Quotes of the Day:
"There are always too many Democratic congressmen, too many Republican congressmen, and never enough U.S. congressmen."
- Anonymous
"When we vote, we take back our power to choose, to speak up, and to stand with those who support us and each other."
- Loung Ung
"Political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world's ills and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all."
- John W. Gardner, No Easy Victories
1. North Korea's hypersonic missile claims are credible, exclusive analysis shows
2. U.N. rapporteur discusses N.K. human rights issue in meetings with S. Korean officials
3. U.S., S. Korea mulling ways to engage with N. Korea: Amb. Lee
4. For trilateral cooperation (ROK, Japan, US)
5. N. Korean leader attends national meeting to celebrate late father's 80th birthday
6. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Minus 30 degrees Celsius! People live with neighbours without enough money for heating, and some lose weight by reducing food costs... Unusual coal rationing for workers.
7. N. Korea touts ties with China in celebration of late leader's birthday
8. N.Korea Reactivates Uranium Enrichment Plant
9. North Korea marks phase two of new homes project, phase one still incomplete
10. The People at Camp 14: Those Who Remain Silent Forever
11. Who will rule Seoul next?
12. Korea stands ready to cooperate with allies over Ukraine crisis
13. Political polarization hinders talks with North Korea
1. North Korea's hypersonic missile claims are credible, exclusive analysis shows
Please show me the indicators and analysis that the Kim family regime is NOT trying to develop a range of weapons systems to support actual warfighting in support of a campaign plan to dominate the Korean peninsula.
North Korea's hypersonic missile claims are credible, exclusive analysis shows - Breaking Defense
A new analysis shows that a Jan. 11 North Korean missile test could well be a hypersonic weapon - and one that holds American bases in Japan in a new level of danger.
By RALPH SAVELSBERG AND TOMOHIKO KAWAGUCHI
on February 16, 2022 at 5:01 AM
People watch a television broadcast reporting on North Korean Kim Jong-un on January 05, 2022 in Seoul, South Korea. (Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)
As the US works to develop a hypersonic arsenal, North Korea has now claimed three different launches as successful hypersonic weapons tests. Few take Pyongyang at its word, but a new analysis by experts Ralph Savelsberg and Tomohiko Kawaguchi has concluded that the DPRK likely has developed a hypersonic weapon. In this exclusive analysis for Breaking Defense, the pair explain their work — and their troubling conclusions.
North Korea has already performed more missile tests in 2022 than they did all of 2021. Some of the tests have involved missiles they have launched before, but the most eye-popping claim from Pyongyang is that a pair of launches, on Jan. 5 and Jan. 11, involved a previously unknown capability: a hypersonic missile.
According to KCNA, the DPRK official press agency, on its Jan. 11 flight, the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) separated from its booster after travelling 600km. Subsequently, it flew a gliding trajectory, during which it made a turn, before hitting its target at roughly 1,000km from the launch site. KCNA also published images of Kim Jong Un in front of a blurred screen with a drawing of the vehicle’s planned trajectory. The initial heading points towards Japan, but then subsequently turns north.
Independently, the South Korean military confirmed that the missile flew more than 700km, reached a maximum altitude of 60km, and achieved a speed equivalent to Mach 10. The Japanese Defense Ministry published a map with the estimated splash zone for a ballistic trajectory, but acknowledged that the missile could have flown further on an “irregular trajectory.” There is no independent confirmation of where the missile landed, which leaves the question whether it, at least in theory, could have flown the planned trajectory.
Using a size estimate, based on previously analyzed data and engineering constraints from related missiles, we have performed a computer simulation of the flight of this new missile and the HGV. The results match the observed maximum altitude and velocity, as well as the planned trajectory shown by the DPRK. So this trajectory is plausible — and that is worrying, because it severely challenges existing missile defenses.
Trajectory map shown on a screen in an image of Kim Jong Un attending the January 11 launch (left) and a map published by the Japanese Defense Ministry of the impact zone if the missile would have flown a ballistic trajectory (right).
This isn’t the first time the DPRK has claimed to launch a hypersonic weapon; in Sept. 2021, a missile dubbed the Hwasong-8 was launched, but statements in South Korean media suggest that flight failed. Based on images of the January launches, the new missiles are of a different design. Both types have a rocket booster, apparently powered by the engine cluster used for North Korea’s Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 ballistic missiles, and at a first glance these look very similar. However, the small Vernier engines used for steering are positioned closer to the main nozzle on the new missile than on the Hwasong-8.
Missiles scaled using the diameter of the main engine nozzle. (DPRK State Media, graphic by Savelsberg/Kawaguchi)
Images scaled with the diameter of the main nozzle, instead of with the body diameter, show that the new booster is shorter and narrower. Overall the missile is also shorter than the Hwasong-12. This smaller size is confirmed by footage from an exhibition held in Pyongyang last year, where this new missile, still unknown at the time, was displayed next to a Hwasong-12.
