The Ukraine Crisis - The Other Side
By Raphael Lapin
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. The key is Russian national interest.” Although these words were uttered by Sir Winston Churchill in October 1939, they might as well have been voiced today.
The talks between Russia and the United States about the Ukraine crisis far has resulted in a stalemate. The good news is that both sides have agreed to continued dialogue. The final outcome can either be the catalyst for East-West relations to improve which will advance global security, or East-West relations to further deteriorate, which could potentially strengthen the entente between Russia and China. For President Biden, if managed with wisdom and skilled diplomacy, it is not too late for an opportunity to salvage his presidency from diminished ratings, and redeem him from what many believe to be the Afghanistan fiasco.
U.S. politicians, media, and news outlets are marching to a war cry. They are demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraws all troops from the Ukrainian border and are threatening an unmitigatedly tighter sanction regime should Russia choose not to comply. Again, U.S. hubris, media sensationalism, a collective national mindset still stuck in the Cold War, and an out-for-blood, sports-minded public hoping for a “team victory”, is driving US foreign policy, rather than skilled diplomacy, sound judgement and effective negotiation.
As long as we insist on seeing this crisis entirely and exclusively from a U.S. perspective, we don’t stand even a negligible chance of resolution. As Sir Winston Churchill said, the key to unlock this enigma are Russian national interests. To negotiate effectively, it is imperative that we make every effort to uncover, acknowledge and deeply understand those interests.
In this essay, I examine how Russia perceives Ukrainian tensions. This broader perspective will allow us to be better equipped and qualified to jointly design solutions that will meet their concerns while at the same time meeting U.S. interests.
