Weekly Analyst Review

13 July 2022

Bottom Line Up Front

Mainstream media outlets continually report that "Islamic State is gone" or "Islamic State has been defeated;" however, the reality is that the Islamic State hasn't lost its status as the most deadly jihadist group in the world, but simply moved its expansion operations from Syria and Iraq to Africa.

In April 2022, TRAC noted Islamic State's steady expansion into Nigeria and that trend persisted over the next three months and June 2022 alone witnessed an overall increase of 6.5% in attacks in comparison to the previous month. Last month, Islamic State claimed just over 160 attacks in various locations around the world. While it is true that the high-activity areas of Iraq and Syria saw a significant decrease in attacks, the highest number of operations were carried out by the Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) and Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA).

The West and Central African region witnessed a drastic increase of 95% with 84 claimed attacks; that is over 1/2 of all the IS attacks worldwide in just the month of June 2022. Even though the Sahel and countries like Cameroon, Tanzania, Chad, and Somalia witnessed a lower number of attacks this month, TRAC argues that expansion of Islamic State activities in Africa in the upcoming weeks will dramatically escalate, especially since it has been identified by Islamic State Central Command as the new land of hijrah and jihad.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

RWE Telegram Channel Announces New Publication

"A Kali Yuga Survival Guide (AKYSG)" by Paul Waggener

Image: Partial cover of new Instructional Guide/Manifesto

A fairly new Telegram channel with a following likened to a cult-like fitness group, announced the upcoming release of a print offering by Paul Waggener that would include "a series of essays together, including unreleased transmissions from the early days, as well as brand new, unseen pieces." The announcement promises that the text will also include codes to video and audio files recorded by Waggener. It should be noted that this new publication, "A Kali Yuga Survival Guide (AKYSG)" will be contending in the competitive far-right extremist market place. The eco-fascist “Terrorgram Collective" have the imminent publication of "The Hard Reset" to be released 14 July 2022, notably for free.

TRAC Incident Report:

Prison Break at Milange District Prison in Zambezia

Province, Mozambique

Image: Milange District Prison, Zambezia Province, Mozambique

A prison break occurred on 12 July 2022 at the Milange District Prison in Zambezia Province, Mozambique. The prison, which housed 282 inmates, had only one guard. It is not known how many inmates escaped, but given the prison’s proximity to Nampula, it is likely that the prison held Al-Shabaab Cult / Islamic State fighters as well as other criminal elements. It should be noted that the escapees from the Milange prison are prime targets for recruitment into IS-Mozambique since they will feel gratitude for being freed and may feel obligated to join the ranks to those who helped facilitate the escape.

Islamic State’s weekly magazine, al-Naba, has previously focused on prison breaks and even advocates for them. As a result, TRAC has predicted a rise in prison breaks like the Kuje Prison break, outside Abuja, Nigeria on the night between 5 July and 6 July 2022 and the Sina’a Prison siege in Hasakah, Northeast Syria back in January 2022.

TRAC Incident Report:

The Mapuche Armed Resistance Launched Arson Attack on a Forestry Truck 40 Kilometers from Collipulli, La Araucanía Region, Chile

Image: Forestry truck that was set on fire

On 09 July 2022, an armed group shot at a forestry truck and forced the driver to stop in Collipulli, La Araucanía region. Subsequently, the unknown persons completely destroyed the vehicle by spraying it with fuel and setting it on fire. Carabineros arrived at the scene and found the driver who had managed to escape the attack and a piece of canvas, but they did not find the perpetrators of the act. The event is attributed to the Mapuche Armed Resistance and similar attacks have become frequent in the the same area.

Further, La Araucanía Region, Chile, has been long affected by conflict between the indigenous Mapuche and the Chilean government over inequality, land ownership, discrimination and cultural identity.

On Our Radar:

Video:

East Asia Knights (EAK) Unofficial Islamic State East Asia Media House Circulates Video Entitled: Believer's Jihad in East Asia - Mindanao, Philippines

Photo Report:

Brazilian Police Killed at Least Six Gunmen During a Shootout in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Video:

Terrorgram Shares Video & Instructions on how to Build a 3D Printed Weaponized Drone

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