This presentation will analyze Belarus’s role in Russian aggression against Ukraine. It will highlight the impact of the war on the internal situation in Russia and Belarus as well as on global security. Does the war against Ukraine signal a weak attempt by Russia to restore its former glory before an inevitable decline and possible decay? Can Russia’s poor military performance lead to serious changes in Russian domestic politics as happened after Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War in 1856 and the loss of the Russian fleet in the naval war with Japan in 1905? Can we find any comparison between Russian aggression against Ukraine and China’s war against Vietnam in 1979, which later prompted the launch of modernization? In Belarus, how has the perception of Russia changed among members of the bureaucracy, military and law enforcement agencies? And how will a faltering Putin affect Belarus’s internal politics? Can the fate of three countries be linked again, though in ways that differ from the past?
Speaker:
Dr. Valery V. Tsepkalo ran for president of Belarus in 2020 and had to leave the country as a result. From 2005 to 2017 he was the founder and leader of Belarus’ Hi-Tech Park, one of the country’s most successful technology ventures which helped to jump start Belarus’s high-tech industry. From 2002-2005, he served as an advisor to the Belarusan president in the area of science and technology. From 1997-2002 he was Belarus’s ambassador to the U.S.
Moderator:
Robert Orttungis a Research Professor at IERES and the Director of Research for Sustainable GW. He is editor of Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Demokratization and co-editor of the
Russian Analytical Digest. His research focuses on issues of urban sustainability in the Arctic.
This event is on the record and open to the media.
The Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES)
Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
1957 E Street, NW / Suite 412 / Washington, DC 20052
Tel (202) 994-6340 / Fax (202) 994-5436 / Email ieresgwu@gwu.edu
