May 29, 2020 -- Wise Roads Scenery
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Banks 8S, located eight miles north of Watford City, is the 25th Wise Roads weather station, marking completion of Phase II of the project. More stations are on the way (see below).
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State May Need Coal Creek Transition Plan
Two Years Not Enough to Secure a New Operator
The state of North Dakota through its transmission authority will likely have to come up with a transition plan for Coal Creek Station to give state and local officials more time to come up with a new operator for the 1,100 megawatt coal plant.
Speaking to the ND Industrial Commission today, Transmission Authority Director John Weeda said current market economics do not properly compensate owners of baseload generation, which means it's likely to take several years to find a buyer for the massive facility. The plant's current owner, Great River Energy, announced earlier this month that it intends to shut down the facility by the end of 2022.
Weeda said Coal Creek Station is the lowest or nearly the lowest cost generation in North Dakota and in MISO (the regional transmission operator). He said the only reason Coal Creek would go away is because the current market structure is not supporting capital costs.
Click
here to listen to Weeda's comments.
Weeda said it will be difficult to find a buyer for Coal Creek, especially one willing to run both of the plant's generating units. He believes the most likely scenario is that a buyer keeps one unit running, and installs technology to capture the plant's carbon dioxide emissions to take advantage of Section 45-Q federal tax credits. Weeda said the economics of a CO2-capture project at the plant are enticing, with return on investment in the range of 20-to-35 percent
Click
here to listen to Weeda's comments.
Weeda said if it becomes necessary to buy additional time to find a solution that will keep Coal Creek open, the
state law that established the transmission authority empowers it to take an ownership position in an electric transmission line. He also cautioned during his presentation that the state needs to keep an eye on what he expects will be much higher costs needed to maintain grid stability because of the increasing penetration of intermittent wind and solar generation.
Click
here to see Weeda's slide presentation.
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Steep Drop in Wind Farm Output After 10 Years
Study Suggests Wind Dependent on Subsidies
A new study shows there is a big drop in the performance of U.S. wind farms after 10 years, a time period which coincides with the point at which the turbines lose eligibility for federal production tax credits.
The study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory examined production decline data from 917 wind facilities throughout the United States. It found that wind turbines become 13 percent less productive by the time they are 17 years old, but that most of the decline in production occurs after Year 10, which is also when wind farms are no longer eligible for federal subsidies.
The performance of newer wind turbines deteriorates at a slower rate than older projects, but the new facilities also experience an abrupt decline in output after 10 years of operation. Increasing downtime for maintenance, erosion of blades, and increasing friction within rotating components contribute to declines in output.
The study concludes that operators have an incentive to maintain turbines during the first decade because of the federal production tax credit, but aren't as diligent when turbines no long qualify for the federal subsidy. The accelerated decline in performance was not found in studies focusing on European wind fleets, in which output declined consistently over time, further supporting the study's conclusion.
Click
here to read or download the Berkeley study.
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Bakken Re-Start Task Force is Getting Busy
With more than 7,000 oil wells idled due to the downturn in oil prices and the ongoing pandemic, state agencies are working together to come up with ideas for speeding up North Dakota's economic recovery.
Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms, who is coordinating the multi-agency Bakken Re-Start Task Force, told members of the ND Industrial Commission today the group is focusing on three areas -- regulatory relief, economic stimulus and re-starting the wells. Helms said the re-start effort is actually focusing on wells that are not economic to produce at current prices. He said they want wells that don't produce much oil and/or generate a lot of produced water because they present the greatest employment opportunities.
Click
here to listen to Helms' comments.
Helms told the NDIC that a job-creation program authorized by the legislature's Budget Section that is aimed at plugging plug abandoned and orphaned wells will get underway in a few weeks.
Click
here to listen to Helms comments.
Helms said the industry employed 51,000 workers prior to the downturn, and as of this week there have been 8,900 unemployment claims from workers who've lost their jobs. He said the state is also hoping to create jobs with a thief hatch replacement program that will reduce methane emissions for oil storage tanks, and will also encourage oil industry pipeline workers to seek employment with the Western Area Water Supply Authority that will be installing many miles of water pipe this summer.
Helms said state agencies have also been looking for ways to ease the regulatory burden on the oil industry and others to support the state's economic recovery.
Click
here to listen to Helms' comments.
Helms said some companies have already brought shut-in wells back online, dropping the current total to about 6,800 wells, representing about 475,000 bbls/day of shut-in production.
