later.
A day earlier, one of the 23 missiles was fired across the disputed Northern Limit Line splashed down more than 100 miles (160 km) away from the South’s eastern island of Ulleungdo. It was the first time a North Korean rocket landed south of the line since the 1950-53 Korean War, the South Korean military said.
Firing into waters south of the line is a clear ratcheting up of provocations, Harry Harris, former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, told RFA’s Korean Service.
“I suspect it is an attention-grabbing stunt, but it is dangerous and serves to increase tensions,” he said.
Harris said the launches underscored the naivete of hoping North Korea would return to the negotiating table, and the importance readiness by the South Korea-U.S. alliance to meet threats from the North.
In response to the missile fired Wednesday that crossed the disputed maritime border, South Korean warplanes fired three precision strike air-to-surface missiles of their own about 16 miles north of the line, the same distance that the North’s landed south of it.
"North Korea's missile launch, which marks the first time since the division of the peninsula that it has landed near our territorial waters south of the NLL, is very rare and intolerable," the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
Launching 23 was the most North Korea had fired in a single day, according to the South’s military. The North also fired more than 100 rounds of artillery into a military buffer zone, the military said.
"Our military's response reaffirms our resolve to sternly respond to any provocations (by North Korea) and shows that we are capable of accurately striking our enemy," the JCS said.
“It’s a warning”
The barrage was North Korea’s response to Seoul and Washington’s Vigilant Storm joint military exercises after a five-year hiatus, said Gary Samore, the former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction. The five-day round-the-clock joint air drills began Monday.
“It's a warning,” said Samore.
“It demonstrates that North Korea has the ability to launch multiple ballistic missiles at targets in South Korea and the region to deter the U.S. and the R.O.K. from attacking North Korea, even though [they] have no intent of attacking,” he said, using the abbreviation for South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea.
But drills like Vigilant Storm show the North that in the event of a North Korean attack, the U.S. and South Korea would have “complete domination of the airspace over the battlefield,” he said.
“This barrage from North Korea is not just about refining its missile arsenal,” Jean H. Lee, a veteran journalist who opened and once led the Associated Press’ Pyongyang bureau, said on Twitter.
“Pyongyang is also on a campaign to provoke anxiety in South Korea by raising tensions at a time when the country is in mourning. Could the intention be to fuel anger toward the current government?” she said.
Erasing a line?
Firing a missile south of the Northern Limit Line might be an attempt by Pyongyang to do away with it, Bruce Klingner of the Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank told RFA.
“They may be trying to push the NLL further south,” he said. “They dispute the NLL, which was drawn by U.N. Command back after the Korean War. So they may be again trying to raise tensions in order to cause Seoul to accept a further south line or a sort of jointly operated buffer zone.”
Klingner said that South Korea’s response was proper, and signaled that Seoul will no longer accept North Korean provocations, but he warned that by firing missiles so close to the border or flying planes near it could inadvertently lead to escalation or even a clash.
Though North Korea launched its most missiles ever in a single day on Wednesday, the barrage was “not very impressive,” said Bruce Bennett of the California-based RAND Corporation.
“It took the North 10 hours to launch 23 missiles; the last of the launches took 40 minutes to fire just 6 missiles,” said Bennett.
“If that is the best North Korea can do in terms of synchronizing missile launches, then the North Korean threat is not very intimidating,” he said.
Bennett said that in a serious attack, Pyongyang would need to launch “many dozens” of missiles within minutes of each other to avoid swift retaliation from the South that would destroy unfired missiles and launchers.
“Thus far, the North is well short of demonstrating that kind of capability,” he said.
But despite Pyongyang’s attempts to project strength through the missile launches, it may actually be a sign of desperation, David Maxwell of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told RFA.
“This may be a sign of desperation because [leader] Kim [Jong Un’s] political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies have failed to achieve Kim's desired effects. South Korea and the United States refuse to appease him,” said Maxwell.
He urged Washington and Seoul not to give in to Kim’s demands.
“Now is the time to increase pressure on Pyongyang with a comprehensive information and influence campaign to force three choices on Kim: change his behavior, have the elite and military leadership force a change, or the Korean people will cause change,” Maxwell said.
More provocations from North Korea are likely to follow in the coming days, Ellen Kim, deputy director of the Korea Chair at the Washington-based Center for Stratigic and International Studies, said in a statement.
"CSIS data shows that North Korea responds belligerently to U.S.-ROK military exercises when there is no ongoing diplomacy taking place among the parties concerned," she said.
Additionally, with the Nov. 8 U.S. midterm elections less than a week away, an intercontinental ballisitic missile test or even a nuclear test is likely, she said.
With the U.S. and South Korea working to enhance deterrence through their joint exercises, North Korean missile tests, artillery drills and warplane exercises could become a "new normal," said Kim.
"This is certainly an ominous sign and will be discussed between the U.S. secretary of defense and South Korean defense minister when they meet at the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) this Thursday in Washington," she said.
People watch a TV report on North Korea firing missiles off its east coast, in Seoul, South Korea, Nov. 2, 2022. Credit: Reuters
The South Korean government strongly condemned Wednesday’s launches, which are violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions and military agreements made between the two Koreas at summits in recent years, Kim Seong-han, the presidential office’s national security advisor, told reporters.