Missiles on display in Pyongyang, with the hypersonic missile lying next to the Hwasong-12. (DPRK State Media, highlights bySavelsberg/Kawaguchi)
The hypersonic glide vehicle is cylindrically symmetric, with four triangular control fins. This is similar to Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRVs) used on some ballistic missiles, such as the Iranian Qiam-2. On that missile, the aerodynamic controls are used to increase the accuracy of the impact point. However, such a shape can also generate lift for a gliding flight, by using the control fins to keep it at a small angle of attack relative to its velocity vector.
For our simulation we use a medium-fidelity model, in which the forces that act on the missile and the glide vehicle are calculated as a function of time. Based on the size comparison with the Hwasong-12, the new booster is approximately 9 m long (excluding the engine nozzles) and has a body diameter of 1.37 m. It uses liquid propellant, and its size indicates a propellant mass of approximately 10.8 tons, with a burn time of ~66 s based on the Hwasong-12 engine. With suitable masses for the airframe and engine, the estimated total booster mass is 12.9 tons. The glide vehicle is approximately 4 m long with a base diameter of 0.83 m and we estimate its mass to be 900 kg.
Simulation results: altitude versus range (left) and velocity as a function of time (right). (Savelsberg/Kawaguchi)
In the simulation, by launching the missile on a depressed ballistic trajectory to a distance of 750 km, we find a 60 km apogee and maximum velocity of 3.4 km/s or roughly Mach 10 — matching what was reported by South Korea. During its descent, starting about 600 km from the launch site, the simulated glide vehicle starts to generate lift and its trajectory levels off at an altitude of roughly 30 km. During this flight phase it also turns north, with a pre-set 350 km turn radius. The turn requires a sideways aerodynamic force. Finally, the vehicle pitches down towards the target, using proportional navigation.
These maneuvers increase aerodynamic drag and, since it is an unpowered glider, this decreases the velocity. These effects are all included in the simulation. Lift and drag coefficients, as a function of the angle of attack, the Mach-number and the altitude, were estimated using an aero-prediction code, based on the shape of the vehicle.
Visualization of the simulated trajectory and the associated ground track in Google Earth. (Savelsberg/Kawaguchi)
In the common definition, a hypersonic missile maneuvers inside the atmosphere and flies faster than Mach 5. The simulation results show that, during the glide, the velocity gradually decreases to about 1.6 km/s, roughly Mach 5, so it indeed is hypersonic. The simulated ground track closely matches the trajectory drawn on Kim Jong Un’s screen, so that trajectory is plausible.
The simulation confirms that the Jan. 11 launch did, indeed, meet the definition of a hypersonic weapon. What is still unclear is whether the glide vehicle completed the trajectory planned by DPRK or not.
In practice, hypersonic flight is difficult and it is uncertain whether the flight control system and the construction of the glider are up to this task. If the DPRK gets it right, though, this will be a much more dangerous weapon than ballistic missiles with similar ranges. Using our model, we can also calculate trajectories to different targets. For instance, the initial trajectory pointed towards Misawa Air Base; if it were the target the missile would not have to execute a turn. Therefore it would lose less velocity during the glide phase, which increases the range sufficiently for it to indeed reach the base, almost 1,300 km away.
This weapon leaves only limited options for defending Japan or US bases in Japan. The trajectory is too low to be intercepted by the Standard Missile 3, because it never leaves the atmosphere. It is unpredictable and too high to be intercepted by surface-to-air missiles that steer using aerodynamic controls, while lower-tier interceptors, such as Patriot, can only cover relatively small areas. The only practical upper-tier interceptor would be a missile such as THAAD, with a larger footprint and thrusters for its flight control.
Ralph Savelsberg, a member of the Breaking Defense Board of Contributors, is associate professor at the Netherlands Defence Academy in Den Helder, the Netherlands, specializing in missile defense. Tomohiko Kawaguchi is associate professor at the College of International Relations at Nihon University in Mishima, Shizuoka, Japan. The authors would like to thank James Kiessling for his valuable comments on this work. This article does not reflect any official position or policy of the Government of the Netherlands.
2. U.N. rapporteur discusses N.K. human rights issue in meetings with S. Korean officials
We must never forget that Kim Jong-un must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to survive and remain in power. Human rights is a moral imperative and a national security issue.
The "low-hanging fruit" for human rights is complying with the UN Commission of Inquiry demand to get information into the north and to inform the Korean people in the north of their human rights situation. As difficult as it is for us to believe they do not know that their human rights are being denied.
U.N. rapporteur discusses N.K. human rights issue in meetings with S. Korean officials | Yonhap News Agency
By Choi Soo-hyang and Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, Feb. 16 (Yonhap) -- The U.N. special rapporteur on North Korea's human rights met with South Korean officials Wednesday to discuss the reclusive state's humanitarian situation, Seoul officials said.
Tomas Ojea Quintana arrived in Seoul on Tuesday for a nine-day visit, during which he plans to meet with South Korean government officials, politicians, as well as civic groups and North Korean defectors to prepare for an annual report to be submitted to the Human Rights Council next month.
He paid a courtesy call to Vice Unification Minister Choi Young-jun and discussed pending humanitarian issues, including the reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, according to the Ministry of Unification.
"The vice unification minister said efforts to improve inter-Korean relations and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula should make progress based on cooperation with the international community to actually promote North Koreans' human rights," the ministry said in a press release.
