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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners


​Quotes of the Day:

“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” 
- Voltaire

“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”
- Major General Carl von Clausewitz

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices." 
- William James



1.  N.Korea Fires 2 Shells from Multiple Rocket Launcher
2. N. Korea hails ties with China as 'unbreakable' on bilateral alliance treaty anniversary
3. S. Korea, U.S., Japan vow to bolster cooperation on N. Korea
4. A Welcome Return to Trilateralism
5. New U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg starts his term in S. Korea
6. Top envoy says China policy is Korea's own, not the West's
7. Seoul warns Pyongyang to stop taking its assets
8. South Korea, US mull resumption of field training during allied drills next month
9. Hamhung labor camp inmate dies under mysterious circumstances
10. N. Hamgyong Province sacks several officials for making comments that caused "domestic unease"
11. N. Korean laborers in China suffer hardships despite easing of lockdowns
12. Face the facts but don't be overwhelmed by them (Korea financial markets)
13. China, N. Korea to upgrade ties to new level against US-led ‘encirclement campaign’
14. Yoon's symbolic in-office interviews put on pause. Why?
15. Tours to Panmunjom to resume July 12



1. N.Korea Fires 2 Shells from Multiple Rocket Launcher



N.Korea Fires 2 Shells from Multiple Rocket Launcher

July 11, 2022 13:22
North Korea fired two rounds from what is believed to be a multiple rocket launcher into the West Sea on Sunday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff here.
The JCS speculated that the rounds were not ballistic missiles but shells of less than 240-㎜ caliber.

North Korea fires multiple rocket launchers during a drill on March 9, 2020, in this photo from the Rodong Sinmun the following day.

"The South Korean military detected trajectories of rounds from what was presumed to be a North Korean MRL from around 6:21 p.m. to around 6:37 p.m. Sunday," the JCS told reporters hours after the firing. "The military is maintaining tight preparedness while enhancing vigilance and closely cooperating with the U.S."

They were fired from South Pyongan Province. The 240-㎜ MRL has a range of about 60 to 70 ㎞.

"The JCS did not publicize the firing immediately because the projectiles were not ballistic missiles," a military source said. It seems they were fired for training purposes.


2. N. Korea hails ties with China as 'unbreakable' on bilateral alliance treaty anniversary

Closer than lips and teeth. The only alliance the two countries have.


N. Korea hails ties with China as 'unbreakable' on bilateral alliance treaty anniversary | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · July 11, 2022
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, July 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Monday called its relations with China "unbreakable" as it marked the 61st anniversary of the signing of their alliance treaty.
An article carried by the Rodong Sinmun, the North's main newspaper, spoke highly of the bilateral relations while commemorating the "DPRK-China Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance" signed in 1961. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"The numerous meetings and talks held between respected Comrade Kim Jong-un with Comrade Xi Jinping in recent years have again demonstrated the great unity between the two countries, which was relentlessly forged into a friendly relationship that can withstand any storm and an invincible strategic relationship unbreakable by anything," it said.
The article also took aim at the United States and other "hostile forces," which it said regard North Korea and China as a "thorn in their eyes," claiming that they have been scheming to undermine the friendly relations and unity of the people of the two countries.
It said the North has a tradition of friendly ties with China formed under a common struggle and that relations between the neighboring countries will continue to develop to a new higher level under the spirit of their treaty.
On July 11, 1961, the two countries signed the bilateral treaty, under which they are obliged to provide military and other assistance to each other if attacked.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · July 11, 2022


3. S. Korea, U.S., Japan vow to bolster cooperation on N. Korea

I would just add these are just representative threats from north Korea, not the entire spectrum of threats.

Excerpts:
"U.S. Special Representative Kim reaffirmed the importance of enhancing trilateral security cooperation in the face of the DPRK's continued destabilizing and unlawful ballistic missile launches and committed to work closely to mitigate the threats posed by the DPRK's malicious cyber activity," department spokesperson Ned Price said in a press release. The DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
"They reiterated their commitment to a diplomatic path and called upon Pyongyang to return to dialogue," Ned added.


(LEAD) S. Korea, U.S., Japan vow to bolster cooperation on N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · July 11, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with Seoul envoy's meeting with Russian counterpart in last two paras; CHANGES dateline)
WASHINGTON/SEOUL, July 11 (Yonhap) -- The chief nuclear envoys of South Korea, the United States and Japan reaffirmed their shared commitment to a stronger trilateral cooperation against North Korea's threat during their meeting in Indonesia last week, according to the State Department on Sunday.
Kim Gunn, Seoul's new special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, on Friday met his U.S. counterpart, Sung Kim, and Japan's Takehiro Funakoshi on the resort island of Bali, where the Group of 20 (G-20) foreign ministers' session was held.
"U.S. Special Representative Kim reaffirmed the importance of enhancing trilateral security cooperation in the face of the DPRK's continued destabilizing and unlawful ballistic missile launches and committed to work closely to mitigate the threats posed by the DPRK's malicious cyber activity," department spokesperson Ned Price said in a press release. The DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
"They reiterated their commitment to a diplomatic path and called upon Pyongyang to return to dialogue," Ned added.

Kim, who assumed the post in May, also had his first in-person talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov there and asked for Moscow's constructive role in dealing with North Korea, according to Seoul's foreign ministry.
High-level consultations between the two nations have been hampered since Seoul's joining of international sanctions against Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine in February, but their top nuclear envoys have maintained contact to discuss issues related to Pyongyang.

ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · July 11, 2022


4. A Welcome Return to Trilateralism

Strongly concur with Dr. Cha's conclusion:

Antagonistic Seoul-Tokyo relations must become a thing of the past. If either Seoul or Tokyo thinks that it can continue the estrangement and rely on the U.S. to fill the gap, it is sadly mistaken. Japan and South Korea have enough potential threats to address without being at each other's throats all the time.


A Welcome Return to Trilateralism
By Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University, senior fellow in human freedom at George W. Bush Institute, and Korea chair at CSIS in Washington, D.C.

The trilateral summit between U.S. President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid last week may not seem like much. The leaders did not unveil a major agreement, the White House readout was barely a paragraph long, and there was no joint statement.
But in fact the three-way meeting marks an important effort at restoring normality in relations between Japan and South Korea after years of diplomatic freefall. The last time the three democratic leaders met like this was half decade ago. That type of gap should never occur again. Trilateral cooperation is vital for each leader strategically and good for the national security of all three countries.
For Biden, more cooperation with Japan and South Korea is good for his Indo-Pacific strategy of bringing together coalitions to address security challenges in Asia from China and North Korea. The U.S. is still pre-eminent in Asia, but it badly needs the support of key partners to buttress the rules-based international order. During the Donald Trump years, trilateralism was not really in the foreign policy vocabulary of the U.S., and Trump could not have cared less about Seoul-Tokyo bickering, reportedly deflecting any requests to intervene by saying, "Why do I have to get involved in everything?"
For Yoon, more trilateral cooperation fits well with the new government's desire to have a stronger position vis-à-vis China. Beijing treats Seoul shabbily whenever South Korea deals with China alone, but Beijing's attitudes improve markedly when it deals with a South Korea that has strong relations with Tokyo and Washington.
Trilateralism is also good for the Yoon administration's strategy to grow South Korea's role in regional institutions in Asia and global institutions. The notion among some in Seoul that there is no cost to South Korea for bad relations with Tokyo is wrong. Indeed, part of the reason that the previous government had no voice in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad or in the Indo-Pacific strategy was because of its poor relations with Japan, which was central to these initiatives. South Korea was left forced to deal with China all alone.
For Kishida, better trilateral relations put Japan in a stronger position with China and enhances regional deterrence with regard to Taiwan, something that Tokyo has been focused on since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Kishida's press statement in Madrid was the only one that did not evince positive vibes about the resumption of trilateral meetings, reflecting continued Japanese pique at the last South Korean government. It is time to get past this and focus on the next five years with Yoon.
This rapprochement could not have come at a better time because the external security environment, as one U.S. military leader recently said in private, is about the worst since World War II. In Asia, we are seeing security bifurcation with China, Russia, and North Korea defining one bloc, each committed to the other publicly like they have not been since the Cold War. Putin's war has shattered peace in Europe and threatened the rules-based order. The Ukraine war has spurred more determination from China with regard to its designs on Taiwan. If anything, Beijing probably sees its window of opportunity closing as the U.S. and others commit to improving Taiwan's defenses through the end of the decade.
The reality of China's plans to grow its nuclear weapons stockpiles significantly to 1,000 warheads by 2030 also sits on the security horizon. North Korea's weapons development, meanwhile, seems unstoppable at the moment as it has tested more ballistic missiles through the first-half of 2022 than in any other year.
Uncertainties about future U.S. politics weighs heavy on the regional security picture. While Biden's internationalism presents a welcome reprieve from Trump, there is no guarantee nativist "America First" will not rise again. In such an uncertain environment, dysfunctional U.S.-Japan-South Korea relations or poor Japan-South Korea bilateral relations are about the lowest-benefit, highest-risk policy that the three allies could pursue.
Biden, Yoon, and Kishida deserve credit for being very forward-looking in their support of trilateralism. But how can these directives be implemented by the three bureaucracies?
First, Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo should reinvigorate the Trilateral Consultations and Oversight Group (TCOG) that had been started by the Bill Clinton administration. The purpose of this group was to coordinate diplomacy on North Korea as well as to deal with potential contingencies arising from North Korean belligerence.
Second, the three allies should consider more cooperation on missile defense. This should include not just information sharing, but also active exercising that tracks and intercepts a simulated North Korean missile. The recent resumption of the "Pacific Dragon" drills is welcome, but the Yoon government must declare invalid the Moon Jae-in government's promise to China not to engage in missile defense cooperation with Japan and the U.S. trilaterally.
The third area of cooperation for the allies is on critical supply chains. Each government has made this a priority of their economic security policies. Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo should create a 2+2+2 dialogue on supply chains. The Biden-Yoon summit has already made reference to such aspirations. The recent membership of Seoul and Tokyo in the U.S.-led Minerals Security Partnership to create resilient supplies of rare earth minerals outside of China's control is an important step in this direction.
Fourth, the three allies need to cooperate more on extended deterrence. Both Seoul and Tokyo have concerns about the credibility of the U.S. security commitment in the face of growing North Korean and Chinese ballistic missile and nuclear threats. Involving both allies in a new nuclear planning group that looks at how to respond to North Korean tactical nuclear weapons would be one idea. Starting a trilateral forum that builds on the U.S.-South Korea EDSCG and the U.S.-Japan Extended Deterrence dialogue might be another.
Fifth, to improve transparency between South Korea and Japan, the three allies should consider a trilateral dialogue that shares defense modernization plans and defense spending priorities. This is important for avoiding insecurity spirals and misperceptions.
Finally, the U.S. should encourage South Korea and Japan to resolve the issue of compensating wartime forced labor through the establishment of a private fund, largely capitalized by South Korean businesses with some contributions from willing Japanese companies, to bypass South Korean court rulings. This admittedly is an imperfect solution. It does not meet South Korea's full desires to see Japan take responsibility for wartime atrocities, and it does not meet Japan's desires to have these issues settled once and for all. But compromise is necessary now.
Antagonistic Seoul-Tokyo relations must become a thing of the past. If either Seoul or Tokyo thinks that it can continue the estrangement and rely on the U.S. to fill the gap, it is sadly mistaken. Japan and South Korea have enough potential threats to address without being at each other's throats all the time.