“I think it is especially deplorable that [this provocation] was carried out during a national period of mourning in South Korea,” he said, referring to the tragic loss of more than 150 lives over the weekend caused by overcrowding during Halloween celebrations in Seoul’s Itaewon neighborhood.
According to data from the Netherlands-based BNO News, the barrage represented 11 percent of the total number of missiles launched by North Korea since 1953.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a news release that Foreign Affairs Minister Jin Park and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced North Korea’s launches during a phone call.
“The missile launches highlight the DPRK’s reckless behavior and the destabilizing impact of its unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs,” the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement.
it said, adding that the U.S.’ commitments to defending South Korea and Japan are “ironclad.”
The launch broke “multiple Security Council resolutions,” so the UN will be “putting pressure” on China and Russia to improve and enhance such sanctions, Linda Thomas Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, told CNN. She declined to say whether US President Joe Biden would raise the issue with China’s President Xi at this month’s G20 summit, but added it was “on the President’s mind.”
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters Wednesday that he intended to convene a National Security Council as soon as possible, given the heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters that Beijing was closely following the situation.
“It is in the common interest of the region to maintain peace and stability in the peninsula, and resolve each other's concerns in a balanced manner through dialogue and consultation,” he said, adding that China hopes all concerned parties would work toward a “political settlement” and prevent a “spiral of escalation of the situation.”
But a peaceful settlement cannot be achievable without sweeping change, Maxwell said.
“The West must recognize the bottom line: The only way we will see an end to North Korea’s nuclear program and military threats, as well as the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the Kim family regime, is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea.”
RFA Korean’s Jamin Anderson and Hye Jun Seo contributed to this report.
UPDATE: Updates with North Korean launching 3 more missiles on Thursday.
rfa.org
5. N. Korea fires suspected ICBM toward East Sea: S. Korean military
Kim is getting more desperate. Is he escalating in preparation for a nuclear test?
(2nd LD) N. Korea fires suspected ICBM toward East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · November 3, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more throughout with latest launch; CHANGES headline)
SEOUL, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired an apparent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and two suspected short-range ones toward the East Sea on Thursday, South Korea's military said.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected what is presumed to be an ICBM launch from the Suan area in Pyongyang at around 7:40 a.m. and the firing of two apparent short-range ballistic missiles from Kaechon in South Pyongan Province from around 8:39 a.m.
The provocations came a day after the North shot more than two dozen missiles, including one that flew across its de facto maritime border with South Korea for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
The North is seen as demonstrating its firepower in protest against this week's combined air drills of South Korea and the United States.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · November 3, 2022
6. Blinken reaffirms U.S. commitment to defense of S. Korea in talk with S. Korean counterpart
And he is also reaffirming the US commitment to ensuring Kim Jong Un's strategies fail.
Blinken reaffirms U.S. commitment to defense of S. Korea in talk with S. Korean counterpart | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 3, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned North Korea's latest missile provocation, urging the international community to hold the country accountable, a state department spokesperson said Wednesday.
The condemnation came in a call with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin, shortly after North Korea launched a barrage of missiles in its latest military provocation, according to department press secretary Ned Price.
"The two ministers jointly condemned and expressed deep concern about the DPRK's escalatory launches, including one that, as I mentioned before, recklessly and dangerously landed near the ROK coastline," Price told a daily press briefing, referring to North and South Korea by their official names, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea, respectively.
"The secretary took advantage of that conversation to reaffirm for his counterpart, Foreign Minister Park, the ironclad commitment to the ROK's security and safety, and he stressed the need for the international community to unite in holding the DPRK accountable for its continued provocations," he added.
North Korea fired more than 20 missiles and 100 artillery shells on Wednesday (Seoul time), with one of its missiles landing in waters south of the de facto inter-Korean maritime border, known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL).
It marked the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War that North Korea fired a missile south of the NLL.
"We condemn the DPRK's ballistic missile launches and it's reckless decision to fire a missile below the de facto maritime boundary," Price said.
He said the top U.S. diplomat will have an opportunity to engage with his South Korean counterpart in person when he accompanies President Joe Biden on his trip to Indonesia for the Group of 20 summit later this month.
Price also highlighted the possibility of additional provocations from North Korea, noting the country appears to be in what he called a "period of provocation."
"This is a period that has gone on for a number of months now," he said. "It remains the case that we are concerned about potential for further provocations, including and up to a seventh nuclear test."
"We have spoken publicly of this for some time now, primarily to make clear to the DPRK that should it go forward with seventh nuclear test, there would be additional costs and consequences," he added.
U.S. officials, including Price, have said Pyongyang may be prepared to conduct a nuclear test "at any time."
North Korea conducted its sixth and last nuclear test in September 2017.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 3, 2022
7. North Korea ICBM may have failed in flight, officials say; allies extend major drills
I think we forget the main reason for north Korea's missile test. They must test to advance their programs. While we always intercept every test as a message for us, sometime the simplest reason may be that it is necessary to advance a capability to the next level (test, training, fielding for warfighting)
That said, I do think the tests this year are intended to support Kim's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy but we must always remember that he is developing warfighting capabilities to ...well.... fight a war.