Quintana also had a meeting with Second Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-moon to exchange opinions on diplomatic efforts to promote human rights in North Korea, the foreign ministry said.
On Thursday, the U.N. expert is scheduled to meet the brother of a South Korean fisheries official who was killed by North Korean troops near the inter-Korean sea border in 2020 and the son of the North's 1969 plane hijacking victim.
It is Quintana's seventh trip to South Korea since taking office in August 2016 and the last before his term ends in August.
The rapporteur will hold a press briefing on his findings and recommendations on the last day of his stay here.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. U.S., S. Korea mulling ways to engage with N. Korea: Amb. Lee
It takes two to tango but it appears Kim Jong-un does not tango.
U.S., S. Korea mulling ways to engage with N. Korea: Amb. Lee | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States are reviewing steps to induce North Korea back to dialogue, South Korean Ambassador to the United States Lee Soo-hyuck said Tuesday.
Lee, however, noted the North continues to remain unresponsive to U.S. overtures.
"We are deeply concerned about North Korea firing a series of missiles at the start of the year, and are urging North Korea to refrain from taking additional actions that escalate tension and return to dialogue and diplomacy," the top South Korean diplomat in the U.S. said in a meeting with reporters here.
"The U.S. is still awaiting North Korea's response," he added. "South Korea and the U.S. are examining ways to bring North Korea to the dialogue table."
Lee's remarks come after South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met last week in Hawaii to discuss ways to engage with North Korea during bilateral and trilateral talks that also involved their Japanese counterpart, Yoshimasa Hayashi.
Pyongyang conducted seven rounds of missile launches in January alone, marking the largest number of missile tests in a single month.
The flurry of launches included the firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile, the longest range missile fired by the North since November 2017.
Following his meetings in Honolulu, Chung said South Korea has proposed new ways to engage with North Korea but that the U.S. needs time to review the steps that he said may be unveiled at a later date.
Lee said Seoul and Washington will continue to maintain a high level of communication on North Korea and other major issues.
Earlier reports said U.S. President Joe Biden is considering visiting Seoul in the first half of the year when he travels to the region for the second Quad leaders summit.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. For trilateral cooperation (ROK, Japan, US)
This is what makes trilateral cooperation so hard. A key line of effort in our Indo-Pacific strategy.
For trilateral cooperation
Japan should face up to history squarely
The U.S. has called on South Korea and Japan to improve their ties in a move to beef up trilateral cooperation with its two main Asian allies. This call is part of the Biden administration's newly unveiled Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China's rise and cope with North Korea's military threats.
Stepping up three-way cooperation was included in the strategy's "Indo-Pacific Action Plan" to be pursued over the next 12 to 24 months. Last week, the White House released a 19-page document on the new strategy stressing the need for closer collaboration with regional allies and partners amid the escalating Sino-U.S. rivalry.
The idea of expanding trilateral cooperation between the U.S., South Korea and Japan is nothing new. The Trump administration had also floated the same idea to keep a more assertive China in check, but made little progress due to deteriorating ties between Seoul and Tokyo over thorny historical issues, including wartime forced labor and sex slavery.
Now the problem is that South Korea and Japan are still not ready to bury the hatchet and mend their ties anytime soon. The U.S. cannot galvanize trilateralism before the two Asian allies restore their estranged bilateral relationship. It is necessary for Washington to make efforts to help Seoul and Tokyo leave their historical disputes behind and move forward toward a future-oriented partnership.
In this context, the U.S. hosted a meeting of the top diplomats of the three countries in Hawaii, Saturday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, South Korea Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi showed their united front against North Korea which conducted seven rounds of missiles launches, including the test-firing of two hypersonic missiles, last month.
The ministers' meeting drew positive assessments from experts, in that the three counties agreed to deal with the North Korean provocations jointly. But the talks failed to make any progress in boosting trilateral collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region. Of course, it is hard to expect any breakthroughs from holding a one-time meeting. Yet it is disappointing to see South Korea and Japan only agree to disagree.
Minister Chung and his Japanese counterpart Hayashi discussed a set of bilateral pending issues. But they failed to narrow their differences over many historical issues, including Japan's push to submit the Sado mine to UNESCO's World Heritage List. South Korea is strongly opposing the push because about 2,000 Koreans were forced into hard labor at the mine during World War II.
As Chung said, Japan should have an accurate understanding of history. Seoul and Tokyo cannot reconcile and restore their friendship if Japan refuses to face up to history squarely. Japan should make a sincere apology for wartime forced labor and sex slavery and pay compensation to the victims. Tokyo should also lift its export restrictions on key industrial materials for Korean firms immediately. Otherwise, it is difficult to see any progress in bilateral relations and trilateral cooperation with the U.S.
5. N. Korean leader attends national meeting to celebrate late father's 80th birthday
What can we glean from the who's who of attendees?
(2nd LD) N. Korean leader attends national meeting to celebrate late father's 80th birthday | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS more info in paras 2, 6-9; CHANGES photo)
By Choi Soo-hyang and Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, Feb. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has attended a national meeting to celebrate the 80th birthday anniversary of his late father Kim Jong-il, according to Pyongyang's state media Wednesday.
