According to my research, there are roughly ten million scientists in the world. Most of them never venture outside their own limited area of study -- and that is understandable -- considering the way our educational, commercial and scientific communities operate in the 21st century.
My guesstimate is that far less than 1/10th of one percent of them have a realistic grasp on the rapidly declining ability of our biosphere to keep us alive. Actually, 1/10th of one percent of ten million is a pretty big number: 10,000 to be exact.
That said, after searching 18 years for scientists who grasp that all-important "big picture" of what science is telling us about our future -- I have concluded that there are probably less than 100 in the entire world who qualify. This quote by E.O. Wilson suggests that he might agree with my conclusion:
"Scientists who might contribute to a more realistic worldview are especially disappointing. Largely yeomen, they are intellectual dwarves content to stay within the narrow specialties for which they were trained and are paid."
As for the 11 "big picture" scientists featured in Outcry, the majority of them have not yet even acknowledged the enormous ecological benefit of moving rapidly away from the consumption of animal-based foods. Why haven't they? I think it is because of this protein myth.
They, like most of the world's scientists and physicians, have not acknowledged the incredible health and cost benefits of making that biosphere-friendly, dietary shift. Most are simply unaware that a whole food, plant-based diet has been proven to be capable of easily reversing most chronic diseases -- including heart disease, type 2 diabetes and some cancers.
All ten million of the world's scientists should read, study and re-read the staggering facts about animal agriculture that Dr. Sailesh Rao (Stanford educated) reported in his April 2021, peer-reviewed position paper on climate change.
Despite their failure to embrace and publicize a rapid shift away from eating animal-based foods, we can still learn a great deal from those "big picture" scientists when it comes to the prevention of our demise.
Meet nine of those "big picture scientists. They are pictured below in the order of their ages. Three of the nine are deceased and appear on the top row.
The six living scientists are listed left to right, in the order of their ages, ranging from 101 to 61.
Most of these scientists with whom I am most familiar, including some who are not in the above group, appear to be growing less certain that we will survive this century as a species.
Today, I feature two of the scientists pictured above, along with a recently-discovered scientist in Australia who I believe deserves to be on this list. These three scientists range in age from 101 to 51.
The first two below appear in Chapter Four of Outcry, where a total of eleven scientists share their views on our future as a species. The oldest and, in my opinion, the premiere big picture scientist in the world, will turn 102 next month.
Dr. James Lovelock
Alive and Well at 101
Of all the scientists appearing on this list, I have concluded that this living legend grasps the relevant, global big picture more completely than perhaps any other scientist in the world.
Educated originally as a physician, he went on to study science, became an avid inventor and always insisted on maintaining his independence. As such, throughout his lengthy career, he has been completely free to publish his own findings and conclusions, regardless of how controversial those findings might be.
During the past few weeks, I have been watching some of his earlier videos, dating back to 2006. In my opinion, the conclusions that he drew fifteen years ago are still relevant, and even more compelling, today.
Ten Minute Video in 2009. This one was recorded on a popular Canadian talk show that appeals to a mainstream audience. Why do I like it? Because they discuss the kinds of questions that most people are asking about our future.
Click on this image to watch
this enlightening 10-minute video
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James Lovelock on The Hour
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While some scientists have concluded that there is nothing we can do to save our species from extinction, I love the way Lovelock expresses himself on that delicate topic when the host in the above video asks:
Are you saying that the entire human race will be wiped out? he replies refreshingly, "Oh, heavens no!"
On that note, It is great to hear that he may have concluded that we have a fighting chance to survive as a species. However, as he reveals, we are almost certainly in for some very challenging times during the next fifty years.
Specifically, before the end of this century, he is suggesting that our numbers may decrease from eight billion to less than one billion -- and that most of the remaining humans will reside in northern areas like Canada, Alaska, the British Isles and others.
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| Sounds like the food growing business will be booming in Canada |
As he was in Canada during that TV interview, he concludes that the main problem in their country will be how to handle the influx of people from other countries -- when they must say:
"No, we've got enough now. If we take any more, we can't feed you."
For the record, Lovelock states during the interview that, as a scientist, he cannot be dead certain about anything. But on some topics, he appears to be more certain than he does on others. For example, toward the end of their 10-minute chat, the host asks Lovelock if our decline is reversible?
