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(Note that I will be in Korea for the next two weeks so my postings will be at odd hours.)
Quotes of the Day:
“We need to dispel the myth that empathy is ‘walking in someone else’s shoes.’ Rather than walking in your shoes, I need to learn how to listen to the story you tell about what it’s like in your shoes and believe you even when it doesn’t match my experiences”
- Brené Brown, Atlas of the Heart
“Never has our future been more unpredictable, never have we depended so much on political forces that cannot be trusted to follow the rules of common sense and self-interest -- forces that look like sheer insanity, if judged by the standards of the centuries. It is as though mankind had divided itself between those who believe in human omnipotence (who think that everything is possible if one knows how to organize masses for it) and those for whom powerlessness has become a major experience of their lives.”
- Hannah Arendt
“You're entitled to your own opinions in your own head. But if you choose to express them out loud, it's your responsibility to:
(1) ground them in logic and facts
(2) explain your reasoning to others
(3) change them when better evidence emerges”
- Adam M. Grant
1. New South Korean President Tries to Make His Mark on Foreign Policy
2. Presidential office says 'no change' in planned Korea-Japan summit during U.N. General Assembly
3. U.S. vows to use full capabilities to ensure security of South
4. A peace-blind former president (South Korea)
5. Kim Jong Un’s reference to COVID vaccine draws wide interest in North Korea
6. Ally or competitor? (ROK and US)
7. Maryland Gov. Hogan named honorary veterans affairs minister in S. Korea
8. Is Korea headed for another financial crisis?
9. [Newsmaker] Families of Lee Dae-jun, Otto Warmbier meet
10. Past as prologue: Will North Korea's Kim return to nuke testing?
1. New South Korean President Tries to Make His Mark on Foreign Policy
He wants the ROK to be a Global Pivotal State. He has said north Korea is the South's enemy and there would be no more appeasement. He supports the rules based international order. He rejects the Chinese demand for the "Three Nos." And more.
Excerpts:
Park Won-gon, a political scientist at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said, “Unlike Moon Jae-in, whose focus was pretty much on inter-Korean relations and within the Korean Peninsula, Yoon pursues values-based internationalism and seeks to deal with the North Korea issue under that frame.”
...
“I seek to find the answer in strengthening the extended deterrence based on a strong South Korea-U.S. alliance,” he said. “Extended deterrence includes not only the use of nuclear weapons based in American territory, but also a package of all possible means and methods to deter nuclear provocations by North Korea.”
Yet like all his predecessors, he left the door open for dialogue. If North Korea moved toward denuclearization, he said, South Korea would start providing economic assistance, even before the denuclearization was complete.
New South Korean President Tries to Make His Mark on Foreign Policy
Yoon Suk-yeol has aligned his country more closely with the United States, but there are limits to how far he can go without angering China or provoking North Korea.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/18/world/asia/south-korea-yoon-china-us.html
By Choe Sang-Hun
- Sept. 18, 2022
- Updated 1:13 a.m. ET
SEOUL — Four months into his new administration, President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea has found himself in trouble.
His national approval rating has plummeted, his governing People Power Party does not control Parliament and five of his cabinet-level appointees have been forced to step down amid accusations of nepotism, sexual harassment and other ethical lapses.
Yet despite myriad domestic challenges, Mr. Yoon is hoping to boost his popularity at home and raise his profile on the world stage by pursuing a new foreign policy agenda, one that would deepen his country’s alliance with Washington in everything from missile defense to global supply chains while seeking to avoid antagonizing China or provoking North Korea into war.
In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, the South Korean president said it had become necessary — even inevitable — for Seoul to expand its security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo as North Korea intensified its nuclear threat.
Executing on such a policy will be a painstaking balancing act for Mr. Yoon. All of his recent predecessors have tried and failed to roll back the North’s nuclear program. And none have faced the geopolitical headwinds posed by the escalating rivalry between the United States, South Korea’s main security ally, and China, its biggest trading partner and a friend to North Korea.
Mr. Yoon was careful in the interview to point out that his country’s security partnerships were not aimed at China. “Our defense system is to deal with the North Korean threat, not China or other countries,” he said.
On Tuesday at the United Nations General Assembly, he is scheduled to deliver an address in which he is expected to emphasize his country’s commitment to the “rules-based international order,” a mantra frequently repeated by top American diplomats like Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken.
Image
A photograph provided by the North Korean state news media shows a test-fire of the Hwasong-17, an intercontinental ballistic missile, in March. Mr. Yoon said that because of the North’s weapons threats, South Korea must expand its military cooperation with the United States and Japan. Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press
Mr. Yoon, 61, would seem an unlikely candidate to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough. In his office, he had framed photos of stray dogs that he and his wife, Kim Keon-hee, adopted. (To the couple, who have no children, the pets are “more than a family,” his aides said.) On his desk was a plaque that read “The Buck Stops Here,” a gift from President Biden when he came to Seoul in May.
Before winning the presidential election with a razor-thin margin in March, Mr. Yoon had been a prosecutor for 26 years and never held elected office. Critics cited his lack of experience as a liability for South Korea.
More on China
But the president sounded determined to reverse the foreign policy decisions made by his progressive predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who helped arrange the historic summits between Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, and former President Donald J. Trump.
Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump failed to reach a nuclear disarmament deal during the meetings. Since their diplomacy collapsed, North Korea has continued to develop its weapons program while international sanctions have crippled the country’s economy. Mr. Yoon has called meetings Mr. Moon held with Mr. Kim a “political show.”
Editors’ Picks
Image
A desk plaque in Mr. Yoon’s office reads “The Buck Stops Here.” President Biden gave it to him in May.Credit...Woohae Cho for The New York Times
He leaned forward during the interview as he compared Mr. Moon to a “student obsessed with only one friend in his classroom: North Korea.” He also criticized Mr. Moon’s stance between the United States and China, calling it too ambiguous.
“I will pursue predictability, and South Korea will take a more clear position with respect to U.S.-China relations,” he said.
As part of those efforts, he has built up his credentials among South Korean conservatives by reinstating the joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises which were canceled or downsized under Mr. Moon and Mr. Trump.