Kim was present at the event to pay tribute to the former leader, which was held in the northwestern city of Samjiyon the previous day, the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said. It is the first time the North has had such a high-profile national meeting there instead of Pyongyang.
"A floral basket in the name of Kim Jong-un was laid in front of the statue of the Chairman (Kim Jong-il)," it said.
Kim was accompanied by senior party officials, including his influential sister, Kim Yo-jong, at the event, as Ri Il-hwan, a member of the ruling party's powerful politburo, made a related report.
The KCNA did not mention if Kim delivered a message during the meeting.
It remains unconfirmed if Kim has also visited the landmark mausoleum of his father in the capital or will do so as usual for the anniversary.
Kim has paid tribute at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where the late leader's body lies in state, every year since he took power in late 2011.
The North's top military official, Pak Jong-chon, meanwhile, was absent from Tuesday's event, raising speculations over his whereabouts.
Pak did not attend a major parliamentary meeting held earlier this month after last appearing in state media accompanying the leader at an art performance marking Lunar New Year's Day on Feb. 1.
North Korea has been holding various events to mark this week's anniversary, with keen attention from the outside world on whether it will stage a large-scale military parade.
South Korea's military earlier said it detected signs of a possible military parade. However, it could be held on or near April 15th, which marks the 110th birthday anniversary of Kim's late grandfather and national founder, Kim Il-sung, given that it is still at the early stage of preparations.
The North says Kim Jong-il was born on Feb. 16, 1942, in a Samjiyon area located at the foot of Mount Paekdu. He ruled the country for nearly two decades and died in 2011. Developing the Samjiyon city has been one of Kim Jong-un's major goals since taking the helm of the North right after his father's death.
Last week, Kim said, "The work of sprucing up Samjiyon City was victoriously concluded as a gift of loyalty to the 80th birth anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong-il."
North Korea elevated the status of Samjiyon from a county to a city in 2019 and has called for transforming the area into the "wealthiest" region in the country.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
6. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Minus 30 degrees Celsius! People live with neighbours without enough money for heating, and some lose weight by reducing food costs... Unusual coal rationing for workers.
The amount of suffering is just unfathomable.
＜Inside N. Korea＞ Minus 30 degrees Celsius! People live with neighbours without enough money for heating, and some lose weight by reducing food costs... Unusual coal rationing for workers.
(Photo) After fetching water from a communal well in a village, a woman walks home where the water supply has been cut off due to power shortages. Photographed in the central region of North Korea in January 2015 (ASIAPRESS).
◆ Excessive Coronavirus Measures Cause Sharp Decline in Cash Income
Winters in northern North Korea are cold. Especially in the upper reaches of the Tumen River and Yalu River, where the elevation is high, it is common for the temperature to drop below 30 degrees Celsius during the cold season.
"It's freezing this year. In North Korea, there is a saying, 'Kamado lives together.' Some families live with others only during the winter as they cannot afford to buy firewood, and some people become so skinny that they refrain from buying food."
This is what our reporting partner living in Hyesan, the central city of Ryanggang Province on the upper reaches of the Yalu River told us.
For ordinary people, the biggest concern in winter is heating. Whether it is an apartment or a single house, most use coal or wood-fired floor heating (Ondol). In the past, low-cost coal was rationed by the government, but this almost collapsed in the 1990s. So instead, residents generally purchased coal from merchants in cash. Then, they add water and knead it to make briquettes.
The big problem now is that there is no money. The Kim Jong-un regime's extreme measures against the coronavirus have exacerbated the economic slump for the past two years. Many ordinary people's cash income has plummeted due to poor business practices and lack of opportunities to work. Vulnerable groups, such as elderly households, have even died of hunger and disease. In addition to the above, people are burdened with burning firewood in winter.
(Photo) Snow clings to the shoes of a photographer who walked along a snowy road to fetch water. Photographed in the central region of North Korea in January 2015 (ASIAPRESS).
◆ Unusual Implementation of Coal Rationing
In January, at the beginning of the severe winter season, the authorities decided to distribute coal for heating to workers through factories and enterprises.
"They started rationing 500 to 800 kilograms of coal per worker, saying 'it is a party favour.' The price is the national price set in the past, which is deducted from the workers' salaries, but it is very cheap, so everyone welcomes it," said our reporting partner.
Even state-owned factories and enterprises are not supplied for free by coal mines and coal companies. Therefore, the government issues a "coal voucher" to the state-owned company, which guarantees that it will cover the cost, and the coal company approves the supply. The coal company then hands the voucher to a bank or state agency for later settlement. This is the old "socialist method" that has long since become obsolete.
However, this time, the responsibility for transporting the coal lies with each workplace. Since it has to be picked up, each workplace collects transportation fees from its employees to arrange for a truck from a transportation company. In addition, companies are selling coal to merchants to raise money for transportation.
(Photo) Kim Jong-un inspects a construction site in Samjiyon during a snowfall. As quoted from Labor News, November 2018.
◆ Households without workplaces have no option but to buy in the market.
What is problematic are those who do not have a job. For example, housewives, those who earn their living mainly by trading, and retirees have to buy coal in the market, as there will be no coal ration this time.
