Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Do you begin to see, then, what kind of world we are creating? It is the exact opposite of the stupid hedonistic Utopias that the old reformers imagined. A world of fear and treachery and torment, a world which will grow not less but more merciless as it refines itself. Progress in our world will be progress toward more pain.”

- George Orwell

“The happiness in your life depends upon the quality of your thoughts.”

- Marcus Aurelius

“Fear is the main source of superstition, and one of the main sources of cruelty. To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom.”

- Bertrand Russell

1. FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration’s National Security Strategy | The White House

2. N. Korean leader inspects long-range cruise missile launches by 'tactical nuke' units

3. Yoon says he is looking carefully at extended deterrence options

4. The Guardian view on North Korea’s missile tests: growing risks, reduced response

5. U.S. officials met S. Korean battery makers in Seoul over IRA: sources

6. ‘Denuke declaration should be scrapped if N. Korea pushes with nuclear testing’

7. Expert calls Kim Jong Un’s cater waiter outfit a sign of aggression

8. Kim Jong Un issues new nuclear warning as U.S. boosts deterrence in Korea

9. Yoon-Biden Relationship Is Key to Overcoming Problems in Alliance

10. North Korea’s Kim Guides Missile Test in Latest Show of Military Might

11. North's cruise missile tests fly under radar of sanctions

12. North Korea may have photoshopped aircraft into propaganda images

13. Seoul loses seat on UN Human Rights Council

14. N. Korean security agency’s surveillance research center renamed and expanded

1. FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration’s National Security Strategy | The White House

Access the new 48 page NSS here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf

Some initial comments.

The emphasis on alliances is good.

I will receive criticism for this but "outmaneuvering geopolitical competitors" is a directive to conduct effective and superior political warfare. This excerpt from the first paragraph provides sufficient guidance for me.

Page 2. The 2022 National Security Strategy outlines how my Administration will seize this decisive decade to advance America’s vital interests, position the United States to outmaneuver our geopolitical competitors, tackle shared challenges, and set our world firmly on a path toward a brighter and more hopeful tomorrow.

I would also add that effective integrated deterrence requires a political warfare strategy.

Spoiler alert for Korea watchers;

Page 12. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to expand its illicit nuclear weapons and missile programs.

Page 38. We will seek sustained diplomacy with North Korea to make tangible progress toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, while strengthening extended deterrence in the face of North Korean weapons of mass destruction and missile threats.

While the criticism has begun on social media I really do not think much more is necessary. In fact sometimes less is more. Yes it would have been better to specifically state a human rights up front approach north Korea but if you look at the 20 times human rights is addressed in the NSS there is sufficient guidance and justification for a human rights upfront approach. Some excerpts:

Page 6. This means that the foundational principles of self-determination, territorial integrity, and political independence must be respected, international institutions must be strengthened, countries must be free to determine their own foreign policy choices, information must be allowed to flow freely, universal human rights must be upheld, and the global economy must operate on a level playing field and provide opportunity for all.

Page. 8. Americans will support universal human rights and stand in solidarity with those beyond our shores who seek freedom and dignity, just as we continue the critical work of ensuring equity and equal treatment under law at home. We will work to strengthen democracy around the world because democratic governance consistently outperforms authoritarianism in protecting human dignity, leads to more prosperous and resilient societies, creates stronger and more reliable economic and security partners for the United States, and encourages a peaceful world order. In particular, we will take steps to show that democracies deliver—not only by ensuring the United States and its democratic partners lead on the hardest challenges of our time, but by working with other democratic governments and the private sector to help emerging democracies show tangible benefits to their own populations. We do not, however, believe that governments and societies everywhere must be remade in America’s image for us to be secure.

Note the above excerpt provides the foundation for a superior political warfare campaign against north Korea.

Page 16. To make our coalitions as inclusive as possible, we will also work with any country that supports a rules-based order while we continue to press all partners to respect and advance democracy and human rights.

Page 17. These democratic allies and partners are also essential to supporting democracy and human rights around the world. Actions to bolster democracy and defend human rights are critical to the United States not only because doing so is consistent with our values, but also because respect for democracy and support for human rights promotes global peace, security, and prosperity.

Page 18. Together with our allies and partners, we are also holding states accountable for violations and abuses of human rights, including against ethnic and religious minorities, treating the fight against corruption as the core national security interest it is, countering transnational repression, and standing with people around the world on the front lines of the fight for dignity, equality and justice.

Why the document does not include north Korea here I cannot say:

Page 41. Together, we will support effective democratic governance responsive to citizen needs, defend human rights and combat gender-based violence, tackle corruption, and protect against external interference or coercion, including from the PRC, Russia, or Iran.

All one needs to do is read the reports at the Committee for Human Rights in North KOrea to understand the crimes being committed against women, among the many other crimes against humanity. https://www.hrnk.org/publications/hrnk-publications.php

Despite the criticism above and the critiques we will hear in coming days, as a former planner I find a lot of substance I could use to generate supporting campaign plans to conduct effective political warfare at the national level in the gray zone of strategic competition that is taking place around the world and especially in the Asia Pacific (INDOPACIFIC). There is no perfect "strategy" and the purists will ask why there is no clear articulation of the traditional ends, ways, and means, assumptions, constraints, etc, (but no NSS has really ever laid out a strategy IAW the generally accepted "doctrine" even though there is no official such doctrine. The question is whether it provides sufficient guidance and objectives (aspirational and spectific) to develop supporting campaign plans and whatever we are calling mission strategic plans at the country teams at our embassies around the world. I find it sufficient.

FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration’s National Security Strategy | The White House

whitehouse.gov · by The White House · October 12, 2022

Read the full strategy here

President Biden’s National Security Strategy outlines how the United States will advance our vital interests and pursue a free, open, prosperous, and secure world. We will leverage all elements of our national power to outcompete our strategic competitors; tackle shared challenges; and shape the rules of the road.

The Strategy is rooted in our national interests: to protect the security of the American people, to expand economic opportunity, and to realize and defend the democratic values at the heart of the American way of life. In pursuit of these objectives, we will:

Invest in the underlying sources and tools of American power and influence;
Build the strongest possible coalition of nations to enhance our collective influence to shape the global strategic environment and to solve shared challenges; and
Modernize and strengthen our military so it is equipped for the era of strategic competition.

COOPERATION IN THE AGE OF COMPETITION

In the early years of this decisive decade, the terms of geopolitical competition will be set while the window of opportunity to deal with shared challenges will narrow. We cannot compete successfully to shape the international order unless we have an affirmative plan to tackle shared challenges, and we cannot do that unless we recognize how heightened competition affects cooperation and act accordingly.

Strategic Competition. The most pressing strategic challenge we face as we pursue a free, open, prosperous, and secure world are from powers that layer authoritarian governance with a revisionist foreign policy.

We will effectively compete with the People’s Republic of China, which is the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the capability to reshape the international order, while constraining a dangerous Russia.
Strategic competition is global, but we will avoid the temptation to view the world solely through a competitive lens, and engage countries on their own terms.

Shared Challenges. While this competition is underway, people all over the world are struggling to cope with the effects of shared challenges that cross borders—whether it is climate change, food insecurity, communicable diseases, or inflation. These shared challenges are not marginal issues that are secondary to geopolitics. They are at the very core of national and international security and must be treated as such.

