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"America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand."
- President Harry S. Truman
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March 18, 2020 - A number of people seem to assume that we are heading for a recession and that home prices will fall. The first assumption is quite reasonable. The second assumption is based on fear and has little analytical data to back it up. Obviously anything can happen in a uncertain and disrupted world, but a fall in home prices is still looking very unlikely from today's numbers....
Total Listings Under Contract
Not declining at the moment Pending, UCB and CCBS listings were in line with 2018 as of last Saturday and 9.8% higher than this time last year. We are monitoring this figure closely for responses to current events and quarantines. Many of these properties had multiple offers on them when they went under contract; therefore, if they suffer a cancellation there's a high likelihood another buyer will scoop them up and place them back into a pending status.
Active Listings
Not rising at the moment. Meanwhile supply has stopped declining, which is a relief for many buyers. This is another measure we are watching closely. A slow down in new listings combined with a slow down in new contracts does not mean a crash, it's a holding pattern of sorts. Some sellers are waiting to list while others have gone temporarily off market. This will result in pent up supply that will be released when the "unknown" becomes "known". Real estate is a slow moving beast. Unlike what some may think, prices do not turn on a dime and sometimes situations change back so quickly the market doesn't even have a chance to respond to it one way or another. Current measures tell us demand is still much higher than supply and prices are projected to rise. Sign up for an event below to get briefed about other underlying market responses.
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