5. New U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg starts his term in S. Korea

Excerpt:

Mr. Goldberg is a well-known diplomatic veteran with the highest title of career ambassador among diplomats. He is the first career ambassador to be appointed U.S. ambassador to South Korea in seven years since former ambassador Sung Kim, the incumbent US special envoy for North Korea, came to the country.


New U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg starts his term in S. Korea
Posted July. 11, 2022 08:26,
Updated July. 11, 2022 08:26
New U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg starts his term in S. Korea. July. 11, 2022 08:26. by Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com.
Philip Goldberg, the new U.S. ambassador to South Korea, arrived in Seoul on Sunday, filling the gaps left open for the past one and a half years since his predecessor Harry Harris left the country last January.

Before leaving for Seoul, Ambassador Goldberg briefly told reporters upon his arrival at Incheon International Airport that he is pleased to arrive in Seoul.

Mr. Goldberg is considered one of the key hawkish leaders who engaged deeply in executing sanctions on North Korea during the Obama administration. Serving as the coordinator for U.N. sanctions on North Korea in the U.S. State Department from 2009 to 2010, he took the helm of executing the U.N. resolution No. 1874 on North Korea adopted following the regime’s 2nd nuclear test in May 2009.

Back then, he called on China to join the North Korea sanctions, emphasizing the principle of raising a unified voice with a unified purpose in mind. In April, he defined North Korea as a “rogue regime” in his confirmation hearing in the Senate Committee on Foreign Services, stating that Washington should maintain a firm and constant viewpoint of CVID or complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program.

Mr. Goldberg is a well-known diplomatic veteran with the highest title of career ambassador among diplomats. He is the first career ambassador to be appointed U.S. ambassador to South Korea in seven years since former ambassador Sung Kim, the incumbent US special envoy for North Korea, came to the country.

6. Top envoy says China policy is Korea's own, not the West's

Good statement from MInister Pak Jin. South Korea must act in its best interests (and it is). It just so happens that the ROK is a member of the community of democracies and the rules based international order is something the ROK supports because it is in its best interest for national security and national prosperity.



Monday
July 11, 2022

Top envoy says China policy is Korea's own, not the West's

Foreign Minister Park Jin speaks with the press at the ministry headquarters in Seoul on Monday. [YONHAP]
Korea will have its own policy on its neighbor, China, based on mutual respect and trust, said Foreign Minister Park Jin on Monday -- not driven by the West.
 
“It’s not about tailoring our policies to the West’s,” Park told the press at the ministry headquarters in Seoul on Monday, in response to a question about the Yoon Suk-yeol government’s policy toward China. 
 
“I could only imagine our relationship developing further when China respects Korea and when Korea understands where China is coming from,” Park said, recalling a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministerial summit in Indonesia last Thursday.
 
In that meeting, Wang mentioned “rampant unilateral acts and deluging power politics and bullying,” according to China’s Foreign Ministry, likely alluding to the recent NATO summit in Madrid and U.S.-led initiatives in the region such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework established in May.
 
He was quoted by the ministry to have said that it is important to prevent “the resurgence of the Cold War mentality in the region” and avoid “major power confrontation and bloc politics.”
 
Park, in response, was cited by his ministry to have expressed his hopes that the Korea-China relations would “develop based on the universal values and norms,” so that the two nations can contribute together to regional peace and prosperity.
 
In the press conference Monday, Park stressed the importance of Korea’s trust-based ties with China, especially in the context of denuclearization of North Korea.
 
“Since North Korea is unlikely to denuclearize on its own, we should create an environment that leads North Korea to choose denuclearization,” Park said. “We will use options such as deterrence, sanctions, pressure and dialogue, in a balanced manner, for that goal. This is something that we have discussed in recent Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral summits, and for which we have also asked China and Russia to play a constructive role.”
 
Both China and Russia vetoed a U.S.-led resolution at the UN to place additional sanctions on the North in May following its repeated ballistic missile launches. 
 
Pyongyang was estimated to have completed weeks ago its preparations for another nuclear test, which would be its seventh.
 
But the Chinese Communist Party is having its 20th National Congress in the autumn, and Pyongyang may want to avoid causing Beijing, its major economic and political ally, embarrassment.
 
In a show of force against the threat, Washington and Seoul ramped up security and defense exercises recently, bringing American stealth warplanes into Korea for the first time in five years in the form of six F-35A fighter jets. 
 
“The international resolve to prevent further North Korean military provocations is stronger than the North’s resolve to continue its development of its nuclear program,” Park said on Monday.
 
“We are hoping to prevent further provocations from the North and encourage the North to return to diplomacy and the negotiation table.”
 

BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]


7. Seoul warns Pyongyang to stop taking its assets

It is difficult to trust north Korea since it does not act as a responsible member of the international community.


Monday
July 11, 2022

Seoul warns Pyongyang to stop taking its assets

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the Mount Kumgang tourist resort in an undated photo released by the Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 23, 2019. The rust-covered Haegumgang Hotel is seen in the background. [YONHAP]
 
Seoul slammed Pyongyang for expropriating South Korean assets in the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mount Kumgang tourism area, urging it to stop.  
 