North Korea ICBM may have failed in flight, officials say; allies extend major drills
Summary
- Residents in Japan told to shelter after launch
- S.Korea, U.S. to extend Vigilant Storm exercises
- N.Korea also fired two short-range missiles
- Pyongyang has criticised allied drills
Reuters · by Kantaro Komiya
TOKYO/SEOUL, Nov 3 (Reuters) - North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles on Thursday, including a possible intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that triggered an alert for residents in parts of central and northern Japan to seek shelter.
Despite an initial government warning that a missile had overflown Japan, Tokyo later said that was incorrect.
Officials in South Korea and Japan said the missile may have been an ICBM, which are North Korea's longest-range weapons, and are designed to carry a nuclear warhead to the other side of the planet.
North Korea also launched at least two short-range missiles.
The launches came a day after North Korea fired at least 23 missiles, the most in a single day, including one that landed off South Korea's coast for the first time.
South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman strongly condemned North Korea's series of missile launches as "deplorable, immoral" during a phone call on Thursday, Seoul's foreign ministry said.
After the first launch on Thursday, residents of Miyagi, Yamagata and Niigata prefectures in Japan were warned to seek shelter indoors, according to the J-Alert Emergency Broadcasting System.
Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada later said the government had lost track of that missile over the Sea of Japan, prompting it to correct its earlier announcement that it had flown over Japan.
"We detected a launch that showed the potential to fly over Japan and therefore triggered the J Alert, but after checking the flight we confirmed that it had not passed over Japan," Hamada told reporters.
The first missile flew to an altitude of about 2,000 kilometres and a range of 750 kilometres, he said. Such a flight pattern is called a "lofted trajectory", in which a missile is fired high into space to avoid flying over neighbouring countries.
In brief comments to reporters a few minutes later, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, "North Korea's repeated missile launches are an outrage and absolutely cannot be forgiven."
About half an hour after the launch was first reported, Japan's Coast Guard said the missile had fallen.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the long-range missile was launched from near the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.
About an hour after the first launch, South Korea's military and the Japanese coast guard reported a second and third launch from North Korea. South Korea said both of those were short-range missiles fired from Kaechon, north of Pyongyang.
After North Korea's launches on Wednesday, including one missile that landed less than 60 km (40 miles) off South Korea's coast, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol described the flights as "territorial encroachment" and Washington denounced them as "reckless".
South Korea issued rare air raid warnings and launched its own missiles in response after Wednesday's barrage.
The launches came after Pyongyang demanded the United States and South Korea stop large-scale military exercises, saying such "military rashness and provocation can be no longer tolerated".
It has said before that a recent flurry of missile launches and other military activities were in protest of those drills.
The allies have been conducting one of the largest air exercises ever, with hundreds of South Korean and U.S. warplanes, including F-35 fighters, staging around-the-clock simulated missions.
Seoul and Washington say the drills are defensive, and are needed to counter the North's threats.
On Oct. 4, North Korea launched a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years, prompted a warning for residents there to take cover. It was the farthest North Korea had ever fired a missile.
Retired Vice Admiral and former Japan Maritime Self Defense Force fleet commander Yoji Koda said that the loss of radar tracking on the projectile on Thursday suggests it may have been a failed launch.
"Although the warhead came down in the Sea of Japan, debris, which would have been travelling at high speed, may still have passed over Japan," he said.
North Korea has had several failed ICBM tests this year, according to South Korean and U.S. officials.
Japan and South Korea have a history of mischaracterizing North Korean missile events, said Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Neither country has the highly reliable and desirable space-based infrared sensors available to the United States that allow for prompt detection of missile stages as they ignite," he said.
Reporting by Kantoro Komiya, Tim Kelly, Chang-Ran Kim and David Dolan in Tokyo, and Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith in Seoul; Writing by Josh Smith; Editing by Chris Reese, Lincoln Feast and Gerry Doyle
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reuters · by Kantaro Komiya
8. N. Korea's Hwasong-17 ICBM launch seems to have ended in failure: source
If the Hwasong 17 failed it may render a nuclear test less effective since it may have apparent ICBM delivery problems. If this is accurate reporting.
(6th LD) N. Korea's Hwasong-17 ICBM launch seems to have ended in failure: source | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · November 3, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with extension of allies' drills, other details; MODIFIES headline; CHANGES photo)
By Kim Soo-yeon and Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), believed to be a Hwasong-17, apparently ended in failure Thursday, a defense source here said, as the Kim Jong-un regime has intensified its military threats, especially amid large-scale joint air drills of South Korea and the United States.
The missile was launched from the Sunan area in Pyongyang at around 7:40 a.m. and flew about 760 kilometers at an apogee of around 1,920 km at a top speed of Mach 15, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
Following the second stage separation, however, the ICBM seems to have failed in normal flight, the source said later on background, adding it is presumed to be a Hwasong-17 type.
It marked the North's seventh firing of an ICBM this year and the first since late May.