To which he replied, "No, it is not!" He elaborated by saying that once you pass certain tipping points -- the process cannot be reversed. That simply means that we will have to adapt to whatever conditions nature delivers in the future. And, he is implying that those conditions may not be able to support more than one billion people. This doesn't mean that we should stop trying to slow down climate change -- just that we should think more about adaptation to whatever nature gives us.
I urge you to go back and watch that 10-minute video and share it with others. It is a mainstream, lighthearted format that most people can easily understand.
I also encourage you to watch another 9-minute, 2009 Lovelock interview that was conducted by David Frost.
One ray of hope coming from Dr. Lovelock is his feeling that artificial intelligence (AI) is coming of age at just the right time to play a key role in saving our civilization and our species. As such, he expresses a great deal of positive thinking along that theme in his
2020 book, Novacene, that he wrote at the age of 99.
In it, he suggests that we may end up with some kind of mutual support system with those robotic cyborgs. They may need us to help them keep the planet cooler -- and we may need them to help us to overcome our utter dysfunctionality (per E.O. Wilson) as a species. To that point, here is a new slide that I use in my lectures regarding that dysfunction.
Next up is the most controversial scientist of the eleven who are covered in Chapter 4 of Outcry. Indeed, he may be the most controversial scientist in the world.
Dr. Guy McPherson
Sticking mostly to the facts at 61
Dr. McPherson is the only scientist featured in this SOS Memo that I know personally. He is also the only scientist that I know who was eased out of a tenured university professorship for reporting disturbing scientific, peer-reviewed research findings in the classroom at the University of Arizona.
He spent his last few years there teaching at the Honors College until he voluntarily retired in 2009. His current title remains Professor Emeritus, which means retired with Honors
Since then, Guy has morphed into an exceptionally relevant, scientific reporting machine. He has packaged his work in bite-size reports that people can watch on YouTube at their breakfast table. In his frequent telecasts, he frequently pleas with the listeners to not shoot the messenger -- as he is just reporting scientific conclusions from the world's peer-reviewed literature.
This particular Science Update was published two weeks ago and contains numerous references to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
Click on screen below to watch 9-minute video
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| Arctic Ocean Warming, Losing Ice (4-25-21) |
In addition to 55 peer-reviewed, published papers, McPherson authored a 32,000 word climate essay that contains almost 800 hyperlink references (I counted them) -- many of which are to refereed journal, scientific papers on the topic of climate change and species extinction. To be sure, almost all of his conclusions are based, at least in part, on the work of scientific peers in the global community.
The problem that many people have with McPherson's work, is that he has often predicted that Homo sapiens will go extinct before 2030. To be sure, the other two scientists in this SOS Memo have grave concerns about our future, but they have not put a date on such a tragedy.
Given his tenacity in searching for scientific truths, coupled with the breadth and depth of his work in highly relevant disciplines -- I have concluded that he could very well be one of the most informed scientists in the world when it comes to species extinction. He deserves to be on this list, but as you might suspect, he does have some detractors.
Nowadays though, he appears to be sticking with the scientific data -- and not dwelling on his prediction of the number of years that we might have left on this planet. To me, this was a refreshing change of posture.
On a lighter note, I pointed out an interesting factoid about McPherson in Chapter 4 of Outcry:
Guy is one of a tiny percentage of the world's population who were born on February 29th, a date that only occurs once every four years. In our most recent dialog via email, he revealed a dry wit that I had not seen before. In an email to him a few weeks before his birthday in February of 2020, I asked him to verify if I had described his background and opinions correctly (in this chapter) and what it was like to have February 29th as a birthday.
For the record, he was okay with what I have written here --
and his closing remark demonstrates that, despite his dire forecast for our future, he at least still has a sense of humor, saying:
"My birthday imposes a hardship only one year in four. During three of those four years, I celebrate all month."
Guy, and his partner, Pauline, recently moved from Florida to Vermont, near the place where I do most of my writing. As such, we recently met for a mid-morning snack about halfway between our two homes -- in Manchester. It was a delightful discussion as I interviewed him regarding the personal sacrifices he has made in professional career -- while simply reporting scientific findings about some very disturbing topics.
I recommend that you learn more about Dr. McPherson and his work at guymcpherson.com. It is quite possible that he has a better grasp on the scientific literature related to our future as a species than any other living scientist. Click here to view his credentials at the University of Arizona website.
Now let's move on to the youngest scientist on the list.