We are building the strongest and broadest coalition of nations to enhance our collective capacity to solve these challenges and deliver for the American people and those around the world.
To preserve and increase international cooperation in an age of competition, we will pursue a dual-track approach. On one track, we will work with any country, including our competitors, willing to constructively address shared challenges within the rules-based international order and while working to strengthen international institutions. On the other track, we will deepen cooperation with democracies at the core of our coalition, creating a latticework of strong, resilient, and mutually reinforcing relationships that prove democracies can deliver for their people and the world.

INVESTING AT HOME

The Biden-Harris Administration has broken down the dividing line between domestic and foreign policy because our strength at home and abroad are inextricably linked. The challenges of our age, from strategic competition to climate change, require us to make investments that sharpen our competitive edge and bolster our resilience.

Our democracy is at the core of who we are and is a continuous work in progress. Our system of government enshrines the rule of law and strives to protect the equality and dignity of all individuals. As we strive to live up to our ideals, to reckon with and remedy our shortcomings, we will inspire others around the world to do the same.
We are complementing the innovative power of the private sector with a modern industrial strategy that makes strategic public investments in our workforce, strategic sectors, and supply chains, especially in critical and emerging technologies.
A powerful U.S. military helps advance and safeguard vital U.S. national interests by backstopping diplomacy, confronting aggression, deterring conflict, projecting strength, and protecting the American people and their economic interests. We are modernizing our military, pursuing advanced technologies, and investing in our defense workforce to best position America to defend our homeland, our allies, partners, and interests overseas, and our values across the globe.

OUR ENDURING LEADERSHIP

The United States will continue to lead with strength and purpose, leveraging our national advantages and the power of our alliances and partnerships. We have a tradition of transforming both domestic and foreign challenges into opportunities to spur reform and rejuvenation at home. The idea that we should compete with major autocratic powers to shape the international order enjoys broad support that is bipartisan at home and deepening abroad.

Our alliances and partnerships around the world are our most important strategic asset that we will deepen and modernize for the benefit of our national security.
We place a premium on growing the connective tissue on technology, trade and security between our democratic allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific and Europe because we recognize that they are mutually reinforcing and the fates of the two regions are intertwined.
We are charting new economic arrangements to deepen economic engagements with our partners and shaping the rules of the road to level the playing field and enable American workers and businesses—and those of partners and allies around the world—to thrive.
As we deepen our partnerships around the world, we will look for more democracy, not less, to shape the future. We recognize that while autocracy is at its core brittle, democracy’s inherent capacity to transparently course-correct enables resilience and progress.

AFFIRMATIVE ENGAGEMENT

The United States is a global power with global interests; we are stronger in each region because of our engagement in the others. We are pursuing an affirmative agenda to advance peace and security and to promote prosperity in every region.

As an Indo-Pacific power, the United States has a vital interest in realizing a region that is open, interconnected, prosperous, secure, and resilient. We are ambitious because we know that we and our allies and partners hold a common vision for the region’s future.
With a relationship rooted in shared democratic values, common interests, and historic ties, the transatlantic relationship is a vital platform on which many other elements of our foreign policy are built. To effectively pursue a common global agenda, we are broadening and deepening the transatlantic bond.
The Western Hemisphere directly impacts the United States more than any other region so we will continue to revive and deepen those partnerships to advance economic resilience, democratic stability, and citizen security.
A more integrated Middle East that empowers our allies and partners will advance regional peace and prosperity, while reducing the resource demands the region makes on the United States over the long term.
In Africa, the dynamism, innovation, and demographic growth of the region render it central to addressing complex global problems.

###

whitehouse.gov · by The White House · October 12, 2022

2. N. Korean leader inspects long-range cruise missile launches by 'tactical nuke' units

(2nd LD) N. Korean leader inspects long-range cruise missile launches by 'tactical nuke' units | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 13, 2022

(ATTN: ADDS comments from unification ministry official in paras 7-8; REPLACES photos)

By Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Oct. 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected the test-firing of long-range strategic cruise missiles involving units operating "tactical nukes" earlier this week aimed at strengthening the country's war deterrence, Pyongyang's state media said Thursday.

On Wednesday, the North fired two long-range strategic cruise missiles that flew for "10,234 seconds along an oval and pattern-8 flight orbits in the sky above the West Sea of Korea and clearly hit the target 2,000 km away," the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language report.

The launches were conducted in order to further enhance the "combat efficiency and might" of the missiles deployed at the units of the Korean People's Army for the operation of tactical nukes and reconfirm the reliability of the overall operational application system, according to the KCNA.

Kim expressed satisfaction over the "high reaction capabilities of our nuclear combat forces which proved again their full preparedness for actual war to bring the enemies under their control at a blow through the unconditional, mobile, precise and powerful counterstrike by any weapon system," the KCNA said.

Stressing that the test-fire is another "clear warning to the enemies" and a demonstration of the country's deterrence capabilities, he called for the continued expansion of the "operational sphere of the nuclear strategic armed forces" to deter any crucial military and war crisis.

Kim also urged all efforts for the "endless and accelerating" development of the national nuclear combat armed forces.

South Korea's unification ministry urged the North to immediately cease its provocations and change its approach toward President Yoon Suk-yeol's "audacious initiative" to help rebuild its economy in return for denuclearization steps.

"In coordination with the relevant authorities, we are keeping close tabs on North Korea with a sense of alertness under the view that the current security situation is grave," a ministry official told reporters on the customary condition of anonymity.

North Korea has been ratcheting up tensions on the Korean Peninsula recently, with seven rounds of provocative ballistic missile launches in just two weeks.

The KCNA earlier reported that the North conducted an exercise of its tactical nuclear operation units from Sept. 25 to Oct. 9 in response to joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States.

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 13, 2022

3. Yoon says he is looking carefully at extended deterrence options

Excerpts:

"As I said the other day, there are diverse opinions across our nation and in the United States regarding extended deterrence, so I am listening to them carefully and looking carefully at various possibilities," Yoon told reporters when asked to comment on the report.

"I'd like you to understand that it's difficult for a president to openly confirm or give a clear answer on such security issues," he added.

(2nd LD) Yoon says he is looking carefully at extended deterrence options | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 13, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with presidential official's remarks, background in paras 7-10)

By Lee Haye-ah

SEOUL, Oct. 13 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol said Thursday he is looking carefully at "various possibilities" on how to further strengthen U.S. extended deterrence against North Korea's growing nuclear threat.

The remark came after a Chosun Ilbo newspaper report that South Korea has asked the United States to have strategic assets, such as nuclear aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines, deployed to waters around the Korean Peninsula on a rotational basis around the clock in the event of a nuclear test by the North.

"As I said the other day, there are diverse opinions across our nation and in the United States regarding extended deterrence, so I am listening to them carefully and looking carefully at various possibilities," Yoon told reporters when asked to comment on the report.

"I'd like you to understand that it's difficult for a president to openly confirm or give a clear answer on such security issues," he added.

Calls have grown for the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea or the country's own nuclear armament as the North has sharply escalated threats with a series of missile launches that Pyongyang said simulated nuclear missile strikes on the South.

Concerns have also grown that the North could carry out its seventh nuclear test at any time.

A presidential official later told reporters he had little to add to the president's remarks.

"What I can say for now is that we are consulting, discussing and devising all the means and all the measures to dramatically strengthen the extended deterrence against all possibilities," the official said.