Speaking at a regular press briefing, Unification Ministry spokesman Cho Joong-hoon said Seoul expresses “deep regret” over North Korea’s actions, which he called “a clear violation” of inter-Korean agreements as well as “an infringement of South Korean nationals’ property rights.”
 
Cho added that infringements of South Korean assets, including the dismantlement of tourism facilities in the Mount Kumgang resort, had been going on since March. 
 
Satellite imagery taken between March 5 and 9 showed signs that North Korea was dismantling a floating hotel formerly operated by South Korean company Hyundai Asan at the resort.
 
The Unification Ministry spokesman noted that there were signs that the North was operating vehicles without authorization within the Kaesong Industrial Complex, such as a commuter bus that was spotted in North Korean news footage broadcast last week.
 
The spokesman warned the North that Seoul is “constantly monitoring” the North’s use of South Korean facilities of Mount Kumgang and the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
 
“The government urges the North to immediately stop all such actions and makes it clear that all responsibility in this regard rests entirely with North Korea,” he said.
 
The Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mount Kumgang resort were fruits of the Sunshine Policy advocated by liberal South Korean presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun to achieve reconciliation through economic cooperation with the North.
 
Factories in the Kaesong Industrial Complex were staffed mostly by North Korean workers, with operations overseen by South Korean managers.
 
The Mount Kumgang resort, which opened in 2002, catered mostly to South Korean visitors, but Seoul suspended tours after North Korean soldiers fatally shot a 53-year-old South Korean tourist who strayed into a nearby military area in 2008.
 
North Korean state media reported in October 2019 that leader Kim Jong-un wanted to demolish what he called “unpleasant-looking” facilities at the resort, saying they should be removed and rebuilt to “meet [North Korea's] own sentiment and aesthetic taste.”
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

8. South Korea, US mull resumption of field training during allied drills next month

I hope there is no mulling about the exercises. We need to conduct the exercise. Full stop. But it does provide an opportunity to add on field training exercises as it has done in the past. But the core exercise is a computer simulation.


The problem is that this exercise has always been a theater level command post computer simulation exercise. It was so when I participated in it through the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. There have been simultaneous field training exercises over the years but the main exercise Ulchi Focus Lens, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, and Dong Meng XX-X has always been a computer simulation exercise for the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters and its component headquarters. If it is advertised again as one people will wrongly assume the exercise has not returned to its full scale level. Most of the press, pundits, and politicians have no idea about multi-echelon training and what type of training is appropriate at each echelon of command and organization and they routinely debunk the value and importance of computer simulations for high level headquarters and commanders and staffs.

We need a strong information and influence activities campaign built around the exercise to support deterrence and defense (as well as to show Kim Jong Un that his political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and military strategies cannot be successful). And we should be executing it now. We must seize the initiative and put forth our correct narrative and not allow the press, pundits, and the north's Propaganda and Agitation Department to shape it.


South Korea, US mull resumption of field training during allied drills next month
The Korea Times · July 11, 2022
A military helicopter flies over U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, April 18, during joint exercises with South Korea. Yonhap

South Korea and the United States are considering resumption of combined field training during their regular military exercise set for next month, informed sources said Monday, as the allies are striving to sharpen deterrence against North Korea's evolving threats.

Seoul and Washington have been weighing the idea of conducting field maneuvers during their combined command post training (CCPT) scheduled to take place from Aug. 22 to Sept. 1, according to the sources.

Under the preceding liberal Moon Jae-in administration, the allies refrained from holding large-scale field training in tandem with their semi-annual CCPT using computer simulation, in apparent efforts to facilitate diplomacy with Pyongyang.
The allies' new move came in line with an agreement from the May summit between President Yoon Suk-yeol and his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, to begin dialogue on expanding the "scope and scale" of combined drills on and around the Korean Peninsula.

During next month's exercise, the South and the U.S. also plan to hold the full operational capability (FOC) assessment, the second part of the three-stage program designed to vet Seoul's capabilities to lead the allies' combined forces.
The FOC assessment is a key procedure for the envisioned transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from Washington to Seoul. The two sides agreed last year to hold the FOC assessment during their defense ministerial talks in Seoul. (Yonhap)


The Korea Times · July 11, 2022



9. Hamhung labor camp inmate dies under mysterious circumstances

Just pure evil.

Excerpts:
Her husband, who lives in Hoeryong, had been unable to see his wife for a year due to COVID-19, so in mid-June, he visited the camp with some cornmeal mixed with sugar and innerwear he prepared to give her.
However, his wife was already dead, and so he simply returned home with nothing other than the news of her passing.
Her husband asked the camp authorities when she died, what she died from, and if he could retrieve her body. But camp officials scolded him for asking so many questions, telling him he “should be grateful that they even told him she was dead.”
“Since COVID-19, even ordinary people have been having a hellish time trying to make ends meet, let alone people in prison for crimes,” said the source. “Many prisoners surely must have died unnatural deaths, unable to eat or dress properly and under surveillance from guards.