Dr. Corey Bradshaw
Recently enlightened at 51
Earlier this year, I discovered this brilliant young scholar when I came across a new scientific paper published in January of 2021. A geological science professor at Flinders University in Australia, he is the lead author of a team of about 20 scientists that wrote this disturbingly-titled, scientific paper:
After carefully reading the paper a few times and, while looking for more of his work on the internet, I ran across a fabulous two-minute summary of that Ghastly Future" paper in the crisp and compelling two-minute Bradshaw video that follows.
I doubt you will have time to read that entire paper today, but I strongly encourage you to watch the video now. In it, he speaks with a passion that I have rarely seen in science or anywhere else.
You can tell that he knows that he and his team have produced a set of findings that are rarely ever mentioned in the overall, somewhat staid, scientific community. His passion for the topic comes through loud and clear as he sounds off about the mess we humans have made out of the natural world.
He doesn't know for sure what must be done to get us back on the right track, but he exhibits the knowledge, energy and determination that will likely be needed as we all work to save our civilization and our species.
Just click this image for his 2-minute message
Discovering Dr. Bradshaw, and his work, has been quite a thrill for me. Finally, we have a highly regarded, big-picture, ecological scientist who seems to have found his major definite purpose in life -- which is to figure out a way to save ourselves from extinction.
In March of this year I reached out to him in hopes of arranging a few online discussions and didn't really expect to hear back from this extremely busy man on a mission. But, he proved me wrong and responded with this encouraging message:
Thanks, Jim. Apologies for not being able to engage more at this stage. I'm completely overrun with academic duties at the moment, including trying to organise Ghastly 2.0. I might be able to respond properly in the next few months. I hope you can understand my current predicament.
Kind regards, Corey
Being one of the leading ecological scientists in the world and having recently become passionate about the desperate situation in which we find ourselves -- I can only imagine the pressure he is feeling right now.
I definitely admire his candor, his intensity and his rare ability to make complex things simple. For example, here is a chart that he uses to explain how we humans have essentially "stolen" the biosphere from the wild animals. Read the explanation below the chart.
Staggering Biodiversity Crisis: From 100% wild to 4%
From this chart, we can clearly see that in 10,000 BCE (12,000 years ago) wild animals comprised 100% of the total vertebrate biomass on this planet. Today, wild animals comprise only 4%, now comprising less biomass than the cats and dogs that we humans keep for pets.
Alarmingly, the world's cattle (beef and dairy) now comprise a greater biomass than all other vertebrate species combined. The chart clearly shows that 96% of the world's total vertebrate biomass (almost two billion tonnes) was created by humankind and has no useful function whatsoever when it comes to nurturing the biosphere that keeps us alive.
It would be great if Dr. Bradshaw could spend a few days with Dr. lovelock. In their discussions, I think that the younger scientist would come away with an enlightened feeling about how we can realistically leverage the power of AI to save our civilization and our species.
Conveniently, two of the three scientists featured in this SOS Memo, appeared together in a video discussion that took place in June of 2020. It's hard to read in the video image but here is the description of this timely and relevant video:
Kevin and Guy were joined in this pre-recorded video by Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University in Australia. They discuss Bradshaw's renowned work on the consequences of rapid environmental change. Just click on the image to watch. It runs 56 minutes.
The Bottom Line. We are in big trouble, but I am encouraged to know that Dr. James Lovelock concludes that we are not likely to go extinct as a species anytime soon.
As for the staggering biodiversity crisis mentioned earlier and the prominence of the animal-based food industry on that chart -- I am terribly disappointed that only two or three of the eleven "big picture" scientists featured in Chapter 4 of Outcry are aware of the fact that we simply MUST walk/run quickly away from eating animals.
This observation provides me with a bit of hope that perhaps we have a better chance of surviving than they might think we do. There are four reasons why I feel more optimistic than they do.
Those reasons relate to four separate topics, with which some or most of those eleven "big picture" scientists might not be very familiar:
- Food Choices. Switching 100% to plant based is a no-brainer once any scientist fully understands the highly positive health impacts -- coupled with the extremely negative sustainability impacts.
- Systemic Change. Leveraging the next two items, we just might be capable of totally re-designing our overall "systems" of living on this planet -- with a goal of making those "systems" as sustainable as they can possibly be.
- Artificial Intelligence. As mentioned earlier, Dr. Lovelock is all over this topic and I am glad to see it. Every leader in the world should read his recent book on this topic. Novacene.
- Leadership. This is the biggest variable of all. I know from my own lengthy business career that this one variable can be a huge game-changer. Where is the superb leadership that understands the first three bullets and is ready to leverage those bullets in an all-out effort to save our civilization?