Under Mr. Yoon, South Korea joined the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, often seen as an American-led effort to counter China in the race to secure global supply chains. He also agreed to attend preliminary talks for a technology alliance known as “Chip 4” with the United States, Japan and Taiwan.
Despite fears that doing so could anger China, Mr. Yoon said that it was “necessary” for the four nations to cooperate more closely.
Image
Mr. Yoon has resumed military exercises with the United States. Last month the two countries held their largest combined training drills in years.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press
His intentions of aligning his country more firmly with the West were made especially clear in June when he became the first South Korean president to attend a NATO summit.
“If one country tries to change the current territorial status with force, all countries should stand in solidarity to deter such kind of aggression,” Mr. Yoon told The Times in an apparent reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He has also been hard at work trying to mend fractured bilateral ties with Japan, a long-running headache for Washington. He said he hoped to strike a “grand bargain” with Tokyo over thorny historical issues that have kept South Korea and Japan, the country’s former colonial ruler, barely on speaking terms.
Park Won-gon, a political scientist at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said, “Unlike Moon Jae-in, whose focus was pretty much on inter-Korean relations and within the Korean Peninsula, Yoon pursues values-based internationalism and seeks to deal with the North Korea issue under that frame.”
Image
Mr. Yoon, left, with Mr. Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan at a NATO gathering in Madrid in June. Mr. Yoon became the first South Korean president to attend a NATO summit.Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times
Mr. Yoon said Seoul and Washington were prepared to bring “a package of all possible means and methods,” including the American nuclear umbrella, to bear on North Korea to avoid a war. But he also wanted Mr. Kim to know that a bright economic future awaited his people if he chose denuclearization.
Mr. Yoon’s pursuit of diplomacy in tandem with the Biden administration collides with the reality of South Korea’s interlocking trade ties with China, said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank in South Korea.
“President Yoon lacks a clear and detailed direction because South Korea cannot ignore China,” he said.
So far, Mr. Yoon has challenged Beijing on a number of fronts. He declared that he didn’t feel bound by Mr. Moon’s “three-no” policy, which stated that there would be no additional deployments of an advanced American missile defense system known as Thaad in South Korea, no participation in the U.S. missile defense network and no trilateral military alliance with Washington and Tokyo.
China has called Thaad a threat to its security and retaliated economically against South Korea after the country’s first Thaad deployment in 2017. Mr. Yoon said the Thaad deployment was vital to South Korea’s defense against the North. “It is a matter of sovereignty and security, which is not subject to any compromise,” he said.
Image
An advanced American missile defense system in Seongju, South Korea, in 2017. Mr. Yoon has said the system — the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor — is vital to South Korea’s defense against North Korea. Credit...Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters
Still, the president tacitly acknowledged that there were limits to how far South Korea could go in confronting China and building ties with Japan.
Although South Korea exchanged military intelligence and found it unavoidable to expand security cooperation with Japan to deal better with North Korea, he said no trilateral military exercises with the United States and Japan were on the horizon.
During his campaign, he indicated that he would push for the deployment of a second Thaad battery in South Korea, but he told The Times that his country would review its usefulness before taking further steps.
Perhaps most revealing, Mr. Yoon did not meet Speaker Nancy Pelosi when she came to Seoul after her high-stakes visit to Taiwan last month. His decision led to speculation that he was trying to avoid offending China, which claims Taiwan as its own and firmly opposed Ms. Pelosi’s visit.
Mr. Yoon called those suggestions “absolutely” untrue and said he was simply on a scheduled vacation. On Friday, though, Mr. Yoon met with Li Zhanshu, the head of the Chinese legislature and the third-highest-ranking member of the Chinese Communist Party.
Image
Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas last month. Mr. Yoon did not meet with Ms. Pelosi when she went to Seoul after a high-stakes visit to Taiwan.Credit...Twitter @Speakerpelosi, via Reuters
As if to provoke him, North Korea resumed testing intercontinental ballistic missiles soon after Mr. Yoon’s election. It also threatened pre-emptive nuclear attacks, making it more urgent for Mr. Yoon to bolster South Koreans’ slipping confidence in Washington’s “extended deterrence,” or commitment to defending allies using its own nuclear capabilities.
“I seek to find the answer in strengthening the extended deterrence based on a strong South Korea-U.S. alliance,” he said. “Extended deterrence includes not only the use of nuclear weapons based in American territory, but also a package of all possible means and methods to deter nuclear provocations by North Korea.”
Yet like all his predecessors, he left the door open for dialogue. If North Korea moved toward denuclearization, he said, South Korea would start providing economic assistance, even before the denuclearization was complete.
The North’s response to what Mr. Yoon has described as an “audacious initiative” has been anything but encouraging. Last month, the North called the South Korean president “simple” and “childish.” Mr. Cheong, the analyst, called Mr. Yoon’s proposal a revamped version of previous governments’ failed approach.
But Mr. Yoon, whose government has been dogged by one domestic scandal after another, seemed hopeful that North Korea would come around to seeing things his way. “If they care about their people and make a rational decision,” he said, “they will start reducing their nuclear stockpile.”
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Mr. Yoon in his office in Seoul on Wednesday. He is expected to deliver a speech at the United Nations on Tuesday, emphasizing his country’s commitment to an international, rules-based order.Credit...Woohae Cho for The New York Times
2. Presidential office says 'no change' in planned Korea-Japan summit during U.N. General Assembly
(LEAD) Presidential office says 'no change' in planned Korea-Japan summit during U.N. General Assembly | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · September 18, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with foreign minister's trip to New York in last 3 paras)
SEOUL, Sept. 18 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean presidential office said Sunday there's "no change" in the plan to hold a South Korea-Japan summit meeting this week on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.
A ranking presidential official made the remarks in a phone call with Yonhap News Agency, rejecting Japanese news reports on Sunday that the possibility of the summit meeting between President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida remains uncertain.
The presidential office announced last week the summit between Yoon and Kishida, the first summit between the two countries in nearly three years, has been agreed upon, and will be held on either Tuesday or Wednesday in New York.
