We've come to the last day of April. Once the month closes, we'll be able to review the sales data for the whole month. Due to the delay between signing a purchase contract and closing the sale, only about 30 - 45% of the closed sales will come from contracts signed after 15Mar2020, when efforts to slow COVID-19 began to impact our lives. For this reason I've been tracking new pending sales weekly. Here's the latest look at that data:
- In the week from 22Apr2020 to 28Apr2020, there were 199 new pending sales.
- After two weeks of increasing pending sales, there was a slight decline (203 to 199).
- Next week while show whether this is a brief pause or we've arrived at a plateau. I would predict a pause, with renewed growth in the coming weeks.
- Current active listings of single family homes remain steady at 1040 as of 30Apr2020. It's been between 1009 and 1095 since 01Feb2020.
- At this rate, active inventory would be consumed in 5.2 weeks (1040/199), which is a seller's market.
- If the rate of new pending sales holds steady, inventory would have to grow to about 4000 before the market would be considered 'balanced'. It's hard to imagine that happening in less than a year.
- Reviewing closed sales over the past two weeks
- Contracts signed on or before 15Mar = 133
- Avg $/SF = $118.98, median $/SF = $109.53
- Contracts signed after 15Mar = 141
- Avg $/SF = $117.88, median $/SF = $107.27
So far, every indication is that sales volume is reduced, but inventory and sales prices are holding steady. This combination is fairly unique; typically a slow-down in sales volume would also cause an increase in inventory, and price decreases would follow. This hasn't been the case to date. If more people are forced to sell in the future, this dynamic would change. Please contact me if you have any questions at 513-830-8227 or
beppert@pivotrealty.com. I would be happy to discuss this further.
