Topic:  Superforecasting

Making forecasts is critical to good decision-making. In his 2015 book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock describes how he created a team of “superforecasters” that beat intelligence professionals in their field of making predictions for world events. We will review the 10 laws of superforecasting, the traits of a good superforecaster, and explore how the superforecasting approach could be applied in a corporate setting.  

 

The book has rave reviews: Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal said it's "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow." Daniel Kahneman said: “Philip Tetlock is the world expert on a vital subject. Superforecasting is the wonderful story of how he and his research team got ordinary people to beat experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.”