"I haven't heard that there's any change in matters related with the Korea-Japan summit agreed upon for the occasion of the U.N. General Assembly," the presidential official said.
Another presidential official added the two countries have finished setting the time and the venue of the planned summit between Yoon and Kishida and only left details, such as agenda items, for final discussion.
"A related announcement will be made naturally at the scene if (the summit) is finally determined," another diplomatic source said.
South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin left for New York earlier in the day on a mission to accompany Yoon during the president's planned summit meetings on the fringes of the U.N. assembly. Park is also set to hold separate meetings with his counterparts from other nations.
Sources said a plan to hold a meeting of the Korean, U.S. and Japanese foreign ministers is currently under discussion. Park could also separately meet with his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi for bilateral talks.
If a bilateral meeting between Park and Hayashi takes place, it will mark Park's third talks with the Japanese minister since the Korean top diplomat took office in May.
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
Related Articles
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · September 18, 2022
3. U.S. vows to use full capabilities to ensure security of South
Sunday
September 18, 2022
dictionary + A - A
U.S. vows to use full capabilities to ensure security of South
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/18/national/diplomacy/korea-nuclear-north-korea/20220918184330912.html
Representatives of South Korea and the United States gather in Washington on Friday for the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (Edscg) meeting. From left are U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs Bonnie Jenkins; South Korean Vice Minister of National Defense Shin Beom-chul; South Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Hyun-dong; and U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl. [YONHAP]
Washington promised to use “all available levers” and draw on the full range of its military and “other advanced non-nuclear” capabilities to provide extended deterrence for Seoul against Pyongyang.
The commitment was made in Washington last Friday as high-level officials from the United States and South Korea met in person for the first Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (Edscg) meeting in nearly five years.
It was the first time ever that the meeting was held under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which launched in May.
The South Korean delegation was led by Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Hyun-dong and Vice Minister of National Defense Shin Beom-chul.
The U.S. delegation was led by Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs Bonnie Jenkins and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl.
In a joint statement issued after the meeting, both sides agreed to use all available levers — “including diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools” — to strengthen and reinforce the U.S. security commitment to South Korea and strengthen deterrence against North Korean aggression.
“The United States reiterated its ironclad and unwavering commitment to draw on the full range of its military capabilities,” the statement continued, “including nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and other advanced non-nuclear capabilities.”
What was particularly noticeable in the joint statement, according to local experts, is that the two countries pledged to continue cooperation in “the space and cyber arenas, to include multi-domain exercises.”
A local intelligence source, who spoke with the JoongAng Ilbo on the condition of anonymity over the weekend, said the South Korean government had long asked Washington for cooperation in such advanced non-nuclear capabilities, but that each time, the U.S. “failed to give a clear-cut answer.”
“The two sides will continue to explore avenues to enhance Alliance strategic readiness,” the statement went on, “through improved information sharing, training and exercises, as they relate to nuclear and non-nuclear threats, including better use of table-top exercises.”
Both countries made clear that any nuclear attack from North Korea would be met with an “overwhelming and decisive response.”
The allies also agreed to strengthen coordination to deploy and exercise strategic assets in the region while highlighting the combined training of fifth-generation F-35A fighter jets in July and the upcoming deployment of the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group in the region.
Unlike under the former Moon Jae-in administration, both governments agreed to hold the high-level Edscg annually. The next meeting will be held in the first half of 2023 at the expert level.
The bilateral meeting came a week after North Korea adopted a new law stipulating that it will “automatically and immediately” launch a nuclear strike to attack the origin of any provocation if the “command and control system” of its nuclear forces is in danger of an attack, an apparent reference to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
The new law states that a nuclear strike could be triggered if an attack on its nuclear weapons were imminent; if the country or its people were under threat; or to gain the upper hand during war.
Kim was quoted by the North’s state-run media the same day as saying that there will be “absolutely no denuclearization, no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade,” and that he would not surrender his nuclear weapons even if his country faced 100 years of sanctions.
BY LEE SUNG-EUN, LEE CHUL-JAE [lee.sungeun@joongang.co.kr]
4. A peace-blind former president (South Korea)
Conclusion
Now that North Korea refuses dialogue and ratchets up nuclear threats, the best solution is deterring nuclear threats from the North. Only then can peace arrive on the peninsula. In Washington last week, a third Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meeting, involving vice-ministerial defense and foreign affairs officials, was held timely. The government must raise the level of trust in U.S. extended deterrence fast.
Sunday
September 18, 2022
dictionary + A - A
A peace-blind former president
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/18/opinion/editorials/Moon-Jaein-interKorean-agreements-North-Korea/20220918201312133.html
Former president Moon Jae-in stressed the importance of respecting and implementing a series of inter-Korean agreements, including the Sept. 19 military agreement he made with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang in 2018. Moon made the shocking remarks in a video message for a public discussion on the military agreement, on Sunday, a day before the fourth anniversary of his third summit with Kim. After his retirement in March, the former president expressed hope for being forgotten among the public. But he speaks up again and demands the current administration follow in his footsteps.
Contrary to his claim, our current security situation is far worse than at the time of his summits with Kim. North Korea has finished all preparations for its seventh nuclear test. Last week, it even threatened to use nuclear weapons against South Korea if its leadership faces a crisis in political and security terms.
Since the military agreement four years ago, North Korea has incessantly test-fired ballistic missiles in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. The North exploded the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong in 2020 without any consent from South Korea and is claiming the ownership of Mount Kumkang tourism facilities built by South Korea or dismantling some of them. Kim has not kept the promises he made with Moon in 2018.
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration demanded dialogue with North Korea to help encourage denuclearization through its bold initiative, but North Korea refused it. Instead, it adheres to nuclear weapons after defining itself as a nuclear weapons state. The Yoon administration’s ambitious plan to denuclearize North Korea included the “action for action” principle, but North Korea just brushed it off.
“Without dialogue, there is no peace,” said the former president. “A starting point for all dialogues is trust.” But it was North Korea that continues endangering our security by advancing its nuclear weapons after breaking its own promise. Under such circumstances, Democratic Party Chairman Lee Jae-myung joined the chorus. “Expensive peace is better than a winning war,” he said. No doubt peace is important, but a submissive peace without trust only led to a new provocation from Pyongyang.
