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PDF | Research | Week of Mar 6, 2023

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March 29, 2023 | Convene, 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York

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Quote of the Week

The status quo does not work for the US central bank right now.

– Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research, Barclays.

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Private Credit in Japan

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Glasses Half Full (First of a Series)

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Our friends at Lincoln International produce a superb report on private market insights from their valuations and opinions group. Derived from their database of hundreds of borrowers as part of their quarterly analyses for managers’ portfolio valuations, this data provides helpful guidance on a host of issues such as loan prices, purchase price multiples, and financing terms.


Of particular interest is the revenue and Ebitda performances of these largely privately held, middle market companies, quarter by quarter. Economists, market analysts, credit managers and investors are understandably keen for signs of any deterioration as a result of higher interest rates, inflation-related costs, and/or a general economic slowdown.


As our Chart of the Week highlights, over 80% of Lincoln’s portfolio companies demonstrated higher sales last year than 2021. Less than that, about two-thirds, reported improved cash flows...

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Chart of the Week

Growing, Not Slowing

Companies are reporting better revenues and cash flows at different speeds.

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Source: Lincoln Proprietary Database

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / S&P Global Market Intelligence

PDI Picks

An ESG journey still in its infancy

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Private debt and ESG don’t have a long history together, but there are signs of much-needed progress being made...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US primary institutional yields

are averaging 9.57% in 1Q23

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Average primary institutional yields have flattened in the last two quarters after soaring in 3Q22. At 9.57% so far in 1Q23, the average first-lien institutional yield, assuming a three-year term to repayment...

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Contact: Diana Diquez/ Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

Q4 recovery in private debt fundraising

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A quarter ago, private debt fundraising numbers were “poised for a down year,” according to the guy typing this sentence. At the time, about $130 billion had closed in new private debt funds, compared to $228 billion...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

Covenant Trends 

Distribution of MFN Maturity Carveout Horizons

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper
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DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Jumbo outstandings climb to $118B

with Cotiviti’s new record deal

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Cotiviti’s $5.5 billion credit raises outstanding jumbo loan volume to $118 billion, as tracked by KBRA DLD. That figure includes incremental debt for existing jumbo issuers, defined as those with private loans of...

Contact: Kelly Thompson /Direct Lending Deals

Private Debt Intelligence

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Investor demand for private debt unabated in 2022

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Despite the turbulent macro environment, investors have remained committed to private debt for its ability to deliver resilient real returns in the face of inflation and an uncertain rate environment...

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Contact: Valerie Kor / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index and BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Effective Yield

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Contact: Hema Oza / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

Select Deals in the Market

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.