Week of 7/1/2021

It is hard to believe that we are halfway through 2021. In many ways, this year has been better than we might have imagined. The Covid vaccines are a tremendous success story, with the daily death rate numbers telling a very compelling story. Countries like Singapore are considering policies to “live with Covid,” treating it like other diseases, such as flu and chickenpox. This is viable now because of the efficacy of vaccines in reducing both the rate and severity of Covid cases, allowing medical resources to remain within acceptable levels.

Many of you access online account information by visiting our website. For those that go directly to Investor360, please note that effective July 14, the address will be www.investor360.com instead of www.investor360.net. The Washington Post examines the Miami Beach condo collapse in as much detail as we’ve seen so far. It is a tragedy that will take a long time to fully explain. Research indicates a strong relationship between lead exposure and crime. Some have concluded that the benefits of lead remediation are more than double the cost. The Capitol Group (parent company of American Funds) explained why inflation may be higher than what has been priced into the market. We have expressed our belief that inflation increases reflect supply shocks caused by Covid and are not a long-term trend. The scenario they outline could come true if supply issues continue longer than expected. Regarding shocks and trends, Brad McMillan explains the difference here, focusing on inflation and with related comments on our labor market

Q: Some foreign governments have developed digital currencies. Shouldn’t the United States do the same thing to protect our place in the world economy? A: This is a complicated question, and we are not currency experts. We did find a timely speech by Randal Quarles, who has served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors since 2017. He provides some comprehensive answers that we found very illuminating. We recommend reading the speech, but here is his conclusion: …I emphasize three points. First, the U.S. dollar payment system is very good, and it is getting better. Second, the potential benefits of a Federal Reserve CBDC are unclear. Third, developing a CBDC could, I believe, pose considerable risks.

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