The JCS also said it detected the firing of two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from Kaechon in South Pyongan Province from around 8:39 a.m.
They traveled some 330 km at a maximum altitude of around 70 km at a top speed of Mach 5, it said.
The North is viewed as having again sought to demonstrate its military might in protest against the five-day massive air exercise of the allies that kicked off Monday.
But Pyongyang's continued major provocations have led the allies to extend the Vigilant Storm exercise.
The South's Air Force made the announcement on the decision, hours after the North's ICBM firing, without immediately revealing when the training is to finish. It said the allies are in consultations on details.
Meanwhile, JCS Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum and Gen. Paul LaCamera, who leads the U.S. Forces Korea, had virtual consultations and reaffirmed a commitment to a stronger combined defense posture against "any North Korean threats and provocations."
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement as well: "The United States condemns these actions and calls on the DPRK to refrain from any further unlawful and destabilizing acts ... The U.S. commitments to the defense of the ROK and Japan remain ironclad."
DPRK is the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and ROK stands for the South's official name, the Republic of Korea.
The North's provocations came a day after it shot more than two dozen missiles, the biggest-ever barrage in a single day. One of them flew southward past the de facto maritime inter-Korean border for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
South Korea and the U.S. have mobilized more than 240 aircraft, which include stealth fighter jets, for the Vigilant Storm practice staged over Korea.
Pyongyang has long denounced joint military drills between Seoul and Washington as a rehearsal for invasion. The allies stress the exercises are defensive in nature.
Pak Jong-chon, secretary of the Central Committee of the North's ruling Workers' Party, warned Wednesday that Seoul and Washington will "pay the most horrible price in history" if they decide to attack the North.
North Korea's foreign ministry earlier warned of "more powerful follow-up measures" against what it called Washington's "ceaseless and reckless" military provocations.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · November 3, 2022
9. North Korea covertly supplying Russia with artillery, U.S. says
Not a surprise at all. Some irony here. Russia will be buying Soviet era obsolete weapons built by north Korea.
North Korea covertly supplying Russia with artillery, U.S. says
The White House accused Pyongyang of moving arms through the Middle East and Africa
By Karoun Demirjian, Karen DeYoung and Ellen Nakashima
Updated November 2, 2022 at 8:09 p.m. EDT|Published November 2, 2022 at 1:28 p.m. EDT
The Washington Post · by Karoun Demirjian · November 2, 2022
The North Korean government is covertly funneling artillery shells to aid Russia in its war in Ukraine using countries in the Middle East and North Africa to mask the weapons’ movement, the White House said Wednesday, although it was not yet clear whether those shipments were received.
The shipments include “thousands” of shells, John Kirby, the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, told reporters. He characterized the number as “significant” but not enough to alter the war’s trajectory “in any appreciable way.”
Kirby would not disclose how the North Koreans might be shipping the artillery shells or which countries are believed to be transfer points, saying only, “We do have a sense of where they’re going” and that the United States would “continue to look at what our options are.”
The allegation comes several weeks after the Biden administration warned that Moscow was seeking to purchase such materiel, prompting a vehement denial from Pyongyang. That Russian President Vladimir Putin is turning to North Korea to augment his military’s arsenal was further indication that Russia’s position in Ukraine was weakening, Kirby said, crediting “the efficacy of international sanctions” that have hobbled Russia’s defense industrial base.
“Back in September, we had indications that Russia was willing to buy,” he said. “Now we have indications that Russia has purchased — and they’re on the move.”
In the Middle East, Russia has close relations with Syria, where it has been President Bashar al-Assad’s primary military patron in an 11-year civil war that has become a standoff with rebel and extremist groups largely backed into a corner in the northwestern part of the country. Russia has control, under a bilateral agreement, of the naval base at Tartus, on the Mediterranean coast, as well as Hmeimim air base. Moscow has upgraded both facilities in recent years.
Assad also maintains relations with North Korea, which has been accused of providing the Syrian military with ballistic missiles and chemical weapons components in defiance of U.N. sanctions. In 2019, the two countries signed an economic cooperation agreement.
In North Africa, Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries are reportedly present at bases and ports controlled by the Libyan National Army of rebel warlord Khalifa Hifter. Researchers say the group is present in more than a dozen nations on the continent.
The Biden administration has accused Iran also of selling arms, including kamikaze attack drones, to Russia. The unmanned aircraft have been used in massive attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in recent weeks. U.S. officials have warned of possible future transfers of missiles. Iran, the administration has said, has sent its own technicians to Crimea, the illegally annexed Ukrainian peninsula in the Black Sea, to train Russian operatives on the drone systems and to repair them.
The purchases from North Korea and Iran, both under heavy international sanctions, are “a sign of Russia’s own article shortages and needs” in conducting its war in Ukraine, Kirby said, adding that U.S. and international “export controls have had an effect on Mr. Putin’s industrial base, forcing him to go outside.”
Ellen Nakashima contributed to this report.