Extended deterrence refers to the deployment of the full range of U.S. military assets, including nuclear capabilities, to defend an ally.

South Korea has also grappled with economic challenges, including rising inflation, which led the Bank of Korea to raise the benchmark rate to 3 percent from the current 2.5 percent Wednesday, the first time in about 10 years that the rate was raised to the 3 percent range.

"It's true that many people and businesspeople are concerned about the volatility of financial markets and the uncertainty in the real economy, but the crisis should neither be exaggerated nor neglected," Yoon said during the informal Q&A session Thursday.

"It's important that the people don't feel too intimidated in these circumstances and normally carry out their necessary expenditures and consumption, and businesses carry out the needed investments," he added.

Yoon claimed the government is doing its best to manage the real economy and ensure the foreign currency reserve is not wasted.

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 13, 2022

4. The Guardian view on North Korea’s missile tests: growing risks, reduced response

Conclusion:

The North’s belligerence and capabilities are one reason why Japan’s prime minister says he is reshaping its security strategy. South Korea’s battered confidence in the US umbrella might not withstand another Trump or Trump-like administration. Public support for an independent nuclear deterrent now stands at more than 70%. While there is so far very limited political interest, the issue is increasingly under discussion; Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be a gamechanger, especially if the US response was judged inadequate. Others have suggested the redeployment of US tactical assets to the peninsula, even more likely to provoke Beijing’s fury and escalate the ongoing crisis. A better option might be closer multilateral cooperation on deterrence with Japan and Australia. Above all, attempts to talk to North Korea must continue – however vain they appear.

The Guardian view on North Korea’s missile tests: growing risks, reduced response | Editorial

Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities are increasing, but there is limited international capacity for or interest in addressing them

The Guardian · by Editorial · October 12, 2022

The details vary, but the pattern is immediately recognisable: a volley of missiles, followed by chilling new rhetoric. This time, North Korean state media said the recent flurry of tests simulated strikes on South Korean and US targets with tactical nuclear weapons. It is likely to conduct a seventh nuclear test soon. Pyongyang is not about to reduce Seoul or San Francisco to a sea of ashes: the leadership is not suicidal. But its capabilities are steadily growing; and so are the risks of missteps, perhaps especially in light of its pandemic isolation. Last month, the country hardened its position with a new law enshrining its right to “automatically” use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself, and stressing that its nuclear status is “irreversible”.

The prospects for addressing the issue have rarely looked dimmer. Kim Jong-un is usually expert at grabbing attention. But Joe Biden’s lies elsewhere. True, the trip to Seoul last month by the US vice-president, Kamala Harris, was his administration’s third major visit this year. Recent trilateral exercises by the US, Japan and South Korea sparked the latest missile launches; the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, which took part in those drills, recently returned to waters near the peninsula. But the US is focused on war in Ukraine and the related energy and cost of living crisis, along with strategic rivalry with China and its myriad domestic problems. Pyongyang is way down the agenda.

The possibility of North Korea trusting the US – always extremely low – seems nonexistent after the highs and lows of its dealings with Donald Trump, who also left the South with diminished faith in the US security guarantee. Beijing and Moscow will not support sanctions again: Mr Trump’s embrace of Mr Kim saw Xi Jinping, who had previously disdained his youthful counterpart, forced to hug him closer. China now appears willing to funnel in aid with few conditions. Russia is hardly going to condemn North Korea at the UN when Pyongyang is one of its few active backers over Ukraine.

In South Korea, the failure of former president Moon Jae-in’s attempts at a thaw has been followed by his conservative successor Yoon Suk-yeol’s “audacious initiative” of economic aid in return for abandoning the nuclear programme: widely seen as a non-starter even before Pyongyang’s rebuff. The feasibility of denuclearisation, always extremely improbable, seems to have vanished, barring unforeseen and unlikely developments such as regime collapse. The regime has taken the lessons of Iraq and Libya to heart, and US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has only reinforced its beliefs. Even arms controls talks look very distant.

The North’s belligerence and capabilities are one reason why Japan’s prime minister says he is reshaping its security strategy. South Korea’s battered confidence in the US umbrella might not withstand another Trump or Trump-like administration. Public support for an independent nuclear deterrent now stands at more than 70%. While there is so far very limited political interest, the issue is increasingly under discussion; Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be a gamechanger, especially if the US response was judged inadequate. Others have suggested the redeployment of US tactical assets to the peninsula, even more likely to provoke Beijing’s fury and escalate the ongoing crisis. A better option might be closer multilateral cooperation on deterrence with Japan and Australia. Above all, attempts to talk to North Korea must continue – however vain they appear.

The Guardian · by Editorial · October 12, 2022

5. U.S. officials met S. Korean battery makers in Seoul over IRA: sources

U.S. officials met S. Korean battery makers in Seoul over IRA: sources | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · October 13, 2022

SEOUL, Oct. 13 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) officials recently visited South Korea and met with senior officials of major battery makers here to discuss concerns raised by Seoul over a new U.S. law on electric vehicle subsidies, industry sources said Thursday.

Their meetings with LG Energy Solution Ltd., Samsung SDI Co., and SK On Co. came as South Korean auto and related industries have raised serious concerns over the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed by U.S. President Joe Biden in August, which calls for giving subsidies to EV buyers only if the cars were assembled in North America.

The law will also require EVs to be equipped with batteries made with a certain portion of minerals mined or processed in the U.S., or countries or regions that have free trade agreements with Washington. The required portion of the minerals will increase over the years.

Battery makers rely heavily on China for the refining and smelting of core minerals used in battery manufacturing.

"It was not about drawing conclusions but listening to opinions about the IRA," an industry source said, without elaborating further.

South Korea has been making all-out efforts, both on the government and business fronts, to create exceptions for Korean-made EVs, saying the clauses will discriminate against Korean companies, including top automakers Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp., along with the battery manufacturers.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · October 13, 2022

6. ‘Denuke declaration should be scrapped if N. Korea pushes with nuclear testing’

This agreement give the ROK the moral high ground and should be part of an information and influence campaign.

‘Denuke declaration should be scrapped if N. Korea pushes with nuclear testing’

donga.com

Posted October. 13, 2022 08:00,

Updated October. 13, 2022 08:00

‘Denuke declaration should be scrapped if N. Korea pushes with nuclear testing’. October. 13, 2022 08:00. by Su-Young Hong gaea@donga.com.

As North Korea increases provocation to the South by legalizing nuclear energy and holding training for tactical nuclear-operating units, the ruling party has suggested the need to bring back tactical nuclear weapons previously relocated by the U.S., highlighting the need for the balance of terror.

“If North Korea pushes forward with a seventh nuclear testing, the September 19 South-North Korea’s Military Agreement signed during the former Moon Jae-in administration and the 1991 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be scrapped as well,” the ruling party’s Emergency Response Committee Chairman Jeong Jin-seok said in a Facebook posting on Wednesday.

Some say that Jeong’s remarks suggest that South Korea should request the U.S. to relocate the location of tactical nuclear weapons if North Korea pushes forward with the seventh nuclear test. This is because U.S. forces in South Korea withdrew all the tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Korea before the joint declaration in 1991. “It is quite illogical to connect the comment with the relocation of nuclear weapons,” Jeong told reporters.

The Presidential Office is reportedly seeking all options to counter North Korea, as it considers the situation surrounding the peninsula quite grave, unlike when Yoon first took office. “We inevitably consider all options in preparation for North Korea’s possible nuclear testing,” said a high-ranking government official.