"Even so, the price of coal in the market has been falling. Until the end of last year, the price of coal was 200 RMB per ton, but now it is 170 RMB per ton. Companies that receive rations sell it on the market to make cash, and the price has become cheaper. Its 'wholesale price' is 130-140 RMB."
※10 RMB is about 1.57 USD.
Along with coal, firewood is another necessary fuel for residents. However, the Kim Jong-un regime, which emphasizes protecting the forests, has imposed a strict ban on cutting down logs for firewood and tightened checkpoints on the roads leading to and from the mountains so that most of what is sold in the market are small shrubs and dead branches, and the price of raw wood with high calorific value has skyrocketed.
North Korean winters are long, and heating will be needed until late April (Kang Ji-won).
※ASIAPRESS contacts its reporting partners in North Korea through smuggled Chinese mobile phones.
7. N. Korea touts ties with China in celebration of late leader's birthday
Closer than lips and teeth.
N. Korea touts ties with China in celebration of late leader's birthday | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Feb. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has touted its "deep-rooted" friendship with China and efforts made by its late leader Kim Jong-il to develop bilateral ties as it marked his 80th birth anniversary.
In a post on its foreign ministry's website, the North highlighted the "devotion" of Kim, father of current leader Kim Jong-un, to support the "revolutionary cause of the Chinese people" and strengthen relations in commemoration of his birthday, which falls on Wednesday this year.
It said he visited China nine times during his lifetime and that he "led the DPRK-PRC friendship into the further development and consolidation through centuries," using the acronyms for the official names of the North and China -- the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China.
It highlighted Kim's efforts to maintain solidarity with China, such as sending high-level delegations to the celebrations of the 40th anniversary of China's National Day in 1989 and to the 1990 Beijing Asian Games.
In celebration of the late leader's birthday, the North held a national meeting Tuesday in the northern city of Samjiyon, where it claims Kim was born.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
8. N.Korea Reactivates Uranium Enrichment Plant
A little late reporting from the Chosun Ilbo.
N.Korea Reactivates Uranium Enrichment Plant
February 15, 2022 10:07
North Korea has reactivated a uranium-enrichment plant and a 5-megawatt plutonium-producing reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, according to Voice of America on Monday.
The North has gone through a flurry of missile tests this year and now seems to be producing nuclear materials for their warheads.
Olli Heinonen, formerly of the International Atomic Energy Agency, came to the conclusion based on satellite images from Feb. 1.
It shows that snow has melted on a section of the sprawling complex that "contains the control room and stations for feeding and withdrawing uranium hexafluoride from the enrichment halls," according to Heinonen.
/VOA
"These sections should only be heated when the facility operates," Heinonen said. "With those observations it is likely that the UEP is operating.'
"There are also snow melts in support buildings, which include activities such as assembling and balancing of centrifuges, decontamination of equipment, keep centrifuge halls in constant temperature, maintain clean air environment and distribute electricity," he added.
Heinonen speculated that the 5-megawatt plutonium-producing reactor is also operating. "Snow melts first from the roofs of the turbine hall, heat exchangers, and ventilation stack," he said. "Same happens with the buildings, which are supporting operations of the reactor."
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
9. North Korea marks phase two of new homes project, phase one still incomplete
Keep the population busy and too tired to resist. And never finish anything.
North Korea marks phase two of new homes project, phase one still incomplete
Kim Jong Un has pledged to build 10,000 new dwellings a year in Pyongyang over the next five years.
By Jieun Kim
2022.02.15
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is celebrating plans to build another 10,000 new homes for residents of Pyongyang, even as work on the first 10,000 pledged under a capital building scheme has fallen behind schedule, sources in the country told RFA.
Pyongyang, the country’s capital and with a population of 3 million its largest city, suffers from a severe housing shortage. Kim pledged at the Korean Workers’ Party Congress in January 2021 his government would build 50,000 houses by the end of 2025, one-fifth of which were to have been finished by the end of last year.
But workers have only completed the exteriors of most of the buildings, a setback largely attributed to a two-year suspension of trade with China due to the coronavirus pandemic. Almost everything that goes into the interiors of North Korean homes, from sinks to toilets to kitchen fixtures, is imported from China.
Despite the delays, Kim held a groundbreaking ceremony to mark the next phase of the construction project. Freight trade with China resumed last month, and Pyongyang has been fervently importing construction materials, even when food is its most pressing concern, to try to get the home construction program back on schedule.
Residents in the capital are upset that the government continues to kick people out of their homes to start on the next 10,000 homes before the first 10,000 have been finished, a resident of South Pyongan province, north of the capital, told RFA’s Korean Service.
The source, who requested anonymity for security reasons, read reports in state media that detailed Kim Jong Un’s speech at the groundbreaking.
“[He] called it the establishment of ‘a new area for the people, symbolizing another era of transformation,’” said the source. “He claimed that the 10,000 new homes in Pyongyang were a move ‘toward a great new era of socialist development.’”
But the residents considered the ceremony to be “outrageous propaganda,” according to the source.