Hamhung labor camp inmate dies under mysterious circumstances - Daily NK
The inmate had worked as a people smuggler from 2012 to September of 2015 before being busted by the Ministry of State Security, a source told Daily NK
By Lee Chae Un - 2022.07.11 4:34pm
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 11, 2022
A view of Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province, in 2011. (Jen Morgan, Flickr, Creative Commons)
A female inmate in her 40s recently died at Hamhung Correctional Labor Camp in South Hamgyong Province. However, the camp reportedly provided her bereaved family members no basic information regarding her death, including when she died, the cause of death or what happened to the body.
A source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Friday that a resident of Hoeryong went to the camp late last month to meet his wife, who was incarcerated at the facility for human trafficking, only to learn that she had died.
“However, the camp did not tell him the cause of death, and it did not return the body,” said the source.
In North Korea, prisoners sentenced to time in correctional labor camps are stripped of their civil rights. If they die in the camps, their bodies are not returned to the families, but rather processed inside the camps as “criminals who have yet to cleanse themselves of their crimes.”
According to the source, the woman who died had worked as a so-called “human trafficking broker” who smuggled people to China from 2012 to September of 2015 before being busted by the Ministry of State Security. She was exposed when one of the people she smuggled to China was repatriated to North Korea after being caught by Chinese security agents.
She was sentenced to correctional labor on June 10, 2016, following an eight month investigation, and sent to Hamhung Correctional Labor Camp. She had been an inmate there for several years prior to her death.
Her husband, who lives in Hoeryong, had been unable to see his wife for a year due to COVID-19, so in mid-June, he visited the camp with some cornmeal mixed with sugar and innerwear he prepared to give her.
However, his wife was already dead, and so he simply returned home with nothing other than the news of her passing.
Her husband asked the camp authorities when she died, what she died from, and if he could retrieve her body. But camp officials scolded him for asking so many questions, telling him he “should be grateful that they even told him she was dead.”
“Since COVID-19, even ordinary people have been having a hellish time trying to make ends meet, let alone people in prison for crimes,” said the source. “Many prisoners surely must have died unnatural deaths, unable to eat or dress properly and under surveillance from guards.
“Prison [in North Korea] is literally no different from hell,” he continued, adding, “If the family is well off, they can frequently meet [incarcerated relatives] and take care of their health, but for prisoners with families that cannot often meet, they are simply dying.”
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 11, 2022


10. N. Hamgyong Province sacks several officials for making comments that caused "domestic unease"

Never deviate from regime and party talking points.

Excerpts:
The Ministry of State Security reported these comments to the provincial party committee, which then moved to fire the officials. The committee placed blame on the comments made by the officials for people refusing to take folk remedies as instructed by the government, leading their diseases to worsen.
While punishing the officials for their inappropriate comments, the committee praised the “wise anti-epidemic policies, regulations and measures of the party and state” for North Korea’s supposedly successful quarantine efforts over the last two years, and for bringing the latest outbreak under control after launching the so-called “maximum emergency epidemic prevention system.”
“The provincial party committee called for elevating the role of each emergency anti-epidemic command, while calling on health officials to have faith in party policy, remain vigilant and do everything they can to protect the lives of the people since the malignant infectious disease [COVID-19] could merge with seasonal diseases between now and autumn,” the source said.


N. Hamgyong Province sacks several officials for making comments that caused "domestic unease" - Daily NK
The officials were accused of causing public fear by saying things like “countless” people are dying overseas from COVID-19, a source told Daily NK
By Jong So Yong - 2022.07.11 2:57pm
dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · July 11, 2022
A photo published in state media on May 31 of North Korean officials wearing protective suits. (Rodong Sinmun-News1)
During reviews of emergency quarantine efforts, the party committee of North Hamgyong Province recently sacked several officials for causing “domestic unease” with ill-advised comments.
A source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Thursday that the provincial party committee conducted reviews of emergency quarantine efforts within the province since May 12 — when news of North Korea’s first publicly acknowledged COVID-19 outbreak broke — in accordance with orders from the central government.
Taking direct part in city and county emergency quarantine meetings, party officials punished all officials who behaved outside of party principles, he added.
According to the source, the provincial party — carrying out reviews late last month — pointed out and punished officials accused of causing public fear and unease through comments based on arbitrary analysis and unscientific conclusions during their emergency quarantine activities.
Hoeryong, Onsong County, Kyongsong County and Yonsa County emerged as problems during the reviews. Guiding local meetings, provincial party officials pointed out the errors of leading health officials, including the directors and technology directors of local hospitals, sacking them and replacing them on the spot with new cadres.
Health officials in the four jurisdictions were reportedly criticized for “inappropriate” comments like “we need to import vaccines from overseas,” “there’s nothing our country can do about this disease,” “our country’s healthcare system is so outdated that even fever medicine is in short supply,” and “no doctor schooled in modern medicine would tell immuno-compromised people to boil or eat medicinal herbs.”
In particular, the committee took bigger issue with how certain officials caused public fear by saying things like “countless” people are dying overseas from COVID-19, that COVID-19 is a “scary disease that unconditionally results in death,” or that “even if you survive, the aftereffects are serious.”
The Ministry of State Security reported these comments to the provincial party committee, which then moved to fire the officials. The committee placed blame on the comments made by the officials for people refusing to take folk remedies as instructed by the government, leading their diseases to worsen.
While punishing the officials for their inappropriate comments, the committee praised the “wise anti-epidemic policies, regulations and measures of the party and state” for North Korea’s supposedly successful quarantine efforts over the last two years, and for bringing the latest outbreak under control after launching the so-called “maximum emergency epidemic prevention system.”
“The provincial party committee called for elevating the role of each emergency anti-epidemic command, while calling on health officials to have faith in party policy, remain vigilant and do everything they can to protect the lives of the people since the malignant infectious disease [COVID-19] could merge with seasonal diseases between now and autumn,” the source said.
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · July 11, 2022


11. N. Korean laborers in China suffer hardships despite easing of lockdowns

So much suffering among the Korean people in and. from the north.