For instance, the North shot a South Korean fisheries official in the Yellow Sea and burned his body in 2020. Yet, the Moon administration did nothing. Instead, it forcefully sent two North Korean defectors back to the North in 2019, a clear violation of human rights. Was that really what Moon meant by peace?
Now that North Korea refuses dialogue and ratchets up nuclear threats, the best solution is deterring nuclear threats from the North. Only then can peace arrive on the peninsula. In Washington last week, a third Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meeting, involving vice-ministerial defense and foreign affairs officials, was held timely. The government must raise the level of trust in U.S. extended deterrence fast.
5. Kim Jong Un’s reference to COVID vaccine draws wide interest in North Korea
Will they or won't they vaccinate the Korean people living in the north?
Kim Jong Un’s reference to COVID vaccine draws wide interest in North Korea
Authorities have yet to say when a nationwide inoculation campaign would start.
By Chang Gyu Ahn for RFA Korean
2022.09.16
rfa.org
The North Korean people are eager to be inoculated against COVID-19 after their leader Kim Jong Un discussed vaccines in a policy speech, but authorities have not said when vaccines will become available, sources in the country told RFA.
While speaking to the Supreme People’s Assembly on Sept. 8, Kim briefly mentioned that in preparation for winter, public health institutions would be “administering vaccination in a responsible way” but recommended that the public wear masks starting in November.
The speech made international headlines for Kim’s remarks on the nuclear issue — he refused to give up nuclear weapons and lauded a newly passed law that allows preemptive nuclear strikes — but North Koreans are more interested in the single reference to vaccines, hoping it means they can get their jab soon.
“When people gather around these days, they always talk about coronavirus vaccines,” a resident of Kyongwon county in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“In areas close to the Chinese border, like here in Kyongwon county, things were more difficult during the COVID-19 quarantine period,” said the source.
Beijing and Pyongyang closed their 880-mile border and suspended all trade when COVID first emerged.
Additionally North Korean authorities said anyone caught within a one kilometer “kill zone” at the border would be shot on sight. Authorities also held public executions of smugglers and locked down entire counties and cities when they detected “suspected cases.”
“Until the beginning of this year, border areas were much more brutally controlled by the authorities and the rules were enforced more closely than in other areas due to the fears of the malicious virus entering from China,” the source said.
The country maintained that it was completely “virus free” up until May this year when Pyongyang declared a national “maximum emergency” after tracing a major outbreak of the virus to a military parade the previous month.
The emergency protocol included locking down cities, restricting movement between provinces, and isolating suspected infected persons in quarantine centers. Though only a handful of COVID-19 cases were officially confirmed, government figures identified 4.7 million suspected “fever” cases and 74 deaths over the course of the emergency.
The emergency posture ended Aug. 10, when North Korea claimed victory over the virus.
“I know it is the same throughout the country. But many people in Kyongwon county were ill with COVID-19 during the emergency quarantine period. They died without receiving any treatment because no medicine was available,” the source said.
“There are 30 households in my neighborhood watch unit. Of those, five have lost members of their family to COVID-19. One household even lost three family members,” the source said. “Everyone is saying we would not have suffered so many deaths if the entire population had been vaccinated against the coronavirus like in other countries.
“I don’t know why the authorities are only now talking about vaccination, when China and other countries started on that so much earlier.”
North Korea rejected 3 million doses of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine in September 2021, still claiming to be virus free. Pyongyang also twice rejected vaccine assistance from Russia, and did not respond to offers from the Biden administration during the maximum emergency.
“Whenever the neighborhood sees the leader of the neighborhood watch unit, they ask if there is an order to start the vaccination,” the source said.
“Although the authorities are currently promoting the main points addressed in Kim Jong Un’s administrative policy speech, the only thing we are interested in is vaccination.”
A resident of Hyesan, a city in Ryanggang province that borders China, said the biggest concern for locals is when a vaccine will become available.
“Kim Jong Un mentioned COVID-19 vaccination in his administrative policy speech at the Supreme People's Assembly on Sept. 8th,” the second source told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “There should be specific instructions or actions related to vaccination by now. But it's frustrating because the authorities are still quiet.
“We know that vaccines produced in the United States or Europe, where science and technology are more advanced, have excellent safety and effectiveness. Some people are concerned about getting poorer quality Chinese or Russian vaccines,” the second source said.
The disease and government orders to contain it have taken their toll on the Hyesan resident.
“I hope that the nationwide vaccination campaign is completed quickly. I want to live comfortably without having to fear malignant infectious disease.”
RFA reported in late May that the government had begun vaccinating soldiers mobilized as labor for a high-profile construction project in the capital Pyongyang. The campaign was promoted in propaganda films, with soldiers appearing to be moved to tears as they received what the films referred to as the “Immortal Potion of Love” from their benevolent leader Kim Jong Un.
A spokesperson for the Global Vaccine and Immunity Alliance, which operates the COVAX initiative, told RFA that enough doses could be made available to inoculate every North Korean should the government mount a vaccination drive.
“COVAX will be happy to share the vaccine if North Korea asks for it to be introduced,” the spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for UNICEF told RFA that it has not received any information regarding a proposed COVID-19 vaccination effort in North Korea.
Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
rfa.org
6. Ally or competitor? (ROK and US)
Excerpts:
The Yoon administration must recognize the cold reality in which the U.S. government only welcomes Korean investment when it brings tangible benefits to Americans. Washington made it clear that it will provide subsidies to allies if they can replace China — but that it will support U.S. companies if the allies pose a threat to them.
Under such circumstances, Seoul keeps saying that Washington considers the problem serious. But that’s nothing but torture by hope. Seoul says it would “consider filing a complaint with the WTO” if the unfair subsidies are not changed. But that’s just rhetoric, as it takes several years for the WTO dispute settlement process to end. Before any ruling is delivered, Korean factories will have been built in the U.S. and will be eligible for U.S. subsidies. The U.S. government reportedly reassured Seoul that the IRA is not that biased against foreign companies.