“The first 10,000 homes … were supposed to be completed by the end of last year,” the source said. “The displaced residents who received home use permits for the new homes have been living in great difficulty because they were not able to move into new homes.”
Since all real estate is owned by the state, people technically do not own their homes in North Korea. Instead they receive home-use permits, which can be traded on the open market, effectively circumventing government controls on real estate trading and speculation.
For residents who were forced to give up their old homes because they were in the construction area, a home-use permit for the newly constructed homes was their only compensation. They are on their own for lodging in the interim, forced to stay with family or friends while they wait for construction to be completed.
“They have barely completed the building frames of the last 10,000 homes due to the lack of construction materials. All the interior work remains unfinished, and they are already looking forward to the next goal of finishing 10,000 homes with a grandiose ceremony,” the source said.
“The big plan for 50,000 homes in Pyongyang in five years is going to be a huge talking point for the government,” he said.
Residents in the northwestern province of North Pyongan were unmoved by the latest groundbreaking, a resident there told RFA.
“They wonder, ‘Will the new apartments go up on their own if we don’t even have construction materials yet? Even if we blindly set a goal and add manpower to speed things up?’” the second source said.
The second source noted that funds were collected from residents all over the country and tens of thousands of soldiers were mobilized to meet the construction goals for the capital in the middle of the pandemic. And still, the government failed to complete its goal.
“It may not even be completed until the Day of the Sun,” said the second source, referring to April 15, a major national holiday to commemorate the birth anniversary of North Korea’s late founder and Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung.
The 10,000-home construction project is a major priority for the North Korean government. RFA reported in June that authorities routed electricity away from other regions of the country to keep Pyongyang fully powered so construction workers could work through the night.
Working on the project has been grueling and dangerous for the mobilized workers. Pyongyang residents complained in May that the underfed workers were mugging civilians to get money for food. Additionally, a fire in a workers’ dormitory killed 20 workers in April, RFA reported.
Translated by Claire Lee. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
10. The People at Camp 14: Those Who Remain Silent Forever
The People at Camp 14: Those Who Remain Silent Forever
Produced by Doohyun (Jake) Kim, HRNK Consultant
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Dear Friends of HRNK,
The report found that Camp No. 14, located near Kaechon, South Pyongan Province, "remains one of North Korea's oldest continuously operating political prisoner camps, having been established as far back as 1965."
In the video below, produced by HRNK Consultant Doohyun (Jake) Kim, we provide a comprehensive overview of what we know about this facility based on witness testimony and satellite imagery analysis. Some of this information can also be found in The Hidden Gulag (2nd ed.), published in 2012.
As stressed in our December 2021 satellite imagery report, HRNK "calls upon the Kim Jong-un regime to acknowledge the existence of its political prisons as the first step towards their dismantlement, immediately improve the nutritional status of prisoners, many of whom suffer from severe malnutrition [and] 'grant immediate, free and unimpeded access to international humanitarian organizations to provide assistance to the most vulnerable groups, including prisoners' as per Ireland's 2019 Universal Periodic Review recommendation, which North Korea supported."
Thank you very much for your continued attention and support as we seek to shine a light on the darkest corners of North Korea and bring freedom and justice to its people.
11. Who will rule Seoul next?
Who will rule Seoul next?
Closer ties with Washington and less regard for Pyongyang are likely whoever wins March’s election, argues Aidan Foster-Carter
The World Today
4 February 2022 3 minute READ
Aidan Foster-Carter
Honorary Senior Research Fellow in sociology and modern Korea, Leeds University
Moon Jae-in is running out of time. South Korean presidents wield great power – but not for long. The 1987 Constitution of the Sixth Republic of Korea, which ended four decades of dictatorships, mandates a single five-year stint. No second term is allowed.
The democracy thus created has proved robust, in several senses. Politics is fierce and hard-fought, but election results are respected. Power has regularly changed hands between Left and Right, in what has become a broadly two-party system.
Moon, a progressive, was elected in May 2017 after his conservative predecessor Park Geun-hye was impeached and later jailed for corruption. So, he has barely three months left in office. His successor will be elected on March 9 and enter the Blue House – Seoul’s equivalent of the White House – two months later, on May 9.
Moon Jae-in’s invitation to last June’s G7 summit in Cornwall sealed South Korea’s status as a global power
In foreign policy terms, Moon’s legacy is mixed. His bid to engage with North Korea, which bloomed in 2018 when he met Kim Jong-un three times, withered after the second US-North Korea summit in Hanoi failed in 2019. Kim has shunned him since, yet Moon is still chasing his dream, latterly touting a ‘peace declaration’ for the peninsula.
Pyongyang shows no interest, and Washington deems this premature. Yet Moon quixotically persists. His successor will not. Whoever wins in May, Kim Jong-un’s foolish rebuff of the friendliest South Korean leader imaginable means that no future southern president will waste much time on him.
Moon Jae-in’s invitation to last June’s G7 summit in Cornwall sealed South Korea’s status as a global power. In 2021, it was the world’s fifth largest exporter. With Korean culture now the height of cool – be it BTS, Parasite or Squid Game – South Korea’s considerable energies need to be firmly oriented outwards, rather than narrowly peninsula-focused.