N. Korean laborers in China suffer hardships despite easing of lockdowns - Daily NK
Young female laborers in their 20s and 30s often face embarrassment due to a lack of tampons
By Seulkee Jang - 2022.07.11 5:00pm
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 11, 2022
FILE PHOTO: North Korean workers at a clothing factory in China's Jilin Province. (Daily NK)
North Korean laborers in China are suffering hardships despite the easing of lockdowns in Chinese cities, Daily NK has learned.
According to multiple sources in China on Thursday, North Korean laborers in Dandong, China have not made enough income due to lack of work.
As a result, many of the workers are suffering hardships, unable to purchase foodstuffs or daily necessities.
A Daily NK investigation revealed that at one manufacturing plant in the Chinese city of Dandong, North Korean workers have been taking home less than RMB 150 (around USD 22) a month for the last several months.
Not only is there not enough work, but workers must pay party contributions, Socialist Women’s Union of Korea dues and fees for criticism sessions, leaving almost nothing to take home.
Moreover, with the price of rice, vegetables and other foodstuffs skyrocketing due to the lockdowns, workers are eating poorly.
Not only are they having a tough time getting their hands on eggs, meat or other high protein foods, but even vegetable side dishes are in short supply, with workers barely staving off hunger.
Among themselves, some workers complain, “Whether it’s in the motherland [North Korea] or China, the food sucks all the same,” and, “We’ve been in prison for over two years, unable to leave our dormitories, because of the coronavirus.”
Moreover, with workers earning so much less, they face shortages of not only foodstuffs, but also of basic necessities such as toilet paper, shampoo and soap. Unable to obtain these necessities, many workers simply rinse their hair and bodies with water when they shower.
In particular, young female laborers in their 20s and 30s often face embarrassment due to a lack of tampons.
Moreover, with drugs in short supply, they cannot take medicine even if they fall sick. Instead, they often rely on natural healing. This is to say, short of really serious cases that involve a trip to the emergency room, they receive no medical treatment.
This being the case, many workers complain of frustration or lethargic depression. The workers may not have been diagnosed with depression, medically speaking, but the mood in the dormitory where they stay is pretty dour, one of the sources said.
“With little work coming their way so far, the workers aren’t making much, so they are hoping that work will increase as the coronavirus lockdowns are lifted,” he said, adding, “However, above all else, I think the workers can recover their vitality once they receive proper food and necessities.”
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 11, 2022


12. Face the facts but don't be overwhelmed by them (Korea financial markets)


An interesting application of Stoicism (though not specifically stated) through the historical example of Admiral James Stockdale applied to the Korean financial markets.

Excerpts:

Meanwhile, uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets can be expected to last longer. The KOSPI fell 41 percent during the global financial crisis in 2008. So far this year, the KOSPI has declined 30.2 percent from its most recent peak and could drop further depending on the stress scenario.

All that said, we may not need to be too pessimistic about all this bad news. Actually, it appears to us that the financial market has already priced in a very tough economic outlook. Barring some unexpected shocks and worse economic readings than are currently expected by markets, we do not expect the financial market to face a further substantial hit from here onwards.

The current economic environment and incoming economic data signal recessionary pressure within a year. We should therefore prepare for this eventuality, while also guarding against becoming too pessimistic, as excessive pessimism could create a self-fulfilling recession by depressing consumption and investment incentives too severely.

We need to ensure that cool heads prevail when judging the state of the economy and keep hope alive that a positive economic cycle will be around the corner when we reach the bottom of the current economic cycle.






Face the facts but don't be overwhelmed by them
The Korea Times · July 11, 2022
By Park Chong-hoon

The "Stockdale paradox" is about conflicting duality: accepting the brutal facts of reality but maintaining an unwavering faith in the endgame. Jim Stockdale, a high-ranking U.S. navy officer, survived an eight-year imprisonment in Hanoi during the Vietnam War without giving up hope of freedom while facing the brutal fact that he would not be returning home any time soon, and definitely not for Christmas that year.

We hear plenty of bad news about the economy these days. The KOSPI is down 21.40 percent, the Kosdaq has declined 25.82 percent and the Korean won has depreciated by 114.02 year to date. The benchmark interest rate has risen 75 basis points from the start of 2022 and is likely to increase to at least 1 percent by the end of the year.

Rising interest rates increase household debt payment burdens ― and especially the interest burden on young people who have bought homes. This raises concerns over a looming financial crisis caused by household debt. We probably have not seen the bottom of the downturn and the worst still lies ahead in the second half of the year.

When fears of such mounting uncertainties strike, we need to return to the lesson learnt from Jim Stockdale. We must try not to be too pessimistic and give up hope for the economy, but rather to make an honest assessment of the economic situation. We can relieve anxiety about the future if we anticipate the worst of the current crisis ― only then would we be able to grasp how and when things might change and improve. If we can gauge how long the bad news will persist, we may be less vulnerable to market uncertainties.

So, what are these brutal economic facts that we must face for the second half of 2022?

For one, high inflation is unlikely to ease in the near future in spite of rapid rate hikes. The central bank can control inflation through interest rate hikes if the reason is demand-pull, thus depressing consumption incentives with higher rates. On the other hand, the central bank would find cost-push inflation difficult to control.

On the other hand, excessively-rapid rate hikes could limit money supply, which reduces companies' investment and production incentive, which could increase inflationary pressure by lowering production and thus constricting supply. Given cost-push factors ― such as supply bottlenecks and rising commodity prices due to China's COVID lockdowns and the Ukraine invasion ― are at play in the current environment, we do not expect high inflation to be resolved in a short period.