Click
here to see Helms' Re-start slide presentation.
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Next Phase of ND Smart Restart Announced
Gov. Doug Burgum today announced North Dakota is moving to the next phase of its Smart Restart plan, as the state continues to see a high rate of testing per capita, a low positive test rate and adequate hospital capacity to handle surges in COVID-19 cases.
“North Dakotans have done a great job exercising individual responsibility to slow the spread of the coronavirus, putting our state in a position to be able to further reopen our economy with a thoughtful, common-sense approach focused on saving lives and livelihoods,” Burgum said.
Under the color-coded health guidance system in the ND Smart Restart plan, the change announced today moves the state out of the yellow, or moderate, risk level, and into the green, or low-risk, level – one level before the blue “new normal” level. With the move from the moderate to low risk level:
- The recommendation for capacity in bars and restaurants increases from 50% to 75%
- The recommendation for banquets/weddings increases from 50% occupancy up to 250 attendees, to 75% occupancy up to 500 attendees
- Recommended movie theater capacity increases from 20% to 65%
- Fitness centers may consider holding classes with high inhalation/exhalation exchange with social distancing, which was not recommended under the yellow level
North Dakota has completed 89,599 tests, and has tested 69,453 unique North Dakotans, resulting in a total of 2,520 positive cases and the third-highest per-capita testing rate in the nation. The state has reported 59 deaths of people with COVID-19, including two reported today – a woman in her 90s and a man in his 70s, both from Cass County and both with underlying health conditions.
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Phase II of Wise Roads Project is Complete
25 More Stations to be Placed This Summer & Fall
The second phase of a project aimed at reducing disruptions in the movement of oilfield truck traffic was completed last week with the installation of the 25th scientific-grade weather station in the Wise Roads network.
WDEA launched Wise Roads (Weather Information System to Effectively Reduce Oilfield Delays and Disruptions) last summer to provide real-time weather information, especially precipitation data, to allow county/township road managers to more precisely identify those roads that require temporary weight restrictions, and more importantly, exclude those that do not.
Phase I of the project was completed in late June 2019 with installation of the first 10 weather stations. Phase II, which involved the placement of 15 more stations, was completed last Friday with the installation of
Banks 8S, located about eight miles north-northeast of Watford City. WDEA is currently scouting locations for Phase III and IV of the project, which will involve the placement of 25 more weather stations throughout the oil-producing counties.
Nearly all of the stations have been placed adjacent to gravel roads that experience a high level of oilfield truck traffic. Each station is equipped with a high-resolution digital camera, giving road managers a real time image of the condition of the road. The project is partially funded by a grant from the Oil and Gas Research Council. WDEA's share of the project is funded through a 1.5% surcharge on oversize truck permit fees charged by counties through WDEA's LoadPass Permits System.
Once they are in place, the stations become part of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (
NDAWN), where the weather data is made available to the public. NDAWN also maintains a
Flick page where images from many of the stations' cameras can be found. WDEA is currently developing software to incorporate the weather data into its LoadPass routable map.
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Killdeer Voters Okay School Project
Voters in the Killdeer Public School District voted last week to approve a $38 million bond issue to finance construction of a new junior high and high school.
Final totals show 62% of voters approved the project, with 336 voting in favor, and 224 opposing the plan.
Grading of the 40-acre site on the south side of town will get underway this summer, with construction work on the 105,000 square foot building expected to begin in the spring of 2021. The work will take about two years so the new facility will be ready for students beginning with the 2023-24 school year.
The building will be designed to handle 350 to 400 students. Currently all K-12 students are housed in a single school building that has seen multiple additions over the years. It will be converted to classrooms for pre-K through 6th grade students. Enrollment in the Killdeer district has grown by nearly 70% the past 10 years, from 373 students in 2009-2010 to 625 students in the 2019-2020 school year.
Thanks to help from Dunn County and the substantial amount of industrial property in the county, only about 20% of the $38 million will come from local taxpayers. Property owners will see an additional levy of 34.33 mills, amounting to $154.50 on each $100,000 of full and true valuation. The Dunn County Commission established a grant program for school projects. Killdeer would qualify for a grant of $8.5 million that can be used toward a building project or paying a bond. The district has also earmarked $6.5 million of its share of incoming gross production tax revenue for the project.
Click
here to see the district's Frequently Asked Questions fact sheet about the project.