The main challenge facing Moon’s successor is US-China tensions, which are sinking Seoul’s fond hopes of balancing between the two superpowers. Seen from Pyongyang or Beijing, the idea of a state that hosts 28,500 US troops being somehow neutral has always looked risible.
They notice too that Moon’s words and deeds diverge. On his watch, South Korean arms spending has risen by 7 per cent annually. Invited to the White House last May for Joe Biden’s second in-person summit, Moon took a posse of chaebol (conglomerate) bosses: shades of the old Korea Inc.
China is the top trade partner and a major investment destination, yet under Xi Jinping Beijing has alienated many South Koreans
Samsung, Hyundai et al duly committed to invest $40 billion in the United States: mostly in supply chains bypassing China, whose recent sudden export bans – such as urea needed for diesel vehicles – have hit the South Korean economy. China is its top trade partner and a major investment destination, yet under Xi Jinping Beijing has alienated many South Koreans. This is the reality which Moon’s successor will inherit.
And so to the contenders. Until recently it looked to be a two-horse race. The standard-bearer for the ruling Democrats is Lee Jae-myung, an ex-provincial governor. Domestically focused and more leftwing than Moon, Lee favours a universal basic income.
Beijing will find his successor less pliant
The conservative opposition, the People Power Party (PPP), has picked Yoon Seok-youl. A former prosecutor-general, initially popular for resisting Moon’s efforts to clip his wings, Yoon’s star has fallen amid scandals and gaffes. He has also rowed with the party’s youthful chairman Lee Jun-seok, who champions a sour new conservative demographic: young men bitterly hostile to feminism. Statistics show that on gender issues South Korea is among the most unequal countries in the OECD.
With Lee pulling ahead as Yoon’s support ebbed, a new twist has arisen. Recent polls suggest that Ahn Cheol-soo – the centrist leader of a small third party, hitherto a no-hoper in a first-past-the-post voting system – could soundly beat Lee if he allies with the PPP.
For now, both Ahn and the PPP reject this idea. But the lure of winning may yet tempt them.
On foreign policy, Yoon and Ahn are uncomplicatedly pro-American. Yoon criticizes China, which South Koreans dislike even more than Japan. Moon has tiptoed around Chinese sensibilities to no gain. Beijing will find his successor less pliant. Seoul will not formally join the Quad, the security dialogue comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia, but will increasingly align with its priorities.
Yoon or Ahn would also try to mend fences with Japan, which Moon damaged by ditching a ‘final’ accord on contentious historical issues signed by Park. After South Korean courts ordered Japanese companies to compensate pre-1945 slave labourers, Tokyo retaliated with trade sanctions.
On all these fronts Lee Jae-myung could prove more awkward. He would bridle at any US pressure, especially in the nightmare scenario of a second Trump presidency. Trump was as contemptuous of Moon as he was fawning towards Kim.
Lee’s view that South Korea need not take sides between China and the US is disingenuous. On Japan, like many South Koreans he puts righting past wrongs – an impossible task – above building the future-oriented relationship which China’s rise demands. This makes no sense.
Whoever wins, the economy will be key
Whoever wins, the economy will be key. Enthusiastic for bilateral and multilateral free-trade agreements – in December Seoul finally set wheels in motion to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement – the country may drag its feet on green targets. Nuclear power, which Moon initially sought to phase out, remains a dilemma for his successor.
Economic self-interest, a rebarbative North and worsening US-China tensions will set the parameters for whoever next occupies the Blue House. The rhetoric may vary, but the wiggle room is small. A right-wing leader would be ruder to China and nicer to Japan, but not hugely so in either case. Lee Jae-myung would talk differently but must walk in the same direction.
Chatham House is a world-leading policy institute with a mission to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.
© Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2022
12. Korea stands ready to cooperate with allies over Ukraine crisis
Tuesday
February 15, 2022
Korea stands ready to cooperate with allies over Ukraine crisis
Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook poses alongside French Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly with a fist bump in Paris, following their talks on Tuesday. [YONHAP]
Korea is eyeing the building crisis over Russia's military build-up near Ukraine and stands ready to cooperate with its allies, Seoul's Defense Ministry said Monday.
Moon Hong-sik, a deputy spokesman for the Defense Ministry, said at a regular briefing on Tuesday that Korea “is maintaining close cooperation with relevant countries while closely watching new developments related to the recent Ukraine crisis.”
The governments of Europe and the United States have issued warnings to Russia in recent weeks as the country amasses troops on its border with Ukraine and in neighboring Belarus, with the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden promising severe sanctions if Russia attempts an invasion.
The announcement that Korea is paying close attention to the situation in Ukraine follows a visit by Defense Minister Suh Wook to France on Monday for a meeting with his French counterpart, Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly, to discuss continued cooperation between Korea and France with regards to tensions in Ukraine.
At the meeting, Parly noted France has maintained a long-standing mission to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and said she hopes to strengthen security cooperation with Korea, according to the Defense Ministry.
The French Armed Forces minister also shared with Suh her country’s intelligence on recent developments in Ukraine, explaining that France has led consultations with Russia as a key member of the European Union and NATO.
As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, France is also committed to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, Parly told Suh.
