February 23, 2021
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought and Water Monthly Webinar
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The ACF Basin is drought-free according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 2/18/2021).
Next month’s ACF Drought and Water Webinar is on Tuesday, March 23, 2021 at 1:00pm ET.
Register here for upcoming monthly webinars.
Sign up for ACF drought list here.
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February Key Points
ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks
- Major cold air outbreak and winter weather affected most of the central U.S. last week, more severe in Texas and Louisiana than in the ACF basin
- Disruptions in the polar vortex and negative AO to blame, looks to be returning to normal
- “Abnormally dry” (D0) over peninsular Florida, and even moderate drought over western Alabama
- Above normal rainfall at 7, 30, and 90 days across the Florida Panhandle, south Georgia, and the Carolinas
- ”La Nina Advisory” continues, 100% chance of continuing through winter, 65% through spring.
- CPC seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall
- Negative Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation overwhelmed typical La Nina impacts so far this winter, looks to be returning to normal
- Drought development less of a risk in the short term, later in Spring is still a risk
- State of Alabama - D0 has risen to 31% of state over the last few weeks while D1 is now at 5%. Minimal La Nina impacts to state so far. Alabama Drought Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) will meet on 3/9/2021 at 1pm (CT) via WebEx.
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts
- Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much above normal to normal range.
- The below normal 7-day average streamflow indicates that the ACF basin is hydrologically drought free.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal range.
- Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from high to much below normal, with most stations ranked in the above normal range.
- Ongoing minor flooding on the Apalachicola near Blountstown, FL
- Additional flooding threat in ACF next 10 days: low
- SERFC 1 month streamflow forecast - near normal, though above normal flows on far upper Chattahoochee
- SERFC 3 month streamflow forecast - near normal
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
- Inflows into the projects are normal/slightly above normal.
- Currently, projects are operating slightly above/right at winter pool elevations
- West Point began summer refill to elevation 635' on 15-FEB
- The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
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According to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 2/18/2020). |
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0% of the ACF Basin is in drought
31.3% of Alabama in D0 (Abnormally Dry)
5.2% of Alabama in D1 (Moderate Drought)
5.7% of Georgia in D0
32.8% of Florida in D0
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Lawn and Garden Moisture Index |
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February 22, 2021's Lawn and Garden Index from the University of Alabama at Huntsville displays s small area of dryness in south Central Alabama, predominately in Monroe County. |
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Rainfall Totals & Departures |
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7-Day Precipitation Totals |
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The past 7 days, most of the ACF Basin has received 1-2 inches of rainfall with some areas of 2+ inches in the FL panhandle and Central GA. Pockets of >.5 inches of rainfall in much of south Central AL. |
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30-Day Precipitation Totals |
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The past 30 days, much of the ACF has received over 5 inches of rainfall with some isolated areas in the lower to mid basin receiving >10 inches. The upper ACF received less rainfall (3-4 inches). |
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90-Day Precipitation Departures |
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The past 90 days, rainfall departures in the upper ACF are near normal, but the lower ACF is well above (2-8+ inches) normal.
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NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Mar - May) |
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The NOAA 3-month Seasonal Outlook (Mar.-May) favors above-normal temperatures and below normal rainfall.
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Streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much above normal to normal range.
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Flint River at Albany
28-Day Average Streamflows
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28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are in the above normal to normal range, 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are in the normal range, and the Apalachicola River flows are in the normal range. |
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Real-Time Groundwater Conditions |
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Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from high to much below normal, with most stations in the above normal range.
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(as of 2/22/2021)
Inflows into the projects are normal/slightly above normal with all projects operating slightly above or right at winter pool elevations. The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
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1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts |
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The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flow conditions, thought above normal flows on the far upper Chattahoochee. |
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The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flows. |
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Special Presentation:
Redesigned Drought.gov Walk-Thru
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- View Drought Conditions at a Higher Resolution Than Before (By Location or Search by City, Zip Code, or County)
- Interactive Data & Maps
- By Sector Section (based on user feedback
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Acknowledgments
Speakers
David Zierden, FSU
Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Cindy Donald, USACE-Mobile District
Jeff Dobur, SERFC
Kelsey Satalino, NIDIS
Summary prepared by:
Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
Resources
General Drought Information:
Drought Impact Reporter:
Southeast Climate Perspectives Map
General Climate and El Niño Information:
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
Groundwater Monitoring
Info on the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:
Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
10-Day Guidance Forecasts:
Official River Stage and Flow Forecasts:
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To join the ACF mailing list or for webinar-related questions,
please contact:
Rachel McGuire
334 844 1163
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