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Upward Trajectory in Visitor Arrivals
Erik Kloninger noted that over the Spring Break holiday, daily arrivals peaked at 68.0% of pre-pandemic levels before decreasing to about 50% by late April. Daily arrivals have risen sharply in May, the first demand spike not associated with a holiday, approaching the levels seen during the peak spring break travel period. With high vaccination rates and low infection rates in Hawaii’s core West Coast feeder markets, Hawaii’s domestic travel market has largely rebounded. Note the strong upward trend since the October reopening.
International Travelers Still Missing
With international travelers representing about 30% of Hawaii’s market, there will be a ceiling on the recovery until they return in large numbers. During Q1, statewide visitor arrivals equaled about 34% of pre-pandemic levels. The rebound has been primarily driven by the US West market area, where arrivals reached 56% of pre-pandemic levels for the quarter, followed by the US East at 43%. Japanese arrivals during Q1 were about 1% of the pre-pandemic level, while Canadian arrivals were about 2% of 2019’s Q1.
No Japanese until the Fall…or 2022?
For a variety of reasons, Japan’s effort to vaccinate its population has been a disaster. Japan will continue to require its citizens to quarantine upon return effectively shutting down outbound travel. This is bad news for Waikiki. Neighbor islands will recover as US visitors are returning. Waikiki will see continued discounting to make up for the lost Japanese market as hotels will compete for US visitors.

Hotel Revenue Managers Getting More Aggressive
Elizabeth Churchill has been tracking Expedia rates on large, oceanfront hotels in Waikiki since March. Over the last two months, we've seen a nearly 13% increase in offer prices. We suspect the strong increase in spring break visitors and stepped-up booking pace has made hotel managers more aggressive in their pricing strategy.

Hawaii Hotel Investment Market Awakening
Two Waikiki hotels are the first to test the post-pandemic market and we will see how bullish investors can be. The sellers are hoping that the unprecedented amount of liquidity in the system will prevail over concerns about the speed of the Hawaii hospitality recovery. With inflation rearing its head, real estate may be the place to be.
Last Month's Survey Results
We asked our readers when they thought Hawaii visitor arrivals would equal those of 2019. Over 50% of respondents voted for 2023.
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Survey Results

Last months' survey asked when you thought Hawaii's visitor industry would recover to 2019 levels. Over 50% of respondents said 2023.