The Korean government could plead for help, asking, “How can you do this to your ally after stressing our friendship so much?” But this logic, based on alliances, will not work. Instead, it will be more persuasive if Seoul can convince Washington of the apparent damage to U.S. consumers if they cannot enjoy the high price-performance ratio of Korean EVs.
Korean companies are forced to survive on their own. They will certainly try to collect more information in Washington for lobbying than before, but it is questionable if it will bring about tangible results. Sadly, though, I have never heard of any Korean lawmakers who have tried to solve the problem based on their personal connections with their counterparts in Congress.
Sunday
September 18, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Ally or competitor?
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/18/opinion/columns/Biden-Yoon-Sukyeol-Korean-investment/20220918200702052.html
Choi Ji-young
The author is the economic news editor at the JoongAng Ilbo.
When U.S. President Joe Biden visited Korea for his first summit with President Yoon Suk-yeol in May, the feeling surrounding economic relations between the two allies was positive. On May 20, the first day of Biden’s trip, he met Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong and toured the company’s massive semiconductor-production facilities in Pyeongtaek. On May 22, the last day of his trip, Biden met Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Euisun Chung. The Yoon administration promoted the events with great fanfare, saying Korean companies became major players in the U.S. administration’s policy focusing on economic security.
But Korea’s jubilation did not last long. The Korean government and corporate sector were shocked after the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in July and August and the signing of an executive order entitled “Advancing Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Innovation for Sustainable, Safe and Secure American Bioeconomy” last week. The agile developments in the U.S. frustrated the Korean government and companies, as they saw the U.S. president repeatedly express his appreciation for Korea’s investment in America during his visit to Seoul.
Local industry insiders were convinced that Korea will play a key part in replacing China in global supply chains. But it did not pan out that way: The United States not only wants to exclude China from the new global supply networks, but also desires to restore America’s competitiveness in manufacturing.
As it turned out, the U.S. zeroed in on the fields where Korean companies have strength or make huge investments — such as chips, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries and bioengineering. They are cash cows for major economies, including Korea and the U.S., at least for a couple of decades. For American companies, Korean companies are their rivals.
It was evident that the Biden administration will take steps to create new global supply chains centered around the U.S., as repeatedly hinted at during his campaign, inauguration speech and other addresses Biden has made since the election. Korea Inc.’s reaction was remarkably swift. Hyundai Motor hurriedly came up with a plan to build a second factory for EVs in Georgia, Samsung hastily devised a scheme to construct its second chipmaking plant in Talyor, Texas, and SK rushed to invest in car battery manufacturing outposts in the U.S. But regrettably, no one expected Congress to approve such unfair bills so quickly.
Worse still, no one in the Foreign Ministry can get any information on what will be the next executive order by the U.S. president to constrain Korean companies’ business activities in America and beyond. A diplomatic official confessed that the ministry could not do anything because the IRA was passed so speedily. But his confession, while candid, does not pardon the Yoon administration.
The Korean government promised to open a channel for “economic security dialogue” between the presidential office and the White House to brace for a new era of economic security. That was the right direction. But that was it. The presidential office was not professional nor did it have time to prepare for the sudden developments in America.
The Yoon administration must recognize the cold reality in which the U.S. government only welcomes Korean investment when it brings tangible benefits to Americans. Washington made it clear that it will provide subsidies to allies if they can replace China — but that it will support U.S. companies if the allies pose a threat to them.
Under such circumstances, Seoul keeps saying that Washington considers the problem serious. But that’s nothing but torture by hope. Seoul says it would “consider filing a complaint with the WTO” if the unfair subsidies are not changed. But that’s just rhetoric, as it takes several years for the WTO dispute settlement process to end. Before any ruling is delivered, Korean factories will have been built in the U.S. and will be eligible for U.S. subsidies. The U.S. government reportedly reassured Seoul that the IRA is not that biased against foreign companies.
The Korean government could plead for help, asking, “How can you do this to your ally after stressing our friendship so much?” But this logic, based on alliances, will not work. Instead, it will be more persuasive if Seoul can convince Washington of the apparent damage to U.S. consumers if they cannot enjoy the high price-performance ratio of Korean EVs.
Korean companies are forced to survive on their own. They will certainly try to collect more information in Washington for lobbying than before, but it is questionable if it will bring about tangible results. Sadly, though, I have never heard of any Korean lawmakers who have tried to solve the problem based on their personal connections with their counterparts in Congress.
7. Maryland Gov. Hogan named honorary veterans affairs minister in S. Korea
Maryland Gov. Hogan named honorary veterans affairs minister in S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · September 18, 2022
SEOUL, Sept. 18 (Yonhap) -- Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has been named an honorary veterans affairs minister in South Korea in recognition of his efforts to elevate the honors of Korean War veterans, the ministry said Sunday.
Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs Park Min-shik was to present Gov. Hogan with a letter of appointment and a commemorative medal in a ceremony at the ministry in Seoul on Sunday shortly after their bilateral meeting to discuss cooperation, according to the ministry.
Married to a Korean American, Yumi Hogan, the governor is known for his contributions to the development of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and friendship. He donated US$250,000 for the construction of the Wall of Remembrance in Washington, a monument dedicated in July to honor U.S. soldiers and members of the Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army killed during the 1950-53 Korean War.
The ministry said Hogan has gladly accepted the suggestion of his honorary ministership, calling it "very wonderful."
Hogan is the first to be named an honorary minister by the veterans ministry.
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · September 18, 2022
8. Is Korea headed for another financial crisis?
I hope not. We were there for the 1997 IMF crisis. I do not want to see that happen to Korea again. I hope it is more resilient
Is Korea headed for another financial crisis?
The Korea Times · September 18, 2022
Experts say country is more resilient than past, but not immune from crisis, recession
By Yi Whan-woo
A string of economic indicators in Korea this year have worsened to levels comparable to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008-09 global financial crisis, raising questions on whether the country is on course for another crisis after overcoming painful shocks from the two preceding ones.