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EmPower ND Re-Examining Its Role
The state's EmPower Commission was created by the 2007 Legislature to develop comprehensive energy policy recommendations for the state's diverse and growing energy industry, but lately it hasn't been all that visible because the group has not been able to agree on the issues it wished to promote. This week its members met to look for ways it can more aggressively engage in promoting energy development in the state.
Because the group represents diverse forms of energy with competing interests, it is difficult to arrive at a consensus to take a stand on significant issues. Commission members spent three hours in an on-line meeting debating whether to continue efforts to achieve consensus, or if perhaps it could engage on topics supported by a large majority of its members if the small number who were opposed "could live with it."
EmPower members were not able to agree on that issue, but did develop a list of five areas they intend to discuss at additional meetings in June. The five areas include:
- Energy or other ares of research
- Establishing a business friendly environment (regulation, zoning, etc.)
- Industrial park development and value-added energy
- Electric transmission, both grid impacts and capacity needs
- Public education and communication, promote understanding and dispel myths
The group's meeting are facilitated by Commerce Commissioner Michelle Kommer and Lt. Governor Brent Sanford. EmPower is due to deliver a report of its work to the interim Energy Development and Transmission Committee at its meeting in September.
Click
here to see the Empower website.
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Truck Permit Activity Takes a Big Drop
Advisory Board Okays Harvest Permit Option
North Dakota's drop in oil production and the decline in drilling activity is reflected in the number and cost of oversize truck permits issued in the months of April and May.
Janet Sanford, Manager of LoadPass Permits, said the number of oversize permits issued in April fell off 30 percent and associated revenue was down 50 percent compared to April 2019. Sanford said the numbers have fallen off even more in the month of May, with permit numbers down 60% and revenue off by 75% from last year's totals.
LoadPass, a uniform permitting system operated by WDEA for counties and cities in North Dakota, issued nearly 107,000 oversize permits in the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2019, generating almost $22.5 million to support local road construction. Sanford said the system was on pace to reach similar numbers in the current fiscal year, with more than 90,000 permits and $16.6 million in revenue through the end of April, but the downturn means LoadPass will fall well short of the 2018-19 total.
Sanford shared the numbers during this week's meeting of the LoadPass Advisory Committee. In other business, the board voted to recommend approval of a special harvest permit. It's currently a popular option among truckers in some eastern North Dakota counties, some of which have recently joined the LoadPass system. The harvest permit would be an option for counties to offer truckers, which would allow them to haul loads 10 percent heavier than the usual weight limit. The board gave counties three price options - $50, $100 or $500 - each of which would be valid for 30 days. The advisory board's recommendation will now go to the WDEA Executive Committee for final approval.
During its meeting Wednesday, the board also re-elected Billings County Sheriff Pat Rummel and Stark County Highway Superintendent Al Heiser to additional two-year terms on the board.
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All North Dakotans are Voting By Mail
Primary Ballots Must be Mailed by June 8th
The June primary election in North Dakota is exclusively vote-by-mail. Ballots must be postmarked by June 8, or dropped in a secure drop box location at the county office by 4:00 p.m on June 9.
“It is important for North Dakota voters to recognize there will be no in-person voting anywhere in the state for the June election," said Donnell Preskey, Government/Public Relations Specialist with the ND Association of Counties. "Voting by mail will be the only option across the state. Voters should take the steps necessary to vote using vote-by-mail to ensure their vote is counted.”
The North Dakota Secretary of State’s Office mailed ballot applications to 600,000 potential voters. Anyone who did not receive an application for a ballot can visit
vote.nd.gov to download and print their own, or contact the county auditor. Completed ballots should be returned to the county auditor with the voter's name and current address.
Ballots must be postmarked by June 8, or dropped at the county office by 4:00 p.m. on June 9.
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WDEA Offering Energy Scholarships
The Western Dakota Energy Association will award five $1,000 scholarships this fall to students in an energy-related field at a North Dakota college, university or technical school.
WDEA President Shannon Holter said the association is offering the scholarships to help the industry and western communities meet the workforce challenges historically experienced with oil industry growth.
“We recognize that North Dakota will see benefits from the oil industry only if it is able to attract the workforce it needs,” said Holter. “We want to do everything we can to encourage young people to explore the many opportunities for a rewarding career in the energy sector.”
Funding for the scholarship program is generated by sponsorships of WDEA’s annual meeting, as well as royalties from advertising in Basin Bits magazine.
Click
here to learn more about the selection criteria and how to apply.