The Washington Post · by Karoun Demirjian · November 2, 2022
10. Analysis | What Nukes Does North Korea Have and Could They Hit the US?
Graphic at the link that shows an annual comparison of recent missile launches: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/what-nukes-does-north-korea-have-and-could-they-hit-the-us/2022/11/03/d69177aa-5b35-11ed-bc40-b5a130f95ee7_story.html
Analysis | What Nukes Does North Korea Have and Could They Hit the US?
The Washington Post · by Jon Herskovitz | Bloomberg · November 3, 2022
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown no interest in resuming talks with the US after agreeing in 2018 to work toward “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” Instead, he has been busy making his nuclear-equipped arsenal bigger, deadlier and better able to strike America and its allies in Asia. Kim has fired off a record number of missiles this year to demonstrate his weapons advances and may soon conduct his first atomic bomb test in five years.
1. What is Kim working on?
An array of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to hit the US allies of South Korea and Japan, longer-range rockets that could strike American bases in Guam, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles designed to deliver an atomic strike to New York or Washington. Kim has also modernized his missile arsenal, steering away from the Soviet-era Scud variants that had been a staple to produce rockets that rely heavily on domestic technology and can be manufactured despite sanctions. He’s also seeking to improve the technology to miniaturize warheads for strikes in the region and increase the power of warheads for an ICBM.
• Kim has rolled out new solid-fuel ballistic missiles that are easier to move, hide and fire than many liquid-fuel versions. He’s launched more than 80 since May 2019, including nuclear-capable, super-fast KN-23 missiles that can strike all of South Korea -- and US forces stationed there -- within a matter of minutes. He has also launched KN-25 short-range missiles designed to be fired in rapid succession from a single launcher to overwhelm interceptors.
• It tested hypersonic missiles in September 2021 and again in January 2022, which are designed to deploy a high-speed glide vehicle that can carry a warhead and maneuver past interceptors.
• In October 2022, it fired its first missile over Japan in about five years, launching what appeared to be a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range rocket. It splashed into the Western Pacific after reaching an altitude of 970 kilometers -- more than twice as high as the International Space Station.
• The country also showed off last year, and again in January, what it said was a new delivery system to fire missiles off a train, making them harder for prying eyes to track.
2. Could Kim really hit the US?
He appears to have acquired that capability after successfully testing an intercontinental ballistic missile in November 2017, the Hwasong-15. A newer, larger ICBM, the Hwasong-17, was displayed at a military parade in October 2020 to mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party. It may have exploded shortly after launch in a failed test in mid-March 2022. Eight days after that failure, North Korea fired off an ICBM that South Korea believes was the Hwasong-15. Weapons experts say the likely purpose of the Hwasong-17 is to deliver a multiple nuclear warhead payload that could overwhelm US defenses, or a single, high-yield weapon. North Korea is also said to be developing an ICBM that uses solid-fuel technology, potentially giving the US less warning of an imminent launch. Still, it’s unclear whether the country’s ICBMs could beat antimissile systems and are refined enough to strike their intended targets, as well as whether the warheads could survive reentry into the atmosphere.
3. How many nuclear devices does North Korea have?
Experts estimate that North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the RAND Corp. and Asan Institute, put the number as high as 116. The country has conducted six atomic tests, with Kim responsible for the last four. The US, Japan and South Korea have all said Pyongyang could soon conduct another test. The first detonation in 2006 measured less than one kiloton, leaving experts wondering whether it had been a partial failure. (A kiloton is equal to the force of 1,000 metric tons [1,102 tons] of TNT). In the most recent test, in September 2017, the estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotons dwarfed the 15 to 20 kiloton US bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. North Korea probably has developed miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into its ballistic missile warheads, according to the assessment of “several” countries cited in a 2020 United Nations report.
4. Where does Kim’s military get its fissile material?
It has been self-sufficient for decades in fissile material, the main ingredient to create a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. The program today relies largely on enriched uranium and, according to weapons experts, produces enough annually for about six bombs. In addition, North Korea appeared in mid-2021 to have resumed plutonium-producing operations -- another means of creating fissile material -- at a nuclear reactor in its antiquated Yongbyon complex.
5. What other surprises might be out there?
North Korea may be working on ICBMs that carry multiple warheads and in-flight countermeasures to throw interceptors off the trail, according to Datayo, an open-source weapons research site. Kim has pushed to develop his fleet of submarines and is looking to deploy a new vessel soon that experts say could fire missiles.
6. How can the country afford all this?
The money needed is not huge in global terms. North Korea spends about $7 billion to $11 billion a year -- around 20-30% of its economy -- on its military, according to a US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment. That’s roughly equivalent to two days’ US military spending. Although international sanctions have hit the economy hard, North Korea evades some through methods such as clandestine transfers at sea of banned goods such as oil, and it generates cash by means that include ransomware attacks. Kim’s decade-old regime has already taken in as much as $2.3 billion through cybercrimes and is geared to rake in even more, US and United Nations investigators have said.
7. Wasn’t Trump going to fix this?
Former President Donald Trump’s talks with Kim, beginning with Singapore in June 2018, turned the duo from insult-throwing enemies into dialogue partners. But their three meetings didn’t produce any noticeable change, and North Korea has become what three decades of diplomacy had tried to prevent -- a state capable of developing, projecting and detonating atomic bombs. Kim has shown no interest in the President Joe Biden’s call for him to return to nuclear talks.
