In This Issue:
- U.S. Rice Market Lacking Demand Especially for Milled Rice
- Washington DC Update
- USRPA Kicks Off Digital Campaign in Mexico
- USDA Announces Upcoming Changes to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Rice and Soybean Tables
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U.S. Rice Market Lacking Demand Especially for Milled Rice |
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The biggest news this week is the surprise tender from Iraq for 30,000 metric tons for quick delivery. While it’s been known for some time now that Iraq needed supplies, this announcement shows how desperate the situation is. To make matters worse, trying to acquire rice in such short order amid one of the most difficult shipping environments in years severely complicates their situation. What this means is that Pakistan is likely (and rumored) to win the first tranche of business, while the Iraqi Grain Board negotiates on the sidelines with other potential suppliers, some of which are listed below in the results from the original tender. Note that the US prices were the second-highest only to Paraguay, where Pakistan, along with its proximity, is the front-runner with the second-lowest price only to Thailand. More to come on this development, as the US rice industry desperately needs milled business. The U.S. – Iraq Memorandum of Understanding continues to be ineffective but we shall see if the political efforts bring much-needed results in the near future. |
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In Asia, the big news is Indonesia’s return to the import market, as BULOG is expecting to source up to 1 MMT in the coming year. This is “old hat” for those that remember when BULOG was consistently a large importer in years past, but in recent memory, they have enjoyed relative supply stability from their own domestic production. This will change this year and may have an impact on the pricing landscape of the Thai/Viet prices. Prices in Asia on the whole trended down this week, with Thai prices down to $487 PMT, Viet prices down to $495 PMT, Pakistan down to $428, and Myanmar holding constant at $440. This is expected in Myanmar though, as the coup has stalled any business or exchange for the time being. Much of the lag in Asian pricing can be attributed to a stronger dollar.
On the ground, rice planting is decidedly behind last year, and behind the 5-year average as well. Louisiana and Texas are leading the pack with 61% and 59% planted respectively, but this is compared to last year where they were 67% and 71% planted. Other states are barely worth a mention, but drier weather is expected in the coming weeks, and the expectation is for plantings to speed up. Texas is showing 32% emerged, and prices are relatively unchanged at $13.83/cwt. Louisiana is also holding steady, and the USDA is reporting 35% emergence, 7% behind last year. Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are all reporting prices around $13/cwt, and nothing in the realm of emergence to be reported this week.
Today’s USDA WASDE report is considered bearish for U.S. rice while indicating a 2020 carryover of 30.8 million hundredweights compared to 27.3 in the previous report. Export sales are down significantly, showing a 21% decline from last week, and 30% off of the four-week average. Vessel loadings weren’t any brighter, reporting in at a 51% drop-off from last week. Whereas the sales portion of this report is on account of high prices and low demand, the slow loadings are exacerbated by the logistics debacle that has marred 2021 thus far.
The Futures market was largely unchanged as prices basically matched last week’s figures. Average daily volume jumped 37% which would be more significant if the volume was higher, but as it stands, these metrics don’t provide much in the way of market projections.
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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates |
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for slightly lower supplies, reduced domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, entirely on reduced imports with all the decrease for long-grain on a lower than expected pace. |
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The House and Senate are in recess this week but a ruling by the Senate Parliamentarian on the use of another reconciliation measure is good news for President Biden’s infrastructure proposal and the ability of Senate Democrats to pass the proposal. A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced that the parliamentarian “has advised that a revised budget resolution may contain budget reconciliation instructions.” The ruling would allow Democrats to use the reconciliation process to move another bill with only majority support (51 votes). Although there are ongoing discussions surrounding the President’s infrastructure proposal, there is much skepticism on whether a bi-partisan proposal can be achieved. Although the reconciliation process is more constraining regarding matters that can be included a bill, the Parliamentarian’s ruling opens an additional pathway to passing an infrastructure proposal without support from Senate Republicans.
SNAP CONNECTION
USDA released a report this week which analyzes how the coronavirus, and the resulting U.S. economic contraction, has led to increased food assistance to U.S. households. Overall, an average of $8.4 billion in combined SNAP and P-EBT benefits were redeemed per month during the 6-month period of April through September 2020—an increase of 86.4 percent compared to the same period in 2019. The value of benefits redeemed online also grew quickly, from $2.9 million in February 2020 to $196.3 million in September 2020. By September, online redemptions accounted for 2.4 percent of the total value.
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USRPAKicks Off Digital Campaign in Mexico |
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The US Rice Producers Association, to continue the conversation that U.S. rice is nutritious and economical, recently kicked off its established digital media campaign for 2021 in Mexico. The digital campaign consists of the creation of digital content such as video recipes, mini rice facts memes, live content, and more shared on Facebook and Instagram.
