The Lowry Letter®

Week of 7/14/2022

The Joes® are out of the office this week for an extended Lowry family get-together, but the Lowry Letter® carries on.

Seeing dolphins in the wild is always a neat experience. Maybe movies and TV have imbued a sense of their benevolence, although they can be dangerous. Dolphins have unique names, and scientists think they know how they choose them.

Late bloomers are everywhere. A high school dropout won mathematics highest honor, the Fields Medal.

Have you ever wondered about the origin of the phrase, “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch?” Wonder no more!

When looking for somewhere to eat, we often check reviews. One-star reviews often seem less helpful, and scammers are making that even more likely in this bit of bad news out of Miami.

In 1983, an author sued the New York Times for not being included on their best seller list, despite having enough book sales to qualify. NYT argued (and won the case) the list was not mathematically objective but was editorial content and thus protected under the Constitution as free speech.

Q: I think we are in a recession already and you don’t seem to agree. Why is that?

A: Brad McMillan explains why recession fears may be overstated, at least right now. Economic growth should continue, but headlines paint a darker picture than the data actually suggests.

Further supporting Brad’s points, last month’s job numbers were stronger than expected. This strengthens the case for continued economic growth. It also likely means more rate hikes by the Fed, as they try to respond to greater consumer purchasing power.

Recessions have always included job losses, and it is hard to see a recession occurring without increases in unemployment. Growth is slower, but slower growth is not the same thing as recession.

It is possible that continuing talk of recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as people who don’t “need” to curb spending act more defensively. It is also possible that Federal Reserve efforts to curb inflation (by reducing demand) go too far and lead to recession. The data will tell the story.