--With assistance from Paul Geitner.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
The Washington Post · by Jon Herskovitz | Bloomberg · November 3, 2022
11. S. Korea considering additional unilateral N.K. sanctions over ICBM launch: ministry
Employ all instruments of national power. But sanctions need effective enforcement. With an announcement of sanctions I recommend they include a description of and commitment to enforcement.
(LEAD) S. Korea considering additional unilateral N.K. sanctions over ICBM launch: ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · November 3, 2022
(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead; UPDATES throughout; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) -- South Korea is considering imposing additional unilateral sanctions against North Korea in response to its evolving missile and nuclear threats highlighted by its latest intercontinental ballistic missile launch (ICBM), according to Seoul's foreign ministry Thursday.
North Korea test-fired an ICBM earlier in the day, marking its seventh ICBM launch this year and first since May. Pyongyang fired more than 20 short-range missiles the day before, one of which landed in waters south of the de facto maritime border with South Korea, known as the Northern Limit Line.
"As North Korea's provocations continue, we are considering imposing additional unilateral sanctions," ministry spokesperson Lim Soo-suk said during a press briefing. Last month, Seoul placed 15 North Korean individuals and 16 institutions on its blacklist in its first unilateral sanctions against Pyongyang in nearly five years.
Lim said South Korea was in "close consultations" with the United States, Japan and other allies on ways to enhance the effectiveness of its unilateral sanctions.
Earlier in the day, Seoul's First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong and his American counterpart, Wendy Sherman, condemned the North's latest provocations through phone consultations, describing the North's move as posing a "serious threat to the peace and stability" of the peninsula and the international community, according to the ministry.
They agreed on the need for the allies to maintain a strong combined defense posture as well as close cooperation on responses to the North's additional provocations, including those through the U.N. Security Council, amid speculation that it may soon carry out a nuclear test.
odissy@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · November 3, 2022
12. U.S. condemns N. Korea's ICBM launch, urges int'l community to fully implement U.N. sanctions
Again, three words: enforcement, enforcement, enforcement. We need secondary sanctions on financial institutions that are complicit in north Korean sanctions evasion, e.g, China.
U.S. condemns N. Korea's ICBM launch, urges int'l community to fully implement U.N. sanctions | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 3, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) -- The United States condemned North Korea's firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday, calling it a threat to global peace and stability.
Department of State spokesperson Ned Price also called on all countries to fully implement U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea.
"The United States condemns the DPRK's intercontinental ballistic missile launch," the spokesperson said in a released statement, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"This launch is a clear violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions and demonstrates the threat the DPRK's unlawful weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs pose to its neighbors, the region, international peace and security, and the global non-proliferation regime," he added.
The rare statement from the State Department spokesperson came after North Korea test-fired an ICBM early Thursday (Seoul time), marking its seventh ICBM launch this year and first since May.
North Korea fired more than 20 short-range missiles the day before, one of which landed in waters south of the de facto maritime border with South Korea, known as the Northern Limit Line.
"This action underscores the need for all countries to fully implement DPRK related U.N. Security Council resolutions, which are intended to prohibit the DPRK from acquiring the technologies and materials needed to carry out these destabilizing tests," Price said.
The U.S. official also called on Pyongyang to engage in dialogue.
"Together, with the international community, we call on the DPRK to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue. Our commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad," he said.
The latest missile provocations came after North Korea's foreign ministry threatened to take "more powerful" steps against ongoing joint military exercises of South Korea and the U.S., renewing its decadeslong accusation that the joint military drills are a rehearsal for their potential invasion of the North.
Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder dismissed the claim, saying the military drills are purely defensive in nature and that they had been long planned.
Price earlier said the North may be expected to continue making provocations, including a nuclear test, in the foreseeable future, saying the country appears to be in a "period of provocation."
North Korea conducted its sixth and last nuclear test in September 2017.
Officials in Seoul have said Pyongyang may have completed all preparations for a nuclear test, and that it could take place as early as before the U.S. midterm elections, slated to be held next Tuesday.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 3, 2022
13. Is North Korea aligning itself with Putin against Ukraine?
Kim has provided diplomatic support over the past months. I do not think there is any doubt that Kim is supporting Putin in Putin's War.
Is North Korea aligning itself with Putin against Ukraine?
Newsweek · by Zoe Strozewski · November 2, 2022
The U.S. is reportedly alleging that North Korea is covertly supplying Russia with artillery shells to use against Ukraine in its ongoing war, countering the East Asian country's previous denial of doing so.
CNN, citing newly declassified intelligence, reported Wednesday that North Korea was attempting to hide its alleged shipments to Russia by making it look as though they are actually going to nations in the Middle East or North Africa.
Newsweek was not able to independently confirm the report and reached out to the Kremlin and Permanent Mission of the Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the United Nations for verification and comment.