Experts say that it would not be easy to bring back nuclear weapons, given the public opinions of the U.S. and the international community. “We aim to achieve complete and verifiable denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. We still believe that issues can be resolved through diplomacy,” said Coordinator John Kirby for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council. The remarks are considered to highlight the aim for denuclearization and indirectly hint negative position on relocating nuclear weapons on the peninsula.

한국어

donga.com

7. Expert calls Kim Jong Un’s cater waiter outfit a sign of aggression

Bruce Klingner: "Kim is dressed to aggress."

Expert calls Kim Jong Un’s cater waiter outfit a sign of aggression

militarytimes.com · by Sarah Sicard · October 12, 2022

North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un is known for his offbeat sartorial choices.

As the dictator continues adding to tensions in the region, having conducted at least seven missile tests in the past few weeks and more than 40 this year, one expert weighing in on CNN went as far as to suggest Kim’s newest attire is indicative of his overall military strategy.

Wearing a flowy white button-down shirt and black slacks on one occasion, and a white shirt and safari hat on another, Kim is dressed to aggress, according to Bruce Klingner, a Heritage Foundation senior research fellow for northeast Asia.

Kim Jong Un is the patron saint of hilarious photos

Kim Jong Swoon put on a show once again this week.

“He’s bold, and he’s proud, and he’s involved in this,” Klingner told CNN’s Brian Todd. “The tactical nuclear weapons program is his.”

And while Kim looks more like an out of place cater waiter hired to serve shrimp cocktail at an annoying cousin’s second wedding, a change up in fashion, like getting bangs after being dumped, could be interpreted as a sign that something is amiss. After all, the fact that Kim’s saber-rattling has increased is worth noting.

“What it could be is to try to drive the U.S. back to the negotiating table in a more supplicant way,” Klingner added. “Maybe now, even if they say they don’t want any kind of dialogue, they’d be willing to accept offers from the United States.”

Observation Post is the Military Times one-stop shop for all things off-duty. Stories may reflect author observations.

About Sarah Sicard

Sarah Sicard is a Senior Editor with Military Times. She previously served as the Digitial Editor of Military Times and the Army Times Editor. Other work can be found at National Defense Magazine, Task & Purpose, and Defense News.

8. Kim Jong Un issues new nuclear warning as U.S. boosts deterrence in Korea

Excerpts:

The spokesperson also noted the reactivation of the high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group, which met last month.

"We also committed to further strengthen deterrence by reinforcing the combined defense posture and reiterated our joint commitment to a conditions-based transition of wartime operational control," the spokesperson added.

The U.S. and South Korea have also intensified joint training as well, and have exercised with Japan as well, angering North Korea, which also condemned Biden's decision to send an aircraft carrier strike group to the region.

The White House briefly addressed North Korea in the new 48-page National Security Strategy released earlier Wednesday.

"We will seek sustained diplomacy with North Korea to make tangible progress toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the document said, "while strengthening extended deterrence in the face of North Korean weapons of mass destruction and missile threats."

Kim Jong Un issues new nuclear warning as U.S. boosts deterrence in Korea

BY TOM O'CONNOR ON 10/12/22 AT 6:31 PM EDT

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · October 12, 2022

North Korea has broadcast a new warning from Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un following a series of missile launches that have severely raised tensions across the divided peninsula and the surrounding region as the U.S. and its allies bolster their own military posture.

The official Korean Central News Agency reported Wednesday, early Thursday local time, that Kim led the recent testing of a "long-range strategic cruise missile" in what he called yet another "warning to the enemy" and "a practical test of the absolute credibility and combat power of our nation's war deterrent."

He said the test "demonstrated a thorough readiness to subdue the enemy with unconditional, maneuverable, precise and forceful counter-attacks" and said the country "must continue to expand the space for the operation of the nuclear strategic armed forces so that we can resolutely suppress any grave military crisis or war crisis that comes at any time and fully seize the initiative."

The remarks came a day after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol addressed North Korea's military capabilities by saying that Pyongyang "has nothing to gain from nuclear weapons."

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is seen clapping along with officials in response to another missile test in this photo published October 12, 2022. North Korea on Wednesday issued another "warning to the enemy" in the form of additional testing. Rodong Sinmun

Yoon has faced pressure from conservatives toward scrapping a 2018 military agreement with Kim forged by his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, at a time when the two countries were pursuing historic peace and reconciliation talks alongside the U.S. Tensions have since prevailed and no major diplomatic initiatives have emerged in three years.

Some politicians have even called for South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea (ROK), to ask the U.S. to redeploy nuclear weapons, reversing a withdrawal that took place three decades ago.

A State Department spokesperson, when asked about the possibility of the U.S. taking such an action, told Newsweek that President Joe Biden has "affirmed the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to the ROK using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities."

The spokesperson also noted the reactivation of the high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group, which met last month.

"We also committed to further strengthen deterrence by reinforcing the combined defense posture and reiterated our joint commitment to a conditions-based transition of wartime operational control," the spokesperson added.

The U.S. and South Korea have also intensified joint training as well, and have exercised with Japan as well, angering North Korea, which also condemned Biden's decision to send an aircraft carrier strike group to the region.

The White House briefly addressed North Korea in the new 48-page National Security Strategy released earlier Wednesday.

"We will seek sustained diplomacy with North Korea to make tangible progress toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the document said, "while strengthening extended deterrence in the face of North Korean weapons of mass destruction and missile threats."

Update 10/12/22, 8:15 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information and background.

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · October 12, 2022

9. Yoon-Biden Relationship Is Key to Overcoming Problems in Alliance

Conclusion:

There should be no illusions that any of these solutions are easy. And the U.S. will try to address South Korean concerns, but with an understanding that these problems are short-term ones, while the benefits of the IRA to South Korea are real and will come to fruition within only a couple of years.

Yoon-Biden Relationship Is Key to Overcoming Problems in Alliance

english.chosun.com

October 13, 2022 13:42

Victor Cha

For policy makers, every alliance is measured by its "hardware" and "software." The hardware is the vast policy apparatus of bilateral consultations and dialogues across scores of different agencies involving hundreds of individuals on both sides that take place annually, biannually, and quarterly. For decades, the hardware of the U.S.-South Korea alliance was predominantly military, but has recently expanded to cover trade, investment, global health, development assistance, supply chains, among other areas. Equally important, however, is the "software" of the alliance. By this I mean that at the very highest levels, the alliance is human and very personal. Leaders strive to ensure that they have good rapport and do not do things to offend one another.

Ideally the best situation is when the hardware and the software of the alliance are both good. That is, there is overlap on policy objectives, and there is strong personal rapport between the leaders. Even when the hardware is not good, a personal friendship between the leaders can help to overcome policy differences. However, when the software goes bad, it can set back an alliance for months and even damage any policy agreements.

An example of bad software occurred in the first encounters between Kim Dae-jung and George W. Bush in February 2002. Pressing for an early summit with the newly-elected president, Kim came to Washington and gave a long explanation why the U.S. should adopt South Korea's "sunshine" policy in dealing with North Korea. Bush listened politely but was not pleased at being lectured to, and this set relations back from the very start.