Click
here to view or download an application form.
The application deadline is September 18, 2020. Scholarship winners will be announced at WDEA's annual meeting October 7-8 in Williston.
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NDPC Al Golden Scholarships
Application Process Now Open
The Al Golden Scholarship Program, sponsored by the North Dakota Petroleum Council through its philanthropic foundation, is now accepting applications for the 2020-21 school year.
The program will award up to nine $2,000 scholarships to students pursuing degrees or training in an energy-related field.
Scholarship winners are selected based on academic achievement, work or internship experience in the oil and natural gas industry or a demonstrated commitment to a qualified area of study. Students must be attending a North Dakota college or university and remain a full-time student for the 2020 fall semester and 2021 spring semester.
Applications must be submitted or postmarked by June 1, 2020. For qualifications and application requirements along with a list of previous scholarship award winners,
click here.
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COVID-19 Useful Information Resources
Here is a list of useful information resources for addressing both individual and family concerns along with pertinent information for business and employers related to managing the current coronavirus outbreak.
Information at these links is usually updated to be the most current to help focus on facts not fear, and preparation over panic.
North Dakota SMART Re-start
North Dakota Information
U.S. Small Business Administration
Small Business Loans
Center for Disease Control & Prevention
U.S Department of Agriculture
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
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Quick Connect
- Electric and natural gas utilities warn PSC of new pandemic-related costs -- Bismarck Tribune
- Environmental council meeting could upend Montana's limit on TENORM -- Williston Herald
- Coal Creek isn't victim of nat gas; it's being replaced by $1B in wind subsidies -- SayAnything
- Pandemic unemployment programs both yield more than 12,000 claims -- KFYR-TV
- Appropriations chair re-election bid highlights contested legislative races -- Bismarck Tribune
- Primary election to narrow field for ND state school superintendent -- Minot Daily News
- Trump weighs in on ND race, tweeting endorsement for treasurer candidate -- Bismarck Tribune
- North Dakota Capitol, other offices, to open one month after businesses -- Associated Press
- State Capitol building making pandemic-related changes before employees return -- KXMB-TV
- Order from Gov. Burgum waives budget reserve limit for school districts -- Williston Herald
- ND University System task force launched on campus reopening -- Bismarck Tribune
- By the numbers: District 8's study on dissolution and reorganization -- Williston Herald
- Agreement on school attendance seems solid, but school boards still at odds -- Williston Herald
- National Weather Service proposing to simplify forecasting, warning terms -- Minot Daily News
- Badlands Human Services Center to move as DSU plans Pulver renovations -- Dickinson Press
- Dry, drought conditions persist in North Dakota most especially in the west -- Minot Daily News
- Leaders ask USDOT to reconsider allowing Delta to suspend service -- Williston Herald
- New Williston Basin International Airport nearing completion of final projects -- KXMB-TV
- Williston police & fire depts among first in ND to implement SIRN systems -- Williston Herald
- Lasting contango in oil: market spread to outlast supply-demand imbalance -- Reuters
- Federal Court in Montana strikes down 440 oil and gas leases across the West -- The Hill
- Oil prices steady, awaiting confirmation of surprise U.S. inventory build -- Reuters
- Covid-19 exposes the folly of push for renewable energy investment -- Real Clear Energy
- EIA: Natural gas prices could double next year with higher demand -- Rigzone
- Road Trip Tracker shows sharp holiday weekend rebound in summer driving -- Rigzone
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Factoid of the Week
British thermal units (Btu), a measure of heat energy, is used to compare different types of energy to each other. In 2019, total U.S. primary energy consumption was 100.2 quadrillion Btu. Eighty percent of the energy was produced by fossil fuels -- 37% from oil, 32% from natural gas and 11% from coal. Renewables contributed just 11%, about 1/3 of which was wind & solar generation.
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June 1
Bismarck
June 2
Bismarck/online
June 4
Bismarck
June 9
Statewide
June 9
Bismarck/Online
June 18
Bismarck
June 19
Bismarck
June 19
Williston
June 23
Bismarck
June 25
Bismarck
August 20-21
Williston
September 1-3
Bismarck
September 30 - October 1
Bismarck
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Oil prices and rig count
May 29, 2020
WTI Crude: $35.49
Brent Crude: $35.33
Natural Gas: $1.85
North Dakota Active Oil Rigs: 10 (dn 3)
5/29/2019 -- 64 rigs
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Geoff Simon
Editor/Executive Director
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