In early September, The New York Times and other outlets reported that Russia was buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, and was expected to make additional purchases in the future. Experts said at the time that the alleged purchases, if true, could point to a depletion of Russia's supplies in the war that began when Ukraine was invaded on February 24.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a press conference at the Rus Sanatorium on October 31,2022, in Sochi, Russia. The U.S. is reportedly alleging that North Korea is covertly supplying Russia with artillery shells to use against Ukraine, countering the East Asian country’s previous denial of doing so. Contributor/Getty Images
In a statement issued later that month, an official described as the "vice director general of the General Bureau of Equipment of the Ministry of National Defense" for the DPRK (North Korea's official title) denied the reports.
"We take this opportunity to make clear one thing," the official said. "We have never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia before and we will not plan to export them. It is not sure from where the rumor originated which the U.S. is spreading, but it is aimed at tarnishing the DPRK's image."
In light of the new reports that North Korea allegedly provided Russia with artillery shells, David Welch, a university research chair and professor of political science at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, told Newsweek that there was "no question" North Korea was siding with Russia in the war.
"It's one of just a few countries that voted against the [United Nations General Assembly] resolution to condemn the invasion in the first place," he said. "And it's one of the few countries that voted against condemning Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory.
North Korea is "very firmly" in Russia's camp, Welch added.
When the U.N. General Assembly voted to adopt a resolution in early March condemning Russia's invasion and calling for the immediate withdrawal of troops, only Syria, Belarus, Eritrea and Russia joined North Korea in voting against it. North Korea, Belarus, Nicaragua, Russia and Syria voted against another resolution last month calling on countries to not recognize Russia's declared annexation of four regions of Ukraine, a move global leaders have decried as illegitimate and illegal.
Natalia Slavney, a research associate at the Stimson Center think tank and assistant editor for the 38 North site that provides North Korea analysis, told Newsweek that North Korea "has been clear about supporting Russia throughout 2022."
Like Welch, Slavney noted that North Korea was one of the countries to vote against the resolution in March and pointed to pledges of mutual support and deepening relations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un. Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, North Korea blamed the outbreak of conflict on the "hegemonic policy" and "high-handedness" of the U.S. and the West, Reuters reported.
"Russia and North Korea have a long-standing history of economic cooperation as well," Slavney said.
She added that railway trade between the two countries has reportedly started again recently, so "sending weapons and related supplies would make sense, given the context."
The Russian news agency Interfax reported Wednesday that rail trade between Russia and North Korea had resumed following a two-year hiatus due to COVID-19.
Newsweek · by Zoe Strozewski · November 2, 2022
14. North Korea, Russia End 2-Year Hiatus in Railway Trade
This would seem to be the best way to ship artillery ammunition from north Korea to Putin's War in Ukraine. Why does our intel assess that the artillery ammo will be shipped through "cut-outs"" in the Middle East and North Africa? Maybe they want us to look that way and overlook the simplest way to ship. Is that a deception operation? (north Kore is masterful at denial and deception - and all warfare is based on deception).
North Korea, Russia End 2-Year Hiatus in Railway Trade - The Moscow Times
The Moscow Times · by The Moscow Times · November 2, 2022
North Korea and Russia have resumed cross-border railway trade, ending a two-year hiatus caused by Covid-19 border restrictions, media reported Wednesday.
Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that the first freight train carrying 30 thoroughbred horses has departed for the country's only border crossing with North Korea, Khasan-Tumangang.
Russian federal customs service data viewed by The Moscow Times said North Korea had imported 138 horses at a cost of $584,302 between 2010 and 2019.
Twelve Russian horses, which have great symbolic power in North Korean mythology and political culture, and ponies were delivered to North Korea in 2019 alone.
Russia’s Far Eastern Railway told Interfax that the next rail shipment to North Korea is expected to deliver medical goods. It did not specify the date of future supplies.
North Korea was one of the first countries to seal its borders in January 2020 despite not officially reporting any Covid-19 infections for more than two years.
Russia continued to deliver food and medicine to the insular state before bilateral trade plummeted to near-zero in October 2021.
Russian customs officials last week blamed UN sanctions on North Korea, one of the world’s poorest countries, for the “complete stop” in Moscow's bilateral trade with Pyongyang.
South Korean media focusing on the North reported last month that Pyongyang had launched preparations to open new trade offices across Russia to expand wheat flour and energy imports.
Previous reporting by the Seoul-based Daily NK suggested that North Korea had imported wheat from Russia in August and gas in October in return for support for the Ukraine invasion.
North Korea was one of the five countries that voted against a UN resolution condemning Moscow for its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Pyongyang in July became the third country to recognize Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states, following President Vladimir Putin's recognition of the separatist-controlled breakaway states.
Putin annexed those regions in late September, along with two other partially occupied Ukrainian territories, in a move widely condemned by Ukraine’s Western allies.
North Korea was also reported to have expressed readiness to send workers to Donetsk and Luhansk to aid in their reconstruction from the war.