Presidents Yoon Suk-yeol and Joe Biden appear to have gotten along swimmingly at their first summit meeting in May 2022. The hardware is good in that there is a broad agreement on a range of policy issues including North Korean denuclearization, a free and open Indo-Pacific, U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation, supply chain security, global health, clean 5G networks, the Chips 4 alliance and development assistance. Even more important regarding the alliance's software is the two leaders established a good personal rapport, with Biden telling Yoon, "I have deep trust in you."

But after that positive start, the software may have developed some "glitches" as a result of small missteps on both sides. First, following the May 2022 summit in Seoul, a large, high-level delegation of South Koreans traveled to Washington in late July for the dedication of the new Wall of Remembrance at the Korean War memorial. While the Yoon administration sent the minister of defense, minister of veteran affairs and several CEOs of South Korean conglomerates who financially supported the monument, the Biden administration was represented by only the husband of Vice President Kamala Harris. This mismatch of protocol was not perceived positively by South Koreans.

Then a little less than two weeks later, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Seoul directly after her controversial visit to Taiwan to meet President Tsai Ing-wen. No one from the Yoon administration met the third highest ranking official in the U.S. government at the airport, which apparently irked Pelosi. And while the Yoon administration's explanation for the president's not meeting Pelosi was due to a schedule conflict -- Yoon was officially on holiday -- the public perception in Washington D.C. was that Seoul ducked out of a meeting because it did not want to upset China.

About 10 days after the Pelosi debacle, Yoon delivered the traditional Liberation Day speech on Aug. 15, which was notable for its emphasis on improving relations with Japan and his commitment to improving trilateral cooperation among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo. Domestically, it was a big risk for Yoon to use such language on such a sensitive, taboo topic. Yet, the speech received little attention in Washington, D.C. and no public acknowledgment from high level officials in the Biden administration.

Instead, the following day, Biden signed into law the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act which among other measures scraps a $7500 tax subsidy for electric cars not made in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico, directly affecting Hyundai and Kia. For South Koreans, it is unimaginable that the United States could carry out such discriminatory measures against South Korea after the multi-billion dollar investments by South Korean conglomerates SK, Samsung, and Hyundai pledged last May in Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas. Moreover the IRA measures for South Korean vehicles are inconsistent with the bilateral free trade agreement.

Then on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last week, Yoon was caught in a "hot mic" moment making a denigrating comment about Biden and the U.S. Congress. Yoon later denied that the remarks were directed at the United States, but the incident has created a furor in the South Korean press and the opposition party.

This is a remarkable series of events that has the potential to undo the successes of the May 2022 summit. Will it damage the personal friendship between the two leaders?

First, I do not think the "hot mic" moment will hurt relations with the U.S. While it has become a big political story in South Korea, it has received almost no coverage in the American media, and U.S. officials barely noticed it. Vice President Harris said as much last week during her visit to South Korea, when she commented that the U.S. "does not care at all" about the issue.

Second, the ability to find a resolution to the IRA issue will be understandably harder, but the good software in the alliance -- the friendship between Biden and Yoon -- will be an important factor in charting a path forward. I do not think that there was any intentional targeting by Biden of South Korea with the IRA. This is a domestic piece of legislation and not under the purview of the national security team at the White House responsible for the alliance.

Third, U.S. policymakers probably calculated that on balance the IRA provides substantially more benefits to South Korea than losses. For example, the IRA's tax credits for companies that produce EV batteries in the U.S. will substantially benefit SK, LG, and Samsung's planned joint venture investments in this sector in the U.S. These cost advantages, which are not extended to Chinese components, will significantly favor South Korean EV batteries not just in the U.S. but globally. In addition, the IRA's restrictions on the use of Chinese components will prevent U.S. carmakers from taking advantages of the subsidies before 2025, when Hyundai's Georgia plant is scheduled to come online.

One solution would be to revise the legislation to extend tax subsidies to foreign-made electric cars if they are produced in countries that have a standing free trade agreement with the U.S. Another would be to insert a rider in a bill to delay the tax subsidy until 2025. This would give South Korean manufacturers time to complete their U.S. factories.

A third alternative would focus on state legislation that tried to streamline regulations to enable accelerated construction of the car plants in Georgia to facilitate production of vehicles in the U.S. earlier than 2025.

There should be no illusions that any of these solutions are easy. And the U.S. will try to address South Korean concerns, but with an understanding that these problems are short-term ones, while the benefits of the IRA to South Korea are real and will come to fruition within only a couple of years.

english.chosun.com

10. North Korea’s Kim Guides Missile Test in Latest Show of Military Might

Political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting strategies.

Excerpts:

Last month, North Korea revised its laws to allow pre-emptive nuclear strikes if the leadership comes under attack at a meeting where Mr. Kim declared he would never give up his nuclear weapons. In recent months, Washington, Tokyo and Seoul have expanded combined military exercises, including the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the region.

On Wednesday, North Korea’s ambassador to the U.N. lashed out at the U.S. for aggravating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. He called on the U.S. to suspend its joint military exercises with South Korea and defended North Korea’s weapons development as a self-defense measure to counter “heinous” hostility, addressing the U.N. General Assembly.

North Korea last fired cruise missiles in August after declaring victory over its first nationwide Covid-19 outbreak. In recent months, the Kim regime has repeatedly said they have no interest in dialogue with Washington or Seoul.

North Korea has conducted several provocative exercises this year, including testing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland and sending an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan for the first time since 2017. Washington and Seoul officials have also said Pyongyang has completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test.

North Korea’s Kim Guides Missile Test in Latest Show of Military Might

Launch of two long-range strategic cruise missiles follows two weeks of military drills

By Dasl YoonFollow

Updated Oct. 13, 2022 5:09 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-kim-guides-missile-test-in-latest-show-of-military-might-11665619087?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guided the launch of two long-range strategic cruise missiles on Wednesday, state media said, claiming the weapons were equipped to carry tactical nukes.

Mr. Kim stressed that the test was a “clear warning to the enemies,” demonstrating the combat capacity of North Korea’s war deterrent, according to a Thursday state media report.

The missiles flew for nearly three hours to hit a target about 1,240 miles away, making oval and figure-eight patterns over the Yellow Sea, which is located off North Korea’s west coast, state media said. The South Korean military didn’t alert on the launch, as cruise missiles are typically considered part of regular military exercises rather than provocations. This was North Korea’s 26th missile launch this year, the most it has tested in a year.

What’s Next After North Korea’s Latest Barrage of Weapon Tests

North's cruise missile tests fly under radar of sanctions

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/13/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-cruise-missile/20221013151543470.html

00:0004:21

North Korea's state-run Rodong Sinmun on Thursday released this photo of one of two long-range strategic cruise missiles fired by the regime on Wednesday. [NEWS1]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un personally watched the test-firing of long-range strategic cruise missiles by tactical nuclear operations units, Pyongyang's state media reported Thursday.

According to an English-language report by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea on Wednesday fired “two long-range strategic cruise missiles that flew for 10,234 seconds along an oval and pattern-8 flight orbits in the sky” above the Yellow Sea and hit their target 2,000 kilometers away.

Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), which reported the launches to media only after the KCNA report was released, disclosed that the cruise missiles were fired from Kaechon, South Pyongan Province.

The JCS added they detected the cruise missile launches at the time they occurred, but decided not to publicize them because the North is only forbidden from carrying out tests of ballistic missile technology.

The launches observed by Kim were conducted in order to further enhance the “combat efficiency and might” of the missiles, which KCNA said were deployed with units of the North’s Korean People’s Army responsible for operating tactical nuclear weapons.

