As Texas and the nation wrestles with the coronavirus outbreak, the Texas Capitol halls remain quiet.
While the Capitol is typically less hectic during the interim between legislative sessions and in late March after primary elections, it is especially quiet right now.
Driven by concerns about the coronavirus pandemic,
the Capitol was closed to the public at 8 a.m. on March 18.
This action comes after public tours were suspended, legislative interim hearings were cancelled, and some offices were closed. Many employees throughout state government are now working from home.
President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott have issued disaster declarations for both the United States and the state of Texas, paving the way for the flow of state and federal resources to battle the spread of COVID-19.
Still, political campaigns continue with the May 26 primary runoff elections on the horizon.
While primaries don’t always sort out who will hold office, they decide who the players will be in November. For Texas, there were few primary surprises on “Super Tuesday’’ on March 3, but some of the numbers were enlightening.
Each election cycle means change and this year five members of the Texas delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives, two state senators and 12 members of the Texas House of Representatives are retiring.
These numbers will likely change as the game of political musical chairs continues.
During this year’s primary, there were few surprise upsets, but four veteran state legislators were forced into May 26 runoffs. Those legislators were Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr., D-Brownsville, Rep. Dan Flynn, R-Van, Rep. J.D. Sheffield, R-Gatesville, and Rep. Harold Dutton, D-Houston. In the Democratic primary, MJ Hager and state Senator Royce West, D-Dallas, are in a runoff to take on Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn in November. The only surprise was the defeat of incumbent Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton by Jim Wright in the Republican primary.
Despite few upsets, the turnout numbers were high for Texas.
General voter turnout was more than 4.08 million Texans out of roughly 16 million registered voters, or 25.2 percent. This is slightly below the 2016 turnout of 4.2 million voters or 30.1 percent of registered voters. According to the Texas Secretary of State’s Office, 2,076 million Democrats voted in their primary, surpassing Republicans primary voters for the first time since 2008, with 2,008 million voters. Statewide, Democrats saw a 44 percent increase and Republicans a 12 percent increase over in primary turnout compared to 2018.
As primaries are run by each party, it’s impossible not to examine the results through the lens of partisan politics. As a result, turnout is often considered an indicator of party enthusiasm. Democrats were seemingly highly motivated by the high-profile multiple candidate presidential contest. However, primary turnout doesn’t always translate to victory in November. Democrat turnout hit a high-water mark in 2008 – 4.3 million voters or 33.23 percent of registered voters – in the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Although Obama won the presidency, he lost Texas to John McCain in the general election in November 2008.
Nevertheless, voter enthusiasm will certainly buoy Democrats’ hopes of making Texas more competitive and challenging for the U.S. Senate seat held by Cornyn, winning more congressional seats and possibly taking the Texas House, where Republicans hold a narrow 16 seat margin.
Of particular interest is the large urban to rural breakdown in primary results.
Texas’ 10 largest counties; Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, Hidalgo, Denton, El Paso and Ft. Bend accounted for more than half of all votes in the state. Specifically, 1,450 million votes by Democrats and 744,000 votes by Republicans for a total of 2,194 million voters in the 10 largest counties. This means that nearly two-thirds of Democrat votes came from these 10 large urban areas, while two-thirds of Republican votes came from more rural areas.
The concern for rural voters is the potential for growth in the electorate in urban centers that are growing faster than many less populous areas. According to the Texas Demographic Center, 84 percent of the Texas population is considered urban. In addition, this urban population will double in the next 40 years. Also, as voter turnout is considered more reliable in rural areas and lower in urban areas, there may be more ability to turn out new voters in these metropolitan areas.
This signals a decided decline in rural influence and will require new strategies and coalitions to ensure future rural success.
While there were few fireworks in the 2020 primary elections – other than the Democratic presidential race – the results indicate Texas will likely become more competitive. And the results all but guarantees an interesting election cycle in November.