For instance, there was a striking sense of deja vu when some of this year's financial statistics were released. Inflation hit 6.3 percent in July ― the highest since November 1998 when it reached 6.8 percent. Also, the Korean won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,393.7 won on Sept. 15, the highest since 1,422 won on March 31, 2009. Foreign reserves dropped by $9.4 billion in June, the deepest fall since November 2008 ($11.7 billion). And in August when the country faced the fifth consecutive month of trade deficit, it echoed the longest losing streak in the trade balance seen in April 2008.
Correspondingly, the ratio of Korea's short-term foreign debt that matures in a year compared with its foreign exchange reserves surged to 41.9 percent in the second quarter ― a new high since the third quarter of 2012 (41.6 percent).
The chiefs of the nation's economic control towers are raising concerns, as they have repeatedly said the nation should brace for the possibility of "a complex mix of crises" stemming from domestic and global risks.
The risks run wide: a growth slowdown, inflation, liquidity squeeze, the Ukraine war, the U.S.-China trade conflict, the energy crunch and supply chain bottlenecks.
Of more concern is that the risks have emerged simultaneously ― a rare scene compared to the past ― and are thus amplifying jitters over the economy.
From left are former Financial Services Commission (FSC) Chairman and Institute for Global Economics CEO Jun Kwang-woo, Nomura chief Asia economist Robert Subbaraman and Standard Chartered Bank head of economic research Korea Park Chong-hoon / Courtesy of Jun, Subbaraman, Park
Against this backdrop, economists contacted by The Korea Times viewed that Korea's economic fundamentals in 2022 are more resilient than they had been during the previous two financial crises.
Nevertheless, the country, in the worst case, is anticipated to experience a recession ― at least two quarters in a row of economic contraction ― as it has seen three times before, in 1980 (minus 1.6 percent), 1998 (minus 5.1 percent) and 2020 (minus 1 percent).
The three periods were brought on respectively by the second oil shock, the Asian financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Korea's economy today is very different from that during the Asian crisis," Robert Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Nomura, said in an email response, noting the country "back then was overheating" because of a strong influx of hot money, excessive external debt, low foreign exchange reserves and a less flexible exchange rate.
"On all these factors, Korea is in better shape today," he added.
He went onto say Korea could still experience a mild recession soon because of a downturn in exports, an inventory overhang and a cooling housing market.
Citing data from the Japan-headquartered investment bank, Subbaraman forecast Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) to contract 0.7 percent in 2023 after growing 1.7 percent in 2022.
Concerning Korea's risk management capabilities against the possible recession, he assessed the country "has stronger buffers to cushion the impact, and there will be room to ease policy."
Park Chong-hoon, the head of economic research at Standard Chartered Bank Korea, said Korea is "not at the stage of crisis but has considerable potential to face it."
Similarly, he viewed the country is not likely to enter a recession, but may struggle with adverse effects that resemble those witnessed during a recession.
"For example, the country may manage to continue to grow at a slow pace as it has done but there will be hiring freezes, and if not, a shortage of quality jobs," he explained. "In a nutshell, the economy will be perceived by the public as if it is undergoing a recession although it actually isn't."
Jun Kwang-woo, a former Financial Services Commission (FSC) chairman who heads the Institute for Global Economics, said his forecast for the economy this year was "not so optimistic but also not overly pessimistic."
"The situation this year is qualitatively different from those in the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008-09 global financial crisis although we do have quite a few challenging factors," he said. "It certainly is the time to get very serious about defending our economy against a potential full-blown crisis, but not the time to panic about the situation."
Deja vu?
While the three economists assessed that the Korean economy has managed to weather multiple challenges, it leads to another question of why the economic indicators have deteriorated to levels reminiscent of the past two crises.
"And the question partly can be explained from the comparative perspective, such as the cross-country and cross-time comparisons," Jun said.
Concerning the 2022 growth rate, it has been revised down repeatedly and is forecast to reach as low as 2.3 percent.
The downgraded economic outlook still can be interpreted optimistically, according to the former FSC chairman, because it means the real GDP growth is progressing irrespective of high inflation.
On inflation, Korea saw rises of 6.3 percent in July and 5.7 percent in August, which can be seen as part of the high inflation witnessed worldwide.
Moreover, many countries are in an even worse situation than Korea, such as the eurozone's record 9.1 percent in August and the U.S.' 40-year high of 9.1 percent in June.
Of course, some indicators "deserve very close attention," according to Jun, as they highly reflect the impact of the external risks that remain out of Korea's hands.
They include the negative trade balance, which is highly associated with China's unprecedented growth slowdown.
"The Chinese economy was enjoying a boom during the past two crises that many are concerned about to date," Jun said, adding that Korea's recovery back then was attributable to China's growth and that losing such a plus factor would not go unnoticed.
The SC Bank Korea economist voiced a similar view, noting Korea reported its fourth consecutive monthly trade deficit with China in August ― the first in 30 years of bilateral relations.
"The months-long trade deficit, especially with China, is rare and thus is not a good sign at all for the future of the Korean economy," he said.
Park also warned against "being misled by" lagging indicators, in which impact stemming from economic circumstances are reflected about three or six months later.
Most of them are related to labor, according to Park, such as the unemployment rate and job growth.
The unemployment rate came down to a record-low 2.1 percent in August while the number of new jobs increased to a 22-year high of 807,000.
"The recovery in the job market comes from robust consumer spending amid a return to normalcy, and correspondingly, growing employment in the service sector," he said. "It remains to be seen whether the employment trend will continue after pent-up demand subsides."
The Korea Times · September 18, 2022
9. [Newsmaker] Families of Lee Dae-jun, Otto Warmbier meet
I heard Mr. Lee give powerful testimony about his brother last Thursday.
[Newsmaker] Families of Lee Dae-jun, Otto Warmbier meet
koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · September 18, 2022
By Kim Arin
Published : Sept 18, 2022 - 12:31 Updated : Sept 18, 2022 - 21:15
The families of Otto Warmbier and Lee Dae-jun met on Saturday. From left: Lee Rae-jin, Cindy and Fred Warmbier, and Rep. Ha Tae-kyung. (courtesy of Lee)
The families of Lee Dae-jun, a South Korean government official shot dead by North Korean troops at sea in 2020, and Otto Warmbier, a US college student who died after North Korea’s detainment left him in a coma in 2017, met on Saturday.