June inflation was over 6 percent for the first time since 1998 and we expect it to stay above 5 percent until the third quarter. Because Korea imports commodities and agricultural products, it is likely to suffer more than other economies. Moreover, rising imports will probably weaken the won, thus driving inflation further higher.

Faced with high inflation, the central bank may be compelled to hike the base interest rate continuously. It will also need to control inflation expectations, as an increase in inflation expectations could make high inflation self-fulfilling. As most central banks appear to have misjudged the current inflationary environment as transient, they may need to hike rates until inflation is forced to a peak as soon as possible.

This reasoning may explain why some market participants expect the U.S. Fed to undertake a substantial rate hike of 75 basis points in July and the Bank of Korea by 50 basis points for the first time since it adopted the current inflation-targeting monetary policy.

The economy is likely to slow down in a steep rate-hiking cycle and will be unable to register continued growth. Rising interest rates hurt corporate profitability, reducing their investment incentive. Furthermore, they force wealthier households to save more and less wealthy households to spend less due to household debt interest payments.

This increases downward pressure on the economy as investment and consumption both shrink. Even though an accommodative monetary policy will be needed to turn the economy around, central banks will be unable to deploy this policy, as inflation remains high and rate-hiking cycles are well underway. Perhaps a much earlier start to a rate hike would have eased the path to taming inflation, but as it stands, we must now face the risk of a global economic slowdown.

Signs of a growth downturn are becoming clearer. Korean exports grew less than 4 percent year-on-year in June after enjoying double-digit growth in the past year. Some global economies look likely to experience a recession within a year and Korea will not be immune to the rising risk of a global slowdown.

Meanwhile, uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets can be expected to last longer. The KOSPI fell 41 percent during the global financial crisis in 2008. So far this year, the KOSPI has declined 30.2 percent from its most recent peak and could drop further depending on the stress scenario.

All that said, we may not need to be too pessimistic about all this bad news. Actually, it appears to us that the financial market has already priced in a very tough economic outlook. Barring some unexpected shocks and worse economic readings than are currently expected by markets, we do not expect the financial market to face a further substantial hit from here onwards.

The current economic environment and incoming economic data signal recessionary pressure within a year. We should therefore prepare for this eventuality, while also guarding against becoming too pessimistic, as excessive pessimism could create a self-fulfilling recession by depressing consumption and investment incentives too severely.

We need to ensure that cool heads prevail when judging the state of the economy and keep hope alive that a positive economic cycle will be around the corner when we reach the bottom of the current economic cycle.

Park Chong-hoon (ChongHoon.Park@sc.com) currently heads the Korea Research Team at Standard Chartered Korea. Before joining the bank, he worked as a senior research fellow and head of telecommunication policy at the Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI).


The Korea Times · July 11, 2022

13. China, N. Korea to upgrade ties to new level against US-led ‘encirclement campaign’

Solidarity with Russia too.

Excerpts:

North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday also released a statement supporting Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine on its official website, labeling it as a “special military operation in Ukraine to protect national security and the rights and interests of compatriots.”

The ministry lambasted the US and its allies for ramping up sanctions on Russia, claiming that the US-led pressure campaign has caused adverse impacts on the socioeconomic situation in western countries.

“Nothing can defeat the aim and will of the Russian people to pioneer their own path of development by themselves without being swayed by any pressure and blackmail,” the statement written by Kim Jong-gyu, president of the Korea-Russia Association for Promotion of Exchange and Cooperation, read.

“We send our full strong support to and show solidarity for the struggle of the Russian government and people to stand up to the US racket of anachronistic sanctions and pressure.”


China, N. Korea to upgrade ties to new level against US-led ‘encirclement campaign’
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · July 11, 2022
Strategic significance of bilateral treaty has grown in complicated external situations: Rodong Sinmun
Published : Jul 11, 2022 - 17:19 Updated : Jul 11, 2022 - 17:30
(123rf)
China and North Korea will constantly strengthen and develop their bilateral relations to a new and higher level in “unprecedented harsh circumstances,” including the US-led campaign to encircle China, the North Korean media said Monday. It also highlighted the significance of the close bond between North Korea and China.

The Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, published an article commemorating the 61st anniversary of the “Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance” signed by China and North Korea on July 11, 1961.

The North Korean newspaper underscored that the “strategic significance and viability of the treaty has been magnified day by day in today’s complicated situations,” although around 60 years have passed since the signing of the bilateral treaty.

“Hostile forces including the United States, which regard the DPRK and China as thorns in their sides, are frantic about forming an omnidirectional encirclement of China to suppress China’s development,” the Rodong Sinmun said, referring to North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “They are also tenaciously scheming to break down the friendship and unity between the DPRK and China.”

The newspaper underlined the importance of further reinforcing bilateral ties against the US-led campaign to ramp up pressure on China and undermine the solidarity between China and North Korea, which “have been vigorously moving forward on the sole path to socialism.”

“Despite the global health crisis and unprecedented harsh circumstances, the relationship between the DPRK and China will be incessantly strengthened and developed into a new, higher level in line with the mission and spirit of the treaty,” the article read.

The article said that the bilateral treaty marked an “important milestone in strengthening strategic cooperation between the two countries.”

The bilateral treaty includes an article that legitimizes automatic intervention in case of a war outbreak on the Korean Peninsula, according to information from a database provided by South Korea’s Unification Ministry.

The mutual defense provision also provides a basis for China to interfere in the event of internal crises such as the absence of the North Korean leader.
Article 2 stipulates that both sides are obligated to adopt all measures including military assistance if one side is being subjected to an “armed attack.”

