April 15, 2020
11:30 a.m.
Revised Projection Forecasts Earlier Peak, Fewer COVID-19 Deaths and Hospitalizations in California
The
University of Washington Medical School
, a respected source of data analytics, has revised its COVID-19 projections for California, and is now forecasting that the state will see fewer deaths and hospitalizations than expected due to the aggressive social distancing measures that have been taken. This means two things:
- Social distancing and staying at home is working; and
- It is imperative that we continue these practices.
The health and well-being of our community
depends
on our collective commitment to
staying at home until further notice
except when traveling for essential needs, and practicing social distancing when out in public. There is
nothing more important
during this pandemic.
COVID-19 Projections
The latest state-by-state projections from the
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
revised the number of total COVID-19 deaths projected in California by August 4 from an initial estimate of 6,100 down to 1,483. According to the current projections, the number of daily deaths in California is expected to peak at 52 on April 19. Previously, California's peak was predicted to occur toward the end of April.
As of April 14, California has 23,338 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection, and 758 fatalities, according to the
California Department of Public Health
. In Orange County, there are 1,299 confirmed cases and 17 deaths.
- City case data is reflective of where cases live; this does not necessarily reflect where transmission occurred;
- City numbers should not be interpreted to reflect where transmission is geographically focused or not, but COVID-19 is present in all communities in the county; and
- Case counts are not reflective of all disease transmission in any given community because testing is prioritized for those at greatest risk or most sick; asymptomatic and persons with mild disease may not be reflected due to not being tested.
While the revised projections for California are encouraging, the results of this forecasting model assume a continued commitment to social distancing and traveling only for essential needs. There is nothing more important than following the
Center for Disease Control's
social distancing and hygiene guidelines. Please continue to follow the orders of state and county public health officials until the stay-at-home order is lifted.
This is still a rapidly evolving situation. For timely information updates, please visit
yorbalindaca.gov/coronavirus
, and follow us on our
social media channels
. Residents can also call the City of Yorba Linda's coronavirus hotline by calling
714-984-5900
Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. to receive referrals to local services and non-medical information.
Governor Gavin Newsom's April 14 Announcement
On Tuesday, April 14, Governor Gavin Newsom held a press conference to announce the
six key indicators
that will guide the State of California's thinking for when and how to modify the stay-at-home order issued on March 19, 2020. While the plan does not establish a timeline for lifting or modifying the order, it does create a framework for making that decision. For more information on the State of California's response, please visit
covid19.ca.gov.
Use of Masks and Proper Hygiene Can Help Prevent the Spread of COVID-19
The City of Yorba Linda encourages residents to follow the
County of Orange Health Officer's recommendation
to wear a mask while at work and while engaging in essential activities. The recommendation is in line with guidance issued by the California Department of Public Health on April 1, and is intended to help slow the spread of COVID-19 by those who are asymptomatic. Residents can make their own face coverings at home from a variety of materials and should refrain from purchasing N95 masks or other personal protective equipment that is in critical short supply for our healthcare workers. For mask-making instructions, visit the Center for Disease Control's
coronavirus website
.
Please remember that wearing a mask is not a substitute for proven protective measures. Remember, the best way to fight this virus is to stay home, and to practice essential hygiene by:
- Washing your hands for at least 20 seconds. If soap is not available, use a hand sanitizer that is at least 60% alcohol based;
- Coughing or sneezing into a tissue and throwing it away;
- Maintaining a 6-foot distance between people in public or infected family members;
- Staying hydrated;
- Getting enough sleep; and
- Trying to decrease stress and exercising. Go for a walk in your neighborhood, but remember to practice safe social distancing!