Lee Rae-jin, the older brother of the South Korean official, told The Korea Herald that Fred and Cindy Warmbier, parents of the American student, got together for the first time at the couple’s home in Cincinnati, Ohio.
“I have been wanting to meet them, and it’s been an emotional day,” he said.
Lee said he would join the Warmbiers’ efforts to go after North Korea’s assets and properties and force its regime to take responsibility through litigation.
He said they got around to talking about identifying the size and status of North Korea’s financial assets and businesses together, sharing them with other victims of North Korea’s human rights abuses, and then seeking legal routes to seize or shut them down.
“It’s inspiring what the Warmbier family has been doing to make North Korea pay for what it’s done, and I intend to do the same,” he said. “North Korea continues to inflict tragedies upon family after family, which is why it is so important to make sure they know we are not going to let them get away it.”
In December 2018, the Warmbiers won a wrongful death suit at a Washington court, which ordered North Korea to pay more than $500 million in damages. Part of the money they were awarded in January was from assets seized from a banking corporation found to be connected to the North Korean government.
Fred Warmbier and Lee Rae-jin shake hands at Northern Kentucky International Airport. (courtesy of Lee)
Lee Rae-jin visited the Oak Hill cemetery where Otto Warmbier was laid to rest. (courtesy of Lee)
Also on Saturday Lee visited the Oak Hill cemetery in Cincinnati where the 22-year-old was laid to rest to pay his respects.
“I don’t think it’s possible to stop grieving. We are not going to give up fighting,” he said.
Shortly after his brother died, Lee said he wished to reach out to the Warmbiers for wisdom and cooperation in putting pressure on North Korea.
The Warmbiers responded with an open letter vowing solidarity and offering support. “We are the same victims of the same lies and horrific abuses of the Kim regime and know that it is important to stand up to them,” they said in the letter.
Ahead of Saturday’s meeting, Fred Warmbier said in exchanges with The Korea Herald that he and his wife, Cindy, “look forward to meeting Mr. Lee” and that they “support him and are proud of him.”
Lee left for the US on Sept. 13 with a delegation of South Korean lawmakers for the 18th general meeting of the International Parliamentarians’ Coalition for North Korean Refugees and Human Rights.
Speaking at the general meeting, Lee asked for help from the United Nations and governments in holding North Korea accountable so that “no other family is put through pain like this.”
On Friday, he sent a public message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un outside the office of the Permanent Mission of North Korea to the United Nations in New York on Friday, in which he asked for a chance to visit the site where his brother died.
Lee said his family is finally holding a funeral for his brother on Thursday, on the second anniversary of his death, which had been put off in the hopes of possibly retrieving his remains.
The chairperson of the international parliamentarians’ coalition Rep. Ha Tae-keung was also at Saturday’s meeting between the two families. Ha led the ruling People Power Party’s fact-finding task force on the killing of the South Korean government official.
By Kim Arin (arin@heraldcorp.com)
10. Past as prologue: Will North Korea's Kim return to nuke testing?
I think it is likely.
Past as prologue: Will North Korea's Kim return to nuke testing?
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/01/asia-pacific/north-korea-nuclear-test-missiles/?utm_source=pocket_mylist
BY JESSE JOHNSON
STAFF WRITER
For months, North Korea has been ready to conduct its first nuclear test since 2017 and seventh overall, with experts saying all that’s needed is the green light from leader Kim Jong Un.
Now, Pyongyang watchers say, the time may be ripe for Kim to give the order.
After declaring victory over COVID-19 and with the largest joint U.S.-South Korean military drills since 2017 wrapping up Thursday — as well as key anniversaries looming on Sept. 9 and Oct. 10 — Kim may see the coming days or weeks as the ideal time to conduct a provocative weapons test, provided the political math adds up.
With the caveat that North Korea often remains an intelligence black hole, there are signs that Pyongyang could be preparing to test a so-called tactical nuclear bomb, and there’s a strong possibility that Kim may bookend any test with missile launches.
Timing ripe for Kim?
Kim has essentially brushed aside domestic concerns over the coronavirus — one of the greatest threats to regime stability the nation had ever encountered — potentially clearing a path for him to return to the breakneck pace of weapons tests seen earlier this year.
“Kim Jong Un’s declaration of victory over the coronavirus frees up political bandwidth for other pursuits, including military modernization,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
For its part, the White House may be resigned to the North conducting further weapons tests after failing to lure Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
“We’ve seen periods of engagement from the DPRK. We’ve seen periods of provocation from the DPRK,” U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Aug. 22, using the acronym for North Korea’s formal name. “It’s very clear that we are in a period that has been characterized by the latter.”
U.S. and South Korean marines participate in a joint landing drill in Pohang, South Korea, in March 2014. | REUTERS
With the calendar turning to September, testing soon could prove especially tempting for Kim.
North Korea — which has a long history of conducting missile launches, nuclear tests and other provocative moves around key anniversaries — will mark its Foundation Day, one of the country’s most important holidays, on Sept. 9. The following month, on Oct. 10, it will celebrate Party Foundation Day, another key date for the regime.
The North has traditionally used the days on and around the September and October anniversaries to conduct weapons tests, including three of its six nuclear blasts, as well as two intermediate-range ballistic missile launches that overflew Japan.
Easley said the North’s next provocation, “whether a nuclear test, missile launch or aggressive maneuver near the border, may occur on the day of a political anniversary, but could be conducted soon, before or afterwards, so Pyongyang can claim it to be a response to U.S.-South Korea defense exercises.”
The joint military exercises — which Pyongyang views as a rehearsal for invasion — are the largest since 2017. The drills were scaled down in the wake of then-U.S. President Donald Trump’s summits with Kim.
In a bid to highlight its growing weapons capabilities and recapture the attention of U.S. President Joe Biden, the North will almost assuredly conduct a nuclear explosion some time ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections in the U.S., former South Korean spy chief Park Jie-won said.