Triangular alignment
The Rodong Sinmun also underscored that bilateral ties have developed to a higher level based on the close relationship between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

The Kim-Xi summits in recent years have demonstrated the two countries’ “friendly relationship that can withstand any storm and an invincible strategic relationship unbreakable by anything.”

The two leaders have further solidified their mutual confidence and friendship and developed bilateral relations between the two countries this year by exchanging personal letters on various occasions, including the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.

The party organ said North Korea will also continue to send its “full support to all measures taken by the Chinese party and the government to protect the country’s core interests, national development, and people’s life and safety.”

North Korea has sought to show off its triangular alignment with China and Russia as the US has faced intensifying conflict with the two countries.

Against that backdrop, North Korea has recently stepped up its criticism of the US Biden administration’s initiative to rally its allies to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and deter Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

North Korea’s external-oriented outlets — which mainly target foreign audiences — have frequently issued statements condemning the US Indo-Pacific engagement strategy as one that concurrently targets China, North Korea and Russia.

An unnamed spokesperson for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry denounced the US on July 3 for capitalizing on the recent NATO summit in Madrid to “simultaneously suppress and encircle Russia and China” by establishing an Asia-Pacific version of NATO.

The spokesperson’s statement also claimed that the US is seeking to forge a “triangular military alliance” among the US, Japan and South Korea as an important means to achieve this goal.

North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday also released a statement supporting Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine on its official website, labeling it as a “special military operation in Ukraine to protect national security and the rights and interests of compatriots.”

The ministry lambasted the US and its allies for ramping up sanctions on Russia, claiming that the US-led pressure campaign has caused adverse impacts on the socioeconomic situation in western countries.

“Nothing can defeat the aim and will of the Russian people to pioneer their own path of development by themselves without being swayed by any pressure and blackmail,” the statement written by Kim Jong-gyu, president of the Korea-Russia Association for Promotion of Exchange and Cooperation, read.

“We send our full strong support to and show solidarity for the struggle of the Russian government and people to stand up to the US racket of anachronistic sanctions and pressure.”

(dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)


14. Yoon's symbolic in-office interviews put on pause. Why?


Give him a chance. He will get better at this. Do not be afraid of criticism. Be transparent. Be a man of the people. Talk to the press without fear. Make a gaff? Just recover from it and move on. Talk to the press and you have a chance at shaping the narrative. Avoid the press and you cede influence and any opportunity to have a say in the narrative.



Yoon's symbolic in-office interviews put on pause. Why?
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · July 11, 2022
Presidential office says it is due to coronavirus resurge, but critics blame his unprepared remarks
Published : Jul 11, 2022 - 14:16 Updated : Jul 11, 2022 - 20:18
President Yoon Suk-yeol answers reporters’ questions when he goes to the presidential office building in Yongsan, Seoul, on Friday. (Yonhap)


President Yoon Suk-yeol‘s symbolic efforts to communicate with the press every morning have been temporarily suspended. The presidential office said the halt is due to coronavirus resurge, but some critics say the recent plunge in Yoon’s approval ratings and his unprepared remarks could have affected the decision.

On Monday, Yoon went to his office without talking to the press for the first time since his inauguration.

The presidential office said, “It is inevitable to adjust the operation due to confirmed patients in the press corps. Considering the spread of COVID-19, the timing and method of operation will be decided again.”

Yoon‘s interviews were conducted by answering reporters’ questions without a script for about two to three minutes on the way to work every morning -- referred to as “doorstepping” by the Korean media, though both sides have sought out the encounters.

It was a symbolic move by the new government to “strengthen communication” with the media. Initially, his communication efforts, which were different from the previous presidents, were highly praised.

However, Yoon‘s ad-lib, unfiltered remarks on his feelings and comparisons to the previous administration have at times caused controversy.

Last week, when asked about the “failure of his personnel appointments,” he responded angrily, saying, “Have you seen such great people nominated by the previous administration?” He immediately added, “Next question.”

According to a recent survey by the Korea Society Opinion Institute at the request of TBS, 47.3 percent of the respondents -- the largest portion -- said controversies were raised during these encounters because “he was not ready when he answered.”

Political commentator Park Chang-hwan said he sees these impromptu interviews as the best tool Yoon has.

“For a president who narrowly wins the election and has a small political base against a parliament dominated by the opposition party, it could be the best tool to capture public attention,” Park said.

“However, despite being a useful tool, his unfiltered words -- saying he doesn’t care about the public‘s opinion and criticizing the previous administration -- have turned the public against him.”

For Yoon to use these interviews to their full effect, he must prepare his remarks more carefully and have spokespeople make corrections and additions when needed, the commentator said.

The presidential office, however, denied such views, stressing that the halt is due to COVID-19.

“We decided (to cancel them) because the safety of the people staying in the building was more important,” said a senior official of the presidential office on the condition of anonymity.

“If the presidential office responded incorrectly and the spread was strengthened, the criticism of us would be heavier,” the official said. “We know the possibility of many misunderstandings, but we made a difficult decision in a hurry.”



By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)


15. Tours to Panmunjom to resume July 12


​One tour a day for up to 40 people? I seem to recall in the past there were more than one tour per day.
Tours to Panmunjom to resume July 12
korea.stripes.com · July 9, 2022


BeFM News
July 9, 2022

Tours to the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom will resume in mid-July after months of suspension during the pandemic.
The unification ministry announced today that the tour program to the Joint Security Area in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) will restart from July 12.


The tour will be held once a day at 3 p.m. from Tuesday until Saturday. Up to 40 people may sign up for each time slot starting from this Friday through the Panmum Tour website.











De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Phone: 202-573-8647


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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