The Moscow Times · by The Moscow Times · November 2, 2022
15. North Korea acted ‘provocatively’ to try and ‘disrupt’ South Korea-US military exercises
Video at the link: https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/north-korea-acted-provocatively-to-try-and-disrupt-south-koreaus-military-exercises/video/35f5a53dbbdab5747623d669e77a6d15
But I think this is fundamentally wrong. The regime is not trying disrupt military exercises. This "thesis" leads pundits to think all we have to do is halt exercises and the north will halt provocations. Nothing could be more wrong. It uses military exercises as an excuse. But the regime's intent is to drive a wedge inthe alliance and also to weaken alliance readiness. and ultimately to drive US forces off the peninsula if they cannot train. We cannot allow ourselves to be duped into thinking that Kim just wants "security guarantees" by ending exercises.
North Korea acted ‘provocatively’ to try and ‘disrupt’ South Korea-US military exercises
skynews.com.au · by 12 hours ago · November 2, 2022
Now Playing
North Korea acted ‘provocatively’ to try and ‘disrupt’ South Korea-US military exercises
ASPI Senior Analyst Dr Malcolm Davis says North Korea’s missile launches are generating concern.
Dr Davis’s remarks come after North and South Korea escalated military tensions as both countries fired missiles into waters near each other’s coasts.
“I think what it is is the North Koreans acting provocatively to try and disrupt and interfere with South Korean-US exercises,” Dr Davis told Sky News Australia.
“All this is leading up to the potential for the North Koreans to do a nuclear weapons test underground.”
Read More
skynews.com.au · by 12 hours ago · November 2, 2022
16. North Korea’s ballistic missile barrage signals a potentially dangerous escalation
Let's all calm down. We must not fear north Korea. Let's not play into Kim's hands. We must continue to demonstrate the far superior ROK/US alliance military capabilities. We must send te message that we can stop any attack on the ROK and decisively defeat the nKPA and the Kim Jong Un would not survive such an attack.
North Korea’s ballistic missile barrage signals a potentially dangerous escalation
North Korea fired a ballistic missile into South Korean waters for the first time since World War II.
BY JEFF SCHOGOL | PUBLISHED NOV 2, 2022 5:14 PM
taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · November 2, 2022
North Korea has fired a ballistic missile into South Korean waters for the first time since the peninsula was divided following World War II, increasing the chances of a miscalculation on either side of the 38th Parallel that could lead to a new Korean War.
While it is possible that the missile may have flown off course, it is more likely that the communist nation was warning South Korea not to challenge North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his regime, said Ian Williams, an expert on missile defense with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C.
“The political message here I think is: By crossing that maritime border, they are definitely sending a signal of who this is for,” said Williams, who noted that unlike past tests, none of the missiles that North Korea fired on Wednesday were aimed in the direction of Japan.
North Korea reportedly fired a total of 23 missiles on Wednesday. The fact North Korea fired so many missiles indicates that it also wanted to demonstrate to both South Korea and the United States that its long-range missiles can cause a lot of damage very quickly, Williams told Task & Purpose.
“If you did have a war on the Korean peninsula, they have a lot of firepower that they can put down there, and then you have the ICBMs [Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles]and IRBMs [Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles] to – hopefully, from their perspective – deter the United States from entering the conflict – and if they did, to be able to put enough firepower down to at least delay the entry of large amounts of U.S. forces into the theater,” Williams said.
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Williams noted that North Korean missile exercises such as these come in cycles. During the 1990s, the North Koreans would use such exercises to gain concessions from the West. Now, it appears they have more of a deterrent value by signaling to the United States and South Korea, “Don’t try to take down the Kim regime because you’ll suffer some bad things,” he said.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has issued a statement condemning the North Korean missile launches and saying that officials from the command are “consulting closely with our allies and partners.”
“While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies, the missile launches highlight the DPRK’s [the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s] reckless behavior and the destabilizing impact of its unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs,” the statement says. “The U.S. commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad.”
Army Lt. Col. Martin Meiners, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. military remains “well-postured” to deal with the security threat posed by North Korea.
North Korea’s most recent missile exercises came just days after U.S. and South Korean troops launched their largest joint military exercises on the Korean peninsula in five years. Exercise Vigilant Storm involves about 240 military aircraft and thousands of U.S. and South Korean service members.
Former President Donald Trump canceled large-scale exercises between the two militaries as part of his failed efforts to entice the North Korean regime to abandon its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
Although it is not certain whether North Korea intended to fire a missile across the maritime boundary, South Korean media are portraying the incident as a major escalation, said Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher with the RAND Corporation.
That is why South Korean fighter aircraft have already launched three missiles into North Korean waters in retaliation, Bennett told Task & Purpose.
“The South was basically trying to tell the North: You can’t get away with doing this; if you do it, we are going to respond in a like manner,” Bennett said. “Having done that, this is an escalation, potentially, by both sides.”
Currently, the situation has not become significantly more dangerous for the roughly 28,500 U.S. troops serving on the Korean peninsula because no one on either side has been hurt and all the missiles fired so far have landed in the ocean, Bennett said.
“If this was purposeful by Kim, he was experimenting to see what he could get away with,” Bennett said. “The South Korean response was: Not going to get away with this. If it was a purposeful action by him, the interesting question will be: So, what does he do next? Does he just let it drop or does he then choose to escalate himself and we see then some kind of pattern of escalation that develops.”
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taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · November 2, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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