“They are going to do it in order to demonstrate a threat that its missile can fly to the U.S. carrying a miniaturized and lighter warhead, and to deal a blow to the Joe Biden administration ahead of the midterm elections,” Park told South Korean media last month.
Kim greets Chinese President Xi Jinping during Xi’s visit to Pyongyang in June 2019. | KCNA / VIA REUTERS
While those signs may point to imminent tests, one factor that could delay a resumption of testing for Kim is consideration for his powerhouse neighbor and economic lifeline, Beijing.
In addition to the nuclear program, Kim has made the country’s economic recovery a top priority, and Chinese aid is expected to be crucial in this regard. This could mean Kim may avoid rocking the boat as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to secure a historic third term at a major Communist Party congress starting Oct. 16.
“Timing of tests is really a political calculation rather than a technical one and North Korea may look for a narrative — an excuse — for conducting a test even though it’s been long planned,” said Ian Stewart, executive director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ Washington office.
A bid for tactical nukes
Kim has hinted at a return to nuclear testing after the summits with Trump failed to yield his desired results, telling ruling party leaders in January that the North would “reconsider in an overall scale the trust-building measures that we took on our own initiative … (and) promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporarily suspended activities.”
North Korea has been preparing for months to conduct its seventh underground nuclear test at its Punggye-ri site. But while Pyongyang has claimed to have mastered building larger nuclear bombs, resuming testing would help the regime in its quest to build smaller tactical nuclear weapons designed for the battlefield. These weapons could be deployed on its growing number of advanced short- and medium-range missiles that put Japan and South Korea well within striking distance.
Kim has not been shy about expressing his desire for battlefield nukes. In January 2021, he used a speech at a ruling party congress to explicitly lay out his goal of developing “ultramodern tactical nuclear weapons” within a quick time frame.
There is no universally agreed-upon definition for tactical nuclear weapons, but according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, they are said to be generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland. Some experts describe tactical nukes as intended to win a battle, while strategic weapons are intended to win a war.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during a meeting with Korean People’s Army medics to recognize their contributions in fighting COVID-19, in Pyongyang on Aug. 18. | KCNA / VIA REUTERS
Although the word “tactical” is often used to imply a smaller or less powerful weapon, some experts say this is misleading.
“A ‘tactical’ nuclear weapon, meaning a shorter-range nuclear weapon, is not necessarily smaller in explosive yield, just delivered on a shorter-range missile or bomber,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “The U.S. and Russia have tactical nuclear weapons that produce a relatively smaller explosive yield than their strategic nuclear weapons, but they are still quite devastating.”
According to nuclear policy expert Ankit Panda, possessing these kinds of weapons “would lower the already-low threshold for nuclear weapons use on the Korean Peninsula,” giving Pyongyang the option of threatening first-use and the ability to coerce its neighbors into concessions.
Taking a page from Russia and its thinly veiled threats to use tactical nukes in the Ukraine war, Kim already appears to be setting the stage for this type of nuclear blackmail.
In April, the North Korean leader delivered a chilling warning about a “mission” for his arsenal that went beyond deterrence should war break out on the Korean Peninsula. Just days before that, Kim also oversaw the test of a new weapons system geared toward “enhancing the efficiency in the operation of tactical nukes.” It was the first time the country had tied a specific system to its pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons.
Optimizing weapons
Although Kim’s scientists haven’t conducted a nuclear blast in nearly five years, they’ve almost certainly been busy at work on the countries’ weapons program.
“North Korean engineers have demonstrated remarkable ingenuity despite the constraints they work under and I think we underestimate them at our peril,” said Toby Dalton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, adding that the isolated country’s scientists were likely working on ways to produce explosions “with smaller amounts of fissile material in ways that could work with a lower-yield design.”
The North’s six previous nuclear blasts were of increasingly larger weapons, with its last test being what it called a thermonuclear weapon. Researchers have said that test was its most powerful explosion to date, with some estimating that it was equivalent to about 250 kilotons of TNT — or 16 times the size of the bomb the U.S. detonated over Hiroshima in World War II.
Kim provides guidance on his country’s nuclear weapons program in a photo released in September 2017. | KCNA / VIA REUTERS
According to data released in June by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the North is estimated to have assembled up to 20 nuclear warheads and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 45 to 55 warheads.
Stewart of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies said that the North could seek to accomplish a number of goals with any nuclear blast.
“There are a few different paths that testing could go down — it could be aimed at optimizing the use of tritium to boost a weapon design that uses less fissile material; or it could be to refine the design to optimize a secondary thermonuclear explosion,” Stewart said.
“In practice, any nuclear test is likely to contribute to both of these goals and more,” he added. “Nuclear tests tend to be about validating design assumptions and physics rather than demonstrating that any particular nuclear weapon detonates as expected.”
Whatever the endgame for Kim, Stewart noted that the North Koreans are unlikely to rely solely on the blast itself to convey their intended message.
“If North Korea wants to demonstrate something, they will generally not rely on the nuclear test alone; they often put out pictures of the weapons technology they are working on to show how advanced they are, which helps to reinforce the credibility of North Korea’s deterrent,” he said.
But Kim could also set the stage for a nuclear test with launches of some of the nation’s powerful ballistic missiles.
A media report Thursday said that U.S. and South Korean intelligence authorities had detected North Korean missile launchers positioned for firing, including a number of short-range weapons, suggesting a possible simultaneous test. Earlier reports quoting intelligence sources had also said apparent liquid fuel-injection activities had been spotted recently, a sign that the country could also test some of its mid- to long-range missiles.
“With (North Korea’s) celebratory milestones coming up, a nuclear test and intensified missile tests are very much on the cards,” said Andrew O’Neil, an expert on North Korea and a professor at Griffith University in Australia.
O’Neil, however, noted the lack of a quick response to the U.S.-South Korean exercises had caught him off-guard.
“I’m a little surprised that Pyongyang didn’t undertake missile tests to convey its view of the reinvigorated U.S.-(South Korea) joint military exercises,” he added. “That said, it could be that North Korea is taking Seoul’s potential military response more seriously.”
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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