The campaign features content created by Melissa Morelos, professional chef, influencer, and finalist of Master Chef Mexico, Chef Ismael Zhu, influencer, TV chef and winner of Master Chef Mexico, Pablo Marti, Chef, influencer, surfer, finalist of Master Chef Mexico and current contest of the reality TV show "Survivor," and Leon Michel, actor and TV host. Our team of content creators are sharing various recipes using U.S. long-grain rice as the main ingredient.
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The USRPA Facebook fan page of “Consume Arroz USA,” currently has 18,600 followers and 1,800 followers on Instagram. Likes, positive comments, and shares from followers on the various recipes, videos, nutritional and cooking tips, are spreading the message that U.S. long-grain rice can create simple, delicious, nutritious, and economical everyday meals!
The campaign will continue throughout the year on social media, always emphasizing the message of including U.S. long-grain rice in their everyday diet.
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USDA Announces Upcoming Changes to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Rice and Soybean Tables |
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WASHINGTON, April 8, 2021 – Starting with the May 12, 2021 release (issue No. 612), the following changes will be made to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report:
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U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (page 15): “Biofuel” will replace “Biodiesel” in the soybean oil section, reflecting recent changes to the monthly biofuels data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The WASDE will follow soybean oil used for biofuel as reported in the Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update - Table 2C (PDF, 287 KB).
- World Soybean Meal Supply and Use (page 29): Soybean meal supply and use for China will be presented separately.
- The U.S. Rice Supply and Use table (page 14): The table will include separate categories for U.S. imports of long-grain and combined medium and short-grain rice. The addition is made due to the significant rise in U.S. imports of long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice over the past decade.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is prepared monthly by the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board based on information from USDA and other domestic and foreign official sources. It includes forecasts for U.S. and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, palm), and cotton. U.S. coverage is extended to sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk.
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LAST DAYS OF
EARLY BIRD PRICING
Register by April 11
for only $600 USD
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Standard Registration (April 12 - June 6) = $800 USD
Late/Onsite Registration (Starts June 7) = $1,000 USD
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The Rice Market & Technology Convention
will take place in The Woodlands, Texas
July 6-8, 2021
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The Rice Market & Technology Convention is committed to the health and safety of its attendees and we will continue to follow CDC Guidance for Organizing Large Events and Gatherings. RMTC will provide attendees PPE such as masks and hand sanitizer, room layouts will be modified, and crowd limits will be enforced to adhere to the physical social distancing protocols.
Large, wide-open facilities and opportunities for outdoor gatherings make the Woodlands Resort the perfect place to network while allowing for social distancing.
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2021 National Trade Estimate Report on
FOREIGN TRADE BARRIERS
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The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is responsible for the preparation of this report. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai gratefully acknowledges the contributions of all USTR staff to the writing and production of this report and notes, in particular, the contributions of Julie McNees and Spencer Smith. |
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Post raises its estimate for MY 2020/21 milled rice production to 7.48 million metric tons MMT, consistent with the expansion of area paired with a return to trend yields. Post projects that milled rice production will grow to 7.82 MMT in MY 2020/21 (April 2021–March 2022).
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Burma’s rice and corn exports in MY 2021/22 are projected to grow due to recovery of production area and high price incentives.
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The Government of Indonesia (GOI) has announced intentions to import 1 million tons of rice in 2021 to maintain sufficient stock levels and stable prices.
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2021/22 domestic rice production is expected to jump 8 percent, driven by rising prices following low production in the prior year. Korea’s rice imports are consistently close to the 408,700 metric ton (MT) tariff rate quota (TRQ), due to exorbitantly high out of quota tariffs.
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The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on production and consumption of rice in the Dominican Republic. Production of milled rice for MY 2021/22 (July 2021/ June 2022) is forecast at 605,000 MT with expectations of normal rainfall patterns in the major production areas and increased availability of irrigation water
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Post forecasts MY 2021/2022 (October-September) rice production at 118 MMT from 44 million hectares with a trend yield of 4.02 MT/hectare. In MY 2020/2021, above-normal 2020 monsoon rains supported record yields. An increase in the government’s minimum support price program for rice next year will encourage farmers to favor rice over other crops.
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Low rainfall and lack of typhoons in 2020 will lead to reduced rice production in MY 2020/21. Rice stock levels are expected to draw down in 2021 and recover in 2022. As Taiwan holds high stock levels of rice, therefore total supply will be minimally affected.
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Arkansas Rice Update
By: Jarrod Hardke
and Scott Stiles
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“It’s time for a windfall and not a single moment too soon, I’ve been too long overdue now I’m gonna shoot the moon.” |
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Cornerstone
Trade Update
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Food & Ag Regulatory
and Policy Update
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25722 Kingsland Blvd.
Suite 203
Katy, TX 77494
p. (713) 974-7423
f. (713) 974-7696
e. info@usriceproducers.com
www.usriceproducers.org
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Send us updates, photos, questions or comments!
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USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423 |
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