AFSI Newsletter - November 2021
New Publication in the Journal Nature Food from the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains Project
As part of a multidisciplinary project jointly managed by the Agriculture & Food Systems Institute and University of Florida, an integrated modeling methodology that includes climate, crop, economic, and life cycle assessment (LCA) models was developed to identify and evaluate cost-effective adaptation and mitigation opportunities in current and future supply chains. “Supply Chains for Processed Potato and Tomato Products in the United States Will Have Enhanced Resilience with Planting Adaptation Strategies” is a research paper recently published in the scientific journal Nature Food. In this publication, the project team applies a novel integrated approach to identify climate adaptation and mitigation opportunities for potatoes and tomatoes, which are the most widely produced vegetable crops in the United States. The researchers found an unexpected resilience in processing potato and tomato supply chains projected through 2050, with the ensemble of crop models suggesting relatively small impacts on yield in current production areas as a result of increasing temperatures. 
A Few Caveats from the Authors
The paper’s findings are detailed in “New study predicts two popular American foods surprisingly resilient to climate change,” a blog post published by the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. The piece highlights not only the team’s methodology and results, but also important caveats to consider when interpreting these findings, including the crop modelling not accounting for extreme weather events or pest/disease pressures, as well as the researchers’ assumption of irrigation continuing to be fully available.

On the Subject of Irrigation
Dr. Dave Gustafson, the paper’s lead author, delves deeper into the issue of water availability in “Will I be able to get fries with that? A new approach for answering life’s big questions about the future of food,” a blog post published by the Washington State University Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources. The team found that water footprints of potato and tomato crops might decrease in the future, due to a combination of increased irrigation efficiency, the predicted effect of higher carbon dioxide levels on crop use of water, and shortened growing seasons. The post also highlights a series of previous pieces based on the project’s research, which discuss the remarkable resilience in investigated supply chains, surprising opportunity for food preparation methods to reduce carbon footprints, and the role consumer waste plays in environmental impact.

Beyond this Publication
The Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains Project is funded by a $3 million grant from the United States Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture (USDA NIFA). The project team has been working together since 2017 and includes scientists and extension specialists from the University of Florida, Agriculture & Food Systems Institute, Washington State University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, University of Illinois, and World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES). While not detailed in this newly published paper, the team has applied their integrated modeling methodology to carrots, green beans, spinach, strawberries, and sweet corn, in addition to potato and tomato. Their integrated methodology also has the potential to be applied to other crops and geographies, as well as health-based consumer scenarios.