The mutual promises of bilateral cooperation between Korea and France in their respective regions come as Seoul braces itself for an economic and security fallout from the crisis in Ukraine.
Comments by Biden that the United States will pursue deterrence in tandem with allies has sparked speculation that the United States could request its key allies outside Europe, such as Korea and Japan, to support a joint response to a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.
When asked specifically about a Korean military role in such a response at a press briefing at the Pentagon in Washington on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of Defense John Kirby said that while the nature of a “tangible” role was something for Seoul to decide, he was certain Kyiv would “welcome” such involvement.
However, Kirby added that such a choice would be a “sovereign decision that each nation state has to make for themselves,” and that he would not want to “get ahead” of the Korean government on its response to the Ukrainian crisis.
That sentiment was echoed by Mark Lambert, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Korea and Japan, who said he would “leave [a decision] to the leadership at Blue House … specific things the Republic of Korea or Japan wishes to do in response to something that we're all hoping doesn't take place.”
Lambert added that the situation in Ukraine was a “key topic” of trilateral discussions in Honolulu between Seoul’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Antony Blinken and Yoshimasa Hayashi, this past weekend.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
13. Political polarization hinders talks with North Korea
Political polarization hinders talks with North Korea
In advance of the one-year anniversary of his inauguration, President Joe Biden lamented the challenges of political polarization for advancing his agenda. In noting the near universal Republican opposition to the majority of his agenda and the lack of a Republican platform for governing that might allow room for compromise, Biden asked rhetorically, "I wonder what would be the Republican platform right now. What do you think?"
While much of Republican opposition to Biden and his agenda is driven by deepening political polarization in the United States, it does have implications for the administration's ability to pursue a positive agenda on North Korea.
North Korea policy has historically been an area of bipartisan cooperation in Washington. Congress in recent years has passed legislation strengthening U.S. sanctions on North Korea by overwhelming majorities, but as the history of Iran sanctions demonstrates, removing those sanctions can be much more challenging.
When the Obama administration negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, Congress used its authority over international commerce to pass the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. Despite the Iran agreement not being a formal treaty, Congress was able to use the Review Act to attempt to scuttle the deal. All 54 Republicans in the Senate and all 256 Republicans in the House voted against the Iran nuclear deal.
Republicans were not alone in voting against the Iran deal. Four Senate Democrats, including current Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and 19 House Democrats voted against the agreement.
The Obama administration was able to implement the Iran deal due to a quirk in the Senate rules allowing members to filibuster legislation ― in essence, to prevent it from coming to the floor for a vote. In the absence of the filibuster, majorities in both chambers of Congress were in disapproval of the agreement.
Any agreement with North Korea, of course, would be potentially different, but with a 50-50 Senate, Biden would need the support of 10 Republicans to overcome a filibuster in the Senate, if Congress were to pass a review act for a North Korea agreement, or need to pass legislation to implement the agreement.
With only a six-vote majority in the House, Biden would have little room to maneuver in either chamber. This situation limits the options of the administration on U.S. sanctions relief. While Biden or members of the cabinet have the ability temporarily to waive certain U.S. sanctions, most U.S. sanctions cannot be removed permanently without Congressional legislation.
Because of the Iran experience, North Korea would likely want a formal treaty with the United States to ensure that the next administration will not simply withdraw from the agreement as the Trump administration did with the Iran nuclear deal. However, securing the 67 votes need for the Senate to approve a treaty seems unlikely in the current political environment.
In earlier periods, building such a bipartisan coalition would have been possible, but the current Republican Party is in a place that makes it extremely challenging to compromise. Nearly 50 percent of Republicans view Democrats as enemies rather than political opponents (and unfortunately, a significant number of Democrats share that view of Republicans).
Former President Donald Trump also complicates the political dynamics. He has made belief, or at least acceptance, of the fiction that the election was stolen from him a litmus test for being a Republican ― a test many rank-and-file Republicans seem willing to endorse.
Even when Senate Republicans have tried maneuvers to undermine the Biden administration's domestic agenda, as was the case in using the recently passed infrastructure bill to divide Democrats over the Build Back Better plan, Trump has pushed back. In that case, enough Republicans supported the infrastructure bill, but courage in the face of Trump's criticism is not a quality in large store at the moment.
How Republicans approach an agreement on North Korea will likely reflect Trump's views and how willing he is to be critical of an agreement. North Korea was one of the few foreign policy areas where Trump put his personal effort and prestige into an agreement. In the aftermath of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the uncertainty around Russia's potential invasion of Ukraine, any agreement that was not extremely favorable to the United States would only create an opportunity for Trump to paint Biden as a weak president.
Even if political polarization were to decline in the near future, a Republican Party that returned to its historical norms would remain skeptical of North Korea's willingness to keep its end of any agreement. Such skepticism is shared by many Democrats as well.
Political polarization isn't the only factor hindering talks with Pyongyang. The pandemic and North Korea's own reluctance to even engage in talks remain factors that hinder progress, but political polarization ― and what might be achievable in the current environment ― is a factor that the United States, South Korea and North Korea need to consider if talks are to be revived.
Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.
14.
15.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