The tests reconfirmed the reliability of the overall tactical operations system, the agency added.

Kim expressed satisfaction that the test demonstrated the capabilities of the North’s tactical nuclear operations units, saying they “proved again their full preparedness to use any weapons system [to] bring our enemies immediately to heel without fail and with absolute mobility, precision and force in wartime,” according to the KCNA.

Calling the test a “clear warning” to South Korea and the United States as well as a demonstration of the North’s deterrence capabilities, Kim called for the “endless accelerating” of the country’s nuclear weapons program and its “nuclear strategic armed forces.”

The test took place two days after the KCNA released a report on the regime’s flurry of missile tests between Sept. 25 and Oct. 9, during which it fired a variety of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) — including one launched from underwater in a reservoir — a multiple-launch rocket system, a heavy payload SRBM and an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that overflew Japan.

Recent launches by the North seem to reflect Kim’s vow to equip frontline units with tactical nuclear weapons and credible means of carrying out preemptive nuclear attacks in case of a perceived existential threat.

In particular, the North appears to be shifting the focus of its nuclear weapons program towards tactical nuclear weapons that could degrade an enemy’s conventional fighting capabilities, and away from strategic nuclear weapons aimed at destroying wide areas, such as entire cities.

The North’s progress in cruise missile technology raises concerns it could potentially overwhelm South Korean missile defenses with a mixed barrage of ballistic missiles that can perform “pull-up” maneuvers and low-flying cruise missiles, both of which are difficult to intercept.

If the North succeeds in miniaturizing nuclear weapons so they fit atop missiles, those concerns would only grow.

“It would become very difficult to distinguish a missile mounted with a tactical nuclear weapon from a missile carrying a conventional bomb,” said Prof. Lee Byong-chul of Kyungnam University, adding it would likewise become “far more complicated and difficult to formulate a defensive response” to such a scenario.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

12. North Korea may have photoshopped aircraft into propaganda images

I would not be surprised if this was true.

Photos at the link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11310709/North-Korea-photoshopped-aircraft-propaganda-images.html

North Korea may have photoshopped aircraft into propaganda images

Has Kim Jong Un resorted to PHOTOSHOPPING extra jets into his air force? Experts say display of '150 warplanes' appears to have been digitally altered

North Korea said it held huge live-fire drills involving 150 aircraft that took place between October 6 and 8
Propaganda images released shortly after showed Kim Jong Un watching massive formations of aircraft
However, experts have since suggested that many of the images appear to have been digitally altered
Planes and formations seem to have been cloned to make drills appear bigger than they were, experts said

By MICHAEL HAVIS FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 04:05 EDT, 13 October 2022 | UPDATED: 06:00 EDT, 13 October 2022

Daily Mail · by Michael Havis For Mailonline · October 13, 2022

Kim Jong Un's stooges may have photoshopped extra jets into propaganda images of recent North Korean military drills to make the country's air force look more impressive than it actually is, experts have suggested.

Pyongyang said huge live-fire exercises involving 150 jets 'flying simultaneously for the first time in [our] history' took place between October 6 and 8, with images released shortly after showing huge numbers of aircraft pulling manoeuvres while watched by Kim himself.

However, Thorsten Beck - an expert in photo analysis at Berlin's HEADT Centre research institute - said the images appear to have been digitally altered, with individual planes or entire formations of aircraft copied and pasted to give the impression the display was much larger than it was in reality.

North Korea claims to have held air drills involving 150 planes between October 6 and 8, but analysis of propaganda images suggests aircraft were duplicated to make the exercises appear more spectacular than they were (planes which appear to have been cloned are circled in the same colours)

Experts in Germany examined the images by eye and ran them through software designed to pick up clones, then circled the planes which they believe were copied and pasted in the same colour to highlight the manipulation

While digital analysts admitted they cannot conclusively prove the images were manipulated, military experts said the formations pictured make no sense - further suggesting that extra planes were added (aircraft which appear to have been digitally cloned and circled in the same colours)

Dr Beck said he examined the images himself and picked up a number of discrepancies, then ran them through software designed to pick up image cloning and found the computer identified many of the same issues.

He said: 'I think the assumption that, in a number of images, elements have been cloned is correct. Whoever created or manipulated these pictures certainly had some command of Photoshop.

'It does not look amateurish, but the composition, the purpose and nature of the manipulation speak a different language... They appear somehow too good to be true and that creates a funny effect in some of the images.'

Dr Beck picked out one image, showing 30 warplanes from above, as a prime example. Visual clues of manipulation include the fact that the planes all appear roughly the same size despite them supposedly flying at different heights and distances from the camera - meaning their appearance should change.

Another photo, showing a variety of fighter planes against a dramatic backdrop of clouds, also piqued suspicions.

'The image looks very artfully composed, almost too good to be true,' said Dr Beck. 'In clone analysis you can see which groups show similarity, and my visual analysis largely coincides with this.'

He admitted the charge of digital manipulation cannot be conclusively proven because the photos are relatively low resolution, there is a lack of alternative angles to compare, and metadata that usually accompanies digital photo files has been stripped away - limiting the kinds of analysis that can be done.

Analysts have circled planes which they believe have been digitally cloned and replicated in North Korean propaganda images in the same colour, suggesting the pictures were altered to make the display more dramatic than it actually was

Kim Jong Un is pictured overseeing the drill, which came in response to recent exercises by Japan, South Korea and the US which his regime views as a rehearsal for an invasion

Added to which, analysing military formations for duplication is difficult because their deliberately symmetrical nature means photo software can be tricked into identifying them as clones, when in fact they just look similar.

However, additional analysis by other experts suggests the formations themselves don't make sense from a military point of view - further reinforcing the idea that the pictures have been doctored.

Samuel Archer, a senior military analyst with Aviation Week, said: 'From the perspective of a military exercise the concentration and volume of aircraft makes no tactical or strategic sense.

'It strikes me that the only real reason you'd put that many aircraft in flight that close together would be to make it appear in photos that there were far more of them than actually exist.'

Dr Beck added: 'In summary, copied elements are likely in many of the images – even if visual analysis cannot give absolute certainty.'

The exercises took place last week over the seas near the eastern city of Wonsan.

According to state propaganda, Kim Jong-un afterwards praised the pilots and urged them to 'discharge their sacred mission of defending the country'.

The pilots – the ones that actually exist – were said to be rapturous in their response.

Daily Mail · by Michael Havis For Mailonline · October 13, 2022

13. Seoul loses seat on UN Human Rights Council

Not good.

I wonder how much influence CHina and Russia had on the vote:

Excerpt:

In a secret ballot at the UN General Assembly to elect 12 members to the council in New York Tuesday, South Korea won 123 votes, coming in fifth among seven Asia-Pacific nations competing for membership, coming behind Bangladesh, Maldives, Vietnam and Kyrgyzstan.

Thursday

October 13, 2022

dictionary + A - A

Seoul loses seat on UN Human Rights Council

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/13/national/diplomacy/South-Korea-United-Nations-Human-Rights-Council/20221013160514213.html

A plenary meeting of the UN General Assembly elects members of the Human Rights Council at UN headquarters in New York Tuesday. [UNITED NATIONS]

South Korea failed to win a seat on the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council for the first time.

While Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the unexpected defeat was because it had been overstretched trying to win elections at other international organizations, some lawmakers blamed the Moon Jae-in government's lax attitude toward North Korean human rights while others raised concerns about South Korea's current diplomacy.

In a secret ballot at the UN General Assembly to elect 12 members to the council in New York Tuesday, South Korea won 123 votes, coming in fifth among seven Asia-Pacific nations competing for membership, coming behind Bangladesh, Maldives, Vietnam and Kyrgyzstan.

Afghanistan won fewer votes than South Korea, while Bahrain withdrew from the election prior to the vote.

South Korea first joined the council as a founding member in 2006, the year it was established, and was re-elected in 2008, 2013, 2016 and 2020.

The new three-year term runs from the beginning of 2023 to 2025.

The Human Rights Council, along with the UN Security Council and the UN Economic and Social Council (Ecosoc), play pivotal roles in efforts to achieve the UN's three pillars: human rights, peace and security and development.

Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Wednesday that it had not been able to prioritize winning a seat on the council this time around because it was focusing on similar elections in other international agencies.

Last December, the ministry decided South Korea would aim for membership or leadership positions in 14 international organizations this year, including the International Labor Organization (ILO) and Ecosoc, according to a Foreign Ministry official.

In the case of the 54-member Ecosoc, South Korea was reelected for the sixth consecutive time for a three-year term in June. South Korea is also vying for a spot as a non-permanent member of the Security Council in the 2024-2025 period. South Korea served on the Security Council twice before in the 1996-1997 and 2013-2014 terms.

The official told reporters that the biggest factor for the defeat in the re-election in the Human Rights Council was that Seoul was "unable to select and concentrate" due its focus on the other elections. Because South Korea's diplomatic missions had to deal with so many simultaneous elections, its bargaining power was weakened for this election.

"In international organization elections, countries engage in mutual support, in which countries promise to exchanges votes in the elections they each run for," said the official. "Some countries also appeared to be checking whether South Korea had too many seats on major organizations."

But Seoul lost a seat on a major UN body that is closely aligned with the Yoon Suk-yeol government's focus on values-based diplomacy.

The Yoon administration has emphasized protecting human rights as one of its core principles, a concept Yoon focused on in his first address to the UN General Assembly last month.

Members of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) blamed the Moon administration's lack of interest in the human rights situations in North Korea.

"The Moon Jae-in government didn't participate in UN resolutions condemning human rights abuses in North Korea for four consecutive years," said PPP spokesperson Park Jeong-ha in a statement Thursday. "It's like South Korea lost the opportunity to take a leading role in human rights issues, including those related to North Korea, in the international community."

He described the failure as a "diplomatic disaster" by the Moon government.

South Korea opted out of supporting UN Human Rights Council resolutions condemning the human rights situation in North Korea for four consecutive years since 2019. It co-sponsored those annual resolutions since 2008.

In 2020, the UN special rapporteur on North Korea's human rights sent the two Koreas a letter regarding the North's killing of a South Korean fisheries official in September of that year. South Korea also has taken a position of strategic ambiguity amid Sino-U.S. tensions, including on issues such as the human rights abuses in China.

"The failure was only to be expected," said PPP floor leader Joo Ho-young in a statement on Facebook Wednesday, asking why the Moon government and Democratic Party (DP) "remained unusually silent on North Korea human rights issues."

In turn, the liberal DP's task force on Yoon's diplomatic policy said the defeat in the Human Right Council election was due to the current government's diplomatic missteps. It said in a statement, "Korea's status in the international community has once again dropped due to the inexperience of the Yoon administration."

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]

14. Change is in the Mission for U.S. Special Operations Command

Someone is paying attention to Korea!

Excerpts:

Special Operations Command Korea, according to its own website, is a SOJTF-in-waiting. Its role is primarily to form a SOJTF on the outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula. “If the armistice fails, SOCKOR and ROK SWC will combine to establish the Combined Special Operations Component Command Korea under the Combined Forces Command,” according to its website. Meanwhile it carries on training exercises.

Gen. Clarke and Assistant Secretary Maier announced closed their April Vision and Strategy statement saying: “Just as our adversaries adapt to and shape the strategic environment, SOF will continue to evolve in order to fulfill the vision of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation in integrated deterrence, crisis, and conflict.”

SOCOM is still carrying on the war on terrorism with only slight public notice. Its work with allies in training Ukraine’s fighting forces may result in shaping conventional warfare in coming years. With that kind of record the American public should look forward to seeing what Special Forces leadership and personnel come up with in the future.

Change is in the Mission for U.S. Special Operations Command

thecipherbrief.com

Fine Print

October 12th, 2022 by Walter Pincus, |

Pulitzer Prize Winning Journalist Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics that ranged from nuclear weapons to politics. He is the author of Blown to Hell: America's Deadly Betrayal of the Marshall Islanders. Pincus won an Emmy in 1981 and was the recipient of the Arthur Ross Award from the American Academy for Diplomacy in 2010.

View all articles by Walter Pincus

OPINION — U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), which has grown to become the world’s top counterterrorism force over the past 20 years, is now facing some change in mission and reductions in personnel under the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy.

During that period, SOCOM grew from about 45,700 military and civilian personnel in 2001 to about 73,900 in fiscal year 2021.

SOCOM Commander General Richard Clarke and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Christopher Maier announced last April in their Vision and Strategy statement, Special Operations Forces (SOF) must evolve “from the world’s premier Counter Terrorism (CT) force into one optimally suited to support the Joint Force and the Nation as part of integrated deterrence.”

With China and Russia as major power competitors, “Over the next 10 years, we will modernize SOF, pioneer dynamic and unorthodox approaches (including the full toolkit associated with irregular warfare), leverage emerging technologies to mitigate adversarial activities by China, and create asymmetric advantages for current and future conflict,” they wrote.

They also forecast that “Given anticipated budget reductions, our budget proposals will reflect deliberate efforts to find efficiencies in our processes and procedures.”

Ironically, SOF work in line with the new strategy had already begun eight years ago in Ukraine, while CT was still the main focus of SOCOM.

“Our special-operations forces helped develop and work with other allies to come into Ukraine and build up the Ukrainian special operations forces,” Gen. Clarke, told members of the House Armed Services Committee at a hearing in April.

Since that training began in 2014, Ukrainian forces “doubled in size,” Clarke said, and “created a solid military force with a robust, non-commissioned corps. It also created a cadre of potential recruits for Ukrainian special operations units, helping those units not only get better but bigger.”

However, as a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released last Wednesday showed, SOCOM’s new strategy focus has had an impact on its current operations.

During calendar year 2021, the GAO found, SOCOM had 28 action units or task forces operating around the world, primarily in the Middle East (12) and Africa (6). And between 2018 and 2021, it had terminated 27 SOF task forces and transitioned another 30 to other missions.

But the GAO report is a sharp reminder that SOCOM, and thus the U.S., continue to have American military units in active combat in several places around the world.

The Cipher Brief hosts expert-level briefings on national security issues for Subscriber+Members that help provide context around today’s national security issues and what they mean for business. Upgrade your status to Subscriber+ today.

For example, last Thursday, U.S. Combined Special Ops Joint Task Force-Levant (SOJTF-Levant) carried out two major assaults in Northern Syria that killed three Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist leaders, according to a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) press release.

Last week’s GAO report notes that back in 2020, CENTCOM had transitioned SOJTF-Operation Inherent Resolve, which had been directed at the ISIS terrorist group, into SOJTF-Levant, which has been carrying out military operations in Iraq and Syria.

Headquartered in Kuwait, SOJTF-Levant also exercises command of SOF units in Jordan and Lebanon. Recently, SOJTF-Levant reduced its personnel from about 270 to 230, according to the GAO.

In Afghanistan, according to the GAO, SOJTF-Afghanistan ended its mission in August 2021, with its personnel then becoming the nucleus of Over-The-Horizon/Counterterrorism Task Force established in January 2022, with responsibility for Afghanistan as well as Central and South Asia nations.

The July 31, 2022, U.S. drone attack that killed Al-Qaeda Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was the work of the Over-The-Horizon/Counterterrorism Task Force. It proved the U.S. continues to have intelligence and military power in the area.

In Africa, the GAO lists six task forces but only mentions one, the Special Operations Task Force – North/West Africa which it describes as “conducting counterterrorism operations in North and West Africa.”

However, beyond that one group there also are Special Operations Task Force East Africa, Joint Special Operations Air Component Africa, Naval Special Warfare Unit Ten, SOCAFRICA Signal Detachment and Joint Special Operations Task Force-Somalia.

Last May, President Biden authorized an increase of some 400 SOF personnel for Somalia which has been fighting against Al Shabab terrorists for years. By doing so, Biden reversed a withdrawal of some 700 American military during the Trump Administration. Then Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said, “It is not a deployment. This is a change in posture. It’s about putting troops back into Somalia on a persistent basis. It’s not a deployment with an end date.”

This past August 14, the SOJTF-Somalia in coordination with the Somalian government, conducted an air strike against al-Shabaab terrorists who were attacking Somali Army units near Teedaan, Somalia. Some 13 terrorists were either killed or wounded.

Just over a week ago, U.S. Africa Command said it carried out another air strike on October 1, near Jilib, southwest of the Somali capital of Mogadishu. The strike, the Command said, killed Abdullahi Nadir, al-Shabaab’s chief prosecutor, who it said had been in line to replace the group’s ailing leader, Ahmed Diriye.

In the Indo-Pacific Command there are four Special Operations Task Forces according to the GAO report. One is SOJTF-511, headquartered in Okinawa with a mission to counter ISIS expansion and deny terrorists safe haven in the Philippines.

SOJTF-511.2, is a team of U.S. servicemen based at Camp Don Basilio Navarro, headquarters of the Philippine Army’s Western Mindanao Command. The small team is what remains of what used to be a 600-personnel contingent of military advisers and trainers deployed from 2002 to 2015 under Operation Enduring Freedom-Philippines to go after the then Al-Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf group.

U.S. Special Operations Command created a task force in the Pacific region to work with allies there to thwart China’s information operations, the commander told lawmakers Thursday.

Another Indo-Pacific SOJTF team will be focused on information and influence operations in the Pacific theater because of China’s growing capabilities. SOCOM’s Gen. Clarke told Congress last summer that with the new task force “we actually are able to tamp down some of the disinformation that they [China] continuously sow.”

Special Operations Command Korea, according to its own website, is a SOJTF-in-waiting. Its role is primarily to form a SOJTF on the outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula. “If the armistice fails, SOCKOR and ROK SWC will combine to establish the Combined Special Operations Component Command Korea under the Combined Forces Command,” according to its website. Meanwhile it carries on training exercises.

Gen. Clarke and Assistant Secretary Maier announced closed their April Vision and Strategy statement saying: “Just as our adversaries adapt to and shape the strategic environment, SOF will continue to evolve in order to fulfill the vision of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation in integrated deterrence, crisis, and conflict.”

SOCOM is still carrying on the war on terrorism with only slight public notice. Its work with allies in training Ukraine’s fighting forces may result in shaping conventional warfare in coming years. With that kind of record the American public should look forward to seeing what Special Forces leadership and personnel come up with in the future.

Read more expert-driven national security insight, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

14. N. Korean security agency’s surveillance research center renamed and expanded

Protection of the regime is the prime directive. Note the emphasis on control of media, cyber, information, etc. the Korean people in the north are a greater threat to the regime than the alliance military forces. The people, armed with information, is an existential threat.

Excerpt:

The source added that ordinary people “will never know that the authorities want to closely watch everyone by expanding [the research institute] so that nobody escapes the surveillance regime, including every citizen who uses an electronic library, a mobile phone or a wired home phone.”

N. Korean security agency’s surveillance research center renamed and expanded

Inside the Ministry of State Security, people are reportedly saying the center will allow the ministry to snoop on people’s communications in a more sophisticated way

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2022.10.13 6:00pm

dailynk.com

FILE PHOTO: Overlooking Namyang, North Hamgyong Province. (Daily NK)

The Ministry of State Security’s Information and Communication Research Institute was recently renamed and expanded into the Information and Communications Strategy Research Center. Accordingly, work is reportedly underway to move the center from the capital Pyongyang to Hyangsan County, North Pyongan Province.

A Daily NK source in North Korea said Tuesday that the Ministry of State Security’s Organization Department issued a decision on Oct. 3 calling for the renaming of the research lab “in accordance with a ratification [by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un],” and that work on moving the institute has been underway since Oct. 6.

In fact, the Ministry of State Security’s Organization Department reportedly submitted a written proposal last month calling for the Information and Communication Research Institute to be renamed the Information and Communications Strategy Research Center and expanded into a “specialized research unit to establish a general strategy for information and communications surveillance.” It appears that Kim Jong Un eventually ratified the proposal.

The existing Information and Communication Research Institute, while formally just a research institution, was in fact a small-scale surveillance organization operating under the ministry’s communication bureau, collecting specific intelligence designated by the ministry and regularly reporting wiretap data on selected targets. However, the source said that with the expansion of the institute into the Information and Communications Strategy Research Center, the organization will implement more detailed surveillance strategies in addition to its existing duties.

According to the source, the center — as a general domestic information and communications surveillance body operating directly under the Ministry of State Security — will perform the following duties:

Surveillance of communication services and R&D institutions
Surveillance of e-payment service apps
Surveillance of Workers’ Party, government, and military intranets
Surveillance of how well specialized units maintain their electronic documents, and keeping an eye on related apps
Classifying, predicting, evaluating and reporting potential dangers

The source said the center will “serve as a specialized secret agency performing general surveillance of all domestic wired and wireless electronic communication systems and all sorts of programs, regardless of the subject, all under the the goal of protecting national security.”

Because of this, the source said the authorities are moving the center from Pyongyang, where the Ministry of State Security’s headquarters is located, to a hidden and largely inaccessible area of Hyangsan County.

Inside the Ministry of State Security, people are reportedly saying the center will allow the ministry to snoop on people’s communications in a more sophisticated way.

The source said the Ministry of State Security believes the expansion of the center will be an “opportunity to further strengthen the socialist electronic barrier by establishing communication surveillance strategies for state regime security and the safety of the leadership, and by swiftly uncovering and smashing the anti-state and anti-regime behavior of hostile elements by strengthening surveillance of all social classes.”

The source added that ordinary people “will never know that the authorities want to closely watch everyone by expanding [the research institute] so that nobody escapes the surveillance regime, including every citizen who uses an electronic library, a mobile phone or a wired home phone.”

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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

V/R

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Phone: 202-573-8647

Personal Email: d avid.maxwell161@gmail.com

Web Site: www.fdd.org

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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